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April 6, 2025

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The previous week was short; the Indian markets traded for four days owing to one trading holiday on account of Ramadan Id. However, while staying largely bearish, the markets weathered the storm inflicted by the US announcing reciprocal tariffs on almost everyone and kicking off a serious trade war. The Indian markets stayed extremely resilient but ended the week on a negative note. The Index moved in the range of 707.70 points over the past four sessions. The volatility also rose; the India VIX surged 8.16% on a weekly basis to 13.76. The Indian benchmark Index closed with a net weekly loss of 614.90 points (-2.61%).

The equity markets across the world are likely to stay under pressure and in a bit of turmoil. However, the Indian markets are likely to remain relatively resilient. We live in an interconnected world; it is not surprising if we see the markets staying under pressure along with the other equity markets. However, what is expected to stand out will be the Indian market’s expected relative outperformance. This was evident over the previous week as while the Nifty and Nifty 500 lost 2.61% and 2.50%, the US key indices SPX, Nasdaq, and the Dow lost 9.08%, 10.02%, and 7.86%, respectively. While India’s VIX spiked just over 8%, the CBOE VIX has spiked 109.14% on a weekly basis. While the Indian markets may also show jitters and stay under pressure, this relative outperformance is likely to persist.

The coming week is again short, with Thursday being a trading holiday for Shri Mahavir Jayanti. The markets are expected to start lower on Monday following global weakness. Over the coming week, we can expect the levels of 23050 and 23300 to act as potential resistance points. Importantly, the supports are expected to come in at 22600 and 22450.

The weekly RSI is at 44.93; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish; however, the sharply narrowing Histogram hints at a likely positive crossover in the future. A strong black-bodied candle showed the sustained downward pressure on the markets.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that after rebounding off the 100-week MA, the Nifty staged a strong rally that halted at the 50-week MA. This MA is placed at 23849; this was the support that the Index had violated on its way down, and now acts as a resistance. The previous week also saw the Nifty slipping below the 20-week MA positioned at 23412. While the Index stays in a secondary trend, it remains in a large but well-defined trading range that is created between 23400 on the upper side and 22100 on the lower side.

Despite being short, the coming week is expected to see a wider trading range and some more volatility staying ingrained in it. It is strongly recommended that while the valuations look tempting enough to initiate buying, all fresh buying should be done in a staggered manner. One must not go out and buy everything all at once, but one should do it in a staggered way while allowing the prices to stabilize and indicate a potential reversal point. Leveraged positions must be kept at modest levels, and fresh purchases must be kept limited to the places where there is emerging relative strength. A cautious approach is advised for the coming week.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty Bank and Financial Services indices are rolling strongly inside the leading quadrant. Besides these two indices, the Nifty Commodities, Metal, Infrastructure, and Services Sector Indices are also inside the leading quadrant.

The Nifty Pharma Index is the only one inside the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty IT Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant and is languishing inside that quadrant along with the Nifty Midcap 100 index. The Nifty Realty and the Media Index are also in the lagging quadrant; however, they are improving relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty PSE and Energy Indices are inside the improving quadrant along with the PSU Bank index, which is seen as strongly improving its relative momentum. The FMCG, Auto, and Consumption Indexes are also inside the improving quadrant but are seen rolling towards the lagging quadrant again while giving up on their relative momentum against the broader markets.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

How low can the S&P and the Nasdaq fall? More importantly, how can an investor navigate this volatile environment?

In this eye-opening video, Mary Ellen McGonagle delves into the stock market’s fall, identifies key support levels, and compares them to past bear markets. She also discusses inverse ETFs and their past price action. Don’t miss out on these key technical points. They will help you identify when the market is getting ready to reverse.

The video was originally published on April 4, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

I am attending and speaking at the CMTA West Coast Regional Summit in San Francisco from Friday, 4/4, to Sunday, 4/6, so I don’t have enough time to write a full blog article updating the best five sectors.

So, instead, I have added the graphs and the new ranking to this article for review, and I will update the text and the positions in the portfolio on Monday.

  1. (1) Financials – (XLF)
  2. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)*
  3. (2) Energy – (XLE)*
  4. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
  5. (4) Utilities – (XLU)*
  6. (5) Healthcare – (XLV)
  7. (6) Industrials – (XLI)*
  8. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
  9. (8) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
  10. (10) Materials – (XLB)
  11. (11) Technology – (XLK)

Tech stocks led a week-long decline as US President Donald Trump’s global retaliatory tariffs were announced on Wednesday (April 2).

The announcement led to a market-wide sell-off that erased over US$6 trillion in market value and drove the Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) into a confirmed bear market.

This week’s pullback was the worst day in the stock market since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.

New developments may arise unexpectedly as this situation unfolds.

1. Agility Robotics secures US$400 million

On Tuesday (April 1), the Information reported on a US$400 million funding round led by private equity firm WP Global for humanoid robot maker Agility Robotics.

The report cites an individual who claims to have seen the term sheet, noting that the new funding will give Agility Robotics, whose CEO is former Microsoft (NASADQ:MSFT) executive Peggy Johnson, a valuation of US$1.75 billion.

Prior to the report, the company unveiled advancements to its Digit robotic system on Monday (March 31), including extended battery, more efficient power usage, autonomous docking for charging, enhanced safety features and new, robust limbs and end effectors. The company says these structural changes will allow for a wider range of grasping angles and expanded manipulation capabilities.

Digit’s target applications include warehouse automation and last-mile delivery.

2. OpenAI finalizes US$40 billion funding in record-breaking deal

OpenAI finalized a US$40 billion funding deal on Monday, closing the largest private tech deal ever recorded.

The company received US$40 billion from SoftBank (3AG1.BE) and US$10 billion from a syndicate of additional investors that included long-time major investor Microsoft. This round increased OpenAI’s valuation to US$300 billion.

OpenAI will initially receive US$10 billion, with the remainder to be paid out by the end of the year. Anonymous sources for CNBC note that US$18 billion is reserved for the company’s US$500 billion Stargate project commitment.

The funding may also be reduced to US$30 billion if OpenAI doesn’t restructure into a for-profit entity by December 31, 2025. Restructuring would require approval by Microsoft and California’s AG.

In an announcement, OpenAI said it would deploy the funds to “push the frontiers of AI research even further, scale our compute infrastructure, and deliver increasingly powerful tools.’

Meanwhile, in a subsequently released report from Bloomberg, Japan Credit Rating Agency and S&P Global Ratings lowered their ratings for SoftBank as the company sought a bridge loan of up to US$16.5 billion to help fund its US AI investment commitments, according to sources who claim to know of early-stage discussions the company has had with lenders.

3. TikTok deal deadline extended amid negotiations

Earlier this week, the Information reported on a proposal from the Trump administration that would form a US-based TikTok subsidiary called TikTok America in an attempt to prevent a national ban of the popular social media app.

According to reports, the deal would see new US investors take a 50 percent stake in the company, licensing the algorithm from ByteDance, which would retain a 19 percent stake. Additional current investors would own about one-third.

The deal would put ByteDance in compliance with the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which came into effect in January 2025. The law states that TikTok must be divested in a way that it is no longer considered to be controlled by a foreign adversary.

However, according to a Friday (April 4) Bloomberg report, representatives for ByteDance told the administration that the deal was off until Chinese officials could negotiate tariffs — which reached as high as 54 percent on several Chinese imports — announced by the Trump administration on Wednesday.

On Friday, Trump said he would extend the deadline to reach a deal by another 75 days.

“China has always respected and protected the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises and opposed practices that violate the basic principles of the market economy and harm the legitimate interests of enterprises,” spokesperson Liu Pengyu said. “China’s opposition to the imposition of additional tariffs has always been consistent and clear.”

4. Meta reportedly making billion-dollar data center investment

An anonymous source for Bloomberg claims that Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) is the unnamed company named in a previously reported US$837 million deal to develop a data center in Wisconsin.

According to the source, Meta will invest up to US$1 billion to build the center in Wisconsin, which offers an incentive deal to companies meeting investment thresholds across different counties.

Meta already has data centers in Iowa and Illinois and previously announced plans to build one in Louisiana.

During the company’s fourth quarter earnings call in January, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said his company intends to invest up to US$65 billion in AI infrastructure this year.

5. Microsoft announces personalized Copilot features

During an event commemorating Microsoft’s 50th anniversary, the company announced upcoming changes to its Copilot digital assistant that will allow users to tailor it to their own needs.

“You can now let Copilot live up to its name,” Mustafa Suleyman, who leads Microsoft’s consumer AI work, said during the event, which was held at its headquarters in Redmond, Washington.

Microsoft says users will have the ability to choose information Copilot can retain, such as preferences or past life events. Copilot will then be able to recall that information in future conversations. Users also have the option to opt out of personalization. The new features will roll out in the coming months.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Millennials will soon have their first video-gamer saint when Carlo Acutis is canonized later this month, but auctioning off relics purported to be tied to “God’s influencer” online is a no-go, according to an Italian archbishop.

The statement comes after an anonymous vendor tried to sell strands of Acutis’ hair online. Bids reached $2,200 before the lot was removed after Archbishop Domenico Sorrentino – who leads the diocese of Assisi where Acutis’ body is being kept and where the supposed relics were being auctioned off – called the police.

Relics, from strands of hair to bone fragments, have long been important devotional items for the Catholic faithful, and the Church encourages praying in front of relics of saints and saints-to-be, but canon law prohibits their sale, according to Sorrentino.

They can be given away by their owner or by bishops, while significant relics, such as hearts and organs, cannot be given away without permission from the Vatican. But this can never be for financial compensation, Sorrentino said in a video posted on the diocese website.

“After we verified the auction on the internet, we decided to file a complaint. What can the idol of money lead to… I fear that Satan has a hand in it,” he said.

Sorrentino filed a complaint with the police in Perugia, which is investigating the sale of the purported relics. “We have asked for their seizure,” Sorrentino said on the diocese website. “We do not know whether the relics are real or false, but even if it were all invented, if there was deception, we would be in the presence of not only a scam, but also an insult to religious sentiment.”

“The business of relics trading is prevalent, Sorrentino added. “On the internet there is a market of relics that concern various saints, such as our Francis (of Assisi), with a price list. Something (that is) impossible to accept,” he said.

Acutis, who died of leukemia in 2006 at the age of 15, is widely recognized as a model of Christian life for young believers and who Sorrentino said will be a sort of “patron saint of the internet” once he is canonized.

That ceremony will take place in St. Peter’s Square in Vatican City on April 27.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Erik Prince, founder of the controversial security contractor formerly known as Blackwater, joined in law enforcement operations on Saturday in Guayaquil, one of Ecuador’s most violent cities, according to local officials.

The operations saw 10 houses raided and 40 people detained, Ecuador’s Interior Minister John Reimberg said.

“Since early this morning, the security block together with the American Erik Prince, a security expert, and the Ministers of Defense, Gian Carlo Loffredo and the Minister of the Interior, John Reimberg, were deployed in territory in Guayaquil, especially in the suburbs, attacking criminals and outlining strategies to strengthen the great actions of our law enforcement forces in the field of operations,” Ecuador’s Defense Ministry posted on X Saturday morning.

Prince also said in a video posted by Ecuador’s Defense Ministry that he was in the country “providing the law enforcement and the military the tools and the tactics to effectively combat the narco-gangs.”

The aim, Prince continued, is to “put the narcos on their back heels and make them truly afraid of being caught.”

His visit to the South American nation comes weeks after Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa announced a “strategic alliance” with Prince to fight organized crime.

‘A historic chapter for security’ in Ecuador

Ecuador’s Defense Ministry called Prince’s participation on Saturday a “historic chapter for security” for the nation.

The country’s Defense Minister Gian Carlo Loffredo said Prince and his team are currently providing training and advice to Ecuador’s security forces – but added that their scope of action could be expanded. “They may not be limited to just those actions,” Loffredo said.

Prince has been in the country for a “few days,” and work is ongoing to develop a new plan to combat Ecuador’s gangs, he also said.

In recent years, Ecuador – which is sandwiched between Colombia and Peru, top producers of cocaine – has become caught up in the drug trade and the violence that always follows it. Its efficient transport and export system has been used by cartels to move and ship their goods overseas — the bricks of cocaine hidden in boxes of bananas and other goods that then head to the United States, Europe and the rest of the world.

Noboa’s efforts however will be heavily dependent on next week’s presidential runoff vote. He’s set off to face leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez, who has positioned herself as equally tough on crime but opposes the presence of any foreign force in the country.

In the same video posted by the defense ministry, Prince called on Ecuadorians to vote for Noboa, warning that otherwise Ecuador risked “looking just like Venezuela, a narco-state with massive drug processing with all the criminality and socialism and despair that comes with that.”

“I hope Ecuador chooses law and order and we are here to help to combat the gangs and to provide the tools for the government to restore law and order, peace and prosperity,” he added.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The Canadian government is warning citizens visiting the United States that US border officials have the authority to search travelers’ electronic devices – including phones, laptops, and tablets – without providing a reason.

In a revised travel advisory posted online, it urges Canadians to “expect scrutiny” when crossing the border and warns that refusing to comply involves risks including device seizure, travel delays, or the denial of entry for non-US citizens.

Under US law, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents may demand passwords to unlock devices during inspections. Travelers who refuse the demand risk having their electronics confiscated and may face long delays.

The advisory recommends placing devices in airplane mode before crossing to prevent unintended downloads of remote files, which could complicate screenings.

The move follows recent incidents involving such searches. Last month, Dr. Rasha Alawieh, a Lebanese assistant professor and physician at Brown University, was deported to Lebanon after US agents at Boston Logan International Airport discovered deleted photos of the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on her phone.

“In explaining why these multiple photos were deleted by her one to two days before she arrived at Logan Airport, Dr. Alawieh stated that she did not want to give authorities the perception that she supports Hezbollah and the Ayatollah politically or militarily,” the filing reads, per WCVB.

While US authorities maintain that device searches are critical for national security, civil liberties groups have long criticized the practice as invasive.

The US Supreme Court has upheld the authority of border agents to conduct warrantless device searches, citing the “border search exception” to the Fourth Amendment.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The dramatic arrest of the Philippines’ controversial former president in March sent shock waves through much of the world – and cast a renewed spotlight on the other leaders wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who was whisked off to the Netherlands to answer for alleged crimes against humanity, had long been under scrutiny over a brutal anti-drugs crackdown. But even after years of on-and-off investigations, during which Duterte taunted the court and told it to “hurry up,” his detention came as a surprise to many experts.

“We have had other high-ranking individuals brought before the court,” including several former presidents of African nations, said Leila Sadat, professor of international criminal law at the Washington University School of Law and the former special adviser on crimes against humanity to the ICC prosecutor.

But in many of those cases, the prosecuted leaders were either summoned to court or arrested after a warrant was publicly issued – a stark contrast to Duterte’s case, where the warrant was issued secretly and the former leader swiftly apprehended within several head-spinning hours.

“It’s the first time we’ve seen this at the ICC,” Sadat said – though similar cases have been seen in other international tribunals, she added.

Duterte, now 80, oversaw a ferocious crackdown on alleged drug pushers in the Philippines that killed more than 6,000 people, based on police data. Independent monitors believe the number of extrajudicial killings could be much higher.

His arrest is significant, partly because it could set a precedent for future trials of other leaders wanted by the court, however unlikely, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

That’s not to say their turn could be imminent, far from it – many political factors can make it extremely difficult to execute an arrest warrant.

Case in point: Netanyahu on Sunday was wrapping up a visit to Hungary, in defiance of the ICC warrant. As a signatory to the Rome Statute, Hungary is obligated to arrest anyone wanted by the ICC. Instead, its Prime Minister Viktor Orban welcomed Netanyahu with open arms, and Budapest announced it would begin the process of leaving the court.

But Duterte’s case has shown that arrest is possible – especially once a leader is out of office – and that the threat against those wanted leaders is not only theoretical.

“The precedent set here – maybe not now, but in future generations – will allow us to visualize what justice looks like for the highest-ranking leaders of countries that commit these kinds of crimes,” said Gregory Gordon, a professor of international criminal law at the Peking University School of Transnational Law in Shenzhen, China.

“There’s always that initial breakthrough that has to happen.”

Putin and the Ukraine war

Located in The Hague in the Netherlands, the ICC investigates and prosecutes individuals for war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and crimes of aggression against the territory of its member states, of which there are 125.

The court cannot carry out arrests on its own and relies on the cooperation of national governments to execute warrants – which often rests on domestic politics and political will.

ICC member countries include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, Australia, Brazil and all other members of the European Union – at least until Hungary makes its promised exit.

In March 2023, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin and Russian official Maria Lvova-Belova over an alleged scheme to deport Ukrainian children to Russia.

The charges were the first to be formally lodged by the ICC against Russian officials since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.

Russia – like the United States, Israel, China and Ukraine – is not a member of the ICC. The court does not have its own police force and does not conduct trials in absentia – and therefore the likelihood of any Russian official appearing before it is very low, analysts said.

Any charged Russian officials would either have to be handed over by Moscow, or arrested outside of Russia, said Sadat, the Washington University professor.

“The warrant against Vladimir Putin himself is obviously the most challenging because he’s a head of state in power, and he’s not going to leave Russia unless he’s pretty sure he’s going to have immunity wherever he goes,” she said. “But his choices are now restricted, and he’s been labeled, for better or worse, a war criminal.”

Gordon agreed, saying the chances of Putin being arrested are slim, given his “firm grip on power” and layers of protection – unless Russia’s domestic political situation changes enough to leave him vulnerable. After all, it was a dramatic change in the Philippines’ domestic politics that ultimately did for Duterte.

Even when Putin leaves Russia, many countries are unwilling to arrest him. Last year, the Russian leader traveled to Mongolia without facing any repercussions – despite the East Asian country being a member of the ICC.

“Obviously the pressure on a small country like Mongolia is pretty substantial,” Sadat said.

But she pointed to other times the warrant had seemed to restrict Putin’s movements; in 2023, the Russian leader attended a BRICS summit in ICC signatory South Africa via video call, sparing the host country a potential diplomatic quandary.

“I think the warrants themselves are powerful. At the same time, we do have to see a significant number of warrants actually get executed, or the warrants become sort of symbols of a court that can’t arrest its accused,” she said.

“That’s why (Duterte’s arrest) is a really exciting moment for the court, because it shows it can engage in interstate cooperation.”

Netanyahu, Hamas and the Gaza war

The ICC issued its warrant for Netanyahu in November 2024 – also seeking the arrest of former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant – citing allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.

A senior Hamas official is also wanted by the ICC on allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel. Other leaders of the militant group sought by the court for prosecution were killed by Israel.

The historic warrants made Netanyahu the first Israeli leader summoned by an international court for alleged actions against Palestinians in the more than seven-decade-long Arab-Israeli conflict.

The warrants were also denounced across the Israeli political spectrum as unconscionable, with Netanyahu’s own office labeling the move “antisemitic.” Several Israeli allies – including the United States – strongly criticized the ICC warrant.

Israel is not a member of the ICC and does not recognize the ICC’s jurisdiction, nor does it honor international warrants issued by the court, and likely wouldn’t turn over Israeli citizens for prosecution. In addition, the ICC only steps in when a country’s own government is unwilling or unable to prosecute cases.

But unlike Russia, it is a functioning democracy, with a long history of peaceful transitions between elected governments. That makes Netanyahu’s future political security more tenuous than Putin’s, and more comparable to the Duterte situation, where a shift in government once the Philippine leader was out of office ultimately led to his downfall.

The Israeli prime minister is already contending with a number of domestic legal troubles unrelated to the Gaza war, including a long-running corruption trial.

Israel is also deeply politically divided, with many citizens furious at the Netanyahu government and his far-right cabinet allies.

According to Gordon, it is at least “conceivable” that Netanyahu could one day face arrest in Israel for alleged crimes related to Israel’s actions in Gaza – though that still doesn’t mean the ICC warrant would be enforced.

Then there’s the fact that several powerful nations have opted not to enforce the ICC’s warrants while others have openly rejected them – further undermining the court’s authority.

France, for instance, had fervently supported the ICC’s warrant for Putin – but it shifted its stance after the court sought Netanyahu’s arrest, arguing that as Israel was not an ICC member, its prime minister should be immune from prosecution. Other European nations have also indicated they would be unwilling to enforce the Israeli warrants.

But critics say the responses suggest two sets of rules: one for the West’s traditional allies, and another for its foes.

The trouble with international prosecutions

The ICC has a long list of outstanding arrest warrants, including for former dictator Omar al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for three decades before being deposed in 2019. Currently imprisoned in Sudan, Bashir faces charges of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur.

A disproportionate number of ICC prosecutions have been against African leaders, warlords and militia members – including former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and the East African country’s current leader William Ruto, whose case was abandoned by the court partly due to “witness interference and political meddling.”

The ICC’s past focus on Africa is partly rooted in its constitution, said Sadat in Washington. The court can only exercise jurisdiction in crimes committed on or after its creation on July 1, 2002. At the time, major wars that killed millions were raging across Africa, from Darfur to the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Additionally, many African nations self-referred their cases to the ICC, Sadat added – meaning they asked the international court to investigate and granted it jurisdiction.

“With time, the prosecutor’s office started staffing up, developing more expertise, taking on additional situations … now the court is moving into other situations,” Sadat said.

But, she added, it’s difficult to prosecute alleged crimes while conflicts are ongoing and those accused remain in positions of power.

For years, the ICC has faced criticism for slow trials and its low conviction rate. From 60 arrest warrants issued since the court was created, 31 suspects remain at large. Only 11 defendants have ever been convicted – all African war criminals.

Sadat pointed to Syria, saying that for years, the ICC couldn’t “figure out a way to get jurisdiction” to investigate alleged war crimes during the country’s civil war – until former dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime was toppled in December. Since then, the new interim government has invited the court to visit the country and collect the evidence needed for prosecution.

The Philippines is another prime example of how ICC cases often become stuck until some political upheaval changes the game, said Gordon, the law professor.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had previously said the Southeast Asian country would not engage with the ICC, only for Manila to reverse its stance this week following the collapse of an alliance between the Marcos political dynasty and Duterte’s clan.

Some might argue “that this is just about politics, and that the only time the ICC will ever be able to engage in the justice process is if political processes are aligned in certain ways – and it’s just a matter of luck, not justice,” Gordon said.

Duterte’s arrest could establish a foundation for “combating the culture of impunity and assuring accountability for state leaders who commit international crimes,” Gordon said.

“That makes people in the future more comfortable with the idea that it can be done.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

For weeks, US airstrikes have pounded Houthi targets in Yemen, hitting oil refineries, airports and missile sites, with President Trump vowing to use “overwhelming force” until the US achieves its goal of stopping the Houthis from targeting shipping in the Red Sea.

The Houthis began the campaign in solidarity with Palestinians when Israel went to war in Gaza in October 2023. The group has carried out more than 100 attacks and have sunk two vessels. The result: 70% of merchant shipping that once transited the Red Sea now takes the long route around southern Africa.

The US says the campaign is working. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said that multiple Houthi leaders had been killed.

But every round of strikes provokes more defiance.

The Houthis are what one veteran Yemen-watcher calls the honey badgers of resistance, referring to the belligerent mammal known for its fearless attitude toward predators. Bitten by a cobra, they get up minutes later and attack the snake.

While as many as 80 Houthi military officers may have been killed, according to analysts, the senior echelon of its military and political leadership appears intact. So are at least some of its missile-launching sites. Since mid-March, the Houthis have launched a dozen ballistic missiles at Israel, and barrages of drones and missiles at US navy ships. While none caused major damage, the threat remains.

“We are burning through readiness — munitions, fuel, deployment time,” said one official.

Far from being cowed, the Houthis have threatened to extend their range of targets to the UAE, which backs the rival government to the Houthis in Yemen’s Civil War. Similarly, Saudi officials say the Kingdom’s air defenses are on high alert.

“The dozens of airstrikes on Yemen will not deter the Yemeni Armed Forces from fulfilling their religious, moral, and humanitarian duties,” said a Houthi spokesman earlier this week.

There’s no doubt that the US campaign has degraded the Houthis’ capabilities. Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, says he suspects the Houthis “have lost a lot of drone manufacturing capability, and there does seem to be more effective interdiction of resupply shipments coming via the sea and via Oman. So the Houthis are not comfortable.”

But history shows that the Houthis have an extraordinarily high tolerance for pain. And the Trump administration’s determination to eradicate the threat they pose may ultimately require a ground offensive.

“The Houthis are just inured to being at war with a first world military,” Knights says.“They’re ideological, but they’re also very tough tribal fighters from northern Yemen.”

The Houthis’ ability to survive is helped by an elaborate smuggling network that brings in missile parts and other equipment. Last year, hidden among cargo on one intercepted ship, air frames and fins for artillery rockets, small turbojet engines and hydrogen fuel cells were discovered, according to an investigation by Conflict Armament Research (CAR).

Such equipment could enable Houthi UAVs to carry larger payloads and to travel for far longer periods. That would “greatly extend the potential threat posed by the Houthis,” CAR reported.

The Houthis survived several offensives during the long presidency of Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, then a Saudi offensive ten years ago, followed by more recent Israeli, UK and US airstrikes.

Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst on Yemen at the International Crisis Group, says Israel and western powers lack a deep understanding of the Houthis. “Their opaque leadership and internal structure have created persistent gaps in intelligence.”

Another Yemen expert, Elisabeth Kendall, questions the endgame of the US campaign. “The Houthis have been bombed tens of thousands of times over the past decade and remain undeterred. So one is left thinking that the bombing is largely performative: let’s show the world – we’ll do it because we can.”

“They are an extremely aggressive movement. The best way to end them permanently is to overthrow them, remove them from the capital, remove them from the Red Sea coast.”

Regional diplomatic sources, as well as analysts, say that ultimately only a ground offensive can dislodge the Houthis, who currently control the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, its major port, Hodeidah, and much of northern Yemen.

Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst on Yemen at the International Crisis Group, says the US is wrong to believe that airstrikes can compel the Houthis to back down. “This approach failed under the Biden administration and is unlikely to succeed under the Trump administration.”

“Their logic is shaped by years of war; they see resilience as a form of strength and are driven to prove they are not easily deterred.”

“The only times I’ve ever seen the Houthis go to the negotiating table or compromise has been when they’ve been threatened with the realistic prospect of defeat on the ground: territorial loss, loss of control of populations and loss of access to the Red Sea coastline,” said Knights.

That briefly happened in 2017 when forces backed by the United Arab Emirates threatened Houthi access to the Red Sea, critical for the Houthis’ revenue and military supplies.

The Houthis, if anything, may actually be relishing US strikes. They are a “direct answer to the Houthi prayers to have a war with the US,” said Farea Al-Muslimi, a Yemeni research fellow at Chatham House. The group “wants to drag the US into a larger regional escalation.”

A ground offensive

The Houthis are fighting for control of Yemen against the internationally recognized government that controls part of the south and is supported mainly by the UAE. The unanswered question is whether forces loyal to that government can take the fight to the Houthis. “They’re already trained and equipped,” says Knights. But there are doubts about their unity.

Analysts do not expect the US to put any troops on the ground, beyond a handful of special forces to help direct airstrikes. The US would perhaps provide [Yemeni forces] “with a bit of logistics, certain key munitions,” Knights says.

The UAE would be “quietly supportive” as it has long supplied the Aden-based government, he adds.

The Saudi perspective is less clear. Knights believes Riyadh is apprehensive about the Houthis retaliating with long-range drones and missiles against its infrastructure. But the US has accelerated deliveries of anti-missile defenses to Saudi Arabia in recent months.

The US will have to say to Riyadh: “We are going to protect you in the same way that we protected Israel in 2024 from the two rounds of Iranian strikes,” says Knights.

Regional diplomatic sources say preparations are underway for a ground operation that would be launched from the south and east, as well as along the coast. A coordinated offensive could also involve Saudi and US naval support in an attempt to retake the port of Hodeidah.

From day one, President Trump and other US officials have linked the campaign against the Houthis to Iran. Trump said he would hold Iran responsible for “every shot” fired by Houthi rebels and it would face “dire” consequences for any attacks by the Yemeni militants.

So far it hasn’t, and it’s unclear whether Tehran can simply order the Houthis to stop firing. While very much part of Iran’s axis of resistance, the Houthis retain considerable autonomy.

Trump continues to warn Iran that it will face a massive bombing campaign if it doesn’t do a deal to limit its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. For the administration, the Houthi campaign and the “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran are two sides of the same coin.

The Iranians are treading carefully, offering moral support to their ally in Yemen. Former Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezaee hailed “the barefooted resistance forces of Yemen, who will bring advanced American warships to their knees.”

But the Iranian leadership does not want to be seen providing further military support for the Houthis right now as it tries to work out Trump’s mixture of small carrot and large stick.

The US appears ready to expand its campaign. B-2 bombers and KC-135 refuelling planes have arrived on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. That may presage strikes on hardened targets in Yemen but may equally be a signal to Iran.

The next few weeks may be a crucial test of the honey badgers’ resilience.

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