British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to join European leaders at an emergency summit in Paris on Monday, Britain’s PA media reported, after the relationship of the continent with Washington was strained by US President Donald Trump speaking to Russian President Vladimir Putin as he pushes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
“The UK will work to ensure we keep the US and Europe together. We cannot allow any divisions in the alliance to distract from the external enemies we face,” Starmer was quoted as saying in a statement released by Downing Street on Saturday.
“This is a once in a generation moment for our national security where we engage with the reality of the world today and the threat we face from Russia. It’s clear Europe must take on a greater role in NATO as we work with the United States to secure Ukraine’s future and face down the threat we face from Russia,” the prime minister also said.
This comes as Trump’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg said Saturday that European officials will not be at the table when trying to negotiate a solution to the war in Ukraine.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that French President Emmanuel Macron had called for a summit of European leaders in Paris.
He also said that he expects the European leaders to discuss the matter “in a very serious fashion.”
By the time the girl was admitted to hospital, her hair was brittle, her skin was flaking, and she was so malnourished that doctors said she was at risk of cardiac arrest and death.
She was 17 but looked much younger. Witnesses at the hospital said her parents treated her as if she were a small child. They took her to the bathroom, wiped her bottom, blew her nose and brushed her hair as she watched cartoons more suitable for toddlers.
She weighed just 60 pounds (27.3 kilograms) – about the same size as a 9-year-old.
Last month her parents, an Australian couple in their mid-40s, were sentenced to prison in Perth’s District Court of Western Australia for neglecting their only child, even as they ferried her to and from piano and ballet lessons.
Neither the parents nor their daughter can be identified, according to an Australian law that seeks to protect child victims.
In her ruling, Judge Linda Black said it was clear the girl’s parents loved her, but failed in their parental duties to help her develop, physically and emotionally.
“This is not a case about a malnourished ballerina,” Judge Linda Black said as she sentenced the father to six and a half years in prison, and the mother to five years – a reduced sentence to take into account her “personal circumstances.”
“You isolated your daughter, you prevented her from growing up, you prevented her from developing in the way she was entitled to. You did keep her as a little girl long beyond the age where she should have been,” Black said.
For the purposes of this story, we’ll call the girlKate. The following details have been sourced from court documents.
Now 20, the couple’s daughter attended court to hear proceedings. Video blurred by Nine News to conceal her identity.Pool via Nine News
A ‘beautiful ballerina princess’
Kate loved to dance. She was homeschooled by her mother, who quit work when she was born, to take care of her. Most of their time was spent at home, but ballet lessons offered Kate a chance to mix with other children.
Photos released by the court show Kate smiling in brightly colored costumes, her hair slicked back, and her feet and arms in the studied pose of a graceful ballerina.
“What a beautiful photo of my ballerina princess!” her father commented on one photo posted to Facebook, of his daughter who looked far younger than her 14 years.
Kate’s father worked full time to provide for the family, who lived in one of the wealthiest suburbs of Perth, the capital of Western Australia.
They were intelligent people, who obviously knew how to feed themselves, the judge said.
Yet, they failed to ensure their daughter ate enough food.
The couple covered their faces to avoid the media while entering and leaving court.Pool via Nine News
The couple also failed to let Kate grow up as a normal teenager.
Nothing “even remotely age-appropriate” was present in the family’s home, the judge said, pointing to the films and TV shows she watched: Teletubbies, Frozen, and Thomas the Tank Engine.
Unlike most teenagers, who were getting their first jobs and scrolling on social media, Kate was having princess birthday parties and receiving Barbie dolls as gifts. And when other girls were going through puberty, Kate ceased to grow or develop.
During the trial, her father told the court she was a “fussy eater” who had become a vegetarian at age 8 and turned vegan in her early teens. She ate three meals a day and had access to snacks, he said. He didn’t believe she was malnourished.
Vegans avoid eating food that comes from animals, including dairy products and eggs. Their diet is largely made up of fruit, vegetables, grains, nuts and seeds.
“My client didn’t starve his kid … He never withheld food from her. He loved and spoiled his daughter. She was free to eat as much as she wanted. This case was about inadequate nutrition from a vegan diet,” Paxman said.
“Every parent on this planet knows that if you don’t give a child enough food they will starve. But what if your kid chooses to be vegan?”
Judge Black refused to believe the couple didn’t realize their daughter was seriously unwell.
“It seems that everyone in the world who had the opportunity to interact with (Kate) understood she was severely malnourished, except the two people who professed to love her. I simply cannot accept that you didn’t see it. I simply cannot accept that you didn’t notice,” Judge Black said.
In fact, Black found they did notice – so much so that Kate’s father forged her birth certificate to make her seem two years younger, partly to hide what was becoming increasingly apparent to other people – their daughter was chronically malnourished.
Parents at the ballet school were starting to whisper, and her dance teachers implored her parents to see a nutritionist. They refused, and eventually the teachers notified authorities.
By the time Kate was hospitalized at 17, she was 147.5 centimeters (4 feet 10 inches) tall with a body mass index of 12.5 – significantly below the healthy range of 18 to 25.
“She was wasted, according to the doctor, with limited body fat. She was pale. She was exhibiting no signs of puberty. Her hair was brittle and thin. Her skin was dry and flaking. Her heart rate was elevated. The doctor said they needed to do an ECG. And the two of you said no,” Judge Black wrote in her ruling.
As doctors tried to treat her, Kate’s parents openly discussed their suspicions that a conspiracy was forming around them – and that medical staff couldn’t be trusted.
Their daughter was in the Eating Disorder Ward, yet they praised the figure of another patient who was dangerously thin.
They told their daughter her stomach was looking full, and made comments that suggested she might get fat if she followed her doctors’ advice.
“This, in a context of the dire condition your daughter was in, was … outrageous,” Black wrote.
When the couple refused to allow doctors to insert a nasal tube to allow Kate to be fed, and frustrated other attempts to treat her, authorities stepped in and put her into state custody.
Without her parents’ intervention, Kate gained weight, and they were arrested and charged.
When parents can’t let go
Dr Danielle Einstein, a clinical psychologist and author, said cases like Kate’s are “extremely rare.”
She said it’s very common for parents to struggle with the idea that their children will one day leave, but ultimately most want them to grow into responsible adults.
Einstein said one of the problems she has encountered through her work is when parents try to shield their children from problems, or do too much for them.
“Sheltering is a problem; we don’t want to shelter our children. We want them to continue to grow and develop and be capable without us,” she said.
“We’re seeing more anxiety in young adults and in teens because they’re not prepared to face the challenges and overcome the challenges without help.”
Kate’s parents didn’t just prevent her from growing up, the court found – they told “a cascading series of lies” from 2016 about their daughter’s age, to cover up their neglect.
The first came as her mother signed Kate up for a dance class, giving a date of birth that made her daughter seem six months younger than she really was.
Months later, she gave a different birthdate again, to the same dance school, taking off another year, so she appeared 18 months younger.
Then in another application, she knocked a full two years off her age.
“You deliberately lied because you knew that your daughter did not look or behave like a child of her true age,” Black said.
In her sentencing remarks, Black said it was clear that Kate’s parents loved her, but didn’t show it in their actions.
“There is nothing unusual in a parent wanting to cling onto their child and be reluctant to let them go and mature and become an adult. Nothing unusual at all,” she said.
“But what is wrong is when a parent, in fact, prevents the child from embarking upon and completing that natural process.”
“One of your greatest failures was a belief that you could give her what she wanted and failing to give her what she needed,” she continued.
“Every parent knows it’s harder to say no to your child than to say yes. You chose to make the easy decisions rather than the hard ones.”
Kate’s own words provided more evidence to Judge Black that her parents had failed to give her the skills to function without them.
In a letter sent to the judge, appealing to her to drop the prosecution, Kate blamed herself for her parents’ predicament – saying they made her breakfast, lunch and dinner, but she chose how much she ate.
“I’m fully dependent on my parents,” she wrote. “All my living expenses are paid by my parents, including clothes, food, money as I need it. My university fees are being paid by my parents.”
“I love my parents very much. They are the most important people in my life. If my parents go to prison, I don’t think I’ll be able to cope.”
Kate’s father admitted forging her birth certificate, but both parents denied all other charges, while their lawyers pointed to an anxiety disorder to partly explain their behavior.
Judge Black said the couple had taken no responsibility for their actions, and she saw no reason not to jail them.
“You have shown no remorse. You have shown no acceptance of responsibility. You have shown no insight,” she said. Both will be eligible for parole.
Iryna Danilovich disappeared while returning from work in April 2022. It would be two weeks before Russian authorities admitted she was in their custody. The human rights activist and nurse was detained in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, accused of illegal possession of explosives and sentenced to seven years in prison. In her trial, Danilovich testified that she was tortured during her detention.
She has since been deported to a notoriously cruel women’s penal colony in Zelenokumsk, southern Russia. She suffers from constant headaches and her health continues to deteriorate – yet she is not allowed to sit or lie down during the day, according to human rights monitoring group Zmina.
Ukraine has always called its areas under Russian control “temporarily occupied territories,” insisting it will eventually regain control over them. But that hope is being crushed now. This week, US President Donald Trump suggested it was “unlikely” Ukraine would get back much of its occupied land in the peace negotiations he intends to hold with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Danilovich’s case – and she is just one of thousands Kyiv says are detained in Russia – shows what is at stake for Ukraine.
Trump’s comment came after he held a 90-minute phone call with Putin on Wednesday, and it sparked panic across the country, where few believe Putin would negotiate in good faith.
Yuliya Kazdobina, a foreign policy expert at Ukrainian Prism, a think tank, said she doesn’t believe the Russian leader wants peace.
“We already had so many years of negotiations with the Russian side,” she said. Russia has a history of striking and violating agreements with Ukraine going back decades. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for guarantees from the United States, United Kingdom and Russia that they would respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. In 2015, after illegally annexing Crimea and sparking the conflict in eastern Ukraine, Moscow signed a ceasefire agreement only to then repeatedly violate it and then launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine seven years later.
The view from Kyiv
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to the Trump-Putin call by saying his country would not accept a peace deal struck between the US and Russia without Kyiv’s involvement.
“As an independent country we simply cannot accept any agreements without us. And I articulate this very clearly to our partners. We will not accept any bilateral negotiations on Ukraine without us,” Zelensky said, adding that the fact that Trump spoke to Putin first was “not pleasant.”
“We may be left without the currently temporarily occupied territories, without parts of the Kherson region, Zaporizhzhia region and the long-suffering Crimea,” he said. “We must take back what is rightfully ours.”
Russian forces currently occupy nearly 20% of Ukraine’s territory, up from the roughly 7% it controlled before launching its unprovoked full-scale invasion nearly three years ago.
According to Ukrainian officials, some 6 million people, including 1 million children, live under Russian occupation, in what the United Nations has described as a “bleak human rights situation.”
Fears of history repeating itself
Crimea has been under Russian control since Moscow illegally annexed it in 2014. Since then, Russia has imposed a brutal and repressive regime, stomping out any sign of opposition.
Maksym Vishchyk, a lawyer at Global Rights Compliance, a non-profit that advises the Ukrainian authorities on investigating and prosecuting international crimes, said Moscow has repeated the same pattern across other occupied territories.
“And Crimea has been kind of their playbook. Policies and patterns and tactics (Russia) applied in Crimea were then applied as well in other occupied territories. So, we see essentially the same patterns in all occupied territories, both since 2014 and since 2022.”
The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has repeatedly reported the myriad human rights violations committed by Russia in occupied Ukraine – from unlawful detentions to sexual abuse to forcing people to accept Russian citizenship and sending their children to Russian schools and training programs.
Russia has repeatedly denied accusations of human rights abuses.
A dangerous precedent
“Given how many victims this war has already had, and to end it on someone else’s conditions… then why did these (Ukrainian soldiers) die and why did they defend these territories?” he said.
Soldiers fighting on the frontlines were likewise skeptical that negotiations between Trump and Putin could yield a result that would be palatable to many Ukrainians.
Volodymyr Sablyn, a battalion commander in the 66th mechanized brigade, who is fighting near Lyman in the east of the country, said that having Russia take over some of Ukraine’s territory could have dangerous consequences.
“It will set a precedent and show Russia that they can attack any country, take its territory and make it theirs with impunity in the future,” he said, adding that Russia could soon turn their focus on other smaller countries in its vicinity.
Putin has repeatedly made his goals clear: He wants to gain control over the entirety of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions. But many in Ukraine are worried that even if he initially agrees to a ceasefire, he will ultimately instigate further fighting to achieve his endgame.
“No one and nothing will stop Putin from attacking us again and occupying another region or several more. If Europe and America don’t help us, then making peace now will most likely lead to war in a few years,” Sablyn said.
Dariya Tarasova-Markina contributed to this report.
Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old veteran German politician with a hardline stance on migration and a love of aviation, is the favorite to become the country’s next chancellor in the federal election on February 23.
But who is the old-school conservative who wants to rid his party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), of former leader Angela Merkel’s centrist legacy?
His long-time rival’s decision to leave the top job in 2021 prompted Merz to come out of political hibernation and run for the party leadership. After two failed bids, he was eventually selected to lead the CDU in 2022.
Now, he appears to have the chancellery within his grasp after the November collapse of Germany’s governing coalition – made up of the Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens – which paved the way for the snap election.
If his party comes out on top, Merz stands to take the helm of a country mired in crises – although it may take weeks to form a governing coalition. He has pledged to reboot Germany’s large economy after years of uncharacteristic stagnation, crack down on migration, and lower taxes, all while attempting to wrestle back votes from the far right.
Despite his party comfortably topping polls, his campaign has not been all smooth sailing. A dalliance with the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) three weeks before the election drew criticism – and accusations he had breached the mainstream parties’ “firewall” against the AfD.
Beer-coaster economics
Merz was born in 1955 into a conservative, Catholic family in the North Rhine-Westphalia town of Brilon, in central Germany, and joined the CDU’s youth wing while still in school. He entered politics full-time in 1989, when he was elected to the European Parliament at the age of 33.
After serving one term as an MEP, Merz, a married father-of-three, was elected to the Bundestag – Germany’s parliament – and established himself as a leader in financial policy. In 2003, he famously argued that German tax rules should be simple enough to calculate on the back of a beer coaster.
A growing feud with Merkel eventually pushed him to leave politics, however.
Merz, who appealed to the CDU’s more traditionalist, right-wing faction, lost out to Merkel in a party leadership contest in 2000.
Merkel’s leadership signaled a break from the CDU’s norm; she was its first female leader, with a Protestant – rather than Catholic – background and centrist leanings.
The pair’s rivalry became more apparent in 2002, when Merz was pushed aside as leader of the opposition in the Bundestag in favor of Merkel.
By late 2009, Merz had fully joined the private sector.
He worked as a lawyer and senior counsel at the international law firm Mayer Brown, among other positions. These ventures made him a multi-millionaire, according to German business newspaper Handelsblatt.
This background may have persuaded voters that Merz is a man who can do business; a desirable skill for anyone hoping to fix Europe’s largest economy, which contracted for a second year running in 2024.
Merkel’s ‘carpet of fog’
Nine years after he left politics, the announcement of Merkel’s resignation from Germany’s top job paved the way for Merz to re-enter. After two failed bids for CDU party leadership, in 2018 and 2021, he was selected to lead in 2022, cementing his political comeback.
Merz’s desire to distance himself from Merkel’s legacy is clear. He has sought to bring the CDU further to the right than it was under Merkel, partly to try to stop voters turning to the far right, while advocating for a more pro-market economy.
In an interview with German broadcaster ZDF in 2019, he described his predecessor’s “idle” leadership as like a “carpet of fog” over the country, and has said he sees her “open door” refugee policy during the 2015 migrant crisis as a grave error.
Merkel, for her part, criticized Merz in a rare political intervention in January, after he pushed through an immigration bill with help from the AfD – now the CDU’s main rival. The bill was ultimately defeated by the German parliament.
His campaign for the chancellery has largely focused on bread-and-butter issues like tax cuts, deregulation and incentives to work.
Merz drives a hard line on immigration and sees curbing irregular migration to Germany as the most pressing task if he is elected, according to German news magazine Der Spiegel. He has called for asylum seekers arriving from other European Union member states to be rejected at Germany’s land borders.
Merz has criticized liberal welfare benefits and accused Ukrainian refugees of “social tourism” – a phrase he later apologized for using. Overall, he promises to slash welfare spending, telling The Economist in a rare sit-down interview in the lead-up to the election that he wants to avoid “paying people who are not willing to work.”
Merz and the CDU support Germany’s continued military aid to Israel amid its war in Gaza, while also advocating for a two-state solution as the long-term goal. In a televised debate with Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier this month, Merz expressed unease over US President Donald Trump’s proposal to “take over” Gaza, while also suggesting it remains to be seen “what is really meant seriously.”
On the topic of sending aid to Ukraine, Merz has advocated a more hands-on approach than the outgoing SPD-led coalition. He supports the delivery of long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv – something Scholz’s government has refused for fear of drawing Germany into the conflict.
Merz was vague when questioned by The Economist on the issue of Germany’s defense spending, although he acknowledged that it would have to increase in the long run. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth this week reiterated his administration’s demand for NATO members to spend 5% of GDP on defense at a meeting with US allies in Brussels.
Germany’s government last month said it had met NATO’s target to spend 2% of its GDP on defense after establishing a special fund in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine – yet this falls significantly short of the Trump administration’s demand.
In his spare time, Merz is an amateur pilot, sometimes flying his own private plane – an expensive hobby for a man who once described himself to German tabloid Bild as “upper middle class.”
A shipment of heavy bombs from the United States has arrived in Israel, as Marco Rubio visits the country on his first official trip to the region since becoming US Secretary of State.
The munitions were sent after President Donald Trump’s administration last month lifted a hold on the deliveries, Israel’s Ministry of Defense said Sunday.
Israel’s defense minister Israel Katz said the shipment of MK-84 munitions “represents a significant asset for the Air Force and the IDF and serves as further evidence of the strong alliance between Israel and the United States,” in a statement from his ministry. Katz thanked Trump and the US administration for their “unwavering support.”
The new administration’s release of the heavy bomb shipments rolled back one of the few Biden-era policies meant to exert leverage on Israel during its war in Gaza. Former President Joe Biden had restricted the delivery of the 2,000-pound bombs out of concern they could be used indiscriminately by Israel’s military in densely populated areas of Gaza.
Despite causing tensions between Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the move did not portend any major changes in the war. Nor did it significantly improve Biden’s standing among critics of the war, who argued for significantly tighter restrictions on American arms sales to Israel.
The head of Gaza’s Government Media Office Salama Maroof criticized the US decision to send the heavy bombs. “Instead of sending food, medicine, water, or shelter and building materials to the victims in the Gaza Strip, even with a humanitarian motive, the United States of America, the first democracy in the world and a pioneer of human rights, as it describes itself, supports the criminal occupation army with 1,800 heavy MK bombs,” Maroof said.
Rubio landed in Tel Aviv on Saturday night, where he was greeted by Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar on the first leg of his trip to the region. He is meeting with Netanyahu at his office in Jerusalem Sunday morning, where US President Donald Trump’s controversial proposal to “take over” the Gaza Strip is likely to come under discussion.
It also comes a day after three Israeli hostages were released by Hamas as part of a US-mediated ceasefire agreement.
Before his meeting with Netanyahu, Secretary Rubio attended mass at the historic Church of the Holy Sepulchre, according to a State Department official. A news conference is expected later today.
Rubio is also scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as part of his travels.
Bitcoin attracts bold predictions. Recent forecasts show that this top cryptocurrency may soon hit Bitcoin Reach $200000. Many trusted sources, including Yahoo Finance, CoinDesk, Bloomberg, and CNBC, have reported this forecast. This public news reflects rising optimism among market experts amid changing economic conditions.
Market Sentiment and Economic Drivers
Many analysts believe that economic uncertainty and rising prices create a strong chance for Bitcoin to serve as a safe asset. Investors now see Bitcoin as a reliable store of value. They shift funds to cryptocurrencies when they lose trust in traditional assets. In addition, new regulations in key markets push both large and small investors to spread their money across various assets.
Technical Analysis and Price Trends
Technical data supports a potential price surge. Long-term charts show an upward trend, while short-term drops offer good buying points. Trading volumes and network activity grow each day. Experts point to a limited supply and high demand as key reasons that Bitcoin Reach $200000 upto.
Investor Implications and Risk Management
Investors must stay alert in this volatile market. They should manage risk by diversifying their portfolios. Many experts advise reviewing holdings and allocating funds wisely. They also recommend keeping up with the latest market news and technical signals to guide decisions.
Conclusion
This forecast that Bitcoin may reach $200,000 comes from strong market sentiment, positive technical trends, and a unique economic climate. However, investors face a volatile market that demands caution. Experts urge both individual and institutional investors to monitor these trends closely and prepare for various market moves.
While reaching $200,000 is not guaranteed, this forecast offers valuable insight into the ever-changing crypto market. It shows that the market can shift quickly and that informed decisions are key. Investors should act wisely and stay updated on news and trends. By doing so, they can protect their investments and uncover new opportunities in the fast-paced world of cryptocurrencies.
The post Could Bitcoin Reach $200000? Market & Expert Insights appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.
The news cycle is in high gear lately, leading to some extra volatility. Traders reacting to the news are getting whipsawed, while chartists remain focused on what really matters. Price. Price isn’t everything, it’s the only thing. News, rumors, fundamentals, the Fed, government policy and everything else are reflected in price. And, perhaps more importantly, it is easier to follow price than to distill the news.
As chartists, it is not our job to interpret news events or fundamentals. Our job is to set biases aside and focus on price action. We need to answer three questions in a matter-of-fact manner. What is the long-term trend? Is the ETF/stock showing relative strength? Are there any bullish patterns in play? We want to be long when the answer to all three is yes.
TrendInvestorPro specializes in unbiased analysis that focuses exclusively on price action. Each week we define the big trends, identify the leaders and highlight bullish trading setups. We are currently tracking breakouts from mid January (XLI, KRE, ITA) and leadership in several tech-related ETFs (CIBR, IGV, CLOU, AIQ).Click here to take a trial and gain full access.
So what do we do with the news? Ed Seykota, a legendary trend-follower, advocated a systematic approach to trading. His rules-based focused on riding the trend, setting stop-losses and filing the news. This strategy is summed up in his classic Whipsaw Song, which includes the lines:
What do we do when we get a hot news flash?
We stash that flash right in the trash.
Do yourself a favor and stash that flash right in the trash!
Here is a recent “matter-of-fact” example from our ETF Report. SPY is in a long-term uptrend as a bullish cup-with-handle pattern takes shape. First, SPY is trading near a new high and well above the rising 200-day SMA. Second, the middle window shows the SPY/IWM ratio breaking out in mid December and again in February. This ratio rises when SPY (large-caps) outperforms IWM (small-caps).
SPY is in a long-term uptrend and showing relative strength. This leaves us with the third question. Is there a bullish pattern or trading setup on the price chart? SPY corrected from mid December to mid January and broke out on January 21st. At the time, a falling wedge (pink lines) formed and this bullish breakout featured in our report/video that week. New patterns emerge as bars are added and I now see a cup-with-handle, which is a bullish continuation pattern (blue lines). Rim resistance is set at 610 and a breakout here would confirm the pattern.
For subscribers to TrendInvestorPro, this report continues with a video covering the cup-with-handle pattern in detail. We discuss the rationale behind the pattern, a confirmation level, the price target and the re-evaluation level. Click here to take a trial and gain full access.
As part of the DP Alert, we cover Bitcoin and the Dollar every market day. We have been watching some bearish indications on both Bitcoin and the Dollar with the double top chart patterns.
On Bitcoin, price has been moving mostly sideways above support at 90,000. This happens to be the confirmation line of the double top formation. The chart pattern calls for a decline the height of the pattern, which would give us a minimum downside target at about 75,000. The PMO is now in negative territory, but we do see that Stochastics have turned up. Support could hold here and price could continue to meander sideways, but, with this pattern, it is highly vulnerable.
On the weekly chart we see a parabolic advance followed by high level consolidation that formed a bull flag. After the last rally powered price up, we aren’t seeing high level consolidation; it instead looks like a topping formation with the double top very visible. The weekly PMO is nearing a Crossover SELL Signal, which doesn’t bode well.
The Dollar also has a bearish double top visible on the daily and weekly charts. It looked pretty good for the Dollar coming out of a bullish flag formation, but the rally stalled and set up the second top. Technically, the confirmation line (middle of the “M”) has been broken with Friday’s action. The RSI is negative and the PMO is in decline. Unlike Bitcoin, Stochastics are moving lower, suggesting we will see more downside out of the Dollar. That would be good for Gold, which is already enjoying a strong rally. The minimum downside target of the pattern would be around 28.25.
We had an especially bullish breakout from a bearish rising wedge, but now we have that double top. The weekly PMO has turned down, and price looks as if it will be back within the wedge soon.
Conclusion: We have bearish double tops on Bitcoin and the Dollar. Bitcoin has an opportunity to avoid the breakdown given rising Stochastics, but the Dollar seems destined to continue to make its way lower with dropping Stochastics. Downside targets are 75,000 for Bitcoin and 28.25 for the Dollar.
The DP Alert: Your First Stop to a Great Trade!
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How can we define the market trend on multiple time frames, so we can better identify trend changes and ensure we are following the drive of market forces? Today I’ll describe my proprietary Market Trend Model to define the short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends, and share what it’s telling us about market conditions in February 2025.
Using Moving Averages to Define the Trend
Using a simple daily chart with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, we can show why the slope of the moving average can provide valuable insights on trend direction. Let’s look at the daily chart of Apple (AAPL), and we’ll focus on a highlighted period in 2023-2024.
Starting with the 200-day moving average, we can see that the 200-day tends to slope higher during uptrends and lower during downtrends. So for the highlighted period in 2023 and 2024, the 200-day moving average tended to slope higher through that entire trend.
Note how there were a couple meaningful pullbacks in the price of AAPL in Q3 2023 and Q2 2024. While the 200-day moving average was still sloping higher, the 50-day moving average sloped downward in each of those pullbacks. So by using two moving averages of varying periods, we can define the trend by simply looking at the slope of the moving averages.
We can also use a crossover technique and look for golden crosses (short-term moving average crosses above long-term moving average) and death crosses (short-term moving average crosses below long-term moving average) as a way of determining changes in those trends.
The problem with simple moving averages, as used above, is that they weigh all the data points equally in the calculation. So what happened two days ago has the same impact as what happened 192 days ago! By using exponential moving averages, which weight the most recent data the most, our charts will react more quickly to changes in the trend.
My Market Trend Model uses a series of exponential moving averages on a weekly chart of the S&P 500 to define the secular (long-term), cyclical (medium-term), and tactical (short-term) time frames. By using the PPO indicator, I can chart the trends using a histogram and simply check if the comparison is above or below the zero line.
Based on my model, the long-term trend has been bullish since March 2023. The medium-term trend, which is the most important one for my own portfolio analysis, turned bullish in November 2023. And the short-term trend just turned bullish in early January after flipping bearish in early December of last year.
Tracking the Market Trend Model in February 2025
When my Market Trend Model is bullish on all three time frames, as it is as of this Friday’s closing price data, it tells me to be looking for long ideas and make sure I am taking on risk in my portfolio. If the short-term trend would turn bearish, that would indicate a pullback phase within the long-term uptrend, as we observed a number of times in 2024.
The key signal I’m looking for would be the medium-term trend turning bearish, which last occurred in September 2023. That signal would tell me to go more risk-off, to get more defensive, and to focus more on capital preservation than capital appreciation. For now, my Market Trend Model is suggesting a market trending higher. And until the medium-term trend turns bearish, I’m inclined to assume the market trend is innocent until proven guilty!
RR#6,
Dave
PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!
David Keller, CMT
President and Chief Strategist
Sierra Alpha Research LLC
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
The stock market is like a river — constantly changing without knowing what lies ahead. Sometimes it’s calm. Other times it’s choppy. And when the stock market is choppy, it can leave investors in a dilemma, leading them to make irrational investment decisions.
The broader stock market indexes have been choppy lately, going up one day and down the next. Frequent news headlines such as tariffs, inflation data, and earnings influence market price action. This makes it a very challenging environment for investors. So how should you position your portfolio in this type of market?
Instead of chasing headlines, navigate the market by analyzing the overall trend and momentum. Start with the big picture before diving into individual stocks or exchange-traded funds.
The View From the Top
The S&P 500 ($SPX) has seen a lot of sideways choppiness (see daily chart of the S&P 500 below). After it broke out of the downward channel (blue dashed lines), it continued moving sideways with a series of lower highs. The up-and-down price action reflects the headline-driven characteristic of the market.
FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500 INDEX. The overall trend remains bullish, but don’t be surprised if the consolidation extends further.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The index looks like it wants to reverse the “lower highs” series and resume its uptrend. It tried hard to hit a record close but, alas, closed shy of it on Friday. The new 52-week highs outnumber the new 52-week lows, which is a sign of healthy market breadth.
The overall trend is in favor of the bulls, as of this writing, but there’s a lot of hesitancy among investors. If we continue to see a headline-driven market, there’s a chance of an extended consolidation period. We need to see a breakout of the consolidation, with a series of higher highs and higher lows to confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
Expect to see more headlines in the near term. So far, we’ve seen the news rattling the market sometimes and, at other times, not impacting the markets at all. Tariffs, inflation, tax cuts, and deregulation are a handful of topics you’re likely to hear about in the near term. Let’s analyze how each of these factors will impact your investment portfolio.
Trade Tariffs
Trump has imposed 10% tariffs on China and 25% on steel and aluminum imports. He has delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico but is still scheduled to impose them in early March. President Trump was expected to sign an order for reciprocal tariffs, but that turned into a memo requesting a plan of action for these tariffs. This could take a few months to get implemented. The market was quick to shrug this off.
There’s no doubt that tariffs are front and center in investors’ minds. Trump’s main objectives of tariffs are to collect revenues for the government, protect specific industries, and curtail the flow of illegal drugs into the US. But there are headwinds, the biggest of which is inflation. A restriction in global trade could send ripples through complex supply chains, resulting in higher prices.
Inflation: Will It Create Waves?
The Federal Reserve is already planning to pause rate cuts in 2025, and January’s hot CPI increased the probability of this happening. The dot plot now suggests one rate cut in 2025, which, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, is pushed out until the July Fed meeting, as of this writing.
A rise in inflation would mean the Fed would be more cautious with interest rate cuts. Tariffs and an expansion of the federal deficit could impact the interest rate cut path. A good chart to monitor inflation is the chart of the ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF/iShares TIPS Bond ETF (RINF:TIP), which approximates the market’s inflation expectations.
FIGURE 2. THE STOCK MARKET’S INFLATION EXPECTATIONS. Inflation expectations seem to be lowered after the market shrugged off recent inflation reports and tariff news.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Inflation expectations aren’t as low as they were in September 2024 but are below the January highs.
Why impose tariffs when it upsets global trade and results in inflation? One of President Trump’s tariff objectives is that tariff revenues will offset his planned tax cuts.
Lower Taxes and Deregulation
Trump plans to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions. He also plans to add other tax cuts — eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits. Lower taxes means more money for consumers and corporations. But will the tax cuts be enough to make up for the higher prices consumers will have to pay for goods?
These are just one piece of the change puzzle. Other policy changes include less oversight across different industries. Three sectors that could benefit from deregulation are Financials, Industrials, and Energy.
Financial companies can benefit the most, especially if rules for banks, credit card companies, etc. are more relaxed. The biggest beneficiary could be the big banks.
Dialing back on environmental regulations such as carbon emissions will benefit oil and gas companies.
Less compliance costs would mean more productivity. As a result, the Industrials sector could see gains.
The PerfChart below compares the one-year performance of the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI), and Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE).
FIGURE 3. PERFCHART OF FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, AND ENERGY. A deregulatory environment would benefit certain industries more than others. Financials are in the lead and are likely to benefit the most from deregulation.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The Financials are leading the pack, while the Energy sector is lagging. In a deregulatory environment, the Financials could remain in the lead.
The Bottom Line
Expect to see a boatload of news stories as the year unfolds. As a smart investor, the best way to navigate the stock market’s up and down waves is to follow the charts discussed in this article. There are many uncertainties in the market, so don’t sway your investment decisions based on what you hear in the news.
You never know what lies ahead, just like a river. But if you look at the overall trends, determine which sectors are being impacted by policy changes, and keep an eye on inflation expectations, you’ll be able to navigate steadily through the rough patches.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.