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July 21, 2025

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The Best Five Sectors, #28

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Sector Rotation Stalls, Tech Remains King

Despite a slight rise in the S&P 500 over the past week, the sector rotation landscape is presenting an intriguing picture. For the first time in recent memory, we’re seeing absolutely no changes in the composition of the sector ranking — not just in the top five, but across the board. Will this stability kick off a return to a period of more significant trends in relative strength and a return to outperformance for the portfolio?

  1. (1) Technology – (XLK)
  2. (2) Industrials – (XLI)
  3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
  4. (4) Financials – (XLF)
  5. (5) Materials – (XLB)
  6. (6) Utilities – (XLU)
  7. (7) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
  8. (8) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
  9. (9) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
  10. (10) Energy – (XLE)
  11. (11) Healthcare – (XLV)

Technology

The tech sector continues to flex its muscles, moving up on the price ratio scale while maintaining a stable momentum around 103. This sustained strength is a clear indication that tech remains the sector to beat in the current market environment.

On the daily RRG, we’re seeing a nice rotation backup for tech while inside the weakening quadrant, a sign of strength that confirms the move on the weekly RRG. The raw RS line for tech is climbing almost straight up, reflecting very strong RRG lines. There might be a slight loss of momentum, but make no mistake, tech is still the strongest player in the game.

Industrials

Industrials is currently rotating out of the leading quadrant and sits on the verge of moving into weakening. However, it’s crucial to note that it still holds the second-highest rank based on the RS ratio. This positioning suggests that the odds for a rotation back up towards the leading quadrant are still in play.

The daily RRG shows industrials confirming its strength with a move further into the leading quadrant, moving up on the RS ratio scale while keeping stable momentum.

After breaking out of overhead resistance, the price chart continues higher, and a new higher low is visible on the relative strength line. This keeps the RS ratio line at elevated levels, though the RS momentum line is still moving lower just above 100. If this RS line can maintain a series of higher highs or higher lows, I expect the RS momentum line to bottom out soon and follow the RS ratio higher.

Communication Services

The communication services sector is positioned inside the weakening quadrant on the weekly RRG but has hooked back to the left and is now even lower on the RS ratio scale. It’s moving towards the lagging corner, which is a concerning trend for its top 5 position.

On the daily RRG, communication services have moved into the lagging quadrant. It has started to slow down on the negative momentum, but we need a rotation back up on this daily RRG into the improving quadrant and back to leading to have that weekly tail curl back up to its leading quadrant as well.

The price chart shows the sector holding up after breaking higher, with a pullback now finding support at the level of old resistance, respecting the rule that old resistance is expected to work as support going forward. The problem child here is the raw RS line, which has fallen below its rising support line. This is taking its toll on the RRG lines, with both RS ratio and RS momentum rolling over and starting to move down.

Financials

Financials are inside the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG, moving at a negative heading. This means that a significant amount of strength is needed from the daily tail to keep this sector within the top five.

On the price chart, financials are playing around with overhead resistance around 52, with a small consolidation area and a pennant-like formation suggesting more upside potential on the price chart.

However, this is not confirmed on the relative strength chart, where the RS line has broken its rising trend and is moving lower.

Materials

Materials are also inside the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG and traveling a negative heading, like financials. Here, also, strength is needed from the daily teams to keep the sector inside the top five.

Materials are holding up on the price chart after a break that could be described as a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. The relative strength line remains contained within the boundaries of its falling channel, but hugging the falling resistance line.

We need a break higher to turn that trend around. Only an upward breakout of that relative downtrend will turn the RRG lines around and provide a lifeline for materials to maintain its position inside the top five.

Portfolio Performance

The portfolio continues to lag the S&P 500, currently sitting around 8% behind. It seems to be stabilizing for now, but it’s not exactly what we want, of course. A drawdown of around 8-10% is not unprecedented, based on historical backtests; however, it’s somewhat disappointing that it occurs right when we begin operating in a semi-live environment.

That said, the fact that we’re now stable with no changes after a period of significant volatility over recent months could be a sign that we’re ready to enter a new period with stable relative trends that can bring the portfolio back to outperformance.

#StayAlert and have a great week. –Julius

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US Slaps 93.5 Percent Tariff on Chinese Graphite

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The US government has imposed a 93.5 percent anti-dumping tariff on battery-grade graphite imports from China, targeting what officials have described as unfairly low-priced shipments.

They claim domestic producers have been undercut, and have cited concerns over critical minerals dependence.

The US Department of Commerce announced the duty on Thursday (July 17) after an investigation prompted by from US manufacturers, who argued that Chinese producers were flooding the market with underpriced graphite.

The new duty, when combined with existing countervailing tariffs, raises the total effective rate to around 160 percent, according to the American Active Anode Material Producers (AAAMP), the coalition that filed the complaint.

The move affects roughly US$347 million worth of Chinese graphite imports, according to commerce department estimates, and comes as US policymakers scramble to secure critical mineral supply chains.

“Commerce’s determination proves that China is selling [active anode material] at less than fair value into the domestic market,” Erik Olson, a spokesperson for AAAMP, said in a Thursday press release.

The department said final rulings on both anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations will be announced by December 5.

A separate ruling in May placed a 6.55 percent preliminary countervailing duty on most Chinese producers, but singled out Huzhou Kaijin New Energy Technology and Shanghai Shaosheng for exceptionally high rates — 712.03 percent and 721.03 percent, respectively.

Graphite’s importance draws new scrutiny

While graphite rarely draws headlines like lithium or cobalt, it comprises up to 50 kilograms of every electric vehicle (EV) battery, forming the anode — a component as essential as the more widely discussed cathode.

China accounts for roughly 95 percent of global anode production, according to data from SNE Research.

Imports from China represented two-thirds of the 180,000 metric tons (MT) of graphite products shipped to the US in 2023, BloombergNEF data shows. Industry analysts say the new duties could significantly reshape market economics — especially for foreign battery suppliers that serve US automakers.

Supporters of the decision, including domestic producers and some lawmakers, argue the tariffs are a long-overdue corrective measure to level the playing field and stimulate US production.

“The decision today underscores the strategic importance of building a domestic supply chain for critical minerals, including synthetic graphite, in North America,” said Michael O’Kronley. “It affirms our business strategy as well as the diversification strategy of our customers to source critical battery materials and components locally.’

O’Kronley is CEO of Novonix (ASX:NVX,NASDAQ:NVNXF), which is building one of the largest synthetic graphite facilities in North America with support from a US$750 million US Department of Energy loan.

Westwater Resources (NYSEAMERICAN:WWR), which is constructing a graphite plant in Alabama, said the ruling provides the policy clarity and market signals needed to accelerate domestic graphite production.

“These two rulings by the DOC are distinct from legislative-driven global trade tariffs,” said Chief Commercial Officer Jon Jacobs in a statement of support. “They reflect long-term support for US-based graphite production.”

The company expects to produce 12,500 MT of graphite in 2026 and ramp up to 50,000 MT annually by 2028.

Despite efforts to boost local production, US automakers and battery makers warn that domestic graphite supply remains years away from meeting commercial demand — either in scale or purity.

In filings with the commerce department, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) cautioned that US producers have yet to demonstrate the technical ability to deliver the quality needed for EV batteries. Panasonic (OTC Pink:PCRFF,TSE:6752) echoed similar concerns, and both companies opposed the tariff earlier this year.

This leaves companies with a difficult choice: pay sharply higher prices for Chinese imports or risk shortages from an unproven local market.

Trade frictions add to supply chain strain

The timing complicates matters further. Just days before the US tariff announcement, China finalized new export controls on key battery technologies, including those used in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells — an area where China leads globally. The combination of trade restrictions on both sides is stoking fears of a wider resource standoff.

For US automakers, the downstream pressure is immediate. The tariff could wipe out up to 20 percent of the value of production tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, while added import costs may ripple through the supply chain.

Higher battery costs could also push EV sticker prices further upward, straining affordability and slowing adoption.

But experts caution that breaking China’s dominance in graphite will not be quick or easy. According to the International Energy Agency, developing alternative supply chains for battery materials could take years, if not decades — especially given the high purity and consistency required in EV-grade materials.

Still, supporters argue the short-term pain is worth the strategic payoff. “It’s a very strong signal that they are intent on fostering an ex-China supply chain,” Ben Lyons of Jarden told the Financial Times.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Shanghai Platinum Week Showcases China’s Dominance in Global PGMs Demand

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China is solidifying its position as the primary engine for global platinum demand

Record participation in Shanghai Platinum Week underscores the country’s expanding influence in a market facing a deepening supply deficit. The event, which attracted over 590 delegates from 30 countries, took place at a critical moment — just as the platinum market is tightening and a supply shortfall is deepening through 2029.

The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) notes that China now accounts for 64 percent of global demand for platinum bars and coins — up from 11 percent in 2019 — driven largely by investors seeking alternatives to gold.

“Platinum demand in China is continuing to expand, as the growth in physical platinum investment we are currently witnessing demonstrates,” said WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond, who also warned of persistent market tightness to 2029.

Also during the event, Valterra Platinum (JSE:VAL) CEO Craig Miller delivered his first public address in Asia since the company’s high-profile demerger from Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF) in May.

Miller confirmed Shanghai as one of Valterra’s three new international marketing hubs, emphasizing the company’s intent to shape demand within China’s growing platinum-group metals (PGMs) ecosystem.

“Attending Shanghai Platinum Week has highlighted its value for connecting with the PGM market in China,” he said. “Shaping demand for PGMs through market development remains an integral part of our strategy.”

Although new tariffs are expected to dent platinum demand by an estimated 112,000 ounces in 2025, that 1.4 percent decline is being far outweighed by a boom in investment and jewelry consumption.

The Chinese jewelry sector, too, is undergoing a transformation. Wholesalers are commissioning stock that mimics popular gold designs, making platinum jewelry more accessible and appealing to retailers and consumers alike.

If this trend continues, the WPIC forecasts a sharp rise in jewelry-related platinum usage from 2026 onward.

Platinum market fundamentals also remain tight, with supply expected to lag behind growing demand through at least 2029. Several Chinese refiners have recently secured “good delivery” accreditation from the London Platinum and Palladium Market, bolstering investor confidence and strengthening the local trading ecosystem.

Beyond investment and jewelry, regulatory and industrial shifts are setting the stage for long-term structural demand. China’s upcoming China VII/7 vehicle emissions standards, due to take effect in 2026, are expected to significantly increase PGMs loadings per vehicle due to more stringent cold start and real-world emissions testing.

Meanwhile, a global phaseout of mercury-based catalysts in polyvinyl chloride manufacturing is likely to drive adoption of platinum-based alternatives by 2030. In the hydrogen economy — a sector widely seen as platinum’s next frontier — the outlook remains bullish. Installed global electrolysis capacity is forecast to reach 100 gigawatts by 2030, with platinum-intensive proton exchange membrane (PEM) technology expected to dominate nearly half the market.

“This year we were delighted to welcome more overseas interest than ever before,” said Raymond. “Platinum investment is a natural mechanism for attracting metal into any geography, providing a pool of liquidity to supply future demand — particularly vital for countries like China, which rely on imports and recycling for supply.”

The week also celebrated Shanghai Platinum Week’s fifth anniversary with the unveiling of a commemorative 999.5 platinum medal designed by master engraver Luo Yonghui, limited to just 200 pieces.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Crypto Market Update: GENIUS Act Becomes First Federal Stablecoin Law in the US

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Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Friday (July 18) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$117,488, down by 1.3 percent in the last 24 hours. The day’s range for the cryptocurrency brought a low of US$117.409 and a high of US$119,529.

Bitcoin price performance, July 18, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

After hitting new highs this week, supported by optimism around US crypto legislation and continued institutional inflows, Bitcoin is consolidating. The crypto market is currently seeing a capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins, with Ethereum’s token, ETH, exhibiting an exceptionally strong run.

Ethereum (ETH) was priced at US$3,555.99, up by 3.9 percent over the past 24 hours. Its lowest valuation on Friday was US$3,541.70, and its highest was US$3,657.81.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) was priced at US$117.28, up by 1.6 percent over 24 hours. Its lowest valuation on Friday was US$176.32, and its highest was US$181.52.
  • XRP was trading for US$3.44, up 3.1 percent in the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency’s lowest valuation was US$3.36, and its highest was US$3.52.
  • Sui (SUI) is trading at US$3.80, down by four percent over the past 24 hours and its lowest valuation of the day. Its highest was US$4.01.
  • Cardano (ADA) was trading at US$0.8176, up by 1.9 percent over 24 hours. Its lowest violation was US$0.8152 while its highest was US$0.8591.

Today’s crypto news to know

GENIUS Act becomes law

US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law on Friday, establishing the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins in the US. This marks a significant development for digital assets.

The act will take effect 18 months after the date of enactment, or 120 days after the primary federal payment stablecoin regulators issue any final implementing regulations.

In a statement, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins congratulated the House on the accomplishment, which was preceded by a tumultuous period on Tuesday (July 15) that saw a procedural vote fail.

This was followed by a successful bipartisan vote on Wednesday (July 16) to advance the bill, culminating in its overwhelming passage on Thursday (July 17). Atkins added that he will look forward to watching the market leverage the regulatory framework provided by the GENIUS Act” over the coming months and years.

Stablecoins are used to facilitate trading, payments, and transfers within the crypto ecosystem without the volatility of traditional cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent recently suggested that the law could help grow the stablecoin market to US$3.7 trillion by 2030.

Two other bills also passed the House during the so-called “Crypto Week”: one defining which crypto assets are securities or commodities, and another barring the Federal Reserve from launching a US central bank digital currency.

These bills will now proceed to the Senate, but the Genius Act’s passage alone is already being hailed as a defining moment in the evolution of US crypto regulation.

Crypto market soars past US$4 trillion

The global market capitalization of the crypto sector has topped US$4 trillion for the first time, spurred by optimism following the US House’s passage of federal stablecoin legislation.

Investors are piling into altcoins and crypto-related equities as momentum builds behind Crypto Week in Washington. Ether led the charge with a 22 percent jump over five days, while Bitcoin soared to an all-time high of US$123,205 and continues to make up over half of the market’s total value.

The gains reflect confidence that a regulatory framework is finally taking shape in the world’s largest economy.

Analysts predict that the stablecoin sector alone could balloon to US$3.7 trillion by 2030, especially with state and federal guardrails in place. Exchange-traded fund inflows have been particularly strong this month, with US-listed Bitcoin and Ether funds attracting a combined US$8.4 billion in July.

SharpLink to raise US$6 billion for ETH acquisition

Following a 16,370 ETH acquisition on Sunday (July 13), a prospectus supplement filed with the SEC by online performance marketing company SharpLink on Thursday revealed the company increased the amount of common stock it can sell by an extra US$5 billion. Added to the US$1 billion in its initial May 30 filing, this brings the total offering to US$6 billion. SharpLink said it would use the funds to acquire more ETH.

Executive order will reportedly allow crypto in 401(k)s

Trump is reportedly expected to sign an executive order allowing American 401(k) retirement plans to include alternative assets like cryptocurrencies, as well as gold and private equity.

This development was reported by the Financial Times on Thursday, citing three individuals briefed on the plans, who added that the order would direct regulatory agencies to investigate the remaining hurdles preventing alternative investments in professionally managed funds.

In response, SEC Chair Paul Atkins expressed openness to the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in 401(k) retirement plans during an appearance on Bloomberg Talks, but emphasized the critical need for investor education.

Atkins has also indicated that the SEC is considering an innovation exemption within its regulatory framework. This exemption would aim to facilitate new trading methods and offer targeted relief to foster the growth of a tokenized securities ecosystem.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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