US President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities puts the Middle East in a volatile position, with all eyes now on Tehran’s next move.

Speaking in Istanbul, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday his country has “a variety of options” when deciding how to respond to the US attacks.

From striking US bases in the region, to possibly closing a key waterway to global shipping, Iran is likely mulling its next moves. All carry inherent risks for the Islamic Republic, Israel and the United States.

Here’s what to know:

Iran could hit US military interests in the region

Direct US involvement in the conflict could see Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) activate what remains of its proxies across Iraq, Yemen and Syria, groups which have previously launched attacks on American assets in the region.

While Iran’s strongest ally in the region was once Lebanon’s Hezbollah, that group has been significantly weakened by Israeli attacks.

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) says the US maintains a presence at 19 sites in total across the region, with eight of those considered by analysts to have a permanent US presence. As of June 13, the CFR estimated some 40,000 US troops were in the Middle East.

In Iraq, for example, there were 2,500 US troops as of late last year. An Iranian attack on these forces is not inconceivable. In 2020, an Iranian missile attack on a US garrison left more than 100 soldiers with traumatic brain injuries.

A resurgence of attacks from Yemen against US assets is already on the table. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels previously vowed to attack American ships in the Red Sea should the US join Israel’s conflict with Iran. A prominent Houthi official said in a social media post early Sunday that “Trump must bear the consequences” of the US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

It is unclear if this marks the end of a US-Houthi ceasefire struck in May, in which Washington said it would halt its military campaign against the Houthis in exchange for the group stopping its attacks on US interests in the region.

Knowing that it can’t outright win a conflict against Israel and the US, experts have said that Tehran could seek to engage in a war of attrition, where it tries to exhaust its adversary’s will or capacity to fight in a drawn-out and damaging conflict, which Trump at the outset of his presidency said he wanted to avoid.

Iran could disrupt global oil trade

Iran also has the power to influence the “entire commercial shipping in the Gulf,” Ravid said, should it decide to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route.

There have so far been no material disruptions to the global flow of oil. But if oil exports are disrupted, or if Iran tries to block the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market could face an existential crisis.

The strait links the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is a key channel for oil and liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East to the global market. About 20 million barrels of oil flow through the strait each day, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

A prominent adviser to Iran’s supreme leader has already called for missile strikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Following America’s attack on the Fordow nuclear installation, it is now our turn,” warned Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor-in-chief of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, a well-known conservative voice who has previously identified himself as a Khamenei “representative.”

Iran could race to build a bomb

Some experts say that Iran is very likely to race for a nuclear bomb now, even if the current regime collapses and new leaders come in place.

“Trump just guaranteed that Iran will be a nuclear weapons state in the next 5 to 10 years,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, said on X. “Particularly if the regime changes.”

Parsi has said that even if the regime collapses and new military elements assume power, they are likely to be much more hawkish than the current regime and race toward a nuclear weapon as their only deterrent.

Experts have previously said that Iran likely moved its stocks of enriched uranium from its key nuclear facilities amid Israeli strikes.. Nuclear power plants that generate electricity for civil purposes use uranium that is enriched to between 3.5% and 5%. When enriched to higher levels, uranium can be used to make a bomb Israel and the US accuse Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons; Tehran insists its program is peaceful.

Iran is also likely to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or the NPT, under which it has pledged not to develop a bomb.

“Iran’s response is likely not just limited to military retaliation. NPT withdrawal is quite likely,” Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, said on X.

Iran could just keep hitting Israel for now

Iran’s first response to the US’ attack on its nuclear sites was to attack Israel, not US bases.

Iranian missiles hit a group of buildings in Tel Aviv, where 86 people were admitted to hospital with injuries overnight and on Sunday morning, according to Israel’s ministry of health.

Knowing it may not be able to sustain a full-on confrontation with the US, and hoping that Trump will scale back on his involvement following Sunday’s strike, Iran may merely seek to perpetuate the status quo, fighting only Israel.

Trump at the time wanted to “send a big message, get the headlines, show US resolve, but then avoid a wider war,” Shabani said.

While Iran may feel it has to retaliate to save face, it may be a bloodless response, similar to what happened in 2020, when it launched a barrage of missiles at US bases in Iraq, which resulted in traumatic brain injuries to personnel but no deaths.

Iran could resort to cyberattacks or terrorism

Two military analysts have said Iran could resort to “asymmetric” measures – such as terrorism or cyberattacks – to retaliate against the US because Israeli attacks have reduced Iran’s military capabilities.

“I think (the IRGC is) going to be a little bit careful, and I suspect that’s going to take us to all of the asymmetric things they can do: cyber, terrorism. I think that they’re probably going to be looking for things where the US cannot just put up the traditional defenses,” he added.

But, “albeit wounded,” the IRGC still has “some tremendous capacity,” he said. “It has capabilities that are already within the region and then outside the region. We are vulnerable… around the world, where the IRGC has either influence or can make things happen asymmetrically.”

Iran could resume nuclear talks

Iran has refused to return to the negotiating table while under Israeli attacks.

On Sunday, Araghchi said he does not know how “much room is left for diplomacy” after the US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

“They crossed a very big red line by attacking nuclear facilities. … We have to respond based on our legitimate right for self-defense,” Araghchi said.

Parsi said that by doing so, “the Iranians have cornered themselves.”

“Their aim is to force Trump to stop Netanyahu’s war, and by that show his ability and willingness to use American leverage against Netanyahu,” Parsi wrote. “But the flip side is that Tehran has given Israel a veto on US-Iran diplomacy – by simply continuing the war, Israel is enabled to block talks between the US and Iran.”

Iranian and European officials met Friday in Geneva for talks, which an Iranian source said started out tense but became “much more positive.”

Speaking Sunday, Araghchi said the US had decided to “blow up” diplomacy.

“Last week, we were in negotiations with the US when Israel decided to blow up that diplomacy. This week, we held talks with the E3 (group of European ministers)/EU when the US decided to blow up that diplomacy,” Araghchi said on X.

“The more likely situation is that the talks are over for now.”

Large crowds gathered at the Enqelab Square in central Tehran on Sunday evening, protesting the strikes. Footage published by the state-affiliated Fars News Agency showed people waving Iranian flags and punching the air, carrying signs that read: “Down with the USA, down with Israel.”

Hamid Rasaee, a politician, said even people critical of the regime were protesting.

Trump ordered attacks on three of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities early Sunday morning – a move that has placed the US in the center of the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Iranians had faced the possibility of US intervention ever since Israel launched its strikes on nuclear and military targets last week – but many believed any action was days away.

That’s in part because Trump said Thursday he would decide whether to strike Iran within two weeks, seemingly opening a window for negotiations. That all changed early Sunday, when American bombers dropped more than a dozen massive “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities, and Tomahawk missiles launched from the sea struck Isfahan.

“We do not have nuclear weapons, so why does he strike us?” he added, alluding to the Iranian regime’s insistence the country’s nuclear program is peaceful. Trump has claimed Iran was weeks away from acquiring a nuclear weapon, dismissing assessments from his own intelligence community that Iran was still years away from a weapon.

Qom residents slept through the attacks

While Trump has claimed the three sites struck by the US were “totally obliterated,” his defense secretary has said the full impact is still being assessed. And unlike the strikes by Israel in recent days, some of which targeted densely populated areas, the US attacks were concentrated in locations off-limits to most civilians.

Residents of Qom, a city some 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the Fordow nuclear site, woke to the sound of emergency vehicles’ sirens and the news that the secretive complex had been bombed a few hours earlier.

Five people living in Qom said they were surprised to learn what had happened when they got up, having heard nothing overnight.

Qom does not have an aerial attack warning system, so residents would have had no warning before the strikes.

Qom is considered a holy city, home to Iran’s largest and most famous Shia seminary. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei studied at the Qom Seminary, as did several of Iran’s former presidents.

Similarly, people living in a village some 35 kilometers (22 miles) from the Natanz facility said they heard nothing overnight.

In Tehran, far from the targeted nuclear sites, many were calling for Iran to respond with force. Fars released a compilation of short interviews with people on the streets of the capital Sunday.

Each of the eight people featured urged a retaliation – with most saying Iran should strike US bases in the region and close down the Strait of Hormuz on Iran’s southern shore, through which a third of global seaborne oil trade passes.

In Iran, signs of dissent tend to be quickly quashed, making it dangerous for people to express disagreement with the regime.

But Mohsen Milani, an Iranian scholar who has lived in the US for decades, said the US attack on Iran could spark more genuine support for the regime.

“It could ignite a new wave of nationalism, damage the future of U.S.-Iran relations more than the 1953 coup, accelerate Tehran’s pivot to Russia and China, and fundamentally reshape Iran’s defense, deterrence, and nuclear posture,” he said in a post on X.

Some of this sentiment was already on show in Tehran on Sunday.

“I will stay here and I will sacrifice my life and my blood for my country,” she said.

Everywhere around her, people were protesting the US, many holding anti-Trump signs and posters. Some of the posters ended up on the ground, where people stamped on them.

“We were living our normal lives and they attacked us. If someone strikes the United States, would they not answer? Of course they would,” she said.

Another person living in Tehran said they believed the regime was greatly weakened by the US strikes – because its opponents would now be able to call its bluff.

“The claims that the Iranian regime has always made – that it will attack all American bases and close the Strait of Hormuz – they made all these claims and the whole world saw that (the US) came and easily hit the Fordow and Natanz sites … but Iran was completely silent and no fighter planes took off and (it) used no defenses or missiles,” the person said, adding that if there is no response in the coming days, the regime’s supporters could abandon it.

“No sane person will stand by someone who is in a weak position, not even their own supporters,” they said.

A British-flagged luxury superyacht that sank off Sicily last year, killing UK tech magnate Mike Lynch and six others, completed its final trip to the Sicilian port of Termini Imerese Sunday, a day after recovery crews finalized the complex operation to lift it out of the water.

The white top and blue hull of the 56-meter (184-foot) Bayesian, covered with algae and mud, was kept elevated by the yellow floating crane barge off the port of Porticello, before being transferred to Termini Imerese, where it docked in the early afternoon.

On Monday, the delicate recovery operation will be concluded, as the vessel will be transported to shore and settled in a specially built steel cradle.

Then it will be made available for investigators for further examinations to help determine the cause of the sinking.

The Bayesian sank Aug. 19 off Porticello, near Palermo, during a violent storm as Lynch was treating friends to a cruise to celebrate his acquittal two months earlier in the US on fraud charges. Lynch, his daughter and five others died. Fifteen people survived, including the captain and all crew members except the chef.

Italian authorities are conducting a full criminal investigation.

The vessel was slowly raised from the seabed 50 meters (165 feet) deep over three days to allow the steel lifting straps, slings and harnesses to be secured under the keel.

The Bayesian is missing its 72-meter (236-foot) mast, which was cut off and left on the seabed for future removal. The mast had to be detached to allow the hull to be brought to a nearly upright position that would allow the craft to be raised.

British investigators said in an interim report issued last month that the yacht was knocked over by “extreme wind” and couldn’t recover.

The report said the crew of the Bayesian had chosen the site where it sank as shelter from forecast thunderstorms. Wind speeds exceeded 70 knots (81 mph) at the time of the sinking and “violently” knocked the vessel over to a 90-degree angle in under 15 seconds.

Karen and Omri Mamon, dual American-Israeli citizens, traveled to Israel last month to attend the wedding of Omri’s sister. They didn’t know they would end up spending their holiday moving from one house to another, searching for shelter.

A week after the wedding, Israel launched its surprise attack on Iran, and missiles began flying over the skies, forcing both airspaces to shut down. Most flights out of Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport were canceled, leaving many stranded and unable to get home.

Mamon said they’ve lived in Israel before and experienced having to shelter, “but this time is different.”

“The bombs are bigger, the noises are extremely high … you hear bombs everywhere,” he added.

Dozens of Americans who have been trying to leave Israel gathered at a hotel in central Israel on Saturday, where US embassy consular staff began processing their departures.

Earlier in the week, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee announced on social media that the embassy was arranging evacuation flights and ships for American citizens who wished to leave. Huckabee did not say when the evacuation efforts would begin.

According to US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce, more than 25,000 people have sought information from the State Department about the “situation in Israel, the West Bank and Iran.” There are about 700,000 Americans living in Israel, according to Huckabee.

The Mamons were on the list to go, but others, like Elana Hayman, are still waiting to be processed.

“It was so intense that I thought it hit our building. It shook us to the core. … I actually hear the sound every night. When I think about it, I can hear it over and over again,” she said.

Her 18-year-old daughter Noa, who has anxiety, said it was a terrifying experience.

“It was really bad. I was really scared. I just wanted to find any way to leave. … It’s a scary time to be here right now,” she said.

As the evacuation process progresses slowly, Hayman — like many others — are still trying to find a way out of Israel. The US embassy said in a security alert last week that the land crossings from Israel to Jordan and Egypt are options but acknowledged that each comes with its own risks. Jordanian airspace has closed sporadically since the conflict began, and the US cannot offer emergency services to American citizens traveling through the Sinai Peninsula to catch international flights out of Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.

The Mamons suspect they were processed so quickly because their son has autism.

“The main thing was to bring him back home; he was our priority. … He had a really rough time here with the sirens, noises, the shelters, and lots of people shouting,” Karen Mamon said.

Despite feeling relieved to have been processed, Omri Mamon still says “anything could happen.”

“We’re not celebrating yet,” he said.

Belarus has freed Sergey Tikhanovsky, a key dissident figure and the husband of exiled opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, following a rare visit by a senior US official, Tikhanovskaya’s team announced on Saturday.

Tikhanovsky, a popular blogger and activist who was jailed in 2020, arrived in Vilnius, Lithuania, alongside 13 other political prisoners, his wife’s team said. The release came just hours after Belarusian authorities announced that authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko met with US President Donald Trump’s envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, in Minsk.

A video published on his wife’s official Telegram account showed Tikhanovsky disembarking a white minibus, with a shaved head and broad smile. He pulled Tikhanovskaya into a long embrace as their supporters applauded.

“My husband is free. It’s difficult to describe the joy in my heart,” Tikhanovskaya told reporters. But she added her team’s work is “not finished” while over 1,100 political prisoners remain behind bars in Belarus.

Tikhanovsky was jailed after announcing plans to challenge Lukashenko in the 2020 election. Following his arrest, his wife ran in his stead, rallying large crowds across the country. Official results of the election handed Lukashenko his sixth term in office but were denounced by the opposition and the West as a sham.

As unprecedented protests broke out in the aftermath of the vote, Tikhanovskaya left the country under pressure from the authorities. Her husband was later sentenced to 19 1/2 years in prison on charges of organizing mass riots.

Other prominent dissidents remain in Belarusian jails, among them Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Bialiatski, a human rights advocate serving a 10-year prison sentence on charges widely denounced as politically motivated. Also behind bars is Viktor Babaryka, a former banker who was widely seen in 2020 as Lukashenko’s main electoral rival, and Maria Kolesnikova, a charismatic leader of that year’s mass protests.

Released alongside Tikhanovsky was longtime Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty correspondent Ihar Karnei, the US government-funded broadcaster confirmed. Karnei, who had also worked with prominent Belarusian and Russian newspapers, had been serving a three-year service on extremism charges he rejected as a sham.

RFE/RL’s Belarusian service had been designated extremist in the country, a common label handed to anyone who criticizes Lukashenko’s government. As a result, working for it or spreading its content has become a criminal offense.

“We are deeply grateful to President Trump for securing the release of this brave journalist, who suffered at the hands of the Belarusian authorities,” the broadcaster’s CEO Stephen Capus said Saturday in a press release.

Karnei was detained several times while covering the 2020 protests. Unlike many of his colleagues, he chose to stay in Belarus despite the ensuing repression. He was arrested again in July 2023, as police raided his apartment seizing phones and computers.

Belarus also freed an Estonian national who had set up an NGO to raise funds for Belarusian refugees. According to the Estonian Foreign Ministry, Allan Roio was detained last January, and sentenced to 6 1/2 years in prison on charges of establishing an extremist organization.

The streets were fairly quiet in the Iranian capital, usually a bustling metropolis of over 9 million people. Over the past few days, traffic has increased as more Iranians return to the city after fleeing Israel’s bombing during earlier days of the conflict.

Despite being the voice of a government exchanging blows with a nuclear power (and waiting on whether to expect fire from the United States), Mohajerani was relaxed. The first woman to serve as Iranian government spokesperson, she came into her role less than a year ago, appointed by President Masoud Pezeshkian last August.

She noted that Iran has endured numerous cycles of negotiations about its nuclear activities, yet none have resulted in a sustained long-term deal.

“These past years we’ve been through a painful experience twice,” Mohajerani said, pointing to US President Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA agreement in 2018.

No matter how eager Trump might be to bring Iran to the negotiating table, Mohajerani said Iran does not want to be left empty-handed again. And before talks begin, Israel’s bombing must stop, she said, emphasizing a point made by multiple Iranian officials in recent days.

“This time we were in the middle of negotiations again when this attack took place,” Mohajerani said. “Therefore, as our officials have already stated, as long as there are attacks, negotiations will be meaningless. When the attacks stop, we will think about it.”

Israel’s initial, wide-ranging operation on June 13 killed some of the most powerful commanders in the Iranian military and damaged Iranian uranium enrichment sites. Since then, daily strikes have damaged its nuclear power plants, set its largest natural gas field aflame and obliterated the newsroom of one of the country’s state-run media channels.

Still, Mohajerani insists that Iran is ready for whatever the Israelis throw at them next.

“Both the government and the nation of Iran are totally robust in defense,” she said. “Our military force is completely ready to prevent such attacks from happening again, and in case the need arises to practice legitimate defense.”

“I’ve had five operations,” she said from her hospital bed. “In my abdomen area, my kidney, my liver.”

Iran’s missile-and-UAV-driven response, meanwhile, has killed 24 in Israel, wounding over 1,200 others, according to figures from the Israeli government. Iranian missiles have struck deep within Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities, with one missile hitting a hospital.

Nuclear energy ‘means life to us’

At the heart of the conflict is the future of Iran’s nuclear program.

“Nuclear energy does not mean war to us,” Mohajerani said. “It means life to us. Therefore, since the subject of enrichment and the subject of life are the same path to us, not leading to war, we believe enrichment is our right.”

Nonetheless, Israeli officials have cast their bombing campaign in existential terms, going so far as to say that Iran’s nuclear program poses a threat to the entire planet.

“We act to prevent a huge threat—primarily to the existence of Israel, but also to the entire region, Europe, and the world order,” declared Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar at the site of an Iranian missile strike in Rishon Lezion.

It remains unclear whether Washington will join the fray. Trump has said he will decide whether to intervene within the next two weeks, but has already joined Israeli officials in publicly pondering the benefits of assassinating Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on June 17. “He is an easy target but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.”

Mohajerani was blunt when asked about the possibility that Israel or the US might take direct aim at her country’s head of state.

“This shows that Israel does not understand the unity of the Iranian people,” Mohajerani said. “Israel better not do something for which it can’t pay the damage. The Iranian people are backing their leader.”

“We should not forget that for all of us Iranians today, Iran is a united concept, which we will certainly defend.”

A draft-dodging scandal in Taiwan allegedly involving a number of actors, influencers, and musicians has cast an unflattering spotlight on the conscript and reservist forces which could one day stand between the island and a possible invasion by China.

Taiwan’s military service regime, which runs alongside its conventional military, faces accusations of failing to prepare conscripts for an actual war – an alarming situation against a drumbeat of threats from its giant neighbor.

On Monday, authorities indicted 28 defendants. Prosecutors allege that, between 2016 and early this year, a four-person ring helped 24 healthy men dodge the draft by faking high blood pressure to gain a medical exemption, netting a total of 7.63 million Taiwanese dollars ($255,000).

At least 11 celebrities are now under investigation.

Among those indicted was the actor Darren Wang. The 34-year-old, launched to fame across the Chinese-speaking world a decade ago as a boyish heartthrob in teen romcom Our Times, was accused of paying 3.6 million Taiwanese dollars ($120,000) for a fake hypertension diagnosis.

Such organized efforts to evade conscription are largely seen as a sign of people’s apathy towards service, rather than their fear of military rough-and-tumble.

“Most of the time during the service is dedicated to miscellaneous tasks, and not actually combat-related.”

A mundane duty

Back in 1949, as the Nationalist government lost a bloody civil war against the insurgent Chinese Communist Party and fled to Taiwan, it introduced mandatory military service to the island, where eligible men would serve two years in the army or three years in the navy, air force or marines. The system, in one form or another, has been in place ever since – as have Beijing’s designs on the island, which the Communist Party claims as its own territory, to be taken by force if necessary.

But military service has long been seen as anything but heroic. Conscripts have described it as monotonous, disorganized and often irrelevant to modern warfare: a combination of indoor lectures, hours of waiting around, and outdated ceremonial drills.

US officials, not authorized to speak openly, quietly warn that Taiwan’s reserve forces remain the soft underbelly of its defense posture.

One official said millions of former conscripts exist “on paper,” but years of truncated service and minimal refresher training have left them “underprepared for modern warfare.”

While there are no official estimates for the number of illegal draft-dodgers, a tally by the Ministry of the Interior shows that, from 2021 to 2023, cases of suspected obstruction of military service have risen from 309 to 553.

“It is imperative to reform military service as quickly as possible,” said Wu Tzu-li, an associate research fellow at the INDSR. “After all, the fight ultimately comes down to the people operating the weapons and not the weaponry itself, so having solid education and training is crucial.”

Attempts at reform

Even Taiwan’s leaders have acknowledged the problem. Shortly after taking office in 2016, former President Tsai Ing-wen called for sweeping reform, as opposed to “papering over problems, wasting human resources, and operating inefficiently in so many different ways.”

In response to growing security threats from Beijing, which conducted at least three large-scale military exercises around Taiwan last year, and sent warplanes, naval vessels and coast guards close to the island on a near-daily basis – Taiwan’s government has extended training time for conscripts and introduced reforms such as more live-fire drills and an emphasis on modern tactics. As of January 2024, the minimum active-duty period was increased to one full year, up from just four months under the previous policy.

The changes’ effectiveness remains to be seen. Critics say that unless Taiwan revamps how – and what – soldiers are taught, young men will continue to view the draft as symbolic rather than strategic.

“The key is what kinds of training will be provided to the new conscripts,” said Chieh. “It’s important to not let them feel they’ve wasted one year.”

Another US official added that “Taiwan is making good progress in enhancing the realism of training for reservists, but still has work to do in updating their equipment and reforming the organization of reserve units.”

“Retraining and equipping existing reservists to operate asymmetric platforms like drones and anti-air missiles will have an outsized impact on Taiwan’s ability to deter conflict.”

It added that the new, extended one-year training period “enables conscripts to undergo systematic and comprehensive military training, including enlistment, stationing, specialization, base training, and joint exercises – equipping them with essential combat skills and a firm resolve to defend the nation.”

Korean contrast

In nearby South Korea – another place marked by long-running hostility with its nearest neighbor – military service is taken a lot more seriously, and counting down the days until major celebrities will park their careers to don military fatigues has become something of a national pastime.

Rather than damaging reputations, military service is often seen as a sign of integrity and patriotism in major stars – an impression that can enhance their careers after taking off the uniform.

Earlier this month, K-pop superstars RM and V, from the band BTS, became the latest high-profile conscripts discharged from national service. They each saluted upon their release from duty in Chuncheon city, after about 18 months of active service, to the cheers of about 200 gathered fans – some of whom traveled from Mexico, Turkey and Brazil.

The other five members of the massively popular group either have completed or will complete the mandatory service, and the band expects to reunite within the next 12 months.

Even soccer superstar Son Heung-min, who avoided conscription through an exemption after winning gold at the 2018 Asian Games with South Korea’s national team, has taken four weeks of basic military training.

For Taiwan to restore faith in conscription, military analysts say, it will need to reduce loopholes, improve instruction, and modernize training to reflect real threats – particularly as tensions with Beijing intensify. It will also, they say, need a cultural shift: one that values service not as empty symbolism, but as preparation for a possible fight.

But it depends whether the recent reforms take root.

“The fear,” said one former conscript, “is that the new system will look just like the old one – only longer.”