Don’t let Israel’s approval of the Gaza ceasefire fool you: There are deep schisms in Israeli politics that could threaten the longevity of the deal.

The ceasefire as agreed to in Qatar is set to last 42 days. Over that period, 33 hostages are expected to be freed in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, there will be a slow withdrawal of the Israeli military from urban centers in Gaza and a surge of humanitarian aid.

But it is very much not a permanent end to the war, nor does it guarantee freedom for the 65 hostages who would remain in Gaza at the end of this first phase – many of whom are likely dead. That is yet to be negotiated, starting by day 16 of the truce.

Whether any of it comes to pass may be dictated by the vagaries of Israeli politics. The deal to which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed is remarkably similar to a proposal he railed against for almost a year.

“We haven’t committed to any of the delusional demands of Hamas,” the Israeli prime minister said in February last year. “I told (US Secretary of State) Antony Blinken we are nearly there with complete victory.”

The proposal he was criticizing would have seen a multi-stage ceasefire, the phased withdrawal of Israeli troops, and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. That happens to be the exact thing to which Netanyahu has now agreed.

Though Hamas is undeniably weakened, Israel has not achieved the “complete victory” that Netanyahu long promised. “We assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it is lost,” Blinken said this week.

Netanyahu’s extremist allies in government are confused by his sudden about-face.

“I love Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and will make sure that he continues to be prime minister,” Itamar Ben Gvir, the national security minister, said in a statement Friday morning. “But I will leave (government) because the deal that was signed is disastrous.”

Ben Gvir has said that his Jewish Power party will withdraw from the governing coalition if the ceasefire and hostage deal goes through. His departure would not by itself be enough to topple the government. And he could well return – it will be hard to step away from power for a man who not long ago was on the very fringes of politics, having been convicted of inciting terrorism and considered so extreme that the Israeli military rejected him from service.

But what could topple the government is if Ben Gvir is joined by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich in withdrawing from Netanyahu’s coalition. Smotrich, also an extreme right-wing nationalist, wants to make sure that the peace in Gaza is not permanent, and that Israel goes back to war after the 42-day ceasefire that is expected to see 33 hostages released.

While Smotrich’s departure would break Netanyahu’s coalition, his government could be saved by his rival, Yair Lapid of the opposition Yesh Atid party, who has offered a political lifeline to the prime minister by supporting him in the legislature. That means that Lapid would hold a sword over Netanyahu’s neck, could collapse the government and bring about an election whenever he chooses – a threat the prime minister will surely do anything to avoid.

It is unclear whether Netanyahu has given Smotrich any promises to secure his support – solving today’s crisis is more important than solving tomorrow’s. He is clearly keen for it, having met with Smotrich twice in the hours leading up to the ceasefire announcement in Qatar. President Biden said Wednesday “the plan says if negotiations take longer than six weeks, the ceasefire will continue, as long as the negotiations continue.” But were Israel to begin bombing on day 43, the agreement would collapse.

In the hours after the Qatari prime minister announced the agreement on Wednesday, Netanyahu’s office sent a cascade of press releases accusing Hamas of reneging on promises to give Israel a veto over some Palestinian prisoners due to be released.

The statements made clear that he was being tough by telling his team to stand firm. Those 11th-hour hitches may have been real – though Hamas denies it. But the very public chest-beating crediting the prime minister’s “firm stance” was surely intended to placate the domestic, far-right audience. Once the differences were bridged, the cabinet appeared to fast-track its approval – moving a planned Saturday meeting to the final hours of Friday.

Another factor may also be at the center of Netanyahu’s capitulation to this initial ceasefire: incoming American president Donald Trump.

His self-styled image as the American president who ends foreign wars will surely bring an enormous amount of pressure on Netanyahu to stay with the agreement, for which Trump has taken credit and dubbed “EPIC.”

Netanyahu was able to ignore President Joe Biden’s overtures, confident that he had an even more steadfast ally, Trump, waiting in the wings.

Now he has no such luxury.

Israel’s government approved a ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas, paving the way for the agreement to take effect Sunday and potentially signalling a new chapter in a bloody 15-month conflict that has enflamed the Middle East.

The 33-member cabinet deliberated for more than seven hours into early Saturday before green-lighting the agreement, according to a statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office.

Approved earlier by Israel’s smaller security cabinet after being thrashed out by negotiators in Doha, the deal will pause the fighting in Gaza, and lead to the release of dozens of Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

It also offers an opportunity for humanitarian workers to shuttle much-needed aid into the battered enclave, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are starving, according to the United Nations, and living conditions are dire.

Sunday’s ceasefire will take effect at 8:30 a.m. local time (1:30 a.m. ET), a spokesperson for the Qatari foreign ministry Majed Al Ansari said in a statement on X. Qatar has been one of the key mediators in brokering the deal.

It will be the second ceasefire since the war started on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants launched an attack on Israel, killing more than 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli authorities. The military offensive launched by Israel in response has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians and injured more than 110,000 in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians in its figures.

Though Israel’s Supreme Court will still hear appeals by Israelis opposing freedom for any Palestinian prisoners slated for release, that process is not expected to delay the start of the ceasefire.

Three female Israeli civilian hostages held in Gaza are expected to be released on the first day, according to two US officials. Ninety-five Palestinian prisoners are set to be released Sunday beginning after 4 p.m. local time Sunday, Israel’s Ministry of Justice said.

Hamas and its allies still hold 94 people taken from Israel 15 months ago. At least 34 of them are dead, according to the Israeli government, though the true number is expected to be higher.

All but 10 of the 94 hostages are Israeli or dual citizens, while eight are from Thailand, one is from Nepal, and one is from Tanzania, according to the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office.

Negotiations for the second and third phases of the ceasefire will begin on the 16th day of the implementation of the deal, according to an Israeli official.

A joint operations room will be established in Cairo to monitor the implementation of the deal and will include representatives from Egypt, Qatar, the United States, Israel, and Palestinian officials, according to Egypt’s state-affiliated Al Qahera News, citing a senior Egyptian official.

Humanitarian relief

Under the deal, humanitarian aid into Gaza will be ramped up to 600 trucks per day, a significant increase from the 614 truckloads of aid that entered Gaza in the first two weeks of January, according to data from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Hundreds of aid trucks carrying food, clothing, medical supplies and other relief materials, are lined up at the Rafah border crossing in anticipation of the deal going into effect Sunday, Al Qahera News reported. The trucks came from various areas of the Egyptian region of North Sinai, and some have been waiting for months, the news outlet said.

However, the United Nations warned Thursday the increased aid allotment would be “only a start” in addressing the catastrophic humanitarian crisis in the enclave.

The breakthrough in talks has inspired fresh – yet cautious – hope among the families of Israeli hostages still trapped in Gaza, many of whom do not know if their relatives are dead or alive.

The start of the ceasefire Sunday will be a reprieve for Gazans who have endured 15 months of relentless Israeli strikes, which have reduced much of the enclave to rubble.

Scenes of jubilation emerged across Gaza shortly after mediator Qatar announced Wednesday that Israel and Hamas had come to the agreement, though Israel’s bombardment has ramped up in the days since.

Israeli strikes have killed more than 100 people since the ceasefire deal was announced, including 30 children, according to Gaza’s Civil Defense.

The first ceasefire, in November 2023, lasted about a week. In that period, 105 hostages being held by Hamas – primarily women, children and elderly people – were released, while Israel released about 240 Palestinian prisoners from its jails.

Netanyahu faced major political fallout ahead of the cabinet meeting to approve the deal, with two far-right parties threatening to quit the government if the deal went through – a move that could cause the prime minister to lose his majority in the Knesset, or parliament.