US trade policy driving gold price in 2025

Metals Focus analysts attribute gold’s stellar performance in 2025 to a number of factors largely centered on growing global economic uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Gold’s safe-haven status is highly favored in these conditions, attracting both retail and institutional investors as well as central banks.

However, the firm sees US President Donald Trump’s trade policies as the most influential: “In our view, the single most important factor has been uncertainty around US trade policy.”

Trump’s constant trade war waffling has businesses and governments scrambling to keep up and unable to plan for the future. As tariffs increase the price of goods while disrupting supply chains, inflation is becoming stickier.

This is baking in more macroeconomic risks into the global economy, and in turn raising the risk for stagflation — an environment that experts agree is ideal for higher gold prices.

The US Federal Reserve’s reversal of its monetary policy in mid-September 2025 with its first interest rate cut and the anticipation of further rate cuts to come are further boosting the gold price. The sustainability of growing US debt and the waning strength of the US dollar on the global stage are also price supporting factors for the yellow metal.

Central bank gold buying, which has reached record levels in recent years, also continued to be net positive in 2025, further driving demand. “Put together, these drivers explain why gold has not only reached fresh highs in 2025, but also why pullbacks have been shallow and short-lived, as investors have been rushing to buy dips,” states Metals Focus.

Silver price shoots up on liquidity squeeze

The same forces sending gold prices to new heights are also bringing silver along for the ride.

Silver often lags behind its sister metal, and this latest price cycle was no exception.

However, investor belief that silver remains undervalued given strong industrial demand and unprecedented tight supply finally pushed the metal to break on through to the other side of a 45 year record high.

Metals Focus also points to the liquidity squeeze in the silver futures market, specifically concerning the COMEX in London. As the immediate supply of silver has not been enough to meet rising demand, the spot price for silver has risen higher than the price of futures contracts, a phenomenon known as backwardation.

This creates a squeeze on short sellers who must now buy back silver contracts at higher prices.

The situation amplified silver’s rally in early to mid-October. However, later in the month shipments of silver from New York and China helped to alleviate this pressure.

Gold price outlook for 2026

Looking forward, the trends underlying much of gold’s record-breaking price momentum are expected to remain strong well into next year. Metals Focus sees the price of gold posting another annual average high of US$4,560 as it heads toward US$5,000 in 2026, potentially reaching a record US$4,850 in the fourth quarter.

These gains in gold are projected to materialize despite supply side growth. Metals Focus is forecasting a surplus of 41.9 million ounces in 2026, up 28 percent year-on-year. The firm sees gold mine production reaching another record high in 2026 at the same time that gold recycling could climb by 6 percent to a 14-year high in jewellery demand is likely to be affected by high prices, low consumer confidence, and economic uncertainty.

What will move gold prices higher in 2026?

Gold investors should take cues from interest rate moves, inflation levels, strength or weakness in the US dollar and sentiment surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Of course, US trade policy will continue to be a main theme for precious metals over the next 12 months.

“As we have witnessed since the beginning of the Trump 2.0 administration, the abrupt and often unpredictable nature of US policy moves and the resulting uncertainty for the global trade system, and in turn the global economy, is expected to be a key driver of sentiment towards gold,” states the firm in the report.

Further driving demand, central banks around the world are expected to remain net buyers of safe-haven gold as the global push toward de-dollarization continues.

Gold and silver price outlook.

Chart via Metals Focus, Bloomberg.

Silver price outlook for 2026

As for silver, the white metal will continue to be seen as a more affordable alternative to gold. Metals Focus is looking for silver to average US$57 next year, and even take a run at the US$60 level in mid- to late 2026.

Silver has not only benefited from safe-haven investor demand and strong industrial demand, but also tight supply. However, the firm notes that the ongoing supply deficit for silver is expected to fall from 143.6 million ounces in 2024 to 63.4 million ounces in 2025. That figure is expected to shrink further to 30.5 million ounces in 2026.

Nevertheless, the silver market remains in a supply deficit at a time when demand is strong.

“We therefore remain bullish towards silver for the rest of this year and 2026,” note the report’s authors, who expect silver to continue outperforming gold at least in the first half of the new year.

In response, the gold-silver ratio has the potential to continue falling in 2026. However, Metals Focus believes the market will see this trend reverse in the back half of the year as silver loses some steam.

Gold-silver ratio.

Chart via Metals Focus, Bloomberg.

Investor takeaway

Overall, Metal Focus is confident the precious metals bull market will continue for the rest of 2025 and into 2026.

Gold especially is benefiting from its safe-haven status at a time of heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. Silver is tracking its ascent and also seeing tight aboveground supply and sustained industrial demand.

For those who think they’ve missed out on the gains to be made in this latest precious metals bull cycle, there’s still plenty of upside to be had in the gold and silver markets in Q4 and heading into 2026.

Investor Insight

Cartier Resources presents a compelling gold investment opportunity, driven by a growing Abitibi resource, solid institutional support, and upcoming development milestones.

Overview

Cartier Resources (TSXV:ECR,FSE:6CA) is a Quebec-based gold exploration company advancing a compelling growth story anchored in one of Canada’s most prolific gold regions — the Abitibi Greenstone Belt. With a focused strategy, institutional support and a commitment to innovation, Cartier is building a significant gold resource base while positioning its flagship Cadillac project as an emerging mining camp east of Val-d’Or. As the company transitions from explorer to potential developer, the coming months present multiple catalysts for a significant valuation uplift.

Cartier projects in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt in Quebec

The Cadillac project has evolved from a single mine project into an emerging gold camp with multiple deposits, advanced resource modeling, and a clear development path. Located in a mining-friendly jurisdiction with existing infrastructure, the Cadillac project is ideally positioned to attract development partners, strategic investments, or acquisition interest from senior producers.

In 2023, using a gold price of US$1,750, Cartier completed a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) which confirmed the project’s robust economics, with a production forecast of 116,900 oz/year over 9.7 years and a low AISC of US$755/oz.

With permitting pathways de-risked by historical mining activity and extensive drilling already completed, Cartier has launched a fully funded 100,000-metre diamond drilling program. By combining AI and geostatistical reinterpretation techniques with traditional exploration methods, the company is positioning itself at the forefront of modern mineral discovery.

The Cadillac project has all the hallmarks of a high-potential development-stage gold asset: grade, scale, jurisdiction, infrastructure, and strategic backing. Cartier is also actively pursuing parallel value-creation opportunities, including the reprocessing of legacy tailings at the Chimo site and monetization of non-core assets like Wilson, Fenton and Benoist.

Company Highlights

• District-Scale Gold Project: Cadillac: Cartier’s core asset consolidates the former Chimo Mine and East Cadillac properties into a district-scale land package on the prolific Larder Lake-Cadillac Fault — host to more than 100 million ounces of historic gold production.
• Aggressive Exploration Program: In 2025, Cartier launched a 100,000-meter drill program — one of the largest in the region — to expand its substantial gold resources and unlock Cadillac’s camp-scale potential.
• Innovation in Discovery: The company is leveraging AI-assisted mineral discovery tools, in partnership with VRIFY, to sharpen drill targeting and accelerate new discoveries.
• Strategic Partnership with Agnico Eagle: Agnico Eagle, Cartier’s largest shareholder with a 28 percent equity stake, provides financial strength and validates the company’s assets and strategy.
• ESG-Friendly Tailings Reprocessing: Cartier has introduced a low-capex initiative to evaluate reprocessing 600,000 tons of historic tailings, representing a potential near-term revenue stream with ESG benefits.
• Attractive Valuation With a clean share structure and a market cap of C$52.9 million, Cartier offers significant re-rating potential as exploration and development catalysts unfold.

Key Projects

Cadillac Project

The company’s flagship Cadillac project is a consolidated land package totaling 11,525 hectares, located along a 15-kilometre strike of the Larder Lake–Cadillac Fault (LLCF) — one of the most productive gold-bearing structures in Canada. This fault zone has historically produced over 100 million ounces of gold across multiple camps. Cartier’s land package includes the past-producing Chimo Mine (379,012 oz gold from 1964 to 1997), West Nordeau, and several new discovery zones over a 10-km strike length straddling the LLCF.

Cartier has completed four mineral resource estimates (MREs) between 2019 and 2022. The most recent, published in May 2023, outlined 7.1 million tons (Mt) @ 3.1 grams per ton (g/t) gold (720,000 oz) indicated and 18.5 Mt @ 2.8 g/t gold (1.63 Moz) inferred. The PEA evaluated an underground mining operation fed from three primary zones (Chimo, East Chimo, West Nordeau), with a 2.9-year payback on a C$341 million capex. The PEA assumes an average head grade of 3.0 g/t gold and annual production of 116,900 oz gold. Infrastructure advantages include an existing shaft, power line and permitted tailings facility.

Cartier Resources has commenced its fully funded 100,000-metre drill program at the Cadillac Project in Quebec, the largest ever on the property. The 18-month campaign is designed to both expand known gold zones and test new high-priority targets along the Cadillac Fault Zone. With $11 million in cash and no debt, Cartier is well positioned to advance Cadillac’s district-scale gold potential.

Chimo Tailings Project

As part of Cartier’s sustainability-focused development strategy, the company is evaluating the potential for reprocessing approximately 600,000 tons of historical tailings deposited during the Chimo Mine operations. This project could unlock near-term, low-cost production with a minimal environmental footprint. Cartier will launch metallurgical characterization to assess gold recovery potential and economic viability. The project benefits from proximity to several underutilized gold mills in the Val-d’Or region, potentially enabling toll milling agreements.

Other Projects: Wilson, Fenton and Benoist

Cartier also holds 100 percent ownership of three additional gold projects — Wilson, Fenton and Benoist — all located within the Abitibi Belt and each hosting historical gold mineralization or compliant resources. The Wilson Project (1,750 ha, three zones), Fenton (671 ha, 12 zones) and Benoist (3,086 ha, two zones) are currently available for joint ventures or sale. These assets offer significant exploration upside and optionality, allowing Cartier to remain focused on Cadillac while preserving long-term value.

Management Team

Philippe Cloutier – Founder, President, CEO and Director

Philippe Cloutier is the founder and driving force behind Cartier Resources. A professional geologist with over 35 years of experience in the exploration and development of precious and base metal deposits, Cloutier has a deep technical understanding of the Abitibi Greenstone Belt, having spent most of his career advancing projects in this prolific region.

Nancy Lacoursière – Chief Financial Officer

Nancy Lacoursière brings over 20 years of experience in corporate finance, accounting and strategic financial management. She has held CFO and senior finance positions across the natural resources and manufacturing sectors, with a strong focus on Quebec-based operations.

Ronan Déroff – VP of Exploration

Ronan Déroff is a senior exploration geologist and Cartier’s designated qualified person under NI 43-101. With over 15 years of experience in mineral exploration, resource modeling, GIS and project management, Déroff leads the technical execution of Cartier’s exploration strategy. He has overseen the development of multiple MREs and PEAs for the Cadillac project, and played a central role in integrating modern data analysis and AI-assisted targeting into the company’s workflow. He holds a Masters in operations and management of mineral resources (EGERM), from the Université d’Orléans (France).

Biopharma M&A activity picks up

In a Q3 report on M&A activity, Oppenheimer notes that biopharma market sentiment showed an upward trajectory during the quarter, with expectations that deal flow will continue to increase through the end of 2025.

William Blair, a global investment banking and asset management firm specializing in biopharma investments, also notes an uptick in momentum in a recap of Q2 activity in the biopharma space, citing positive clinical data, a wave of public M&A activity and more clarity on tariffs and drug pricing as catalysts.

Total M&A transaction value reached US$38 billion for the quarter, according to data analyzed by Oppenheimer, including US$20 billion in September alone. Clinical-stage acquisitions saw their strongest quarter since late 2023, driven by early stage assets in the oncology, immunology and cardiovascular-metabolic areas.

The central nervous system space saw a pause in deals for the first time since the beginning of 2024, reflecting shifting investment priorities. Small molecules and antibodies maintained their leading positions as prevalent treatment modalities in deals, while emergents like bispecific antibodies, multi-specific antibody-drug conjugates and CAR-T therapies gained traction. However, the overall M&A market for antibody-drug conjugates remained cautious, with the exception of Seribant Therapeutics’ acquisition of Y-mAbs Therapeutics for US$412 million.

Public company takeouts continued to outnumber private company acquisitions for the second consecutive quarter; however, private companies still attracted strong interest from investors after a sluggish first half of 2025.

Oppenheimer’s Private Placement Activity report notes that a significant increase was observed in September, with companies with a clinical pipeline and a platform commanding the highest valuations.

Strategic partnerships between established pharmaceutical leaders and innovative biotech firms continued to underscore the ongoing efforts by pharma leaders to build and diversify their pipelines.

Roche Holding (OTCQX:RHHBY,SWX:ROG) and Zealand Pharma (OTC Pink:ZLDPY,CPH:ZEAL) entered into an agreement to co-develop and co-commercialize weight-loss drug candidate petrelintide in a deal valued at up to US$5.3 billion, reflecting ongoing interest in weight-management therapies, despite market challenges and competitive pressure.

Meanwhile, Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) agreed to co-develop and co-commercialize a novel cancer immunotherapy targeting multiple tumor types in a deal worth up to US$11 billion, and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) partnered with 3SBio (OTC Pink:TRSBF,HKEX:1530) to advance a new cancer drug candidate.

Both agreements highlight ongoing efforts to expand oncology treatment options.

Cell and gene therapies continued to draw investor attention, and the central nervous system space saw an increase in average deal size. William Blair notes that cell and gene therapies remain a priority area for venture capital investors, as well as public market investors, despite regulatory complexities.

Initial public offering (IPO) activity rebounded meaningfully in Q3 after a quieter first half of 2025, with LB Pharmaceuticals’ (NASDAQ:LBRX) September offering serving as a marker of renewed capital markets appetite.

Secondary public offerings and clinical-stage private financings also increased, fueled by promising clinical data and expanding investor participation, including from international markets such as China.

In parallel, funding for AI-driven drug discovery platforms continued to capture investor interest, with rounds for companies like Isomorphic Labs, Pathos and Lila Sciences.

Regulatory and policy developments

US President Donald Trump’s second term has brought a shift to more business-friendly stances, impacting healthcare M&A and trade. The Federal Trade Commission has signaled intentions to ease antitrust scrutiny, potentially speeding up big pharma and biotech dealmaking and encouraging higher transaction volumes that consolidate the sector.

A central policy focus is the onshoring of biopharmaceutical manufacturing, with the administration actively pursuing tariff negotiations to reduce import costs and bolster supply chain resilience. The landmark deal between the government and Pfizer to lower drug prices in Medicaid in exchange for tariff relief exemplifies this dual approach.

These tariff adjustments are designed to ease the burden on drug importation costs, incentivizing companies to invest more domestically while managing global supply chain risks. Lara Castleton, US head of portfolio construction and strategy at Janus Henderson Investors, has identified this agreement as “the catalyst for healthcare.” She further suggests that the sector is likely overdue for a comeback, having lagged behind the tech market earlier in the year.

Trump has emphasized the expectation that other pharma companies will follow suit, intensifying onshoring efforts. As of September 30, large pharma had committed roughly US$368 billion to US-based manufacturing facilities.

Additionally, the FDA approved 45 new drug applications in Q3, marking a notable increase from previous quarters. This surge was driven by accelerated approvals, largely in the gene and cell therapy sectors, as well as innovative biologics targeting rare diseases and oncology.

Biotech and pharma market forecast for 2025

The biotech and pharma sectors entered Q4 on firm footing. Supportive market dynamics are expected to persist as the year continues, with 2025 on track to reach US$93 billion in total transaction value.

Several catalysts are poised to shape the healthcare landscape moving forward.

An anticipated IPO from MapLight Therapeutics, focusing on neurology therapies, will reveal investor appetite for specialty pharma assets in a market that had a bullish close to Q3, but faces questions about sustaining momentum.

On the regulatory front, FDA decisions are expected for a handful of treatments in gene and cell therapy, as well as oncology. Approvals are expected to accelerate, bolstered by programs aimed at speeding up evaluations of novel treatments like CRISPR-based medicines, stem cell research and nutraceuticals.

Leadership changes may also foster innovation in unconventional medical fields such as stem cell research and nutraceuticals. Amid an evolving regulatory and political landscape, Reed Jobs has advocated for sustained public funding to fuel biomedical progress, delivering a key congressional address on National Institutes of Health protection in September. Beyond advocacy, he is also building a nearly US$1 billion biotech fund focused on next-generation cancer therapies, highlighting the vital intersection of public research funding and private sector innovation.

Policy clarity around drug pricing reforms and Medicaid tariff relief will critically influence commercial access and pricing dynamics. The GLP-1 sector remains under the spotlight following the announcement of Trump’s plans to reduce the monthly cost of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy to US$150.

AI’s expanding role in drug discovery, clinical trial design and digital therapeutics will continue to inspire industry innovation, likely attracting significant funding and fostering new collaborations.

However, volatility related to regulatory appointments, trade uncertainties and notably the ongoing US federal government shutdown presents near-term challenges. Investors and industry participants will closely monitor clinical data and regulatory shifts to navigate the evolving landscape successfully.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$110,645, a 0.3 percent increase in 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$109,873, and its highest was US$111,266.

Bitcoin price performance, October 24, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Bitcoin’s medium-sized investors are continuing to buy even after the US$19 billion liquidation event earlier this month, preserving the market’s long-term bullish structure, according to CryptoQuant.

Entities holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have added roughly 907,000 BTC over the past year, which analysts say represents a strong accumulation trend that historically aligns with upward price momentum.

Recent price action reflects this institutional backing, with Bitcoin reclaiming levels above US$110,000 amid softer inflation data and improved market sentiment. However, CryptoQuant warned that short-term demand is softening as the cohort’s 30-day balance has fallen below its moving average, suggesting potential near-term caution until a catalyst, such as renewed exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, emerges.

Ether (ETH) was priced at US$3,928.56, a 1.8 percent increase in 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$3,872.67, and its highest was US$3,968.61.

Altcoin price update

• Solana (SOL) was priced at US$193.09, at its highest valuation of the day, up by 0.9 percent over the last 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$189.23.

• XRP was trading for US$2.51, an increase of 4.2 percent over the last 24 hours and its highest valuation of the day. Its lowest was US$2.46.

Crypto derivatives and market indicators

The cryptocurrency market has experienced some fluctuations with a mixed but generally cautious outlook. The crypto derivatives market has shown some signs of recovery and increased activity after the earlier October volatility.

Liquidations for contracts tracking Bitcoin have totaled approximately US$5.89 million in the last four hours, the majority of which have been short positions, indicating a possible short squeeze or short-covering rally.

This aligns with Bitcoin’s price rebound and trader repositioning after recent dips.

Ether liquidations showed a different pattern; its US$7.01 million liquidations were fairly evenly split between long and short positions, suggesting balanced market dynamics and some ongoing indecision or consolidation.

Futures open interest for Bitcoin was up by 0.4 percent to US$71.27 billion over four hours, indicating growing trader interest and increasing liquidity, with a slight decrease in the final hour of trading. Ether futures open interest moved by +0.86 percent to US$45.94 billion, also showing a modest pullback as markets closed.

The funding rate remains positive, with both Bitcoin and Ether showing it at 0.005, a sign of modest bullish sentiment but not extreme leverage. Bitcoin’s relative strength index stood at 55.4, in a neutral to slightly bullish momentum phase, further supporting a stable recovery rather than a parabolic move.

Fear and Greed Index snapshot

CMC’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index has slightly trended upwards into 32, but remains in fear territory, an improvement from this week’s lowest score (25).

CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index, Bitcoin price and Bitcoin volume.

Chart via CoinMarketCap

Today’s crypto news to know

Trump pardons Binance founder

US President Donald Trump has granted a full pardon to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, wiping away his 2024 conviction for violating US anti-money laundering laws. Zhao, better known as “CZ,” served four months in prison and had been barred from running financial ventures under the plea deal.

The move follows months of lobbying by Binance, which paid a record US$4.3 billion fine as part of its own settlement with federal prosecutors. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the case “a politically motivated overreach by the Biden administration,” insisting the pardon was meant to correct an injustice.

Critics argue the decision reflects Trump’s growing financial ties to the crypto industry, citing his personal investments and recent push for a “national cryptocurrency reserve.” Zhao thanked Trump on social media, saying he is “deeply grateful” for the decision and eager to “continue supporting innovation responsibly.”

Bitfarms surges on Jane Street investment

Crypto miner Bitfarms (TSX:BITF) saw its shares surge on Friday after trading firm Jane Street said it has acquired a 5.4 percent ownership stake in the company, as well as a 5 percent stake in Cipher Mining (NASDAQ:CIFR).

This move from a major institutional market maker, known for its strategic investments in the digital asset space, highlights the growing institutional involvement in cryptocurrency mining businesses and their expanding role within the tech sector’s market rally.

Polymarket confirms POLY token launch

Prediction platform Polymarket has confirmed plans to launch its long-awaited POLY token following a US$2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

Speaking on the Degenz Live podcast, Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber said both the token and airdrop are “officially in motion,” confirming rumors that have swirled for months.

Modabber emphasized that the launch will prioritize real utility and “long-term viability,” aligning with Polymarket’s push to relaunch its US app after receiving fresh regulatory clearance.

Sygnum Bank, Debifi partner for multiSYG Bitcoin lending product

Sygnum Bank has partnered with Debifi, a Bitcoin-backed lending platform, to introduce MultiSYG, a new multisignature Bitcoin lending product slated for launch in the first half of 2026.

MultiSYG allows clients to borrow fiat currencies against their Bitcoin holdings. These Bitcoin assets are held in a 3-of-5 multisig escrow wallet, with keys distributed to the borrower, Sygnum and independent signers. This structure ensures borrowers maintain partial control and on-chain cryptographic proof of their collateral for the loan term.

The product is designed to enhance transparency and security in lending by preventing rehypothecation and eliminating the need for blind trust in custodians, which are common issues in traditional lending practices. MultiSYG is specifically tailored for institutional and high-net-worth clients seeking bank-grade terms and flexible loan services.

JPMorgan to let institutions borrow against Bitcoin, Ether holdings

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is preparing to let its institutional clients borrow cash using Bitcoin and Ether as collateral. Set to launch by the end of 2025, the initiative will allow the firm’s clients to pledge cryptocurrencies directly rather than through ETFs, using a third-party custodian to safeguard tokens.

The pilot follows successful internal testing involving BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT) earlier this year. JPMorgan already accepts crypto-linked ETFs as loan collateral.

Crypto.com applies for national trust bank charter

Crypto.com has applied to the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a National Trust Bank Charter.

This federal charter would enable Crypto.com to provide regulated crypto financial services across the US, including custody and staking. The company plans to focus on institutional clients, offering solutions such as digital asset treasuries, ETFs and corporate custody. This move signifies Crypto.com’s progression towards compliance with traditional financial regulations and the expansion of its regulated presence in the US.

Cobalt price, October 25, 2024, to October 23, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

Much of the cobalt story this year has been dominated by the February export suspension out of the DRC, which supplies roughly three-quarters of the world’s cobalt. The initial curtailment was expected to last four months in an effort to rein in oversupply and stem a price plunge below US$10 per pound, the lowest point in over 20 years.

The supply glut has been attributed to a surge in output driven largely by China’s CMOC Group (OTC Pink:CMCLF, SHA:603993), which has rapidly expanded production at two major DRC mines.

Cobalt supply expected to swing from surplus to balance

Cobalt supply has surged over the past five years, with global mine production more than doubling from 140,000 metric tons in 2020 to 290,000 metric tons in 2024. The bulk of this growth has come out of DRC, with annual output rising from 175,000 metric tons in 2023 to 220,000 metric tons in 2024. This rapid growth has far outpaced demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector and other end-use industries, resulting in significant market oversupply.

In June, the DRC extended its export halt through September, a move that supported higher price levels.

“Trade statistics for cobalt hydroxide imports into China in June showed the first drop in material following the export ban enforcement in late February,” wrote Fastmarkets’ Rob Searle in a June market update.

“With a typical lead time of around three months, we expected June to be the first month of lower volumes. Cobalt hydroxide imports fell 62 percent in June and are expected to remain at low levels through to the end of December or early 2026. Should the export ban end as planned on September 22, the end of the year is the earliest we can expect to see new feed into the Chinese market from the DRC,’ the battery metals expert continued.

As the deadline for the export halt extension drew near, prices began to climb amid rumors that officials in Kinshashe would implement quotas to continue curbing the market saturation.

After eight months of restricted trade, the Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets (ARECOMS), announced it was enacting a quota system aimed at stabilizing global supply and prices.

The output cap will permit the export of 18,125 metric tons of DRC cobalt for the remainder of 2025.

“In 2026, the annual quota is set at 96,600t, of which 87,000t will be distributed to producers on a pro rata basis, with 9,600t retained under ARECOMS’ discretionary control,” a September Benchmark Mineral Intelligence report notes. “The framework will run through 2027, with adjustments possible if officials deem the market ‘imbalanced.”

The restrictions lifted cobalt prices to a 32 month high of US$48,570 on October 23.

Strong cobalt demand projected for next two years

Although the cobalt market remains oversupplied, demand has steadily increased alongside ballooning output, reaching record levels of more than 200,000 metric tons in 2024.

“The primary growth driver of this (growth) is the electric vehicle market, combined with portables, which is the second biggest battery market,” explained Benchmark’s William Talbot during a July Cobalt Institute webinar.

The alloy and military applications segment also experienced growth.

Talbot went on to note that despite reports that EV demand is waning in some regions, broad demand remains robust, and EVs that utilize cobalt battery chemistries “are still growing at pace.”

“If we look at the EV picture year-to-date in 2025, we’ve had more than 30 percent growth compared to the same period last year in unit terms,” he explained.

Cobalt price growth to continue into 2026

The cobalt market is entering a phase of continued volatility and structural change, shaped by shifting supply sources, evolving policy frameworks and growing geopolitical tension, as per Benchmark’s Talbot and the Cobalt Institute.

Looking ahead, Benchmark expects Indonesia to overtake the DRC as the key source of new supply by the late 2020s, as projects such as Kalimantan Ferro Nickel ramp up and few new developments emerge in the DRC.

On the demand side, Talbot said the outlook remains “fairly robust,” with EV growth driving consumption, despite some policy headwinds in the US. He pointed to China’s planned ban on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery technology, which he said “is supportive of cobalt-containing chemistries” such as nickel cobalt manganese (NCM).

Rising geopolitical tensions are also reshaping the cobalt supply chain.

“Major players are increasingly cognizant of where their materials come from,” Talbot said, citing new US and European investment in strategic and ESG-compliant cobalt projects.

Talbot added that the cobalt value chain has made “leaps and bounds” in sustainability, with roughly 80 percent of refined cobalt now assessed under the Responsible Minerals Initiative — a key factor for automakers and original equipment manufacturers under tightening compliance requirements.

While Benchmark remains cautious with projections, analysts at Project Blue say cobalt prices could rebound sharply in 2026 and 2027 as the DRC enforces its new export cap of 96,600 metric tons per year.

“Such constraints could lift cobalt prices toward historical real levels of over US$20 per pound,” reads a Project Blue report, noting that the quota “came in lower than many expected,” but aligns with its call for a rebalanced market.

According to Project Blue, at least 100,000 metric tons of exports would be needed next year to maintain equilibrium. Accounting for shipping delays and processing losses, only 85,000 to 90,000 metric tons are expected to reach end users — creating a structural deficit that should continue to support prices. The quota framework could also spur domestic refining as export restrictions make long-term storage of cobalt hydroxide costly.

Industry observers warn that producers — especially copper-cobalt miners such as CMOC — may need to adopt financial hedging and adjust production plans to navigate the added bureaucracy and potential export delays.

Similarly, Fastmarkets expects the DRC’s new rules to support cobalt prices, which have already soared more than 240 percent since February, Alexander Cook wrote in an LME Week recap. Fastmarkets assessed cobalt hydroxide prices at US$19.50 to US$20.20 on October 14, up from just US$5.65 in February.

The restrictions have sharply curtailed available volumes — much of which are already locked into long-term contracts — leaving the spot market increasingly constrained, wrote Cook.

Market participants expect further gains, though analysts caution that such elevated prices could push some battery makers to accelerate the shift toward cobalt-free chemistries such as LFP.

While the quota system has bolstered prices in the short term, the long-term outlook remains uncertain.

Analysts note that cobalt’s fate is increasingly tied to copper market dynamics and the pace of EV demand recovery, with downstream buyers and automakers reassessing cobalt’s role in next-generation batteries.