Source: the White House.

Tariffs are not inflation

Trump’s tariffs have added to uncertainty, but they are not inflationary per se. The famous Nobel Prize-winning monetary economist, Milton Friedman, summarized what he had learned from the most comprehensive empirical study ever undertaken on inflation in the following quote:

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. A steady rate of monetary growth at a moderate level [may allow] little inflation and much growth.”

Another monetary economist of the 20th century, but not quite as famous as Friedman, was Ludwig von Mises. He agreed with the first half of the quote above, but not the second. He also supported a gold standard, as seen below, as protection from inflation and accompanying boom-bust cycles:

“All economic activity is based upon an uncertain future. It is therefore bound up with risk.” Thus: “There is no such thing as a safe investment.” But: “The…gold standard alone is a truly effective check on the power of the government to inflate the currency.”

Tariffs are just taxes

A student of Mises was Murray Rothbard. The latter wrote in Power and Market that the burden of a sales tax falls entirely on the supplier and supply chain, not the consumers, yet tariffs inexplicably do the opposite. The former is closer to the truth, depending on elasticities.

Media pundits often claim that businesses pass forward tax increases, like tariffs, to consumers. This is a half-truth. The other half of this half-truth is that businesses take a hit, so that they invest and hire less. This means foreign businesses, more than American consumers.

And rather than just a 50/50 split between supply and demand, as per the graph below, economics and history show it is more like an 80/20 situation. That 80 includes a pass backward in the supply chain. This means foreign supply chains, more than American supply chains.

Source: SlidePlayer.

Rationale for Trump’s tariffs

Trump’s tariffs have created extra uncertainty, but not nearly as much as the neoliberals, on the left or right, would suggest by their outrage and alarm. Firstly, imports and import elasticities are relatively low in the US.

Secondly, Trump’s strategy is consistent with the same three exceptions to free trade, and in the same order, as did the classical liberal, and godfather of free trade economics, Adam Smith.

The first exception is not only about directly decoupling from communist China, for targeted defense purposes, but also indirectly, for broader strategic purposes, by weakening the Communist Party of China to the point of regime change, as Reagan did to the USSR.

The second and third exceptions, of reciprocity and retaliation, are part of the “art of the deal.” This three-pronged strategy, despite the outcry as being anti-free trade, is not only trying to put America first, but also to restore genuine free trade. It is a well-calculated risk.

Impact of these tariffs

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in its press release of July 17: “Import prices ticked up 0.1% in June, following a decrease of 0.4% in May, and an advance of 0.1% in April.”

The BLS added that: “Prices for US imports fell 0.2% from June 2024 to June 2025, matching the 12- month decline for the year ended May 2025. Those were the largest annual decreases since the index fell 0.9% for the year ended February 2024.”

The BLS also provided an interactive chart of the Import Price Index (IPI). Highlights from the Trump 47 era for “all imports” include: IPI increased, but at a declining rate, by 1.7 percent in February, 0.8 percent in March and 0.1 percent in April; then decreased by -0.2 percent in May and -0.2 percent in June.

“Consumer goods” are also illuminating: IPI dropped from 1.2 percent in November 2024 to -0.8 percent in March 2025; then sunk further to -1.2 percent in May before rising to -0.6 percent in June, but still negative.

The story with “industrial supplies and materials” was that: IPI grew at 5.7 percent in February, then plunged to 1.9 percent in March; followed by shrinking down into negative territory of -2 percent in April, -3.6 percent in May and -3.2 percent in June.

Source: BLS.

Conclusion

Many Main Street investors, and even those on Wall Street, are aware that gold is a great hedge against both inflation and uncertainty; and it is. But few on either streets also know that it is a great investment that outperforms the S&P Index; and it does.

Gold is very rare indeed, and not just in terms of its physical scarcity, but in its unique ability to be both a safe-haven investment and a performance investment as well. The two charts at the end demonstrate gold’s protection and gold’s growth over the decades.

Therefore, for American investors it is still the right time to “trust” in gold growth to come, “but verify” through gold protection in the meantime. Thus, when one has gold, “heads” you win and “tails” you don’t lose.

Sources: FRED (CPI) (GDP) (M3); Shiller Data (S&P); World Bank (gold).

About Darren Brady Nelson

Darren Brady Nelson is chief economist with Fisher Liberty Gold and policy advisor to The Heartland Institute. He previously was economic advisor to Australian Senator Malcolm Roberts. He authored the Ten Principles of Regulation and Reform, and the CPI-X approach to budget cuts.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$116,546, a 3.9 percent increase in 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$112,019, and its highest was US$117,310.

Bitcoin price performance, August 22, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

The crypto market rallied after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium offered clues that the Fed may be preparing to lower interest rates in September.

Bitcoin jumped from US$112,000 to US$116,000 in just over an hour. The current situation with inflation and the labor market, Powell said, “may warrant adjusting” the Fed’s monetary policy stance.

Powell cited a “curious balance” in the labor market, with reduced worker supply and demand increasing employment risks, while also noting that tariffs’ visible impact on consumer prices is likely to be short-lived.

However, he signaled that the central bank remains cautious of potential lasting inflation, emphasizing the need to balance its dual mandates when goals conflict.

The Fed also revised its monetary policy, stating that low unemployment alone will not trigger rate hikes. They removed language suggesting tolerance for inflation above 2 percent to offset past undershoots and no longer described low interest rates as a “defining feature” of the economy, offering greater flexibility in a volatile post-pandemic economy.

According to the CME Group Fedwatch tool, the probability of an interest rate cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting has surged to over 83 percent, up from 75 percent just yesterday.

Likewise, Ether (ETH) gained over 10 percent following Powell’s remarks, rising above the week-long US$4,600 resistance and forming a bull flag pattern, with analysts projecting potential highs around US$6,000.

ETH was priced at US$4,843.61, up by 14.5 percent over the past 24 hours, and its highest valuation of the day. Its lowest valuation was US$4,254.24.

Altcoin price update

• Solana (SOL) was priced at US$199.01, up by 10.5 percent over 24 hours to its highest valuation of the day. Its lowest was US$178.52.

• XRP was trading for US$3.09, up by 7.9 percent in the past 24 hours, and its highest valuation of the day. Its lowest was US$282.

• Sui (SUI) was trading at US$3.74, up by 9.5 percent over the past 24 hours, following market trends by reaching its highest valuation as the markets wrapped. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$3.33.

• Cardano (ADA) was also trading at its highest valuation on Friday at US$0.9334, up by 9.5 percent over 24 hours. Its lowest valuation for the day was US$0.8332.

Today’s crypto news to know

Coinbase approves Trump-backed stablecoin

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) has listed USD1, a stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, the crypto project linked to US President Donald Trump and his sons. The exchange announced the move on Thursday (August 21), while Eric Trump reposted the news on X and hinted that additional updates on the project are coming soon.

With the addition, Coinbase now offers US users a wide range of stablecoins, including USDT, USDC, PYUSD, DAI and others. World Liberty launched USD1 earlier this year as part of its push into decentralized finance, positioning the token for use in a forthcoming platform built on Ethereum with Aave technology.

The platform is not yet live, but the company has said it will eventually support lending and borrowing services.

The listing comes as the US stablecoin sector gains momentum following the passage of the GENIUS Act, which set national standards for stablecoin issuance and trading.

Still, World Liberty’s political connections remain controversial, especially after reports linked USD1 to a multibillion-dollar investment in Binance from an Abu Dhabi sovereign fund.

House moves to prohibit Fed from issuing CBDC

The US House of Representatives has added a provision to a defense policy bill for the 2026 fiscal year that would ban the Fed from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). On Thursday, the House Rules Committee released a revised version of HR 3838, the House’s rendition of a bill enacting the National Defense Authorization Act.

It incorporates extensive wording that prohibits the Fed from researching or developing digital currency.

In July, the House narrowly passed the Republican-backed Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which aims to prevent the Fed from issuing a digital currency, with a vote of 219 to 210. Its fate in the Senate remains uncertain.

The National Defense Authorization Act and its associated appropriations bills are considered essential national security legislation. They detail the military’s funding and budget allocation. Adding this provision from the anti-CBDC bill is a strategic maneuver by supporters of the CBDC ban to increase the likelihood of it passing into law.

CFTC seeks public input on spot crypto trading regulations

Caroline D. Pham, acting chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is calling for public input from crypto market participants on how the agency can better regulate spot crypto trading.

“The public feedback will assist the CFTC in carefully considering relevant issues for leveraged, margined or financed retail trading on a CFTC-registered exchange as we implement the President’s directive,” Pham said on Thursday.

Comments may be submitted via the commission’s website until October 20.

This marks the second leg of the CFTC’s “crypto sprint,” an initiative to fast track the implementation of a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and other digital assets in the US. Last month, the agency announced that it would explore enabling the trading of spot crypto asset contracts on CFTC-registered futures exchanges.

Ripple, SBI to bring RLUSD to Japan

Ripple and SBI Holdings (TSE:8473) unveiled plans on Thursday to bring Ripple USD (RLUSD) to Japan.

Their aim is to launch the stablecoin in early 2026. The rollout will be handled by SBI VCTrade, a licensed digital payments provider, under Japan’s new regulatory framework for stablecoins.

RLUSD, first introduced in December 2024, is backed by dollar deposits, short-term US treasuries and cash equivalents, with monthly attestations from an independent firm. Ripple says this design ensures regulatory clarity and sets the coin apart as an institutional-grade product. SBI executives described the partnership as a milestone for Japan’s financial system, stressing that the stablecoin will enhance trust and convenience for users.

Ripple officials framed RLUSD as a bridge between traditional finance and decentralized networks, particularly just days after Japan approved its first yen-based stablecoin.

ECB explores public blockchains for digital euro

The European Central Bank (ECB) is reportedly exploring major public blockchain networks, including Ethereum and Solana, in connection with its digital euro design.

Sources familiar with the matter told the Financial Times that EU officials are accelerating plans for a digital euro after the passage of the GENIUS Act deepened concerns regarding the competitive viability of a European digital currency.

Sources familiar with the matter told the news outlet that while a private blockchain was widely expected for the digital euro, a public option is now being considered more seriously.

Meanwhile, the ECB informed the Financial Times that it is exploring both centralized and decentralized technologies, including distributed ledger technologies, in the lead up to a final decision.

Austrac directs Binance to appoint external auditor

Binance is facing renewed scrutiny in Australia after the country’s financial watchdog directed it to appoint an external auditor. AUSTRAC said the exchange has failed to meet standards for anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing controls, citing gaps in oversight and risk management. The agency also pointed to Binance’s high staff turnover and limited senior management presence in Australia as red flags.

AUSTRAC Chief Brendan Thomas warned that global crypto exchanges must adapt to local compliance requirements, regardless of their size. The action adds to a growing list of regulatory challenges for Binance worldwide, including a record US$4.3 billion fine in the US last year for failing to block illicit users.

The company’s founder, Changpeng Zhao, is serving a four month prison sentence related to those violations. Meanwhile, in Nigeria, Binance is still battling tax evasion and illegal foreign exchange allegations, with a court trial pushed back to October.