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September 2024

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A 10-year-old boy attending a Japanese school in southern China has died after being stabbed on his way to class on Wednesday, according to Tokyo’s foreign minister, in the second knife attack near a Japanese school in the country in recent months.

The boy was attacked by a man about 200 meters (650 feet) from the gates of the Japanese school in Shenzhen, a tech-hub metropolis home to many Japanese businesses, according to China’s foreign ministry.

A 44-year-old suspect was apprehended at the scene and taken into custody, police in the city said in a statement.

Japanese and Chinese authorities did not specify the nationality of the victim. But Japanese nationality is required for enrollment at the Shenzhen Japanese School, according to its website.

“The fact that such a despicable act was committed against a child on his way to school is truly regrettable,” Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa told reporters Thursday.

“We take this incident extremely seriously, and we have once again requested that the Chinese side ensure the safety of Japanese nationals.”

The attack took place on a sensitive date, the anniversary of the “918” incident in 1931, when Japanese soldiers blew up a Japanese-owned railway in northeast China in a pretext to capture the region.

The emotionally charged day is commemorated in China as the start of Japan’s invasion, with state media and officials urging the public to never forget the national humiliation.

Chinese authorities did not mention the motive for Wednesday’s attack. But nationalism, xenophobia and anti-Japanese sentiment are on the rise in the country, often fanned by state media.

In June, a Chinese man wounded a Japanese woman and her child in a stabbing attack in front of a school bus in Suzhou, eastern China. A Chinese bus attendant who tried to intervene later died of her injuries.

Following that attack, Japan’s foreign ministry told Japanese schools to review their safety measures, Kamikawa said.

Ahead of the 918 anniversary, “we had just made a request to the Chinese foreign ministry to take thorough measures to ensure the safety of Japanese schools, so we are extremely disappointed that this incident occurred in this situation,” she added.

At a regular news conference Wednesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said the case was being investigated.

“China will continue to take effective measures to protect the safety of all foreigners in China,” he added.

Public attacks against foreigners had been rare in China, but a series of high-profile stabbings have raised concerns in recent months.

Two weeks before the Japanese mother and child were attacked in Suzhou, four American college instructors were stabbed by a Chinese man at a public park in Jilin in the northeast, after he bumped into one of them, according to Chinese police.

China’s foreign ministry has described both attacks as isolated incidents and did not release further information on the motives.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Lebanon is reeling after facing deadly back-to-back attacks targeting Hezbollah members – with pagers simultaneously exploding across the country on Tuesday, then walkie-talkies detonating in a similar fashion on Wednesday.

Panic, fear and grief have now gripped the country, with questions swirling about how the attacks could have been carried out, where the devices came from, and whether this latest development could plunge the Middle East into a wider regional conflict.

At least 22 people, including children, have died so far from the two attacks, which Lebanese officials have blamed on Israel. Thousands more are injured – many maimed and in critical condition after communications devices exploded in their pockets or in their face.

While Israel has refused to publicly comment, it warned on Wednesday that a “new era” of war was beginning, appearing to tacitly acknowledge its role.

Here’s what we know so far.

What happened, when and where?

The first attack came on Tuesday afternoon when pagers exploded at the same time across several parts of Lebanon – including the capital Beirut, and in several towns in the central Beqaa valley, strongholds for the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.

Videos showed the bloody aftermath on streets and public spaces. In one CCTV video, a man was picking out fruit in a supermarket when an explosion detonated – leaving him groaning in pain on the ground, clutching his lower abdomen as panic breaks out around him.

Lebanese hospitals were quickly overwhelmed, with limited staff attending to hundreds of bandaged and bleeding patients – some of whom had to lie on the floor as more of the injured arrived.

The second attack took place on Wednesday, with walkie-talkies detonating in the suburbs of Beirut and in the south of the country.

One witness who cannot be named for security reasons described seeing a man’s hands blown off by an exploding walkie-talkie while attending a Hezbollah funeral. Fires broke out in dozens of homes, stores, and vehicles, with videos showing smoke billowing on chaotic streets.

Why would Israel target Lebanon now?

Hezbollah and Israel have been at conflict for decades – but the two have ramped up their cross-border attacks on each other since last October when the war in Gaza began, following Palestinian militant group Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel.

Hezbollah is part of a larger Iran-led axis across the Middle East spanning Yemen, Syria, Gaza and Iraq that has engaged in a simmering conflict with Israel and its allies over the past 10 months.

The axis has said they will continue striking Israeli targets as long as the war in Gaza goes on, rebranding themselves as a “supportive front” for Palestinians in the strip, as described by a senior Hezbollah leader.

Israel may have chosen this timing for the attacks because it believed Hezbollah had discovered the pagers’ capability – making it a “use it or lose it” moment, said an Israeli source familiar with national security.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may also have wanted to shore up domestic support. Officials and residents from the northern region have become increasingly vocal about the need to return to their homes after being evacuated due to attacks, piling pressure on the government to act against the threat of Hezbollah’s rockets from southern Lebanon.

On Tuesday, Israel made it a new war objective to return Israel’s northern residents to their homes near the border – which has long been understood to be a political necessity.

How did it happen?

There are still many questions on how Israel might have carried out its attacks this week – and where the devices that detonated came from.

Hezbollah is highly secretive, and its leader has previously urged families to dump their cell phones to avoid infiltration from Israeli and US spyware. That’s why so many Hezbollah members and their families rely instead on low-tech wireless communication devices like pagers.

Damaged pagers in Lebanon bore the name of a Taiwanese manufacturer – but the company said the devices were instead made and sold by a Hungarian company in Budapest.

Hungarian authorities denied this, however, saying the Budapest firm was a “trading intermediary” with no manufacturing sites in the country.

Making things even stranger, the address for the company’s office is in a residential area – where other people in the building said they hardly saw people coming to work, and that the Budapest company had never physically been to the building.

Meanwhile, Lebanon said the walkie-talkies that exploded were a discontinued model made by Japanese firm ICOM.

The devices were not supplied by a recognized agent, were not officially licensed and had not been vetted by the security services, Lebanese authorities said. ICOM said the model was discontinued a decade ago, and it could not determine whether the ones used in Lebanon were counterfeit or shipped from its company.

How have Hezbollah, Israel and the world responded?

Hezbollah has vowed retribution, warning on Tuesday that Israel will “definitely receive a fair punishment for this sinful assault, both in ways that are expected and unexpected.”

The Lebanese government also condemned the attack as “criminal Israeli aggression” and a violation of their national sovereignty.

It’s less clear what capacity Hezbollah might have to launch a counterattack if many of its members are wounded and key communication methods are no longer reliable.

Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant appeared to reference the attacks on Wednesday during a visit to an air force base – praising the “excellent achievements” of the military and intelligence agency.

“We are at the beginning of a new era in this war and we need to adapt ourselves,” Gallant said.

It appears US officials were largely in the dark until reports emerged of the explosions, according to three sources familiar with the matter. Israeli officials notified the US that it was going to carry out an operation in Lebanon on Tuesday but did not give any details about what they were planning, the sources said.

The UN rights chief condemned the attacks, calling them a violation of international humanitarian law and urging an “independent, thorough and transparent investigation.” International NGO Human Rights Watch echoed his remarks, saying the inquiry should be “prompt” and “urgently conducted.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The suspected attacks against the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah are the latest in a series of covert operations that Israel’s government refuses to acknowledge but which are alleged to have been carried out by Israeli operatives.

Munich massacre response

Israel’s alleged history of planting explosives in telecommunication devices goes back as far as 1972, as part of its revenge for the killing of 11 Israelis, including athletes, at the Munich Olympics, which was carried out by the Palestinian militant group Black September.

In response, Israel launched “Operation Wrath of God” and spent years tracking down those involved in the Munich Massacre.

Mahmoud Hamshari, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) representative in Paris, was among those targeted. Unidentified operatives reported to be linked to Israeli intelligence broke into his home and planted a bomb in his phone, before another person – posing as an Italian journalist – arranged a telephone interview with Hamshari. When he picked up the call and identified himself, the bomb was activated remotely.

The ‘engineer’

Tuesday’s attacks reminded many of the 1996 killing of Yahya Ayyash, Hamas’ chief bombmaker known as “the engineer,” responsible for killing dozens of Israelis.

Ayyash was killed in Gaza after his cell phone, which had been packed with 50 grams (1.76 ounces) of explosives, blew up near his head. After his killing, dozens of Israelis were killed in four retaliatory suicide bombings.

Iranian nuclear scientists

Since 2010, five Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed in foreign-linked assassinations, as Israel tries to prevent its greatest adversary from developing nuclear weapons. In August 2015, at the height of the assassinations, then-Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon cryptically told the German magazine Der Spiegel that he could not be held responsible “for the life expectancy of Iranian scientists.”

Experts believe Israel and the United States were responsible for deploying the complex computer virus called Stuxnet that destroyed centrifuges at an Iranian nuclear facility in 2010.

Iranian officials have said they believe the cyberattack, which targeted centrifuges including those at the Natanz and Bushehr nuclear plants, originated in Israel and the United States, but neither country has commented on the malware’s origin. Notably, Stuxnet was one of the first times a cyberattack had a manifestation outside cyberspace, causing the centrifuges to spin out of control unnoticed. The pager attack is seemingly another instance of a cyberattack causing a physical consequence, unlike stealing money from a bank account or taking down a website.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was Iran’s chief nuclear scientist, was assassinated east of Tehran in 2020 by a remote-controlled machine gun operating out of a nearby Nissan. Iranian officials said the weapon had used artificial intelligence and facial recognition to detect Fakhrizadeh and open fire, before the car, reportedly packed with explosives, self-destructed.

Top Iranian officials blamed Israel for the assassination. Israel did not comment.

Human intelligence

While many of these assassinations have a sci-fi aspect, experts stressed that each operation requires high levels of human intelligence that raised questions about the security protocols of Israel’s adversaries. After Fakhrizadeh’s assassination, intelligence analysts stressed that a country or actor would still have had to smuggle in specialist equipment to stage the operation.

After this week’s events, some speculated that the explosions could have been caused by an Israeli cybersecurity breach that caused the lithium batteries in the pagers to overheat and detonate.

Kennedy said it was more likely that Israel had human operatives in Hezbollah who were able to intercept the supply chain and tamper with the devices. “The pagers would have been implanted with explosives and likely only to detonate when a certain message was received,” he said.

The New York Times reported Tuesday that Israel had hidden explosives inside a batch of pagers ordered from Taiwanese manufacturer Gold Apollo and destined for Hezbollah, and that a switch was embedded to detonate them remotely, according to unnamed American and other officials briefed on the operation.

The Iranian government and Hamas say Israel carried out the assassination. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

On-Balance Volume (OBV): A Detailed Guide

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) evaluates market buying and selling intensity by accumulating volume during up days and subtracting volume on down days. Let’s examine how it works in detail.

What Is On-Balance Volume?

On Balance Volume is a powerful technical analysis tool introduced by Joseph Granville. It helps traders understand the relationship between price movement and daily trading volume.

OBV is a cumulative indicator, adding the daily volume to a running total when the closing price is higher and subtracting it when the closing price is lower. To calculate OBV, add or subtract the daily volume from the previous OBV based on whether the price increased or decreased. 

Granville emphasised OBV as a key to stock market profits, as it reflects buying and selling pressure and helps confirm the prevailing trend. Understanding this indicator can be crucial for predicting price movement and making informed decisions in the stock market.

On-Balance Volume Chart Example

What Does the OBV Indicator Tell You?

The On Balance Volume is an indicator that accumulates the volumes of a value according to the direction of the price variation. It allows you to assess buying or selling pressure through volumes. 

Thus, this indicator allows you to measure a trend’s strength or weakness and identify the risks of a trend reversal. The On Balance Volume is based on the principle that prices represent the bullish or bearish consensus on the value, and volumes represent the participants’ commitment. 

A rising OBV shows that buyers are very strong and vice versa if the indicator falls. As Dr Alexander Elder, a renowned trader and author, points out: “When the OBV does not take the same direction as the prices, collective emotions are not in phase with the collective consensus.”

“A crowd will follow its heart more easily than its reason. This is the reason why changes in volume direction often precede price changes.”

Calculating On-Balance Volume

How to calculate the balance volume? This indicator calculates a ratio between the variation of volumes and prices. We can calculate it by adding the volumes of the day when the price rises and subtracting the volumes of the day when the price falls.

The OBV accumulates the volumes as follows:

  • When the value closes upwards, all the volume of the day is considered as an upward volume. The volume of the day is added to the previous cumulative total.
  • When the value closes downwards, all the volume of the day is considered as a downward volume. The volume of the day is subtracted from the previous cumulative total.

Formula for On-Balance-Volume

The calculation formula is as follows:

Upward closing:

OBV = OBV[n-1] + Volume

Downward closing:

OBV = OBV[n-1] – Volume

If prices have not changed:

OBV = OBV[n-1]

This is a cumulative indicator since we calculate it by adding the volumes of the day when prices rise and subtracting the volumes of the day when prices fall from the value of the indicator in n-1.

How to Use On Balance Volume  Indicator in daily trading?

Let’s take an example:

  • If the daily volume is 1000 shares and the closing price is higher than the previous day’s, 1000 is added to the OBV.
  • If the daily volume is 800 units and the closing price is lower than the previous day’s, then 800 is subtracted from the On Balance Volume.
  • If the daily volume is 500 units and the closing price equals the previous day’s, then the OBV remains unchanged.

On Balance Volume in Technical Analysis

A rising OBV shows where the market’s savvy investors are located. When the crowd follows the price movement, the OBV and the value will rise together. On the other hand, if prices vary before the OBV, we have a non-confirmation. Non-confirmations occur when the market is at its extremes.

If, in an uptrend, the OBV becomes bearish, this means that there were much larger volumes during the downtrend sessions than during the uptrend sessions, even if there were more uptrend sessions. There is, therefore, a high probability of a downward reversal.

Conversely, if the On Balance Volume becomes bullish in a downtrend, there were much larger volumes during the uptrend sessions than during the downtrend sessions, even if there were more downtrend sessions. The probability of an upward reversal then becomes very high.

The graphical reading of the On Balance Volume can be associated with the detection of divergence between the price evolution and that of the indicator.

It is quite possible to calculate a moving average of the OBV by using the crossings of the two curves between them. When the moving average crosses the OBV downwards, it represents a sell signal; otherwise, it is a buy signal.

The logic behind this system is as follows: volumes precede the trend. When prices are stable or correct the trend, a volume increase allows us to anticipate the beginnings of the trend’s resumption. Similarly, at the end of a trend, we theoretically see a volume decrease before prices fall.

OBV vs Accumulation/Distribution

On-balance volume and the accumulation/distribution line both serve as momentum indicators that leverage volume to forecast the actions of “smart money.” However, their methods diverge significantly. To calculate on-balance volume, add the volume from days when prices rise and subtract the volume from days when prices fall.

In contrast, the accumulation/distribution (Acc/Dist) line employs a different approach. Its formula considers the current price’s position within its recent trading range and multiplies this by the volume of that specific period, allowing it to provide insights without becoming overly complex. Thus, while both indicators focus on volume, their calculations and implications differ substantially.

Limitations of OBV

A drawback of the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is that it acts as a leading indicator. It can generate forecasts but offers limited insight into past market actions based on its signals. 

This characteristic makes it susceptible to false signals. To mitigate this, we can add lagging indicators. Incorporating a moving average line with the OBV can help identify breakouts. If the OBV experiences a breakout simultaneously with price movements, it can validate the breakout. 

Additionally, it’s important to exercise caution with the OBV, as a significant volume spike in a single day can distort the indicator for an extended period. 

For example, unexpected earnings reports, changes in index membership, or large institutional trades can lead to significant fluctuations in the indicator. However, these sudden volume changes may not necessarily reflect an ongoing trend.

The post On-Balance Volume (OBV) in Trading Explained appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

Reli Stock: Key Analysis And Forecasts To Note

Have you wondered lately if it is worth investing in the Reli Stock? What is the fuss around it in the stock market where it seems like now and then, a stock option gets in the spotlight? And why has Rally Stock become so sought after by many enthusiasts?

First, we are talking about the Reliance Global Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: RELI) company encompassing the natural growth of the RELI Exchange Agency Partner Network and acquiring low-risk, high-growth, complementary.

But is it worth investing in this stock? What is Reli Stock forecast according to the latest statistics? Let’s get all the information, but to focus on the company first, shall we?

Understanding Reliance Global Group Company

Reliance Global Group refers to a specific InsurTech company redefining the traditional insurance agency model.

Through RELI Exchange, they leverage proprietary technologies like Automation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to increase the productivity of our agency partners.

Their growth strategy is centred on the organic expansion of the RELI Exchange Agency Partner Network, meaning that they’re expanding their product range.

This company is also responsible for creating specific strategic investment decisions. The main focus is to achieve supporting and high-growth insurance and related businesses.

What Is Their Number One Focus?

As they work to enhance their market cap, they focus on maintaining a solid history of operational management, including overseeing 10 agencies with approximately $15 million in revenue.

They’re dedicated to investing in their professional team and providing the resources needed for success.

Reliance Global Group Companies

Here are all the following Reliance Global Group Companies that you need to know about:

  • Reli Exchange
  • 5 Minute Insure
  • J.P. Kush & Associates
  • US Benefits Alliance
  • Fortman Insurance Services
  • Medigap Healthcare
  • EBS Employee Benefits
  • SMIC
  • Altruis
  • UIS Agency LLC

So, before getting into the investment process and making the final decision, let’s get all the current statistics regarding it at the moment.

Reli Stock Price And Other Statistics

  • Current Price: $2.74
  • Price Forecast: $4.15 (51.26% increase)
  • Fear & Greed Index: 39 (Fear)
  • Sentiment: Neutral
  • Volatility: 15.05%
  • Green Days: 12 out of 30 (40%)
  • 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA): $3.06
  • 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA): $1.11
  • 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI): 57.42

RELI/USD 5-Day Chart

Reli Stock News: Get All The Information

According to the latest Reli stock news, in Q4 2024, Reliance Global Group, Inc. will present a top-notch Artificial Intelligence-driven Quote & Bind solution. That particular solution has also been forward-thinking with the latest technology for commercial insurance.

This special kind of tool has been integrated into the reliable RELI Exchange platform. It allows all of its devoted agents to both create and finalise quotes for various commercial policies. It includes Workers’ Compensation, General Liability and Cyber Liability.

The Quote & Bind feature is scheduled to refine agent capabilities by enabling real-time quotes and direct policy binding across multiple carriers via the RELI Exchange dashboard.

This particular promotion is primed to advance both revenue and efficiency. According to Ezra Beyman, who is the famous Chairman and CEO of Reliance, with this enchanting feature, agent commissions would be improved. Consequently, what’s also crucial to note, it will drive higher revenues for the company.

New Revenue Opportunities Are Offered

On the other hand, Moshe Fishman, who is the Director of Insurtech and Operations, stated that the feature would simplify the quoting process. Besides that, it offers additional revenue along with a single commercial policy potentially matching the commission of multiple homeowner policies.

Reliance Global Group company stays a prominent leader in InsurTech. It’s been utilising artificial intelligence to revolutionise the insurance industry.

What Is The Reli Stock Forecast?

Our forecast for RELI stock Nasdaq suggests a 51.26% increase. By September 9 this year, analysts predict a price of $4.15 per share. The particular sentiment is Neutral. The Fear & Greed Index is recorded at the 39 level, indicating fear.

In the past 30 days, RELI has had 12 out of 30 green days (40%) and a volatility of 15.05%. Since RELI is trading 33.89% below our forecast price, it could be a good time to buy.

Conclusion: Should You Buy or Sell RELI Stock?

Reliance Global (RELI) has a score of 5/10 in the market. That score suggests a particular “Hold” position. According to our experts’ analysis, it indicates that RELI stock has a -0.92% chance of outperforming the S&P 500 over the following three months.

The Reli stock forecasted price range means a highest estimate of $4.15 and a lowest of $2.74.

RELI shows strong growth potential with its focus on InsurTech innovations, but investors should remain cautious, as market volatility and neutral sentiment suggest a balanced approach. It’s a stock worth watching for future opportunities.

The post Reli Stock – Get All The Essential Analysis And Predictions appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

As of Tuesday, the CME’s FedWatch Tool gave a 67% chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut—way up from the 25-point cut everyone was betting on just days ago. A rate cut could send the price of gold soaring past its all-time high, so investors and goldbugs are on edge, waiting for the results of this week’s FOMC meeting.

Suppose the expected rate cuts do take place and gold price jumps. How high can the yellow metal soar? The tricky part is that these levels have no historical prices to gauge such a move.

Fundamental analysts are all over the place with their projections, leaving you more confused than informed. But don’t worry; there are technical tools you can use to gauge potential upside and keep an eye on any downside risks.

Using the ACP Fibonacci Extension Tool

Pull up a SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) chart in StockChartsACP. Using the annotation tool, draw a Fibonacci Retracement line from the February low to the May high. Click on the extensions in your settings to get price projections beyond the 0% to 100% measure. Also, be sure to check the extension levels you want to see.

This is what the chart should look like (see weekly chart of GLD below).

CHART 1. WEEKLY GOLD PRICE CHART. Setting your extension levels will help you get price projections for GLD.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

Here’s what to keep an eye on:

  • The 127.20% extension has already been met as profit-takers began selling their position.
  • If GLD continues to move higher, the next upside targets are $242.50 (138.20% Fib extension) and $252.70 (161.80% Fib extension).

These are your two intermediate-term targets. Anything above that is possible, but you’ll need to check the fundamentals and technicals before making new projections.

But what if prices dip? How do you measure the pullback to decide if it’s a good time to jump in or if it’s headed for a bigger drop—meaning you should wait it out?

To answer that, let’s shift to a daily SharpCharts view of GLD.

Using Quadrant Lines to Gauge a Pullback

CHART 2. DAILY GOLD PRICE CHART. Note the short-term and intermediate-term quadrant lines. However, don’t ignore the divergence between price movement and the Money Flow Index (MFI) in the top panel.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

The chart has two types of Quadrant Lines:

  • The blue Quadrant Lines measure the short-term price action.
  • The red Quadrant Lines measure the intermediate-term price action.

Not familiar with Quadrant Lines? In a nutshell, Quadrant Lines break down the high-low range into four sections. Think of them as a visual guide to see where prices stand within that range. Like Fibonacci retracements, they can spot potential reversals—a shallow 25% pullback might show strength, while a deeper 75% retracement could signal a potential reversal.

With this in mind, note the following:

  • Based on the short-term lines, the price of GLD can pull back to $231 without messing up the short-term trend, but, if price breaks below $228.50, that’s a different (and bearish) story.
  • The intermediate-term uptrend is still intact as long as GLD stays above $223, but, if it falls below $218, that trend’s out the window, too.

In terms of momentum:

  • Buying pressure continues to rise, based on the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF).
  • However, if you look at the Money Flow Index (MFI), which functions like a volume-weighted RSI, note the divergence between the MFI line and the price of GLD; this indicates the likelihood of a continued pullback (so watch those quadrant lines!).

At the Close

Predicting the price of gold beyond all-time highs is tough, but, if fundamental tools fall short, technicals can offer clarity—whether prices keep climbing or take a dip. As far as gold prices are concerned, watch GLD’s next moves closely and use Fibonacci Extensions and Quadrant Lines to help inform your setup.



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The broader stock market indexes are still in a holding pattern as investors await the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. Tuesday’s price action was a little like a “Whac-a-Mole” game for the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ). Both indexes poked above their downward-sloping trendlines (the Nasdaq’s line is steeper) but fell back below them by Tuesday’s close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), which hit an all-time high on Monday, also retreated, snapping its four-day up streak.

Small- and mid-cap stocks were Tuesday’s leaders, with the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index ($MID) up by 0.34% and the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index ($SML) up 0.60%. 

Turning to the Extended Factors Market Factors data panel on the StockCharts Dashboard, small-cap revenue (RWJ) and small-cap quality (XSHQ) ETFs were the biggest gainers. The Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Revenue ETF (RWJ) took the lead at the end of last week—we mentioned this in our weekly ChartWatchers newsletter—and continues gaining strength and momentum.

A Weekly Perspective

It’s worth breaking down the price action in RWJ before Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, starting with the weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF INVESCO S&P SMALLCAP 600 REVENUE ETF. RWJ has been trading within a range since early 2021. It’s getting ready to break out of the range, but whether it does will depend on how the Fed’s decision appeals to investors.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

RWJ has been in a trading range since early 2021 (blue rectangle). During that time, investors gravitated toward mega-cap Tech stocks while other asset classes, such as small-cap stocks, were left behind. But that could change depending on what the Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday. Interest rate cuts would benefit small-cap stocks. That RWJ is trading above its trading range indicates that investors are hopeful the Fed will decide on a half-point rate cut.

The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) in the top panel is at 89, which indicates that RWJ is technically strong. A rate cut could increase this score if investors continue accumulating this ETF. The relative strength index (RSI) is stalling between 50 and 70. A break above 70 would be positive for RWJ, whereas a fall below 50 would show that interest in the ETF is weakening.

But what if the Fed decides on a quarter-point cut instead of the half-point the market expects? Will investors get disappointed and sell off their small-cap stocks? Remember, the stock market can change quickly for no sound reason. This is why it’s best to map out bearish and bullish scenarios ahead of a volatile trading day.

Let’s examine RWJ’s daily chart to understand the two scenarios better.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF RWJ. The ETF must close above its last high of $45.39, and the MACD should reflect stronger buying pressure.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

A series of higher highs will confirm an uptrend. If RWJ closes above its last high of $45.39, it could break the slightly bearish trend the ETF has been in for the last month and a half.

The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator, which is also trending lower, shows early signs of increasing bullish pressure. The MACD line has just crossed over the signal line, and the MACD histogram is slightly above the zero line. But it must be much more prominent to confirm a bullish move in RWJ.

If bullish momentum kicks in on Wednesday after the Fed makes its interest rate decision, an ideal entry point would be at $45.50, around its July 31 close. If the Fed’s decision disappoints and doesn’t favor small-cap stocks, then focus on which asset classes outperform from the Market Factors panel in the StockCharts Dashboard.

Closing Bell

If it’s time for small-cap stocks to shine, you could enter the bull run early. But remember, this is a new all-time high for RWJ, so if you enter a position, keep an eye on momentum. As long as momentum keeps the ETF rising, you can ride out your position, but if you have made a respectable profit and detect a slowdown, be prepared to exit your positions. There’s no reason to be married to an investment.



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Only a month after the discovery of the second largest diamond ever recorded, Lucara Diamond (TSX:LUC,OTC Pink:LUCRF) has announced the recovery of another significant stone from its Karowe mine in Botswana.

The new find is 1,094 carats compared to the massive 2,942 carat rough diamond uncovered by Lucara in August, solidifying Karowe’s reputation as one of the world’s most prolific sources of large diamonds.

The rough diamond is the sixth stone over 1,000 carats that Lucara has unearthed from the mine. According to the company, the EMPKS ore type at Karowe’s South Lobe hosts these large, high-value stones.

The company said the newly recovered 1,094 carat diamond will be polished through its partnership with HB Antwerp, a collaboration responsible for processing several of Lucara’s previous large stones. The August discovery is slated for evaluation and processing as well, with both stones expected to yield significant returns once polished.

Previous collaborations with HB Antwerp have resulted in polished diamonds worth over US$13 million.

‘The recovery of this exceptional 1,094 carat diamond is a testament to Karowe’s remarkable potential and further validates our investment in the underground expansion project,’ said Lucara President and CEO William Lamb.

“These continued discoveries of large, high-value diamonds demonstrate the consistent quality of our resource and its ability to deliver substantial returns,” he added in a Sunday (September 15) press release.

In addition to Lucara’s recent 1,094 and 2,942 carat discoveries at Karowe, other notable recoveries include the 1,758 carat Sewelô diamond, discovered in 2019, and the 1,109 carat Lesedi La Rona diamond, found in 2015.

Lucara’s use of cutting-edge technology has been key in these recoveries. Since implementing X-ray transmission technology in 2017, it has been able to detect large diamonds while minimizing the risk of damage during extraction.

Botswana, where Karowe is located, is a key player in the global diamond production industry. The country is the largest miner of diamonds by value and is second only to Russia in total production.

Lucara’s ongoing recoveries further bolster Botswana’s standing, particularly as the government seeks to ensure more profits from diamond mining remain in the country. The nation has recently proposed new regulations requiring mining companies to sell a 24 percent stake to local investors unless the state chooses to take the stake itself.

Furthermore, Botswana has been working to increase its influence in the industry, particularly through negotiations with De Beers, the world’s largest diamond producer, through a new 10 year agreement signed in 2023.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) has introduced a voluntary retirement scheme for employees at its Cobre Panama mine as it awaits government action on whether operations will be able to resume.

This comes after the mine’s closure in November 2023 due to a ruling from Panama’s Supreme Court that declared the company’s mining contract unconstitutional following months of environmental protests.

Reuters reported on Monday (September 16) that sources familiar with the matter say First Quantum has offered the voluntary retirement option as part of its efforts to manage the uncertainties surrounding the mine’s future.

Employees must decide whether to accept the retirement package, which would take effect in January 2025, or continue working reduced hours. The window for workers to make their decision is set to close at the end of September.

The closure of Cobre Panama has significantly reduced its workforce. From a high of 6,000 employees, approximately 900 workers remain at the site. While a small number of workers have already accepted the voluntary retirement offer, most are opting to work with reduced hours, according to one of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Michael Camacho, who represents the Panama Mining Workers Union, confirmed the retirement scheme’s existence and said some workers have opted into it. He also noted that First Quantum has not yet received clear guidelines from Panama’s government on what safety measures would need to be implemented for operations to restart.

The new Panamanian administration, led by President Jose Raul Mulino, has said the mine’s future will not be addressed until early 2025, leaving First Quantum and its employees in a state of prolonged uncertainty.

Cobre Panama is a major asset for First Quantum, accounting for a substantial portion of the company’s copper output while playing a key role in its efforts to manage its debt. Financial pressures have grown as 130,000 metric tons of copper concentrate remain stockpiled at the mine, awaiting a government decision on whether it can be exported.

The company is also pursuing compensation for the suspension of operations at the site.

First Quantum has invested approximately US$10 billion in developing the mine, which has proven and probable reserves of around 3 billion metric tons, over the course of a decade.

The potential to resume operations remains crucial to the company’s long-term financial stability, as well as to Panama’s economy, as Cobre Panama has contributed an estimated 5 percent to the nation’s GDP.

The uncertainty surrounding Cobre Panama has also drawn attention from copper investors. The mine represents about 1 percent of global output of the red metal, and its closure has brought deficit concerns forward.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Speaking ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated September meeting, John Reade, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, shared his thoughts on where gold is in the current cycle.

‘Coming up to what is widely expected to be the start of a US rate-cutting cycle, ironically you could actually say that gold is early in the cycle. Gold typically performs pretty well when rates are cut, and if those rate cuts lead to weakness in the US dollar, which they certainly might, that could be a double tail wind helping the metal from here,’ he explained.

‘So this cycle’s been quite different, and that makes answering (the) question quite tricky.’

When asked about gold price drivers, Reade said emerging markets been top of mind this year.

However, in his view a shift could now be taking place, ‘As emerging markets are slowing somewhat, and interest rates are starting to come lower in the west, we might see a reversion to what is typically seen as the driver of gold — so slavishly following the US dollar and moves in interest rates and interest rate expectations,’ Reade said

‘I’ll reiterate — I think it’s going to be western macroeconomic factors that probably take the lead in determining gold’s direction for the balance of this year and into 2025,’ he emphasized during the conversation.

Watch the interview above for more of his thoughts on gold demand and price factors.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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