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February 23, 2025

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Gold and Silver Are Crushing the S&P 500! Here’s What You Need To Know Now!

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There’s been a lot of wild speculation surrounding gold’s bullish run. When you consider a gold investment, you’re likely to think of the more common factors that come into play: inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank demand. 

But there’s more to the mix now, especially in light of the Trump administration’s latest initiatives and policies. These new developments are spurring speculations that are likely to change the context surrounding how investors view gold. Here are a few key things to think about:

  • Around 12.5 million ounces of gold have been imported into the US since last November.
  • President Trump announced a possible audit of Fort Knox gold reserves which hasn’t been done since the early 1970s (is it all still there?).
  • The US government’s gold valuations remain at an outdated $42.22 an ounce.

The big rumor (keyword: rumor) is that gold is due for a revaluation. Will Trump use the revaluation to boost the value of the Treasury’s holdings, possibly paying down the national debt? Will his administration attempt a partial return to the gold standard? Will the gold be used to counter China’s reported attempt at launching a gold-backed currency to challenge the US dollar? 

Whatever the case may be, a full revaluation is likely to drive bullish sentiment in gold, sending prices higher. If the government sells gold to weaken the dollar, you can expect some short-term price dips before a rebound. And if, by any chance, the Fort Knox audit reveals a shortfall, then that’s bad news for the economy and markets but good news for gold, which will likely send prices skyrocketing.

To get some near-term context, let’s see how gold has been performing over the last year relative to silver, commodities in general, and the S&P 500.  

FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS OF GOLD, SILVER, COMMODITIES MARKETS, AND THE S&P 500. Gold and silver outperformed both the broader stock and commodities markets over the past year. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It turns out that both gold and silver have been outperforming the broader equities and commodities markets.

Let’s take a long-term view of gold. Below is a weekly chart. 

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. There are no signs of topping yet, though its ascent has grown increasingly steep. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If volume precedes price, then accumulation, as shown by the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) on the chart, has stayed well ahead of it for a little over three years. Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may be registering as “overbought” but the reliability of this indicator in the current environment is anyone’s guess.

Trump’s policy blitz is transforming the political and economic landscape, and it brings certain shocks that can make technical and fundamental analysis more fluid. For now, there are no clear signs of topping, which makes it difficult for anyone interested in finding an entry point. So, let’s zoom in on a daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF GOLD. There are still no signs of a top except for the declining buying pressure indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow indicator. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

There are still no clear signs of near-term weakness, aside from a slight drop in buying pressure indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). If gold pulls back, the $2,900 high will likely serve as the first support level. Additional support zones, marked by the magenta lines, align with key swing highs and lows based on the Zig Zag lines.

The final three levels define a broad trading range and coincide with the Volume by Price indicator, highlighting areas of concentrated trading activity where support is most likely to hold. If prices retreat, these levels will be crucial to watch for a potential rebound. So, right now, it’s a matter of waiting for a pullback.

Silver is another asset that has outperformed commodities and the broader market. Might the grey metal present a tradable opportunity? Below is a daily chart to consider.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF SILVER. The grey metal has room to run but watch your entry point. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The RSI indicates that silver has more upside to go before reaching an overbought level. Note the relative performance window that I plotted in a manner that replicates the well-known gold/silver ratio (lower panel) . 

Historically, this ratio has averaged around 65:1 since the 1970s, meaning it typically takes 65 ounces of silver to equal the value of one ounce of gold. Note that every time the ratio reaches the 90-line silver tends to rally. 

Silver is currently rallying, but is another entry point on the horizon? Possibly, but patience is key. This relative performance setup highlights the value of the gold/silver ratio in identifying potential silver entry points, whether for short-term trades or long-term positions.

At the Close

Monitor “spot” $GOLD and $SILVER by adding them to your ChartLists. However, you may be interested in entering trades using their ETF equivalents in GLD and SLV. The prices will differ from their spot price, but the chart patterns that define your entry will be highly correlated, given a few slight adjustments.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Investing

Tech 5: Intel Faces M&A Rumors, Apple Debuts New iPhone

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This week brought major moves in the tech space, including a new product release from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and reports of a potential shakeup for Intel’s (NASDAQ:INTC) businesses.

Meanwhile, big things are brewing for two former OpenAI members, and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has made a quantum leap. Plus, following a remarkable period of growth, Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) experienced an unexpected shift.

Read on to learn more about what happened during a busy week in the tech sector.

1. Apple debuts new iPhone 16e with advanced features

Apple rolled out a new device to the iPhone 16 lineup on Wednesday (February 19), expanding its offerings with a budget-friendly option that doesn’t compromise on advanced functionality.

The more affordable iPhone 16e comes equipped with an advanced 2-in-1 camera system, Apple’s A18 chip — replacing the A17 chip found in iPhone 15 models — to enable Apple Intelligence. It also comes with the company’s new C1 modem, the first cellular modem designed entirely in-house, replacing Qualcomm’s (NASDAQ:QCOM) Snapdragon X70.

This move towards in-house components is expected to continue, with Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicting the company will also replace Broadcom’s (NASDAQ:AVGO) Wi-Fi chips with its own, starting with the iPhone 17 series.

According to Cult of Mac, an online publication that focuses on Apple news and product reviews, the C1 modem “integrates 4G, 5G, satellite and GPS radios in one chip”, representing a “brand-new direction for Apple silicon, alongside the company’s processors and other wireless chips.”

The modem helps enable the phone’s satellite features, which allow for emergency communication and location tracking even when outside cellular and Wi-Fi coverage. It also helps extend the phone’s battery life.

Pre-orders began on Friday (February 21) and the phones will be available for purchase next week.

Later, Apple wrapped up the week by announcing on Friday that it would include Apple Intelligence in visionsOS 2.4, the immersive Apple Vision Pro platform. The update will enable tools such as text composition from ChatGPT and an Image Playground where users can create new images using AI. The changes are set to take place for English users in April, with features for additional languages rolling out gradually throughout the year.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg sources recently revealedthat the company has run into engineering problems and bugs that may delay the release of Apple’s promised overhaul of its digital assistant Siri, which was slated for April.

Sources claim that the update could now come in May or later.

The company also faces intensifying rivalry with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), particularly in the emerging field of humanoid robots, as detailed in this piece from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman.

2. Intel surges on acquisition rumors, then dips

Shares of Intel opened over 10 percent higher on Tuesday (February 18) after the Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that rival chipmakers Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) (NYSE:TSMC) and Broadcom were both in talks to acquire different divisions of the company. According to the report, Broadcom is seeking Intel’s chip-design business, while TSMC is looking to acquire its chip-manufacturing unit.

Separately, Bloomberg reported on Monday (February 17) that Silver Lake Management was in talks to acquire a majority stake in Intel’s programmable chips unit, Altera, continuing the upward momentum.

The stock reached US$27.39 by the closing bell on Tuesday, nearly 14 percent higher than the closing price the previous Friday.

However, the majority of the company’s gains were promptly reversed on Wednesday after analysts voiced concerns over Intels’ potential break up and possible barriers to acquisition, such as different manufacturing processes. Regulatory scrutiny was also cited as a potential obstacle to any deal between Intel and TSMC.

And the Trump administration ‘could be wary of a foreign entity completely taking over an iconic US-firm,’ Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya wrote in a note to investors Tuesday, despite reports suggesting that the Taiwanese firm was considering the deal at the request of the Trump administration.

3. Ilya Sutskever’s SSI secures major investment

On Monday, Bloomberg disclosed a US$1 billion deal for OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever’s start-up, Safe Superintelligence (SSI). Sutskever was formerly a chief scientist at OpenAI before leaving the company in May 2024.

Sutskever was a central figure in an attempt to remove OpenAI CEO Sam Altman from the company in November 2023; however, just days later Sutskever signed a letter demanding Altman’s return and said he regretted his participation.

He started SSI in June 2024, shortly after leaving OpenAI. The company focuses on building advanced artificial intelligence technology with safety features and has attracted significant interest from investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz and DST Global, despite not yet generating revenue.

The latest funding round is led by venture capitalists at San Francisco-based firm Greenoaks Capital Partners, who have committed US$500 million, according to the report. Sources say the company is in talks to raise more than US$1 billion, potentially valuing the company at US$30 billion.

While Reuters provided details of the deal earlier in February, sources had previously valued the company at US$20 billion, a significant increase from its US$5 billion valuation following a funding round in September 2024.

Also this week, Mira Murati, another former OpenAI employee who previously served as the company’s chief technology officer, announced the name of her new venture, Thinking Machines Labs, via a blog post on Tuesday. Murati resigned from OpenAI in September 2024 after the company agreed to change its corporate structure, handing control to its for-profit arm as a stipulation of a US$6.6 billion funding round.

4. Palantir faces dual challenges

Shares of software company Palantir plunged by over 21 percent this week after Benzinga and other media outlets reported a regulatory disclosure on Wednesday, revealing CEO Alex Karp’s plan to sell nearly 10 million shares.

Later on Wednesday, the Pentagon announced it would cut roughly US$50 billion from its budget after it was ordered to reduce spending by 8 percent every year for the next five years last Friday by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Cuts are likely to affect staffing as well as some weapons programs, according to NPR.

However, certain areas, such as border defense and spending on drones and submarines, will likely be exempt from the cuts or even receive increased funding.

“President Trump’s charge to the Department of Defense is clear: to achieve peace through strength,” wrote Robert G. Salesses, a senior Pentagon official, in a press release. “We will do this by putting forward budgets that revive the warrior ethos, rebuild our military, and reestablish deterrence.”

Palantir is a well-established defense contractor that works extensively with the US military. In December 2024, the company secured a US$401 million follow-on contract with the US Army to continue its work on the Vantage platform, an AI-powered data analysis tool used to improve decision-making and readiness. Its stock has seen remarkable growth, increasing by nearly 350 percent compared to its value a year ago.

5. Microsoft unveils new quantum chip

On Wednesday Microsoft unveiled its newest innovation, a quantum computing chip that the company claims can solve meaningful, industrial-scale problems in years, not decades.

Named Majorana 1, this chip stands apart from other quantum computing approaches due to its unique particles, which offer increased resilience against errors. Many qubits are incredibly sensitive to their environment, and tiny disturbances can cause them to lose their quantum information, resulting in computing errors.

Majorana 1 tackles this challenge with its unique architecture, where quantum information is distributed and protected, making it less susceptible to environmental disturbances and resulting in greater stability.

Microsoft refers to Majorana’s architecture as “topological,” which basically means the quantum information is encoded robustly, tied to the overall state of the system rather than individual parts.

This protection comes from the unique nature of the particles themselves: they’re Majorana particles, which are their own antiparticles—a very unusual property that contributes to their stability.

However, some researchers have cast doubt on whether Microsoft’s chips are capable of such stability.

Steven Simon, a theoretical physicist at the University of Oxford, UK, who was results at its research center in Santa Barbara, told Nature: “Would I bet my life that they’re seeing what they think they’re seeing? No, but it looks pretty good.”

He also said that there was no way to know from the experiment whether Microsoft had created qubits made of topological states. Notably, Microsoft previously claimed it had accomplished Majorana states in 2018, but later retracted its assertion in 2021 after further testing.

Still, Microsoft shares saw a boost after the press release, closing up 1.5 percent higher on Wednesday afternoon.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Editor's Pick

Decades-old grenade kills two toddlers in rural Cambodia

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A rocket-propelled grenade believed to be more than 25 years old killed two cousins, a girl and a boy both 2 years old, when it blew up Saturday near their homes in rural northwestern Cambodia, officials said.

The accident happened in Siem Reap province’s Svay Leu district, where there had been heavy fighting in the 1980s and 1990s between Cambodian government soldiers and rebel guerrillas from the communist Khmer Rouge. The group had been ousted from power in 1979.

Muo Lisa and her male cousin, Thum Yen, lived in neighboring homes in the remote village of Kranhuong. Their parents were doing farm work when the two toddlers apparently came across the unexploded ordnance and it detonated. Experts from the Cambodian Mine Action Center determined afterwards from fragments that it was a rocket-propelled grenade.

Old unexploded munitions are especially dangerous because their explosive contents become volatile as they deteriorate.

“Their parents went to settle on land that was a former battlefield, and they were not aware that there were any land mines or unexploded ordnance buried near their homes,” CMAC Director-General Heng Ratana said. “It’s a pity because they were too young and they should not have died like this.”

Some 4 million-6 million land mines and other unexploded munitions are estimated to have littered Cambodia’s countryside during decades of conflict that began in 1970 and ended in 1998.

Since the end of the fighting in Cambodia, nearly 20,000 people have been killed and about 45,000 injured by leftover war explosives. The number of casualties has declined over time; last year there were 49 deaths.

“The war is completely over and there is fully peace for more than 25 years, but the blood of the Khmer (Cambodian) people continues to flow because of the remnants of land mines and ammunition,” Heng Ratana said on his Facebook page.

Cambodian deminers are among the world’s most experienced, and several thousand have been sent in the past decade under U.N. auspices to work in Africa and the Middle East.

Cambodia’s demining efforts drew attention earlier this month, when U.S. financial assistance for it in eight provinces was suspended due to President Donald Trump’s 90-day freeze on foreign assistance. Heng Ratana said Thursday he had been informed that Washington had issued a waiver allowing the aid — $6.36 million covering March 2022 to November 2025 — to resume flowing.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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Editor's Pick

Israel to remain in some West Bank refugee camps for ‘coming year’ as military expands campaign

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The Israeli military is expanding its operations in the occupied West Bank and will remain in some refugee camps for the “coming year,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said Sunday.

Israel has been carrying out “Operation Iron Wall” – a military campaign focused on the northern West Bank which launched last month, just two days after the Gaza ceasefire began. At least 27 people have died in the offensive, the Palestinian health ministry says.

“I have instructed the IDF to prepare for a prolonged presence in the cleared camps for the coming year and to prevent the return of residents and the resurgence of terrorism,” Katz said in a statement.

The Israeli military meanwhile said Sunday that it was operating in “additional towns” in the Jenin area.

“Simultaneously, a tank platoon will begin operating in Jenin as part of the operational activity,” it added, the first time Israeli tanks have operated in the Palestinian territory since the end of the second intifada, or uprising, in 2005.

The Israeli military has launched regular incursions into Jenin and its refugee camps in recent years but has not established a permanent presence in the immediate area. Jenin came under Israeli occupation in 1967 but was put under the administration of the Palestinian National Authority in 1995 as a result of the Oslo Accords.

Since Hamas’ October 7 attack, Israel has engaged in an increasingly militarized campaign that it says targets West Bank militants, employing tactics like airstrikes that were once nearly unheard of there.

Katz said Sunday that the Israeli military is “conducting offensive operations to eliminate terrorist strongholds, neutralizing militants, and destroying terror infrastructure, buildings, and weapons caches on a large scale.”

He vowed to “continue clearing refugee camps and other terror hubs to dismantle the battalions and terror infrastructure of radical Islam.”

“We will not return to the previous reality,” he said.

The Palestinian foreign ministry has dismissed such justifications as “pretexts” to bring the territory under Israeli control.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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Editor's Pick

Tens of thousands join mass funeral for slain Hezbollah leader Nasrallah

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The long-delayed funeral for Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah is taking place Sunday, nearly five months after he was killed in a massive Israeli airstrike on the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Hezbollah has been left badly depleted by Israeli attacks and the mass event is intended as a show of strength for the militant and political group.

Tens of thousands of mourners flooded Beirut’s largest stadium, where the ceremony begins, and packed the surrounding streets. A large procession will trail a vehicle carrying the late militant leader’s coffin to a shrine in southern Beirut, erected as his final resting place.

Sunday’s ceremony also commemorates Nasrallah’s successor, Hashem Safieddine, who led the militant group for just days before an Israeli strike killed him in early October.

Nasrallah was secretly buried in a private ceremony shortly after his death, according to Hezbollah officials. That he is only being buried now underscores the militant group’s weakened state, after an Israeli military campaign in Lebanon last autumn nearly wiped out the group’s top military brass and killed thousands of its fighters, in addition to hundreds of civilians.

A ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel was signed last November, ending a months-long war, but drove the militant group deeper underground with Israel continuing to strike what it describes as Hezbollah targets. Israel struck several locations in Lebanon hours before the start of the mass funeral, according to local and state media.

Nasrallah’s death marks the end of an era for a militant group that grew from a rag-tag group of guerrilla fighters in 1982 to a regional force whose influence spanned at least four countries.

He was elected leader of the armed group in 1992 as a 32-year-old cleric. He went on to preside over a guerrilla campaign in southern Lebanon that ultimately drove Israeli forces out of the country in 2000, ending a 22-year occupation. In 2006, he led Hezbollah militants in an all-out war against Israel, which devastated large parts of Lebanon but foiled Israel’s stated goal of dismantling the group.

When wars raged in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, Nasrallah’s forces intervened on behalf of groups backed by Iran, shoring up Tehran’s support.

But Hezbollah’s fortunes changed after the Hamas-led surprise attack on Israel which killed around 1,200 people on October 7, 2023. The militant group launched daily rocket attacks on Israel’s northernmost territory, in support of Hamas, displacing some 60,000 Israelis. Around 100,000 Lebanese residents of the south were also displaced in Israeli attacks as part of a tit-for-tat that spanned nearly a year before it spiralled into an all-out war last September.

Nasrallah called it a “supportive front” that he said aimed to pressure Israel into ceasing its retaliatory offensive in Gaza, which has laid waste to large parts of the besieged territory and killed over 48,000 people.

In mid-September, Israel detonated explosives implanted in thousands of pagers and walkie talkies carried by Hezbollah members and assassinated several of the group’s leaders, laying bare Israel’s thorough infiltration of the armed group.

Severely weakened, Hezbollah’s future as a militant group is being called into question. Israel has vowed to continue to strike the group’s positions until the group disarms and has maintained five strategic positions inside Lebanon’s southern-most territory, breaching the November ceasefire agreement.

Domestically, the group has come under increasing pressure to lay down its arms. That culminated with the newly elected President Joseph Aoun’s inaugural speech in January when he called on weapons to be monopolized under the authority of the state.

Hezbollah has long resisted calls to give up their arms, which it argues have prevented Israel’s reoccupation of the country. Its detractors say their militancy makes a viable Lebanese state impossible.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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Economy

Could Bitcoin Reach $200000? Market & Expert Insights

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Bitcoin attracts bold predictions. Recent forecasts show that this top cryptocurrency may soon hit Bitcoin Reach $200000. Many trusted sources, including Yahoo Finance, CoinDesk, Bloomberg, and CNBC, have reported this forecast. This public news reflects rising optimism among market experts amid changing economic conditions.

Market Sentiment and Economic Drivers

Many analysts believe that economic uncertainty and rising prices create a strong chance for Bitcoin to serve as a safe asset. Investors now see Bitcoin as a reliable store of value. They shift funds to cryptocurrencies when they lose trust in traditional assets. In addition, new regulations in key markets push both large and small investors to spread their money across various assets.

Technical Analysis and Price Trends

Technical data supports a potential price surge. Long-term charts show an upward trend, while short-term drops offer good buying points. Trading volumes and network activity grow each day. Experts point to a limited supply and high demand as key reasons that Bitcoin Reach $200000 upto.

Investor Implications and Risk Management

Investors must stay alert in this volatile market. They should manage risk by diversifying their portfolios. Many experts advise reviewing holdings and allocating funds wisely. They also recommend keeping up with the latest market news and technical signals to guide decisions.

Conclusion

This forecast that Bitcoin may reach $200,000 comes from strong market sentiment, positive technical trends, and a unique economic climate. However, investors face a volatile market that demands caution. Experts urge both individual and institutional investors to monitor these trends closely and prepare for various market moves.

While reaching $200,000 is not guaranteed, this forecast offers valuable insight into the ever-changing crypto market. It shows that the market can shift quickly and that informed decisions are key. Investors should act wisely and stay updated on news and trends. By doing so, they can protect their investments and uncover new opportunities in the fast-paced world of cryptocurrencies.

The post Could Bitcoin Reach $200000? Market & Expert Insights appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

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Stock

Unlocking the Secrets to Profitable Semiconductor Investments

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Disappointing guidance from Walmart (WMT) may have hurt the stock market on Thursday sending the broader indexes lower. But something is churning beneath the surface you don’t want to miss.

There’s a group of stocks that are showing signs of revival after a long period of going nowhere. The industry is close to your heart but the stocks that are gaining ground may surprise you.

Don’t Pass On the Chips

Semiconductor stocks have been on a long sideways trip since mid-October, but that may be coming to an end (see chart below). You can see the semis tried to break out of the sideways range but failed to stay above the range. You can thank DeepSeek for the late January gap down. SMH is now approaching the top of the range again and here’s what’s interesting— it’s not your NVIDIAs, Taiwan Semiconductors, or Broadcoms that are taking the lead in this industry group.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF THE VANECK VECTORS SEMICONDUCTOR ETF (SMH). Semiconductors have been in a long sideways move since early October 2024. They’ve moved above their trading range a few times but retreated to their sideways range. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Since mid-February, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has outperformed the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) by a modest amount. This should be an alert that something is brewing beneath the surface and screams for a deeper dive.

A closer look at the five-day performance of the Semiconductor industry in the StockCharts MarketCarpets shows that the most heavily weighted stock, NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), gained 6.84%. However, the top three stocks in terms of performance—Wolfspeed (WOLF), Adeia (ADEA), and Peraso (PRSO)—are less weighted stocks and not necessarily household semiconductor names. Seeing these stocks come out of their slump is encouraging. 

FIGURE 2. STOCKCHARTS MARKET CARPETS FOR SEMICONDUCTORS. Here, you see the five-day performance of the semiconductor stocks. The table on the right lists the stocks sorted by percentage gain. Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Wolfspeed In the Lead

Let’s look at WOLF’s daily chart. The stock has gained 45.53% in the last five trading days, broke above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), and is above the upper Bollinger Band®. Trading volume has picked up in the last four months. 

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF WOLFSPEED. The stock price has broken above its 50-day SMA and upper Bollinger Band on higher-than-average volume. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The price action in WOLF isn’t flashing a buy signal. An uptrend needs to be established as does accumulation. Ideally, you want to see this stock trade above its 200-day SMA. This could take some time but if it does happen, I would add my decision indicators such as the StockCharts Technical Rank and relative strength index (RSI) to confirm the technical strength and momentum in the stock. Once these indicators signal an uptrend is in full swing, I wouldn’t hesitate to open a long position in WOLF.

Adeia Is a Close Second

ADEA, which gained 32.10% in the last five trading days, made a much more aggressive move (see chart below). The stock price hit an all-time high, is trading well above its 50-day SMA, and volume spiked in the last two trading days. The price move had to do with Adeia’s strong Q4 earnings report.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF ADEA. The stock price gapped higher on a strong earnings report. A high SCTR score makes this an attractive stock to consider adding to your portfolio and the RSI shows strong momentum. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

A SCTR score greater than 90 indicates the stock is technically strong and an RSI of 83.10 indicates the stock has momentum. However, given the parabolic move, the stock price is likely to pull back. I would consider the December 16 closing price of around $14.50 to be the first support level. It could break below this price and fade the gap. I’d monitor this chart closely for a “buy the dip” opportunity. A reversal after a pullback with follow-through to the upside would be an ideal entry point for ADEA. 

I didn’t find the PRSO chart interesting so will not add it to my StockCharts ChartLists. 

Chips Ahoy!

If WOLF and ADEA don’t meet your investing criteria, feel free to go through the table in the MarketCarpet and analyze more charts on the list. You’re bound to find stocks that are within your comfort zone. There’s no end to the number of stocks you can identify with the  MarketCarpet and other StockCharts tools.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Stock

Gold and Silver Are Crushing the S&P 500! Here’s What You Need To Know Now!

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There’s been a lot of wild speculation surrounding gold’s bullish run. When you consider a gold investment, you’re likely to think of the more common factors that come into play: inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank demand. 

But there’s more to the mix now, especially in light of the Trump administration’s latest initiatives and policies. These new developments are spurring speculations that are likely to change the context surrounding how investors view gold. Here are a few key things to think about:

  • Around 12.5 million ounces of gold have been imported into the US since last November.
  • President Trump announced a possible audit of Fort Knox gold reserves which hasn’t been done since the early 1970s (is it all still there?).
  • The US government’s gold valuations remain at an outdated $42.22 an ounce.

The big rumor (keyword: rumor) is that gold is due for a revaluation. Will Trump use the revaluation to boost the value of the Treasury’s holdings, possibly paying down the national debt? Will his administration attempt a partial return to the gold standard? Will the gold be used to counter China’s reported attempt at launching a gold-backed currency to challenge the US dollar? 

Whatever the case may be, a full revaluation is likely to drive bullish sentiment in gold, sending prices higher. If the government sells gold to weaken the dollar, you can expect some short-term price dips before a rebound. And if, by any chance, the Fort Knox audit reveals a shortfall, then that’s bad news for the economy and markets but good news for gold, which will likely send prices skyrocketing.

To get some near-term context, let’s see how gold has been performing over the last year relative to silver, commodities in general, and the S&P 500.  

FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS OF GOLD, SILVER, COMMODITIES MARKETS, AND THE S&P 500. Gold and silver outperformed both the broader stock and commodities markets over the past year. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It turns out that both gold and silver have been outperforming the broader equities and commodities markets.

Let’s take a long-term view of gold. Below is a weekly chart. 

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. There are no signs of topping yet, though its ascent has grown increasingly steep. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If volume precedes price, then accumulation, as shown by the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) on the chart, has stayed well ahead of it for a little over three years. Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may be registering as “overbought” but the reliability of this indicator in the current environment is anyone’s guess.

Trump’s policy blitz is transforming the political and economic landscape, and it brings certain shocks that can make technical and fundamental analysis more fluid. For now, there are no clear signs of topping, which makes it difficult for anyone interested in finding an entry point. So, let’s zoom in on a daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF GOLD. There are still no signs of a top except for the declining buying pressure indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow indicator. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

There are still no clear signs of near-term weakness, aside from a slight drop in buying pressure indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). If gold pulls back, the $2,900 high will likely serve as the first support level. Additional support zones, marked by the magenta lines, align with key swing highs and lows based on the Zig Zag lines.

The final three levels define a broad trading range and coincide with the Volume by Price indicator, highlighting areas of concentrated trading activity where support is most likely to hold. If prices retreat, these levels will be crucial to watch for a potential rebound. So, right now, it’s a matter of waiting for a pullback.

Silver is another asset that has outperformed commodities and the broader market. Might the grey metal present a tradable opportunity? Below is a daily chart to consider.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF SILVER. The grey metal has room to run but watch your entry point. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The RSI indicates that silver has more upside to go before reaching an overbought level. Note the relative performance window that I plotted in a manner that replicates the well-known gold/silver ratio (lower panel) . 

Historically, this ratio has averaged around 65:1 since the 1970s, meaning it typically takes 65 ounces of silver to equal the value of one ounce of gold. Note that every time the ratio reaches the 90-line silver tends to rally. 

Silver is currently rallying, but is another entry point on the horizon? Possibly, but patience is key. This relative performance setup highlights the value of the gold/silver ratio in identifying potential silver entry points, whether for short-term trades or long-term positions.

At the Close

Monitor “spot” $GOLD and $SILVER by adding them to your ChartLists. However, you may be interested in entering trades using their ETF equivalents in GLD and SLV. The prices will differ from their spot price, but the chart patterns that define your entry will be highly correlated, given a few slight adjustments.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Mega-Caps Weakening, More Trouble Ahead

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The market declined heavily on Friday likely setting up for more downside ahead. We had already begun to notice that mega-cap stocks were beginning to weaken. You can see this on the relative strength line of the SPY versus equal-weight RSP. The relative strength line has been in decline. You’ll notice that when the mega-caps underperform, the market tends to as well.

A look at the Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) has been showing a declining trend all year long. We have flat bottoms and a declining tops trendline and that forms a bearish descending triangle. Not only is the chart pattern unfavorable, but so are the indicators. The RSI is now in negative territory and the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has topped beneath its signal line. Stochastics also look terrible as they decline in negative territory below net neutral (50). Relative strength against the SPY is also in decline.

Conclusion: The market is already in decline and it doesn’t appear there will be any help by the mega-caps, particularly the Magnificent Seven which are in decline overall based on MAGS ETF. The market struggles when these big guys don’t perform so we have downside pressure to add to an already weak looking SPY.

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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

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Market Rotation and Cap-Weight Dynamics: A Closer Look

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With the market selling off into the close today, it’s too early to write my usual “best five sectors” article. The risk of ranking changes is too high. I will make sure that an update will be posted before the markets open on Monday.

Instead, I want to build on this week’s RRG video analysis, where I examined the current strength of commodities and looked at growth, value, and size rotation.

You can see that video here.

Rotation Signals Commodities Springing Back to Life!

The synopsis of that analysis? Large-cap growth stocks are once again the preferred segment of the market. This underscores what’s happening right now — when the market is under pressure, investors usually flock to large-cap stocks. They’re familiar and supposedly less risky.

Cap-weighted vs Equal weight Sectors

Let’s dive deeper by comparing cap-weighted sectors with their equal-weighted counterparts. The two RRGs above illustrate these relationships. At first glance, most tails move in similar directions, though not necessarily in the same areas or quadrants. However, two sectors stand out in terms of divergent behavior: Staples and Financials.

RSPS (equal-weight Staples) has a short, southward-pointing tail inside the improving quadrant. On the other hand, XLP (cap-weighted Staples) is in the lagging quadrant but is picking up steam. For Financials, RSPF (equal-weight) weakens with a negative heading, while XLF (cap-weighted) rotates back towards the leading quadrant.

Cap-weighted vs Equal weight sectors on RRG

To simplify this analysis, I’ve created an RRG directly comparing cap-weighted to equal-weighted ETFs. This makes the trends crystal clear — cap-weighted sectors (dominated by large caps) are mostly moving with positive headings on the left side of the graph, either lagging or improving.

As our inputs are already ratios, we only want to know if that ratio is improving or deteriorating, so we use $one as the benchmark.

The Exceptions

There are a few notable exceptions to this trend:

Consumer Discretionary: A long tail moving from leading into weakening indicating.

Communication Services: Inside the leading quadrant but rolling over.

Technology: Just moved from leading to weakening.

For all three sectors, the dominant position of the larger names (mega caps) is fading and sector breadth is expanding.

These exceptions are particularly interesting because they represent some of the largest sectors in the market.

Large Cap vs Small Cap

Large- vs Small-Cap comparison on RRG

A similar exercise comparing large-cap and small-cap sectors reinforces the overall trend—large caps are generally outperforming. This comparison is even clearer, as these are real market CAO comparisons. In the first comparison above, there is only a weighting difference; all the stocks in these sectors are the same.

In this comparison, the constituents for the sectors are not the same, and they show the true difference between large- and small-cap stocks.

The only sector where small caps are about to take over is in Consumer Discretionary where we see a tail moving from leading towards, and almost crossing over into, weakening.

This aligns with the risk-off sentiment we’re seeing in the broader market.

S&P 500 Chart Analysis

To summarize, let’s examine the SPY chart. After hovering around this level for a few days, the market has tried—and failed—to break above 610 decisively. Friday saw a big down day, closing below the rising support line. This suggests more weakness ahead and underscores the expectation that the S&P 500 needs time to digest within a trading range.

What does that range look like? In my opinion, we’re probably looking at a lower boundary between 580 and 585 and an upper boundary between 610 and 615. The weekly chart still shows an intact uptrend, but it’s clear we need some sideways or corrective price action to digest the gains of the last year (or year and a half, depending on where you anchor the rally’s start).

The Big Picture

All in all, the overall uptrend in the S&P 500 remains intact. However, we need a bit more sideways or corrective price action to digest recent gains. Large caps generally outperform, with some interesting exceptions in mega-cap-dominated sectors.

As always in markets, it’s all relative — and right now, the relative strength favors the big boys.

#StayAlert and have a great weekend. –Julius

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