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May 2025

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Gold trended down this week, dropping to just over US$3,200 per ounce on the first day of May.

While the yellow metal remains historically high after a strong run this year, its price has pulled back from last week’s record-setting level of US$3,500, causing concern for some market participants.

However, many experts agree that this week’s retreat isn’t a reason to worry.

His technical analysis shows that the US$3,100 to US$3,140 area will be important to watch moving forward — in his view, that’s when bullish players should start re-entering the space, boosting the price.

Soloway also outlined gold’s future price potential, saying he sees a potential path to US$7,000. Check out the full interview for more of his thoughts on gold, as well as silver and the US economy.

Bullet briefing — Fed to meet next week, US-Ukraine deal signed

Market watchers eye Fed meeting

Eyes are shifting to the US Federal Reserve’s next meeting, set to run from May 6 to 7. It follows initial numbers showing that real GDP contracted by an annual rate of 0.3 percent in Q1.

That’s the first negative reading since 2022, and as the news weighed on the stock market, US President Donald Trump took to social media to suggest the data is an ‘overhang’ from Joe Biden’s term.

Trump has pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates sooner than later, but CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows the vast majority of market participants expect rates to stay flat.

Trump advisor Elon Musk also has his eye on the Fed. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday (April 30), he said the US$2.5 billion renovation of the central bank’s headquarters could become a point of inquiry for the Department of Government Efficiency, better known as DOGE.

Calling the cost an ‘eyebrow raiser,’ Musk questioned where the money is being spent. The price of the project was initially set at US$1.9 billion in 2021, but has increased since then.

‘Since at the end of the day, this is all taxpayer money, I think we certainly — we should definitely — look to see if indeed the Federal Reserve is spending $2.5 billion on their interior designer’ — Musk

US, Ukraine sign critical minerals deal

The US and Ukraine signed a much-anticipated minerals deal on Wednesday, ending months of often-tense negotiations between the two countries. If approved by parliament in Ukraine, the agreement will set up a reconstruction investment fund that will be split 50/50 between each party.

According to Ukrainian officials, the deal is more equitable than previous versions.

The fund will be financed only by new licenses for critical materials, oil and gas; aside from that, Ukraine will not have to pay back wartime aid provided by the US.

While Ukraine had pushed for security guarantees from the US, that component ultimately wasn’t put in place. However, the US may provide new assistance to Ukraine, such as air defense systems.

A total of 55 minerals are reportedly covered in the arrangement, but more can be added in the future if there is consensus between the US and Ukraine. Although the US will get preferential rights to mineral extraction, Ukraine will have the final say on what is mined and where, and will retain subsoil ownership.

The agreement comes on the back of an increasing global focus on critical minerals, many of which are key for new technology and important industries like defense.

It’s worth noting that while Ukraine is home to a wide variety of these commodities, more geological data will be needed to determine commercial viability — for example, there is no up-to-date information on the country’s reserves of rare earths, which are important to the US.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

A sea of people filled Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana beach on Saturday as pop superstar Lady Gaga played a colossal free concert in the Brazilian city, with more than two million fans said to have attended.

Guests started queuing from early Saturday morning to secure a good spot for the show, which is paid for by local authorities. Organizers said about 2.1 million revelers were estimated to have been in the crowd.

“I feel the city is more crowded this time, but I’m very excited”, said the film maker.

Many fans – which the star refers to as her “Little Monsters” – had dressed up in Gaga-themed costumes, referencing major hits like “Poker Face,” “Born This Way” and “Bad Romance.”

Lady Gaga’s trip to Brazil is part of a global tour to promote “Mayhem,” her new album. The genre-hopping singer and actor, 39, was in Mexico City last week, where she played two concerts.

The night before the Rio concert, the pop star surprised beachgoers on Copacabana by taking the stage for a rehearsal.

“I’ve missed you so much”, she said between applause, during her first performance in Brazil since 2012. “I know that this is not the first show here, I know this is just a rehearsal, it feels like it’s the real show,” she added before breaking into “Alejandro.”

“The truth is that the energy here in Copacabana is incredible,” Abril said. “Rio is incredible and it always lends itself to parties and magical moments.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A four-year-old girl and a man have been killed after a driver crashed an SUV into the entrance of Manila International Airport on Sunday, the Philippine Red Cross said.

The driver crashed the car through the outer railing and onto a walkway where people were standing outside the departure area at Ninoy Aquino International Airport’s Terminal 1 just before 9 a.m., the Philippine Red Cross said in a statement.

“The incident tragically resulted in the casualties of two individuals – a male adult and a 4-year-old girl,” it said.

The driver is in police custody and individuals are being treated for injuries, the airport’s operator said in a statement, though it did not specify how many people were hurt.

There is currently no indication from police that the crash was deliberate.

The Philippine Red Cross said it deployed 18 volunteers and five ambulances to respond to the crash, including a rescue vehicle for “potential extrication operations,” according to the statement.

Videos shared on social media by the news agency of the Philippine government showed chaos at the airport, and a black SUV crashed into the entryway of the terminal. People could be heard screaming and crying in the video, which appeared to show several people injured on the ground and baggage strewn about, as first responders attended to the scene.

“At this time, we are awaiting official confirmation on the cause of the incident and reports of injuries,” the statement from the airport’s operator said.

“We understand the concern this incident has caused, especially as images have circulated on social media,” said the statement.

“We urge the public not to speculate and to wait for verified updates, which will be issued as soon as they become available.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

President Donald Trump posted an artificial intelligence-generated image of himself dressed as pope as the mourning of Pope Francis continues and just days before the conclave to elect his successor is set to begin. Trump’s action drew rebukes from a group representing Catholic bishops in New York and among Italians.

The image, shared Friday night on Trump’s Truth Social site and later reposted by the White House on its official X account, raised eyebrows on social media and at the Vatican, which is still in the period of nine days of official mourning following Francis’ death on April 21. Catholic cardinals have been celebrating daily Masses in his memory and are due to open the conclave to elect his successor on Wednesday.

The death of a pope and election of another is a matter of utmost solemnity for Catholics, for whom the pope is Christ’s vicar on Earth. That is all the more true in Italy, where the papacy is held in high esteem even by nonreligious Italians.

The image featuring Trump in a white cassock and pointed miter, or bishop’s hat, was the topic of several questions during the Vatican’s daily conclave briefing Saturday. Italian and Spanish news reports lamented its poor taste and said it was offensive, given that the period of official mourning is still underway.

Left-leaning former Premier Matteo Renzi said the image was shameful. “This is an image that offends believers, insults institutions and shows that the leader of the right-wing world enjoys clowning around,” Renzi wrote on X. “Meanwhile, the US economy risks recession and the dollar loses value. The sovereignists are doing damage, everywhere.”

The Vatican spokesman, Matteo Bruni, declined to comment.

In the United States, the New York State Catholic Conference, which represents the bishops of the state in working with government, accused Trump of mockery.

“There is nothing clever or funny about this image, Mr. President,” they wrote. “We just buried our beloved Pope Francis and the cardinals are about to enter a solemn conclave to elect a new successor of St. Peter. Do not mock us.”

Italy’s left-leaning La Repubblica also featured the image on its homepage Saturday with a commentary accusing Trump of “pathological megalomania.”

Asked to respond to the criticism, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that, “President Trump flew to Italy to pay his respects for Pope Francis and attend his funeral, and he has been a staunch champion for Catholics and religious liberty.”

Jack Posobiec, a prominent far-right influencer and Trump ally who recently participated in a Catholic prayer event in March at Trump’s Florida resort, also defended the president.

“I’m Catholic. We’ve all been making jokes about the upcoming Pope selection all week. It’s called a sense of humor,” he wrote on X.

The episode comes after Trump joked last week about his interest in the vacancy. “I’d like to be pope. That would be my number one choice,” the thrice married president, who is not Catholic, told reporters.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, piled on.

“I was excited to hear that President Trump is open to the idea of being the next Pope. This would truly be a dark horse candidate, but I would ask the papal conclave and Catholic faithful to keep an open mind about this possibility!” Graham, R-S.C., wrote on X. “The first Pope-US President combination has many upsides. Watching for white smoke…. Trump MMXXVIII!”

Vice President JD Vance, who is Catholic and was one of the last foreign officials to meet with Francis before the pope died, also joked about Secretary of State Marco Rubio becoming pope, suggesting Rubio could add it to the long list of titles he holds, including national security adviser and acting archivist.

Beyond floating himself for the job, Trump also has put in a plug for Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the archbishop of New York.

“I have no preference. I must say, we have a cardinal that happens to be out a place called New York who’s very good. So we’ll see what happens,” he said.

Dolan, 75, is one of 10 US cardinals who will be voting in the conclave, but Trump’s pitch might have cost Dolan support.

The reason conclaves are held in secrecy, with cardinals sequestered for the duration, is to prevent outside secular powers from influencing their choice, as occurred in centuries past.

There is an old saying about campaigning for the job of pope or of being promoted excessively, especially by outsiders: If you “enter a conclave as pope, you leave as a cardinal.”

While Trump attended Francis’ funeral, he and Vance have clashed with US bishops in general and Francis in particular over the administration’s hard line stance on immigration and its efforts to deport migrants en masse. Right before he was hospitalized in February for pneumonia, Francis issued a strong rebuke of the administration’s mass deportation plans and Vance’s theological justification of it.

Over 12 years as pope, Francis tried to remake the U.S. Catholic hierarchy more in his image, elevating pastors who prioritized social justice and migration issues over culture warriors who were more favored by his more doctrinaire predecessors St. John Paul II and Benedict XVI. A new pope who is more conservative could reverse that effort.

Trump has nominated as his ambassador to the Holy See Brian Burch, whose Catholicvote.org has been aggressively covering the pre-conclave days at the Vatican. It was one of the main disseminators in English-speaking media of a report, flatly and officially denied by the Vatican, that Cardinal Pietro Parolin had had a health scare this past week that required medical attention.

Parolin was the secretary of state under Francis and is seen as a leading contender to be pope. He is also the main architect of the Vatican’s China policy and its controversial 2018 deal with Beijing over bishop nominations – a deal that the was sharply criticized by the first Trump administration.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Flights resumed at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv after a failed interception of a missile from Yemen on Sunday forced it to halt operations temporarily.

Israel’s military said the missile landed in the airport’s vicinity after “several attempts” at intercepting it failed, adding that “the results of the interception are under review.”

The Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen has repeatedly launched ballistic missiles at Israel, but this appears to be the first time one has landed near the country’s main international airport, a major breach of security at a tightly protected site.

“We will attack whoever attacks us sevenfold,” Israel Katz, the defense minister, said in a statement.

The attack prompted the airport to briefly suspend flights. Trains to and from the airport were also halted and police asked the public to refrain from arriving in the area.

The incident underscores the Houthis’ continued ability to strike distant targets despite a sustained US military campaign and may raise questions about Israel’s capacity to intercept such attacks.

Pictures from the scene showed debris from the impact of the missile on the grounds of the airport, littering the road toward the main terminal. A video shared on social media appeared to show the impact of the missile at the airport and a cloud of black smoke rising from the strike.

Sunday’s strike marks the third consecutive day of missile launches from Yemen toward Israel, according to the Israel Defense Forces.

The Houthis have not claimed responsibility for the latest missile, but a spokesman for the militant group has said previous launches targeted military facilities in Israel. Yahya Saree said over the weekend that the rebels fired “Palestine 2” ballistic missiles “in support of our brothers and sister in Gaza.”

Israel has carried out several strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, including the targeting of a power plant and maritime ports in January.

The US military has carried out far more extensive strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in recent weeks, aiming to the group, whose attacks on Red Sea shipping have significantly disrupted global trade.

The campaign is also aimed at stopping launches targeting Israel, as well as commercial and US Navy vessels operating in the Middle East. Early last month, the cost of US the effort had approached $1 billion in just three weeks, including the deployment of B-2 stealth bombers and the use of hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of high-end munitions.

But it has largely failed to disrupt the Houthis’ ability to launch ballistic missiles against Israel. The country’s vaunted missile defense system routinely intercepts the launches, but some have gotten through.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Australians delivered a surprise election result on Saturday; not because of who won but by the scale of the victory.

It marks a strong recovery for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his center-left Labor party, which had been slumping in the polls earlier this year, and follows a similar swing away from conservatives in Canada in the early months of the second US presidency of Donald Trump.

As the final seats are allocated and the center-right Liberal Party surveys the damage – including the loss of its leader, Peter Dutton, from parliament – here are five takeaways.

‘Trump effect’ boosts another left-leaning government

Albanese’s defeat of Dutton mirrors the outcome of Canada’s federal election last week, where the once-struggling left-leaning Liberal Party soared to victory thanks to a Trump-inspired popularity boost.

In a remarkable political rebound, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals bested Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives after Trump’s tariffs and threats to annex its neighbor changed the fortunes of the governing party, which had been trailing in the polls for years.

While Australia has not faced the same affront to its sovereignty as Canada, the similar election results show Trump’s influence in the domestic politics of longtime US allies.

Dutton was dubbed a ‘Temu Trump’ by his critics – a reference to the budget Chinese online marketplace – in a characterization that may have contributed to his downfall in Australia, where trust in the US has been eroded, according to recent surveys.

Despite claiming that he was his “own person,” Dutton was accused of stoking culture wars and took aim at migrants and the news media in rhetoric that resembled Trump’s.

Dutton spent weeks trying to distance himself from the tariff-tossing US leader, but it wasn’t enough to convince Australian voters that he was the right person to lead the country through this moment of global turmoil.

Result could signal new era of political stability in Australia

Saturday’s result made Albanese the first Australian prime minister to win re-election for 20 years, and could herald an end to the revolving door of leaders that has defined the nation’s politics since the turn of the millennium.

Albanese will start his second term with at least 85 seats in the 150-seat lower house – a significant majority in Australia – while the Liberal coalition currently holds just 37, according to the latest count by public broadcaster the ABC.

The country has had six different prime ministers in the last 18 years, most of whom lasted about three years in office, in line with the frequency of Australian elections. But a commanding win and healthy majority set Albanese up for another three years or even more. That potentially gives him the opportunity to shape the country’s politics in his and his party’s image in a way no leader has since the Liberals’ John Howard in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

During a time of trade turmoil, he was able to demonstrate a steady hand, striking an authoritative tone in response to Trump’s decision to impose 10% tariffs on Australia, which were later paused.

Local disaster for Dutton compounds national defeat

Dutton not only lost the national contest, but was also ousted from his own seat in the northeastern state of Queensland, in a shock defeat to Labor’s Ali France.

It was another echo of events in Canada, where Poilievre lost his longtime seat in rural Ottawa.

Dutton had held the Dickson seat for more than two decades, and had twice before seen off a challenge from France, a former journalist, world champion para-athlete and disability advocate who lost her leg in a 2011 accident.

After her victory, France paid tribute to her son Henry, who died from leukemia last year.

“My son, Henry, he wanted me to do this. He was convinced that I would win this,” France told Sky News after her win. “I thought I wouldn’t be running, because I would be caring for him. And he would say to me, ‘No, Mum, you have to do this. I know you’re going to win this this time.’ And I feel he’s been with me on this journey,” she said.

Dutton congratulated France in his concession speech Saturday, in which he also mentioned his political rival’s recent bereavement.

“I said to Ali, her son, Henry, would be incredibly proud of her tonight, and she’ll do a good job as a local member for Dickson,” Dutton said.

Cost of living and climate concerns outweighed culture wars

Australian voters put their faith in Albanese’s plans for tackling the high cost of living and climate change over Dutton’s Trump-style ideological approach, which at times did not appear to be backed by policy proposals.

Dutton called Indigenous “welcome to country” ceremonies “overdone” and said they shouldn’t be performed at sports games or military events. In 2023, Dutton successfully campaigned against the government’s referendum on the Voice proposal, which included constitutional recognition for Indigenous Australians.

He also claimed Australia takes in too many migrants, and branded the public broadcaster “hate media.”

Dutton vowed to crack down on “woke” culture and promised to end “indoctrination” in schools, before later clarifying his party didn’t have any plans to change the curriculum.

Australian voters, meanwhile, seemed more moved by cost-of-living concerns and climate change – two areas in which Dutton was seen as not having a strong enough strategy.

While Albanese was criticized for not doing enough to tame rising living costs during his first term, in the years ahead he’s promised a tax cut, cheaper medicines, lower deposits for first-time buyers and 1.2 million houses to ease the housing crisis.

Similarly, despite criticism over his approval of new coal and gas projects in his first term, Albanese reiterated his commitment to climate action, in contrast to the rolling assault inflicted by the new US administration on environment agencies and research.

All Australians know “renewable energy is an opportunity we must work together to seize for the future of our economy,” Albanese said to cheers.

“Kinder” politics prevails

As the son of a single mother who often talks about growing up on a housing estate, Albanese has long cast himself as champion for social mobility and a “kinder” form of politics.

“My mum had a hard life, and we struggled financially, but she taught me to always be positive and see the best in people when it comes to Australia’s future,” he said.

During the campaign, he frequently tried to distance himself and Dutton. Asked whether Trump had helped his campaign, by darkening the brand of strongman leaders, Albanese told the ABC on Monday that Dutton had done that by himself.

During his victory speech, Albanese shut down boos in the crowd when he mentioned he’d spoken to Dutton. “No, no,” he said to an enthusiastic crowd of Labor supporters in Sydney. “What we do in Australia is we treat people with respect,” he said to cheers.

Albanese didn’t mention Trump but alluded to his presence in campaign discussion. “We do not need to beg or borrow or copy from anywhere else. We do not seek out as inspiration overseas. We find it right here, in our values and in our people,” he said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

This week, we’re watching three high-profile names–Palantir (PLTR), Uber (UBER), and Coinbase (COIN)–as they gear up for earnings. These stocks could offer up some interesting setups with favorable risk/reward entry points. Let’s break down what’s happening with each one.

Palantir (PLTR): Watching for an AI-Driven Breakout

PLTR stock almost got back to its all-time highs after a sell-off that saw the stock price drop by as much as 47% from its February peak. Two key factors will be in focus: AI and government-backed contracts.

Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is a big piece of the puzzle. Analysts anticipate commercial revenue to increase by 35% year-over-year, driven by the company’s efforts to penetrate industries such as healthcare, energy, and finance.

Government contracts account for about 55% of the company’s total revenue. Investor concerns revolve around the ability to secure and maintain these contracts amid potential Department of Defense budget cuts.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF PLTR STOCK. The stock closed below its all-time high and has a history of big gaps on earnings day.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Technically, PLTR stock is at a key inflection point. The stock closed right under its all-time high and has a history of big gaps on earnings day. It traded higher in five of the last six earnings reports, with an average gain of 21%.

Watch the gaps… Gap ups tend to continue in that direction and lead to sustained uptrends. Use any upside gap to enter and manage risk, with stops set to exit if it starts to reverse and fill. A gap in this case, and given its momentum, could see shares eclipse the $150 mark.

On the downside, there are several levels of support. The biggest area is in the purple-shaded area surrounding the 50-day moving average. The $84 area would fill the gap from last earnings and could become a solid floor, going forward.

Either way, it’s a coin flip technically entering earnings, but the next move should set up interesting entry points.

Uber Technology (UBER)

Uber’s stock price has performed extremely well compared to the rest of the market this year. The stock is up 40% year-to-date. As UBER heads into earnings on May 7, expectations are rising. The stock price has already broken out and is trading near all-time highs.

Last quarter’s guidance fell short of expectations. That will be a big focus again. Investors will also be looking to see if UBER can sustain gross bookings numbers. They’re supposed to grow by 17%-21% year-over-year. We may also hear about Uber’s strategic moves in the evolving landscape of autonomous transportation.

FIGURE 2: DAILY CHART OF UBER STOCK. Uber has been trading in a broad range in the past year.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Technically, Uber shares have traded in a broad range in the past year. During this time, there was one failed breakdown and one failed breakout. We enter this week’s report on the heels of another breakout.

This could be an example of price leading the news. We will find out when Uber reports on Wednesday morning. An upside target of $100 should be in the cards, with confirmation of this move out of this rectangular neutral trend. If it fails to hold above the $80/$82 level, then a drop to its key moving averages is likely.

While the stock is nearing overbought territory, shares have remained overbought for an extended period during major moves higher. Use any break below 70 in the relative strength index (RSI) to take profits or sell.

Coinbase (COIN): Looking to Break a Losing Streak

Coinbase will be looking to snap a four-quarter losing streak post-earnings when it reports on Thursday. Shares of the cryptocurrency platform have been quite volatile and began the week lower by -16.5% year-to-date.

Investors will be looking for insights into Uber’s ability to capitalize on increased trading volumes, along with any news on plans to diversify revenue streams and strategically position itself within the current regulatory landscape.

FIGURE 3: DAILY CHART OF COINBASE STOCK PRICE. Fibonacci levels help identify areas of interest.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Technically, shares have taken quite a ride over the past two years. The Fibonacci extension lines on the chart demonstrate the significance and help identify levels of interest where traders may gain opportunities.

The stock remains in its near-term downtrend going back to its December peak. The floor seems to be established for now, with support levels around $180 and major support by the “golden ratio” around $150. If there is any weakness, then look to these levels to possibly add to the name.

The upside seems more challenging. Shares remain weaker than many of its peers and are still mired in a near-term downtrend with clear resistance around the 200-day moving average at $226. If COIN were to break and close above this threshold, then there is a lot to reverse given a much clearer reward than risk set-up. For now, it’s one to watch to see what price action does when the company reports on Thursday afternoon.



I feel like the short-term risk is turning once again and I’ll explain why in my analysis below. Please don’t misunderstand. I suggested a bottom was in place a few weeks ago and I LOVE what has been happening in terms of manipulation/accumulation and I LOVE the fact that we were able to quickly regain both the 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA on our major indices.

However, here are the four major indices and where they’re at currently on their respective charts and their next key overhead resistance levels:

Dow Jones

We did manage to close just above the 50-day SMA here, but the Dow Jones still appears vulnerable to me. Given the fact that the S&P 500 has room to run up to what is now major price resistance at 5782, I could see the Dow Jones moving a bit higher to challenge the late-March high at approximately 42750. That could serve as a neckline.

S&P 500

20-day EMA resistance? No problem, went right through. Gap resistance 5500? Ditto. 50-day SMA resistance. Ditto. This rally has been impressive. Key levels of price resistance have failed and this tells me that we’re not going to violate the low at 4835. It’s set in stone, in my opinion. There are still a couple of key resistance levels on the S&P 500 that we’ll have to deal with next week. The first will be the early-April rebound attempt that failed near 5700. Today’s intraday high was 5700. The next one, however, will be the biggest on the chart and that’s where we last failed in late March – at 5782.

NASDAQ 100:

Looks similar to the S&P 500, but I did add the RSI to this chart. During downtrends, RSI 60 tends to be rather big resistance. We see many rallies fail at or near that level. The NDX just crossed RSI 60….barely. At our Friday intraday high, the NASDAQ 100 pulled within 100 points (less than 0.5%) of the late-March high near 20250. I don’t know if we turn here or not, but I do know the risks are elevated.

Russell 2000:

The 197 level offered great price support on multiple occasions, so when we see a heavy-volume breakdown like we saw in early April, we should recognize how important it is to clear that same price resistance on the way back up. We did so on Friday with gusto. I absolutely LOVE the sudden accumulation that’s taken place in the IWM. I believe that will result in a much larger move at some point later this year. But are we due for another round of selling first, perhaps at upcoming price resistance levels marked above? We’ll soon find out.

Be careful ahead, especially if a rising-volume, reversing candle prints on our major indices sometime next week.

Sentiment

Check out this 5-day SMA of the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE):

We just hit 0.55, showing the most complacency we’ve seen in the past 5 weeks or so. Extreme low readings have previously marked corrections and/or cyclical bear markets and that was one key topping indicator that I discussed back in January/February. Other prior moves down to 0.55 have also resulted in short-term tops. I thought the current .55 reading was worth pointing out for this reason.

Seasonality could also play a role. Early May (through the 5th) tends to provide historical tailwinds, but the middle part of May (6th through 25th) has a history of being rather challenging. The 5th is Monday, so given everything I’ve discussed above and knowing that our bullish seasonal window could soon be closing, watch for a potential reversing candle as a sign to think about reducing risk (covered calls, S&P 500 puts for insurance, moving to cash, etc.).

I’m not ready to definitively call a short-term top here, but I do want to point out that the SHORT-TERM risks of being long right now are growing. Do with that what you may.

If you’d like to follow more articles of mine, please CLICK HERE to join the tens of thousands who’ve already subscribed to our FREE EB Digest newsletter. There is no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Happy trading!

Tom

We just wrapped up a busy week jam-packed with key economic data and big tech earnings. And we have some positive news: the market held up pretty well. May is off to a good start.

Strong earnings from META Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) gave the stock market a boost. Together, their strong performance helped the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) break above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

On Friday, the rally got an extra shot in the arm from a better-than-expected jobs report—177,000 jobs added vs. 135,000 expected. That helped fuel a market-wide rally, with all the major indexes ending the week in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closed up 1.46%, the S&P 500 ($SPX) up 1.42%, and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) up 1.41%.

A quick glance at the Equities panel (US Indexes tab) in the Market Summary page shows that the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, Russell 1000, and the Wilshire 5000 had nine consecutive up days. This is quite the reversal after trade war outcomes spooked investors. The weekly streak isn’t too shabby either, with many indexes displaying four consecutive up streaks. More indexes are now trading above their 50-day moving averages compared to a few days ago.

What Does This Mean Going Forward?

After a negative statistic in the Q1 GDP growth, the strong jobs report put recessionary fears in the rearview mirror. However, this also lowers the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the May FOMC meeting. And looking at the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in June has dropped to 36.4%, so it may be July before we see a rate cut. But this scenario could change between now and June.

Does this week’s price action mean the equity market is reversing? One thing is clear: The situation is much more positive than it was three weeks ago. But to get an objective view, it’s best to focus on the charts.

The Technical PoV

The daily chart of $SPX below shows that Friday’s close basically wipes out the “post Liberation Day” losses. Essentially, all the volatile action that took place in the last month was an emotional reaction to the uncertainty that investors were battling against. It was an emotional roller coaster. Now that the S&P 500 is back to the high of April 2, does it mean things have returned to business as usual?

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500. The index closed at around the same level it did on Liberation Day. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Seasonally, May is a good month in the stock market, as are June and July. You can see this in the seasonality chart of the S&P 500. The data supports some of the price action we’re seeing, especially among sectors and industry groups.

Sector Snapshot

All 11 S&P sectors closed in the green on Friday. For the week, Industrials, Technology, and Financials were the leading sectors. It’s interesting to note that Friday’s leading sector, Financials, is showing signs of recovery after the April fall. The daily chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) shows the ETF trading above its 50- and 200-day SMAs. Its relative strength index (RSI) is also rising.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XLF. The ETF broke above its 50-day moving average and its relative strength is also rising. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Of the three, the Technology sector is technically the weakest. It’s trading below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA is below its 200-day SMA. To see strength return to the broader market, the Technology sector needs show technical strength.

The Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMP) is at 46.52. It showed a reversal from a level just above 20 and crossed above 30, indicating a bull alert. A cross above 50 would be a favorable bull signal.

FIGURE 3. NASDAQ COMPOSITE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX. After a sharp reversal from above 20, $BPCOMPQ crossed above the 30 level and is approaching the 50 level. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Keep an eye on this chart, since a break above 50 could be an early signal of improving breadth in the Nasdaq Composite.

At the Close

While the stock market’s price action seems to have regained some of its momentum, there needs to be more confirmation to suggest a trend reversal. Keep an eye on the charts of the broader indexes, sectors, and the BPIs. Look for technical indicators to confirm the rally’s strength and keep an eye on interest rate expectations.


End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 up 2.92% on the week, at 5686.67, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 3.0% on the week at 41,317.43; Nasdaq Composite up 3.42% on the week at 17,977.73.
  • $VIX down 8.86% on the week, closing at 22.64.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Industrials
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Duolingo Inc. (DUOL); Summit Therapeutics PLC (SMMT); MicroStrategy (MSTR); Roblox Corp (RBLX)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Earnings season continues with Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO), Ford (F), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and several others reporting.
  • ISM Services PMI
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference
  • Fed speeches from Kugler, Goolsbee, Waller, Williams, and others on Friday

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

With the major averages logging a strong up week across the board, and with the Nasdaq 100 finally retesting its 200-day moving average from below, it can feel like a challenging time to take a shot at winning charts. You may ask yourself, “Do I really want to be betting on further upside after an incredibly strong April?”

When the macro environment feels less certain, I find it’s helpful to go back to tried-and-true technical analysis approaches. By identifying stocks with constructive chart patterns, we can hopefully focus our attention on names that could do well regardless of the overall market movements in the coming weeks.

With that bottom-up investing justification in mind, let’s review three recent earnings names that are showing strong technical profiles going into next week.

Visa Inc. (V)

Both Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) reported earnings, and both stocks experienced an upside follow-through after their quarterly report. Visa has been pounding out a consistent pattern of lower lows and lower highs since the end of February, but this week appears to have broken that downtrend pattern.

After Tuesday’s earnings release, Visa completed a move out of the downtrend phase by breaking trendline resistance using the major peaks from February and March. Wednesday’s up day pushed V back above the 50-day moving average, a level which had repelled a previous breakout attempt in mid-April. MA has now broken above its late March high, and a similar move next week would suggest a retest of all-time highs for Visa.

Coca Cola Co. (KO)

The Consumer Staples sector pulled back this week, and leading names in the sector, such as Coca-Cola (KO), experienced a brief drop post-earnings. KO is demonstrating a cup-and-handle pattern, although we’ve not seen the breakout that would serve to confirm a bullish outlook.

We’ve used the Annotations tool to draw a rectangle marking the resistance zone from the September 2024 peak. Subsequent peaks in March and April 2025 have retested this same range, forming the cup-and-handle pattern which often precedes a strong upthrust. The trigger for this pattern is a confirmed break above the rim of the cup, and, with this week’s pullback, investors will have to wait for this bullish confirmation.

We’ve noted the bearish momentum divergence in recent months, with the higher price highs in March and April marked by weaker RSI peaks. With this bearish divergence clearly signalling a weaker momentum profile, we would need to see a valid break above $74 on stronger RSI readings to negate the divergence and confirm an upside breakout.

CME Group Inc. (CME)

Since I discussed the exchanges with Jay Woods on my Market Misbehavior podcast back in February, I’ve been following the resilient uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. The daily chart features a series of consolidation patterns followed by upside breakouts that have led to further gains.

This is the kind of chart that I think about when someone asks, “But if you’re buying the new highs list, isn’t that too late?” The chart of CME shows that new highs often lead to even more new highs. And when a stock like CME Group keeps pulling back to an ascending 50-day moving average, I’m reminded the essence of trend-following is to remain invested in charts that continue to work.

In the immortal words of legendary technical analyst Paul Montgomery, “The most bullish thing the market can do is go up!”


I had the pleasure of heading back into the StockCharts TV studio this week to shoot the “Top Ten Stocks for May 2025” video with Grayson Roze. Visa was one of the five stocks I contributed. Check out the other nine in this week’s video!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.