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The Santa Claus rally has long been attractive to investors looking to end the year on a high note.

North American markets have already experienced robust growth throughout 2024, but the prospect of a year-end rally could offer one final opportunity for gains before heading into the new year.

The Santa Claus rally is a period between the final trading days of December and the first days of January when stocks tend to climb. While this seasonal uptick isn’t guaranteed, historical data shows that markets rise more often than not during this window, driven by investor optimism, low trading volumes and year-end portfolio adjustments.

This year, with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) up over 27 percent year-to-date, spurred by significant growth in the technology, energy and financial sectors, investors are closely watching for signs that the rally will materialize once again.

As the holiday season unfolds, market participants are positioning to benefit from a potentially strong finish to 2024.

When does the Santa Claus rally start?

The Santa Claus rally typically occurs over the final five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. This narrow window often yields modest, yet consistent, returns for investors who time the market correctly.

While the rally’s timeframe is traditionally short, its effects can ripple through the market into early January. Essentially, a strong performance during this period can set the tone for January.

However, the exact timing of the Santa Claus rally can vary. Some analysts suggest that the rally has started earlier in recent years as investors attempt to front run the effect by increasing their positions in mid-December. This shift may blur the lines between the Santa Claus rally and broader December market upswings.

Despite skepticism in some quarters, historical data supports the existence of the Santa Claus rally.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.3 percent gain during this period, with a positive performance nearly 80 percent of the time. For its part, the Nasdaq Composite Index (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) has performed even better, averaging gains of 3.1 percent during the same window all the way back to 1971.

This year markets turned down in mid-December, but as of Christmas Eve the Santa Claus rally seems to have arrived — the S&P 500 gained 1.1 percent that day alone, and the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 1.34 percent.

Is the Santa Claus rally reliable?

While the Santa Claus rally is well documented, not every year delivers the expected results.

Columnist Mark Hulbert has expressed skepticism about the event in the past, noting that there is no definitive evidence that the market consistently outperforms during this period.

“An analysis of the past century reveals that the stock market in the weeks prior to Christmas is no more likely to rally than at other times of the year. (I suggest investors) ignore any arguments based on an alleged Santa Claus Rally,” Hulbert warned in an opinion piece posted on MarketWatch in 2018.

In 2019, for example, the market experienced volatility in December, defying the usual pattern.

Other analysts have a more optimistic perspective. Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, acknowledges that market reactions to US Federal Reserve decisions often spark volatility.

However, he believes that the recent selloff this year — which was driven by hawkish Fed commentary — could pave the way for a rally as investors return from holiday breaks.

“Markets have a really bad habit of overreacting to Fed policy moves,” Cox explained to TheStreet. “This seems more like, ‘I’m leaving for Christmas break, so I’ll sell and start up next year.’”

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, also has a bullish outlook for 2025.

Hirsch, who is the son of Yale Hirsch, the first person to record the Santa Claus rally, emphasized the significance of seasonal patterns, including the Santa Claus rally and the January Barometer.

In his view, if the S&P 500 posts gains in January, the market is likely to maintain positive momentum for the rest of the year. This perspective aligns with the historical analysis outlined in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, which shows the Santa Claus rally occurring approximately 80 percent of the time since 1950.

Despite the varying takes, many investors view the rally as a psychological phenomenon — one that influences market sentiment even if the returns are marginal.

Strategies for the Santa Claus rally

Now that the Santa Claus rally seems to be underway, investors interested in joining in have a variety of options, including domestic markets, international diversification or targeted sector plays such as mega-cap tech stocks.

As always, consulting with a financial advisor and conducting thorough research remains essential. While the Santa Claus rally offers potential rewards, market conditions can shift quickly, making flexibility and prudence key to success.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Volunteers helping to clean up the oil spill on Russia’s Black Sea coast are appealing to Russian President Vladimir Putin for more assistance, as they grapple with environmental havoc across more than 35 miles of coastline.

Two Russian tankers carrying thousands of tons of fuel were badly damaged in stormy weather near the Black Sea earlier this month, leading to an oil spill, according to Russian state media. The tankers were carrying more than 9,000 tons of oil, according to TASS, much of which spilled into the Kerch Strait between mainland Russia and annexed Crimea.

Putin last week labelled the spill an “environmental disaster.”

At least 3,700 tons of heavy oil were spilled, though the actual volume may be higher, according to Greenpeace Ukraine. Video from the scene showed blackened waves washing the heavy fuel oil known as mazut onto rocky shores. In one video, a bird – its wings thick with oil – could be seen squawking in distress as it was pummeled by waves, unable to lift its wings and fly away.

In a video message addressed to the Russian president and prime minister on Tuesday, volunteers said that local authorities in Russia’s Krasnodar region did not have the means to clean up the oil spill.

“Local authorities are not coping, they do not have the resources for this. The only resource is ordinary people with shovels, such a catastrophe cannot be defeated with shovels!” one volunteer said in the video, as they requested federal resources and specialists to be sent to the area. They also appealed for foreign specialists to be sent, warning that the scale of the pollution will have an international impact.

“It was recently announced that 5,000 volunteers and rescuers are working to eliminate the consequences. We believe that in such a vast disaster area, even 50,000 people with shovels are not able to solve the problem and save the situation,” the volunteer added.

On Thursday, Putin suggested the captains of the vessels were to blame for the incident. “Why am I saying that this is a big disaster and a catastrophe? Because almost 40% of the fuel has leaked,” he said, adding that efforts to recover the vessels were hampered by the ongoing storm.

Russia’s Investigative Committee will open a criminal case into the incident, Russian state media TASS reported.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Haiti’s online media association said two reporters were killed and several others were wounded in a gang attack on Tuesday on the reopening of Port-au-Prince’s biggest public hospital.

Street gangs have taken over an estimated 85% of Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, and they forced the closure of the General Hospital early this year. Authorities had pledged to reopen the facility Tuesday but as journalists gathered to cover the event, suspected gang members opened fire in a vicious Christmas Eve attack.

Robest Dimanche, a spokesman for the Online Media Collective, identified the dead journalists as Markenzy Nathoux and Jimmy Jean. Dimanche said an unspecified number of reporters had also been wounded in the attack, which he blamed on the Viv Ansanm coalition of gangs.

Haiti’s interim president, Leslie Voltaire, said in an address to the nation that journalists and police were among the victims of the attack. He did not specify how many casualties there were, or give a breakdown for the dead or wounded.

“I send my sympathies to the people who were victims, the national police and the journalists,” Voltaire said, pledging “this crime is not going to go unpunished.”

A video posted online by the reporters trapped inside the hospital showed what appeared to be two lifeless bodies of men on stretchers, their clothes bloodied. One of the men had a lanyard with a press credential around his neck.

Radio Télé Métronome initially reported that seven journalists and two police officers were wounded. Police and officials did not immediately respond to calls for information on the attack.

Johnson “Izo” André, considered Haiti’s most powerful gang leader and part of a gang known as Viv Ansanm, which that has taken control of much of Port-au-Prince, posted a video on social media claiming responsibility for the attack.

The video said the gang coalition had not authorized the hospital’s reopening.

Haiti has seen journalists targeted before. In 2023, two local journalists were killed in the space of a couple of weeks — radio reporter Dumesky Kersaint was fatally shot in mid-April that year, while journalist Ricot Jean was found dead later that month.

In July, former Prime Minister Garry Conille visited the Hospital of the State University of Haiti, more widely known as the General Hospital, after authorities regained control of it from gangs.

The hospital had been left ravaged and strewn with debris. Walls and nearby buildings were riddled with bullet holes, signaling fights between police and gangs. The hospital is across the street from the national palace, the scene of several battles in recent months.

Gang attacks have pushed Haiti’s health system to the brink of collapse with looting, setting fires, and destroying medical institutions and pharmacies in the capital. The violence has created a surge in patients and a shortage of resources to treat them.

Haiti’s health care system faces additional challenges during the rainy season, which is likely to increase the risk of water-borne diseases. Poor conditions in camps and makeshift settlements have heightened the risk of diseases like cholera, with over 84,000 suspected cases in the country, according to UNICEF.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Brazilian authorities are investigating after a bridge collapsed Sunday, killing at least four people and sending trucks loaded with sulfuric acid and pesticides plunging into a river, raising concerns about water contamination.

More than a dozen people are missing after the 533-meter-long Juscelino Kubitschek de Oliveira bridge – which connects the northeastern cities of Estreito and Aguiarnópolis – gave way. Four trucks, three cars, and three motorbikes fell into the Tocantins River, according to the state-run Agencia Brasil news agency.

Three women and one man died in the collapse, Agencia Brasil reported, citing the Maranhão Fire Department.

The trucks were carrying about 25,000 liters of pesticides and 76 tons of sulfuric acid, according to the National Agency for Water and Basic Sanitation, raising concerns about environmental damage. Authorities warned residents not to drink or bathe in the river’s water.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sent his condolences to the families of the victims in a post to social media Monday, and said his government will support local authorities in dealing with the emergency.

Brazil’s National Department of Transport Infrastructure has opened an investigation into the cause of the collapse, the government said in a statement.

The Navy will also deploy equipment and boats to continue the search for the 13 people who are missing, the government said.

The government also said it will hire a new company for the design and construction of a new bridge that will be ready in about a year.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A passenger plane crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau on Wednesday, local authorities said, without specifying the number of people on board.

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations said its teams found the aircraft on fire upon arrival on the scene.

“Rescue units began extinguishing the fire. Currently, information about the victims is being clarified, and according to preliminary information, there are survivors,” the ministry said.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Russia launched aerial attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector “on a massive scale” overnight into Wednesday, local authorities said, with explosions reported across the country amid intensified bombardments that have left Ukraine in a precarious position while the war grinds into a third winter.

At least three people were injured in the northeastern city of Kharkiv – less than 20 miles from the Russian border – Ukraine’s national police said, adding that residential buildings and civilian infrastructure were damaged in the attack. At least seven missile strikes targeted the city, regional Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.

Russia attacked “the energy sector again on a massive scale,” Ukraine’s energy minister German Halushchenko said on his Facebook page. Ukraine’s energy operator imposed emergency blackouts in several parts of the country, the minister added.

Poland scrambled fighter jets in response to a Russian missile threat in western Ukraine, according to the Polish Operational Command.

Wednesday’s attack follows a deadly Russian strike on the city of Kryvyi Rih on Christmas Eve. At least one person was killed and 17 others were injured after a Russian missile struck a residential building in the city – the hometown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

And last Friday, at least one person was killed and several embassies were damaged in a Russian missile attack on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv. That attack came a day after Russian leader Vladimir Putin challenged Ukraine to a “duel” in his end-of-year conference, prompting Zelensky to call the Russian leader a “dumbass.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Stock futures are trading slightly lower Monday morning as investors gear up for the final month of 2024. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.18%, alongside declines in Dow Jones Industrial Average futures and Nasdaq 100 futures, which dropped 0.13% and 0.17%, respectively. The market’s focus is shifting to upcoming economic data, particularly reports on manufacturing and construction spending, ahead of this week’s key labor data releases.

November was a standout month for equities, with the S&P 500 futures rallying to reflect the index’s best monthly performance of the year. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved all-time highs during Friday’s shortened trading session, with the Dow briefly surpassing 45,000. Small-cap stocks also saw robust gains, with the Russell 2000 index surging over 10% in November, buoyed by optimism around potential tax cuts.

As trading kicks off in December, investors are keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments in Europe, where France’s CAC 40 index dropped 0.77% amid political concerns, while Germany’s DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 showed smaller declines.

S&P 500 futures will likely continue to act as a key barometer for market sentiment, particularly as traders assess the impact of upcoming economic data and global market developments.

S&P 500 Index Chart Analysis

This 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 Index shows a recent trend where the index attempted to break above the resistance level near 6,044.17 but retraced slightly to close at 6,032.39, reflecting a minor decline of 0.03% in the session. The candlestick pattern indicates some indecisiveness after a steady upward momentum seen earlier in the day.

On the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator, the value sits at 62.07, having declined from the overbought zone above 70 earlier. This suggests that the bullish momentum might be cooling off, and traders could anticipate a short-term consolidation or slight pullback. However, with RSI above 50, the overall trend remains positive, favoring buyers.

The index’s recent low of 5,944.36 marks a key support level, while the high at 6,044.17 could act as resistance. If the price sustains above the 6,020 level and RSI stabilizes without breaking below 50, the index could attempt another rally. Conversely, a drop below 6,020 could indicate a bearish shift.

In conclusion, the index displays potential for continued gains, but traders should watch RSI levels and price action near the support and resistance zones for confirmation.

The post Stock Futures Lower after S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.18% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

Stock futures climbed on Wednesday, driven by strong performances from Salesforce and Marvell Technology, following upbeat quarterly earnings. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 215 points (0.5%), while S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced by 0.7%.

Salesforce surged 12% after reporting fiscal third-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations, showcasing robust demand in the enterprise software sector. Meanwhile, chipmaker Marvell jumped 14% after surpassing earnings estimates and providing optimistic fourth-quarter guidance, indicating resilience in the semiconductor industry.

This movement follows a mixed session on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed with small gains, while the Dow dipped slightly. The broader market has experienced a modest start to December, contrasting with November’s robust rally, but analysts anticipate a resurgence in momentum. LPL Financial’s George Smith pointed out that December historically sees strong market performance, particularly in the latter half of the month.

However, economic data introduced some caution. ADP’s report revealed that private payrolls grew by just 146,000 in November, missing estimates of 163,000. This signals potential softness in the labor market, with investors now awaiting Friday’s November jobs report for further clarity.

S&P 500 Index Chart Analysis

Based on the provided stock chart, which appears to be a 15-minute candlestick chart for the S&P 500 Index, here’s a brief analysis:

The chart shows a clear upward trend, with higher highs and higher lows indicating bullish momentum over the analyzed period. The index has steadily climbed from a low of approximately 5,855 to a recent high of 6,053.58, suggesting strong buying interest.

Key resistance is observed near 6,050-6,053 levels, as the price has struggled to break above this zone in the most recent sessions. If the index breaches this level with strong volume, it could lead to further upward movement. Conversely, failure to break out may lead to a pullback, with potential support around the 6,000 psychological level and 5,980, where consolidation occurred previously.

The candlestick patterns show relatively small wicks, indicating limited volatility, which could imply steady market confidence. However, the bullish rally could be overextended, warranting caution for traders, especially if any negative catalysts emerge.

In summary, the short-term trend is bullish, but traders should monitor resistance levels and volume for signs of a breakout or reversal. It’s also essential to watch broader market factors, as indices are often influenced by macroeconomic data and sentiment.

The post S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.7% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

In today’s free DecisionPoint Trading Room Carl discusses volume spikes and how we have to analyze big volume spikes carefully to determine whether they express a confirmation of a move or whether they are a special case and do not really provide insight.

Carl goes over the signal tables and notes there are quite a few signals getting ready to change. The Bias Table reveals short-term weakness.

A complete market review follows with a look at the SPY and all the relevant DP indicators. Carl covers not only the market, but also the Dollar, Gold, Bitcoin, Crude Oil, Yields and Bonds among other asset classes.

After market coverage, Carl walks us through the Magnificent Seven’s charts to find strength and weakness in the short and intermediate terms with a look at both the daily and weekly charts.

Erin takes the show over and covers the current configuration of the sectors to determine where sector rotation is occurring. Defensive areas of the market are not performing very well so investors don’t seem to be hedging bets just yet.

The pair finish the program with a review of viewers symbol requests that included AMD, AVGO and PLTR.

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01:12 DP Signal Tables

03: 50 Market Overview (05:16 – Volume Spikes)

15:05 Magnificent Seven

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30:20 Sector Rotation

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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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When quickly glancing at the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Reports Dashboard panel, one stock that popped up on Monday, albiet briefly, was Meta Platforms, Inc. (META). The stock has a year-to-date performance of over 70% according to the StockCharts Symbol Summary page and, after its recent pullback, the stock could be one to consider adding to your portfolio. You can gain exposure to META either with the underlying or via options.

Analyzing META’s Stock Chart

The weekly chart below shows the uptrend in META stock is at a crossroads — it could go up or down. The stock is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), the SCTR score is at 79 — it has crossed above my 76 threshold level — and the relative strength index (RSI) has been moving sideways between the 50 and 70 levels since April 2024.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF META STOCK PRICE. The stock is in an uptrend with a rising SCTR score. The RSI needs to move higher to indicate rising momentum.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Turning to the daily chart, META pulled back from its all-time high and could be ready for a reversal to the upside. Last Friday, the stock closed at its 50-day SMA and bounced higher from there on Monday. It closed shy of $600 per share, at the top of its daily range. These are early signs of an upside move, but the SMA appears to be flattening.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF META STOCK. The uptrend isn’t obvious on the daily chart; META’s stock price could go in either direction. The PPO in the lower panel needs to show bullish momentum and there needs to be upside follow-through in price to confirm a reversal to the upside.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The trading volume is relatively low, but, given it’s a short holiday week, it’s probably not a good representation of momentum. The percentage price oscillator (PPO) is still negative. There should be upside follow-through in META’s stock price, which could result in the shorter moving average crossing above the longer moving average in the PPO. This would confirm a bullish reversal.

META is in a spot where the price could move in either direction. The stock is trading between its 50-day SMA and a resistance level it hit twice in October. A break below the 50-day SMA would mean watching the $575 level, its next support level. This coincides with its December 2 breakout and previous support and resistance levels. Two lower support levels are its 100-day SMA and the $550 level.

If META’s stock price were to reverse and move higher, its price point of around $600 a share would be steep. Buying 50 shares will cost you about $30,000. An alternative would be to consider options on META.

Options Trade Ideas for META

Looking at the OptionsPlay Explorer (click Options under Tools & Resources in the menu to the left of the chart, then the OptionsPlay button), buying a Feb 21 595/695 call vertical spread would cost $3,335 and have a potential return of almost 200%. But this can change, so you want to monitor any open position carefully.

FIGURE 3. A CALL VERTICAL SPREAD FOR META. The return of 199.85% is respectable, but remember, things change especially as the option approaches expiration so you still need to monitor your trade carefully.Image source: OptionsPlay Strategy Center from StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The biggest risk with this trade is META will report earnings before expiration. With a stock like META, volatility tends to be high ahead of earnings, which could drastically impact your trading results. In such a scenario, you have several choices. You could close the position before expiration, especially if you’ve made a decent profit; you could roll the trade to a further expiration; or you could modify the trade and select an expiration date before the earnings report. Click the Modify button and change the expiration dates and/or strike prices of the legs.

If META’s stock price moves lower, consider applying bearish options strategies. Click the bearish button above the risk graphs to see the three optimal strategies to apply. Buying a Feb 21 600/505 put vertical would generate a return of over 200%, with the trade costing you $2,875.

Options are very flexible instruments, and your cash outlay is much lower than buying shares of META. Regardless of which way META’s price moves, there’s an options strategy you can apply.  So add META to your ChartLists and, if you have an options-enabled trading account, it’s worth exploring the OptionsPlay Strategy Center on StockCharts.com.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.