Copper price in Q4

Experts have widely predicted a copper supply deficit over the last few years.

On the demand side, industrial usage tied to the energy transition is rising, and that’s on top of high copper consumption due to increasing rates of urbanization in the Global South.

Further consternating the market is a concerning supply situation. First Quantum Minerals’ (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) Cobre Panama mine, which previously contributed approximately 1 percent of global copper supply, has been on care and maintenance since the Panamanian government ordered its closure at the end of 2023.

More recently, in September, Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) announced the temporary closure of its Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to an ingress of 800,000 metric tons of wet material into the main Grasberg block cave (GBC), killing seven workers. The company has launched an investigation and adjusted its annual guidance.

Even though both operations are expected to return to full production, the process will take time.

In September, Panama said it would initiate an environmental and social audit of Cobre Panama by the end of 2025, with the mine to begin production in early 2026. Tied to the restart will be a significant change to the contract under which First Quantum had previously been operating, ensuring state ownership of the land and its resources.

Meanwhile, Freeport said that operations will resume at the unaffected Big Gossan and Deep Mill Level Zone mines before the end of 2025, but extraction at the GBC won’t restart until the second quarter of 2026. Freeport also noted that it isn’t expecting the GBC to return to full production until 2027.

Once restarted, the mines will be a welcome relief to an overburdened copper market, but in their closed state, their lack of contribution is significantly shifting the supply situation.

In an October report, the International Copper Study Group predicted a 178,000 metric ton global refined copper surplus for 2025, saying it would shift to a 150,000 metric ton deficit in 2026.

However, by the end of November, the situation had evolved, with the group noting a smaller refined copper surplus of about 94,000 metric tons through the first nine months of 2025.

With just one month left in the year, the market looks to be approaching a deficit sooner than expected.

The November release outlines growing use of refined copper, which rose 5.5 percent during the first nine months of 2025; refined copper output rose just 4.3 percent, while mining production increased 2.2 percent.

One moderating factor for supply/demand could be a soft macroeconomic environment, particularly in the US.

“US demand from construction and manufacturing is expected to remain steady but not robust, as policy headwinds for renewables and EVs, elevated input costs, and project delays persist,’ she said.

‘Most market watchers anticipated continued arbitrage opportunities between US and global benchmarks with periodic local price spikes as trade policies evolve.’

How did copper perform for the rest of the year?

Copper price, January 1 to December 3, 2025.

Copper price in Q1

The copper price rose sharply in the first quarter amid strong supply and demand fundamentals.

These included supply chain disruptions following a major power outage in Chile at the end of February, which caused a temporary shutdown at BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine.

Prices also saw major momentum amid tariff threats, as US President Donald Trump made several significant trade policy announcements at the start of his second term in office.

Among them was the signing of an executive order at the end of February that invoked Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and initiated a national security investigation into the impacts of copper imports into the US.

Although tariffs wouldn’t be applied to copper until Q3, the move still prompted traders to stockpile refined copper at Chicago Mercantile Exchange warehouses to get ahead of any potential tariffs.

Copper price in Q2

Volatility was the story in Q2, as markets were affected by a widening supply deficit and the threat of US tariffs.

The start of the quarter saw markets plummet following Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement, which applied a baseline 10 percent tariff to all imports into the US, with additional retaliatory tariffs following shortly after.

Additionally, the US and China butted heads and initiated a tariff war that saw Chinese goods entering the US hit with 145 percent tariffs; US goods entering China were levied with 125 percent tariffs.

The tariffs caused a great deal of uncertainty to creep into the US bond market, pushing yields on 10 year treasuries up sharply as investors began dumping these assets. The move sparked fears of an imminent recession, prompting broad selloffs across commodities and equity markets.

Copper price in Q3

The third quarter was also defined by high volatility, with copper prices in the US surging as traders sought to import large volumes of the metal before the implementation of Section 232 tariffs.

The imports caused a significant disparity between the US and international markets, with premiums on the Comex rising to 30 percent above those at the London Metal Exchange. Putting that disconnect into context, Jacob White, exchange-traded fund product manager at Sprott Asset Management, explained that a copper short squeeze on the Comex in 2024 pushed premiums to a high of 8 percent. The London Metal Exchange and Comex are typically much closer to par, with an average differential of 0.5 percent over the past five years.

Ultimately, refined copper was exempted for the time being, with tariffs set to be phased in at 15 percent in 2027 and 30 percent in 2028. The move pulled the rug out from under traders, causing the US prices to collapse.

Weak US dollar, low interest rates price positive for gold

The gold price has an inverse relationship with the US dollar and real interest rates. Indeed, Morgan Stanley’s US$4,500 gold forecast for mid-2026 is predicated on a weaker dollar and lower rates.

Lower rates typically weaken the dollar, and Trump has been pressuring the US Federal Reserve to drop rates since taking office. With Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term due to end next year, market watchers are anticipating that a more dovish Fed head will take the helm. This means that more rate cuts are likely on the table for 2026.

A softer dollar and a low rate environment would provide foundational support for further gold price gains. The resulting inflation is expected to push the Fed toward quantitative easing (QE), or the purchasing of government bonds to increase money supply and lower long-term rates, which would further bolster the yellow metal’s appeal.

At its October policy meeting, the Fed stated that its quantitative tightening activities (allowing bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds) would end on December 1.

“Frankly … interest expense for the federal government is running at US$1.2 trillion a year (and) the budget deficit is US$1.8 trillion a year, so the interest is really contributing to the deficit,” he said. “The US federal government really needs lower rates, or else interest is going to continue to consume a big piece of their revenues.”

Lepard believes investors are keenly aware that lower rates are coming, which naturally means more inflation. This realization is enhancing gold’s investment appeal.

Gold price forecasts for 2026

Heading into 2026, Fed monetary policy changes are likely to give gold another boost to the upside.

“As we move through the year, as the Federal Reserve transitions to QE and maybe yield curve control and money printing, the (precious) metals themselves will catch another leg up,” said Lepard.

“Gold will go through US$4,500 toward US$5,000, silver will go to US$60 or US$70 and (gold and silver) stocks will all go up another 30 percent pretty easily, and then maybe more over the next 12 months,’ he added.

Global financial services provider B2PRIME Group also sees gold’s average price in 2026 at around US$4,500 as US debt challenges and possible Fed rate cuts continue to bolster the value of the precious metal.

Overall, most analysts’ gold price predictions for the upcoming year are in the US$4,500 to US$5,000 range.

Metals Focus is forecasting an annual average high of US$4,560 in 2026, with gold potentially reaching a record US$4,850 in the fourth quarter. The firm sees these gains materializing despite a projected gold surplus of 41.9 million ounces in 2026, up 28 percent year-on-year; that would take mine production to another record high in 2026.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is predicting that gold could reach as high as US$4,900 next year on increased central bank buying and anticipated inflation-causing interest rate cuts by the Fed.

For its part, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) sees the yellow metal breaching US$5,000 in 2026 on growing deficit spending in the US and Trump’s ‘unorthodox macro policies.’

Investor takeaway

Ongoing uncertainty from trade tensions, a potential market correction in the AI sector, US debt challenges and anticipated shifts in Fed policy have fueled strong investment demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Those demand drivers are not going away in 2026; in fact, they are likely to provide further foundational support that could propel the gold price to new record highs.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$92,758.95, up by 4.1 percent over 24 hours.

Bitcoin price performance, December 3, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

After Bitcoin stared the week with its largest single-day decline in a month, it rallied about 6.6 percent in 24 hours to reclaim US$93,000. This now marks Bitcoin’s highest intraday level in more than two weeks.

Despite the cryptocurrency’s rebound, analysts are still urging caution and advising investors to await clearer macro signals before fully re-entering higher-risk assets.

Ether (ETH) also regained ground and is currently priced at US$3,051.34, up 7.1 percent over 24 hours.

Altcoin price update

• XRP (XRP) was priced at US$2.19, an increase of 4.6 percent over 24 hours.

• Solana (SOL) was trading at US$142.17, up by 6.6 percent over 24 hours.

Today’s crypto news to know

Strategy faces possible removal from MSCI indexes

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) is in discussions with index provider MSCI as the company thinks about removing Strategy from major stock indexes, according to Reuters.

MSCI is considering cutting companies whose business model is to buy crypto. Strategy currently holds about 650,000 BTC and has relied on new debt and equity issuance to add to its holdings.

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) estimates a removal could trigger up to US$8.8 billion in outflows if other index providers follow suit. Saylor said the company is participating in MSCI’s review process, but questioned the scale of possible selling projected by JPMorgan. A verdict is expected by January 15 of next year.

Sony partner launches stablecoin for Soneium

Startale Group has launched USDSC, a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar that is designed to serve as the default settlement currency on Sony Group’s (NYSE:SONY,TSE:6758) Soneium blockchain.

According to a Decrypt report, the launch includes a new rewards program called STAR Points that is geared at encouraging user activity across payments, liquidity supply and app interaction. Soneium went live earlier this year following a test phase that drew 14 million users and processed 50 million transactions.

Startale CEO Sota Watanabe said USDSC aims to support payments and yield generation across the network’s creator-focused ecosystem. Stablecoin infrastructure firm M0 is providing backend support for issuance and liquidity.

A waitlist for the Startale app is open to users seeking early access to USDSC features and rewards.

SEC blocks rollout of high-leverage ETFs

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has halted the approval process for multiple ultra-leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs), citing concerns about investor risk.

Warning letters were sent to nine issuers, including Direxion, ProShares and Tidal, affecting products designed to offer more than 2x exposure to equities, commodities and cryptocurrencies.

The SEC said the proposals exceed regulatory limits on allowable leverage and rely on benchmark definitions that may fail to reflect true market volatility. Some of the planned funds target exposure to highly volatile assets. No 3x or 5x single-stock ETFs currently exist in the US due to existing restrictions.

Leveraged ETF trading has surged since 2020, with total assets rising to around US$162 billion.