Weaker prices and production

It is no secret that global trade tensions have led to weaker prices for major metals, including copper.

Prices reached a record of US$5.24 per pound towards the end of March, but quickly fell down after the tariff announcements due to fears of reduced industrial demand and global economic slowdown.

This is attributed to unsettled global markets, mainly as investors are losing confidence given the constant change in traditional trade flows.

Copper supplies are also subjected to rerouting, with approximately 100,000–150,000 tonnes redirected to the US ahead of potential tariffs.

Globally, copper smelting activity also took quite the fall. Data from geospatial intelligence company Earth-i said that inactivity capacity index rose from 3.4 percent to 14.9 percent in March.

This marks the lowest inactivity record since May 2023, with smelting activity outside China now five percent lower compared to January.

With this, Australia, among other producers, is encouraged to up its game.

“One should also keep in mind that one of the reasons Trump imposed these tariffs is to on shore, to bring manufacturing back home,” Benchmark said in a copper webinar in April. “So, it would rather see these projects in the US than in other parts of the world.”

Benchmark also believes that amid all these changes, the US is facing supply deficits for other minerals, so it may in the end need to secure from other producers such as Australia.

Import and export

US and Australian copper may not necessarily have a direct cause-and-effect relationship, but the imposition of tariffs poses major threats to Australia’s import and export relationships with other countries.

China, among the countries largely impacted by the tariffs, is a significant importer of Australian copper. Investors and companies have already seen reduced or inconsistent demand, which could lead to a slowdown in the country’s economy.

Should this slowdown result in a lesser need for raw materials, then Australian miners would potentially deal with unexpected oversupply.

Still, economists and advisors say that Australia must remain competitive.

“I can already feel the push for protective tariffs to keep out foreign products competing with domestic production. I’m very, very wary of something like that because I find that Australia has done well by having very low trade barriers,” added Dr. French of UNSW.

“We don’t want to go back to the experience from earlier decades where local manufacturing was very highly protected and very uncompetitive … “So that’s why I think maintaining competitiveness is important, and I would strongly caution against trying to enact any sort of protective tariffs to isolate the domestic market for these products.”

Copper in the next years

While copper and other essential minerals for decarbonisation are facing uncertainties at the present, the fact that they will be needed in the future has not changed.

In the Benchmark webinar, it was mentioned that a strong outlook for copper demand is highly possible over the long run.

“We’re folding in the energy transition, route to 2030, 2040 and 2050. I don’t think copper is going anywhere,” said Benchmark Head of Strategic Initiatives Mike Finch.

The Minerals Council of Australia, in a commentary on the imposition of tariffs, said that Trump’s decision is “a stark reminder of the disruptive consequences that can arise from trade volatility and economic uncertainty.”

“(While) details remain unclear, this development further reinforces the need for Australia to get the economic fundamentals right to protect and enhance our global competitiveness; to better position ourselves in times of economic uncertainty,” the council wrote.

“It also underscores the need for Australia to accelerate free trade deals and secure supply chain partnerships with like-minded economies.”

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$84,833.31 and is up 1.2 percent in 24 hours. The day’s range has seen a low of US$84,050.56 and a high of US$85,667.65.

Bitcoin performance, April 11, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

The recovery appears to be related to last week’s announcement of partial import tariff relief, but the uncertainty of ongoing US-China trade tensions kept Bitcoin from rallying above US$86,000.

Ethereum (ETH) is priced at US$1,635.11, a 3.1 percent increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday low of US$1,624.37 and a high of US$1,677.74.

Altcoin price update

• Solana (SOL) is currently valued at US$131.19, up 2.4 percent over the past 24 hours. SOL experienced a low of US$128.75 and a high of US$134.05 on Monday.

• XRP is trading at US$2.15, reflecting a 1.8 percent decrease over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded an intraday low of US$2.11 and a high of US$2.18.

• Sui (SUI) is priced at US$2.21, showing a decreaseof 0.9 percent over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily low of US$2.20 and a high of US$2.33.

• Cardano (ADA) is trading at US$0.6397, trading flat over 24 hours. Its lowest price on Monday was US$0.6314, with a high of US$0.6548.

Crypto news to know

Kraken expands into stock and ETF trading

Kraken announced on Monday that it will expand beyond cryptocurrencies to offer eligible users trade services for over 11,000 US-listed stocks and exchange-traded funds through Kraken Securities.

Users will be able to trade traditional assets and cryptocurrencies within a single Kraken account. The service is available to select states as part of a phased rollout, with plans to expand to all states and the UK, Europe and Australia.

Euro-sacked stablecoin EURC sees growth amidst strengthening Euro

Circle’s Euro-backed stablecoin, EURC, is experiencing growth amidst a strengthening Euro, its market cap growing from around $83 million at the beginning of 2025 to $204 million at the time of writing.

The euro has been rallying while the dollar falls amidst escalating trade tensions between the US and the rest of the world. Obchakevich Research founder Alex Obchakevich expects Euro Coin will continue to grow even as nations reach a trade deal that he projects will stabilize the Euro at around $1.11.

“I predict EURC to grow to 400 million euros by the end of this year. This will be further impacted by MiCa regulatory support and economic challenges,” he said.

MANTRA (OM) token price collapse and aftermath

Following a dramatic price collapse in the MANTRA (OM) token on Sunday (April 13) that wiped out billions of dollars in market cap, CEO John Mullin spoke in a now-deleted AMA thread hosted by Cointelegraph on X.

During the Monday discussion, Mullin denied accusations of insider selling or “rug pulling,” saying the plunge occurred after exchanges closed positions without notice.

On-chain data revealed that around US$227 million worth of OM was deposited from 17 wallets, with two linked to strategic investor Laser Digital. Arkham data revealed those wallets moved millions of OM to OKX and Binance in the days leading up to the collapse.

“The Mantra association, our key investors, our advisers — no one has sold, and we are going to categorically deny and also provide verifiable proof onchain proof that this is the case,” Mullin stated in the AMA, adding that he “(doesn’t) know who those wallets belong to.”

Mantra is up 10.8 percent to US$0.65 at the time of writing, far below its April 9 price of US$6.76.

Strategy buys US$285 million in BTC amid volatility

Michael Saylor’s firm, Strategy, capitalized on sharp equity market swings last week, purchasing 3,459 more BTC valued at US$285.8 million between April 7 to 13.

The buy was funded through its at-the-market equity offering as shares fluctuated from -11 percent to +25 percent, demonstrating the firm’s commitment to BTC accumulation even during periods of financial instability. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings now total around US$45 billion, representing about 2.5 percent of the total BTC supply.

The firm also disclosed a forthcoming US$5.9 billion unrealized loss due to new accounting rules requiring market-based valuations for digital assets. Even so, Strategy remains on track with its plan to raise US$42 billion through 2027 for continuous Bitcoin acquisitions, reinforcing its identity as a long-term Bitcoin maximalist corporate play.

Metaplanet now 9th largest public Bitcoin holder

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has acquired 319 BTC at an average price of US$83,147, bringing its total treasury to 4,525 BTC. That makes it the ninth largest publicly traded Bitcoin holding company.

This acquisition is part of its broader treasury strategy to build shareholder value through Bitcoin accumulation, initiated in December 2024. The company now has a cost basis of US$408.1 million and evaluates its Bitcoin performance using Bitcoin yield, which hit 95.6 percent in the first quarter of 2025.

Backed by sophisticated financial engineering such as bond issuances and stock acquisition rights, Metaplanet has executed over 41 percent of its “210 million plan,” demonstrating significant momentum.

The firm’s bold approach also reflects Japan’s evolving stance toward crypto as a mainstream asset class and could influence similar treasury strategies in Asia.

CeFi lending drops from 2021 peak, DeFi borrowing soars

The crypto lending market remains well below its former highs, down from US$64.4 billion in 2021 to US$36.5 billion at the close of 2024, according to a new report by Galaxy Digital.

This contraction is largely due to the collapse of major centralized finance (CeFi) lenders like Genesis, BlockFi, Celsius, and Voyager, which together lost 82 percent of their lending capacity during the bear market.

However, decentralized finance (DeFi) has made a stunning recovery, with open borrows jumping from US$1.8 billion in late 2022 to US$19.1 billion across 20 platforms and 12 blockchains — a 959 percent increase. Galaxy attributes this to DeFi’s permissionless nature, transparency, and its resilience during market turmoil that crushed CeFi players.

Today, Tether, Galaxy, and Ledn dominate the surviving CeFi space, accounting for nearly 89 percent of its total activity, while DeFi’s growth hints at a larger shift toward decentralized, non-custodial financial infrastructure in the post-crash era.

Google to enforce MiCA rules on crypto ads

Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) will begin enforcing stricter ad policies across 27 European countries beginning on April 23, requiring all crypto advertisers to comply with the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation or be licensed under the Crypto Asset Service Provider framework.

All crypto exchanges and wallet providers advertising on Google must now also be certified by Google, and meet additional national-level legal obligations, further tightening the regulatory net on digital asset marketing.

This marks a significant shift in how crypto services are promoted in the EU and could weed out illicit players while boosting trust in licensed entities. Noncompliance will first trigger a warning before eventual account suspensions, giving advertisers a brief grace period to align with the rules.

History of candlestick patterns

Candlestick charting traces its origins to 18th century Japan, where Munehisa Homma, a wealthy rice trader from Sakata, developed a system to analyze price movements in the rice futures market.

Homma meticulously recorded price fluctuations and identified patterns that reflected market sentiment, realizing that emotions such as fear and greed played a crucial role in price action. His insights allowed him to anticipate market trends, reportedly leading to immense trading success.

Homma’s techniques evolved into a structured system known as the Sakata Rules, which later laid the foundation for modern candlestick patterns. These rules emphasized the importance of recognizing repetitive price formations and interpreting their psychological implications.

Homma’s pioneering work made him legendary in Japan’s trading circles, with some historical accounts claiming he executed 100 consecutive winning trades using his methodology.

Candlestick charts remained largely unknown outside Japan until the late 20th century, where Steve Nison, an American technical analyst, introduced candlestick charting to Western financial markets in the 1980s.

Through extensive research, Nison translated and refined Japanese candlestick techniques, integrating them into modern technical analysis. His 1991 book, Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, became a seminal work, widely regarded as the definitive guide on the subject.

Key candlestick patterns you need to know

Candlestick patterns provide traders with crucial insights into market sentiment, signaling potential reversals, continuations, or periods of indecision. These patterns are categorized into three main types:

1. Bullish patterns indicating possible uptrends
2. Bearish patterns signaling potential downtrends
3. Neutral patterns suggesting indecision or continuation

Bullish patterns

Bullish candlestick patterns typically appear after a downtrend, signaling a potential shift in momentum as buying pressure increases. These patterns suggest that buyers are stepping in and that a reversal to the upside may be underway.

Bullish engulfing

Bullish engulfing candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

• Bullish engulfing: A two-candle pattern where a small bearish candle is followed by a larger bullish candle that completely engulfs the previous day’s body. This formation suggests a strong shift in momentum, as buying pressure overwhelms selling pressure. The larger the engulfing candle, the more powerful the signal.

Hammer

Hammer candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

• Hammer: A single candlestick with a small body near the top of its range and a long lower shadow. It appears after a downtrend and signals that despite initial selling pressure, buyers regained control and pushed prices back up. A hammer is more reliable when it forms near a significant support level.

Inverted hammer

Inverted hammer candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

• Inverted hammer: Similar to the hammer, but with a small body at the lower end of the range and a long upper shadow. This pattern suggests that buyers attempted to push prices higher after a decline, potentially signaling a reversal. It requires confirmation from the next candle closing higher.

Morning star

Morning star candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

• Morning star: A three-candle formation that signifies a trend reversal. It starts with a long bearish candle, followed by a small-bodied candle (which may be bullish or bearish) that gaps down, and finally, a strong bullish candle that closes well into the first candle’s body. This pattern suggests that bearish momentum is weakening and buyers are taking control.

Three white soldiers

Three white soldiers candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

• Three white soldiers: A powerful bullish pattern made up of three consecutive long bullish candles with small or no wicks. Each candle opens within the previous candle’s body and closes progressively higher. This pattern suggests a strong and sustained uptrend, particularly when accompanied by high volume.

Bearish patterns

Bearish candlestick patterns appear after an uptrend, signaling a potential reversal as selling pressure increases. These formations suggest that buyers are losing momentum, and a downward move may be imminent.

Bearish engulfing

Bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

• Bearish engulfing: The opposite of the bullish engulfing pattern, this formation occurs when a small bullish candle is followed by a larger bearish candle that completely engulfs the previous day’s body. This suggests a shift from buying to selling pressure, often signaling the start of a downtrend.

Shooting star

Shooting star candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

• Shooting star: The shooting star is a single candle with a small body near the lower end of the trading range and a long upper shadow. It indicates that buyers pushed prices higher, but strong selling pressure forced prices back down, making it a potential reversal signal.

Hanging man

Hanging man candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

• Hanging man: Resembling the hammer, the hanging man appears at the top of an uptrend instead of the bottom. It has a small body and a long lower shadow, signaling that selling pressure is starting to emerge. A confirmation from the next candle closing lower strengthens this bearish signal.

Evening star

Evening star candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

• Evening star: The bearish counterpart to the morning star, this three-candle pattern starts with a strong bullish candle, followed by a small-bodied candle that gaps up, and then a long bearish candle that closes well into the first candle’s body. This signals a transition from bullish to bearish momentum.

Three black crows

Three black crows candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

• Three black crows: This pattern consists of three consecutive long bearish candles with small wicks, each opening within the previous candle’s body and closing progressively lower. It signals strong selling pressure and the likelihood of a continued downtrend.

Neutral patterns

Neutral candlestick patterns signal market indecision and can lead to either a continuation of the existing trend or a reversal. Traders should consider additional indicators or confirmation signals before acting on these patterns.

Doji

Doji candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

• Doji: A candlestick where the opening and closing prices are nearly identical, resulting in a small or nonexistent body. Doji patterns indicate market indecision and can appear in various forms:

• Standard doji: Signals uncertainty, often preceding a breakout or reversal.

• Gravestone doji: A bearish signal, with a long upper shadow and no lower shadow, indicating rejection at higher prices.

• Dragonfly doji: A bullish signal, with a long lower shadow and no upper shadow, showing strong buying interest.

Spinning top

Spinning top candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

• Spinning top: Featuring a small body with long upper and lower shadows, the spinning top reflects a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, often signaling consolidation or a possible trend reversal.

Combining candlestick patterns with indicators

While candlestick patterns provide valuable insights into market sentiment, relying on them alone can lead to false signals, especially in a volatile market like Bitcoin.

To increase accuracy, traders often combine these patterns with technical indicators that help confirm trends, momentum and potential reversals. Below are some of the most effective indicators to use alongside candlestick patterns:

1. Moving averages — Moving averages smooth out price fluctuations and help traders identify the prevailing trend. They can also act as dynamic support and resistance levels.

Application: If a bullish candlestick pattern (eg., bullish engulfing, morning star) appears while Bitcoin’s price is above a key moving average (such as the 50 day or 200 day MA), this strengthens the signal that an uptrend may continue.

Conversely, if a bearish candlestick pattern (eg., bearish engulfing, shooting star) forms below a moving average, it increases the likelihood of further downside.

1. Relative Strength Index (RSI) — RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price movements on a scale of zero to 100. A reading above 70 suggests overbought conditions (potential reversal or pullback), while a reading below 30 suggests oversold conditions (potential buying opportunity).

Application: A bullish candlestick pattern forming when RSI is below 30 strengthens the case for a trend reversal (eg., a Hammer appearing in oversold conditions could indicate a strong buying opportunity).

A bearish candlestick pattern forming when RSI is above 70 suggests that the price may be primed for a pullback (eg., a Shooting Star forming in overbought conditions signals potential downside).

1. Volume analysis – Volume represents the number of trades executed and provides insight into the strength behind price movements. A price move with high volume is more significant than one with low volume.

Application: If a bullish reversal pattern (eg., morning star) appears with high volume, it confirms strong buyer interest and increases the likelihood of a sustained uptrend.

If a bearish reversal pattern (eg., bearish engulfing) forms with high volume, it signals aggressive selling pressure and strengthens the bearish outlook.

Common mistakes to avoid

While candlestick patterns are valuable tools, it is very easy to misuse them—leading to unnecessary losses. Understanding common pitfalls can help investors refine their strategies and improve decision making.

1. Trading candlestick patterns without confirmation
   Many traders see a single candlestick pattern, such as a Bullish Engulfing or Shooting Star, and immediately enter a trade without waiting for additional confirmation. This leads to false signals and premature decisions.

How to avoid it: Always combine candlestick patterns with other indicators (eg., RSI, moving averages, volume analysis). Furthermore, look for follow-through price action — a second candle that confirms the expected move.

1. Ignoring the importance of timeframes
   A common trap is assuming that a candlestick pattern on a 5 minute chart carries the same weight as one on a daily or weekly chart. Shorter timeframes are more prone to noise and false signals.

How to avoid it: Prioritize patterns on higher timeframes (daily, weekly) for more reliable signals. If trading lower timeframes (eg. 15 minute chart), ensure the pattern aligns with the higher timeframe trend.

1. Overtrading and chasing every pattern
   Some traders try to trade every candlestick pattern they see, leading to excessive trades, emotional decision making and mounting losses. Overtrading often results from fear of missing out or lack of patience

How to avoid it: Stick to high-probability setups where multiple factors confirm the trade. Wait for patterns to form at key levels, not in random price areas. Set clear entry and exit rules instead of reacting impulsively.

1. Failing to adapt to market conditions
   Candlestick patterns do not work the same way in all market environments. Some traders blindly follow textbook interpretations without considering other factors. Candlestick patterns are purely technical, but the market is heavily influenced by fundamental news. Ignoring events like ETF approvals, regulatory shifts, or major financial institution involvement can lead to poor trading decisions.

How to avoid it: Always check news before trading, especially for large moves. Avoid trading right before or after high-impact events, as volatility can distort patterns. Use candlestick analysis in combination with fundamental trends.

Final thoughts

Candlestick patterns have stood the test of time, but while these patterns offer valuable insights into market sentiment, they are not foolproof signals. Successful trading is a holistic skill — it means understanding that context, confirmation and discipline are just as important as recognizing the patterns themselves.

By combining these patterns with other essential factors and indicators, traders can refine their strategies and make more informed decisions.

Blue diamond steals spotlight in US$100 million Sotheby’s exhibit in Abu Dhabi

On the international front, a 10 carat rare blue diamond from South Africa has emerged as the crown jewel of Sotheby’s latest diamond exhibition in Abu Dhabi.

Part of an eight stone showcase valued at over US$100 million, the blue diamond is expected to fetch around US$20 million when it goes to auction in May.

Sotheby’s selected the UAE capital for the exhibit due to the region’s increasing appetite for high-end diamonds. “We have great optimism about the region,” said Quig Bruning, the company’s head of jewels in North America, Europe, and the Middle East.

“We feel very strongly that this is the kind of place where you have both traders and collectors of diamonds of this importance and of this rarity.”

Petra Diamonds delays Cullinan tender as US tariff shockwaves hit market

Meanwhile, Petra Diamonds (LSE:PDL,OTCPink:PDLMF) announced last week that it would delay the sale of gems from its Cullinan mine due to uncertainty over new US tariffs on imports — including diamonds.

The delay comes amid heightened concerns that the tariffs, introduced last week, could disrupt global diamond flows and further depress an already sluggish market.

Petra had already sold 176,000 carats from its Finsch and Williamson mines for US$18 million in its fifth tender of the year — a modest 9 percent price increase over the previous round.

However, overall tender revenue is down 25 percent year-on-year, totaling $103 million so far in 2025, compared to US$138 million during the same period in 2024. Shares of Petra fell 6.1 percent following the announcement.

The Cullinan Mine, famously the source of the largest gem-quality diamond ever discovered, has recently struggled to yield high-quality stones, further complicating Petra’s recovery efforts amid market volatility and its ongoing restructuring plan.

The diamond market isn’t the only luxury segment to be impacted by geopolitical trade tensions.

On April 10, Prada Group (HKEX:1913) which owns luxury brand Prada, announced its acquisition of the Versace brand from Capri Holdings (NYSE:CPRI) for US$1.38 billion, marking a significant consolidation in the luxury fashion industry.

The deal reunites two iconic Italian brands and positions Prada to better compete with industry leaders like LVMH (OTC Pink:LVMHF,EPA:MC) and Kering (EPA:SSKEG). Capri Holdings, which acquired Versace for US$2.1 billion in 2018, faced challenges with the brand’s performance, including a 15 percent decline in revenue in late 2024. The sale allows Capri to refocus on its core brand, Michael Kors, and address financial pressures following a blocked merger with Tapestry (NYSE:TPR) in 2023.

According to a January report from McKinsey, The luxury goods sector faces a challenging outlook in 2025, with global growth projected to slow to between 1 percent and 3 percent annually through 2027.

This deceleration follows a period where price increases accounted for over 80 percent of growth from 2019 to 2023, a strategy that has now reached its limit as aspirational consumers become more price sensitive.