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January 15, 2025

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Gold has been in the headlines over the last few months, perhaps more so now than in years. This heightened attention stems from shifts in global conditions, including worldwide inflation, escalating geopolitical tensions, a surge in central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization efforts, and the influence of BRICS nations.

If you follow financial media, $3,000 an ounce is the key number, according to analysts from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citi research, though their timings may vary.

Regardless, the global economy can change a lot over the next few months, especially when the new White House administration takes hold. So, despite analyst projections, keep a close eye on the technical action, as it will likely reflect these changes moving forward.

The weekly chart of gold futures ($GOLD) below gives a wider perspective on gold prices today.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Note how gold started going slightly parabolic in March 2024. Is it topping?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Gold began its upward trend after hitting a low during the fall of 2022. Throughout most of 2023, the yellow metal remained trapped within a broad trading range. However, in March 2024, gold broke out of this range, gaining significant momentum. This rally culminated in a three-month consolidation pattern, which is where gold is today.

Side note: While this consolidation pattern may resemble a symmetrical triangle to many, it lacks a few key characteristics—especially in terms of volume—so I am reluctant to label it as such.

Gold is generally considered to have a negative correlation with the US Dollar ($USD). As shown in the price overlay, the dollar has been rising since October 2024. Typically, when the dollar strengthens, gold prices decline. However, gold’s reaction to the dollar’s recent advance appears to be relatively subdued so far. So where does that leave us now, with rate-cut uncertainties weighing on market sentiment and inflation data, namely the CPI and PPI, set for release this week?

Shift over to a daily chart comparing $GOLD with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), a popular choice for stock investors seeking exposure to gold. I’ll compare both charts since they differ slightly.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES AND GLD. Note the differences between the ETF and the futures, despite their correlations. Note that $GOLD is EOD, so you are not seeing the current decline at the time of writing.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The difference between gold in the futures market and GLD is quite notable. Since futures trade 24 hours a day, price gaps are rare. Additionally, trading volume differs slightly, with the futures market typically attracting larger institutional traders compared to GLD.

If you follow financial news, you may have noticed that many analysts highlight $2,600 as a key support level, suggesting that gold has the potential for further upside. This would be comparable to $238-$240 in GLD. If gold breaks below those levels, the next swing low, one that marks the lowest price point of the consolidation, it would be near $2,544, and for GLD it’s at $236. A break below these levels would invalidate the current uptrend and potentially lead to more downside.

In this scenario, it’s important to reevaluate the broader context—considering technical, fundamental, and geopolitical factors—to gain a clearer understanding of what might be unfolding.

If you’re curious about the momentum and money flow for $GOLD and GLD, you’ll notice a slight difference in their readings. This disparity could provide some actionable insights.

Take a look at a daily chart of gold futures:

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Compare this to the GLD chart below, which has the same set of indicators.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a slight rise in momentum starting at the pattern’s low shown in the previous chart; currently, the RSI is above the 50-line and rising.
  • The Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) marks the difference between the futures and the ETF. Here, the ADL line has risen above the price whereas it had been moving below it and then unison to it. This paints a picture of bullish accumulation potentially leading price toward a positive breakout.

The daily chart of GLD doesn’t show the same ADL reading.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF GLD. The ADL reading is declining rather than ascending here.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The RSI is the same as the $GOLD chart above, but the ADL in GLD’s chart appears to be descending rather than ascending. This suggests that money flow is decreasing in GLD, while it is increasing in the gold futures market.

Here’s one way to interpret this: If the ADL is rising in the futures but declining in the ETF, it could indicate a divergence in behavior between both markets: institutional and large-scale traders are accumulating positions, signaling confidence in gold, while retail investors are taking profits, less certain about gold’s prospects or more concerned about its risks.

Essentially, this brings up the question: If the institutional traders are the so-called “smart money,” are they going to lead gold higher before the retail crowd jumps in? That’s something to keep in mind as you chart the market.

At the Close

Gold remains a focal point in today’s market, much of it driven by economic and macroeconomic concerns. If gold prices break out above or below its current consolidation range, keep an eye on the key levels. Also, note that institutional actions currently differ from retail sentiment. Is the “smart money” leaning more bullish? That’s something to consider in the days ahead.

Again, the larger economic context is slippery and subject to variants, meaning conditions can change quickly. So, if you want to invest in gold, monitor these changes closely.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Will small cap stocks finally take on a leadership role in 2025? In this video, Dave provides a thorough technical analysis discussion of the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and how that compares to the current technical configuration of the S&P 500 index. He also shares three charts he’ll be watching in the coming weeks to determine whether small caps are more likely to outperform their large cap counterparts.

This video originally premiered on January 14, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

The December Producer Price Index (PPI) came in cooler than expected, as equities rose in early trading, sold off, and then rebounded.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index ($MID), and S&P 600 Small-Cap Index ($SML) closed higher. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) closed lower. There’s concern the equity market is getting toppy.

Will the December CPI and bank earnings on Wednesday be able to juice the markets and turn investors optimistic? Let’s dive in.

FIGURE 1. THE STOCKCHARTS MARKET OVERVIEW PANEL. You can get a big-picture view of the entire stock market in this panel. Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Around the Market in Sectors

Utilities, Financials, Materials, and Industrials were the best-performing sectors, followed by Energy and Real Estate. The StockCharts Market Carpet below gives a bird’s eye view of Tuesday’s stock market’s performance.

FIGURE 2. STOCKCHARTS MARKETCARPET FOR TUESDAY JAN. 14. Utilities, Financials, and Industrials were the top three performing sectors.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

While Technology wasn’t the worst-performing sector — it eked out a 0.26% gain — the largest cap-weighted stocks were in the red. It was a similar scenario in the Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors.

The Healthcare sector was the worst-performing sector on Tuesday, thanks to Eli Lilly’s loss of 6.59%.

Equity indexes have been chopping around. There needs to be more upside movement to confirm further bullishness.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading below their 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is trending lower. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) for both indexes is declining (see chart below).

FIGURE 3. S&P 500 INDEX AND NASDAQ COMPOSITE. The 21-day EMA and MACD need to reverse and turn higher to confirm a reversal.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

The MACD line needs to turn upward and cross above its signal line to confirm a reversal. As of Tuesday’s close, it looks like it will be a while before that happens, but the stock market can shift on a dime.

All Eyes on Banks

Although the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected on Wednesday, investors will have their eyes and ears peeled on bank earnings. Citigroup (C), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Goldman Sachs Group (GS) are up first. Bank earnings set the stage for earnings season, and strong reports from the big banks could fuel investor optimism, which the stock market badly needs. However, banks are an interest rate-sensitive industry group, and a hotter-than-expected CPI number could damper earnings. The dialing back of interest rate cuts this year is front and center in investors’ minds.

The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is trading just below its 21-day EMA and the S&P Financial Sector Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is at 44.44 (see chart below). This is still not bullish — it’ll have to move above 50 — and the EMA needs to turn upward.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF SPDR S&P BANK ETF. Things haven’t looked rosy for banks since the end of November. What will it take to shake this interest-rate-sensitive group of stocks?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The bottom line: A hotter-than-expected CPI and lukewarm earnings from the banks could send the broader indexes lower. Investors seem to be somewhat nervous, so it’s not surprising to see the broader indexes grinding sideways. Add to that the possibility of only one interest rate cut in 2025 and uncertainty surrounding the incoming administration, and you have a situation where you need that inflation number to be cold and bank earnings to be stellar to see positive price moves. You don’t want to miss Wednesday’s stock market action.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum offer an alternative route for building and storing wealth. While directly holding these digital assets is a popular option, investors are also clamoring for financial products such as crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Canada first launched Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2021. These Canadian Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs allow investors to place returns in tax-sheltered accounts like tax-free savings accounts or registered retirement savings plans.

“There is a high demand for a Bitcoin product that has all the features that people love about ETFs — that they trade on an exchange, that they’re liquid,” Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co., told Bloomberg in mid-2021.

Interest has only increased since then. In the US, Bitcoin ETFs’ net assets surpassed US$100 billion on November 21, gaining ground on US gold ETFs. Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, wrote in mid-2023 that the Bitcoin ETF category at large has the potential to surpass the precious metals ETF market in terms of asset value. ‘Bitcoin ETF eventually could become >$300 billion category,’ he stated in the note.

Ethereum ETFs have also become a major talking point. Ethereum is the most widely used blockchain technology, and Ether, the digital currency of this platform, is the second largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin.

With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at the currently available Canadian cryptocurrency ETFs. The list below includes 13 Ether and Bitcoin ETFs available on the Canadian market sorted by assets under management, and all data presented is current as of January 14, 2025.

1. Purpose Bitcoin ETF (TSX:BTCC)

Company Profile

Assets under management: C$3.1 billion

Billed as the world’s first physically settled Bitcoin ETF, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF launched in February 2021 and is backed by Bitcoin in cold storage. This means the fund allows investors to add and sell Bitcoin with no digital wallet required.

Hosted by Canadian investment company Purpose Investments, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF is backed by 25610.96 Bitcoins and has a management expense ratio of 1 percent.

2. CI Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (TSX:BTCX.B)

Company Profile

Assets under management: C$1.23 billion

Launched in March 2021, the CI Galaxy Bitcoin ETF was born out of a partnership between cryptocurrency leaders Galaxy Fund Management and CI Global Asset Management. Galaxy Fund Management is part of Galaxy Digital, a diversified financial services firm with a focus on digital assets and the blockchain technology sector.

The ETF’s objective is to give investors exposure to Bitcoin via an institutional-quality fund platform, as its holdings are wholly Bitcoin and are kept in cold storage. At 0.4 percent, this fund boasts one of the lowest management fees of all the crypto funds on the market.

3. Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF (TSX:FBTC)

Company Profile

Assets under management: C$1.02 billion

The newest Bitcoin fund on this list, the Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF, launched in November 2021. It offers the security of Fidelity’s in-house cold storage services for its holdings.

While it previously had a management fee of 0.4 percent, in line with the CI and Galaxy funds, the Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF lowered it in January 2024 to an ultra-low management fee of 0.39 percent.

4. CI Galaxy Ethereum ETF (TSX:ETHX.B)

Company Profile

Assets under management: C$554.78 million

The CI Galaxy Ethereum ETF, another collaboration between CI and Galaxy, offers investors exposure to the spot Ethereum price through Ether holdings in cold storage. The fund launched on April 20, 2021, the same day as two of the other Ether ETFs on this list.

At the time, CI Global Asset Management suggested that “owning Ether is similar to owning a basket of early-stage, high-growth technology stocks.”

The CI Galaxy Ethereum ETF has notably low management fees of just 0.4 percent.

5. Purpose Ether ETF (TSX:ETHH)

Company Profile

Assets under management: C$410.3 million

The Purpose Ether ETF is a direct-custody Ether ETF that launched on April 20, 2021. This fund holds 94065.95 Ether, which it stores in cold storage.

The Purpose Ether ETF offers investors exposure to the daily price movements of physically settled Ether tokens with a management fee of 1 percent.

6. 3iQ CoinShares Bitcoin ETF (TSX:BTCQ)

Company Profile

Net asset value: C$342.9 million

Launched in March 2021, the 3iQ CoinShares Bitcoin ETF offers exposure to the price movement of Bitcoin in US dollar terms. The company holds its Bitcoin assets in cold storage. This ETF has a management fee of 1 percent.

7. Evolve Bitcoin ETF (TSX:EBIT)

Company Profile

Assets under management: C$270.42 million

Evolve ETFs partnered with cryptocurrency experts, including Gemini Trust Company, CF Benchmarks, Cidel Bank & Trust and CIBC Mellon Global Services, to launch the Evolve Bitcoin ETF. The fund, which holds its own Bitcoin, has a management fee of 0.75 percent.

Launched a week after the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, its holdings of Bitcoin are priced based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate, a once-a-day benchmark index price for Bitcoin denominated in US dollars.

8. Purpose Bitcoin Yield ETF (TSX:BTCY)

Company Profile

Assets under management: C$150 million

The Purpose Bitcoin Yield ETF uses a covered call strategy to generate yield for investors, which involves writing call options on Bitcoin. Call options give the buyer an option to purchase an asset at a specific price on or before a specific date.

Its structure allows the fund to earn income from option premiums while providing investors with exposure to Bitcoin’s price movements. Its distributions are paid monthly.

9. 3iQ CoinShares Ether Staking ETF (TSX:ETHQ)

Company Profile

Net asset value: C$‪103.92 million

Following the success of its Bitcoin ETF, 3iQ Digital Asset Management launched its CoinShares Ether Staking ETF in April 2021. This fund has a similar objective, offering exposure to Ether and its daily US dollar price movements. It also has a management fee of 1 percent.

10. Evolve Ether ETF (TSX:ETHR)

Company Profile

Assets under management: C$80.23 million

The Evolve Ether ETF offers investors an easier route to investing directly in Ether. The fund’s holdings of Ether are priced based on the CME CF Ether-Dollar Reference Rate, a once-a-day benchmark index price for Ether denominated in US dollars. As with the Evolve Bitcoin ETF, the Evolve Ether ETF has a management fee of 0.75 percent.

11. Evolve Cryptocurrencies ETF (TSX:ETC)

Company Profile

Assets under management: C$75.68 million

The Evolve Cryptocurrencies ETF launched in September 2021 as the first multi-cryptocurrency ETF, providing combined exposure to both Bitcoin and Ether.

This product from Evolve ETFs allows investors to diversify their crypto portfolios and provides indirect exposure to the two coins, weighing them by market capitalization and rebalancing its holdings on a monthly basis. Bitcoin makes up the majority of its portfolio.

While this ETF has no management fee, the underlying funds that hold both Bitcoin and Ether have management fees of 0.75 percent plus applicable taxes.

12. Purpose Ether Yield ETF (TSX:ETHY)

Company Profile

Assets under management: C$69.3 million

Like the Purpose Bitcoin Yield ETF, the Purpose Ether Yield ETF offers investors an opportunity to invest in Ether while also generating yield. Purpose Investments lends a portion of its Ether holdings to institutional borrowers and earns interest on those loans.

Investors who purchase shares of this ETF receive a portion of the interest earned in monthly distributions.

13. Fidelity Advantage Ether ETF (TSX:FETH)

Company Profile

Assets under management: C$47.6 million

Following the successful launch of its Bitcoin fund, Fidelity brought its Advantage Ether ETF to market in September 2022, making this the newest Ether ETF in Canada. Its holdings are stored in Fidelity’s in-house cold storage.

The Fidelity Advantage Ether ETF has a management fee of 0.4 percent.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Stock Trend Capital Inc. (CSE: PUMP) (FSE: P0G) (PTC Pink: STOCF) (the ‘Company’ or ‘Stock Trend’) announces that the Company has entered into a loan agreement (the ‘Loan Agreement’) dated January 7, 2025, with 1001070426 Ontario Inc. dba eGOD Digital Labs (‘eGod’ or ‘the ‘Borrower’), whereby the Company has agreed to provide the Borrower with a loan in the amount of $1,000,000 (the ‘Loan’). The Loan is to support the Borrower’s strategic initiatives and business operations.

The Loan: (i) accrues interest on the loan amount at a rate equal to 10% per annum; (ii) matures on June 30, 2026 (the ‘Maturity Date’); and (iii) is secured by first-priority security interest on the personal property of the Borrower, pursuant to a general security agreement.

In connection with the Loan, the Borrower agreed to issue to the Company an anti-dilution warrant (the ‘Anti-Dilution Warrant’), which entitles the Company to exercise the warrant to 25% of the Borrower for nominal consideration. The Borrower also agreed to pay Stock Trend a royalty in the amount of 7% of the revenue generated by the Borrower until a total amount of royalty of $500,000 has been paid to the Company (the ‘Royalty’). In addition, the Company has the right to elect to convert all or part of the Loan, together with any accrued interest and including the full Royalty entitlement, into fully-paid and non-assessable common shares of eGod, which if exercised by the Company may result in the Company owning more than 51% of the Borrower, inclusive of an exercise of the Anti-Dilution Warrant.

We are excited to provide this financial support to eGod Digital Labs and look forward to fostering the growth and success of their operations,’ said Anthony Durkacz, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Stock Trend Capital, ‘This agreement underscores our commitment to investing in high-potential opportunities while ensuring value for our shareholders through robust protections like anti-dilution warrants and royalty payments.’

About eGOD Digital Labs

eGOD Digital Labs is focused on becoming a leader in the Dogecoin and Litecoin mining space. eGOD is dedicated to building sustainable, efficient, and scalable solutions that strengthen these networks. By leveraging advanced mining systems, eGOD aims to support the long-term growth and potential of Dogecoin and Litecoin. For additional information please visit www.egoddigital.com.

About Stock Trend

Stock Trend Capital Inc. is an investment issuer primarily focused on the AI sector, crypto sector, and the Canadian cannabis industry. The issuer intends to focus on investing in private and public entities with strong intellectual property, exceptional management and high growth potential that may be strategically positioned in the market.

On behalf of the Board of Directors of
STOCK TREND CAPITAL INC.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT:
Anthony Durkacz
CEO, Director
Telephone: (416) 720-4360
Email: anthony@stocktrend.com

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This news release contains ‘forward-looking statements’ within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements are based on the opinions, assumptions, factors and estimates of management considered reasonable at the date the statements are made. The opinions, assumptions, factors and estimates which may prove to be incorrect.

Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance, or achievements of the Company to differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking information. Such risks and other factors include, among others: general economic, market, or business conditions; uninsured risks; regulatory changes; and other risks detailed herein and from time to time in the filings made by the Company with securities regulators. Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events, or results to differ from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause such actions, events, or results to differ materially from those anticipated. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate and accordingly readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Forward-looking information in this news release may include statements about the completion of the Loan, the terms of the Loan, the use of proceeds from the Loan, and statements regarding management’s expectations on the Company’s future performance among other statements.

The statements in this press release are made as of the date of this release. Neither the CSE nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the CSE) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Source

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The 2024 manganese market was impacted by several factors including growing demand for battery applications, geopolitical risks, production disruptions and strategic investments.

Positive demand from the electric vehicle sector offered support as automakers increasingly turned to manganese-rich lithium-ion chemistries like lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) to cut costs and reduce reliance on nickel and cobalt.

Meanwhile, supply chain vulnerabilities emerged due to political instability in major producing regions and heightened environmental scrutiny. In response, nations such as the US and Australia accelerated investments in refining facilities to reduce dependence on China and secure their EV battery supply chains.

Later in the year oversupply stemming from weaker than expected Chinese steel demand muted price growth in the space.

“Manganese sulphate prices turned bearish in Q4 … with slow spot buying in China and the effects of weather-related mine supply disruptions in Australia,” a Fastmarkets report from December reads.

Despite these challenges, the metals pricing firm foresees a recovery in the manganese market in the years ahead.

“We expect demand to grow from now and into the 2030s, driven in part by new chemistries like LMFP,” the firm notes. In the short to mid-term, China’s supply base looks set to fulfil global needs of high purity manganese, though there is likely to be a long-term need for a greater high purity manganese capacity.”

2024 trends: Supply disruption

Recounting the most impactful trends in the 2024 manganese market Clare Hanna, senior steel analyst at CRU pointed to several factors.

“The key drivers in 2024 were the outage at South32’s (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF)Groote Eylandt mine, the surge in alternative supplies and the weak state of Chinese demand,” she said.

“This led prices to first rise very sharply and then plummet as the market oversupply became apparent.”

South32 — the world’s largest manganese producer — saw operations suspended at its Australia-based Groote Eylandt mine in March due to a tropical cyclone. A phased return to mining began in June 2024, however the severity of flooding due to the cyclone has impacted a wharf and the company’s ability to export.

In a statement, South32 said it expects exports to resume in Q3 2025.

Some of this reduced 2024 output was offset by purchase declines in China. As Hanna explained, Chinese demand was weak due to lower demand for steel rebar which was driven by weakness of the Chinese real estate sector.

Prices for manganese ore could face headwinds in the year ahead as South32 continues to ramp up Groote Eylandt.

“The return of South32 to the market and the increase in high-grade supply could be a challenge, given the Chinese real estate market is not expected to improve significantly. Steel demand and production in other markets is forecast to improve,” said Hanna.

Key demand drivers for 2025

Prized for their high energy density, automakers are increasingly turning to manganese-based batteries for their cost-effectiveness and reduced reliance on expensive metals like nickel and cobalt.

Although, as Hanna pointed out, the majority of manganese demand is still attributed to the steel sector.

“There is a lot of noise in the market about manganese usage in EV batteries, driven in part by companies looking for finance, and also because downstream, the processing of manganese ore for battery grade manganese products is heavily concentrated in China at the moment,’ she said. “However, it is worth recognising that in terms of manganese ore demand, the share that is going into EV supply chains is very small.”

The senior analyst went on to note that those dynamics are likely to shift in the coming years.

“While [EV sector] volume is growing and the demand from the steel sector is likely to decline over time, demand from steel supply chains will remain the dominant source of manganese ore demand, and therefore the biggest demand side influence on manganese ore prices,” said Hanna.

She went on to explain why the smaller EV market need has dominated the manganese narrative.

“When looking for investment, companies like to align their projects with growing market sectors, so when companies are talking about new mine investments, they often reference the EV supply chain, even if in practice, most of the ore will likely go to ferroalloy producers for consumption in steel production.”

Supply diversification

Like so many of the battery metals, the manganese supply chain is dominated by China, a factor many western nations are trying to grapple with. In an effort to bolster supply outside of China significant investments were made in 2024.

“What we are seeing is a number of projects aimed to produce High Purity Manganese Sulphate (HPMSM) outside of China to reduce OEM EV battery supply chain risk or take advantage of the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act. Some of these are aligned with new or existing upstream mines,” said Hanna.

Despite the plan looking good on paper, the CRU steel specialist pointed out the challenges with building HPMSM supply independent of China.

“While some have pilot plants (some very small), operational plants are still at minimum, a couple of years off,” Hanna said.

She continued: “Production of HPMSM is a chemical process so existing producers of manganese metal or other manganese chemicals would be able to move into this product area more easily than ferroalloy producers, although there are still a lot of technical challenges. There are no ferroalloy producers, outside of China, moving to produce HPMSM.”

Some of those projects in the pipeline include the Manganese Metal Company’s HPMSM Metal to Crystal project in South Africa. Described as a more sustainable process, the Metal to Crystal production method will start with a 5,000 metric ton per annum plant in 2028, followed by a ~30,000 metric ton per annum plant, targeted beyond 2030.

Hanna also referenced South32’s US-based Hermosa project which received a US$20 million grant from the US Department of Defense in May 2024. The monies have been earmarked for the acceleration of domestic production of battery grade manganese.

Manganese processing plants have also attracted US government funding.

In September, Element 25 (ASX:E25:OTCQX:ELMT) secured a US$166 million grant from the US Department of Energy (DoE) under the Battery Materials Processing Grant Program.

The funding infusion will support the construction of E25’s HPMSM facility in Louisiana. The grant is in addition to US$115 million in funding already secured from offtake partners General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Stellantis (NYSE:STLA).

The feedstock for the Louisiana plant will originate from Element 25’s Butcherbird mine in Australia. In November, the company released a new resource estimate for the planned expansion at Butcherbird.

According to the company, the new estimate registers a 142 percent increase in measured and indicated resources, which now total 130 million tonnes at 10.23 percent manganese. Additionally, the site hosts a total resource of 274 million tonnes at 10 percent manganese.

Other notable companies Hanna referenced include: Euro Manganese (TSXV:EMN,OTCQB:EUMNF), which is developing a project in Czech Republic using manganese from old mine tailings, and also looking at plans for a plant in Quebec, Canada.

“Firebird Metals (ASX:FRB,OTC Pink:FRBMF) (in) Australia, has adopted an alternative approach,” she said. “They are partnering with a Chinese group to build an HPMSM plant in China, which could eventually be supplied with ore from an Australian mine.”

Trends to watch

While these supply chain diversification efforts aim to secure and steady output, Hanna warned of some trends to watch in 2025. Top of mind is South32’s Groote Eylandt mine and its ability to restart shipments this year.

In South Africa, she highlighted national rail operator Transnet’s plans for expansion.

“Transnet’s plans for the new port and rail infrastructure at Coega in South Africa are still some way off,” said Hanna. “The company’s performance on the existing rail network and ability to open up the routes beyond traditional miners will influence how much ore needs to be moved via the higher cost rail route.”

plans remain distant, while inefficiencies in the existing rail network could raise transport costs. Gabon’s production expansion in Moanda faces delays due to weak demand, compounded by past disruptions from railway landslides. In Ukraine, war-related damage to production and demand persists, with recovery dependent on potential ceasefire agreements.

Manganese producer Eramet (EPA:ERA), has also faced challenges to its production expansion plans at the Moanda project in Gabon.

“These [plans] were slowed in Q4 by weak demand,” she said. “Work continues on improvements to the Trans Gabon Railway. Landslides and derailments in the past have disrupted supply causing ore price volatility.”

A resolution to the war in Ukraine could also serve as a catalyst to the 2025 supply and demand story.

“Historically Ukraine was a significant producer and consumer of manganese alloys. Both have been slowed by the war. In the event of a ceasefire this year, supply is likely to return faster than demand as the large Mauripol steel plant was destroyed during the Russian invasion,” she added.

According to Hanna, key areas to watch as the year progresses are trade actions and carbon taxes. These include the US investigation into ferrosilicon imports from several countries, paired with the incoming Trump administration may signal broader tariffs.

Elsewhere, the EU’s probe into manganese alloys and ferrosilicon may raise regional prices

“The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is due to come in at the beginning of 2026. Ferromanganese is covered, silicomanganese is not,’ said Hanna. “There is a lot of uncertainty about the impact of this.”

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Boab Metals (ASX:BML) is a base and precious metals explorer and developer progressing toward a final investment decision (FID) on its Sorby Hills project, a world-class lead-silver deposit. Boab Metals is poised to capitalize on the rising demand for lead and silver, delivering value to shareholders and supporting the global transition to sustainable energy systems.

The Sorby Hills project is strategically located 150 km from Wyndham Port providing access to excellent infrastructure, and green power from the Ord River hydroelectric plant. Boab Metals combines technical expertise, sustainable practices, and robust financial planning to advance the Sorby Hills project, which is slated to produce high-grade lead-silver concentrate through conventional open-pit mining.

Boab Metals owns 75 percent of the Sorby Hills Project, with the remaining 25 percent held by Henan Yuguang Gold & Lead Co., China’s largest lead smelting and silver producer. The project boasts a substantial, high-quality resource base of 47.3 million ton resource base at 4.3 percent lead equivalent (123 g/t silver equivalent), including 53 million ounces of contained silver, all with significant exploration upside.

Company Highlights

  • Boab Metals is an ASX-listed base and precious metals explorer and developer with a flagship project poised for near-term production.
  • The Sorby Hills project, Boab’s flagship asset, boasts a high-quality 47.3 Mt resource at 4.3 percent lead equivalent (123 g/t silver equivalent), including 53 Moz contained silver, and is in Western Australia, 50 km northeast of Kununurra.
  • Strong economics underpin the project with an NPV (8 percent) of AU$411 million and an IRR of 37 percent, as confirmed by the completed FEED study. Life-of-mine operating cash flow of AU$1.1 billion with an average annual EBITDA of AU$126 million. Competitive C1 cash cost of US$0.36/lb payable lead (after considering silver credits).
  • Access to green hydroelectric power and existing environmental approvals enhance the project’s sustainability credentials and support reduced operational costs.
  • Committed to community engagement, Boab Metals fosters strong relationships with local stakeholders and supports regional development initiatives.
  • Expert leadership with a proven track record in exploration and development of mining assets

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South Korean authorities investigating President Yoon Suk Yeol have arrived at his official residence in a second attempt to detain the embattled leader for questioning over his short-lived declaration of martial law last month, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.

Vehicles from the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO), which is working with police and the defense ministry to investigate Yoon, were seen arriving at the property early Wednesday, according to Yonhap. Members of the police appeared to be part of the arrest team.

Meanwhile, video from Reuters also showed groups of protesters crowding the main gate of the residence. A white van marked “POLICE” with flashing blue lights was also seen approaching the entrance flanked by uniformed officers.

Despite sub-zero conditions, demonstrators could be heard chanting “resign,” “your time is up” and “take responsibility.”

The crowds were accompanied by lines of uniformed police, and a combination of police buses and protester buses remained outside the residence, blockading the street.

Video from YTN showed a large sign on the back of one bus that read “Yoon Suk Yeol, Step Down” and “Insurrection Department – Yoon Suk Yeol” in Korean. Both slogans are typical for anti-Yoon protests since the president launched his abortive attempt at declaring martial law.

For weeks, the embattled president has been holed up in his fortified residence, surrounded by his Presidential Security Service team, evading arrest as he faces several probes and an impeachment trial following his short-lived decree.

Yoon is wanted for questioning in multiple investigations, including over accusations of leading an insurrection – a crime punishable by life imprisonment or even the death penalty.

Efforts to take him into custody earlier this month were thwarted after an hours-long showdown in which soldiers and members of the presidential security detail blocked some 80 police and investigators from approaching the presidential compound.

Martial law declaration

Yoon declared martial law in a surprise late-night address on December 3, claiming opposition lawmakers had “paralyzed state affairs” and that the move was necessary to “safeguard a liberal South Korea” from the threats posed by “anti-state elements.”

Members of the National Assembly, including some from Yoon’s own party, voted to reverse the declaration some six hours later. Yoon’s order faced fierce backlash from the public and lawmakers across the political spectrum, reviving painful memories of the country’s authoritarian past.

In the weeks since, the country has been in political disarray with parliament also voting to impeach its prime minister and acting president Han Duck-soo, just weeks after it voted to impeach Yoon. The finance minister Choi Sang-mok is now acting president.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The South African government has launched a rescue operation at an abandoned gold mine in the country’s North West province, where at least 109 men have died, a group representing the miners said, after local authorities cut off vital supplies in a dramatic bid to crack down on the country’s illegal mining trade.

As of Tuesday evening, at least 51 bodies and 66 survivors had been pulled out of the Stilfontein mine, according to South African police, with many more feared trapped inside.

While estimates varied on how many men were in the mine, Meshack Mbangula, head of the Mining Affected Communities United in Action (MACUA), had earlier estimated that 500 people were trapped underground.

The video, filmed by one of the miners last week, according to Mbangula, also shows shirtless, emaciated-looking men with protruding bones and ribs.

A man speaking in Zulu, pleads to be rescued in one scene. Another man says: “How many days must we live in a situation like this.”

“Please take us out. Please assist us to come out or if not, please give us food because [there are] people who are dead. We’ve got 109 people dead and we need plastic to wrap them because the smell is too much, we can’t stand the smell,” the miners said in the letter.

Community-led groups like MACUA say they have led the effort to help the trapped miners for months, he said, as police cut off food and vital supplies to the men in November in an attempt to force them out and close the mine.

The police’s move – a self-described crackdown on the illegal mining industry – has drawn criticism from community groups and South Africa’s Federation of Trade Unions (SAFTU), who in November called it “vindictive,” and one that may “end in a tragedy.”

Police spokesperson Athlenda Mathe told reporters in November that food and water supplies to those underground had been halted. “We are stopping and preventing food and water to go down there as a way of forcing these illegal miners to resurface because what they are doing is criminality,” she said.

Miners would face arrest upon resurfacing, according to police.

In November, a South African court ordered police to halt its standoff, provide food to the trapped miners and allow rescue teams to access the mine. The nation’s Human Rights Commission (SAHRC) also said it was investigating the police service for halting vital supplies to the miners.

On Sunday, facing intensifying public pressure and reports that many of the miners had already died, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy said it had begun plans to conduct a rescue operation at the abandoned shaft. The mineral resources department said “the decision to deploy rescue services was made independently” and not mandated by a court.

South Africa harbors up to 100,000 artisanal miners, known locally as “zama zamas” with most of the minerals derived from artisanal mining “sold to the black market, and international illicit mineral traders,” according to SAFTU.

The nation also loses more than $1 billion to illegal mining annually, with the black market trade in gold linked to violent turf wars, according to a parliamentary brief.

This post appeared first on cnn.com