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September 6, 2024

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In this StockCharts TV video, Mary Ellen reviews the current downtrend taking place in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and highlights the “uninverting” yield curve. She finishes with a deep dive into Nvidia, sharing how to handle the stock depending on your investment horizon.

This video originally premiered September 6, 2024. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen on StockCharts TV.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Which of these things is not like the others? The economy. The border. Abortion. Foreign policy. 

The first three are issues many voters consistently tell pollsters are the subjects most important to them in 2024. Foreign policy? Dwarfed by the others. In fact, recent Fox polling shows that foreign policy decisions were the most important subjects to only 3% of registered voters surveyed in Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Foreign policy only climbs to 4% when Fox asked the question nationally.

So why care about foreign policy in a race like the one between Vice President Harris and former President Trump? The importance of foreign policy as a determining factor in the race for the presidency rises and falls. Vietnam wore on the public consciousness in the late 1960s. It drove former President Lyndon Johnson away from seeking re-election in 1968. The Iranian hostage crisis certainly didn’t help former President Carter as he stumbled in 1980. It’s believed that former President Reagan scored a boost from improving America’s image on the global stage. Staring down the Soviets certainly enabled Reagan to cruise to victory in 1984.

Former President George H.W. Bush seemingly received no benefit for the 1991 Gulf War nor the fall of the Eastern Bloc in the late ‘80s and early ’90s. This was ironic. The president earned a staggering 91% approval rating just after the Gulf War. Yet he lost to former President Clinton less than two years later. The events of 9/11 lifted the fate of former President George W. Bush in 2001. Bush won re-election in 2004. But casualties from the war in Iraq cost him support that fall. 

So, should we focus on foreign policy as a crucial issue in 2024? Hard to say. But in a tight race, anything might be decisive. Especially in battleground states where the race is a statistical dead heat.

‘Pocketbook issues are always the most important issues for most people,’ said Rep. Larry Bucshon, R-Ind. But Bucshon offered a caveat.

‘(Foreign policy) could be in the national security space part of the election narrative because the vice president was obviously part of this decision-making progress,’ the Indiana Republican said.

That is precisely what Republicans hope to highlight as Congress returns to session. Biden is out the door. Harris is now the Democratic nominee. And Republicans hope to tell the story of the vice president and foreign policy.

War in the Middle East. Executions of Israeli hostages. Even the controversy involving Trump honoring service members killed in Afghanistan three years ago. Curiously, the incident and questions surrounding how Trump and his team conducted themselves at Arlington National Cemetery may have actually retrained focus on why they were there in the first place: the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan under the watch of the president and vice president.

A mother of one of the 13 U.S. service members killed in the Abbey Gate attack at the Kabul airport railed against the administration.

‘We’ve been disrespected so much in the last three years,’ Kelly Barnett told Fox. She’s a Gold Star mother who lost her son, Taylor Hoover, in the terrorist attack. ‘No response from them. No ‘I’m sorry.’’

Republicans see this as connective tissue to Harris.

‘I think it’s open to criticism because the vice president was intimately involved in that discussion (to withdraw from Afghanistan),’ said Bucshon.

Harris even said as much during an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash in 2021 after the withdrawal.

‘(President Biden) just made a really big decision. Afghanistan,’ said Bash. ‘Were you the last person in the room?’

‘Yes,’ replied Harris.

‘And you feel comfortable?’ countered Bash.

‘I do,’ answered Harris.

On NBC, Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., noted that former President Trump ‘was never able’ to get out of Afghanistan despite wanting to do so.

‘I give President Biden and Vice President Harris credit for finally ending a war after 20 years,’ said Khanna.

The California Democrat conceded the administration bungled the withdrawal. But Khanna believes Harris and the president ‘deserve credit’ for actually extracting the U.S. from the protracted conflict. In addition, some Republicans point to the Israel/Hamas war as a flashpoint for the administration.

‘Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have tried to hamstring Israel every step of the way here,’ Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., said on Fox.

On Fox Business, Rep. Pat Fallon, R-Texas, argued that the only ‘two-state solution’ Harris and vice presidential nominee and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz care about is winning ‘Pennsylvania and Michigan.’

But when it comes to the Middle East, the administration contends it’s clear who is to blame — despite the Mideast crisis unfolding on its watch.

‘Hamas is responsible for their deaths. And as the president said, most leaders pay for their crimes,’ said White House national security spokesman John Kirby.

The campaign trail now moves from battleground states like Nevada and North Carolina to Capitol Hill as Congress returns to session. Expect congressional Republicans to curate a narrative about the Biden administration’s foreign policy — and latch that to Harris.

The House is slated to vote on a number of measures in the coming days pertaining to China. There may even be legislation tied to Israel and the Mideast War. The House Foreign Affairs Committee is releasing an exhaustive report about the Afghanistan withdrawal imminently. The committee also issued a subpoena to Secretary of State Antony Blinken to testify about the withdrawal Sept. 19.

The State Department contends Blinken isn’t available then. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller called the subpoena ‘unnecessary,’ arguing Blinken worked with the committee in good faith. But Foreign Affairs Committee spokeswoman Leslie Shedd said Blinken knew the committee wanted his testimony since late May.

‘The chairman offered the secretary any session day in the month of September to come in, and he refused. Instead, he vaguely suggested November or December — when it is far too late for Congress to take legislative action to fix the problems at the State Department that led to the withdrawal,’ Shedd said.

Regardless, the coming days will present lots of fodder about what went wrong in Afghanistan three years ago. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., will present the families of the 13 service members killed in Afghanistan with the Congressional Gold Medal in a ceremony Tuesday.

So, do the foreign policy arguments stick to Harris? Unclear. However, you’ll notice that Republicans recently began to invoke the ‘Biden-Harris administration.’ That’s a concerted effort to pivot from Biden and Velcro issues to the vice president — once she became the nominee.

But will foreign policy make a difference? It can. But we won’t know until the vote is in. As observed earlier, George W. Bush won re-election over former Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in 2004. But there were ‘micro’ costs to Bush’s campaign over the Iraq war in particular regions and precincts.

And in a close election, that’s why foreign policy might matter in 2024.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

After a week of wavering action, the stock market made a directional move—a lot lower—after Friday’s jobs data. Investors are concerned about the economy, and the narrative has switched from inflation worries to thinking that perhaps the Fed is too late in cutting rates. Today’s MarketCarpet shows a lot of red.

It will be interesting to see how much the Fed cuts interest rates in their September meeting. As of this writing, the probability of a 25-basis point interest rate cut is 71%, with a 50-basis point probability lowering to 29%. Will this change if next week’s August inflation data comes in cooler than expected? That remains to be seen. In the meantime, let’s see how much damage occurred in equities.

Analyzing the Stock Selloff

The S&P 500 ($SPX) was holding on to the support of its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) until Friday, when it plunged toward its 100-day SMA. The stochastic oscillator has also entered oversold territory, so watch this level to see how long it stays at this level.

CHART 1. S&P 500 SELLOFF SENDS THE INDEX TOWARD ITS 100-DAY MOVING AVERAGE. Keep an eye on the stochastic oscillator or any other momentum indicator.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

Is this a case of too much too quickly? It may seem that way, but if you’ve been investing for a while, you know that when the market is overextended, a quick and dirty selloff happens.

Big Tech stocks got slammed. Tesla (TSLA), one of the stronger performers this week, gave up most of those gains, falling over 6%. The rest of the Mag 7 stocks—Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Meta Platforms (META)—got slammed as well.

Broadcom (AVGO) sold off after announcing earnings on Thursday after the close, which may have added more fuel to the fire in the semiconductor selloff.

The daily chart of the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) clearly shows a downtrend. If the next low takes out the August low, the downtrend will be confirmed.

CHART 2. SEMICONDUCTORS GET SLAMMED. A downward sloping trend, dip in the SCTR score, weakness in MACD, and declining relative performance with respect to the S&P 500 point to weakness in semis.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score dropped to single digits after enjoying a position above 90 for an extended period. SMH closed below its 200-day SMA, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is turning lower with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, and the ETF’s relative performance with respect to the S&P 500 is falling. The technical picture is not pretty.

Bonds, Oil, Crypto  

After the jobs report, Treasury yields dropped, with the 5-year yield lower by 1.44%, 10-year lower by 0.56%, and the 30-year lower by 0.07%. For the 5- and 10-year Treasuries, these are the lowest levels in a year.

Commodities also suffered, especially crude oil, which has been sliding since April. The United States Oil Fund (USO) may not have hit its yearly low like the crude oil futures, but it is getting close.

Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is close to the lower channel of its gently sloping downtrend (see chart below). A break below this channel (dotted blue lines) could send the cryptocurrency towards 50,000 or lower. With the MACD showing weakening momentum, further decline is likely.

CHART 3. A BREAK BELOW THE LOWER TRENDLINE COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR BITCOIN. If Bitcoin shows further weakness, it could fall much lower.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

One chart I’ll be watching closely is the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX). On a significant selloff day, I expected VIX to spike as much as it did on August 5. That it didn’t could mean more volatility lies ahead. This could send the VIX higher and higher, and might be a warning signal of further selling. That makes this something to watch very closely.

Why is the US dollar up? That’s a big question mark and something to ponder over the weekend as we prepare for next week’s inflation numbers. Expect more choppiness next week.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

S&P 500 closed down 4.25% for the week, at 5408.42, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.93% for the week at 40,345.41; Nasdaq Composite closed down 5.77% for the week at 16,690.83$VIX UP 12.46% for the week closing at 22.38Best performing sector for the week: Consumer StaplesWorst performing sector for the week: TechnologyTop 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Insmed Inc. (INSM); Cava Group (CAVA); FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI); SharkNinja, Inc. (SN); Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE)

On the Radar Next Week

August Consumer Price Index (CPI)August Producer Price Index (PPI)August Export and Import PricesSeptember Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Political headwinds have recently shifted in eight close House races around the country. With less than two months until Election Day, Democrats continue to ride a wave of enthusiasm for their new presidential nominee.

Six races have shifted in Democrats’ favor, while just two are looking better for Republicans, according to a nonpartisan analysis by the Cook Political Report.

Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has spent the summer crisscrossing the country to campaign for fellow GOP lawmakers as he seeks to hold onto his razor-thin, four-seat majority in the House.

Two of the races that inched toward the left are in districts President Biden won in 2020 but are held by GOP representatives Don Bacon, R-Neb., and Michelle Steele, R-Calif. Both their ratings switched from ‘lean Republican’ to ‘toss up.’

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, who flipped her seat from red to blue in 2020, saw her race move from ‘likely’ victory for Republicans to only leaning in their favor.

Three Democratic seats — those held by representatives Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, and Henry Cuellar, D-Texas — have also become safer for the left.

Moskowitz and Cuellar’s race predictions shifted to solidly and ‘likely’ blue, respectively, while Kaptur’s seat is now leaning Democratic after being classified a ‘toss-up.’

Democrats could be on track to lose a seat in the House, however, with the race for Rep. Mary Peltola’s seat becoming a ‘toss-up’ in Alaska, a state former President Trump won in 2020.

Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, which Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., is vacating to run in the nearby 4th Congressional District, is now ‘likely’ to be held by Republicans after her departure.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the House Democrats’ campaign arm, took a victory lap over Cook’s latest updates Friday. 

‘House Democrats continue to build momentum and grassroots enthusiasm across the country, while House GOP incumbents and candidates continue to fall flat on their faces,’ DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement to the press touting the update.

Republicans appeared to be on track to possibly win both the White House and Congress before Biden’s shocking decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race in late July.

Democrats have since been riding a wave of enthusiasm for their new candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, despite a lack of expansive policy platforms and few unscripted media appearances.

At least one House Republican who spoke with Fox News Digital this week was bullish about the GOP’s chances of victory, however.

‘If these predictive sites are to be believed, maybe Donald Trump’s got a 42% chance to be president. We’ve got a, you know, 60-some percent chance to take the Senate and a 55% chance to keep the House. So, that’s a better hand of cards than we’re holding today,’ the GOP lawmaker said. 

‘I would say this. If Donald Trump gets elected, he will likely usher in a Republican House and Senate along with him.’

Last month, House GOP leaders were expressing concerns about being out-raised by Democrats.

Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., head of the House GOP campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), confirmed he sounded alarm bells in comments to Fox Business in August.

‘That’s true, and we’ve seen the fundraising on the Democrat side just go through the roof. And so I’ve warned my candidates and my colleagues in the Congress that we’ve got to step up and continue doing the things we need to do to win,’ Hudson said at the time.

He said the response from House Republicans has been ‘great,’ adding, ‘Everyone stepped up. We had a number of people pledge more money to the committee. … I think folks are ready for the fight.’

Fox Business’ Grady Trimble and Fox News’ Tyler Olson contributed to this report

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is making clear that his forces will not agree to Hamas’ demands to vacate Gaza, for two crucial reasons – overall national security and ensuring the safe return of the remaining hostages still in Hamas captivity. 

Concerns continue to mount that Hamas could look to smuggle some of the remaining 97 Israeli hostages still in captivity into the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt, which has long been deemed a haven for Islamic militant groups, and where they could then be transported to Yemen or Iran.

According to Netanyahu, the best way to prevent these Hamas hostage smuggling efforts is through maintaining the contested Philadelphi Route – a security corridor that runs between the Gaza Strip and Egypt.

‘Hol[d] the Philadelphi corridor, because that possesses Hamas, that prevents them from rearming,’ Netanhyu told Fox and Friends’ Brian Kilmeade. ‘It prevents Gaza from becoming this Iranian terror enclave again, which can threaten our existence. 

‘But it’s also the way to prevent them from smuggling hostages . . . into Egypt, into the Sinai, where they could disappear,’ he added. ‘Then they’ll end up in Iran or in Yemen, and they’re lost forever.’

The prime minster’s comments echoed a report by The Jewish Chronicle that said Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar was hashing out a secret plan to smuggle himself, other Hamas leadership and some of the remaining Israeli hostages out of Gaza through the Philadelphi corridor before heading to Iran.

The chronicle cited Israeli intelligence sources, though other Israeli news outlets refuted the reporting Thursday, and Fox News Digital could not independently verify the intelligence.

In his remarks to Fox News, Netanyahu did not expand on the leverage Hamas could gain by smuggling the hostages out of Gaza, but securing the hostages’ release has increasingly taken center stage in the ceasefire negotiations.

Following the assassination of six Israeli hostages who had been held prisoner by Hamas since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, and who were found in the tunnels mined by the terrorist organization last month, Netanyahu has increased his opposition to U.S. efforts to push through a cease-fire agreement. 

Three of the hostages killed were reportedly supposed to be part of an exchange under a cease-fire deal proposed in July, but which never came to fruition. 

‘We’re doing everything we can to get the remainder [out],’ Netanhyu said. ‘But Hamas consistently refuses to make a deal.’

Details of the ceasefire agreement put forward by the U.S., Qatar and Egypt have remained closely guarded for months, and reporting for weeks has suggested that the most recent deal signed on by Israel, but rebuffed by Hamas, was down to Jerusalem’s refusal to vacate the Philadelphi Route. 

‘It’s just a direct falsehood,’ he said, noting that it is about more than just holding onto the corridor.

‘What we have to do is to make sure that we do two things,’ Netanyahu said. ‘One, get the hostages out. And second, keep the red lines that are necessary for Israel’s security and survival. 

‘I think both of them go through holding the Philadelphi corridor,’ he added. 

Despite Netanyahu’s strong opposition to ceding any hold of the strategic route and Hamas’ apparent refusal to hand over more hostages until Israel stops its operations in Gaza, Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday said that negotiations were making significant headway. 

‘I think based on what I’ve seen, 90 percent is agreed, but there are a few critical issues that remain where we need to be able to get agreement,’ he told reporters. ‘Much of this has been discussed in recent days, including the Philadelphi corridor, including some of the exact specifics of how hostages and prisoners are exchanged.  

‘So that remains, but pretty much everything else is there,’ he added. 

Blinken said he expects in the ‘coming days’ that an updated deal will be shared by Egypt and Qatar with Hamas and by the U.S. with Israel in an attempt to shore up a cease-fire agreement. 

‘Then it will be time really for the parties to decide yes or no, and then we’ll see,’ he added. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

On Thursday afternoon, I dove into the StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR) Reports to scout out a good ETF during a mixed market (Dow and S&P 500 were down, Nasdaq was up).

Two gold miner ETFs—Wisdom Tree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners ETF (GDMN) and iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING)—caught my eye. Both had high SCTR scores of 99.9 and 99.6, respectively.

THE SCTR REPORT FOR US ETFs.

Everyone’s been talking about gold since it started climbing back in October 2022. But gold mining companies? Not so much.

Does this present an opportunity for investment, given ongoing geopolitical tensions, central bank demand, and the much-anticipated Fed rate cuts? Possibly.  But let’s dig deeper to try to get a deeper technical view as to what’s going on. 

Comparing GDMN to RING (and Gold)

First, GDMN and RING share a few of the same companies, but overall, they have different holdings. Let’s compare the performance of both companies and, out of curiosity, see how both compare to gold.

Open the StockCharts PerfCharts (under Member Tools or Charts & Tools) and enter GDMN,RING,$GOLD in the symbols box.

If you set the time parameters to one year, you get something like the chart below.

CHART 1. PERFCHART OF GDMN, RING, AND GOLD. GDMN is the red line, RING, the blue line, and gold, the green line. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Notice how both miners started outperforming gold in April, with GDMN leading the pack. But if you follow gold’s seasonality context, you know that the yellow metal dips in the summer before making a big move in the fall.

That’s gold. But what about gold miners? Let’s check the Dow Jones Gold Mining Index ($DJUSPM).

Under Charts & Tools, select Seasonality and enter $DJUSPM in the symbol box.

CHART 2. FIVE-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF DOW JONES GOLD MINING INDEX.  The number at the top of the bar indicates higher-close %, while the numbers at the bottom indicate average % return.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Over the last five years, August and September were the weakest months for gold miners. November and December both notched second best. March and April were the most outstanding months.

Gold demand has climbed over the last five years. Given the current economic and geopolitical context, how these numbers will pan out is unclear. But you have to check the price action if you’re bullish gold miners—and miners’ technical readings are outstandingly bullish right now.

Analyzing GDMN and RING

Are GDMN and RING the best mining indexes to trade? Both have high SCTR scores, and we know that gold miners, in general, have been on a steady rise.

But look at their trading volumes. In the Symbol Summary tool, type in each symbol.

GDMN has an incredibly low volume of 628 (no market cap listed)RING’s volume is a little better, with 41,863 and a market cap of 517M

Gold mining ETFs generally have low liquidity, making them difficult to trade. A better and more liquid representation of gold miners is the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which has a market cap of $13.66B and an average trading volume of around 7,259,656.

Let’s analyze its daily chart.

CHART 3. DAILY CHART OF GDX. Note the clear trend swing points.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

First, notice that the SCTR reading has been well above the 90 line (see green rectangle in the top panel), indicating extreme bullishness across several indicators and timeframes. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has been rising since July, indicating strong buying pressure.

The Ichimoku Cloud has been a reliable indicator of support since GDX established a near-term uptrend in March. As GDX is now touching the cloud (the ETF is a candidate in the Entered Ichimoku Cloud predefined scan), it might signal a favorable entry point.

More importantly, the ZigZag line, highlighting GDX’s swing points, is key to determining the trend and entry and stop loss levels. Basically, if an uptrend is defined as higher highs and higher lows, then for GDX’s uptrend to remain valid, it has to eventually break above $40, its most recent swing high, and it can’t close below its most recent swing low of $34 (see orange circles).

At the Close

SCTR reports can be a powerful starting point for spotting market opportunities. In this case, the report led me to gold miners, but finding a truly tradable option—like GDX—required some extra research. SCTR points you in the right direction, and, with a little homework using additional StockCharts tools, you can uncover attractive trading opportunities.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

I’ve been around long enough to remember when Intel (INTC) was the NVIDIA of the day. Now INTC is under severe pressure, having suspended its dividend, and currently being considered for removal from the Dow 30 Industrial Average. Oh, how the mighty have fallen! With INTC having declined so much, we wonder if it is time to be bargain hunting this stock. Let’s look at charts in three time frames to find the answer.

The daily chart below shows it making new 52-week lows today. The daily PMO was rising above the signal line, but it has turned down, and the PMO is deeply below the zero line. INTC has been in a narrow trading range for about a month. If it were to break up out of that range, it might be considered as a buy candidate, but for now it doesn’t look promising.

The weekly chart doesn’t look any more promising. We can see that a line of support has been violated, and that the weekly PMO is falling well below the zero line. No encouragement here.

Finally, the monthly chart shows that a very long-term support line has been violated, and the monthly PMO is falling below the zero line. INTC has just entered a zone of congestion wherein it may find support, but the potential is for price to fall to 7.50.

Conclusion: So, to answer our initial question, no, there are no signs in any of the three time frames that now is the time to be buying this stock. Probably the first sign that it may be time to consider an entry would be when the daily PMO turns up, accompanied by positive price action. Gradually adding to the position could take place as we see similar signs in the weekly and monthly time frames.

Introducing the new Scan Alert System!

Delivered to your email box at the end of the market day. You’ll get the results of our proprietary scans that Erin uses to pick her “Diamonds in the Rough” for the DecisionPoint Diamonds Report. Get all of the results and see which ones you like best! Only $29/month! Or, use our free trial to try it out for two weeks using coupon code: DPTRIAL2. Click HERE to subscribe NOW!

Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:

Watch the latest episode of the DecisionPointTrading Room on DP’s YouTube channel here!

Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!

Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 Subscribe HERE!

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

We are always on the lookout for chart patterns. We found a bearish head and shoulders developing on Semiconductors (SMH).

Looking at the daily chart below we can see the pattern developing. However, we do have to point out participation. Note the very low percentages on %Stocks > 20/50EMAs. These are clearly oversold readings and if we look back at the vertical green lines that mark cardinal price bottoms, you’ll note they were at these levels. One thing to keep in mind is that oversold conditions can persist in a bear market. SMH is down over 20% from the July top so we could see low readings for some time.

The Silver Cross Index is about to see a Bearish Shift across the signal line and that would give us a Bearish Bias in the intermediate term. It is already at a very low 36% reading suggesting how unhealthy this group is.

This head and shoulders pattern looks dangerous. Textbooks tell us that a break below the neckline would imply a downside move that is the height of the pattern. That would take price back down to 120.00. We doubt that will happen, but 160.00 doesn’t seem out of the question if this pattern executes.

Conclusion: Semiconductors (SMH) are in a bear market and are now forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern that would imply a drop well below 160.00. Given participation readings are very oversold, we aren’t so sure it will see that kind of devastation, but we definitely should be prepared for more downside from this group.

Introducing the new Scan Alert System!

Delivered to your email box at the end of the market day. You’ll get the results of our proprietary scans that Erin uses to pick her “Diamonds in the Rough” for the DecisionPoint Diamonds Report. Get all of the results and see which ones you like best! Only $29/month! Or, use our free trial to try it out for two weeks using coupon code: DPTRIAL2. Click HERE to subscribe NOW!

Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:

Watch the latest episode of the DecisionPointTrading Room on DP’s YouTube channel here!

Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!

Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 Subscribe HERE!

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

After six weeks of recess, the House is set to fast-track approval of a slew of China-related bills that aim to counter the U.S.’s growing foe beginning on Monday. 

With only three weeks of work on Capitol Hill before the November election, the Republican-led lower chamber is dedicating precious floor time to bills that would root out Chinese spyware within the country and set up the next president to take tougher action against Beijing. 

‘We wanted to combine them all into one week so that you had a real sharp focus on the fact that we need to be aggressive in confronting the threat that China poses,’ Majority Leader Steve Scalise told Fox News Digital about the planned ‘China Week.’

‘I think we can get real bipartisan support for a number of these,’ the Louisiana Republican said. ‘They’re all bills that should be very bipartisan, because there are things that China is doing right now that are direct threats to our country’s national security, and if we get strong bipartisan votes, you have a higher chance of getting through the Senate.’

Scalise said that four bills will come up under a rule, meaning that they will be debated by the House and that members can offer amendments. Still more will come up under suspension of the rules, meaning that the House is aiming to pass them quickly and without debate. 

Scalise highlighted one bill that would undo the Biden administration’s guidance allowing Chinese-made electric vehicles to qualify for a $7,500 tax credit. The move enraged even West Virginia’s Democrat-turned-Independent Sen. Joe Manchin, who helped author the Inflation Reduction Act that allowed for the credit. 

The End Chinese Dominance of Electric Vehicles Act, introduced by Rep. Carol Miller, R-W.Va., would tighten the Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) definition of a 30D EV that qualifies for the credit to exclude those vehicles with significant parts that are made in China. 

Another bill would broadly ban China from purchasing U.S. farmland. Chinese entities owned about 380,000 acres of agricultural land in the U.S. as of 2023, or less than 1%. 

Another bill, the No WHO Pandemic Preparedness Treaty Without Senate Approval Act, would prevent the U.S. from agreeing to any pandemic preparedness agreement negotiated by the World Health Organization (WHO) without the approval of two-thirds of the Senate. 

‘We’re giving an extra buffer so that the administration can’t just go partner up with WHO and come up with an agreement that would result in really bad policy for America,’ Scalise said. 

Another bill, the Biosecure Act, would ban federal agencies that run research labs from using any biotech equipment from any company that could be at risk of harnessing data to send back to the CCP.

Another, the DHS Restrictions on Confucius Institutes and Chinese Entities of Concern Act, would prevent any federal money from going to universities involved with CCP-run Confucius Institutes. 

‘You’re seeing China get more involved in our higher ed institutions,’ said Scalise. 

During former President Donald Trump’s administration in 2018, Congress ‘restricted federal funding to schools with institutes; nearly all of the institutes have since closed,’ according to Congress’s Government Accountability Office (GAO).

Another piece of legislation would re-establish a task force formed under Trump within the Department of Justice specifically focused on Chinese espionage. 

FBI Director Christopher Wray estimated last year his agency has more than 2,000 active investigations related to Chinese spying. 

The FBI estimates that Chinese counterfeit goods, pirated software and theft of trade secrets have cost the U.S. economy between $225 billion and $600 billion. 

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Actress and environmental activist Jane Fonda once again addressed an overseas audience, warning Democratic voters abroad that former President Donald Trump will ‘jail’ anyone who protests his policies if he’s re-elected. 

‘If you are young out there abroad, you’re going to want to vote so that you have a livable future. And you’re going to want to vote so that you have a voice in a democracy. Now, with a Harris ticket, you will have a voice, if you want something to happen, or you want something to not happen, you can lobby. You can protest, demonstrate, you can do all kinds of things,’ Fonda said during a Democrats Abroad campaign event for the Harris-Walz ticket Thursday afternoon. 

‘The Orange Man will not let that happen. He puts the people who don’t agree with him in jail, and he said he’s going to make their lives miserable,’ Fonda continued before a moderator for the campaign event interjected that their next speaker, Sen. Ed Markey, was set to address the virtual event. 

Democrats Abroad is the official arm of the Democratic Party for American citizens living overseas, including registering them to vote and keeping them apprised of key policy issues during election cycles. About three million U.S. citizens live abroad and vote overseas, according to the Federal Voting Assistance Program. 

The group held an hours-long campaign event Thursday afternoon on Zoom, where a bevy of elected Democratic officials and Hollywood elites spoke to those living overseas about why they are supporting the Harris-Walz ticket. 

Hollywood stars such as Kyra Sedgewick, Rob Reiner, Alfre Woodard and Fonda, as well as elected officials including former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, former Attorney General Eric Holder and Rep. Adam Schiff, delivered short remarks to those watching, encouraging them to snub Trump at the ballot box. 

‘One of the main reasons … this particular election in this coming November is so utterly critical, is because one of the two top tickets – and I don’t think I need to mention the names – will take us in the absolutely wrong direction. I’m going to say the Orange Man. Okay, the Orange Man has let us know in no uncertain terms that on day one, if he is elected, it’s going to be ‘Drill, baby, drill.’ And as I said, the world cannot afford another four years of not paying attention to the climate crisis. It’s going to be too late to solve this existential crisis. We need a strong democracy. And the Orange Man has also let us know that he’s not crazy about democracy,’ Fonda continued in her remarks. 

Pelosi also slammed Trump, while opting to call the 45th president ‘what’s his name’ and arguing that ‘our democracy is at stake’ this election cycle. She added that she’s grateful to God that she was serving as speaker of the House on Jan. 6, 2021, when supporters of Trump’s breached the U.S. Capitol, instead of a Republican House leader. 

‘I want to say this immodestly, but I was very glad that God placed me to be the speaker on January 6 of last time. Because if it had been a Republican speaker, the whole story would be different now. So, Hakeem Jeffries must be the Speaker of the House on January 6. That’s a must. It’s up to you. No burden, just up to you,’ Pelosi said. 

The former attorney general under the Obama administration, Eric Holder, also addressed those watching, arguing that Trump’s political statements and policies during the 2024 campaign cycle have been ‘chilling.’ 

‘They’ve grown comfortable with everything from gerrymandering to voter suppression to outright intimidation. And this is profoundly, you know, un American. I mean, earlier this summer, Donald Trump asked a part of his MAGA base, talking to some Maga supporters, he told them that you just have to vote just this time. Vote just this time. And then he said you won’t have to do it anymore. That’s a pretty chilling thing,’ Holder said. 

Holder joined the Harris campaign earlier this year to lead the vetting process of her potential running mates before Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was announced as the candidate last month.

September is a key month for American voters abroad, with federal law requiring absentee ballots to be sent to members of the military and voters overseas 45 days before the election. The ballots will be sent out by Sept. 21 during this election cycle. 

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