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February 27, 2025

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DP Trading Room: Defensive Sectors Lead the Pack

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The complexion of the market is changing. Aggressive sectors which have led the market higher are now beginning to show signs of strain as momentum slowly dissipates and prices turn lower. However, defensive sectors (XLP, XLRE, XLV and XLU) are now leading the market. Typically when this occurs the market is at a top. Given the look of the SPY, we could very well have hit a major market top.

Carl started off the trading room with a review of the DP Signal Table and Bias Table which are still looking bullish overall.

He then gave us his analysis of the market in general looking at not only the SPY, but Bitcoin, Gold, Gold Miners, the Dollar, Bonds and more!

Once the market review was complete, Carl walked us through the Magnificent Seven charts, both daily and weekly. There is clear weakness showing through on most of these stocks and that doesn’t bode well for the market as a whole.

Erin took over and discussed sector rotation, specifically the gains in defensive sectors. Aggressive sectors are topping and looking very weak. Energy has some potential, but it still has to figure out what “drill, baby, drill” will mean for Crude Oil related stocks.

Finally, Erin covered viewer symbol requests which included SMCI, MSTR, PLTR and JPM.

Join us LIVE in the free DP Trading Room on Mondays at Noon ET by signing up ONCE at https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_D6iAp-C1S6SebVpQIYcC6g#/registration

Schedule:

01:13 DP Signal Tables

03:35 Market Overview

15:04 Magnificent Seven

21:25 Palantir (PLTR) and Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF (PSP)

27:04 Sector Rotation

31:43 Symbol Requests

Remember, we have a free two-week trial available on all of our reports. Just use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout: https://www.decisionpoint.com/products.html

The DP Alert: Your First Stop to a Great Trade!

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

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Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

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Decode the Stock Market’s Health With This Key Indicator

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The US Consumer Confidence Index® came in much lower than expectations, and the Expectations Index fell to 72.9. A fall below 80 signals a recession ahead, enough to elevate the fear of economic weakness. As a result, the stock market sold off. But after 11:30 AM ET, the buyers came in, and the market rebounded from its lows. However, the rebound wasn’t enough to make much of a dent, except for the Dow which closed in the green. 

If you regularly monitor breadth indicators, you may have noticed that the New Highs – New Lows Index ($NYHL) was up over 150%. This caught my attention. The broader equity indexes were falling significantly, yet the new highs were way higher than the new lows. That was unusual, but since the stock market is known for pulling surprises when you least expect it to, it’s helpful to look under the hood to determine if the stock market is strong or weak. 

The Market’s Heart Beat

Looking through the rest of my charts in my Market Analysis ChartList — a part of my daily routine — one that I found interesting is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with the Percent Above Moving Average oscillators in the lower panels (see chart below).

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF SPY. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages are above 50 but watch these oscillators closely as they indicate the health of the overall market. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It’s interesting to note that the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) started to decline at the end of September 2024. The SPY was still trending higher and it wasn’t till December when it started to pull back.

The September pullback coincided with a relatively low percentage of stocks trading below their moving averages and declined further during the January 2025 pullback. But the oscillators recovered from these levels and as of now, even though SPY bounced off its 100-day moving average, they are not close to the previous lows. The good thing is they are all above their 50 threshold level. You can’t say the same for the Nasdaq stocks.

The chart below replaces SPY with Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and analyzes the percentage of Nasdaq stocks trading above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs. They are trading at levels seen in August 2024, which is when QQQ went through a -15.56% pullback.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF QQQ. Although the QQQ is holding on to the support of its 100-day SMA, the percent of stocks trading below their moving averages are below 50, which is a bearish indication. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Technology sector witnessed a four-day losing streak and was the worst-performing sector in the last week. Tech stocks are facing many headwinds — tariffs, AI unwinding, and chip availability, to name a few. Investors are rotating out of Tech stocks and moving into the offensive sectors — Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care. 

The Bottom Line

The broader stock market is at an interesting juncture and could go either way. SPY and QQQ are holding on to the support of their 100-day SMA but two important news events could shake things either way — NVIDIA earnings and Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). The rest of the week could be a bumpy ride.

If you haven’t done so, apply the percentage of stocks trading above significant moving averages oscillator. Percentage Above Moving Average indicator is available for several indexes. Try them out and see which ones give you a good “under the hood” look at the broader market.

StockChart Tip. Click the charts of SPY and QQQ in the article to see a live chart.

Then, save the charts to one of your ChartLists. Not sure how to create ChartLists? Check out this tutorial.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Bearish Signals & Risk Management: Protect Your Portfolio!

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In this video, Dave breaks down bearish macro signals and risk management using the “line in the sand” technique! Learn how to spot key support levels, set alerts on StockCharts, and protect your portfolio!

This video originally premiered on February 26, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

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Sector Rotation: How to Spot It Early Using Four Tools

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Sector rotation is difficult to spot in real time because it unfolds over weeks or months and isn’t always obvious until after the fact. Since there’s no single or definitive way to monitor a rotation, you’d have to observe it from different angles. In this article, we’ll examine one combined approach you can use.

Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence report saw its worst decline in four years. This followed last week’s Consumer Sentiment report, which also caused a huge upset. If anything, these confidence reports indicate that investors are forecasting the likelihood of a recession.

Might these expectations also be evident in the way investors are allocating their capital? In other words, are we seeing an early sector rotation from cyclical to defensive stocks?

Julius de Kempenaer’s article on the top five leading sectors touches on this. If you’re not familiar with his articles, sector rotation is sort of his thing, so I recommend you follow his posts if this interests you.

FIGURE 1. RRG SECTOR CHART. Is a rotation underway?Chart source: “The Best Five Sectors #8.”Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Financials (XLF)—both cyclical components—have begun to retreat from their leadership positions. Meanwhile, Utilities (XLU), a purely defensive sector, started showing signs of strength despite lagging behind its cyclical peers.

To get another bird’s eye view of sector activity, pull up a sector chart on MarketCarpets. Here’s a screenshot of a five-day view taken on Tuesday. It doesn’t show the type of movement the RRG chart shows, but you can view the strength of performance (and other available metrics) in percentage terms.

FIGURE 2. MARKETCARPETS SECTORS CHART. Among the cyclical stocks only, Consumer Discretionary is the weakest performer, while Consumer Staples leads the pack.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Granted, five days of performance doesn’t define a trend, but this chart suggests an interesting pattern: Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate are outperforming their sector peers. Although Real Estate is generally cyclical, REITs, known for their steady income, often exhibit defensive characteristics.

What do these movements look like in terms of market breadth? The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is a powerful tool for assessing the internal strength of an index or sector. So let’s examine the top three cyclical and defensive sectors to see what the BPI reveals.

FIGURE 3. THE TOP THREE CYCLICAL AND DEFENSIVE SECTORS BASED ON BPI.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

While the BPI gives you the percentage of stocks exhibiting P&F buy signals (see the highlighted number on the vertical axis to the right), there are a lot of nuances involved in analyzing these numbers in detail. For example:

  • BPI favors the bulls when above 50% (meaning more than 50% of stocks in the index are signaling P&F buys).
  • BPI favors the bears when below 50%.

There’s more nuance to this, all of which is covered in the ChartSchool article (see link above Figure 3). That said, here are a few key points:

  • The cyclical sectors—Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials—are either declining or lagging behind their defensive counterparts.
  • Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities—all defensive sectors—have a greater percentage of stocks signaling P&F buy signals, a bullish indication.

It would help to compare the performance of both sector groups, which is why it’s a good idea to look at ratios.

Here’s the issue: Finding a definitive index for these stocks is challenging, since sectors like Tech, Industrials, Energy, and Communications fall somewhere between cyclical and defensive. However, ETFs such as the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) can serve as useful proxies for cyclical and defensive stocks, respectively.

  • MTUM is heavily weighted in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Financials stocks.
  • SPLV is concentrated in Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care.

Here’s a ratio chart (SPLV:MTUM) comparing the two.

FIGURE 4. RATIO OF SPLV TO MTUM. This attempts to show the spread between defensive vs cyclical sectors.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

By plotting a Zig Zag line, you can see the swing points that define the ratio’s trend. Note the following:

  • Defensive sectors appear to be basing, if not bottoming, against cyclicals, following a longer-term downtrend.
  • Defensives have also broken above a recent swing high but appear to be pulling back; if a rotation were to occur, you’d expect the ratio to continue trading above both the current swing high and low, following the basic principle that an uptrend consists of consecutive swing highs and lows.

Your Next Action Steps

Keep tracking the activity of defensive and cyclical sectors using the RRG, MarketCarpets, BPIs, and ratio chart. It’s too early to tell right now whether a sustainable rotation is at play, and much of the dynamics affecting these sectors are subject to the political and geopolitical policies at play. If the likelihood of a rotation appears more evident, then drill down on sector ETFs or individual stocks within the sector.

At the Close

Sector analysis is a complex topic that requires a multi-angled approach. If you’re attempting to time a rotation, you don’t want to move too early into a rotation that doesn’t pan out, but neither do you want to move too late. By using StockCharts tools like RRG charts, MarketCarpets, BPIs, and ratio analysis, you can gain clearer insights into whether investors are shifting from one sector to another. Keep a close eye on economic and policy shifts as well, as they’re likely to change the conditions of the market.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Hidden MACD SIGNAL? Key Trade Signals Explained!

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In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe breaks down reverse divergences (hidden divergence), key upside & downside signals, and how to use ADX and Moving Averages for better trades! Plus, he examines market trends and viewer symbol requests!

This video was originally published on February 26, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

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Crypto Market Recap: Bybit Investigates Lazarus Hack, SEC Ends Uniswap Investigation

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Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Wednesday (February 26) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at US$84,419.28, reflecting a decrease of 4.4 percent over the past 24 hours. The day’s trading range has seen a high of US$88,223.72 and a low of US$82,445.07.

“The price evolution in the coming days will largely depend on market sentiment and how major players respond to global economic conditions. While some see risk in the current situation, others view it as an opportunity to accumulate positions at lower prices, anticipating an eventual recovery.”

Ethereum (ETH) is priced at US$2,330.15, marking a loss of 6.6 percent over the same period. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday high of US$2,453.70 and a low of US$2,265.72.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) is currently valued at US$135.33, down 6.5 percent over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded an intraday high of US$139.64 and a low of US$130.96.
  • XRP is trading at US$2.22, reflecting a 3.4 percent decrease over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded an intraday high of US$2.29 and a low of US$2.17.
  • Sui (SUI) is priced at US$2.88, showing a 2 percent decrease over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily high of US$3.03 and a low of US$2.75.
  • Cardano (ADA) is trading at US$0.6535, reflecting a 3.9 percent decrease over the past 24 hours. Its highest price on Wednesday was US$0.6831, with a low of US$0.6351.

Crypto news to know

Bybit investigates Lazarus hack, offers reward

Bybit has launched a public appeal and a new website to investigate and track wallet addresses following a hack last week. The attack saw the group Lazarus drain US$1.4 billion from the exchange’s hot wallet. The company’s CEO, Ben Zho, said Bybit is offering a 5 percent reward for information that helps recover stolen assets.

The Bybit hack led to a significant crypto market correction, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and meme coins all seeing substantial price declines. At the same time, US spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds saw outflows totaling US$937.9 million on Tuesday (February 25), their largest daily net outflow since inception.

Oklahoma advances bill proposing Bitcoin investment

Oklahoma House Bill 1203, known as the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, passed a House Committee vote on Tuesday, advancing for consideration on the floor. The bill was introduced by Representative Cody Maynard (R) on January 15, and would allow the Oklahoma state treasurer to invest public funds in Bitcoin, as well as any digital asset, including stablecoins, with a market cap of US$500 billion or more over the previous calendar year.

South Dakota lawmakers reject Bitcoin reserve proposal

A proposal to add Bitcoin to South Dakota’s state reserves has failed to gain traction, as lawmakers voted to postpone the bill indefinitely during a legislative session on Monday (February 24).

The bill, which sought to make South Dakota the first US state to hold Bitcoin as a treasury asset, was seen as a potential breakthrough for state-level Bitcoin adoption. However, after deliberation, the state’s House Commerce and Energy Committee voted to delay the bill indefinitely, signaling that it will not be revisited this session.

Supporters of the bill had argued that Bitcoin could serve as a hedge against inflation and offer a decentralized alternative to traditional reserve assets. Critics, however, raised concerns over the cryptocurrency’s price volatility and regulatory uncertainty, questioning whether it is a suitable asset for state reserves. Some lawmakers also suggested that South Dakota should wait for more regulatory clarity before making such a move.

Despite the setback, analysts believe other states may still move forward with Bitcoin reserve proposals this year. According to the Bitcoin Reserve Monitor, at least 18 states are currently exploring the idea. Among them, Florida, Utah, Arizona and Texas remain the most likely to push for Bitcoin reserves in 2025.

SEC ends Uniswap investigation, boosting DeFi confidence

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially closed its investigation into Uniswap Labs, marking a significant moment for the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector.

Uniswap, the leading decentralized exchange, had been under scrutiny since April 2024, when the SEC issued a Wells notice suggesting the platform may have been operating as an unregistered securities exchange.

However, the regulator has now decided against further enforcement, effectively clearing Uniswap of wrongdoing.

Following the news, Uniswap’s governance token UNI jumped 5 percent as investors welcomed the regulatory clarity. In a statement, Uniswap called the decision a “win for DeFi and decentralized technology,” emphasizing that DeFi platforms operate differently from centralized financial entities and should not be subject to the same regulations.

This development comes amid major shifts at the SEC, following Gary Gensler’s departure in early 2025.

Under Acting Chair Mark Uyeda and Commissioner Hester Peirce, the agency has been reevaluating its approach to crypto regulation, leading to the closure of multiple investigations, including those for Robinhood Crypto and OpenSea.

Bank of America eyes stablecoin launch

According to Fortune, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told a group of investors gathered at the Economic Club of Washington, DC, that the bank is ready to launch a stablecoin if legislation to regulate the industry passes in both chambers of Congress. The Lummis-Gillibrand Payment Stablecoin Act, the Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act of 2024 and the most recently introduced stablecoin bill, the GENIUS bill, are currently being considered.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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NVIDIA Earnings: What Investors Need to Know

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NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) results have once again exceeded analysts’ expectations.

Despite bearish sentiment leading up to the release of its earnings, the company delivered strong results for its fourth fiscal quarter of 2025, driven by the surging demand for its artificial intelligence (AI) solutions.

Quarterly revenue reached US$39.3 billion, a 78 percent increase year-on-year and a 12 percent rise from the previous quarter. Data center revenue soared to US$35.6 billion, up 93 percent from a year ago, highlighting the critical role of NVIDIA’s chips in powering the AI revolution. Earnings per diluted share hit US$0.89, surpassing estimates of US$0.85.

NVIDIA projects revenue of US$43 billion for its first fiscal quarter of 2026, indicating continued growth confidence.

While NVIDIA’s performance remains impressive, the company faces a dynamic and challenging environment.

The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI competitor, has raised concerns about over-concentration in AI. Additionally, the timeline for widespread real-world AI applications remains uncertain, and geopolitical tensions, particularly with NVIDIA’s ties to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM,TPE:2330), add complexity.

The US government’s efforts to restrict NVIDIA’s business in China also pose challenges.

Despite these headwinds, NVIDIA continues to push the boundaries of AI innovation.

During the most recent quarter, which ended on January 26, 2025, the company announced its role as a key technology partner for the US$500 billion Stargate Project, unveiled new GeForce RTX 50 Series graphics cards with AI-enhanced rendering and launched NVIDIA Cosmos, a platform designed to accelerate the development of physical AI.

Partnerships with major cloud providers, as well as leading healthcare institutions and car manufacturers like Hyundai Motor (KRX:005380) and Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM), further demonstrate NVIDIA’s commitment to driving AI adoption.

The company closed Wednesday (February 26) up 3.67 percent at US$131.28 and with a market capitalization of US$3.22 trillion. Its share price rose as high as US$135.67 in after-hours trading.

CEO Jensen Huang expressed enthusiasm for the ‘amazing demand’ for NVIDIA’s Blackwell architecture, emphasizing its ability to scale AI capabilities and deliver smarter solutions.

NVIDIA’s strong quarterly performance and bullish outlook reinforce its position as a leader in the AI space.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Is Now a Good Time to Buy Bitcoin?

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Bitcoin is prone to price volatility, with wide swings to the upside and downside.

There has been renewed interest in cryptocurrencies following the election of US President Donald Trump. The Bitcoin price, after soaring to new heights in 2024, has consolidated just under US$100,000 in the first quarter of 2025 as investors and other industry insiders speculate on how the Trump administration’s policies could grow the sector and encourage mainstream adoption.

Trump ran on a platform that promised to make the US the Bitcoin capital of the world, vowing to establish a national reserve for the asset, and several states have already introduced legislation to create similar reserves within their borders.

Meanwhile, institutions and businesses like Michael Saylor’s Strategy have continued to buy Bitcoin by the millions, and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain popular.

This surge of interest paints a bullish picture of Bitcoin’s continued growth.

However, buying Bitcoin isn’t a simple decision. Before you decide if Bitcoin is a good investment for you, you need to understand both Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. Read on to learn the basics.

In this article

    What gives Bitcoin its value?

    Bitcoin was the world’s first cryptocurrency, created in January 2009 by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto.

    Conceived as a virtual alternative to fiat currency, Bitcoin is built atop blockchain technology, which it uses for both validation and security. Blockchain itself is a distributed digital ledger of transactions, operating through a combination of private keys, public keys and network consensus.

    The best analogy to explain how this works in practice involves Google Docs. Imagine a document that’s shared with a group of collaborators. Everyone has access to the same document, and each collaborator can see the edits other collaborators have made. If anyone makes an edit that the other collaborators don’t approve of, they can roll it back.

    Going back to Bitcoin, the virtual currency primarily validates transactions through proof of work. Also known as Bitcoin mining, this competitive and incredibly resource-intensive process is the means by which new Bitcoins are generated.

    How it works is deceptively simple. Each Bitcoin transaction adds a new ‘block’ to the ledger, identified by a 64-digit encrypted hexadecimal number known as a hash. Each block uses the block immediately preceding it to generate its hash, creating a ledger that theoretically cannot be tampered with. Bitcoin miners collectively attempt to guess the encrypted hex code for each new block — whoever correctly identifies the hash then validates the transaction and receives a small amount of Bitcoins as a reward.

    From an investment perspective, Bitcoin toes the line between being a medium of exchange and a speculative digital asset. It also lacks any central governing body to regulate its distribution. As one might expect, these factors together make Bitcoin quite volatile, and therefore somewhat risky as an investment target.

    As for the source of this volatility, Bitcoin’s value is primarily influenced by five factors.

    1. Supply and demand

    It’s widely known that no more than 21 million Bitcoins can be produced, and that’s unlikely to happen before 2140.

    Only a certain number of Bitcoins are released each year, and this rate is reduced every four years by halving the reward for Bitcoin mining. The last of these ‘halvings’ occurred in April 2024 and the next one is due sometime in 2028. When it happens, there may be a significant increase in Bitcoin demand, largely driven by media coverage and investor interest.

    Bitcoin demand is also strengthening in countries experiencing currency devaluation and high inflation.

    It would be remiss not to mention that Bitcoin represents an ideal mechanism for supporting illicit activities — meaning that increasing cybercrime could itself be a demand driver.

    2. Production costs

    It’s said that Bitcoin benefits from minimal production costs. This isn’t exactly true, however. Solving even a single hash requires immense processing power, and it’s believed that crypto mining collectively uses more electricity than some small countries. It’s also believed that miners were largely responsible for the chip shortage experienced throughout the pandemic due to buying and burning out vast quantities of graphics cards.

    These costs together have only a minimal influence on Bitcoin’s overall value. The complexity of Bitcoin’s hashing algorithms and the fact that they can vary wildly in complexity are far more impactful.

    3. Competition

    Bitcoin’s cryptocurrency market share has sharply declined over the years. In 2017, it maintained a market share of over 80 percent. Bitcoin’s current market share is just over 56 percent.

    Despite that fall, Bitcoin remains the dominant force in the cryptocurrency market and is the marker by which many other cryptocurrencies determine their value. However, there is no guarantee that this will always remain the case. There are now scores of Bitcoin alternatives, known collectively as altcoins.

    The most significant of these is Ethereum. Currently accounting for roughly 14 percent of the crypto market, Ethereum has maintained its position as the second largest cryptocurrency. Some experts have suggested that Ethereum may even overtake Bitcoin, but others don’t see that as a possibility in the near future.

    4. Regulations

    Bitcoin may itself be unregulated, but it is not immune to the effects of government legislation. For instance, China’s 2021 ban of the cryptocurrency caused a sharp price drop, though it quickly rallied in the following months. The European Union has also attempted to ban Bitcoin in the past, and Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Venture, accused the US of trying to do the same in February 2023. A ban in either region could be devastating for Bitcoin’s overall value.

    However, the US made progress in establishing crypto legislation in 2024 when the House passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century (FIT21) Act in a bipartisan 279 to 136 vote on May 22.

    5. Public interest and media coverage

    As with any speculative commodity, Bitcoin is greatly influenced by the court of public opinion.

    Perhaps the best example of this occurred in 2021. At that time, a tweet from Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk caused Bitcoin’s price to drop by 30 percent in a single day. This also wiped about US$365 billion off the cryptocurrency market.

    A more recent example occurred on January 9, 2024, leading up to the deadline for eight spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In a since-deleted post on X, formerly known as Twitter, a hacker falsely stated that the SEC had approved all eight pending Bitcoin ETFs. This caused the price of Bitcoin to spike to US$48,000, but it quickly dropped back down to around US$46,000 after the SEC confirmed it was a hack, leading some analysts to consider it a ‘sell-the-news’ event.

    Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?

    The current US administration is crypto friendly, and Bitcoin and altcoins are seeing support in 2025. Could they go higher, or should you wait for a dip? Bitcoin is notoriously volatile, which can make it difficult to judge where the crypto is going next, but there are several strategies to help investors decide when to invest.

    To determine if it is a good time to invest in Bitcoin, investors should pay attention to the market and listen to the experts, as generally speaking, Bitcoin’s price action is sentiment-driven. To keep on top of big news in the sector, follow our frequent Crypto Market Updates.

    There are also different technical indicators that crypto traders use to help them decide if now is the time to buy or sell, which you can learn about below.

    For example, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical indicator used to gauge the momentum of a cryptocurrency’s price. It fluctuates on a scale from 0 to 100. By analyzing the magnitude of recent price changes relative to the previous 12-month period, the RSI helps traders identify whether a cryptocurrency is potentially overbought or oversold. An RSI above 70 often signals an overbought market, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold market.

    Another metric to consider is the MVRV Z-score, calculated by subtracting the ‘realized’ value of Bitcoin, which is an average of the prices at which each Bitcoin was last moved, from the current market value. This is then divided by the standard deviation of the Bitcoin market cap.

    This indicator helps identify when market value deviates strongly from realized value, which could show the market is at a turning point. A score above 7 likely indicates that Bitcoin is overvalued, meaning it could be due for a correction, while a score below 0 suggests that Bitcoin is undervalued, meaning it could be a good buying opportunity.

    Finally, to gauge the overall market sentiment, investors can look at the Fear & Greed Index. This index provides a snapshot of how optimistic or fearful the market is about Bitcoin, with high readings potentially signaling overenthusiasm and a possible correction.

    While it’s useful to learn these technical indicators to help you trade, it is important to remember that there’s no such thing as a guaranteed investment, especially when it comes to cryptocurrencies. On the one hand, there’s virtually no chance that Bitcoin will experience a crash to zero. On the other hand, we also cannot take for granted that its value will continue to climb.

    What is Bitcoin’s long-term price outlook?

    For those considering Bitcoin as a long-term investment, it’s worth considering experts’ thoughts on Bitcoin in the future.

    Veteran analyst Peter Brandt said in February 2024 that if Bitcoin could break past its previous high, the cryptocurrency could easily reach a new record of US$200,000 by September 2025.

    Only two weeks after the interview, Bitcoin surpassed the US$72,000 mark in the early hours of March 11. On December 4, one month after the US presidential election, Bitcoin reached US$100,000 for the first time, an elusive target it has surpassed a handful of times since.

    As of writing, Bitcoin has been locked in a weeks-long consolidation phase, its price averaging around US$96,500. Bitcoin analyst Jelle said on February 19, 2025, that Bitcoin’s next target could reach US$140,000 if it holds above its lower trendline of US$93,000.

    Not everyone is so optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects. Pav Hundal, lead market analyst at Swyftx, has expressed concerns about Bitcoin’s future in the context of continued geopolitical upheaval and economic uncertainty.

    Billionaire investor Warren Buffet, meanwhile, has not minced words regarding his opinion on Bitcoin and its future. According to Buffet, Bitcoin is an unproductive asset with no unique value. He also feels that it doesn’t count as a true currency — in fact, he called it “rat poison.” Moreover, he believes that the crypto market as a whole will end badly.

    Regardless of whether you believe Bitcoin’s proponents or naysayers, it’s clear that it has some incredibly prominent backers in both the investment world and the wider business landscape. Business analytics platform Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) is by far the largest public company in the Bitcoin space, with 478,740 Bitcoin to its name as of February 20, 2025. The next three public companies with the largest Bitcoin holdings are Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) with 44,893 Bitcoin, Riot Platforms with 18,221, Tesla with 11,509 and Hut 8 (NASDAQ: HUT) with 10,096.

    The US, China and the United Kingdom hold the top three spots for countries with the most Bitcoin holdings, with 207,189, 194,000 and 61,000 Bitcoin respectively at that time.

    There are also plenty of individuals with large holdings, the most significant of which is believed to be Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Other prominent names include Michael Saylor, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss and Tim Draper.

    How to smartly invest in Bitcoin

    To help increase the odds of crypto being a good investment, investors in the Bitcoin market should learn the basics of safely investing in Bitcoin.

    How to buy Bitcoin

    The good news is that investing in Bitcoin is actually quite simple. If you’re purchasing through a stockbroker, it’s a similar process to buying shares of a company. Otherwise, you may need to gather your personal information and bank account details. It’s recommended to secure your network with a VPN prior to performing any Bitcoin transactions.

    The first step in purchasing Bitcoin is to join an exchange. Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) is one of the most popular, but there’s also Kraken and Bybit. If you’re an advanced trader outside the US, you might consider Bitfinex.

    Once you’ve chosen an exchange, you’ll need a crypto wallet. Many first-time investors choose a software-based or ‘hot’ wallet either maintained by their chosen crypto exchange or operated by a service provider. While simpler to set up and more convenient overall, hot wallets tend to be less secure as they can be compromised by data breaches.

    Another option is a ‘cold’ wallet — a specialized piece of hardware specifically designed to store cryptocurrency. It’s basically a purpose-built flash drive. If you plan to invest large amounts in crypto, a cold wallet is the better option.

    Once you’ve acquired and configured your wallet, you may choose to connect either the wallet or your crypto exchange account to your bank account. This is not strictly necessary, and some seasoned investors don’t bother to do this.

    Finally, with your wallet fully configured and your exchange account set up, it’s time to place your order.

    Best practices for investing in Bitcoin

    The most important thing to remember about Bitcoin is that it is a high-risk asset. Treat Bitcoin as a means of slowly growing your existing wealth rather than an all-or-nothing gamble, and never invest money that you aren’t willing to lose..

    As with other investments, it’s important to hedge your portfolio. Alongside Bitcoin, you may want to consider investing in other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, or perhaps an altcoin. You may also want to explore other blockchain-based investments, given that even the most stable cryptocurrencies tend to be fairly volatile.

    It’s also key to ignore the hype surrounding cryptocurrencies. Recall how many people whipped themselves into a frenzy over non-fungible tokens in 2022. More than 95 percent of the NFTs created during that time are now worthless.

    Make decisions based on your own market research and advice from trusted — and more importantly, certified — professionals. If you’re putting up investment capital based on an influencer’s tweets, you are playing with fire.

    You should also start small. A good rule of thumb is not to dedicate more than 10 percent of your overall capital to cryptocurrency. Even that number could be high — again, it’s all about moderation.

    Make sure to prioritize cybersecurity as well. Cryptocurrencies are an immensely popular target for cybercriminals. In addition to maintaining a cold wallet, make sure you practice proper security hygiene. That means using a VPN and a password manager while also exercising mindfulness in how you browse the web and what you download.

    Finally, make an effort to understand what cryptocurrencies are and how they work. One of the reasons Sam Bankman-Fried was able to run FTX as long as he did was because many of his investors didn’t fully understand what they were putting their money into. Don’t let yourself be fooled by buzzwords or lofty promises about Web3 and the metaverse.

    Do your research into the technology behind it all. That way, you’ll be far better equipped to recognize when something is a sound investment versus a bottomless money pit.

    Indirect crypto investing

    Given Bitcoin’s volatility, it’s understandable that you might be leery of making a direct investment. The good news is that you don’t have to. You can indirectly invest into the crypto space through mutual funds, stocks and ETFs.

    ETFs are a popular and flexible portfolio choice that allows investors to benefit from a sector’s performance without the need to directly own individual stocks or assets. They are an especially appealing option in the cryptocurrency market as the technical aspects of purchasing and holding these coins can be confusing and intimidating for the less technologically inclined.

    Bitcoin futures ETFs provide exposure to the cryptocurrency’s price moves using Bitcoin futures contracts, which stipulate that two parties will exchange a specific amount of Bitcoins for a particular price on a predetermined date.

    Conversely, spot Bitcoin ETFs aim to track the price of Bitcoin, and they do so by holding the asset. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been offered to Canadians since 2021; for more details, check out 13 Canadian Cryptocurrency ETFs and 5 Biggest Blockchain ETFs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in the US on January 11, 2024.

    Do a bit of research and touch base with your stockbroker or financial advisor before you go in this direction.

    Investor takeaway

    Bitcoin is a fascinating asset. Simultaneously a transactional tool and a speculative commodity, it’s attracted the attention of investors almost since it first hit the market. Unfortunately, it’s also incredibly volatile.

    For that reason, while current market conditions are favorable for anyone considering buying Bitcoin, it is an asset you should purchase only at your own risk. Because while Bitcoin may have the potential for significant returns, you may also lose most of your investment. If that knowledge doesn’t bother you, then by all means, purchase away.

    Otherwise, there are better — less volatile — options for your capital.

    FAQs for buying Bitcoin

    What is a realistic Bitcoin price prediction for 2025?

    Reality and price predictions rarely match up as forecasters have no way of predicting major events like Russia’s war with Ukraine or the COVID-19 pandemic. On top of that, the further away the time period, the less realistic the prediction will be.

    As such, there is a massive range for 2025 Bitcoin price forecasts. As of April 2024, forecasts for where the Bitcoin price might land in 2025 range from US$74,456.13 to US$270,929.12. We’ll have to wait a a couple of years to see which are correct.

    What does Cathie Wood say about Bitcoin?

    ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood is extremely bullish on Bitcoin, telling Bloomberg in February 2023 that her firm believes the cryptocurrency could reach a value of US$1 million by 2030. A year later, Wood hiked her 2030 bitcoin price prediction astronomically to US$75 trillion.

    Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

    This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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    Investing

    Argo Launches Digital Gold Investment Platform in the US, Aims to Disrupt Industry

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    Argo Digital US has launched its 24/7 gold investment platform in the US.

    In an early February announcement, the Sprott family-backed company said the launch reflects its commitment to delivering safe and accessible gold investment opportunities, offering secure, digital access to physical gold.

    “We believe Argo will appeal to the modern investor looking for a secure digital-first platform that meets their alternative investment needs,” said Argo Co-founder and President Michael Petch in a statement.

    A market-driven launch

    According to Argo, its analysis suggests that around 8.2 million retail investors could be open to investing in the yellow metal, representing a US$5.45 billion annual investment opportunity.

    Data from the World Gold Council shows that annual gold investment reached a four year high of 1,180 metric tons in 2024, a 25 percent increase. In addition, Q4 demand value hit US$111 billion.

    “This took 2024 over the line to reach the highest-ever annual value of US$382 billion,” the council notes.

    Simplifying gold investment

    Argo believes its gold investment platform brings a number of new elements to the table.

    “(Our platform) is designed to provide retail investors with direct access to high-quality physical gold holdings. The platform was initially launched with a robust inventory of gold insured and securely stored with a trusted sovereign custodian, ensuring sufficient liquidity to meet investor demand,” the company said via email.

    Argo is also committed to eliminating transaction fees to encourage investors to buy and sell gold.

    “We have a highly competitive and transparent storage fee of just 0.12 percent, which is significantly lower than traditional gold investment options,” Petch said, adding that this eliminates hidden charges and high markups.

    The platform exclusively holds Argo’s assets at present, but the company is open to expansion in the future.

    “We are open to strategic partnerships and collaborations with reputable gold suppliers, institutions and investment platforms that align with our commitment to transparency and investor security,” Petch said.

    Additional precious metals, in all their forms, will be added to the platform at a later date. There are also plans to integrate additional offerings, such as direct deposits and crypto-to-gold conversions in the future.

    “Our founding team’s long-standing success in the precious metals markets and asset management industry gives us deep confidence in Argo Digital Gold’s expansion into the US,” Argo Co-Founder and Chair Peter Grosskopf added.

    “As we introduce a modernized platform to the process of buying one of the world’s oldest alternative assets, (we are) seeking to disrupt the US$3.2 trillion gold investment industry by enabling easy and direct ownership of precious metals.’

    On payments and privacy

    Argo supports automated clearinghouse and wire transfers, with additional payment options to be added later.

    When asked about security, Argo said it has implemented stringent data protection measures to safeguard user data, including industry-standard encryption, secure authentication protocols and compliance with regulatory frameworks.

    “Our platform operates with a zero-compromise approach to privacy, ensuring that personal and financial details are protected against unauthorized access,” Petch said. He also noted that all gold holdings are fully insured and stored with trusted institutional partners for an added layer of security and confidence for Argo’s investors.

    Gold growth

    According to Argo, gold has demonstrated an impressive average annual growth rate of 8 percent in US dollars since 1971, supported by its inverse correlation to the stock market in periods of risk.

    The precious metal has reached multiple new highs in 2025 already, breaking US$2,950 per ounce on February 20 on the back of ever-increasing global turmoil, including tariff talks and tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

    Even so, many market watchers believe gold’s run isn’t over.

    “How much higher? It is hard to say, but a real all-time-high of just under US$3,500 is less than 35 percent higher than where we are today. That seems doable,” Lobo Tiggre, CEO of IndependentSpeculator.com, said at the end of 2024.

    Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

    This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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