Gold price, April 1 to July 10, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

The price of gold started the second quarter on a downswing, falling below the US$3,000 mark by April 8, but quickly found momentum and soared to its quarterly high of US$3,434.40 on April 21.

It broke through the US$3,500 threshold briefly during the day’s trading session.

However, the gains were temporary, and gold once again fell; by May 1, it had dropped to US$3,237.30.

The metal saw a slight rebound to US$3,400.70 before the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve, but it came under pressure after that and had fallen to US$3,185 by May 14.

The end of May saw more tailwinds for the gold price, pushing it first to US$3,358 by May 23, then to US$3,381.70 by June 2. By the middle of the month, it was back to trading above US$3,400. Since that time, the precious metal has remained mainly above the US$3,300 level, closing the quarter at US$3,303.30 on June 30.

Tariff uncertainty helps boost gold price

The biggest story from the first quarter has carried over into the second quarter: tariffs.

Since the start of his second term in the Oval Office, US President Donald Trump has applied the threat of tariffs like a cudgel in trade talks with other countries. His long-held belief is that other nations, even longtime allies, are benefiting from trade with the US, while the US itself is facing detrimental effects.

During the first quarter of the year, the Trump administration levied tariff threats against Canada and Mexico. While most of his promised import fees were dialed back at the eleventh hour, a 25 percent tax was still applied to imports of Canadian steel and aluminum, as well as non-CUSMA-compliant automobiles and parts.

On April 2, Trump announced a broader set of tariffs on nearly every country in the world, regardless of trade status with the US. Dubbed “Liberation Day” by Trump, the executive order applied a baseline 10 percent fee to all imports from most countries to the US, plus significant reciprocal measures against countries with the largest trade deficits.

The new measures, set to be implemented on April 9, created panic among investors, causing a global market meltdown. Fear also spread to US debt holders, such as Japan and Canada, which began to sell US treasuries, pushing up the 10 year bond yield. Spooked investors rapidly flocked to gold, pushing the price to record highs above US$3,400.

“The bond market understands that Washington is so broken and the debt situation is so bad,’ he explained. ‘It varies in degrees compared to other countries, but everybody’s in the same boat. That’s why gold all of a sudden … gold is the safe haven now, even more than treasuries. And I don’t think a lot of people every thought they’d see that again.’

Ultimately, the stock market turmoil and the shift in bond market sentiment brought about a quick reversal from Trump, who paused his tariff plans for 90 days. Although the gold price showed signs of easing as market participants calmed, the metal remained high through the end of the quarter as uncertainty remained near the surface.

The pause was set to expire on July 9, but the White House announced a last-minute extension delaying the implementation of the tariffs on all but 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea and South Africa.

However, there are still underlying concerns.

The US-China trade war, which raged through much of the first half of the year, was put on hold on May 12 after tariffs between the two largest economies reached their peak, adding headwinds to the gold price. Up to that point, the US had levied a 145 percent import tax on Chinese goods while China had applied a 125 percent tax on US imports.

Although tensions have stabilized since the pause, on July 7, China warned the US against reigniting conflicts. China also said it would retaliate against any country that makes deals with the US to China’s detriment.

Geopolitical tensions erupt in the Middle East

Financial uncertainty was a key driver of the gold price through the second quarter as investors sought to diversify their portfolios amid a chaotic investment landscape, but it wasn’t the only factor.

Geopolitical tensions also played a significant role, particularly in the Middle East.

With the Israel-Gaza conflict now past 18 months, the larger fear was that it would spill into a broader regional war.

Those fears were stoked in late May, when there was speculation that Israel was preparing to attack nuclear facilities in Iran. The news helped pull gold out of monthly lows as more investors sought the safety of the metal.

Ultimately, the speculation was true — on June 12, Israel launched attacks against key nuclear sites in Iran, causing Iran to launch counterattacks against targets in Israel and providing further tailwinds for the gold price.

What’s driving demand for gold?

Other support for the gold price came from continued purchases from central banks.

According to World Gold Council data, central banks bought 244 metric tons of gold in Q1. The amount was 24 percent higher than the five year quarterly average, but 9 percent lower than the average from the last three years.

The largest first quarter gold buyers were the National Bank of Poland, which added 49 metric tons of the metal to its holdings, increasing its total to 497 metric tons. This was followed by the People’s Bank of China, which purchased 13 metric tons, bringing its reported gold reserves to 2,292 metric tons

In another report, the World Gold Council indicates that despite high prices, central banks continued to buy gold in May, albeit at a slightly reduced pace, with a net 20 metric tons entering their reserves.

But it’s not just central banks that are picking up gold.

“In the past, there has been relatively little involvement, even to now, from western retail investors in this move. This has been overwhelmingly led by central banks and large funds,” Temple said.

However, he noted a shift in buying on the back of wider interest, pointing to gold’s popularity at Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST), although he noted, ‘So far, this hasn’t moved the needle significantly.’

Temple added, “Traditionally the big needle mover when you’ve got these larger swings in markets and market sentiment has come from investors who are buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and buying the larger gold stocks, and then ultimately working their way down the food chain and buying the better exploration stories. We finally started in recent months to see some of that where it’s deserved. There have been some really nice moves.’

This idea is echoed in the World Gold Council’s June ETF report, which indicates that ETF flows ended the first half of 2025 with the highest semiannual inflows since the first half of 2020.

The North American movement led the way, with more than US$4.8 billion entering the market in June, bringing the total for the first half of the year to US$21 billion. This was followed by US$2 billion in inflows in Europe, with its first half total reaching US$6 billion. Asian markets added US$610 million with a first-half record of US$11 billion.

Gold price forecast for 2025

The expectation is that the factors that drove the gold price in H1 are unlikely to go away soon.

Trump continues to kick the tariff question down the road. And although a ceasefire has been called between Israel and Iran, tensions in the region are still high. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, with Russia escalating attacks at the start of July, to the point of invoking Trump’s ire.

“We were thinking that by the time you got into June, July, August, not only would you have some seasonal weakness, but you’d also have a situation where financial markets might have calmed down and taken a less pessimistic outlook to the economy, simply because the initial shock of Trump policies was in there and had been digested. What we’re seeing is a prolongation of that shock period.’

Financial uncertainty and conflicts were a theme echoed by Kandoshko.

She pointed to the July 9 — now August 1 — deadline for tariffs as a potential inflection point.

“This could spark another rally in gold prices if trade tensions escalate. I have a feeling that the existing tariffs will gradually push prices up, which might lead the Fed to hold off on cutting rates. In the grand scheme of things, higher inflation is likely to boost gold demand, especially from central banks,” Kandoshko said.

She also believes a weak US dollar will likely be a boon for gold, making it more attractive to overseas buyers.

AI results impact major tech players

In public markets, AI-related equities continued to attract attention.

NVIDIA posted another blockbuster quarter, with its market cap on the cusp of $US4 trillion at the end of June. Its performance was driven largely by demand for Blackwell architecture.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), facing a possible Chrome divestiture, reported an increase in AI-related ad revenue and highlighted growing adoption of its Gemini model suite. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) reported a 23 percent annual increase in net sales from its Amazon Web Services segment, beating earnings estimates by 17.78 percent.

Meta Platforms’ (NASDAQ:META) Reality Labs division reported a $US4.2 billion operating loss; however, interest in embodied AI applications for the metaverse and augmented reality continue to be the company’s long-term play, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg poaching the industry’s top talent to assemble the Meta Superintelligence Lab. On July 7, Reuters reported that the company had added Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Ruoming Pang as its latest recruit.

Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) OpenAI partnership faced issues after OpenAI bought Windsurf, an AI coding firm. Disputes arose over Microsoft’s access to WindSurf’s IP and its stake in a restructured OpenAI.

Q2 was also marked by a shift to AI in hardware, robotics and edge applications.

Chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Google introduced specialized AI accelerators, a potential challenge to NVIDIA’s nearly three year run as the dominant provider.

Notable developments in robotics included Google Cloud and Samsung Electronics’ (KRX:005930) partnership, integrating Google Cloud’s advanced generative AI technology into Samsung’s new home AI companion robot, Ballie.

Data center operators like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud also increased their infrastructure investments in the US as part of an effort to reduce reliance on foreign markets and secure long-term AI compute capacity.

Companies began testing or rolling out new AI agent capabilities, empowered by the Model Context Protocol from Anthropic. Major tech players, along with payment giants Visa (NYSE:V), Mastercard (NYSE:MA), Stripe, Block (NYSE:SQ) and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL), began adopting the Model Context Protocol to integrate seamless payment functionality directly into AI chatbots, moving beyond simple browse to full commerce.

Microsoft enhanced its GitHub Copilot offering with new coding agents capable of autonomous actions, while a handful of companies, including Dataiku, Databricks and Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM), introduced tools designed to build, deploy and manage autonomous systems for real-world enterprise applications.

On the quantum computing side, a paper published by researcher Craig Gidney for Google’s Quantum AI division suggests that a quantum computer could break a highly secure 2048 bit encryption, like the kind used for online banking, much faster than previously thought, requiring fewer than a million qubits.

Quantum computing firms later saw their shares spike following bullish comments from NVIDIA’s Huang at his company’s Paris GTC conference. Before Huang’s comments, IBM (NYSE:IBM) announced its development of the world’s first large-scale, error-free quantum computer, set to launch by 2029.

Graph indicating that investor enthusiasm for AI stocks has recently ‘lost altitude.’

Graph via Picton Investments.

However, the firm also suggests that this shift is redirecting the spotlight to real-world AI applications, leading to an expected acceleration of industrial adoption and the creation of new companies.

At this year’s Web Summit conference in May, panelists emphasized the critical role of strategic early stage investments when it comes to navigating the evolving AI landscape and identifying new opportunities.

“Our take is (that) AI is going to upend a lot of technology businesses. In the specific sense, I am of increasingly high conviction that authoring software is going to be more or less free, and that’s going to shake up the topology of the software business market (in terms of) what makes sense and what’s investable,” said Brett Gibson, managing partner at Initialized Capital, during a panel discussion on where AI investment is headed next.

He added that customizable software will ultimately allow for tailored solutions for virtually any need.

In H2, quantum computing could continue its shift from pure research into early stage commercialization.

Updates may come from firms like IonQ (NYSE:IONQ), which recently raised US$1 billion to expand quantum networking, as well as Quantinuum and PsiQuantum, which may reach technical milestones.

Meanwhile, D-Wave (NYSE:QBTS) is pivoting toward hybrid commercial models, which may offer continued proof of revenue from quantum optimization-as-a-service.

However, the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations between the US and the rest of the world could impact chip capacity and rare earths supply chains, constraining the growth of AI hardware stocks.

The Trump administration’s imposition of 25 percent tariffs on Japan and South Korea may pose a threat to semiconductor capacity and rare earths equipment imports critical for AI hardware.

“Both countries have been close partners on economic security matters and have a lot to offer the United States on priority matters like shipbuilding, semiconductors, critical minerals and energy cooperation,” Asia Society Policy Institute vice president Wendy Cutler said in response to the hikes.

Investor takeaway

The second quarter of the year confirmed an evolution in the AI landscape as the industry moves beyond theoretical discussions to real-world applications and critical infrastructure development.

While geopolitical tensions and concerns about job displacement may continue to present challenges, this pivot could set the stage for continued innovation and adaptation as the industry navigates both opportunities and complexities.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price peaked at US$111,744 as the market wrapped, a 2.7 percent increase in the last 24 hours. The day’s range for the cryptocurrency also brought a low of US$108,644.

Crypto analyst TradingShot believes Bitcoin may not experience another rally this cycle, despite projections exceeding US$160,000. This assessment is based on Bitcoin’s historical four year patterns.

According to TradingShot, Bitcoin has not broken out of its current upward channel to trigger the explosive rallies seen in 2017 and 2021. If the four year cycle holds, time is running out for such a breakout.

Ethereum (ETH) is priced at US$2,772.50, up by 6.3 percent over the past 24 hours. On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency hit a low of US$2,635.74 before rallying to finish the day at its peak, mirroring a broader market trend.

Altcoin price update

Bitcoin price performance, July 9, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

• Solana (SOL) was priced at US$157.12, up by 3.7 percent over 24 hours. Its lowest valuation as of Wednesday was US$153.45.

• XRP was trading for US$2.42, up 4.5 percent in the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency’s lowest valuation was US$2.36

• Sui (SUI) was trading at US$3.05, up by 4.9 percent over the past 24 hours. Its lowest valuation was US$2.93.

• Cardano (ADA) is priced at US$0.6217, up by 5.6 percent in the last 24 hours. Its lowest valuation as of Wednesday was US$0.6027

Today’s crypto news to know

US Senate committee gathers for hearing on digital assets

The US Senate Banking Committee held a hearing on Wednesday dubbed ‘From Wall Street to Web3’ to discuss proposed legislation regarding digital assets, including the Clarity Act.

Massachusetts Democrat Elizabeth Warren, a longtime crypto critic, said she is in favor of laws regulating digital assets that strengthen the financial system in the US, but criticized aspects of the Clarity Act that she said would allow non-crypto companies to “put their stocks on the blockchain,’ evading US Securities and Exchange Commission guidelines.

“That is a serious problem for our country,” she warned.

Ahead of the hearing, Warren sent a statement to analytical publication the Block, accusing Republicans of enabling “industry handouts” to crypto lobbyists. Other vocal critics of the bill include New York Attorney General Letitia James and the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee Maxine Waters.

Both she and Warren have questioned the ethics of US President Donald Trump’s business ties to the industry. At the hearing, former chief White House ethics lawyer Richard Painter, who was invited to speak by Warren, said:

“We cannot have the people who are in charge of passing legislation and enforcing legislation, implementing legislation, have conflicts of interest with their official responsibilities. You should be divesting from crypto if you’re going to be regulating crypto.”

Lawmakers are now facing a September 30 deadline to define cryptocurrencies, address Trump’s crypto interests and finalize industry rules.

RLUSD gains traction via Transak integration and BNY Mellon custody

Transak, a Web3 onboarding infrastructure provider allowing users to buy and sell digital assets using traditional payment methods, officially integrated Ripple’s US-dollar pegged stablecoin, RLUSD.

The move expands the token’s reach to 8.3 million additional users across 64 countries.

“Transak has always strived to make finance truly accessible and that includes bringing on assets like RLUSD that balance blockchain ethos with compliance requirements,” said Sami Start, CEO and co-founder of Transak.

“With this integration, users gain access to one of the most thoughtfully designed stablecoins in the market, now available through a seamless and trusted fiat-to-crypto experience.”

The news was announced the same day Ripple chose Bank of New York Mellon to custody its USD reserves. This move by a traditional financial giant lends significant institutional credibility to Ripple’s stablecoin, which was built as an enterprise-grade stablecoin to improve the efficiency of cross-border transactions.

“As primary custodian for RLUSD, we’re proud to support the growth of digital assets by providing a differentiated platform, designed to meet the evolving needs of institutions in the digital assets ecosystem,” said Emily Portney, global head of asset servicing at Bank of New York Mellon.

South Korea to reclassify crypto businesses as venture companies

South Korea’s Ministry of SMEs and Startups announced Wednesday that it will lift current restrictions preventing crypto-related businesses from qualifying as venture companies. Firms in the virtual asset sector are currently restricted in their eligibility for various tax breaks and financial support due to crypto regulations implemented last year.

However, the minister said that the proposed amendment reflects “a shift in perception” regarding the industry.

“It is expected that the virtual asset business operators based on new technologies with innovation and business viability will be newly recognized as venture companies, and existing venture companies will also be able to promote virtual asset-related businesses,” the statement explains, “which will lead to the activation and expansion of the venture ecosystem and promote the fostering of the virtual asset industry.”

This change will be supported by the establishment of “legal and institutional safeguards” designed to protect users. Public comments on the proposal will be accepted by the ministry until August 18.

Tether reveals it holds US$8 billion in gold in private Swiss vault

Tether, the issuer behind the world’s largest stablecoin, USDT, has disclosed it holds nearly 80 metric tons of gold worth US$8 billion in a private Swiss vault, according to a Bloomberg report.

The company, which manages over US$159 billion in circulating stablecoins, says most of the gold is directly owned by Tether, making it one of the world’s largest private gold holders outside of sovereign institutions.

CEO Paolo Ardoino confirmed the gold is stored in a highly secure location in Switzerland, though he declined to disclose the exact facility for safety reasons.

The firm also operates a gold-backed token called XAUT, with each coin redeemable for one ounce of physical gold.

Tether’s increasing exposure to gold comes amid rising demand for safe-haven assets and ongoing concerns about US debt sustainability. However, new regulations in the US and EU may force the company to divest gold from USDT’s reserves if it seeks formal approval in those markets.

Trump Media files for Crypto Blue Chip ETF

Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ:DJT) has filed to launch its third crypto-focused exchange-traded fund (ETF) under the Truth Social brand. Called the “Crypto Blue Chip ETF,’ the fund will aim to allocate 70 percent to Bitcoin, 15 percent to Ether and the remainder to Solana, Cronos and XRP.

This marks the latest move by the Trump-affiliated media company to expand its crypto investment footprint following two prior filings focused more narrowly on Bitcoin and Ether.

The ETF is set to trade on NYSE Arca, and is being developed in partnership with Crypto.com.

The company had earlier disclosed plans to raise US$2.5 billion to directly acquire Bitcoin. While Trump Media shares rose nearly 3 percent on the day of the announcement, it remains down over 40 percent year-to-date.

Sequans soars 43 percent on Bitcoin treasury strategy

Chipmaker Sequans Communications (NYSE:SQNS) saw its share price jump 43 percent after announcing a major pivot to a Bitcoin-based treasury reserve strategy. The firm raised US$384 million through equity and debt instruments to begin acquiring Bitcoin as a long-term corporate asset, emphasizing Bitcoin’s scarcity and independence from central banks as reasons behind the move and its potential to strengthen the company’s financial footing.

More than 40 institutional investors backed the fundraising, including convertible debentures and warrants that could bring in another US$57 million. The company plans to allocate future cash flows toward Bitcoin purchases.