In a war dominated by the unexpected, few imagined Ukraine’s fourth year at war would so firmly question the security of all of Europe.

The most basic tenets have crumbled in this war​. Russia’s military superpower status has weakened, and the Kremlin’s inner circle overcame an uprising. Drones have altered warfare permanently, and rendered warehouses of tanks near-useless.

The United States has flipped from a moralistic benefactor to a transactional predator of Kyiv’s resources. The president of Ukraine has survived physically yet now must deal with a revisionist version of events purveyed by a White House that just over a month ago was his steadfast backer.

Flippant or spontaneous as it may have been, US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth’s remark in Brussels that the US was no longer the guarantor of European security has overturned eighty years of norms on the continent. Perhaps it was a bluff to boost European security spending, but you cannot bluff in nuclear security.

The Kremlin will have heard about the weakness in the transatlantic alliance and will be plotting accordingly. In one sentence, Hegseth turned a conflict, in which Moscow had been roundly diminished and humiliated for three years, into the chaotic re-ordering of continental security, in which Moscow may somehow dominate to its west.

With Moscow tied up in Ukraine, the security of wider Europe is for now an ethereal policy debate – an unwelcome distraction when contrasted with the relentless daily horror of the actual fight. After a week of social media tirades and tense microphone diplomacy, the gruesome battle has somehow faded into the background. Yet the acute horror is real.

A Ukrainian company commander serving inside Russia’s Kursk region said his men had to regularly dig new positions in the frozen ground as they were so accurately targeted by waves of Russian drones. “I don’t really believe in a quick end to the war or in peace in general”, he said after three years of fighting. “I am very exhausted, so is everyone here. Nothing changes for us here because of political statements.”

Oleksandr Nastenko, a battalion commander in the 475th assault brigade, said talk of peace had impacted recruitment as potential soldiers were saying “maybe it will all be over in a month or two, I’ll wait.” He said talk of Ukraine collapsing after six months without American aid was premature. “We will somehow figure it out, there is no smell of capitulation.”

Yet a form of capitulation has haunted the opening salvos of the Trump administration’s negotiating plan – Hegseth gifting Moscow with the prospect of Ukraine not joining NATO or recovering territory, before talks had apparently begun. The White House’s revisionism has become an ugly extension of their apparent race to purse a détente with the Kremlin almost at all costs.

Russia’s parallel narrative – that it was forced into action to prevent NATO expansion, and Ukraine must be de-nazified – had been overwhelmed by the sheer weight of its frailty on the frontlines and isolation. It had begun to sound silly – the wobbly excuses of the loser. Yet it has suddenly gained a new lease of life, parroted in part by the world’s most powerful man and his inner circle. It is a potent sign of how the war continues to turn basic norms upside down, that a pressing question on its third anniversary is: “Who is feeding Trump these Kremlin talking points?” Russian state television seems to think it is Russian President Vladimir Putin himself in his conversations with Trump.

Western unity has been an outlier during the war: European nations often differed in how suspicious of Russia they instinctively were, but they spoke as one since Moscow’s full invasion. Yet we now face the world’s pre-eminent power somehow convinced Russia might be a potential ally, and it is their European democratic allies who are the tyrannical problem. It is naïve for anyone in Washington to imagine a future in which Moscow drops its main financier and neighbor, China, in favor of an alliance with the US. Instead, they project frailty at a time when Beijing is actively weighing its next moves on Taiwan, and at times seems the most stable, serious power globally.

On Sunday, Zelensky said he would step aside if it meant peace for Ukraine. The distressing fact is his fraught relationship with Trump risks becoming an obstacle to almost everything. Yet the alternative is worse still. An election in wartime or handover to an anointed successor would simply increase false claims of Zelensky’s illegitimacy.

The dichotomy of the White House’s position is evident again in the inflated casualty numbers they claim is the reason the war must end (millions have not died, as Trump suggests, but possibly hundreds of thousands). This onus on preserving life is not compatible with a peace deal that weakens Ukraine’s defense and risks Russia refitting and coming back for more ground next year. More will die if peace fails or is weak.

The ugliest truth of this moment also needs saying out loud so Europe can be ready. The evidence of our eyes and ears is, as the biggest war in Europe since the forties drags into its fourth year, that Trump favors Putin.

New Zealand raised fresh concerns Monday over nearby live-fire drills conducted by Chinese warships armed with “extremely capable” weapons, an unprecedented show of firepower last week that analysts say are part of Beijing’s ongoing plan to build a blue-water navy with global reach.

A Chinese Navy formation held two live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand on Friday and Saturday, prompting passenger planes to change course mid-flight and rattling officials in both countries.

Judith Collins, the defense minister of New Zealand, said the drills were unprecedented.

“We’ve certainly never seen a task force or task group of this capability undertaking that sort of work. So it is certainly a change,” Collins told public broadcaster Radio New Zealand (RNZ) on Monday.

“The weapons they have are extremely capable. One has 112 vertical launch cells and has reported anti-ship ballistic missile range of 540 nautical miles,” she said.

Chinese state media have suggested that Western countries should get used to such military exercises in their nearby waters.

Song Zhongping, a Chinese military affairs expert, told nationalist tabloid the Global Times that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy will increasingly conduct exercises not only near China’s shores but also in international waters.

As drills like these will become more frequent, some countries should adjust to this trend, Song told the newspaper.

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Saturday that while China’s drills complied with international law, Beijing “could have given more notice.”

Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong said she sought an explanation from her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi when the two met in Johannesburg on Saturday on the sidelines of a G20 foreign ministers gathering.

China’s Defense Ministry slammed Australia on Sunday for “hyping up” the drills and making “unreasonable accusations.”

Wu Qian, a spokesperson for the ministry, said China had issued safety notices in advance and that the exercises conducted in international waters complied with international law and did not affect aviation safety.

But Collins said China’s warning was given at too short notice.

“There was a warning to civil aviation flights, that was basically a very short amount of notice, a couple of hours, as opposed to what we would consider best practice, which is 12-24 hours’ notice, so that aircraft are not having to be diverted when they’re on the wing,” she told RNZ.

Collins added that the ships were currently about 280 nautical miles east of Tasmania and had slightly changed their formations, while being closely monitored by a New Zealand navy frigate.

New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters is scheduled to visit China on Tuesday at the invitation of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday hailed Ukraine’s “absolute heroism” as he marked the third anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, and as European leaders began arriving in the capital Kyiv in a show of support for the embattled country.

“Three years of resistance. Three years of gratitude. Three years of absolute heroism of Ukrainians. I am proud of Ukraine!” Zelensky wrote on X alongside a video showing scenes from the frontline and Ukrainian civilians supporting war efforts during the grinding conflict.

“I thank everyone who defends and supports it. Everyone who works for Ukraine. And may the memory of all those who gave their lives for our state and people be eternal.”

The anniversary comes with Ukraine facing great uncertainty about its future after US President Donald Trump pivoted toward Russia and US officials insist that Europe can no longer rely on Washington for its defense.

European leaders arrived in Ukraine on Monday, according to social media posts and images posted by Ukraine’s public broadcaster Suspilne.

Some roads in the center of Kyiv were blocked and police officers were deployed.

“On the 3rd anniversary of Russia’s brutal invasion, Europe is in Kyiv,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a post on X, alongside a video that showed her meeting officials at a railway station with European Council President Antonio Costa.

“We are in Kyiv today, because Ukraine is Europe,” she said. “In this fight for survival, it is not only the destiny of Ukraine that is at stake.”

Images posted by Suspilne on its Telegram channel showed Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also disembarking from a train and greeting officials.

Meanwhile, Russia launched another barrage of attack drones across Ukraine overnight, according to Ukraine’s Air Force.

Moscow launched 185 attack drones on Ukraine, of which 113 had been downed and another 71 disappeared from radar after being jammed, Ukraine’s Air Force said Monday.

The attack had “affected” Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Kyiv and Khmelnytsky regions, it said on Telegram, without saying whether it had caused damage or casualties.

The attack comes a day after Ukraine faced its largest drone assault since Russia’s invasion, with 267 drones launched, out of which 138 were intercepted, according to Ukrainian authorities on Sunday.

Ukraine’s armed forces commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi also hailed his troops on the anniversary of the invasion.

“The world did not believe that we would survive, but the Ukrainian people withstood the enemy’s attacks with dignity,” he wrote on Telegram.

Some 7,000 people have died since January in fighting in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), its prime minister told a high-level meeting of the Human Rights Council in Geneva on Monday.

Some 450,0000 people are without shelter after 90 displacement camps were destroyed, Judith Suminwa Tuluka added.

The M23’s advance is the gravest escalation in more than a decade of the long-running conflict in eastern Congo. The rebel group’s capture of swathes of the east and valuable mineral deposits has fanned fears of a wider war.

Rwanda rejects allegations from Congo, the United Nations and Western powers that it supports M23 with arms and troops.

The prime minister urged the world to act and to impose “dissuasive sanctions” amid mass displacements and summary executions.

“It is impossible to describe the screams and cries of millions of victims of this conflict,” she added.

In the opening remarks at the 58th UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, UN chief Antonio Guterres said that human rights around the world are being “suffocated” and referred to horrifying human rights abuses in the DRC.

Since the start of the year, the DRC has faced back-to-back losses in North and South Kivu provinces, fueling criticism of the authorities’ military strategy.

Germany’s political system is set up to exclude extremists. Yet the country is waking up to a new political reality that has lurched to the right with the once outcast Alternative for Germany (AfD) party now firmly established in German politics.

The country’s mainstream conservatives, as polls predicted, won the largest share of votes in Sunday’s election according to official preliminary results and will be looking to form the next government, while the AfD came in second. But make no mistake – second place is a huge result for a party that although it likely won’t be in office once the dust settles, will enjoy expanded influence.

The party has doubled its support since the previous election in 2021, when it received 10.3% of the vote. It is now the first far-right party in Germany’s post-World War II history to have attained such broad levels of public popularity, and it has also significantly increased its share of seats in Germany’s parliament, or Bundestag.

The AfD reached a particularly large number of voters in eastern Germany, where it has long had a stronghold. But it also gained some significant support in constituencies in the country’s west, including the industrial city of Gelsenkirchen which has been suffering with stagnating economy and high unemployment, and Kaiserslautern, which is surrounded by a number of US military installation, including the Ramstein Air Base.

“We have never been stronger – we are the second-biggest force,” AfD co-leader Alice Weidel gloated, as she addressed crowds in Berlin after exit poll results were revealed on Sunday evening.

The mood at the far right’s election party in Berlin was ecstatic as the exit polls first flashed onto the screens, with people cheering and waving Germany flags.

For his part, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader and Germany’s likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz claimed victory as he slammed US interference in the country’s election campaign – which saw high-profile figures from the Trump administration speak out in support of the AfD.

These interventions are “no less dramatic and drastic and ultimately outrageous than the interventions we have seen from Moscow,” Merz said.

Formed in reaction to Eurozone policies in 2013, the AfD had become accustomed to being on the fringe of German politics, in a country scarred by its Nazi past and where any far-right party has been treated with caution.

It only secured its first seats in the Bundestag in 2017 and struggled to find a platform on Germany’s traditional media due to its strident anti-migrant and anti-Islam rhetoric. This election marks the first time the party has ever fielded a candidate for chancellor.

The party has called for “remigration” – the mass expulsion of immigrants. The controversial policy has drawn comparisons to the Nazi era. The AfD is officially suspected of right-wing extremism by German authorities, and parts of it have been under government surveillance.

All that appears to have changed. The AfD is now Germany’s largest opposition party, making it a major political contender that cannot be ignored. It has driven the debate in Germany while forcing mainstream rivals to recognize that they need to do more on flashpoint issues if they want to retain votes.

Their rise reflects what has been happening across Europe where a host of hard-right parties have made gains. Whether in the Netherlands, France or Austria, such parties can no longer easily be dismissed as political outcasts when they have won over sizeable shares of the vote – or in the case of Italy, run the country.

Having a significant voice in parliament means that “they [the AfD] will be able to apply pressure on the major parties from a position of greater strength,” said Gemma Loomes, a Lecturer in Comparative Politics at Keele University.

“The surge in support will embolden the party to talk, perhaps even more aggressively, about the issues that matter most to them but that the major parties are reluctant to address,” Loomes added.

All this begs the question: can the so-called “firewall” – an unofficial agreement between Germany’s mainstream parties to band together to keep the AfD out of power – last?

Merz’s controversial decision to push through an immigration bill with help from the AfD in January could be an early indication of how he intends to proceed in his chancellery.

She believes there may already be a “crack” in the firewall.

“In five, or 10, or 15 years it may no longer be there,” she speculates, perhaps at the regional level initially, if not the national level.

“The real question for center parties is how do we address voters’ genuine grievances, and how do we do it in a way that doesn’t just amplify the far right.”

Meanwhile, AfD politicians already have their sights firmly set on the next election in 2029 – when they are determined the firewall” will no longer exist.

Similarly, Weidel told reporters in Berlin on Monday morning, “Friedrich Merz has decided to maintain his blockade stance towards the AfD. We consider this blockade to be undemocratic. You cannot exclude millions of voters per se.”

Merz’s right-wing pivot ‘fraught with danger’

Merz now faces a tightrope walk as he seeks to form a new government while carving out a new path for the CDU.

The CDU has been ever-present in Germany’s post-war era and oversaw the reunification of east and west.

Yet, at the same time, everything has changed since it was last in power.

No longer tied with the liberal, “open door” policies it became synonymous with under Angela Merkel, Merz has vowed to bring the party back to its more conservative roots as part of efforts to counter the far right.

However, Merz’s promise to pivot the CDU back to the right does not come without risks. The move threatens to further embolden the AfD while isolating the CDU’s more centrist supporter base.

For Loomes, it is a decision that is “fraught with danger.”

“The AfD currently has positioned itself as the only party willing to talk about immigration and to propose radical action to tackle the perceived problem,” she said.

“If the CDU positions itself in this space, it risks being perceived as a less authentic version of the AfD. Voters are convinced the AfD cares passionately about limiting immigration; they may be less convinced it is a genuine priority for the CDU.”

Merz’s new government will likely involve the other major centrist party, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), which led Germany’s previous coalition and came out third in Sunday’s vote.

However, coalition building could prove difficult, with the two parties potentially clashing on key issues, particularly foreign policy. There are no guarantees that the new government will not be as incohesive and unable to govern as the previous coalition.

Transatlantic winds

While Germany has long held far-right parties with a disdain not seen in its European neighbours, some Germans believe the time has come to break old taboos.

And the AfD’s powerful transatlantic ally is only serving to bolster this view.

Tech billionaire Elon Musk addressed crowds during a surprise appearance at the AfD campaign launch in January. “There is too much focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that,” he said, in a speech that echoes AfD talking points and was met with rapturous applause.

Meanwhile, in a scathing speech at the Munich Security Council, US Vice President JD Vance told Europe’s leaders that there is “no room for firewalls” in a democracy, a clear nod to the AfD.

Merz will have to contend with a Trump administration that has praised a key rival and appears set on dismantling long-term security ties between Europe and the US.

A strong Berlin government and a united Europe now seems more important than ever. The continent is searching for leadership as Trump moves ahead on Ukraine peace talks without its involvement.

For Merz, Europe’s independence from the US is a prime concern. “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” he said at a televised roundtable with other party leaders Sunday evening.

While Germany’s mainstream has held off a radical far-right government, Merz’s challenges are only just beginning.