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February 3, 2025

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“When do I sell?” is easily the most-asked question I’ve received over the years. There are multiple answers to this question based on certain variables. The first key variable is whether you’re a day trader, short-term swing trader, or long-term buy and holder. I prefer swing trading, so my answer many times is when corroborating technical evidence tells me to sell.

My easiest sell is after a failed attempt at a breakout or a major reversing candle on heavy volume. The first one is fairly easy to see. Let’s use Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR) as an example from Friday. I don’t know if PLTR is going up on Monday or later this week, but what I do know is it broke out to an intraday all-time high on Friday, then failed to hold that breakout on a closing basis. Check this out:

First, let me say that PLTR has a very strong chart. The AD line is continuously rising, a bullish cup has formed, and PLTR is a leader amongst software stocks ($DJUSSW). Second, I’m not saying PLTR is a short candidate. I’m simply saying it would be a sell for me short-term to take profits. I rarely short during secular bull markets. If it does make the breakout, I can always decide to jump back in. But I’d be looking for PLTR to pull back to form a handle off the cup pattern, or possibly even pull back to the recent low near 65. Sideways consolidation is a very real possibility after an extended advance like the one PLTR has enjoyed. If you need further evidence, look no further than NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) after its June/November/January tops. It’s still consolidating.

The two red arrows mark what “could” be a double top, resulting in a lengthy period of selling and/or consolidation. Taking profits now is a risk-management strategy, eliminating the possibility of riding PLTR back to the downside. If income taxes is a concern and you’re a long-term investor, I see nothing to suggest PLTR is a sell here. I’m only discussing my preferred short-term swing trading strategy.

A second stock with a similar look would be Parker Hannifin Corp (PH), which surged on Thursday after its earnings report. PH then tacked on further gains on Friday and found itself intraday in all-time-high territory. It too looks like a cup has formed:

The AD line here doesn’t seem quite as strong as PLTR, but PH clearly is a leader in the industrial machinery space ($DJUSFE). As I looked around the market on Friday, and really throughout the week, I couldn’t help but see a TON of companies testing key overhead price resistance.

The S&P 500 filled its gap from the severe drop on Monday morning, then printed a bearish engulfing candle on Friday:

Seeing the S&P 500 fail at all-time highs and gap resistance, with well-above-average volume makes me very nervous, especially given the overall market environment.

You’re Invited!

There are a number of bearish signals emerging that I want to discuss with our entire EarningsBeats.com community. Accordingly, we’ll be hosting a FREE webinar on Monday, February 3rd at 5:30pm ET. There’s no credit card required, but you do need to register with your name and email address. CLICK HERE for more information.

Happy trading!

Tom

The potash sector faced a number of headwinds in 2023, leading to volatility in fertilizer prices for much of the year.

While the market stabilized in the first half of 2024, lower cost inputs for potash production and improved crop production have placed downward pressure on potash prices in the second half of the year.

The World Bank expects fertilizer prices to average lower in 2024 and 2025 compared to 2023, while remaining well above the lows of 2015 to 2019 due to strong demand and supply constraints such as export restrictions from China and sanctions on Belarus, two of the largest potash producing countries.

Signaling a bullish sentiment in the potash market, major potash mining firm BHP (NYSE:BHP,ASX:BHP,LSE:BHP) is investing billions into new potash production, including US$4.9 billion towards Stage 2 of its Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada. Stage 1 of Jansen is expected to begin production in 2026, and Stage 2, which has also begun construction, is planned to double Jansen’s capacity by the end of the decade.

All of this is welcome news for potash investors — many potash-mining operations have closed in recent years, and some are waiting on the sidelines for better days and improvements in potash prices.

According to the 2024 Mineral Commodity Summary from the US Geological Survey, in 2023, global consumption of potash increased to 37.1 million metric tons (MT), with the top regions for potash consumption being Asia and South America. In 2022, potash consumption totaled 35.7 million MT.

The agency sees world potash production capacity rising to 67.6 million metric tons in 2026, up from 64.3 million MT in 2023. Most of the increase will come from new muriate of potash (MOP) mines and project expansions in Laos and Russia. Past 2026, new MOP mines are expected to come online in Belarus, Brazil, Canada, Ethiopia, Morocco, Spain and the US.

1. Canada

Potash production: 13 million metric tons; potash reserves: 1.1 billion MT

Leading the list of the top potash countries by production is Canada, which produced 13 million metric tons in 2023. While the nation remained the world’s biggest potash producer, it saw its potash production level fall by nearly 11 percent compared to 2022.

The US Geological Survey attributed this production drop to a dock workers strike in July that blocked potash shipments from the Port of Vancouver in British Columbia, which led some Canadian mines to close temporarily. ‘Production resumed at those mines after the strike was settled in August,’ the agency explained.

Nutrien( TSX:NTR,NYSE:NTR), the world’s largest potash company, is based in the Canadian prairie province of Saskatchewan. It was born from a 2018 merger between two major crop nutrient companies, Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan and Agrium. The deal created “a global agricultural giant” now valued at more than US$38 billion. Today, the company has six operating potash facilities in Saskatchewan, Canada.

The world’s largest potash mine, the Mosaic Company’s (NYSE:MOS) Esterhazy K3 operation, is located in Saskatchewan and capable of producing nearly 8 million MT of the fertilizer each year. Additionally, BHP’s aforementioned Jansen potash project will provide a significant increase to the country’s production capacity once it comes online.

2. Russia

Potash production: 6.5 million metric tons; potash reserves: 650 million MT

In 2023, Russia posted 6.5 million metric tons in potash production, down by 300,000 MT from the previous year. This leaves the nation’s potash output down more than 28 percent from the 9.1 million MT achieved in 2021.

Uralkali is Russia’s premier potash company and one of the world’s leading potash producers, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global supply pre-war. The company has five mines and seven ore treatment and processing mills.

In response to Russia beginning its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU placed import quotas on potash from Russia, and the US sanctioned specific companies, limiting potash imports. Both the EU and US had eased their restrictions on Russian fertilizer imports in late 2022 in reaction to growing concerns about global food insecurity.

However, Russia had set quotas on fertilizer exports until May 2023 in an effort to protect domestic supply levels, and in September introduced a 7 percent duty for fertilizer products.

3. China

Potash production: 6 million metric tons; potash reserves: 180 million MT

China’s potash production remained flat in 2023 at 6 million metric tons, the same as its 2022 output.

Potash is extremely vital for China — the country is the largest consumer of the fertilizer, accounting for approximately 20 percent of world potash consumption. China’s domestic demand for the material is higher than its homegrown potash supply, making the country reliant on potash imports, especially when it comes to MOP.

The provinces of Xinjiang and Qinghai are home to China’s primary potash deposits, and the Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Company (SZSE:000792) is the country’s largest potash producer.

4. Belarus

Potash production: 3.8 million metric tons; potash reserves: 750 million MT

Potash production in Belarus totaled 3.8 million metric tons in 2023, down by 200,000 MT from its 2022 levels and down 50 percent from 2021 levels. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, output from the Eastern European country had been on an upward trajectory since 2016. Belaruskali is the country’s largest industry operator, with six mines and four processing factories.

Human rights concerns with the Belarusian government led the EU and US to place an array of sanctions on Belarus, including its potash companies, in 2021.

‘In January 2022, the Government of Lithuania, citing national security concerns, cancelled the rail transport contract that allowed the state-run producer in Belarus to ship potash from the port of Klaipeda on the Baltic Sea, its only marine export facility,’ the US Geological Survey states.

Belarus potash production and exports for 2023 were well below the previous year, reports the US Geological Survey, even though the nation began exporting potash by rail to China rather than from ports in Russia.

5. Germany

Potash production: 2.6 million metric tons; potash reserves: 150 million MT

Germany’s potash production came in at around 2.6 million metric tons in 2023. It has fallen slightly in recent years, and was down 100,000 MT from 2022.

The world’s first potash deposits were discovered in Staßfurt in Saxony-Anhalt, now a German state, in 1856, and potash mining began at Staßfurt five years later. Germany was the world’s only potash producer until the beginning of the 20th century.

K+S (ETR:SDF) is one of Germany’s leading potash miners and has a number of projects, operating six mines in three districts in the country. The country is also home to DEUSA International, a private company that ‘mines and markets a number of salt based products,’ including potash fertilizers.

6. Israel

Potash production: 2.4 million metric tons; potash reserves: large*

In 2023, Israel produced 2.4 million metric tons of potash. Annual potash production in Israel has remained in the 2 million to 2.5 million metric ton range since 2017. The country recovers potash from the Dead Sea.

Israel is sixth in terms of global potash output, and also hosts one of the world’s largest potash-producing companies, Israel Chemicals (NYSE:ICL,TLV:ICL). Aside from potash, the company produces roughly a third of the world’s bromine, which is often extracted from the same salt water and brine deposits that produce potash.

The outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023 created some concerns over potash supply disruptions. However, because demand was lower than it was when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, a similar price shock didn’t hit the potash market.

* As per the US Geological Survey, ‘Israel and Jordan recover potash from the Dead Sea, which contains nearly 2 billion tons of potassium chloride.’

7. Jordan

Potash production: 1.8 million metric tons; potash reserves: large*

Potash production in Jordan increased marginally to 1.8 million metric tons in 2023 from 1.64 million MT the prior year. Arab Potash Company, located in Jordan, is the seventh largest producer of potash by volume and the sole producer of potash in the Arab region. It has helped make Jordan a key potash supplier for India and Asia. Like Israel, Jordan recovers potash from the Dead Sea.

* As per the US Geological Survey, ‘Israel and Jordan recover potash from the Dead Sea, which contains nearly 2 billion tons of potassium chloride.’

8. Laos

Potash production: 1.4 million  metric tons; potash reserves: 75 million MT

The Southeast Asian nation of Laos was the eighth largest potash-producing country last year, taking the spot from Chile. Laos produced 1.4 million metric tons of potash in 2023, doubling the previous year’s output of 700,000 MT and a massive leap from the 260,000 MT of potash produced in 2021.

Asia-Potash International Investment (SZSE:000893), one of the largest potassium fertilizer producers in Asia, is at the helm of the country’s potash industry, and is one of the Belt and Road cooperation projects operated by Chinese companies.

Laos is in a great position to increase its potash production in the coming years. Argus reports that in March of 2024, Laos-based potash producer Lao Kaiyuan began construction on its third MOP unit. It is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, which will double the company’s current production capacity to 2 million MT per year.

9. Chile

Potash production: 600,000 metric tons; potash reserves: 100 million MT

Chile recorded production of 600,000 metric tons in 2023. Previously a much larger producer, Chile put out 1.2 million MT of potash in 2018, but its production dropped below 1 million MT in 2019 and has slipped further since then.

One of the largest producers of potash in the country is SQM (NYSE:SQM), which is also a leading producer of lithium. South America is one of the world’s largest potash consumers.

10. United States

Potash production: 400,000 metric tons; potash reserves: 220 million MT

In 2023, US potash output totaled 400,000 metric tons, down 30,000 MT from its 2022 level. However, the country managed to hold onto its spot as the 10th largest potash-producing nation. The US has potash reserves of 220 million metric tons.

New Mexico is the source for the majority of US potash production, according to the US Geological Survey. The state is home to two underground mines and one deep-well solution mine. Utah is also a sizeable contributor to the nation’s potash industry, with three operations.

Potassium sulfate or sulfate of potash (SOP) and potassium magnesium sulfate (SOPM) represent about 70 percent of the country’s total potash production, with MOP accounting for the remainder of production.

The country’s most prolific potash producers include Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI) and the Mosaic Company. Intrepid, which bills itself as the only producer of MOP in the country, operates an underground mine and a solar evaporation mine in Carlsbad, New Mexico, as well as solar evaporation mines in Wendover and Moab, Utah. Mosaic has an operating potash mine in New Mexico, and the company’s output from that mine and its operations in Saskatchewan, Canada, account for 34 percent of potash production in North America.

Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Michael Campbell, a well-known financial analyst and host of Michael Campbell’s Money Talks, shared his outlook on gold and energy ahead of the World Outlook Financial Conference.

Scheduled to run from February 7 to 8 in Vancouver, BC, the event will feature speakers including Martin Armstrong, Tony Greer, Peter Grandich, Josef Schacter and Lance Roberts.

Looking at gold, Campbell said while it’s already doing well, he sees an even better performance ahead.

‘When confidence leaves the US dollar, (gold will) be a rocket ship. I hate using emotive terms like that — that’s the move though,’ he said, adding that he’s also bullish on uranium, oil and gas.

Overall, his biggest context for investing is declining confidence in government.

Campbell also weighed in on the situation in Canada as the country moves toward a leadership change, saying there is a clear choice for voters when it comes to natural resources.

Watch the video above for more from Campbell on those topics, as well as further details on the World Outlook Financial Conference.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Foran Mining (TSXV:FOM,OTCQX:FMCXF) has signed a contribution agreement with the Canadian government’s Strategic Innovation Fund (SIF), securing up to C$41 million for its McIlvenna Bay project in Saskatchewan.

McIlvenna Bay, located west of Flin Flon, Manitoba, contains copper, zinc and other critical minerals, and is positioned to be a key resource for Canada’s growing demand for domestically sourced metals.

With indicated resources of 39 million metric tons grading 2.04 percent copper equivalent, Foran expects the asset to contribute significantly to the country’s critical minerals supply chain.

The SIF funding consists of both repayable and non-repayable contributions, to be allocated toward eligible project costs incurred by the company before December 31, 2026. Foran plans to use the money to integrate battery-electric vehicles, water recycling systems, heat recovery systems and pyrite removal in mine tailings as part of its operations.

The company is also working on remote operations and on-demand ventilation technologies.

SIF, which is managed by Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, provides financial support for projects aligned with Canada’s industrial strategy. The fund aims to attract large-scale investments, support business growth and advance projects that contribute to Canada’s long-term economic objectives.

“Our government is committed to a net-zero future for Canada, and this project is precisely the investment we need to secure Canada’s position as a global leader in clean technologies and responsibly sourced mineral products,” said François-Philippe Champagne, Canada’s minister of innovation for science and industry, in a statement.

Further, Jonathan Wilkinson, the country’s minister of energy and natural resources, highlighted McIlvenna Bay’s role in supporting Saskatchewan’s domestic mineral production and economic development in a carbon-neutral manner.

“Foran’s McIlvenna Bay mining project alone will support over 400 jobs and reinforce Saskatchewan’s position as a global mining leader by producing more Canadian copper and zinc to supply our own needs and those of our allies,” he said.

McIlvenna Bay is part of the broader Hanson Lake District, where Foran is advancing additional exploration activities. The company has a multi-phase development plan, and intends to integrate new mining technologies across its operations.

SIF’s financial support for Foran is based on eligible costs of C$263 million, with C$226 million allocated within Phase 1 of McIlvenna Bay’s capital budget.

Ontario signs deal to ‘unlock’ Ring of Fire’s potential

Foran’s cash infusion aligns with ongoing federal and provincial efforts to strengthen Canada’s domestic critical minerals supply chains. Also this week, Ontario signed a shared prosperity agreement with Aroland First Nation to advance infrastructure development in the province’s Ring of Fire area.

The deal includes funding for upgrades to Anaconda Road and Painter Lake Road, two key routes that will connect to the province’s planned road network linking First Nations communities and mineral development projects.

The province has also committed C$70 million for planning the Greenstone Electricity Transmission Line, which will support future industrial expansion and reduce reliance on diesel power in the region.

The shared prosperity agreement with Aroland First Nation also includes C$20 million for community infrastructure projects and C$2.27 million for business development planning. Ontario Premier Doug Ford emphasized that developing the Ring of Fire is a strategic priority as Canada currently faces global trade uncertainties.

“With the risk of US tariffs, it’s never been more important for us to work together to do everything possible to keep our economy competitive. At the top of the list is unlocking the economic potential of the Ring of Fire region,” he said.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

As the Trump administration begins its four year mandate and war continues to rage in Ukraine, the precarious geopolitical landscape remains the primary focus for many resource sector watchers and participants.

Day one of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference began with a panel on the global geopolitical outlook. Moderated by event host Jay Martin, the participants explored major trends poised to impact the resource sector.

Starting the 30 minute discussion, Dr. Pippa Malmgren, an economist, noted that the current geopolitical landscape is characterized by ‘hot wars in cold places’ — meaning that the major conflicts are taking place in areas like space, the Arctic and the Baltic, rather than the traditional ‘boots on the ground’ battles often associated with war.

While Malmgren sees the war in Ukraine ending, she warned of another larger-scale conflict.

“I think that we’re going to end up with a deal between the new White House and China and Russia, and what will happen is the visible war will subside, but the war for the technological frontier will accelerate — and that is where the fight is,” she told the audience. “It’s for quantum computing, it’s for nanotechnology, it’s for space.”

This technological front also extends to the deep sea, according to Malmgren. She explained that on January 6, 2022, the fastest internet cable in the world, which connects satellites to earthly networks, was cut.

Located near Svalbard, Norway the undersea cable has been “unexpectedly severed” several times.

“Luckily, we had so much redundancy built in that that event did not become visible to the public, but the militaries understood this is effectively an act of war,” said Malmgren.

Framing the narrative on conflict

For Dr. Pascal Lottaz, it’s important to frame conflict in the right way.

The associate professor at Kyoto University’s Graduate School of Law explained that while the world is experiencing different phases of cold wars, he hesitates to frame everything as a ‘war’ since it dilutes the meaning of the term. A better way to describe the current global landscape is through the lens of a ‘security competition.’

Lottaz added that competition is particularly intense among the US, Russia and China, and is playing out across various domains, including technology. The critical question is whether these rivalries will remain at a level where actions like cutting undersea cables are the worst consequences — serious, but far from catastrophic.

The danger is that tensions could escalate into open conflict. In fact, the world is in one of the most perilous periods of modern history, arguably the most dangerous since the Cuban Missile Crisis, said Lottaz.

He said these concerns keep him up at night, because some factions no longer view nuclear war as an unthinkable scenario. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction only works if all parties believe in deterrence; if one side starts to think nuclear weapons are a viable option, the entire balance is at risk.

Hard assets key amid geopolitical uncertainty

Adding to the discussion, Col. Douglas Macgregor, former senior advisor to the US secretary of defense, underscored that the world is undergoing profound shifts, while Washington remains trapped in outdated perspectives, still viewing itself as the global center — a mindset that blinds it to the resurgence of major nations like China, India and Iran.

Macgregor went on to note that the US has lost its technological monopoly, a fact that was highlighted when China’s DeepSeek disrupted the tech sector and sent shares of US rivals plummeting.

The colonel also criticized the exorbitant spending on defense in the US.

“We have a trillion-dollar defense budget. It’s unaffordable,’ he said.

‘And people are saying, well, we have a new administration. I read the headlines yesterday — the House and the Senate want to add US$200 billion to the defense budget. It’s insane. This is not sustainable.’

Amid this uncertainty, Macgregor warned that the “grossly inflated bubble” of the US economy is set to collapse in the next year. He went on to urge conference attendees to pursue hard assets.

“The only assets that are worth having in the future are hard assets,” he said. “Keep that in mind — if it comes out of the ground, whether you grow it or you dig it out, it’s valuable.”

Offering a more optimistic outlook, Lottaz, pointed out that the shifting global landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for the resource sector. BRICS nations, often framed as adversaries in western narratives, are not anti-west, but rather are forging independent economic paths. This shift is reshaping commodities markets, as emerging economies like Indonesia, Malaysia and parts of Africa seek greater control over their resources.

Lottaz added that while Africa is an abundant source of mineral resources, there are no commodity markets on the continent. This is a fact that African countries would like to see change.

“Yes, it’s going to change the game, but not necessarily to the disadvantage of us and the others,’ he said.

“But, you know, thriving together is something that’s possible, and I think it will come. The question is (whether) we want to engage with it or not?”

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Britain will make it illegal to use artificial intelligence tools that create child sexual abuse images, it said on Saturday, becoming the first country in the world to introduce the new AI sexual abuse offenses.

Possessing, taking, making, showing or distributing explicit images of children is a crime in England and Wales. The new offenses target the use of AI tools to “nudeify” real-life images of children.

The move comes as online criminals increasingly use AI to create child abuse material, with reports of such explicit images rising nearly five-fold in 2024, according to the Internet Watch Foundation.

“We know that sick predators’ activities online often lead to them carrying out the most horrific abuse in person,” said Yvette Cooper, the United Kingdom’s interior minister. “It is vital that we tackle child sexual abuse online as well as offline so we can better protect the public from new and emerging crimes.”

Predators also use AI tools to disguise their identity and blackmail children with fake images to force them into further abuse, such as by streaming live images, the government said.

The new criminal offenses include the possession, creation or distribution of AI tools designed to create child sexual abuse material and the possession of so-called AI “pedophile manuals,” which provide instructions on the usage of the technology.

Another specific offense will target those who run websites on which child sexual abuse content is distributed. The government will also enable authorities to unlock digital devices for inspection.

The measures will be included in the Crime and Policing Bill when it comes to parliament.

Britain said earlier this month it would also make the creation and sharing of sexually explicit “deepfakes” – videos, pictures or audio clips made with AI to look real – a criminal offense.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The main room in the El Buen Samaritano shelter in Ciudad Juarez, a city along the US-Mexico border, is quiet for most of the day.

Rows of bunk beds stretch from wall to wall, each separated by thin curtains or hanging sheets. The mismatched mattresses are occupied by men, women, and children – all migrants who intended to reach the United States but haven’t completed their journey.

It’s the mid-morning of a cold Tuesday, most are resting or scrolling through their phones, the only noises in the room come from sporadic coughs, two children playing, and the subtle sounds from a video playing on a phone. The scene feels like a loop.

At around 1 o’clock, Lucymar Polanco, a 32-year-old Venezuelan woman, checks her watch.

“Kids, guys, it’s almost lunchtime,” she yells as she gets up and puts on a coat. They’re indoors but the walls are penetrated by the winter cold.

“Everyone up, let’s get ready,” she says.

Her husband, her three kids, and five other relatives, all start getting ready enthusiastically. Soon after, a shelter worker announces the food is ready to be served.

“I’m hungry, finally!” her 9-year-old son Abel Jesus, says.

Polanco and the other nine members of her family are among thousands of asylum-seekers who were stopped in their tracks by US President Donald Trump’s January 20 decision to cancel all CBP One appointments for people seeking asylum from violence or persecution.

Their appointment had been set for January 21. Now, they are stranded in the shelter in Juarez with no money and full of uncertainty. From here, they can see across the border into the US – but they have no idea where to go now.

For the moment, the only thing they know is that it’s time to eat.

‘We laugh to keep from crying’

After lining up, the family – whose members range in age from 5 to 40 – head to the shelter’s dining hall. They sit together and occupy most of a communal table.

As soon as they sit, they seem to put all their problems aside and focus on one another, on talking and enjoying the warm meal. The day’s menu: chicken soup and a small dish of rice and beans with canned tuna.

“The most delicious soup does exist,” 9-year-old Abel Jesus says with his mouth half-full and soup dripping from the edge of his mouth.

The adults chat and mostly talk about rumors they’ve heard about the CBP One app.

“I heard appointments until January 30 will be reinstated,” Luis Alfonso Polanco, 30, says of a rumor that later proved to be untrue. “That’s what a friend in the US told me.”

On the other side of the table, his partner Yelitza Olivero talks to two other migrants from Ecuador and shares the rumor about the app with them.

At times, the family’s border chatter turns into laughter and jokes about one another.

“We try to make jokes about each other, it’s a way of distracting from the news we received on January 20, it was very sad,” Lucymar’s cousin, 18-year-old Estiven Castillo, says.

Surviving the Darien gap and the cartels

Lucymar and her family say they fled the Venezuelan state of Lara due to political persecution from authoritarian President Nicolas Maduro’s government.

“We were part of an opposing political party,” she says. “My family, my parents, everyone there, and the government knew that, and we’d constantly be threatened.”

“I was set to receive a house from a program run by the government but after they found out who I voted for in prior elections, they took that benefit away from me,” she says holding back tears.

Prior to leaving Venezuela, both Lucymar and her brother, Luis Alfonso, worked in the beauty industry. “I was a barber in Venezuela, but things were so bad that at times I cut hair in exchange for food,” Luis Alfonso says.

Lucymar’s husband, Jesus Caruci, 40, worked as a mechanic, and Yelitza, who’s married to Luis Alfonso, worked in sales. The rest of the traveling family, all young adults or children, were in school before leaving the country.

Their journey began a little over two years ago. They spent a few months in neighboring Colombia to later trek through several countries. They crossed the treacherous Darien Gap safely – but were kidnapped by a cartel after arriving in southern Mexico.

“When we entered Tapachula, they were waiting for us,” Luis Alfonso recalls.

“They tricked us, they forced us into a vehicle and said they were taking us to a safe place (…) but they took us to a farm and held us there for six days.”

Luis Alfonso says the criminal group only released after they paid $900 – all that they were carrying.

“Ever since we’ve survived with some money our family has sent us or that we’ve had to borrow,” he says.

‘Trump, take our country and call it Venezuela of America’

After sobremesa, the family goes to the shelter’s patio to get some sun and continue to chat. They gather several plastic chairs that are spread out through the uneven and cracked shelter pavement and form a circle. The little kids decide to run around and play in an outdoor playset.

“I understand Trump,” says 19-year-old Beyker Sosa as the family stays quiet.

“There have been crimes done by illegal migrants, I understand the measures, they are meant to keep the country safe,” he adds. “But we aren’t criminals, I wish he (Trump) would have compassion, we are humans just like him.”

“We never considered entering illegally, we never want to hide from authorities, we wanted to be able to walk free,” Beyker says. “It’s very sad to have done things right, the legal way, only to have Trump shut the app down, but I guess God doesn’t want us there.”

The family says their smartphones and conversation are their only form of entertainment in the shelter. “We can’t even go out, we were warned that migrants are targeted in this area, so we just stay in, especially after already being kidnapped,” Lucymar says.

Still, with kids to entertain, snacks are a must. Luis Alfonso and Estiven go to a store around the corner to buy cookies and soda.

As they return, they rejoin the conversation and start passing around Oreos and a plastic cup with orange soda.

“Trump should clean up Venezuela, we are good people, but he should up take out the bad ones, especially those in the government, take them out, Trump, and then take our country and call it Venezuela of America,” Beyker jokes as he refers to Trump’s bid to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.

Nearly two hours later, the family is back in the main room of the shelter with each settling into their beds again.

“This is all we do, we are either in our beds, on our phones, we wonder what could’ve been,” Lucymar says.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A deadline to begin talks on extending Gaza’s ceasefire arrived Monday with the Israeli prime minister in Washington, silence from his office about when a negotiating team might engage with Hamas, and considerable uncertainty about what the next stage of the fragile truce will look like.

The ceasefire, in place for just over two weeks, is set to expire on March 1. Under the terms of the deal, talks on the next phase are supposed to begin no later than Monday.

But the Israeli government has yet to publicly unveil a negotiating team for the talks, let alone send them to Qatar or Egypt, where Hamas is sending a delegation this week. Hamas has not publicly commented on Monday’s deadline.

Qatar’s prime minister, who has acted as an intermediary in the talks, said Sunday that there were “no clear details” on when or how the talks would start. “We hope to see some movement in the coming days,” Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said during a press conference in Doha.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that he sees the path forward not in Doha or Cairo, but in Washington, where he will this week become the first foreign leader to hold a formal meeting with US President Donald Trump.

Netanyahu’s office said on the eve of his departure that he had agreed with Trump’s Middle East envoy that “negotiations on the second phase of the hostage deal will begin with their meeting in Washington,” during which “they will discuss Israel’s positions.”

Since the ceasefire went into effect on January 19, Hamas and its allies have released 18 hostages held in Gaza. In exchange, the Israeli government has released 583 Palestinians held in detention – some serving life sentences for serious offenses – but also a significant number of children held without public charge or trial.

The ceasefire has seen the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gazan population centers, a surge of aid entering the enclave and, for the first time since May last year, the opening of the vital Rafah crossing on the border with Egypt for the evacuation of injured and sick Palestinians.

It has also largely held apart from a few violations – only the second respite in 15 months of war, after a brief truce in November 2023.

Chief among Netanyahu’s concerns this week will be what Trump wants. The American president was not yet in office during the first round of ceasefire talks, though his team played a large role in pushing Israel toward a deal.

“Our decisions and the courage of our soldiers have redrawn the map,” Netanyahu said on the tarmac of Ben Gurion Airport Sunday. “But I believe that, working closely with President Trump, we can redraw it even further and for the better.”

But Gershon Baskin, a veteran Israeli negotiator and peace activist, said in a statement that Netanyahu’s “refusal to begin negotiations on the day stipulated in the agreement is a clear violation of the agreement.”

“Israel demands that Hamas adhere to all the terms of the agreement, while simultaneously violating it in a significant way. Once again, Netanyahu is abandoning the hostages and endangering them.”

Trump claimed credit for the current ceasefire and pledged upon taking office to end foreign wars. But he has also now repeated his desire for the 2 million people of Gaza to leave so that “we just clean out that whole thing.” The forced displacement of civilians can constitute “a war crime and/or crime against humanity,” according to the United Nations.

Trump’s proposal was music to the ears of the most extreme minister in Netanyahu’s governing coalition. Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, who vehemently opposed the withdrawal of Israeli forces and settlers from Gaza in 2005, wants Jews to resettle in the enclave.

“Encouraging migration (of Palestinians out of Gaza) is the only solution that will bring peace and security to the residents of Israel and alleviate the suffering of Gaza’s Arab residents,” he said after Trump expressed his desire for Palestinians to leave.

Already one minister – the far-right Itamar Ben-Gvir – has withdrawn his party from the Israeli government over the ceasefire, calling it a capitulation. Smotrich has pledged he will do the same if Israel does not renew the war in Gaza when the current, first phase of the ceasefire expires.

Kareem Khadder, Mike Schwartz and Eyad Kourdi contributed to this report.

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President Donald Trump has finally made good on a campaign promise to raise tariffs on Chinese imports – announcing on Saturday duties of 10% on all Chinese goods coming in the country as part of sweeping trade measures that also targeted Mexico and Canada.

Now the question for Chinese leaders is how strongly to retaliate.

In the wake of the announcement, Chinese officials – who were hit by Trump’s move while in the middle of a week-long public holiday – vowed to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization and “take corresponding countermeasures” without specifying in what form.

The imposition of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods imported into the United States “seriously violates the WTO rules,” China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement Sunday, adding that China will “resolutely defend its rights.”

That response, at least so far, has been noticeably less concrete than the ones from Mexico and Canada, which were both quick to pledge swift retaliatory tariffs. The latest announcement raises a 10% tariff on Chinese products, rather than the 25% on all goods from Mexico and most from Canada – all are expected to go into effect Tuesday. Unlike for China, where the latest tariffs top existing ones on a swath of goods, Canada and Mexico previously enjoyed nearly a duty-free relationship with the US.

But there are other reasons besides the number next to the percentage sign and China’s public holiday that could account for the comparatively mild response from the world’s second largest economy.

Beijing has enjoyed an unexpectedly warm start to Trump’s second term – a welcome development for Chinese leaders as they seek to avoid escalating trade and tech frictions at the same time as the export-reliant country’s economy slows.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Trump had what the US leader called a “very good” phone call days before Trump took office, and his inaugural ceremony was attended by the highest-level Chinese official to ever be dispatched to such an event.

The US president has also sent other signals he’s in dealmaking mode with Beijing – saying repeatedly he hopes to work with Xi on resolving Russia’s war in Ukraine and suggesting in a recent interview with Fox News that he thought Washington and Beijiing could reach a trade deal.

While the president campaigned on winning economic competition with China and stacked his administration with a bevy of China hawks, the recent tone may suggest to Beijing that it’s better not to escalate too extensively, at least not yet.

Still time for a deal?

The 10% tariffs are a far cry from the upwards of 60% tariffs that Trump suggested he could levy on Chinese goods while on the campaign trail. Trump has – at least in his rhetoric – largely linked these duties to the role of Chinese suppliers in the fentanyl trade, not the gaping trade imbalance between the US and China.

Instead, the expectation within China has been that Trump may be biding his time until he receives the results of a larger probe into US-China economic and trade relations that he commissioned in an executive order signed on his first day in office.

“Trump may rely on the upcoming results of trade investigations to impose or expand tariffs on specific countries, testing their tolerance and willingness to negotiate,” an analysis published Sunday on the website of Shanghai-based think tank Fudan Development Institute said.

“The risk of escalating into a ‘full-blown trade war’ cannot be ruled out. Before any actual actions are taken, Trump can still use ambiguous strategies to pressure opponents and wait for substantive concessions from them,” it continued.

The Trump-ordered review, due April 1, is expected to guide whether the White House imposes further duties on China. In the meantime, Beijing has time to build a relationship with Trump, entertain him in the Chinese capital or push for a preemptive deal to avert more severe economic penalties.

The message from China’s top political echelon has been conciliatory. Chinese Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang last month told elites gathered in Davos that Beijing wants to “promote balanced trade” with the world, while Xi called for a “new starting point” in US-China ties.

Beijing’s decision to complain to the WTO about the new tariffs underscores a key message from Chinese Communist Party propagandists: that China plays by global rules, while the US is the one who does not. Beijing has also defended its efforts to control exports of precursor chemicals for fentanyl and said the drug crisis is “America’s problem.”

It remains to be seen whether China will announce more trade countermeasures in the days ahead. But its initial response to the 10% duty and messaging in recent weeks suggests that it may still be in a wait-and-see mode before digging too deeply into its toolbox of retaliatory measures.

An opinion piece published by state broadcaster CCTV Sunday decried the “erroneous” tariffs while also calling for more cooperation between the two countries.

Weighing up retaliation

Pundits within the country have downplayed the impact of the 10% tariffs – amid a larger debate about whether it would serve China to escalate a trade war like during the first administration.

In 2018, Trump heightened or imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of Chinese imports to the US, with Beijing hitting back with what analysts say were some $185 billion of its own tariffs on US goods.

The Biden administration largely kept those duties in place, while focusing on its own so-called “small yard, high fence” approach to trade with China – placing targeted export controls on Chinese access to high tech that could have military applications.

That saw Beijing unleash its own controls – limiting the export of certain critical minerals and related technologies that countries rely on to fabricate products from military goods to semiconductors. Late last year, the country revamped its export control regulations, sharpening its ability to restrict so-called dual-use goods.

A ramping up of the use of these controls, as well as retaliatory tariffs, could be moves for Beijing in the weeks ahead or if Trump does levy higher tariffs in the coming months.

Meanwhile, Beijing has already taken steps to insulate itself from some of the impacts of the tariffs, which Trump himself has admitted could bring “pain” for Americans – an admission that follows concerns from economists and members of Congress that Americans will bear the cost of the measures.

The US imported $401 billion worth of goods from China, with a trade deficit of over $270 billion in the first 11 months of last year, according to US government data. That placed China behind only Mexico as a top source for goods imported to the US.

Chinese state media on Sunday said the country’s exports to the US account for only 3% of their GDP and less than 15% of China’s total exports.

“The tariffs will hurt both countries. But you’ve seen already a gradual kind of redirection of trade to other countries (from Chinese companies),” Jin said.

China sees “Trump as somebody who they can negotiate with, that there’s room for negotiation,” she added.

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