“Our leader forever” was a slogan one often saw in Syria during the era of President Hafez al-Assad, father of today’s Syrian president.

The prospect that the dour, stern Syrian leader would live forever was a source of dark humor for many of my Syrian friends when I lived and worked in Aleppo in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Hafez al-Assad died in June 2000. He wasn’t immortal after all.

His regime, however, lives on under the leadership of his son Bashar al-Assad.

There were moments when the Bashar regime’s survival looked in doubt. When the so-called Arab Spring rolled across the region in 2011, toppling autocrats in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, and mass protests broke out in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria, some began to write epitaphs for the Assad dynasty.

But Syria’s allies – Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Russia – came to the rescue. For the past few years the struggle in Syria between a corrupt, brutal regime in Damascus and a divided, often extreme opposition seemed frozen in place.

Once shunned by his fellow Arab autocrats, Bashar al-Assad was gradually regaining the dubious respectability Arab regimes afford one another.

Was the nightmare of the Syrian civil war coming to an end? Had Bashar al-Assad won? Certainly, that was the assumption of many, despite that fact that large parts of Syria were controlled by a US-backed Kurdish militia and Turkish-supported Sunni factions; that Hezbollah, Iran and Russia propped up the regime; that the US controlled areas in eastern Syria; that Israel conducted air strikes whenever and wherever it saw fit; and that ISIS, though defeated, still managed to launch hit-and-run attacks.

That the government in Damascus was still standing after all that seemed an accomplishment in itself.

Yet it was an illusion of regime victory, suddenly shattered this week after the opposition, led by the once al-Qaeda affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra – rebranded as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham – launched an offensive out of Idlib province and in just 72 hours managed to storm all the way to the center of Aleppo.

By Saturday evening, Syrian accounts on social media were buzzing about government forces collapsing across the northern part of the country, with rebels advancing on the central city of Hama. It was there, in early 1982, that Bashar’s father had his army and intelligence services slaughter thousands of his opponents, ending an uprising led by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Why, in the span of just a few days, has the dam broken?

The obvious explanation is that Syria’s key allies – Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah – are all under pressure and let their guard down.

Hezbollah – which played a key role in bolstering the regime during the darkest days of the civil war – pulled most of its troops back home after October 7, 2023, to fight Israel, which has subsequently killed most of the group’s senior leadership.

Russia also played a key role in shoring up the government in Damascus after it dispatched troops and warplanes to Syria in September 2015. Yet now Moscow’s top priority is the war in Ukraine. And, finally, Iran’s advisers and bases in Syria have been under frequent attack by Israel over the last year.

Beyond all this, there is the basic reality of longevity. The Assad dynasty has been in power for 53 years, since 1971. While its mere survival is an accomplishment, it has little else to show for it.

Endemic corruption and mismanagement were a burden on the economy even before the civil war broke out in 2011. Since then, life for the average Syrian has gone from bad to worse. The war has left hundreds of thousands dead, while millions more have been either internally displaced for driven into exile.

Time and time again since 1971 the Assad dynasty has survived internal and external challenges and lived to fight another day. Yet nothing, not regimes, not leaders, lasts forever. Everything eventually comes to an end.

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s brief stop in Hawaii may have appeared understated – no formal US reception, no grand speeches – but its implications extend far beyond floral wreaths and banquets.

On his way to the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau – three of Taiwan’s remaining handful of diplomatic allies – Lai was using the visit to underscore Taiwan’s diplomatic resilience amid intensifying pressure from Beijing. It also comes as Taiwan contends with the upcoming leadership change inside the White House.

Though billed as an unofficial transit, the trip drew scrutiny, particularly from China, which condemned Lai’s visit and is expected to respond with military drills near Taiwan. This was more than a layover; it reaffirmed Taiwan’s partnerships with the US and other democracies – alliances Beijing is eager to undermine.

China’s reaction to Lai’s visit was predictably fierce. A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office called it “a provocative act” and insisted that efforts to seek Taiwan independence “are doomed to fail.”

On Sunday, Beijing’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it “firmly opposes any form of US connivance or support for ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists and their separatist activities.”

“China strongly condemns the US’s arranging for Lai Ching-te’s ‘stopover’ and has lodged serious protests with the US,” it said in a statement.

According to Kolas Yotaka, a former spokesperson for Lai and his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, such responses are routine.

Taiwanese security agencies anticipate that Beijing – which claims the self-governing island as its own territory – will use Lai’s trip as a pretext for military drills near Taiwan, potentially under the codename “Joint Sword-2024C.” Such exercises, often accompanied by propaganda campaigns, are a familiar tactic. Beijing has staged similar displays of force following high-profile interactions between Taiwan and the US, including former President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to California last year.

“This kind of suppression will not stop,” Yotaka warned. “We have to assume the worst is yet to come.”

US-Taiwan ties

Lai’s Hawaii visit comes at a critical juncture in US-Taiwan relations. As the US transitions to a second Donald Trump administration, Taiwan’s leaders face significant uncertainties. While Trump’s first term saw increased arms sales to Taiwan, his recent comments suggesting Taiwan should “pay for its defense” hint at a more transactional approach.

Taiwan does largely pay for its defense, through billions of dollars spent on US-made weapons. And unlike Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, it is not shielded by a mutual defense treaty with the United States.

Before departing Taiwan, Lai emphasized shared democratic values in global partnerships. “I want to use the values of democracy, peace, and prosperity to expand our cooperation with allies and show the world that Taiwan is not just a model of democracy but a vital force for peace and stability,” he said.

Some critics question the value of Taiwan’s relationships with small Pacific nations, but Yotaka firmly disagrees. “If a country is dismissed as small and unimportant, then Taiwan could be similarly dismissed,” she said. “These relationships are not just symbolic – they are critical for Taiwan’s security.”

Alliances with nations such as the Marshall Islands and Palau may lack the weight of those with larger powers, but offer platforms for engagement and bolster Taiwan’s global presence.

Lai’s trip, including his quietly significant Hawaii stop, highlights Taiwan’s ongoing fight for recognition and sovereignty as a frontline democracy confronting authoritarian pressure.

“No single person can save Taiwan,” Yotaka said. “Only a strong alliance of democracies can make a difference.”

As Beijing ups the pressure and the global power balance shifts, Taiwan’s future depends on its ability to adapt, innovate, and rally allies. Lai’s journey across the Pacific is an attempt to do just that – a calculated move in a long, high-stakes geopolitical game.

More than three months after the $40 million Bayesian superyacht sank off the coast of Sicily, killing seven people including British tech titan Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter, plans to raise the luxury vessel are on the horizon.

And it will cost around $30 million to bring it to shore, according to those who want to manage the complex salvage.

This week, a consortium of insurers led by British Marine, which insure the yacht owned by the Lynch family, presented eight possible salvage plans to the prosecutor’s office in Termini Imerese, near the Porticello fishing port where the yacht went down in bad weather in the early morning of August 19, according to both the consortium and the prosecutor’s office.

The groups that tendered bids for the salvage operation have not been publicly named and are under strict non-disclosure gag orders set by prosecutor Raffaele Cammarano, who is in charge of the preliminary criminal investigation.

The remaining plans all involve rotating the 55.9-meter (184-foot) yacht, which weighs 534 tons, nearly 90 degrees onto the seabed without removing the fuel or dismantling the 72-meter (236-foot) mast.

The wreckage now rests on its right side some 50 meters (164 feet) below sea level, meaning the tip of the mast will stick out above the surface some 22 meters (72 feet) once the yacht is upright on the seabed and before it is lifted out of the water.

Plans vary on how to best raise it once stabilized. Some suggest using a harness system and giant cranes on salvage barges or specially-built piers to lift it, others a buoyancy system similar to what was used to right the Costa Concordia cruise ship. That ship sank off the Tuscan island of Giglio in 2012 and the subsequent marine salvage operation remains the largest and most expensive ever attempted. A buoyancy system would incorporate balloon-like devices that would float the vessel slowly.

Once the Bayesian superyacht is righted on the seabed and lifted to the surface of the water, it will either be towed, carried, or sailed to a secure port depending on the condition of the hull. It will most likely be taken to the nearby port of Palermo, some 8.4 nautical miles away, where it will be sequestered by law enforcement officials who will investigate the cause of the disaster and recover any sensitive data onboard.

Fifteen people survived the accident, including Lynch’s wife Angela Bacares and nine crew members. The ship’s captain, New Zealander James Cutfield, the engineer and a deckhand are all under investigation for manslaughter but have been allowed to leave the country.

The other crew members and passengers were questioned at length in the days after the accident. No formal criminal charges have yet been filed.

The prosecutor Cammarano said that the criminal investigation into culpability will hinge on what investigators find when the ship is brought to shore, including whether doors were left open or improperly secured, or whether a design flaw led to the sinking.

The salvage plans include ensuring that the hull, doors and mast stay intact to aid in the investigation. Bayesian manufacturer Perini Navi has said the yacht was “unsinkable” and blames the captain and his crew for negligence that caused the vessel’s demise.

The superyacht, which was originally named Salute and then renamed after the Bayesian computation theory when Lynch’s family bought it, was kitted out with luxury fixtures and state-of-the-art navigational technology, as well as watertight safes containing what is believed to be highly sensitive data that Lynch always traveled with.

The yacht is insured for around $2.1 billion, according to records filed in Italy, which lists several different insurance companies that covered the ship for liability as well as its engine and hull.

Once the recovery plan has been chosen, the prosecutor’s office will have to sign off on the decision to make sure the salvage plan does not compromise the criminal investigation.

The Italian Coast Guard and Civil Protection agencies, which will secure the port, will also have to approve the salvage plan, which is expected to begin in mid to late January and wrap up by February. After the physical investigation of the vessel, the prosecutor will determine whether any manslaughter or other charges are filed.

In his speech marking his election win, President-elect Donald Trump hailed a new “golden age of America” and claimed to have pulled off the “greatest political movement of all time.”

The president-elect and his camp celebrated the Republican’s political comeback as a triumph against “wokeism,” liberal immigration and other Biden-era policies.

Europe’s far-right is taking notes.

Many of Europe’s populists are hoping that the return of Trump – a transatlantic ally who promotes the same conservative Christian values and shares the same disdain for progressive politics – will help to serve their interests back home and further normalize their anti-immigrant, nation-first rhetoric.

“Congratulations President Trump… Never stop, always keep fighting and win elections,” Geert Wilders, the populist leader of the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV), wrote on X on November 6.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-leader Alice Weidel also offered her congratulations and declared that it was not “woke Hollywood” but rather the “working American people” that decided the election.

For Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, of the Fidesz party, it was a “much needed victory for the world.”

However, Armida van Rij, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, stresses the importance of not viewing far-right parties in Europe as one homogenous group. Yet, there are common overlapping themes among Europe’s populists that are also present in Trump’s playbook.

Van Rij points to the “anti-woke, traditional values, anti-green transition and the anti-migration agenda.”

Europe’s Green Deal has faced backlash from far-right groups who want to weaken climate legislation or ignore climate action entirely. Similarly, Trump has promised to take a wrecking ball to virtually all of President Joe Biden’s efforts to reduce carbon emissions and accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels.

‘Normalizing and amplifying ideas’

This sentiment is clear when looking at the language employed by the far-right; In Austria, provocative anti-migration slogans such as “homeland love instead of Moroccan thieves” are the norm for the Freedom Party (FPÖ). In Germany, anti-Islam sentiment has been palpable in AfD posters with the tagline “Burkas? We prefer bikinis.”

Such rhetoric seems shocking to many who read it. But, according to analysis from the Center for European Reform, a London-based thinktank focused on European integration, Trump will strengthen Europe’s far-right by “normalizing and amplifying” their ideas. Trump himself has employed controversial rhetoric while vocalizing his hardline views on immigration, calling the US a “garbage can for the world.”

One far-right leader who on the surface looks set to benefit from a Trump presidency is Hungary’s long-standing leader, Viktor Orbán. He has been among the most prominent of Europe’s populists voicing his support for Trump and even said he toasted to his election victory with vodka, according to the Agence France-Presse.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest ally in Europe, Orbán has been ostracized by the bloc for his introduction of anti-LQBTQ laws, his increasingly authoritarian rule in his home country and his soft approach to Russia. While provoking the ire of his European peers, Orbán’s relationship with Trump appears positive, with Orbán endorsing his presidency, and Trump touting the prime minister’s backing.

Van Rij believes that with Trump in power in the US, Orbán could “feel further emboldened to put aside any rule of law concerns, whether that’s domestically or within an EU context,” reasoning that “if Trump can do that, why should anyone follow rule of law.” Trump earlier this week had his last remaining federal criminal case, relating to illegally retained classified documents as well as charges related to election subversion, dismissed by a US court.

With Trump in the White House, Orbán and other populist European leaders who have a softer approach to Russia could feel emboldened in their calls to end the war in Ukraine. In Romania, far-right populist Calin Georgescu who has risen to prominence and is set to face a center-right opposition leader in a presidential election runoff, in 2022 described Putin as a “man who loved his country.”

Trump has been vocal in his goal to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, even claiming in July that he could settle the conflict in one day. He has also been accused of cozying up to dictators, including Putin.

“As we know, any kind of peace agreement on Putin’s terms would be terrible for Ukraine and terrible for European security,” Van Rij stresses.

“Trump’s reelection purely underscores all of that.”

‘Warm air of historical righteousness’

Overall, Van Rij sees “a lot of convergence in thinking” between Trump and some of Europe’s populist parties.

But, despite the fanfare with which Trump’s reelection was met with, surface-level similarities may soon reveal underlying key conflicts of interest.

“There’s a bit of a contradiction between (populists) feeling like they’ve got their man in the White House, versus the actual implications for their countries of his policies,” Van Rij believes.

She points to economic policy as a prominent example.

The president-elect’s promise of an America First trade policy has the EU bloc on a knife edge. And the fallout could hit populist leaders hoping to gain power in Europe.

France’s Marine Le Pen, who leads the populist National Rally (RN) party, offered a more muted response to Trump’s election win – perhaps an indication of a populist leader showing early signs of concern.

Data from Eurostat shows that France was the fourth-largest EU exporter of goods to the United States in 2023. Van Rij says France would therefore be disproportionately hard-hit by Trump’s America First trade policy. Further, Le Pen, whose party holds a large number of seats in parliament, might be concerned that any trade tariffs on Europe could impact her campaign for the French presidency.

Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, also sees why Le Pen could be concerned about her chances of gaining power.

Earlier this month, French prosecutors asked for prison time and a five-year ban from politics for Le Pen, potentially derailing her bid to become president in 2027.

There is also reason to believe that Orbán’s celebrations are premature. The Hungarian leader’s strong business ties with China’s Xi Jinping could prove to be a major sticking point. Hungary has successfully attracted Chinese foreign investment to the country, and the close relationship is already causing concern among some Republicans.

“China is seen as arch enemy number one by some in the Republican party, and Trump shares that view,” Van Rij says. “That’s an interesting contradiction and something Orbán will have to face and reckon with at some point. I think the US will try to force Orbán in one direction or the other. Orbán won’t like that because he likes being able to place different bets.”

Similarly, Fix sees Orbán running into difficulties with trying to “court” Trump and Xi at the same time.

Fix says that while a Trump win “definitely emboldens European populists and inoculates them against criticism from Brussels,” we must not forget that “European populists are divided amongst each other – Le Pen does not get along with (Italian Prime Minister Giorgia) Meloni, for example, and no one gets along with the AfD.”

“The diversity of Europe’s populists will be the greatest challenge to benefiting from the warm air of historical righteousness coming from DC,” Fix believes.

“Of course, all populists parties share the migration topic, and the anti-left rhetoric. But on economic policy? Big divergences between Trump and Le Pen. Foreign policy? Meloni has been a Ukraine supporter. Trump not.

“The closer you zoom in, the more nuanced it becomes.”

Syrian and Russian jets have carried out strikes on opposition forces in northern Syria in retaliation for the sudden offensive that has cost the regime control of the country’s second largest city, Aleppo.

The offensive has also led to the capture by the rebel alliance of an important military base east of Aleppo and large areas of both Aleppo and Idlib provinces. It has met little resistance on the ground from regime forces and also comes at a time when Syria’s key backers – Iran and Russia – are focusing on their own conflicts.

The rebels’ sweeping success has posed the biggest challenge in eight years to President Bashar al-Assad, when Russian air power helped reverse rebel gains in the civil war.

The rebels consolidated their gains Sunday capturing key military sites in the east of Aleppo city. But they have left some neighborhoods in the hands of Kurdish forces.

The opposition forces’ control of Aleppo means that the regime counteroffensive promised by the Syrian defense ministry would be very difficult to carry out.

Government aircraft – along with Russian planes based in Syria – have carried out bombing raids against opposition positions in Aleppo and Idlib provinces.

The White Helmets, a Syrian volunteer service, said at least four people were killed on Sunday in airstrikes on Idlib city, a province that now appears to be entirely in rebel hands.

In his first comments since the lightning takeover, Assad has said that Syria will continue “to defend its stability and territorial integrity in the face of all terrorists and their supporters,” during calls with regional leaders on Saturday.

Assad said Syria was capable “with the help of its allies and friends, of defeating and eliminating them, no matter how intense their terrorist attacks are.”

The rebel offensive has reignited Syria’s long-running civil war, which killed more than 300,000 people and created nearly 6 million refugees. The conflict never formally ended and the flare-up is the most significant since 2020, when Russia and Turkey reached a ceasefire in Idlib.

The rebels are led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al Qaeda affiliate in Syria that used to go by the name Al-Nusra Front, along with groups backed by Turkey and others previously supported by the US.

“Should they be cheering the opposition taking over Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo, or should they actually worry about the city falling under Islamist rule?” she said.

Aydintasbas believes the events that have unfolded in Syria show a new balance of power in the country, with Turkey emerging as a “major actor,” while Russia’s power is weakened and Iran is “on its back foot.”