The bullish signals stacked up in April and May, but most long-term breadth indicators are still bearish. SPY and QQQ showed signs of capitulation in early April and rebounded into mid April. A Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered on April 24th and several other thrust indicators turned bullish in May. We also saw SPY and QQQ break their 200-day SMAs. TrendInvestorPro is tracking these signals and relevant exit strategies.

These are bullish indications for large-caps and, perhaps, stocks in the top half of the S&P 500. However, I would not call it a bull market until participation broadens. The chart below shows the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) moving back below their 200-day SMAs. The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) never came close and remains a big laggard.   

The bottom window is perhaps the most telling. It shows the percentage of S&P 1500 stocks above their 200-day SMAs. This long-term breadth indicator did not cross above 50% in May. Except for a 1-day dip on January 10th, this indicator was above 50% from December 2023 to February 2025 (bull market). It broke below 40% on March 10th and has yet to fully recover (bear market).

At the very least, a move above 50% is needed to show broadening participation worth of a bull market. This is how the market moves from bullish thrust signals to a bull market.  Until such a move, we are still in bear market mode and risk remains above average for stocks. Note that the S&P 1500 includes large-caps (500), small-caps (600) and mid-caps (400). Around 2/3 of components NYSE stocks and 1/3 Nasdaq stocks. It is a truly representative of the broader market.

Exit strategies are just as important as entries. The Zweig Breadth Thrust and the 5/200 day SMA cross provided entry signals in April and May. We now need an exit strategy. TrendInvestorPro put forth exit strategies for both signals and these are updated in our reports. This week we covered the gap zones in SPY and QQQ, long-term breadth signals, big moves in metals and continued strength in Bitcoin. Click here to take a trial and gain full access.

 ////////////////////////////////////////////

My main question going into this weekend was, “Will the S&P 500 finish the week above its 200-day moving average?” And while the S&P 500 did indeed finish the week above this long-term trend barometer, our main equity benchmark is now within the gap range from earlier this month.

We’ll get to that crucial S&P 500 chart a little later, but first, I’d like to explain why gaps matter, why the price action post-gap is so important, and then apply these lessons to the SPX.

The “Gap and Run” Scenario Suggests an Influx of Buyers

One of two things tends to happen after a gap higher within an uptrend phase. The first scenario, which I call a “gap and run” pattern, is when additional buyers come in to push the price even higher.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) features this gap and run pattern, with the gap higher on their Q1 earnings report followed by an additional appreciation in price.  Basically, investors are not afraid to accumulate more MSFT, even after the stock gapped up from $395 to $430 overnight.

Did you catch our recent webcast, “Sell in May 2025: Seasonal Strategy or Outdated Myth?” We looked at the performance in May-June-July since the COVID low, then made a comparison between 2025 and the first half of 2022, when a break below the 200-day moving average was a sign of much further deterioration to come.  Check out this excerpt on our YouTube channel!

Shares of Howmet Aerospace (HWM) demonstrated a similar gap and run pattern recently, although this example is perhaps even more significant because the gap took the price to a new all-time high! Again, we can see that additional buyers are coming in and accumulating more HWM, fueling further gains after the gap.

The “Gap and Fail” Pattern Shows a Lack of Willing Buyers

Sometimes, a chart will show a very different path after the gap, forming what I’ve termed a “gap and fail” pattern.  Unlike the previous examples, here you’ll see that a lack of willing buyers causes the stock to quickly reverse lower into the range of the price gap.

In the case of semiconductor producer Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), the gap higher earlier this month was followed by two additional up days, which propelled the stock above its 200-day moving average. This short-term pop higher was followed by a sudden downside reversal, representing an exhaustion of buyers after the upside gap.

First Solar (FSLR) is demonstrating a similar pattern to MPWR, with a gap higher which pushed the stock just above the 200-day moving average to test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A couple days later, FSLR was back below the 200-day moving average, followed by further deterioration that eventually closed the gap from earlier in May.

The S&P 500 Could Test Its Own Gap Support

So what do those example charts have to do with the S&P 500? Well, the SPX traded higher for about a week after the upside gap in early May. We’ve drawn a green-shaded range to highlight the gap from around 5725 to 5780. This gap includes the 200-day moving average and also lines up with the late March swing high.

I see the S&P 500 as in a constructive pattern as long as it remains above this price gap range. If we can see an upswing after this week’s pullback, then this could just be a pause within a broader recovery phase for the S&P.

On the other hand, if we see any further price weakness from the major benchmarks next week, then the chart of the S&P 500 will start to look pretty similar to other “gap and fail” charts that confirm a lack of willing buyers. If we do see that downside follow-through next week, we’d expect further deterioration to the 5500 level, representing a 50% retracement of the February to April selloff phase.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

In this insightful overview, Grayson dives into StockCharts’ powerful scanning capabilities. He shows you how to navigate the markets quickly with the sample scan library, and automate your stock screening with the scheduled scans feature.

This video originally premiered on May 23, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

This week, while everyone else is focused on NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), we will focus our attention on stocks with earnings that may get overlooked.

We’re watching a different group of stocks heading into earnings: Okta, Inc. (OKTA), AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), and Salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM). OKTA and AZO are making new highs as they head into their earnings call, while CRM is struggling.

Let’s break down the best risk/reward set-ups as we kick off the week.

Okta, Inc. (OKTA): Volatility Now, Potential Later

Okta’s stock price broke out to new 52-week highs a week before it posts its quarterly numbers. The cybersecurity company has experienced extreme volatility after posting earnings. In the last three quarters, the stock saw some pretty big swings—up 24.3%, up 5.4%, and down 17.6%. Its average price change post-earnings is +/-10.2%.

Technically, I love this setup. Let’s look at a five-year daily chart.

Shares have broken out ahead of earnings and have a lot to reverse. If we see weakness after results, there are several support areas where we would want to enter the stock with favorable risk/reward. The first strong support area is between $115/$118, an old resistance level that the stock just eclipsed. Old resistance could act as new support and provide an opportunity.

Outside of recent weakness due to “Liberation Day,” OKTA’s stock price has outperformed its peers and held key moving averages. Use levels just below the 50-day moving average around $110 as a near-term stop if $115 doesn’t hold.

To the upside, there is much to reverse and targets of $150 to $160 are attainable. If you’re a longer-term investor, the downtrend is broken and the bulls are back in charge.

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO): Riding Steady 

The retail leader in automotive replacement parts and accessories, AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), continues to rise, slowly and steadily, despite market volatility. The stock price is up 20% year-to-date, and we hope to add to those gains when they report on Tuesday morning.

One thing that has helped AZO’s continued growth is that the average car is roughly 12 years old. Consumers are investing more in maintenance and repairs instead of purchasing new vehicles. And with tariffs, buying a new car becomes more expensive, which benefits the car repair and maintenance business.

Let’s look at that long-term uptrend on a weekly chart going back five years.

The stock is a juggernaut. It has ridden the 50-week moving average consistently since Covid. It is in a beautiful uptrend and made new highs again just last week.

While the trend itself appears a tad extended above its averages, any trip back towards its recent uptrend line gives investors a strong entry point, with downside risk towards its 50-week moving average.

It’s also the best in class when compared to its top competitors, such as O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) and Advanced Auto Parts (AAP). When looking at strong uptrends in a challenging environment, it’s best to find the best in class, and AZO continues to be just that. The trend continues to be the investor’s best friend.

Salesforce (CRM) Hits a Crossroads

A year ago, Salesforce (CRM) shocked investors with a revenue miss for the first time since 2006. This resulted in the stock price dropping 20% (red box in the chart below). It marked the stock’s low point, as it rallied as much as 74% over the next seven months. It now sits in the middle of a wide year-long range and is poised to move again.

Which way will it go? To examine that question, let’s look at the daily chart of CRM.

Technically, shares are at a crossroads. Shares dropped 37% from their December peak after forming a double top. It just broke its near-term downtrend from its post-Liberation Day lows, experiencing a 28% rally, but paused right at its 200-day moving average.

Momentum appears to be negative. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has formed a bearish crossover, and shares failed to eclipse the 200-day. Shares are down -18% for 2025, underperforming the tech sector and the S&P 500. CRM sold off late Friday, hitting its 50-day moving average, on news that it’s in talks to acquire Informatica.

If you’re thinking of buying CRM, you may want to hold your horses. Watch the 50-day moving average around $270 to see if it can hold. On strength, look for confirmation and a close above the $295 level for an all clear that momentum has finally shifted in favor of the bulls.

Final Thoughts

OKTA, AZO, and CRM are thoughtful plays based on technical trends and real-world fundamentals. OKTA and AZO could have favorable risk/reward setups. As for CRM, add it to your ChartLists and monitor it regularly.

It scares me to admit I’ve been investing for over 50 years. It’s been a great ride, and fortunately I’m still going strong. One of my investment mantras thru all these years has been Charlie Munger’s quintessential advice: “try to be consistently not stupid.”

We all make investing mistakes, but not all of us learn the appropriate lessons from those mistakes. This blog is less about mistakes and more about lessons. If the investment genie were to offer me a redo on my portfolio management execution from these past decades, here are seven things I would do differently next time around.

1. More USA, less international. I know what you’re thinking—what about diversification? But I believe that William O’Neil had it right all along. American ingenuity is where you want to invest. Besides, great American companies do business all over the globe. Microsoft is doing your diversification for you.
2. Hot money managers are not worth chasing. I’ve been guilty of this. Sometimes it works, but only if you get in early and don’t overstay to the point when their hot hand inevitably cools — and it will. I have a long list of managers who can claim this crown.
3. Keep it simple. Adding complexity or asset classes or different methodologies to your portfolio mix seldom results in outperformance, but we investors will continue to be tempted. Something about human nature wants to seek out complexity. Fight the urge.
4. Private equity and hedge funds. Recently, the number of new funds and new money has swollen significantly. I never liked the high fees, long terms and lack of liquidity. There are just too many other sensational stock market options (albeit less sexy for cocktail party discussions.)
5. Fees matter. Even small differences matter and will add up over time. Too often, investors pay for the Los Angeles Dodgers and end up getting the Wichita Mudcats.
6. Ride those winners! I’ve had five long term holdings that have paid a lot of bills. Hold tight when you find an AMZN, MSFT, COST, V, or MA.
7. Investing is the art of man versus markets. The voodoo within investing is how best to control your Investor Self. If you memorize only one of the 10 Essential Stages of Stock Market Mastery from our book, let it be Stage 3—The Investor Self.

Trade well; trade with discipline!

Gatis Roze, MBA, CMT

StockMarketMastery.com

• Author, “Tensile Trading: The 10 Essential Stages of Stock Market Mastery” (Wiley, 2016)
• Developer of the “Stock Market Mastery” ChartPack for StockCharts members
• Presenter of the best-selling “Tensile Trading” DVD seminar
• Presenter of the “How to Master Your Asset Allocation Profile DVD” seminar

P.S. If you would like to be notified when I post a new Traders Journal blog, please submit your preference via the tile in the right column titled FOLLOW THIS BLOG.