Archive

February 7, 2025

Browsing

The trading week started with investors worried about tariffs, but the 30-day delay of tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico shook off those worries. The three broad stock market indexes — S&P 500 ($SPX), Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) — closed higher. Then came the retaliation on US tariffs from China, but that didn’t do much damage to the market.

 Let’s face it; the stock market is headline-driven at the moment. Based on the news, investors may favor healthcare stocks one day and tech stocks the next. For individual investors, playing the sector musical chair game makes for a difficult investment environment. So, instead of getting caught up in catching the right sector at the right time, it’s best to focus on the big picture and look at the longer-term trends and patterns. One way to do this is to examine the performance of different sectors, industry groups, and indices through the Bullish Percent Index (BPI).


StockCharts Tip: If you haven’t done so, download the Essentials ChartPack (Charts & Tools tab > ChartPacks). The Market & Index Bullish Percent Indexes list has seven charts in the ChartList (see below).


FIGURE 1. DOWNLOADING CHARTPACKS. From the Charts & Tools tab, select ChartPacks to download the Essentials ChartPack.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

You could add more charts to the list. For example, I use a BPI ChartList each day to determine which sectors are bullish, overbought, or oversold. The image below displays some of the charts in my BPI ChartList.

FIGURE 2. VIEWING THE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX (BPI) CHARTLIST. The Summary view helps to see which sectors are bullish, bearish, overbought, or oversold.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Viewing the ChartList in the Summary view helps to identify if the BPI is bullish, bearish, overbought, or oversold. You can also identify which sectors had the biggest changes for the day.

In the above image, the S&P Financial Sector BPI was the only one above 70, and Consumer Staples Sector BPI or $BPSTAP (not visible in the image; you’ll have to scroll to the next page) was the only one below 30.

Which Sectors Are Feeling the Love?

On Wednesday, the Predefined Alerts panel flashed that the Consumer Staples Sector BPI crossed above 30. This was a bull alert trigger warranting a closer look.

The chart below displays $BPSTAP with the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP).

FIGURE 3. CONSUMER STAPLES BPI VS. CONSUMER STAPLES SELECT SPDR ETF (XLP). The BPI for the Consumer Staples Sector has crossed above 30, which is a bull alert trigger. The XLP chart still has to confirm a bullish move.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Although the $BPSTAP has crossed above 30, the XLP chart doesn’t display a bullish trend. Given that inflation is a big concern among US consumers, it’s worth monitoring the Consumer Staples sector for a chance to buy some stocks.

We posted an article on three stocks in the Consumer Staples sector, focused on Walmart, Inc. (WMT), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), and Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM). These stocks are still looking strong, but come with a high price tag. So, instead of purchasing the stock outright, I decided to explore options strategies for these stocks.

Options To the Rescue

After analyzing all three stocks using the Options tool (see image below), I considered a call vertical spread on COST and WMT. SFM wasn’t under consideration since it had a low-scoring strategy.

  • COST had an OptionsPlay score of 108. The call vertical trade would cost me $4,250 with an 182.35% potential return.
  • WMT had an OptionsPlay score of 106. The trade would cost me $508 with a 172.05% potential return.

WMT was the lower-risk play, so I placed the April 17 100/115 call vertical, a strategy displayed in the OptionsPlay Explorer tool, with my broker (see image below). I got filled at a price slightly higher than $508 due to price fluctuations and broker fees.

FIGURE 4. OPTIONSPLAY EXPLORER DISPLAYS THREE OPTIMAL TRADES FOR WMT. The April 17 100/115 call vertical was the most optimal trade with a good risk/reward tradeoff. Image source: OptionsPlay Add-on at StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Closing Position

There are 71 days till expiry. If WMT closes above $105.08 the trade will be profitable. The target price is $113.82.

There’s a 38.89% probability of the stock closing above $105.08 by expiration, all else equal. I’ll monitor the position and, if the price target is reached, I will close my position. Another point to keep in mind is that WMT reports earnings on February 20 before the market opens. Volatility will likely increase around that time and could significantly move the stock price in either direction.

Quantum computing is an emerging technology that has the potential to revolutionize many industries.

According to a late 2021 Statista forecast, the quantum computing market’s total revenue is projected to reach US$8.6 billion by 2027. To put that into perspective, the industry was worth only US$412 million in 2020.

In this article

    What is quantum computing?

    In simple terms, quantum computing is a form of computing that harnesses the principles of quantum mechanics to process information. Unlike traditional computing, quantum computing does not use binary digits (either 0 or 1), or bits. Instead, quantum computing is based on qubits, which can represent much more information than bits can.

    Qubits can be both a 0 and a 1 simultaneously, which allows quantum computers to calculate larger datasets much faster than traditional computers.

    Quantum computers can also explore several possible solutions at once. This gives them a distinct advantage in solving problems related to optimization, cryptography, machine learning and financial modeling. In addition, quantum computers have promising applications in chemistry and material science. For example, quantum computing can simulate how a chemical compound might react in various scenarios.

    How does quantum computing work?

    Quantum computing is based on the principles of superposition and entanglement. In quantum mechanics, superposition describes the ability of a system to remain in multiple states at the same time until it is measured. Measurement in this context refers to any interaction between qubits and an external system, such as a detector or sensor, that would cause the qubits to collapse from multiple states to a single state.

    To understand the concept of superposition, it’s useful to imagine a coin spinning on its edge. When a coin is spinning, it is said to be in a state of superposition, meaning it is not defined as either heads or tails. However, if the coin is bumped or disturbed in any way, it will stop spinning and will end up displaying either heads or tails. In this analogy, the coin would be the qubits and the measurement would be whatever caused the coin to stop spinning.

    Qubits are sensitive to interference from their environment and are usually stored at very low temperatures in computing devices to protect them from influences such as temperature fluctuations, electromagnetic fields and other particles.

    For its part, entanglement describes a deep connection between two qubits, where the state of one qubit is directly dependent on the other qubit, no matter the distance between the two.

    There are two key properties of entanglement that all applications derived from it depend on. The first one, the Monogamy of Entanglement, states that entanglement between two qubits cannot be shared with a third. The second property of entanglement is called Maximal Coordination — it posits that the quantum state of a system is a combination of all the possible states that the system could be in, and that each state is measured by its probability.

    Maximal Coordination is an important feature of quantum mechanics that sets it apart from classical physics, and is what allows quantum computer systems to exhibit superposition and entanglement.

    What are the main uses of quantum computing?

    Quantum computing can be used in a wide range of industries, including finance, pharmaceuticals and logistics. For example, quantum computers could optimize stock portfolios, develop new drugs more quickly or improve supply chain management.

    Quantum computing has been applied to developing machine-learning algorithms as well, a realm that is still in relatively early stages of development and is brimming with potential for groundbreaking advancements.

    Two quantum algorithms that have already contributed greatly to the field of machine learning are Grover’s Algorithm, which can yield unstructured search results faster and improve pattern recognition in machines; and the Quantum Fourier Transform algorithm, which has properties that make it instrumental for understanding temporal dynamics, giving it a distinct edge for applications such as market trend analysis, weather forecasting and language recognition.

    Quantum computing, together with artificial intelligence, will undoubtedly catalyze the development of solutions to some of the world’s most complex problems. However, like many emerging technologies, the unique properties that make quantum computing such a promising field also present challenges and risks.

    Some experts have pointed out that quantum computers have the potential to break most encryption techniques that are currently used for cybersecurity. As quantum computers become more powerful, encryption techniques will need to be replaced with newer quantum-resistant alternatives.

    Dr. Michele Mosca from the University of Waterloo’s Institute for Quantum Computing argues that these concerns present an opportunity to establish stronger and more resilient security foundations for the digital economy. Staying one step ahead of the ever-evolving landscape of cybersecurity threats will be crucial.

    In response to these threat to cybersecurity, the Biden administration signed the Quantum Computing and Cybersecurity Preparedness Act into law in 2022. It requires federal agencies to adopt adequate defenses against quantum-computing-enabled attacks and migrate systems to post-quantum cryptography.

    For further information on how AI and quantum computing could affect cybersecurity, read our 2025 Cybersecurity Forecast.

    New developments in the quantum race

    Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google, a leader in quantum computing research since 2014 and the first to claim quantum supremacy in 2019, achieved a breakthrough with its Willow quantum processor at the end of 2024 when it demonstrated significantly improved error correction and scalability in quantum computing.

    To demonstrate Willow’s capabilities, Google performed a benchmark test called “random circuit sampling,” which Willow completed in under 5 minutes. It was estimated that it would take a classical supercomputer approximately 10 septillion years to complete the same task.

    Google’s quantum computer development roadmap includes six steps, and the company claims that its latest chip has advanced it to stage three.

    This development also brought the possibility of potentially breaking current encryption methods closer to reality and underscored the urgency of developing and implementing quantum-resistant solutions.

    The Willow news led to runs in quantum computing stocks, but the sector has also experienced a great deal of volatility as traders grapple with mixed messages from tech experts, who soon weighed in on how far practical applications for quantum computing were from reality.

    At the Consumer Electronics Show in January 2025, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang posited that the technology was likely 15 to 30 years away from being used in any sort of practical capacity.

    While Huang’s comments led to a drop in the quantum computing stocks that had previously been on the rise, they saw a resurgence when Nvidia and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) both shared updates related to their quantum computing efforts less than one week later.

    Nvidia announced on January 14 that the company would host a Quantum Computing Day — the company’s first — at its GPU Technology Conference in March. That same day, Microsoft published a blog post titled “The Year to Become Quantum Ready,” sharing the progress the company had made toward fault-tolerant quantum computing with Atom Computing and the launch of its Quantum Ready Program, an initiative to get businesses ready for the potential impact of quantum computing.

    How to invest in quantum computing companies

    For those wondering how to invest in quantum computing, the major tech firms discussed below offer an entry point, as do venture capital funds invested in private quantum computing companies. Accredited investors can purchase pre-IPO shares in privately held companies via online investment platforms such as Hive and EquityZen.

    Major quantum computing stocks

    Some of the biggest names in tech are also the foremost quantum computing stocks, including IBM (NYSE:IBM), Alphabet and Microsoft, and there are startups in the space as well.

    IBM has by far one of the largest and most diverse portfolios of quantum computing services and products. Its Quantum Computing Division offers over 100 qubit devices, and the company has a large quantum data center in New York. In October 2024, IBM brought quantum resources to Europe with the completion of its data center in Ehningen, Germany.

    IBM is known for developing the first commercially available quantum computer, IBM Quantum System One, in January 2019. In December 2023, the company announced the development of a newer model, IBM Quantum System Two, which is powered by three Heron chips, each one containing 133 qubits. Quantum System Two is designed to be modular and scalable to accommodate any future advancements made in quantum computing.

    Furthermore, IBM offers a software development kit called Qiskit, which is an open-source suite of software products that programmers can use to design their own algorithms and run simulations on classic computers before being executed on quantum computers. Qiskit is based on the Python programming language, making it accessible to anyone interested in learning. The newest version, Qiskit 1.3, was released in December 2024.

    In addition to these developments, IBM has several ambitious projects in quantum computing on its roadmap, and the company has an online platform, the Quantum Network, that gives users access to its cloud-based quantum computing services. In April 2023, EY Global Services joined the network to streamline and enhance its research capabilities.

    Google is another big name in tech that’s engaged in quantum computing. Its Quantum AI has been working to develop processors and algorithms since 2014, and claims to have been the first to achieve quantum supremacy with its quantum computer in 2019. In December 2024, Google achieved a breakthrough with its Willow quantum processor when it demonstrated significantly improved error correction and scalability in quantum computing. The company’s open-source framework, Cirq, allows users to write, manipulate, optimize and run quantum circuits on quantum computers and simulators.

    The announcement from Google caused a surge in small- and mid-cap quantum computing stocks in December. Shares of D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS) and IonQ (NYSE:IONQ) saw large gains at 92 and 34 percent respectively. Quantum Computing (NASDAQ:QUBT) had the most impressive stock surge, rising nearly 195 percent in the 10 days following the announcement. On January 7, Quantum Computing announced that it had received two more orders for its TFLN photonic chips, marking the successful completion of its 2024 pilot launch program.

    Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) is also on the rise, up nearly 1,000 percent year-over-year. After getting a bump from Google’s announcement, Rigetti’s stock rose rapidly in late December on the news that the company had launched an 84-qubit Ankaa-3 system and partnered with Quantum Machines to calibrate a quantum computer at the “AI for Quantum Calibration Challenge” hosted at the Israeli Quantum Computing Center.

    Microsoft has also made strides in quantum computing. Azure Quantum, a component of the company’s cloud-computing service, Azure, offers resources for users who want to learn more about quantum computing, including a development kit that can be used to custom-build quantum applications. Its chatbot, a quantum-focused version of Copilot, Microsoft’s AI-powered assistant, can explain unfamiliar concepts and help users navigate the world of quantum computing more easily.

    On top of that, the company has been heavily researching ways to build a scaled quantum supercomputer. In May 2023, Microsoft researchers achieved a significant milestone when they successfully created a new type of qubit that can make quantum computers more error-resistant and stable. This represents a huge breakthrough in quantum computing and physics, and Microsoft’s journey to this achievement was detailed in the June 2023 issue of Physical Review B.

    Quantum computing startups

    As eager as the major tech companies are to advance the field of quantum computing, they are not alone. Several smaller startups have emerged throughout Europe, North America and Australia, including Q-Ctrl, Multiverse Computing, Universal Quantum, 1QBit and QC Ware, all of which are striving toward accessible quantum computing solutions.

    Quantinuum, one of the leading quantum computing companies, is a spinout of Honeywell International (NASDAQ:HON) formed through a merger of Honeywell Quantum Solutions and Cambridge Quantum in November 2021. The company received significant support in early 2024 when JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) led a group of investors in a US$300 million funding round.

    The investment firm has been a longstanding supporter of the computing business, and has worked with Quantinuum and its predecessor companies since 2020. JPMorgan Chase may be hoping to reap the benefits that quantum computing offers the financial industry. A Bank Underground blog post highlights the “high-level changes” coming to payment systems, including the enabling of more efficient payment systems and smart contracts.

    More recently, PsiQuantum, a private startup firm with an estimated valuation of US$3.1 billion, announced a partnership with the state of Illinois to build the largest US facility conducive to quantum computing. The California-based company is seeking to house a quantum computer containing up to 1 million qubits within the next decade. According to MIT, currently the largest quantum computers host around 1,000 qubits. Some of the company’s most notable investors are hedge fund manager Blackrock (NYSE:BLK) and Microsoft. There’s no date yet set for an initial public offering (IPO) for PsiQuantum.

    Quantum computing ETFs

    Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer another avenue for investing in the emerging quantum computer sector.

    There is currently just one pure-play quantum computing ETF: Defiance Quantum ETF (NASDAQ:QTUM), which tracks companies developing and commercializing quantum computing applications and other advanced technologies. QTUM’s great performance is indicated in its yearly returns, up 48.26 percent as of January 15, 2025.

    QTUM holds 72 companies, and its top holdings by weight are Onto Innovation (NYSE:ONTO) at a weight of 1.7 percent, Teradyne (NASDAQ:TER) at 1.65 percent, KLA (NASDAQ:KLAC) at 1.58 percent and Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) at 1.54 percent.

    Investor takeaway

    Quantum computing is still in the early stages. However, as quantum computing continues to advance, investors considering getting exposure to this emerging technology will be able to choose between companies that are actively researching and developing quantum computing technology, as well as companies that are positioned to benefit from the adoption of quantum computing in their industries.

    Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

    This post appeared first on investingnews.com

    With Bitcoin and other digital stores of wealth gaining popularity, Bitcoin mining stocks offer another investment opportunity for those who believe in the future of this technology.

    Although the cryptocurrency market is marked by high volatility, analysts such as Peter Eberle, president and CEO of Castle Analytics, believe it could be a rewarding sector for investors this year and next.

    “The incoming pro-crypto Trump White House has given a lot of confidence to investors, both institutional and retail, and this should reduce the uncertainty that has held many investors back from the sector,’ he continued. ‘Both Canadian and US crypto investors should see the benefits from this confidence in the asset class.’

    Bitcoin set a new all-time high price of US$103,697 on December 4, 2024, and is trading above US$97,644 as of February 4, 2025.

    The global cryptocurrency-mining market is forecast to reach nearly US$8.24 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 12.9 percent between 2024 and 2034.

    “The industry is expanding primarily because of the development of distributed ledger technologies and an increase in electronic venture capital investment,” notes Precedence Research. “Digital currency is now being used by developing nations as a means of financial transactions.”

    US cryptocurrency stocks

    1. MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA)

    Company Profile

    Market cap: US$5.99 billion

    MARA Holdings, previously Marathon Digital Holdings, was one of the first cryptocurrency-mining companies to begin trading on the NASDAQ. The digital assets company is focused on building North America’s largest and lowest-cost mining operation.

    In its Q3 2024 financial and operational report, MARA shared that its hash rate for the quarter increased by 93 percent year-over-year to 36.9 exahashes per second (EH/s) and that its Bitcoin production came in at 2,070 Bitcoin. With the price of Bitcoin spiking more than 116 percent compared to the same quarter in the previous year, this helped the company’s revenues shoot up by 35 percent to US$132 million.

    2. Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT)

    Company Profile

    Market cap: US$4.23 billion

    Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms is another one of the relatively few crypto mining companies trading on the NASDAQ. In addition to mining Bitcoin itself, the company has multiple subsidiaries working in different aspects of the business, including one that hosts Bitcoin-mining equipment for clients.

    In the third quarter of 2024, Riot’s Bitcoin production came in at 1,104 Bitcoin, in line with the figure it produced for the same quarter in the previous year, despite the halving event in April. However, robust gains in the price of Bitcoin still allowed for an increase in total revenues year over year, coming in at US$84.8 million, up 65 percent compared to the same quarter in 2023.

    3. Cipher Mining (NASDAQ:CIFR)

    Company Profile

    Market cap: US$2.02 billion

    Cipher Mining operates an industrial-scale ecosystem of Bitcoin-mining data centers, offering Bitcoin-mining services to customers worldwide.

    The company’s total self-mining capacity goal of 13.5 EH/s was reached in December 2024. Cipher plans to expand further to approximately 25.1 EH/s by the end of 2025. In Cipher’s Q3 2024 report, the company shared that it saw revenue of US$24.1 million during the quarter, down 20.5 percent year-over-year. Its assets included 95,459 Bitcoin at that time, up significantly from 32,978 Bitcoin at the end of 2023.

    Canadian cryptocurrency-mining stocks

    1. Hut 8 Mining (TSX:HUT)

    Company Profile

    Market cap: C$2.95 billion

    Hut 8 Mining is one of the largest Bitcoin and Ethereum mining companies in the world. It has more than 1,322 megawatts of existing power capacity; 10 Bitcoin mining, hosting, and managed services facilities; and five high performance computing data centers.

    As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, the company’s self-mined Bitcoin held in revenue stock stood at 9,106. Hut 8 mined 234 Bitcoin in the quarter, down 65 percent from its output in the same period last year as it had shut down its Drumheller, Alberta, site over high energy costs. However, revenue reached US$43.7 million, up by more than 103 percent year over year.

    2. Bitfarms (TSX:BITF)

    Company Profile

    Market cap: C$1.03 billion

    Blockchain infrastructure firm Bitfarms is one of the largest cryptocurrency-mining operators in the Americas. The firm has 13 Bitcoin mining facilities across Canada, the US, Paraguay and Argentina.

    In its third quarter 2024 report, Bitfarms highlighted total revenue of US$45 million, up 30 percent year over year. As of late January 2025, the company had a hashrate of 15.2 EH/s, up from 7 EH/s in mid-May 2024. Management believes Bitfarms is on track to achieve a hashrate of 21 EH/s this year.

    After receiving an unsolicited takeover bid from Riot Platforms and competing ones from other companies in H1 2024, Bitfarms began conducting a strategic review to determine the best path forward for its shareholders.

    3. HIVE Digital Technologies (TSXV:HIVE)

    Company Profile

    Market cap: C$547.14 million

    Mining digital assets such as Ethereum, Ethereum Classic and Bitcoin, HIVE Digital Technologies is a crypto mining company that operates mining facilities in Sweden, Canada and Iceland. The company was the first publicly traded cryptocurrency miner, listing on the TSX Venture Exchange in 2017.

    HIVE reported in early January that its Bitcoin holdings stand at 2,805 Bitcoin. As of the end of December 2024, the company reached 6.0 EH/s of operational hashrate, up 47 percent from 4.08 EH/s on December 31, 2023.

    Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

    This post appeared first on investingnews.com

    The world’s population is increasing rapidly and is expected to reach over 9.7 billion by 2050.

    This situation is creating positive fundamentals for the agricultural sector, including the potash market. A larger population means much higher amounts of food will be needed; however, with more people will come further urbanization and less farmland with which to work, meaning farmers will have no choice but to increase crop yields.

    That’s where fertilizers like potash come in. Unsurprisingly, many investors are wondering what potash is and how they can gain exposure to the potash market. Read on to find out more about potash investing, and whether it may fit into your portfolio.

    In this article

      What is potash?

      Potash is a term that refers to compounds and minerals that contain potassium salts. It is naturally white or colorless, but ore sometimes takes on a pink or red color due to impurities such as clay. Most potash comes from salt left over from ancient evaporated seas that lie underground.

      There are several different types of potash, including sulfate of potash (SOP) and muriate of potash (MOP), which contain potassium sulfate and potassium chloride respectively.

      What is potash used for?

      Potash is most commonly used in fertilizers. All in all, 95 percent of the world’s potash supply is used to grow food. Potash fertilizer not only provides essential nutrients to food, but also improves water retention in plants and strengthens their roots and stems.

      SOP is used on high-value crops, such as a variety of fruits and vegetables, nuts, tea, coffee and tobacco, and is seen as premium quality. MOP is more common, and is typically used on vegetables such as sugar beets, celery and Swiss chard.

      Potash supply trends

      According to the US Geological Survey’s latest data on potash, global potash production came in at 48 million metric tons (MT) in 2024 and consumption totaled 38.8 million MT. The potash sector is suffering from oversupply, and that has created lower prices and put pressure on potash producers.

      The potash market has faced volatility in recent years, particularly from geopolitical conflicts. The agency estimates that in 2022 potash fertilizer demand decreased to between 35 to 39 million tons from 40.6 million tons in 2021 as a result of the Russian-Ukraine war.

      Canada stands out as the top potash-producing country with output of 15 million MT in 2024, the vast majority of which was from the province of Saskatchewan.

      Russia is the world’s second largest potash producer, with output of 9 million MT in 2024. Reclaiming its spot as the third largest producer, Belarus’ potash output rose to 7 million MT in 2024. It had fallen significantly in the prior two years, and it ranked at fourth place in 2023 with production of 4.5 million MT.

      Russia’s war in Ukraine and its use of Belarus as a staging ground have led to export sanctions on the two countries, which prior to 2022 accounted for a combined 40 percent of global potash supply. In 2024, that figure was 33 percent.

      All eyes will be on the Canadian potash market in 2025 as US President Donald Trump has threatened up to 25 percent tariffs on all goods imported from Canada into the United States. While he delayed the tariffs by one month in early February, it remains to be seen whether they’ll ultimately still be enacted.

      Tariffs on Canadian potash would likely result in higher costs for US farmers and consumers at the grocery store, as Canada represents more than 86 percent of annual US potash imports, according to Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX.

      Potash demand trends

      Potash demand is expected to climb in the coming years. Precedence Research expects the world’s potash market to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.93 percent between 2024 and 2033 to reach US$97.15 billion.

      The firm’s analysts attribute this stable growth in potash demand to increasing levels of economic development and rising per capita food consumption as the world’s population continues to rise.

      “The demand for potash is significantly influenced by emerging economies such as China, India, and Brazil, which have sizable agricultural industries,” the report states.

      Population growth is subsequently leading to increased urbanization and less available agricultural land. Other demand side trends for potash include the growth in sustainable agricultural practices and technological advances in agricultural science like genetically modified crops and precision farming.

      In terms of regional demand, Asia Pacific represents the largest market share coming in at 38 percent in 2023. Governments in the region are enacting policies and subsidies to encourage potash use among farmers in order to generate higher crop yields to feed growing populations.

      The North American market is expected to experience the most rapid growth over the forecast period, with a CAGR of 5.11 percent. In this region, potash is a necessary component for sustained agricultural output as many areas of the continent have nutrient-deficient soils.

      How to invest in potash

      For investors interested in the potash space and encouraged by its outlook, there are a number of entry points for investing in the potash market, including potash stocks and potash ETFs. We take a look at both ways to invest in potash below. All data and information was current as of January 30, 2025.

      Potash stocks

      There are many potash stocks to consider, so it’s important to do your research. There are a number of publicly traded mining companies with shares listed on major exchanges including the TSX, ASX and the NYSE. Investors often choose to begin with large producers in the potash sector. All stocks discussed below had market caps above $5 million in their respective currencies at the time data was collected.

      Major potash mining stocks

      BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP)
      BHP is a multinational diversified mining company developing the Jansen potash mine in Saskatchewan. It is set to come online in late 2026, and expected to produce 8.5 million metric tons of potash annually.

      Compass Minerals International (NYSE:CMP)
      Compass Minerals is a leading producer of SOP in North America. Its SOP plant is located in Wynyard, Saskatchewan, and it produces SOP using large-scale solar evaporation at its Ogden operations in Utah’s Great Salt Lake.

      ICL Group (NYSE:ICL)
      Israel Chemicals Limited (ICL) Group is a multinational specialty minerals and chemicals company focused on potash, phosphate and advanced specialty fertilizers. The company produces potash from its mines in Israel and Spain.

      Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI)
      Intrepid Potash is the only producer of MOP in the United States. It operates an underground mine and a solar evaporation mine in Carlsbad, New Mexico, as well as solar evaporation mines in Wendover and Moab, Utah.

      K+S Aktiengesellschaft (OTCQX:KPLUF,ETR:SDF)
      K+S is a Germany-based chemical company and the leading potash supplier in Europe. The company also has production facilities in North America and South America.

      Mosaic (NYSE:MOS)
      Mosaic is an American chemical company which produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company’s North America Business is responsible for approximately 34 percent of estimated annual potash production on the continent, and its Belle Plaine mine in Saskatchewan is one of the largest-producing potash solution mines in the world.

      Nutrien (TSX:NTR,NYSE:NTR)
      Nutrien is Canada’s biggest potash company by far, formed through a merger of Agrium and PotashCorp. The company has a potash production capacity of over 27 million MT from its six potash mines in Saskatchewan.

      Junior potash mining stocks

      Agrimin (ASX:AMN)
      Agrimin is developing its Mackay project in Western Australia, which it says will be shovel ready in 2025. According to the company, the Mackay project contains the world’s largest known undeveloped mineral resources of brine-hosted SOP.

      Gensource Potash (TSXV:GSP)
      Gensource Potash is developing the Tugaske project in Saskatchewan. Once in operation, the company estimates it will produce a minimum of 250,000 MT of MOP per year.

      Highfield Resources (ASX:HFR)
      Highfield Resources is advancing on its near-term production stage Muga MOP project in Spain. The project is expected to produce more than 1 million MT of MOP per year.

      Karnalyte Resources (TSX:KRN)
      Karnalyte Resources is an advanced development-stage company focused on its construction-ready Wynyard potash project in Central Saskatchewan.

      Sage Potash (TSXV:SAGE,OTCQB:SGPTF)
      Sage Potash is developing its flagship project the Sage Plain potash property in the Paradox Basin of the US state of Utah. Once in operation, the project is estimated to produce 150,000 MT of potash annually, with plans to expand.

      Verde AgriTech (TSX:NPK,OTCQB:AMHPF)
      Verde AgriTech is an agri-tech company focused on making innovative products that promote sustainable agriculture. Its main asset is Cerrado Verde, which holds Brazil’s largest identified potash deposit, with an NI 43-101 resource of 3.32 billion MT.

      Western Resources (TSX:WRX)
      Western Potash, a subsidiary of Western Resources, is developing a potash solution mine at its Milestone project in Saskatchewan focused on MOP production. Milestone is close to Mosaic’s Belle Plaine mine.

      Potash ETFs

      Those who want more broad exposure may want to buy shares of an exchange-traded fund that includes potash stocks. Here are a few to get you started.

      VanEck Agribusiness ETF (ARCA:MOO)
      VanEck Agribusiness ETF follows the price and yield performance of the MVIS Global Agribusiness Index (MVMOOTR), which tracks the overall performance of companies involved in many areas of agribusiness, including agri-chemicals and fertilizers. The fund’s top holdings include Nutrien and Mosaic.

      IShares MCSI Agriculture Producers ETF (ARCA:VEGI)
      IShares MCSI Agricultural Producers tracks the investment results of an index composed of global equities of agribusiness companies, including fertilizer producers. Nutrien, Mosaic and ICL Group are among the fund’s top holdings.

      IShares Global Agriculture Index ETF (TSX:COW)
      IShares Global Agriculture Index ETF seeks to replicate the performance of the Manulife Investment Management Global Agriculture Index. Its top holdings include Nutrien, Mosaic, Intrepid Potash and ICL Group.

      Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

      This post appeared first on investingnews.com

      Critical minerals company Almonty Industries (TSX:AII,ASX:AII,OTCQX:ALMTF) said on January 29 that it has entered into an exclusive offtake deal with South Korean molybdenum processor SeAH M&S.

      Under the deal, SeAH will purchase 100 percent of the material produced from Almonty’s Sangdong molybdenum project for the asset’s entire life. Located in Korea, Sangdong is expected to start producing in 2026.

      SeAH is South Korea’s largest processor of molybdenum products, as well as the second largest molybdenum oxide smelter in the world. The company is building a US$110 million metals and fabrication facility in Temple, Texas, that will provide fabricated metal products to SpaceX, the Elon Musk-led rocket and spacecraft company.

      Sangdong is being developed by Almonty’s subsidiary, Almonty Korea Moly, with mining and environmental permits already in place. It is expected to produce about 5,600 metric tons of molybdenum annually over a 60 year life.

      “This agreement underscores the strategic importance of (Almonty Korea Moly) and reflects strong confidence in Almonty’s ability to deliver high-quality resources,” said Almonty CEO Lewis Black in a press release.

      Pricing is set at a minimum of US$19 per pound, based on the current molybdenum price of approximately US$22. Almonty said this level will ensure financial stability and a predictable revenue base as it advances Sangdong.

      “The floor price provides a stable foundation and access to low-rate domestic construction lending as we advance our moly project, while keeping the material in South Korea strengthens local supply chains and supports domestic industry,’ noted Black. He added that it builds on the success of the company’s Sangdong tungsten project.

      The Sangdong molybdenum project sits about 150 meters from the Sangdong tungsten project, which according to Almonty will allow enhance logistical efficiency, reduce costs and leverage shared infrastructure and expertise.

      The company also emphasized that the offtake will benefit South Korea’s domestic supply chain.

      Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

      This post appeared first on investingnews.com

      Former North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum took the oath of office to become the 55th US secretary of the interior on Saturday (February 1), vowing to prioritize domestic energy expansion, particularly in Alaska.

      On his first day in office, Burgum wasted no time in advancing the administration’s energy agenda, signing six Secretary’s Orders designed to bolster US energy independence and expand resource development, particularly in Alaska.

      “Today marks the beginning of an exciting chapter for the Department of the Interior,” Burgum said in a Monday (February 3) press release. “We are committed to working collaboratively to unlock America’s full potential in energy dominance and economic development to make life more affordable for every American family while showing the world the power of America’s natural resources and innovation.”

      His swift actions align with the Trump administration’s revitalized efforts to reverse environmental and regulatory policies enacted under Joe Biden. Among the most consequential of his directives is Secretary’s Order 3422, which implements Executive Order 14153, titled “Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential.”

      This order prioritizes resource extraction in Alaska, and rescinds previous restrictions that limited oil, gas and mineral production in the state. Specifically, Secretary’s Order 3422 directs the Department of the Interior to maximize natural resource production on both federal and state lands in Alaska. This includes oil and gas extraction and timber harvesting.

      A key component of this shift is the revocation of Secretary’s Order 3401, which was issued in June 2021. It placed a temporary moratorium on activities in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leasing Program.

      The new order reinstates Secretary’s Order 3352, originally issued in May 2017, which prioritized energy development in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A). The reversal means that federal agencies must immediately reevaluate existing restrictions on leasing and permitting for oil and gas extraction in Alaska.

      Additionally, Burgum’s order requires a review of all punitive restrictions that have hindered energy development in the state. Agencies must submit plans within 15 days outlining how they will execute the administration’s energy goals.

      By reinstating Secretary’s Order 3352, the interior department is once again prioritizing the NPR-A for oil and gas leasing. The NPR-A is one of the largest oil-rich federal land reserves in the US, containing an estimated 8.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 25 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, according to government assessments.

      Burgum’s order also emphasizes Alaska’s potential as a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) hub. The order includes provisions for fast-tracking pipeline infrastructure and transportation networks to support the state’s LNG industry.

      To facilitate these efforts, the order mandates expediting the permitting and leasing process for new energy and natural resource projects in Alaska, and prioritizing infrastructure projects that are necessary for transporting resources.

      The directive is expected to accelerate investments in Alaska’s energy sector, encouraging private companies to expand operations in the North Slope, the Cook Inlet and offshore areas.

      Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

      This post appeared first on investingnews.com

      US officials kept around 100 deported Indian migrants in shackles for their 40-hour flight home, including during bathroom breaks, in the latest incident to spark anger overseas at President Donald Trump’s migration crackdown.

      Indian lawmakers demonstrated outside parliament on Thursday, some wearing shackles and others mocking the much-touted friendship between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

      Elsewhere in New Delhi, members of the youth wing of India’s main opposition party burned an effigy of Trump.

      Last month, the spectacle of Colombian deportees being shackled as they boarded a US deportation flight sparked a bitter dispute between the two countries, with Colombian president Gustavo Petro initially refusing the military plane permission to land.

      The anger in India comes days ahead of an expected visit by Modi to meet Trump – whom he has called a “true friend” – at the White House.

      S. Kuldeep Singh Dhaliwal, a government minister in the western state of Punjab, where the deportation flight landed, urged Modi to “now use his friendship to resolve the issue.”

      Dhaliwal also questioned “the usefulness of this friendship if it cannot help Indian citizens in need,” his office said in a statement.

      The flight to India was the longest in distance since the Trump administration began deploying military aircraft for migrant deportations, according to a US official.

      “Our hands were cuffed and ankles tied with chains before we took the flight,” said 23-year-old Akashdeep Singh, who arrived in Punjab on Wednesday with 103 other deportees.

      “We requested the military officials to take it off to eat or go to the bathroom but they treated us horribly and without any regard whatsoever,” Singh added.

      “The way they looked at us, I’ll never forget it… We went to the bathroom with the shackles on. Right before landing, they removed (the shackles) for the women. We saw it. For us, they were removed after we landed by the local police officials.”

      US Border Patrol Chief Michael W. Banks posted a video of the Indian deportees being put onto a plane on X. In the video, shackles are seen on the wrists and ankles of several men who shuffle slowly up the ramp.

      ‘Better life, better future’

      Deportee Sukhpal Singh, 35, also said the shackles were kept on throughout the flight, including during a refueling stopover on the Pacific island of Guam.

      “They treated us like criminals,” he said. “If we would try to stand because our legs were swelling due to the handcuffs they would yell at us to sit down.”

      Young Indians looking for work opportunities have made up a sizeable portion of undocumented migrants in the US, many after making the dangerous trek through Latin America to reach the US southern border.

      Many say they see no future at home where a jobs crisis is stifling young hopes in the world’s most populous country.

      In just four years, the number of Indian citizens entering the US illegally has surged dramatically — from 8,027 in the 2018-19 fiscal year to 96,917 during 2022-23, government data showed.

      “I had gone for work, for better life, for a better future,” said Sukhpal Singh, who has a son and daughter and hoped to better provide for them by getting a job in the US.

      “You see it in movies and you hear from people around you that there’s work there and people are successful there so that’s why I also wanted to go.”

      This post appeared first on cnn.com

      Donald Trump has begun his second term as president by ramping up pressure on Panama – threatening to “take back” the Panama Canal and accusing the country of ceding control of the critical waterway to a US rival: China.

      “Above all, China is operating the Panama Canal. And we didn’t give it to China. We gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back,” Trump claimed in his inaugural speech last month.

      There’s no evidence that China controls the canal, which is run by an independent authority appointed by Panama’s government. Beijing has repeatedly denied that it has interfered in canal operations.

      But the US concern comes as the Trump White House seeks to shore up national security, especially in its own neighborhood, and win an economic competition with China.

      At the heart of Trump’s contentions are a Hong Kong-based company that operates two key ports at either end of the 50-mile long waterway – and broader concerns about Beijing’s expanding influence in a region of the world where the US has long been the dominant power.

      Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino has said Panama’s sovereignty over the canal was not up for debate, but the country has made other concessions to US pressure.

      Following a meeting with top US diplomat Marco Rubio last Sunday, Mulino said Panama would exit China’s Belt and Road infrastructure drive – a blow for Beijing, which had celebrated Panama as the first country in Latin America to join the program.

      Panamanian officials last month also launched an audit of the Hong Kong-owned firm that operates two ports at either end the canal.

      Chinese companies have become increasingly caught in the crosshairs of Washington’s national security concerns. Chinese-owned app TikTok and telecoms giant Huawei have been among private firms facing intense scrutiny in Washington over concerns that they are ultimately beholden to Beijing, despite their denials.

      Here’s what to know about China’s involvement in the strategic channel.

      Does China have a presence in the Panama Canal?

      The Trump administration’s key concern is found at either end of the waterway, where two of the five ports that service the canal are operated by Panama Ports Company (PPC), part of a port operator owned by Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings.

      Based in a gleaming skyscraper in downtown Hong Kong, CK Hutchison is a publicly listed company and one of the world’s largest port operators, overseeing 53 ports in 24 countries, according to the company. It was first granted the concession over the two Panama Canal ports in 1997 when Panama and the US jointly administered the canal. That concession was renewed in 2021 for another 25 years.

      Rubio ahead of his visit to Panama said Hong Kong-based companies “having control over the entry and exit points” of the canal is “completely unacceptable.”

      Hong Kong, which came under Chinese control in 1997, is meant to have a high level of autonomy from mainland China, but Beijing has dramatically tightened its grip on the city in recent years following widespread pro-democracy protests.

      “If there’s a conflict and China tells them, do everything you can to obstruct the canal so that the US can’t engage in trade and commerce, so that the US military and naval fleet cannot get to the Indo-Pacific fast enough, they would have to do it,” Rubio said in an interview with journalist Megyn Kelly, without directly naming the company.

      The Hong Kong-owned operator PPC, however, does not control access to the Panama Canal.

      The Hutchison ports are not the only China-linked firms involved in canal infrastructure.

      A consortium comprised of state-backed China Harbour Engineering Company and China Communications Construction Company was awarded the contract to build a $1.4 billion highway bridge over the canal to ease traffic in Panama City.

      Meanwhile, state-owned COSCO Shipping is a major canal client, with nearly 300 of its cargo ships navigating the waterway each year, including container ships, dry bulk carriers, and oil tankers, according to company data from 2018.

      Does that give China ‘control’ over the canal?

      There’s no evidence that the Chinese government controls the canal or of Chinese military activity in Panama, experts say.

      But US officials’ concerns come amid a global scrutiny of Beijing’s efforts to build or secure access to commercial ports around the world – which could also benefit China’s expanding navy.

      When it comes to the Panama Canal, some observers say that Chinese firms’ involvement in the canal and its infrastructure could give Beijing leverage – both in terms of commercial advantage and in the event of a potential future conflict with the US.

      Rubio referenced this concern during a confirmation hearing for his post in January, saying that a “foreign power” possesses the ability, through their companies, “to turn the canal into a choke point in a moment of conflict.”

      The strategic risk from a military perspective is that the more commercial assets that are linked to China around the canal, the more options Beijing has to block the US from moving military equipment through the waterway in the event of a conflict between them, according to R. Evan Ellis, a research professor of Latin American Studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.

      “All of these operations, and the relationships with Panama Canal Authority … plus the technical knowledge that you get as a regular operator of the canal basically multiplies the possibilities that if you are (China) and you want to shut down the canal at a time of conflict, there are a thousand ways to do it,” he said, pointing to actions like attacking lock control systems or physically blocking the waterway. “Their physical presence, influence and technical knowledge … would make it harder for us to defend against.”

      Federal Maritime Commission Chairman Louis Sola last week told Congress the US must also guard against “any effort by other interests in Panama to diminish the independence or professionalism of the (Panama Canal) Authority.”

      A 1977 treaty laying out the return of the canal from the US to Panama requires the canal to remain neutral and allows for the US to intervene militarily if the waterway’s operations are disrupted by internal conflict or a foreign power.

      However, some observers see little or limited sway from China at present.

      The US is so firmly established as a the “pre-eminent” partner for Panama that any leverage over goods passing through the canal that China could hope for by enhancing its ties in the country is “capped and limited at best,” according to Brian Wong, a fellow at the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World.

      What kind of relationship does China have with Panama?

      A 2018 state visit from Chinese leader Xi Jinping to the country of roughly 5 million underscored just how much emphasis Beijing – a major global exporter – has placed on building its ties with the strategically vital country.

      Then, the countries inked some 19 agreements to collaborate on trade, infrastructure, banking, and tourism, while Xi declared their relations had “turned over a new chapter.”

      That certainly was the case then. China and Panama only established diplomatic ties a year prior, after Panama stopped recognizing Taiwan as the government of China. That same year Panama became the first country in Latin America to join Xi’s flagship Belt and Road global infrastructure development initiative.

      Those changes were accompanied by a flurry of bids from Chinese companies to build and invest – projects ranging from a $1 billion container terminal to a high-speed rail. Both those projects ultimately fizzled, as a change in Panama’s leadership brought greater scrutiny over such plans and US concerns drove more caution.

      But Chinese firms have also had successes.

      A China-built cruise ship terminal was inaugurated last year, while Chinese companies also have a significant presence in special trade zones near Colon and Panama Pacifico, experts say. Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei in 2015 opened a large distribution facility for its electronic systems from one of those zones.

      Mulino’s decision not to stay involved in the Belt and Road initiative may signal a new stage of scrutiny on China’s presence in the country. But some observers say Beijing may not be phased.

      “China will continue to make investment in Panama if the Central American nation needs the money, and China will continue to trade with Panama,” said Jiang Shixue, director of the Center for Latin American Studies at Shanghai University. Panama’s decision will merely signal to Beijing that “American pressure is so huge,” he added.

      Meanwhile, there are signs that while China has an interest in expanding its footprint in the country, it may have other goals, in places with less potential resistance.

      “Control of strategic chokepoints like the Panama Canal is probably among China’s goals,” said Will Freeman, Fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

      “But it’s dwarfed in importance by a project like Chancay, the new Peruvian mega-port which will accelerate South America-China trade.”

      This post appeared first on cnn.com

      Ukraine’s air force got a boost in its fight against Russia on Thursday with the arrival of Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets from France, along with F-16s from the Netherlands.

      French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu confirmed the transfer of the Mirage jets in a post on X, adding the fighters were flown by Ukrainian pilots who have been training for months in France. French President Emmanuel Macron had promised the Mirage jets to Ukraine last summer.

      “The Ukrainian sky is becoming more secure!” Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in a post on Facebook.

      Welcoming the arrival of “the first French Mirage 2000 fighter jets and F-16s from the Kingdom of the Netherlands,” Umerov said: “These modern combat aircraft have already arrived in Ukraine and will soon begin carrying out combat missions, strengthening our defense and enhancing our ability to effectively counter Russian aggression.”

      Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Macron on Thursday for “his leadership and support.”

      “France’s president keeps his word, and we appreciate it,” Zelensky said in a post on X.

      The new fighters are expected to boost Ukrainian forces’ ability to provide air cover for troops, attack ground targets, take on enemy planes, and intercept missiles.

      The latter role could be vital. Russia has stepped up missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, often sending dozens in one night, taxing Ukraine’s air defense batteries.

      Last weekend, a Russian strike on a residential building in central Ukraine killed at least 14 people, emergency services said.

      In January, the Ukrainian Air Force reported in a Facebook post that one of its F-16 pilots had destroyed six Russian missiles in one night in December.

      Military aviation analyst Peter Layton at the Griffith Asia Institute said the Mirages might be best suited for the air defense role, freeing up the F-16s for other missions.

      Mirages can get airborne more quickly than an F-16, Layton said.

      “I would have the (Mirages) standing ground alert and able to take off within a few minutes to intercept incoming cruise missiles (primary targets) and Shahed drones (secondary targets),” Layton said.

      Mirages could also be used to launch longer-range missiles such as the SCALP, also known as the Storm Shadow, at targets well inside Russia, said Layton, a former Royal Australian Air Force officer.

      Ukraine’s air fleet

      Ukraine needs all the help it can get in its nearly three-year long war, triggered by Russia’s 2022 invasion of its neighbor.

      There has been no let-up in the fighting, even with US President Donald Trump having promised to reach a ceasefire quickly with his return to the White House last month.

      Ukraine’s army continues to be pushed back on the eastern front lines, in the face of superior Russian manpower and resources.

      Thursday’s announcements did not specify the number of fighter jets transferred from the two NATO allies to Ukraine, but the country has to date had few Western warplanes in its fleet.

      Ukraine received its first F-16s last summer, with Zelensky at the time thanking the Netherlands, Denmark and the United States – where the F-16s are built – for the aircraft, without saying how many were delivered.

      Reports since indicate two F-16s have been lost. A list of the world’s combat aircraft from Flight Global shows two F-16s in Ukraine’s fleet as of the beginning of this year, with 58 on order.

      France had 26 Mirage 2000-5s active in its air force at the beginning of 2025, according to Flight Global. The aircraft are the oldest jets in France’s fleet and are slated to be replaced by Rafale jets in the coming years. It is not known how many will be transferred to Ukraine.

      Leighton said current estimates show Ukraine getting a total of 95 F-16s and around two dozen Mirages.

      “Neither airframe will be made available to Ukraine in sufficient numbers to provide the air combat capabilities Ukraine needs at this stage in its war with Russia,” he added. “In ideal circumstances, the Ukrainian Air Force should have around 200 – 220 fighter jets at its disposal.”

      This post appeared first on cnn.com

      “How to prepare for a power outage?” reads the Facebook post from the Estonian Rescue Board, the country’s civil defense agency. The picture shows a young woman holding up a power bank, over a table loaded with water bottles, a flashlight and other emergency supplies.

      Estonia, along with fellow Baltic states Latvia and Lithuania, is counting down the days to finally ridding itself of one of the last vestiges of 50 years of Soviet occupation: an electricity grid controlled by Russia.

      Preparing the population for what most see as the unlikely scenario of power outages is the final stage in a years-long project. “Everything should flow smoothly,” reads the rescue board post, “but unexpected situations can arise… whether that be because of the actions of our hostile neighbor to the East, unexpected weather conditions or technical failures.”

      The Baltics have been getting ready for this moment for almost the entire two decades since they joined the EU and NATO in 2004. They’ve renovated existing infrastructure, and built new power lines including several undersea cables to Finland and Sweden and a crucial overland link to the mainland European grid, the LitPol line linking Lithuania and Poland.

      That meant that just a few months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, all three countries were able to stop buying electricity from Moscow.

      But Russia was still in total control of the functioning of the grid, balancing supply and demand, and maintaining the frequency, said Susanne Nies, project lead at the German energy research institute Helmholtz-Zentrum. And, in another holdover from Soviet times, it was still providing these services for free.

      Six months ago, the Baltic countries officially notified Russia of their intention to “desynchronize” and so, on February 7, the so-called BRELL (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) agreement that governs the shared grid will expire.

      On February 8, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will simultaneously disconnect from that grid, at which point they will need to briefly function as an “island,” surviving only on the electricity they produce. On February 9, they plan to synchronize their newly independent grid with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area, which covers most of the European Union.

      It’s a highly symbolic moment. Outside the Energy and Technology Museum in the center of Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, a countdown clock has been ticking down the last 100 days to “energy independence.” “This is the final break from its Soviet-era occupation,” said Jason Moyer, a foreign policy analyst at the Wilson Center, a think tank in Washington. “Psychologically, this is a huge step forward.”

      The project has involved significant investment, most of it from the European Union, which has provided grants worth over $1.2bn. But for the Baltics, the price of allowing Moscow to maintain that leverage over their power grid was too high. “We understand fairly well that the cheap Russian energy, it always comes at a price that no democratic European country should be able to afford,” said Päi.

      And lest there be any doubt as to their resolve, last year Lithuania’s grid operator Litgrid started cutting old Soviet cables that formed connections to Belarus so the lines could be repurposed.

      The question plaguing Baltic leaders now, as some of the most vocal opponents of the war in Ukraine and some of the most generous donors (as a percentage of GDP) to Ukraine’s military, is whether Russia will try to exploit the moment of disconnection, be it through physical sabotage or another hybrid tactic like cyberattacks or disinformation.

      Ukraine had in fact disconnected from the Russian grid for a test just hours before Russia launched its full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. It never reconnected.

      Russia has shown itself more than willing to weaponize electricity supply, not only through repeated attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid, but also through its almost three-year occupation of the Zaporizhzia nuclear plant, which before the war provided about a fifth of Ukraine’s electricity.

      For Russia, the loss of leverage over the Baltics, former Soviet vassals, is a geopolitical defeat, said Moyer, adding: “I think this really shows that Russia is losing influence in the region,” one that was “traditionally more receptive to Russian business.” The Kremlin declined to comment, noting only that Russia had taken all necessary measures to ensure the “uninterrupted and reliable operation of our unified energy system.”

      “We are increasing our surveillance efforts, we are increasing our additional security measures, and… we are going to watch this with an eye of a hawk,” Šakalienė said.

      NATO has now set up a new mission to protect undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, after the Estlink 2, a critical part of the Baltics’ post-Soviet electricity infrastructure, was damaged on Christmas Day, the latest in a series of incidents involving disruption to the complex web of cables criss-crossing the Baltic Sea floor.

      Grid operators in Finland and the Baltic states assured customers in the days afterward that supplies were secured. But electricity prices did tick up in late December, and the repairs, according to Finnish authorities, will take until August.

      Finland is still investigating the incident, but police have detained a ship carrying Russian oil products, suspected of dragging its anchor across the cable. A lawyer representing the owner of the ship last week called any allegation of sabotage “nonsense.”

      One area neither NATO nor the Baltics can police is Kaliningrad. The tiny Russian exclave sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland will now have to function as an electricity “island,” and while Russia has carried out multiple successful tests of its ability to cope, experts are not ruling out deliberate action by Moscow to stir up tensions.

      “Russia might even provoke a fake blackout in the region and say ‘Hey, Kaliningrad, this is even the result of the Baltic synchronization,’” said Nies. She believes Russia could then accuse the Baltics of plunging the one million residents of Kaliningrad into darkness and use that to exact concessions, and assess NATO’s appetite to come to the aid of its eastern flank.

      The risk may be higher now, with a new administration in Washington that is critical of NATO and determined to end the war in Ukraine. “(The Russians) want to see if NATO is alive, and where do you test it other than in the Baltics?” said Nies.

      This post appeared first on cnn.com