Archive

May 4, 2025

Browsing

In the truncated week due to one trading holiday, the markets extended their gains and closed the week on a positive note. While remaining largely within a defined range, the Nifty continued consolidating above its 200-DMA while not adopting any sustainable directional bias. While the Index continued defending its key support levels, it oscillated in the range of 535.10 points. Volatility continued moving higher; the India Vix surged by 6.41% to 18.26 on a weekly basis. While staying positive, the headline index closed with a net weekly gain of 307.35 points (+1.28%).

From a technical standpoint, the Nifty has kept its underlying bias intact; it is currently consolidating above the 200-DMA positioned at 24050. The 50-week MA is placed at 23962. This makes the 24950-24050 a strong 200-point support zone for the Nifty for the coming weeks and the foreseeable short term. So long as the Index keeps it above this 200-point support zone, it will just consolidate and not show any major drawdowns. However, any violation of 24900 will increase the possibility of some corrective retracement. Watching Nifty’s behavior vis-à-vis the zone of 23950-24050 would be crucial over the coming days.

The geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan remain ingrained in the market behavior; the rise in Vix shows increased hedging activity by the market participants. Monday is likely to see a stable start to the day; the levels of 24550 and 24780 are likely to act as resistance levels. The supports come in at 24050 and 23900. The trading range is expected to stay wider than usual.

The weekly RSI stands at 57.92. While the RSI has formed a fresh 14-period high, it remains neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and trades above its signal line.

The pattern analysis shows that on the daily chart, the Nifty crossed above the 200-DMA a few days ago; now, it is consolidating just above this important level. It has penetrated the 50-week MA placed at 23962, and this level is now expected to act as support in the event of any corrective retracement. Importantly, the Nifty has resisted the rising trendline pattern resistance near 24600. This trendline begins at 21130 levels and joins the subsequent rising bottoms.

The coming week will require a more cautious approach as the markets not only deal with key resistance levels but also with geopolitical tensions that remain embedded in the backdrop. The investors will need to move away from the stocks that have risen over the past weeks and move to those sectors and stocks that are readying for a fresh move. While focusing more on low-beta stocks, the leverage, too, needs to be curtailed. The Index has risen over 2500 points over the past three weeks, and if it consolidates a bit, it should not surprise the market participants. A highly cautious and stock-specific approach is advised for the coming week.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty FMCG index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The PSU Bank, Infrastructure, and Consumption Index are also inside the leading quadrant. The Metal, Commodities, Financial Services, and Nifty Bank Index are also inside this quadrant, but they are giving up on their relative momentum. However, these groups may continue to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Services Sector Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant.

While the Nifty IT index continues to languish inside the lagging quadrant, the Midcap 100, Auto, Realty, and Pharma Indices are seen improving their relative momentum while being inside the lagging quadrant.

The Nifty Media, PSE, and Energy Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they are expected to better their relative performance against the broader markets.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae


The market does not always follow the same script or sequence, but bear markets typically end with a bottoming process marked by specific stages. These include capitulation, a short-term reversal-thrust, a follow-through thrust and long-term regime change. The first two stages mark downside excess and the initial turn around, while the latter two signal strong follow through. Today’s report will look at the first two phases, and preview the last two.

Phase 1: Capitulation

The capitulation phase of a bear market occurs when traders throw in the towel as downside momentum and selling pressure accelerate. Usually, the capitulation phase occurs after an extended decline, and this phase is the first step to a bottom. The chart below shows SPY with Bollinger Bands (200,3), %B (200,3) and S&P 500 Percent Above 200-day SMA ($SPXA200R). Signs of capitulation emerge when %B is below 0 and/or fewer than 20% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. The blue dashed lines show capitulation in June 2022, September 2022 and early April 2025. Note that we initially covered this capitulation phase in a report on April 8th.

Phase 2: Short-term Thrust Signals (ZBT)

Phase 2 is marked by a sharp-reversal from oversold extremes and an upside thrust. The Zweig Breadth Thrust is perhaps the most famous thrust indicator these days. We covered the ZBT extensively over the last few weeks and introduced a strategy using this indicator. The chart below shows the S&P 1500 ZBT indicator in the lower window (10-day EMA of S&P 1500 AD%). A thrust signal triggered on April 24th and stocks followed through with further gains.  

Two Down and Two to Go

The capitulation phase showed excessive selling pressure and the thrust phase marked a short-term reversal. These are bullish events, but the market cup is not yet half full. SPY remains below its 200-day SMA and the late March high (see chart above). Medium-term thrust indicators have yet to trigger and long-term breadth remains bearish. The 14% surge over the last 17 days is impressive, but keep in mind that SPY surged 10% in nine days in March 2022, which was a bear market bounce.

TrendInvestorPro produced a report this week covering the four phases – and what to watch going forward. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access.

  • Phase 1: Capitulation
  • Phase 2: Short-term Thrust Signals
  • Phase 3: Medium-term Thrust Signals
  • Capitulation and Thrust Indexes
  • Phase 4: Long-term Indicators turn Bullish
  • Short-term Improvements, but Longer Term 

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Gold trended down this week, dropping to just over US$3,200 per ounce on the first day of May.

While the yellow metal remains historically high after a strong run this year, its price has pulled back from last week’s record-setting level of US$3,500, causing concern for some market participants.

However, many experts agree that this week’s retreat isn’t a reason to worry.

His technical analysis shows that the US$3,100 to US$3,140 area will be important to watch moving forward — in his view, that’s when bullish players should start re-entering the space, boosting the price.

Soloway also outlined gold’s future price potential, saying he sees a potential path to US$7,000. Check out the full interview for more of his thoughts on gold, as well as silver and the US economy.

Bullet briefing — Fed to meet next week, US-Ukraine deal signed

Market watchers eye Fed meeting

Eyes are shifting to the US Federal Reserve’s next meeting, set to run from May 6 to 7. It follows initial numbers showing that real GDP contracted by an annual rate of 0.3 percent in Q1.

That’s the first negative reading since 2022, and as the news weighed on the stock market, US President Donald Trump took to social media to suggest the data is an ‘overhang’ from Joe Biden’s term.

Trump has pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates sooner than later, but CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows the vast majority of market participants expect rates to stay flat.

Trump advisor Elon Musk also has his eye on the Fed. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday (April 30), he said the US$2.5 billion renovation of the central bank’s headquarters could become a point of inquiry for the Department of Government Efficiency, better known as DOGE.

Calling the cost an ‘eyebrow raiser,’ Musk questioned where the money is being spent. The price of the project was initially set at US$1.9 billion in 2021, but has increased since then.

‘Since at the end of the day, this is all taxpayer money, I think we certainly — we should definitely — look to see if indeed the Federal Reserve is spending $2.5 billion on their interior designer’ — Musk

US, Ukraine sign critical minerals deal

The US and Ukraine signed a much-anticipated minerals deal on Wednesday, ending months of often-tense negotiations between the two countries. If approved by parliament in Ukraine, the agreement will set up a reconstruction investment fund that will be split 50/50 between each party.

According to Ukrainian officials, the deal is more equitable than previous versions.

The fund will be financed only by new licenses for critical materials, oil and gas; aside from that, Ukraine will not have to pay back wartime aid provided by the US.

While Ukraine had pushed for security guarantees from the US, that component ultimately wasn’t put in place. However, the US may provide new assistance to Ukraine, such as air defense systems.

A total of 55 minerals are reportedly covered in the arrangement, but more can be added in the future if there is consensus between the US and Ukraine. Although the US will get preferential rights to mineral extraction, Ukraine will have the final say on what is mined and where, and will retain subsoil ownership.

The agreement comes on the back of an increasing global focus on critical minerals, many of which are key for new technology and important industries like defense.

It’s worth noting that while Ukraine is home to a wide variety of these commodities, more geological data will be needed to determine commercial viability — for example, there is no up-to-date information on the country’s reserves of rare earths, which are important to the US.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

A sea of people filled Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana beach on Saturday as pop superstar Lady Gaga played a colossal free concert in the Brazilian city, with more than two million fans said to have attended.

Guests started queuing from early Saturday morning to secure a good spot for the show, which is paid for by local authorities. Organizers said about 2.1 million revelers were estimated to have been in the crowd.

“I feel the city is more crowded this time, but I’m very excited”, said the film maker.

Many fans – which the star refers to as her “Little Monsters” – had dressed up in Gaga-themed costumes, referencing major hits like “Poker Face,” “Born This Way” and “Bad Romance.”

Lady Gaga’s trip to Brazil is part of a global tour to promote “Mayhem,” her new album. The genre-hopping singer and actor, 39, was in Mexico City last week, where she played two concerts.

The night before the Rio concert, the pop star surprised beachgoers on Copacabana by taking the stage for a rehearsal.

“I’ve missed you so much”, she said between applause, during her first performance in Brazil since 2012. “I know that this is not the first show here, I know this is just a rehearsal, it feels like it’s the real show,” she added before breaking into “Alejandro.”

“The truth is that the energy here in Copacabana is incredible,” Abril said. “Rio is incredible and it always lends itself to parties and magical moments.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A four-year-old girl and a man have been killed after a driver crashed an SUV into the entrance of Manila International Airport on Sunday, the Philippine Red Cross said.

The driver crashed the car through the outer railing and onto a walkway where people were standing outside the departure area at Ninoy Aquino International Airport’s Terminal 1 just before 9 a.m., the Philippine Red Cross said in a statement.

“The incident tragically resulted in the casualties of two individuals – a male adult and a 4-year-old girl,” it said.

The driver is in police custody and individuals are being treated for injuries, the airport’s operator said in a statement, though it did not specify how many people were hurt.

There is currently no indication from police that the crash was deliberate.

The Philippine Red Cross said it deployed 18 volunteers and five ambulances to respond to the crash, including a rescue vehicle for “potential extrication operations,” according to the statement.

Videos shared on social media by the news agency of the Philippine government showed chaos at the airport, and a black SUV crashed into the entryway of the terminal. People could be heard screaming and crying in the video, which appeared to show several people injured on the ground and baggage strewn about, as first responders attended to the scene.

“At this time, we are awaiting official confirmation on the cause of the incident and reports of injuries,” the statement from the airport’s operator said.

“We understand the concern this incident has caused, especially as images have circulated on social media,” said the statement.

“We urge the public not to speculate and to wait for verified updates, which will be issued as soon as they become available.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

President Donald Trump posted an artificial intelligence-generated image of himself dressed as pope as the mourning of Pope Francis continues and just days before the conclave to elect his successor is set to begin. Trump’s action drew rebukes from a group representing Catholic bishops in New York and among Italians.

The image, shared Friday night on Trump’s Truth Social site and later reposted by the White House on its official X account, raised eyebrows on social media and at the Vatican, which is still in the period of nine days of official mourning following Francis’ death on April 21. Catholic cardinals have been celebrating daily Masses in his memory and are due to open the conclave to elect his successor on Wednesday.

The death of a pope and election of another is a matter of utmost solemnity for Catholics, for whom the pope is Christ’s vicar on Earth. That is all the more true in Italy, where the papacy is held in high esteem even by nonreligious Italians.

The image featuring Trump in a white cassock and pointed miter, or bishop’s hat, was the topic of several questions during the Vatican’s daily conclave briefing Saturday. Italian and Spanish news reports lamented its poor taste and said it was offensive, given that the period of official mourning is still underway.

Left-leaning former Premier Matteo Renzi said the image was shameful. “This is an image that offends believers, insults institutions and shows that the leader of the right-wing world enjoys clowning around,” Renzi wrote on X. “Meanwhile, the US economy risks recession and the dollar loses value. The sovereignists are doing damage, everywhere.”

The Vatican spokesman, Matteo Bruni, declined to comment.

In the United States, the New York State Catholic Conference, which represents the bishops of the state in working with government, accused Trump of mockery.

“There is nothing clever or funny about this image, Mr. President,” they wrote. “We just buried our beloved Pope Francis and the cardinals are about to enter a solemn conclave to elect a new successor of St. Peter. Do not mock us.”

Italy’s left-leaning La Repubblica also featured the image on its homepage Saturday with a commentary accusing Trump of “pathological megalomania.”

Asked to respond to the criticism, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that, “President Trump flew to Italy to pay his respects for Pope Francis and attend his funeral, and he has been a staunch champion for Catholics and religious liberty.”

Jack Posobiec, a prominent far-right influencer and Trump ally who recently participated in a Catholic prayer event in March at Trump’s Florida resort, also defended the president.

“I’m Catholic. We’ve all been making jokes about the upcoming Pope selection all week. It’s called a sense of humor,” he wrote on X.

The episode comes after Trump joked last week about his interest in the vacancy. “I’d like to be pope. That would be my number one choice,” the thrice married president, who is not Catholic, told reporters.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, piled on.

“I was excited to hear that President Trump is open to the idea of being the next Pope. This would truly be a dark horse candidate, but I would ask the papal conclave and Catholic faithful to keep an open mind about this possibility!” Graham, R-S.C., wrote on X. “The first Pope-US President combination has many upsides. Watching for white smoke…. Trump MMXXVIII!”

Vice President JD Vance, who is Catholic and was one of the last foreign officials to meet with Francis before the pope died, also joked about Secretary of State Marco Rubio becoming pope, suggesting Rubio could add it to the long list of titles he holds, including national security adviser and acting archivist.

Beyond floating himself for the job, Trump also has put in a plug for Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the archbishop of New York.

“I have no preference. I must say, we have a cardinal that happens to be out a place called New York who’s very good. So we’ll see what happens,” he said.

Dolan, 75, is one of 10 US cardinals who will be voting in the conclave, but Trump’s pitch might have cost Dolan support.

The reason conclaves are held in secrecy, with cardinals sequestered for the duration, is to prevent outside secular powers from influencing their choice, as occurred in centuries past.

There is an old saying about campaigning for the job of pope or of being promoted excessively, especially by outsiders: If you “enter a conclave as pope, you leave as a cardinal.”

While Trump attended Francis’ funeral, he and Vance have clashed with US bishops in general and Francis in particular over the administration’s hard line stance on immigration and its efforts to deport migrants en masse. Right before he was hospitalized in February for pneumonia, Francis issued a strong rebuke of the administration’s mass deportation plans and Vance’s theological justification of it.

Over 12 years as pope, Francis tried to remake the U.S. Catholic hierarchy more in his image, elevating pastors who prioritized social justice and migration issues over culture warriors who were more favored by his more doctrinaire predecessors St. John Paul II and Benedict XVI. A new pope who is more conservative could reverse that effort.

Trump has nominated as his ambassador to the Holy See Brian Burch, whose Catholicvote.org has been aggressively covering the pre-conclave days at the Vatican. It was one of the main disseminators in English-speaking media of a report, flatly and officially denied by the Vatican, that Cardinal Pietro Parolin had had a health scare this past week that required medical attention.

Parolin was the secretary of state under Francis and is seen as a leading contender to be pope. He is also the main architect of the Vatican’s China policy and its controversial 2018 deal with Beijing over bishop nominations – a deal that the was sharply criticized by the first Trump administration.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Flights resumed at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv after a failed interception of a missile from Yemen on Sunday forced it to halt operations temporarily.

Israel’s military said the missile landed in the airport’s vicinity after “several attempts” at intercepting it failed, adding that “the results of the interception are under review.”

The Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen has repeatedly launched ballistic missiles at Israel, but this appears to be the first time one has landed near the country’s main international airport, a major breach of security at a tightly protected site.

“We will attack whoever attacks us sevenfold,” Israel Katz, the defense minister, said in a statement.

The attack prompted the airport to briefly suspend flights. Trains to and from the airport were also halted and police asked the public to refrain from arriving in the area.

The incident underscores the Houthis’ continued ability to strike distant targets despite a sustained US military campaign and may raise questions about Israel’s capacity to intercept such attacks.

Pictures from the scene showed debris from the impact of the missile on the grounds of the airport, littering the road toward the main terminal. A video shared on social media appeared to show the impact of the missile at the airport and a cloud of black smoke rising from the strike.

Sunday’s strike marks the third consecutive day of missile launches from Yemen toward Israel, according to the Israel Defense Forces.

The Houthis have not claimed responsibility for the latest missile, but a spokesman for the militant group has said previous launches targeted military facilities in Israel. Yahya Saree said over the weekend that the rebels fired “Palestine 2” ballistic missiles “in support of our brothers and sister in Gaza.”

Israel has carried out several strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, including the targeting of a power plant and maritime ports in January.

The US military has carried out far more extensive strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in recent weeks, aiming to the group, whose attacks on Red Sea shipping have significantly disrupted global trade.

The campaign is also aimed at stopping launches targeting Israel, as well as commercial and US Navy vessels operating in the Middle East. Early last month, the cost of US the effort had approached $1 billion in just three weeks, including the deployment of B-2 stealth bombers and the use of hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of high-end munitions.

But it has largely failed to disrupt the Houthis’ ability to launch ballistic missiles against Israel. The country’s vaunted missile defense system routinely intercepts the launches, but some have gotten through.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Australians delivered a surprise election result on Saturday; not because of who won but by the scale of the victory.

It marks a strong recovery for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his center-left Labor party, which had been slumping in the polls earlier this year, and follows a similar swing away from conservatives in Canada in the early months of the second US presidency of Donald Trump.

As the final seats are allocated and the center-right Liberal Party surveys the damage – including the loss of its leader, Peter Dutton, from parliament – here are five takeaways.

‘Trump effect’ boosts another left-leaning government

Albanese’s defeat of Dutton mirrors the outcome of Canada’s federal election last week, where the once-struggling left-leaning Liberal Party soared to victory thanks to a Trump-inspired popularity boost.

In a remarkable political rebound, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals bested Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives after Trump’s tariffs and threats to annex its neighbor changed the fortunes of the governing party, which had been trailing in the polls for years.

While Australia has not faced the same affront to its sovereignty as Canada, the similar election results show Trump’s influence in the domestic politics of longtime US allies.

Dutton was dubbed a ‘Temu Trump’ by his critics – a reference to the budget Chinese online marketplace – in a characterization that may have contributed to his downfall in Australia, where trust in the US has been eroded, according to recent surveys.

Despite claiming that he was his “own person,” Dutton was accused of stoking culture wars and took aim at migrants and the news media in rhetoric that resembled Trump’s.

Dutton spent weeks trying to distance himself from the tariff-tossing US leader, but it wasn’t enough to convince Australian voters that he was the right person to lead the country through this moment of global turmoil.

Result could signal new era of political stability in Australia

Saturday’s result made Albanese the first Australian prime minister to win re-election for 20 years, and could herald an end to the revolving door of leaders that has defined the nation’s politics since the turn of the millennium.

Albanese will start his second term with at least 85 seats in the 150-seat lower house – a significant majority in Australia – while the Liberal coalition currently holds just 37, according to the latest count by public broadcaster the ABC.

The country has had six different prime ministers in the last 18 years, most of whom lasted about three years in office, in line with the frequency of Australian elections. But a commanding win and healthy majority set Albanese up for another three years or even more. That potentially gives him the opportunity to shape the country’s politics in his and his party’s image in a way no leader has since the Liberals’ John Howard in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

During a time of trade turmoil, he was able to demonstrate a steady hand, striking an authoritative tone in response to Trump’s decision to impose 10% tariffs on Australia, which were later paused.

Local disaster for Dutton compounds national defeat

Dutton not only lost the national contest, but was also ousted from his own seat in the northeastern state of Queensland, in a shock defeat to Labor’s Ali France.

It was another echo of events in Canada, where Poilievre lost his longtime seat in rural Ottawa.

Dutton had held the Dickson seat for more than two decades, and had twice before seen off a challenge from France, a former journalist, world champion para-athlete and disability advocate who lost her leg in a 2011 accident.

After her victory, France paid tribute to her son Henry, who died from leukemia last year.

“My son, Henry, he wanted me to do this. He was convinced that I would win this,” France told Sky News after her win. “I thought I wouldn’t be running, because I would be caring for him. And he would say to me, ‘No, Mum, you have to do this. I know you’re going to win this this time.’ And I feel he’s been with me on this journey,” she said.

Dutton congratulated France in his concession speech Saturday, in which he also mentioned his political rival’s recent bereavement.

“I said to Ali, her son, Henry, would be incredibly proud of her tonight, and she’ll do a good job as a local member for Dickson,” Dutton said.

Cost of living and climate concerns outweighed culture wars

Australian voters put their faith in Albanese’s plans for tackling the high cost of living and climate change over Dutton’s Trump-style ideological approach, which at times did not appear to be backed by policy proposals.

Dutton called Indigenous “welcome to country” ceremonies “overdone” and said they shouldn’t be performed at sports games or military events. In 2023, Dutton successfully campaigned against the government’s referendum on the Voice proposal, which included constitutional recognition for Indigenous Australians.

He also claimed Australia takes in too many migrants, and branded the public broadcaster “hate media.”

Dutton vowed to crack down on “woke” culture and promised to end “indoctrination” in schools, before later clarifying his party didn’t have any plans to change the curriculum.

Australian voters, meanwhile, seemed more moved by cost-of-living concerns and climate change – two areas in which Dutton was seen as not having a strong enough strategy.

While Albanese was criticized for not doing enough to tame rising living costs during his first term, in the years ahead he’s promised a tax cut, cheaper medicines, lower deposits for first-time buyers and 1.2 million houses to ease the housing crisis.

Similarly, despite criticism over his approval of new coal and gas projects in his first term, Albanese reiterated his commitment to climate action, in contrast to the rolling assault inflicted by the new US administration on environment agencies and research.

All Australians know “renewable energy is an opportunity we must work together to seize for the future of our economy,” Albanese said to cheers.

“Kinder” politics prevails

As the son of a single mother who often talks about growing up on a housing estate, Albanese has long cast himself as champion for social mobility and a “kinder” form of politics.

“My mum had a hard life, and we struggled financially, but she taught me to always be positive and see the best in people when it comes to Australia’s future,” he said.

During the campaign, he frequently tried to distance himself and Dutton. Asked whether Trump had helped his campaign, by darkening the brand of strongman leaders, Albanese told the ABC on Monday that Dutton had done that by himself.

During his victory speech, Albanese shut down boos in the crowd when he mentioned he’d spoken to Dutton. “No, no,” he said to an enthusiastic crowd of Labor supporters in Sydney. “What we do in Australia is we treat people with respect,” he said to cheers.

Albanese didn’t mention Trump but alluded to his presence in campaign discussion. “We do not need to beg or borrow or copy from anywhere else. We do not seek out as inspiration overseas. We find it right here, in our values and in our people,” he said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com