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September 14, 2024

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This week’s stock market action may have caught many investors by surprise. After last week’s massive selloff, this week’s turnaround reignited investor enthusiasm in equities. Large-cap growth stocks were the leading asset class in the early part of the trading week, and, by Friday, the clear leaders were the mid- and large-cap stocks.

This week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) showed that inflation has cooled, which means the Fed will probably cut interest rates. More optimistic is the thinking that there may be more than the 25 basis points (bps) we were expecting last week.

Broader Market Index Price Action

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) closed higher for the week. The S&P 500 and the Dow are trading close to their August highs, but the Nasdaq has some catching up to do. In Nasdaq’s defense, it was the hardest hit among the three.

The Nasdaq’s daily chart gives a clearer picture of where the index stands now, technically speaking, battling against resistance from the downtrend line. A break above this line would mean the bulls are still in the lead, but a break above the August high would indicate bulls are charging to the finish line.

FIGURE 1. WILL THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE BREAK THROUGH ITS DOWNTREND? A break above the downtrend would be bullish for the tech-heavy index, but a more confirming move would be a break above its August high.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If you participated in the “dip buying” this week, the resistance of the downward trendline is one to watch carefully. And if you missed buying on the September dip, a break above the trendline should be an early signal to prepare to add positions, but waiting for the index to break above its August high would be wiser.

There are a couple of factors to keep in mind. One is that it’s still September, a seasonally weak month for stocks. The second is there’s an FOMC meeting next week. Investors expect an interest rate cut to be announced, but how much will the Fed cut rates? The odds of a 50 basis point cut have risen since last week; as of this writing, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 bps cut is 51%. The probability of a 50 bps is 49%. These percentages drastically differ from last week’s odds, when the odds for a 25 bps rate cut were above 70%.

The stock market is acting like it expects a 50 bps cut. If the Fed cuts 25 bps, though, the market could be disappointed, so tread carefully. A lot is riding on the Fed’s decision on Wednesday.

Small Cap Revival

The S&P Small Cap Index ($SML) started gaining traction this week, surging on Friday. Looking at the ratio chart of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), we can see small-cap stocks are beginning to gain strength, but still have some work to do before outpacing the bigger stocks.

FIGURE 2. SMALL CAPS VS. LARGE CAP STOCKS. Small caps surged this week, but they still have more to go before catching up with their bigger cousins.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Small caps surged in July when inflation fears were in the rear-view mirror, but fell after concerns of a recession surfaced. Now that interest rate cuts are on the table, small-cap stocks may see more upside. A break above the upward-sloping 50-day simple moving average (SMA) could give IWM a further boost.

What’s Happening With Precious Metals?

Gold prices hit an all-time high on Friday, riding on interest rate cut expectations. The daily chart of the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) below shows price breaking above a consolidation area, gapping up, and hitting an all-time high.

FIGURE 3. GOLD PRICES HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH. After breaking out of a consolidation pattern, gold prices gapped up and surged.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes. Why the rise in gold in tandem with a rise in equities? Investors want to hedge their positions in case the Fed makes a surprise move.

Silver prices also moved higher, as seen in the chart of the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV). A break above the downward-sloping trendline and Friday’s large gap up are positive for silver traders. If silver prices continue to rise, the series of lower highs could be behind the white metal—for a while, anyway.

FIGURE 4. SILVER SURGES. SLV breaks above its downward-sloping trendline. Whether this upward move will continue rests on how much the Fed cuts rates in next week’s FOMC meeting.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The only known market-moving event next week is—you guessed it—the FOMC meeting. Expectations of a 50 bps cut are rising. How much will the Fed cut? We’ll know soon.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 closed up 4.02% for the week, at 5626.02, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.60% for the week at 41,393.78; Nasdaq Composite closed up 5.95% for the week at 17683.98
  • $VIX down 26.01% for the week, closing at 15.56
  • Best performing sector for the week: Technology
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Insmed Inc. (INSM); FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI); Applovin Corp (APP); Cava Group (CAVA); SharkNinja, Inc. (SN)

On the Radar Next Week

  • August Retail Sales
  • August Housing Starts
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • FOMC Economic Projections
  • August Existing Home Sales

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

While the S&P 500 finished the week once again testing new all-time highs around 5650, the Nasdaq 100 remains rangebound in a symmetrical triangle or “coil” pattern.  While this pattern does not necessarily suggest a potential next move for the QQQ, it did lead me to think about four different scenarios that could play out over the next six to eight weeks.

The chart of the QQQ looks a lot like the chart of Nvidia (NVDA), with a clear consolidation pattern of lower highs and higher lows. Other leading growth names like Meta Platforms (META) have failed to signal an upside breakout to give an “all clear” signal for the bulls. And defensive sectors continue to thrive, even though the S&P 500 finished in the green every day this week.

Today, we’ll lay out four potential outcomes for the Nasdaq 100. As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario.

By the way, we conducted a similar exercise for the Nasdaq 100 back in June, and you won’t believe which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment on my channels and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the QQQ achieving a new all-time high over the next six to eight weeks.

Option 1: The Very Bullish Scenario

What if NVDA breaks out to the upside, META finally pops above $550, and the rest of the Magnificent 7 stocks go right back to a leadership role? That would certainly drive the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to their own new highs in the next month or so. If Powell’s press conference next week renews investor optimism and the market prices in a perfect soft landing for the economy, we could perhaps see this play out.

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

If the Mag7 names continue to struggle and fail to breakout, but other sectors like financials and industrials surge higher, we could get a more mildly bullish rally here. That would mean the QQQ remains below its 2024 high, but stockpickers rejoice as plenty of opportunities appear outside of the growth sectors.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

What if the Fed meeting does not go as well next week, and investors start thinking recession again? Defensive sectors have certainly been showing strength in recent months, and it feels like it would not take much to reverse the signs of optimism I’ve observed over the last week. Bonds outperform stocks as investors get defensive, and suddenly we’re all hoping for an October rally to overcome the bearish sentiment.

Dave’s vote: 45%

Option 4: The Super Bearish Scenario

You always need a doomsday scenario, and this last option would involve a big time “risk off” move for stocks. Growth stocks rotate lower, and risk-off plays like gold shine brightest as the QQQ retests the August low around $425. Perhaps Powell fails to boost investors’ confidence and the “goldilocks scenario” for the economy seems like a distant memory.

Dave’s vote: 15%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

In this StockCharts TV video, Mary Ellen reviews the broader markets and highlights pockets of strength that are starting to trend higher. She also shares add-on plays to the move into home construction stocks, and shows key characteristics needed to confirm a downtrend reversal in select stocks.

This video originally premiered September 13, 2024. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen on StockCharts TV.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Whipsaws and losing trades are part of the process for trend-following strategies. These are expenses, and simply unavoidable. Over time, trend-following strategies will catch a few big trends and these profits will more than cover the expenses. Let’s look at signals and backtest results for the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR).

The chart below shows the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) with the Percent above MA indicator in the lower window. This indicator measures the percentage difference between the 5 and 200 day SMAs. I use +3% and -3% for signal thresholds to reduce whipsaws. A whipsaw (WS) is a short-lived signal that does not develop into a trend and results in loss. Thus, an uptrend signals with a cross above +3% and remains in force until a cross below -3%. On the chart below, the green lines show uptrend signals since 2020 and red lines show downtrend signals. The blue WS marks the whipsaws. Note that Percent above MA is one of 11 indicators in the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin.

 

CIBR started trading in July 2015 and did not have a 200-day SMA until April 2016. The chart above shows four bullish trend signals (green lines) since 2020, but we can backtest to 2016 for a more complete picture. There were just 7 trend signals since April 2016 with four producing winning trades and three resulting in losses. This includes the current open trade, which started with the trend signal in May 2023. The average gain for the winners was 43% and the average loss for the losers was 6%. Winners generate gross revenues, while whipsaws and losing trades are expenses. Trading is profitable as long as the profits are bigger than the expenses. This simple trend-following strategy generated a Compound Annual Return of 10.5% since 2016. Not bad for just 7 trades.

Stocks were hit hard the first week of September and came roaring back this past week. In our comprehensive weekly report and video (here), we featured a bullish continuation pattern in SPY, a contracting range in QQQ and bullish charts for ETFs related to fintech, cybersecurity, housing medical devices and wind energy. We also provided detailed analysis for seven big tech stocks (MSFT, META, QCOM, ARM, DELL, AVGO and NVDA). Click here to learn more and get two bonuses.

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NorthStar Gaming Holdings Inc. (TSXV: BET) (OTCQB: NSBBF) (‘NorthStar’ or the ‘Company’) today announced that the Company has issued a $3 million unsecured, interest-bearing promissory note dated as of September 13, 2024 (the ‘Note’) to Playtech plc. The Note shall bear interest of 8% per annum, payable in arrears at maturity. Unless otherwise accelerated pursuant to its terms, the Note will become immediately due and payable on the earlier of (i) April 25, 2025; and (ii) the date on which the Company or any of its subsidiaries completes additional financing transactions with aggregate gross proceeds of at least $10 million, subject to certain exceptions. Proceeds from the Note will be used to fund the Company’s continued growth and for general corporate purposes.

‘We welcome the opportunity to strengthen our balance sheet as we continue to advance the fundamentals of our business by delivering above-market growth,’ said Michael Moskowitz, Chair and CEO of NorthStar.

The issuance of the Note constitutes a ‘related party transaction’ within the meaning of TSX Venture Exchange (‘TSXV’) Policy 5.9 and Multilateral Instrument 61-101 Protection of Minority Security Holders in Special Transactions (‘MI 61-101’), as Playtech plc or its affiliates have control or direction over securities of the Company carrying more than 10% of the voting rights attached to the Company’s outstanding voting securities. In respect of such ‘related party transaction’, the Company is relying on the exemptions from the valuation and minority shareholder approval requirements of MI 61-101 contained in sections 5.5(a), 5.5(b), 5.7(1)(a) and 5.7(1)(f) of MI 61-101. A material change report was not filed by the Company at least 21 days before the closing of the Note offering, as the Company was required to sign and close expeditiously. In the view of the Company, this approach is reasonable in the circumstances. The Note offering was approved by all of the independent directors of the Company.

About NorthStar

NorthStar proudly owns and operates NorthStar Bets, a Canadian-born casino and sportsbook platform that delivers a premium, distinctly local gaming experience. Designed with high-stakes players in mind, NorthStar Bets Casino offers a curated selection of the most popular games, ensuring an elevated user experience. Our sportsbook stands out with its exclusive Sports Insights feature, seamlessly integrating betting guidance, stats, and scores, all tailored to meet the expectations of a premium audience.

As a Canadian company, NorthStar is uniquely positioned to cater to customers who seek a high-quality product and an exceptional level of personalized service, setting a new standard in the industry. NorthStar is committed to operating at the highest level of responsible gaming standards.

No stock exchange, securities commission or other regulatory authority has approved or disapproved the information contained herein. Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this press release.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Information and Statements

This communication contains ‘forward-looking information’ within the meaning of applicable securities laws in Canada (‘forward-looking statements’), including without limitation, statements with respect to the following: the expected benefits of the Note and use of proceeds, the ability of the Company to perform its obligations under the Note, and the ability of the Company to obtain additional financing. The foregoing are provided for the purpose of presenting information about management’s current expectations and plans relating to the future and allowing investors and others to get a better understanding of the Company’s anticipated financial position, results of operations, and operating environment. Often, but not always, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as ‘plans’, ‘expects’, ‘is expected’, ‘budget’, ‘scheduled’, ‘estimates’, ‘continues’, ‘forecasts’, ‘projects’, ‘predicts’, ‘intends’, ‘anticipates’ or ‘believes’, or variations of, or the negatives of, such words and phrases, or state that certain actions, events or results ‘may’, ‘could’, ‘would’, ‘should’, ‘might’ or ‘will’ be taken, occur or be achieved. This information involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. This forward-looking information is based on management’s opinions, estimates and assumptions that, while considered by NorthStar to be appropriate and reasonable as of the date of this press release, are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors that may cause the actual results, levels of activity, performance, or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward- looking information. Such factors include, among others, the following: risks related to the Company’s business and financial position; risks associated with general economic conditions; adverse industry risks; future legislative and regulatory developments; the ability of the Company to implement its business strategies; and those factors discussed in greater detail under the ‘Risk Factors’ section of the Company’s most recent annual information form, which is available under NorthStar’s profile on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca. Many of these risks are beyond the Company’s control.

If any of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or if the opinions, estimates or assumptions underlying the forward-looking information prove incorrect, actual results or future events might vary materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Although the Company has attempted to identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements, there may be other risk factors not presently known to the Company or that the Company presently believes are not material that could also cause actual results or future events to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. There can be no assurance that such information will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such information. No forward-looking statement is a guarantee of future results. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information, which speaks only as of the date made. The forward-looking information contained in this press release represents NorthStar’s expectations as of the date specified herein, and are subject to change after such date. However, the Company disclaims any intention or obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward-looking information whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under applicable securities laws.

All of the forward-looking information contained in this press release is expressly qualified by the foregoing cautionary statements.

For further information:

Company Contact:
Corey Goodman
Chief Development Officer
647-530-2387
investorrelations@northstargaming.ca

Investor Relations:
RB Milestone Group LLC (RBMG)
Northstar@rbmilestone.com

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/223192

News Provided by Newsfile via QuoteMedia

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

“Teslas don’t grow on trees”, Reuters journalist Ernest Scheyder wrote in The War Below, highlighting conflict between government mandates on electric vehicles and public policies hampering new metal flows into EV supply chains. The conundrum at the heart of American author Scheyder’s book is the same one executives at the world’s major miners, and many investors in the industry, are grappling with.

“This is the schizophrenia we’re seeing in the world,” says the chair of US-based Clareo, Peter Bryant.
“You’ve got this energy transition that’s going from fossil fuels to a minerals-dependent system. The same people that are pushing that are largely anti-mining.
“Against this backdrop, I [new mine developer] need to speed up and go from a 20-year nightmare to five years, or whatever it is, which also involves changing how we do mining as well.
“But governments issuing new mine approvals are being heavily influenced by a very heavy anti-mining lobby, or ecosystem.
“So these two things are totally at odds with each other. And somehow that’s got to be a reconciled.”

Bryant, an advisor to mining and energy majors, and governments, through Clareo, returns to IMARC in Sydney in October to talk about where mining and metals really fit in the world’s energy transition, shifting energy, transport and infrastructure supply chains, and a future circular economy.

These are conversations that seem to become more nuanced with each passing month.

Bryant says miners need to innovate and find ways to become integral parts of circular economic systems. They need to “lean into” recycling and evolve into materials solution providers. They also have to advance traditional project development models.

“I think the age of major, $10 billion or $20 billion massive mines, outside of iron ore and coal, is in the past,” Bryant says.
“I just don’t think you can do them anymore. The main reason is, yes, there is increased demand coming, but how big is it? And when is it? I can’t build a 50- year mine to meet a 10-year demand peak, and then it drops off.”

In that context, the “20-year nightmare” of resource discovery, permitting and development, to production, is “just not sustainable anymore”.

“It’s a huge challenge for the industry.”

Nick Bell, global sector lead, mining, minerals and metals with global engineering group, Worley, agrees the industry is “entering a critical phase where retaining trust in the business case of mining projects will be challenging”.

“The next few years will be tricky for several reasons, including higher costs resulting from the scale and complexity of mines, extended infrastructure and decarbonisation requirements of assets, geological challenges, and supply chain price volatility,” Bell says.
“That’s why we’ll see a two or three speed economy evolve … as a select few miners power ahead to build additional production capacity in future facing commodities.”

Bell says bigger miners harvesting robust cash flows from iron ore, gold and copper assets, and sitting on strong cash reserves, can pivot capital towards copper and other energy transition metals.

He says: “All miners now deploy capital with appropriate rigor. The middle speed, however, is made up of mostly mid-tier miners who will be obliged to adopt a particularly cautious approach to capital deployment. This may delay their pivot, widening the gap to the mining majors.”

Bell believes all operators will need to demonstrate the “integrity of their approach” from an environmental, social and governance (ESG) standpoint. He says miners of all sizes face common ESG challenges.

“It’s difficult to deliver minerals and metals to the market quickly,” he says.
“One reason for this is a lack of trust within the investment community and stakeholders in mining projects.”

Global sustainability advisory firm ERM’s analysis of more than 100 critical minerals projects indicated that between 2017 and 2023 nearly 60% of operators reported pre-production delays ranging from a few months to several years. Permitting issues (39% of projects), technical challenges (36%) and commercial issues (26%) topped the list of headwinds, but ERM found environmental concerns (24%) and stakeholder opposition (17%) contributed to delays.

“With mining projects regularly taking up to 20 years to reach production, we could well see critical minerals shortages before 2030 which could significantly hinder the global energy transition,” ERM’s Henry Hall says.

Impacts and benefits in different places

Hall, who heads the firm’s EMEA socio-political team, says mining companies are “struggling to decide what commodities to prioritise, what capital investments will derisk their operating assets from an ESG perspective, and which of their investors’, customers’ and stakeholders’ preferences to pay most attention to”.

“This is exacerbated by the interrelated nature of ESG risks which seem either too expensive to mitigate, difficult to measure, uncertain to predict, or to trade off against each other, forcing companies into ESG whack-a-mole, where solving one issue often exacerbates another.
“What’s more, the uncertain and rapidly evolving nature of societal expectations and technological capabilities mean that what solution looks best right now may well become defunct in future.
“Various companies, governments and investors have been grappling with the question of how to shorten timelines to production while also raising the bar on best practice management of environmental and social issues.
“In basic terms, in order to be successful, mining projects must be able to effectively demonstrate that they will minimise any negative impacts, and that the benefits that the project will deliver will be far outweighed any impacts that remain.
“Often the challenge is that the impacts and benefits are not felt in the same place – most often the negative impacts being felt locally and the positive more at the national level – and that companies underestimate the political nature of the process, concentrating more on the technical and scientific solutions that regulators demand than on perceptions of, and engagement with, impacted communities and influencers.”

Rohitesh Dhawan, CEO of the International Council on Mining and Metals ICMM, picked up this theme while in Australia this month.

“The industry has done arguably a good job with messaging around providing the materials that are needed for a clean energy transition … however, that messaging still doesn’t seem in many parts of the world to be resonating with the local communities who are the ones who have the daily impact of a mine in their neighbourhood,” he said.
“While the benefits of mining are local, they are regional and they are global, any impacts from mining are always local. We have sometimes, I think, given the impression that that’s okay because the world benefits from the stuff we do, and we’ve just got to rebalance that a bit to make sure that nobody feels like they have to be collateral damage in the world’s rush to produce these critical minerals, essential as they are.
“That means focusing as much on how we mine as what our products are used for.”

ERM critical minerals director Toby Whincup says de-risking feasibility stage projects will be crucial to the smooth and efficient progression of mining projects.

“To prevent permitting delays or stakeholder opposition, developers need to work to decouple projects from stakeholders’ negative preconceptions of mining by taking the time to build trust early through open and equal dialogue,” he says.
“ERM’s sustainability model for mining, The Mine We All Want to See, outlines a more forward-looking approach for miners, based on hard wiring positive environmental and social outcomes, defined through stakeholder collaboration, into project design from inception.”

International private equity investor in emerging mining companies, Resource Capital Funds (RCF), says heightened investor and societal ESG expectations plus the proliferation of ESG frameworks and standards mean navigating the ESG landscape is increasingly complex.

“We’re risk and opportunity focused,” says RCF principal Lauren McGregor.
“What are the material risks to the project and to the returns that we want? That’s a consistent approach that we’ve taken.
“We’re a fundamental investor. We’ve got technical expertise, which we use to assess the ESG risks and opportunities in-depth, often in close consultation with our portfolio companies. I think for generalist investors it’s often a lot harder to step beyond ESG scoring mechanisms and establish exactly what it is that they’re looking for when they’re making investments in mining companies.
“For specialist mining investors like RCF that focus on ESG as a core component of value and have deep, internal expertise and experience managing these issues, it has stayed pretty consistent.
“But I think across the board, the expectations of mining companies and making sure that they are managing their environmental risks appropriately, that they’re making a positive contribution socially, that is going to continue to become more and more important.
“Certainly we’re seeing permitting processes become more lengthy, in some cases because companies are doing more work on understanding and adapting projects to manage environmental or social impacts, but in others it’s simply due to bureaucracy and duplication.
“Permitting delays, unpredictability and increasing costs are a huge barrier to investment in the mining industry
“In terms of the social side of things we are definitely seeing companies need to engage at an earlier stage. We like to see that companies have engaged with the local communities and stakeholders at an earlier stage. We don’t want to see transactional and reactive behaviours.
“We’re seeing the most success in projects that have really good communication channels with the local stakeholders, and they’re actually listening and responding and being able to demonstrate how they responded to feedback from the community.
“It does take longer to do it that way. But I think ultimately those are the projects that we think will be most successful over the long term.”

While a new $1 billion gold mine in Australia is not going to add to the world’s critical mineral stocks, this month’s bizarre federal intervention in the McPhillamys project approval process on ESG grounds has added to industry concerns about political interference in otherwise transparent mine development paths.

Sam Berridge, portfolio manager at small-company investment firm Perennial Partners, says access to land and permitting are becoming more significant hurdles for the industry.

“Just recently we’ve seen the [federal] environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, kibosh a gold project which had all state and traditional owner approvals already in place in New South Wales,” Berridge says.
“That sort of thing really is a kick in the guts for the mining industry

“The industry spends millions of dollars on going through these approval processes, doing the environmental surveys, doing the engineering, doing the consulting with communities and what-not.“This is where the real hurdle is.
“I think that the major mining houses would like to invest in new projects but the problem is getting a new greenfields project up and running these days takes 12 to 15 years. So even if you found a good one, which is a challenge in itself, the returns from that project are going to the next generation of investors rather than current ones.
“So for that reason, M&A is looking much more appealing than new projects.

Meanwhile, Perennial’s Ewan Galloway says copper is emblematic of the industry’s so-called technical challenges.

He says even though large mines such as Cobre Panama, Kamoa-Kakula and Oyu Tolgoi have begun production in recent years, “it has been a rocky road characterised by multiple delays, capex overruns and fractious negotiations with governments”.

“In the meantime, mine grades have continued to decline, and large-scale production remains dominated by mines that started production before 2000.”

Galloway says the capital intensity of new projects continues to escalate.

“Twenty years ago you would have been looking at US$4000-to-$5000 [per tonne of installed capacity].
“Maybe a decade ago, $10,000-to-$15,000.
“And now, when you look at some of the recent projects coming through, you’re probably looking at closer to $25,000-to-$30,000, if you’re lucky. Some of the recent ones, like Cobre Panama, for example, which is now basically in care maintenance, was closer to $40,000-odd.
“And what’s driving a lot of that, when you sit there and talk to BHP, Rio and all the large copper names, is that the tier one jurisdictions and tier one mining locations have by and large been exhausted. So instead you are having to go further afield.
“That initial capital expenditure is rising as you’re having to work in areas where there’s not necessarily the infrastructure and there’s ongoing inflation around wages and other inputs.
“So we’re expecting to see that [capital intensity] continue to grow.
“I think that’s making it pretty unsustainable at the moment when you look at the incentive prices currently for copper.”

*ESG in Mine and Project Development at IMARC 2024 will canvass the industry’s sustainable mine and project development challenges and opportunities and also look at these through an investor lens. International experts will examine the Role of Mining and Metals in the Circular Economy, and review the evolving mining standards landscap

Hear more from

Peter Bryant
Chair, Clareo & ChairDevelopment Partner Institute
Development Partner Institute

Nick Bell
Global Sector Lead Mining, Minerals and Metals
Worley

Toby Whincup
Global Director – Critical Minerals
ERM

Lauren McGregor
Principal – Credit Funds
ResourceCapital Funds

Source

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Biren Technology, a Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) chip developer seen as a potential rival to industry leader NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), is making preparations for an initial public offering (IPO).

The South China Morning Post reported that the Shanghai-based company has recently begun the IPO process by enlisting the services of Guotai Junan Securities, one of the largest brokerage firms in China.

The IPO preparations, referred to as the “tutoring” process, are mandatory for companies in China before they file for a public listing. The news outlet notes that this phase typically lasts between three and 12 months, depending on the complexity of the company’s business and its compliance with regulatory requirements.

Biren Technology was founded in 2019 by Zhang Wen, a veteran of the semiconductor industry, and has positioned itself as a leader in the production of graphics processing units (GPUs) designed for AI applications.

The company launched its first high-performance chip, the BR100, in 2022. The BR100 made waves, particularly in the US, over claims it had broken computing power records. However, the chip is no longer listed on Biren’s website, and its current product lineup focuses on the Bili series of GPUs, which are now in mass production.

Biren is one of several Chinese companies attempting to fill the gap left by NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), which are barred from selling their most advanced chips to Chinese firms due to US export controls.

Reports show that the firm has secured more than US$780 million across eight funding rounds, with a significant portion of this money coming from venture capital firm HongShan (formerly Sequoia China).

Trade blacklist could derail Biren’s momentum

Despite its ambitions to go up against NVIDIA, Biren’s path forward hasn’t been without obstacles. It’s faced commercial roadblocks due to its inclusion on the US Department of Commerce’s trade blacklist.

This designation has prevented Biren from collaborating with major semiconductor players like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM,TPE:2330), which would typically produce its chips.

At the same time, Biren’s efforts to raise capital through an IPO come as China is pushing to reduce its dependence on foreign technology. The Chinese government has prioritized the development of its semiconductor industry, offering substantial state support to companies like Biren. Concerns have been raised about the sector’s heavy reliance on state-backed investments, which some industry experts arguing it could pose risks to long-term sustainability.

Currently, neither Biren nor the China Securities Regulatory Commission has disclosed details regarding the potential location for the listing or the target amount for fundraising.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) gained 35.21 points this week to close at 580.43. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) was up 787.22 points to finish the week at 23,568.65.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its final two inflation reports ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on September 17 and 18. The central bank is widely expected to make a 25 basis cut to its key policy rate, however, there has been some speculation it is considering a larger 50 point cut as inflation eases and it seeks to normalize the economy.

First, on Wednesday (September 11), the Bureau detailed its consumer price index (CPI) for August. In the release, it indicated that all items inflation increased 0.2 percent on a monthly basis and 2.5 percent year-on-year. The 12 month increase was the lowest, February 2021 when it increased by 1.7 percent. It’s also an indicator that inflation is edging closer to the Fed’s 2 percent target rate.

The Bureau followed up on Thursday (September 12) with the release of producer price index (PPI) data for August. It showed a monthly increase of 0.2 percent in final demand owed to a 0.4 percent increase in services, which had declined 0.3 percent in July. On a 12 month basis, the PPI saw a 1.7 percent gain in August.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank made a 0.25 percent cut to its benchmark rate Thursday, the second of the year, as inflation there also tracks closer to the bank’s 2 percent target. Much like the US Federal Reserve, the ECB is taking a data-based approach in setting its policy, offering little insight into future decisions and making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

The combined news caused the price of gold to soar toward the US$2,600 mark, trading at US$2,580.76 at 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday (September 13). Silver also saw strong gains, breaching the US$30 mark for the first time since July 18, to end the day at US$30.74. More broadly, commodities saw gains with the S&P GSCI (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) gaining 1.61 percent on the week to close Friday at US$519.09

Equity markets, which largely fell off following Wednesday’s CPI release, also saw broad gains at the end of the week, with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) gaining 3.4 percent to close at 5,626.01, the Nasdaq 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) jumping 5.04 percent to 19,514 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) increasing 2.07 percent to 41,393.77.

How has this week’s news impacted Canadian resource stocks? Here are the top 5 gainers on the TSX and TSX Venture Exchange.

1. Clean Air Metals (TSXV:AIR)

Company Profile

Weekly gain: 87.5 percent; market cap: C$15.06 million; share price: C$0.075

Clean Air Metals is a junior platinum group elements (PGE) exploration company focused on its 100 percent owned Thunder Bay North critical minerals project.

The site lies within a region that hosts several mining operations including the Lac Des Iles mine owned by Impala Platinum Holdings (OTCQX:IMPUF,JSE:IMP) and the Eagle mine owned by Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN,OTC Pink:LUNMF).

Shares in Clean Air saw gains this week after it provided an exploration update on Tuesday (September 10) from Thunder Bay North. In the announcement it said it had received assay results from the first two holes of its summer drilling program.

The company provided highlighted intercept of 4.92 grams per metric ton (g/t) platinum, 4.66 g/t palladium, 1.07 percent copper and 0.55 percent niobium over 51.79 meters, including 25.82 g/t platinum, 24.5 g/t palladium, 6.94 percent copper and 3.87 percent niobium over 0.97 meters.

2. Orosur Mining (TSXV:OMI)

Company Profile

Weekly gain: 66.67 percent; market cap: C$15.42 million; share price: C$0.075

Orosur Mining is an exploration company focused on the development of early to advanced-stage assets in South America.

Its flagship Anzá gold project in Colombia is a 49/51 joint venture with Minera Monte Aguila (MMA), a corporation owned equally by Newmont (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM) and Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM,NYSE:AEM).

MMA is currently the operator of Anzá. Exploration has revealed multiple gold deposits at the site, which is located 50 kilometers west of Medellin and sits along Colombia’s primary gold belt.

Orosur also owns several early-stage projects, the El Pantano gold-silver project in Argentina, the Lithium West project in Nigeria and the Ariquemes project in Brazil, which is prospective for tin, niobium and rare earths.

Shares in Orosur gained this week following an announcement on Tuesday (September 10) that the company had completed negotiations for the binding share purchase agreement of the Anza gold project originally announced in March. Once completed, Orosur will once again own a 100 percent share of the project.

Under the amended terms of the agreement, MMA will receive a 1.5 percent net smelter royalty, plus a fixed royalty of US$75 per ounce of gold or gold equivalent of the first 200,000 ounces produced.

3. Q2 Metals (TSXV:QTWO)

Company Profile

Weekly gain: 54.84 percent; market cap: C$99.51 million; share price: C$0.72

Q2 Metals is a gold and lithium exploration company with operations in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region of Québec, Canada, as well as in Queensland, Australia.

Its flagship asset is the Mia lithium property in Québec, which consists of 171 mineral claims. Exploration at the site began in 2023, with surface mapping taking place in June and its inaugural drill program commencing in October. In addition to Mia, the company also owns the Stellar Lithium property 6 kilometers north of Mia, which consists of 77 claims covering 3,972 hectares.

The company’s lone Australian asset is the Big Hill gold project, which comprises several historic mines including Big Hill, Queenslander, Monte Cristo and Sultan, and Taylor.

Shares in Q2 saw gains this week after the company provided visual results from the three holes drilled for its summer drill program at the Cisco lithium project. In the announcement, Q2 said it had encountered the longest continuous spodumene-pegmatite interval produced on site at 347.1 meters.

4. Western Resources (TSX:WRX)

Company Profile

Weekly gain: 55.56 percent; market cap: C$28.62 million; share price: C$0.07

Western Resources is a potash exploration and development company working to advance its flagship Milestone project.

Located 35 kilometers south of Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada, Milestone is situated on 84,557 acres of Crown held mineral leases and 65,305 acres of freehold leases. To date the company has completed 11 exploration wells on the property along with 2D and 3D seismic studies.

According to a November 2021 NI 43-101 report, proven reserves stood at 11.7 million metric tons with an average grade of 32.4 percent potassium chloride (KCI), with probable reserves of an additional 19.5 million metric tons at an average grade of 33.5 percent KCI.

In the company’s most recent management discussion and analysis released on August 14, it detailed the progress of the progress, indicating construction of the first phase of the project was completed in August 2023 and entered into the operational readiness stage in September 2023, with first trial production commencing in November and December 2023.

The second trial production ran from March to early May 2024 after which operations were suspended on site to focus on obtaining additional project financing.

Western Resources saw gains this past week but hasn’t released further updates on financing for the Milestone project.

5. Magna Mining (TSXV:NICU)

Company Profile

Weekly gain: 50 percent; market cap: C$156.04 million; share price: C$1.20

Magna Mining is a mineral exploration and development company focused on advancing its Crean Hill nickel-copper-PGE project and Shakespeare nickel project in Canada. Both Crean Hill and Shakespeare are brownfield projects located near Sudbury, Ontario, that have seen historic mining operations.

The more advanced 255.9 hectare Crean Hill project has seen extensive exploration and development work during the first six months of the year, and signed a milling agreement with Glencore (OTC Pink:GLCNF, LSE:GLEN) June 4 for a surface bulk sampling program. The company expects work on the sampling program to be completed during the second half of the year.

Shakespeare is composed of 29 patented and 787 mining claims covering an area of 18,074 hectares. The site hosts a past-producing mine and has permits in place for a 4,500 metric ton per day mine, mill and tailings storage.

Shares in Magna saw gains this week following an announcement on Thursday that it entered into a definitive share purchase agreement with KGHM International a subsidiary of KGHM Polska Miedź (OTC Pink:KGHPF) subsidiary to acquire the producing McCreedy West copper mine, the past producing Levack mine, Podolsky mine and Kirkwood mine along with controlling stakes in several exploration properties in the Sudbury Basin.

FAQs for TSXV stocks

What is the difference between the TSX and TSXV?

The TSX, or Toronto Stock Exchange, is used by senior companies with larger market caps, while the TSXV, or TSX Venture Exchange, is used by smaller-cap companies. Companies listed on the TSXV can graduate to the senior exchange.

How many companies are listed on the TSXV?

As of June 2024, there were 1,630 companies listed on the TSXV, 925 of which were mining companies. Comparatively, the TSX was home to 1,806 companies, with 188 of those being mining companies.

Together the TSX and TSXV host around 40 percent of the world’s public mining companies.

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.

Data for this 5 Top Canadian Mining Stocks article was retrieved at 1:00 p.m PST on September 6, 2024, using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX and TSXV with market capitalizations greater than C$10 million are included. Companies within the non-energy minerals and energy minerals sectors were considered.

Article by Dean Belder; FAQs by Lauren Kelly.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Lauren Kelly, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Hundreds of posters have appeared on billboards across Italy this summer, bearing the slogan: “Russia is not our enemy” and depicting a handshake in the colors of the Italian and Russian flags.

Some, including those that appeared in Rome this week, also feature the words, “Enough money for weapons for Ukraine and Israel. We want peace. We reject war.”

The posters, which first appeared in northern Italy in June and have been seen in Verona, Modena, Parma, Pisa and several cities in the southern region of Calabria, were paid for by associations that were formed to protest the country’s Covid-19 lockdowns, according to Sovranita Popolare, the group organizing the billboard campaign in Rome.

Ukraine’s embassy in Rome was unhappy about the development. “We are deeply concerned by the arrogance of Russian propaganda in the Eternal City,” it posted on X, adding: “We ask @comuneroma to reconsider granting permits for such posters that have a clear purpose of rehabilitating the image of the aggressor state.”

Official reaction to the posters has varied from region to region. In some places, the posters were removed by local officials, while in others they have been allowed to remain until the expiry of their payment.

In Rome, the posters drew ire from the mayor’s office because they featured both the city’s name and its official symbol. In a decree to local police and the advertising company that owns the billboards in Rome, it ordered the removal of all posters.

Group cites Italian constitution

On Friday, Sovranita Popolare posted a lengthy article on its website, taking responsibility for the campaign and quoting Article 11 of the Italian constitution, which reads: “Italy rejects war as an instrument of aggression against the freedom of other peoples and as a means for the settlement of international disputes.

“Italy agrees, on conditions of equality with other States, to the limitations of sovereignty that may be necessary to a world order ensuring peace and justice among the Nations. Italy promotes and encourages international organisations furthering such ends,” the constitution continues.

It goes on to say, “For two years, Italian warmongers have been fueling Russophobia, a feeling of hatred towards Russian people, culture and art.”

Officially, the Italian government under Giorgia Meloni backs the country’s continued military support to Ukraine, under a resolution agreed by the European Union. Meloni and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, have met several times in Rome. Earlier this month, they met at the European House’s Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, northern Italy.

But several members of Meloni’s ruling coalition have privately shown sympathy for Russia, including the late former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi – whose close friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin was well documented – and her deputy prime minister and transport minister, Matteo Salvini, who was famously photographed wearing a Putin T-shirt in Moscow’s Red Square, before the war began.

A survey carried out in May for the European Council of Foreign Relations think tank showed that the majority of those polled in Italy, along with Greece and Bulgaria, opposed increasing aid to Ukraine.

The Russian propaganda posters have not caused notable outcry among the Italian public, in part because they started appearing during the summer months, when most Italians take their vacations.

Most of the comments on the Ukrainian embassy’s post on X argue that Italy should not be subject to censorship, and that free speech should be allowed.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A military court in Congo handed down death sentences Friday to 37 people, including three Americans, after convicting them on charges of taking part in a coup attempt.

The defendants, who also included a Briton, Belgian, Canadian and several Congolese, can appeal the verdict on charges that included terrorism, murder and criminal association. Fourteen people were acquitted in the trial, which opened in June.

Six people were killed during the botched coup attempt led by the little-known opposition figure Christian Malanga in May that targeted the presidential palace and a close ally of President Felix Tshisekedi. Malanga was fatally shot while resisting arrest soon after live-streaming the attack on his social media, the Congolese army said.

Malanga’s 21-year-old son Marcel Malanga, who is a US citizen, and two other Americans were convicted in the the attack. His mother, Brittney Sawyer, has said her son is innocent and was simply following his father, who considered himself president of a shadow government in exile.

The other Americans were Tyler Thompson Jr., who flew to Africa from Utah with the younger Malanga for what his family believed was a vacation, and Benjamin Reuben Zalman-Polun, 36, who is reported to have known Christian Malanga through a gold mining company.

The company was set up in Mozambique in 2022, according to an official journal published by Mozambique’s government, and a report by the Africa Intelligence newsletter.

Thompson’s family maintains he had no knowledge of the elder Malanga’s intentions, no plans for political activism and didn’t even plan to enter Congo. He and the Malangas were meant to travel only to South Africa and Eswatini, Thompson’s stepmother said.

The reading out of the verdict and sentencing before the open-air military court were broadcast live on television.

Last month, the military prosecutor, Lt. Col. Innocent Radjabu. called on the judges to sentence to death all of the defendants, except for one who suffers from “psychological problems.”

Earlier this year, Congo reinstated the death penalty, lifting a more than two-decade-old moratorium, as authorities struggle to curb violence and militant attacks in the country.

This post appeared first on cnn.com