In this video, after a rundown of the general markets and sectors, Tony brings you the latest options trade ideas. These include a number of bullish and bearish ideas, including DIS, AAPL, META, BA, LULU, and many more.
This video premiered on December 23, 2024.
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Saga Metals Corp. (the ‘Company’ or ‘SAGA’) (TSXV: SAGA) (OTCQB: SAGMF) (FSE: 20H) a North American exploration company focused on critical mineral discovery in Canada, is pleased to announce it has closed its previously announced non-brokered private placement (the ‘ Private Placement ‘) of standard flow-through units (the ‘ Standard FT Units ‘) and Québec flow-through units of the Company (the ‘ QFT Units ‘ and, together with the Standard FT Units, the ‘ FT Units ‘). The Company issued 975,610 Standard flow-through units at a price of $0.41 per Standard FT Unit for gross proceeds of $400,000.10 and 697,675 QFT Units at a price of $0.43 per QFT Unit for gross proceeds of $300,000.25, for aggregate gross proceeds of $700,000.35.
Financing Overview:
Each FT Unit consist of one flow-through common share (a ‘ FT Share ‘) as defined in subsection 66(15) of the Income Tax Act (Canada) (the ‘ Tax Act ‘), and one-half of one transferable common share purchase warrant (each whole such warrant, a ‘ Warrant ‘). Each Warrant will entitle its holder to purchase one common share in the capital of the Company (a ‘ Warrant Share ‘) at a price of $0.50 until December 23, 2026. The Warrants and the Warrant Shares underlying the Warrants will not qualify as ‘flow-through shares’ under the Tax Act.
In connection with the closing of the Private Placement, the Company paid cash finder’s fee in the amount of $49,000 and issued 117,129 non-transferable compensation warrants, with each compensation warrant exercisable to acquire one common share in the capital of the Company at a price of $0.41 until December 23, 2026.
All securities issued in connection with the Private Placement are subject to a hold period of four months and one day pursuant to applicable securities laws. The FT Shares, Warrants, Warrant Shares, compensation warrants and any shares issued on exercise thereof are subject to a hold period and may not be traded until April 24, 2025 except as permitted by applicable securities legislation and the rules and policies of the TSX Venture Exchange.
The gross proceeds from the FT Shares, sold as part of the sale of the FT Units, will be used by the Company for ‘Canadian exploration expenses’ that are ‘flow-through critical mineral mining expenditures’ (as such terms are defined in the Tax Act) on the Company’s flagship asset, the Double Mer Uranium project on the east coast of Labrador, Canada, and exploration on its other primary asset, the Amirault Lithium Property located in Québec’s Eeyou Istchee James Bay region.
The securities have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the ‘ U.S. Securities Act ‘), or any state securities laws, and may not be offered or sold, within the United States, unless exemptions from the registration requirements of the U.S. Securities Act and applicable state securities laws are available.
No securities regulatory authority has reviewed or approved of the contents of this news release. This news release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of SAGA in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.
Receipt of Drill Permits for Double Mer Uranium and Radar Ti-V Projects:
In addition, the Company reports receipt of drill permits from the Newfoundland & Labrador government to commence drilling at the Double Mer Uranium Project and Radar Titanium-Vanadium (Ti-V) project. The Standard FT Unit component of the financing enables to Company to approach Q1 2025 with two strategic drill programs setting the stage for results from two projects within SAGA’s portfolio.
Key Highlights:
Double Mer Uranium Project:
The Double Mer Uranium Project is Saga Metals’ flagship project, covering 1,024 claims across 25,600 hectares in eastern-central Labrador, approximately 90 km northeast of Happy Valley-Goose Bay. Leveraging significant historical exploration data, SAGA’s exploration team validated key data and built upon the Company’s understanding of the project’s potential. This work has refined the understanding of the targets within the zone, specifically supporting the decision to initiate a 1500-2500m drill program the Luivik zone .
SAGA sees the Double Mer Uranium Project as a promising addition to the significant uranium projects already established in Labrador’s Central Mineral Belt (CMB) , including Paladin Energy’s Michelin and Atha Energy’s CMB discovery. With encouraging surface samples and geophysical data, SAGA believes Double Mer could offer comparable large-tonnage potential.
Figure 1: Regional map of the Double Mer Uranium Project in Labrador, Canada
The Luivik zone has been prioritized for drilling due to its anomalous uranium (U3O8%) geochemistry, along with clear signs of alteration and fluid enrichment. This zone exhibits Iron phase IOCG (Iron Oxide Copper Gold) fluid characteristics, such as high concentrations of smoky quartz and iron carbonate staining, which are indicators of late fluid flow. These characteristics will be carefully monitored as it can have the potential to enrich uraniferous units and mark the highest-grade intercepts. Consistent CPS (counts per second) readings further highlight the Luivik zone’s uranium potential, making it a top target for exploration.
The Luivik zone boasts a width of 300 meters between samples with a cut-off of 150 ppm U3O8 and anomalous grades over 1,100 ppm U308 to a high of 3,692 ppm U3O8 in a single sample. The Uranium count radiometrics suggest that the anomalous pegmatites which predominantly hosts the Luivik zone may extend upwards of one km or greater.
The zone’s favorable mineralogy is complemented by logistical advantages. Located just one kilometer from Double Mer’s main camp, the Luivik zone offers easy access for drilling teams, with snowmobile trails in place to support active drilling operations, ensuring both practical and cost-effective program execution.
Figure 2: The Luivik zone in the west of the Double Mer Uranium Property. Mapped pegmatites with amphibolite mafic rocks which sit in place with much of the mineralized trends.
Michael Garagan, CGO & Director of Saga Metals Corp. commented: ‘Drilling the Luivik zone which contains some of the most encouraging results, combined with less logistical challenges is the best starting spot for SAGA. We will be immediately looking to build off this winter program by getting permits ready to continue to test zones further east such as the Nanuk and Katjuk zones in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. We are aiming to confirm uranium concentrations and take initial steps in delineating this zone’s potential as a critical step in positioning Double Mer as a quality project in Labrador’s large-tonnage uranium landscape.’
Radar Ti-V Project:
The Radar Ti-V Property is located 10km south of Cartwright in Labrador, Canada. The project spans 17,250 hectares and benefits from road access, supporting efficient exploration and development.
Figure 3: Map of the Radar Ti-V project and its proximity to the town of Cartwright, Labrador
The Hawkeye zone is the most prospective target on the property. Detailed geophysics and surface samples are suggestive of a complex and phased layered mafic intrusion that may be upwards of 1km wide and 4 km long. Recent geophysics completed on the property show very detailed correlation to the rock samples and observed phase changes in the system.
Increased immiscibility in the east creates pronounced silica rich (magnetite depleted) banding mixed interstitially with high grade massive magnetite layers above ( 5-11.1 % TiO2 & 0.3-0.66 % V205% ). This first phase can be identified by the contact of low magnetics bands (blue) and highly magnetic bands (red, pink) (see Figure 4 below). After the high-grade banding the rocks transition into a gabbro norite rock moving westwards which contains a disseminated magnetite groundmass. These rocks are lower grade averaging (3-5% TiO2) & (0.1-0.2% V2O5) but are consistent and extensive in width. The entirety of these cross-system phases is almost 1km wide with a near vertical dip of each layer.
SAGA aims to complete a 1,500m drill program at the Hawkeye zone over the area encompassing the anomalous TiO2 and V2O5 surface samples and targeted geophysics segment as shown in Figure 4 below.
Figure 4: Geophysics completed over a targeted area within the Hawkeye Zone increasing width to 1km and a projected 4km strike
Michael Garagan, CGO & Director of Saga Metals Corp. further commented: ‘The decision to run back-to-back drill programs and include the Radar project is strategic and efficient as we are always looking to maximize our cost-effectiveness and shareholder value. We’ve engaged Gladiator Drilling out of south-eastern Labrador. Both the drilling and geological teams will be able to drive right into the Hawkeye zone for a 3-week program prior to the Double Mer Uranium drill program. SAGA will be able to enter Q2 with drill results from two projects, setting the stage for a very active 2025 field season.’
About Saga Metals Corp.
Saga Metals Corp. is a North American mining company focused on the exploration and discovery of critical minerals that support the global transition to green energy. The company’s flagship asset, the Double Mer Uranium Project, is located in Labrador, Canada, covering 25,600 hectares. This project features uranium radiometrics that highlight an 18-kilometer east-west trend, with a confirmed 14-kilometer section producing samples as high as 4,281ppm U 3 O 8 and spectrometer readings of 22,000cps.
In addition to its uranium focus, SAGA owns the Legacy Lithium Property in Quebec’s Eeyou Istchee James Bay region. This project, developed in partnership with Rio Tinto, has been expanded through the acquisition of the Amirault Lithium Project. Together, these properties cover 65,849 hectares and share significant geological continuity with other major players in the area, including Rio Tinto, Winsome Resources, Azimut Exploration, and Loyal Lithium.
SAGA also holds secondary exploration assets in Labrador, where the company is focused on the discovery of titanium, vanadium, and iron ore. With a portfolio that spans key minerals crucial to the green energy transition, SAGA is strategically positioned to play an essential role in the clean energy future.
For more information, contact:
Saga Metals Corp.
Investor Relations
Tel: +1 (778) 930-1321
Email: info@sagametals.com
www.sagametals.com
Qualified Person
Peter Webster P.Geo. CEO of Mercator Geological Services Limited is an Independent Qualified Person as defined under National Instrument 43-101 and has reviewed and approved the technical information related to the Double Mer Uranium Project and Radar Ti-V Project disclosed in this news release.
The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or adequacy of this release. Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Service Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Cautionary Disclaimer
This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements are often identified by terms such as ‘will’, ‘may’, ‘should’, ‘anticipates’, ‘expects’, ‘believes’, and similar expressions or the negative of these words or other comparable terminology. All statements other than statements of historical fact, included in this release are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. In particular, this news release contains forward-looking information pertaining to the Company’s plans and objectives in respect of the gross proceeds from the Private Placement as well as the prospective nature of the Double Mer Uranium and Radar Titanium-Vanadium Projects and future exploration programs. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company’s expectations include, but are not limited to, changes in the state of equity and debt markets, fluctuations in commodity prices, delays in obtaining required regulatory or governmental approvals, environmental risks, limitations on insurance coverage, risks and uncertainties involved in the mineral exploration and development industry, and the risks detailed in the Company’s final prospectus in Manitoba and amended and restated final prospectus for British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario dated August 30, 2024, filed under its SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.ca, and in the continuous disclosure filings made by the Company with securities regulations from time to time. The reader is cautioned that assumptions used in the preparation of any forward-looking information may prove to be incorrect. Events or circumstances may cause actual results to differ materially from those predicted, as a result of numerous known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of the Company. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking information. Such information, although considered reasonable by management at the time of preparation, may prove to be incorrect and actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. Forward-looking statements contained in this news release are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. The forward-looking statements contained in this news release are made as of the date of this news release and the Company will update or revise publicly any of the included forward-looking statements only as expressly required by applicable law.
Photos accompanying this announcement are available at:
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In 2024, the oil and gas markets were shaped by several significant trends including shifting demand, geopolitical turmoil and rising production.
As the two key oil benchmarks (Brent and West Texas Intermediate) struggled to maintain price gains made throughout the year the natural gas market was able to register a 55 percent increase between January and the end of December.
Starting the year at US$75.90 per barrel Brent Crude prices rallied to a year-to-date high of US$91.13 on April 5, 2024. Values sunk to a year-to-date low of US$69.09 on September 10. By late December prices were holding in the US$72.40 range.
Similarly, WTI started the 12-month period at US$70.49 and moved to a year-to-date high of US$86.60 on April 5. Prices sank to a year-to-date low of US$65.48 in early September. In late December values were sitting at the US$69.10 level.
While both oil benchmarks contracted by year’s end, natural gas made a late rally achieving its year-to-date high of US$3.76 per metric million British thermal units on December 24.
Although prices were able to register a late year rally, prices remained under pressure for the majority of 2024. Natural gas prices fell to a year-to-date low of US$1.51 in February, shortly after the Biden administration enacted a moratorium on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in the country.
For Mike O’Leary, partner at Hunton Andrews Kurth, the president’s decision added further strain to the oversupplied market.
He continued: “And with the moratorium imposed by the administration this year on LNG facilities, it’s just exacerbating that, that that glut, for the time being, until at some point that hopefully the moratorium will be lifted, and we’ll see more LNG facilities under construction.”
Hope that the moratorium would be lifted was further dampened in mid-December when the Department of Energy (DoE) released a study on the environmental and economic impacts of LNG exports, assessing their effects on domestic prices, supply, and greenhouse gas emissions.
The DoE analysis highlights a triple cost increase for US consumers from rising LNG exports: higher domestic natural gas prices, increased electricity costs, and higher prices for goods due to manufacturers passing on elevated energy expenses.
‘Special scrutiny needs to be applied toward very large LNG projects. An LNG project exporting 4 billion cubic feet per day – considering its direct life cycle emissions – would yield more annual greenhouse gas emissions by itself than 141 of the world’s countries each did in 2023,” the report read.
This latest development isn’t the only trend impacting US LNG producers.
“A series of warmer-than-expected winters has led to a large supply glut,” explained Ernie Miller, CEO of Verde Clean Fuels (NASDAQ:VGAS). “Natural gas suppliers need to work off those inventories – and see prices return to more rational levels – before they could even think of increasing production.”
After soaring to a 10 year high of US$9.25 in September of 2022 prices have been trending lower, trapped below US$4.00 since early 2023.
“Natural gas is dealing with a severe oversupply problem that has kept a tight lid on prices, and the only sector within natural gas that has held up well is LNG, which is a very small part of the overall gas market,” said Miller.
Oil prices exhibited volatility through the year but found support by ongoing production cuts from OPEC+ and steady demand recovery in key economies. US oil production reached a record-high of 13.2 million barrels per day, reflecting resilience despite challenges such as declining rig counts.
Geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Hamas conflict, added uncertainty to global supply chains.
Meanwhile, Chinese oil demand softened, with lower-than-expected economic performance dampening consumption growth. In contrast, Europe continued its push for renewable energy while navigating supply challenges tied to Russian sanctions.
In the US Trump’s election victory and his repeated campaign exclamations of “Drill, Baby Drill” added optimism to the sector, although as FocusEcnomics Editor and Economist Matthew Cunningham pointed out it could be easier said than done.
“Politicians’ rhetoric often divorces from reality, and in Trump’s case this is no different. He probably will succeed in boosting domestic production of oil and gas, by issuing more leases for drilling on federal land and scrapping environmental regulations. Nonetheless, he is unlikely to boost output by as much as his “drill, baby, drill” comment indicates,’ said Cunningham.
He added: “Historically, the power of US presidents to influence oil and gas production has been dwarfed by that of the market: Ultimately, the price of oil and gas will determine if American shale firms will drill. Our Consensus forecast is currently for U.S. crude production to rise by 0.7 million barrels next year, about 3 percent of 2024 output.”
This sentiment was echoed by Miller, whose company Verde Clean Fuels makes low carbon gasoline.
“While President-elect Trump is likely to remove restrictions from oil producers, it doesn’t mean those producers will necessarily be drilling more wells or increasing domestic production. With oil prices hovering around US$70 a barrel – down from US$85 in the spring – oil companies don’t want to create an oversupply scenario driving prices even lower,’ said Miller.
Regardless of Trump’s directive producers will likely remain prudent.
“The major oil companies have learned hard lessons from previous cycles, that they need to maintain discipline and a strong balance between supply and demand so they can protect their margins,” Miller added
O’Leary also thinks Trump’s campaign promises, if followed through, could add more price volatility to the market.
“Even though he said that the energy companies here in the States realize they don’t really want to open the spigots, because that’s going to drive the price down,” said O’Leary.
“If the US did that and overproduced OPEC would say, well, we need to defend our market share, so they might just go ahead and open their spigots up, and that would further drive the price down,” he said, adding that Trump’s pro-energy stance could result in more capital for the sector.
Shortly after winning the US election the president-elect began touting 25 percent tariffs aimed at ally nations Canada and Mexico.
Over several decades trade between the three nations has become increasingly interconnected adding tariffs to all or some goods and services could weaken continental relations and result in an escalating back and forth.
In 2023, the US imported 8.51 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum from 86 countries.
Canada and Mexico topped the list of countries with Canada supplying 52 percent and Mexico 11 percent.
“There’s a lot of concern that if the oil and gas sector is not exempt, and he has said nothing about exempting it, that that could drive the prices up for the consumers here in the in the country and do just the opposite of what I think Trump really wants to do, which is to fight inflation,” said O’Leary.
As FocusEconomics editor and economist Cunningham pointed out we could see a repeat of the 2018 trade war if the tariffs are enacted, which would ultimately hurt the US oil and gas sector.
“During the 2018 trade war with China, Chinese buyers of oil and gas erred away from purchasing U.S. supplies of the fuel. US oil prices fell relative to European ones, and US liquified natural gas exports to China fell to zero after Beijing hiked tariffs on the fuel to 25 percent,” said Cunningham.
In October, FocusEconomics surveyed 15 economists on whether Trump would implement a 10 percent –20 percent blanket tariff on imports and two-thirds responded that he will, he added.
Looking to the year ahead our experts see geopolitics as a major trend to watch.
“As in recent years, wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe will continue to support oil and gas prices by unsettling trade flows and raising the risk of supply disruptions. That said, it seems likely that conflicts in both regions will come closer to winding down in 2025 than at the start of 2024,” said Cunningham.
Israel has largely dismantled Hamas’ leadership, while Ukraine faces potential negotiations with Russia following recent military setbacks and Donald Trump’s re-election, given his focus on brokering a deal. These developments could exert downward pressure on oil and gas prices in the coming year, he went on to explain.
Due to these factors FocusEconomics panelists have cut their forecast for average Brent prices in 2025 by 7.6 percent.
Miller expects some volatility, but moreover resilience in the energy sector.
“The largest spikes in volatility we’ve seen are directly related to the war in the Middle East. However, interestingly, those spikes have been very short-lived, and prices settled back and have been drifting lower for months,’ he said. “I think it’s fair to say that, by and large, global energy markets have been remarkably resilient, considering there are two wars going on. That stability has worked as a bit of a tailwind for economies because oil is among the largest expenses for many industries, including air travel and trucking.”
For O’Leary, this year’s geopolitical shifts, notably the Ukraine war, have reshaped global energy dynamics. Europe, aiming to reduce reliance on Russian energy, has turned to the global market, securing LNG supplies from the U.S. and Australia. This has increased LNG demand but hasn’t significantly lifted natural gas prices, which remain low.
Meanwhile, companies pursuing greener energy strategies are reassessing due to high costs, with some shifting focus from green hydrogen, produced via electrolysis, to blue hydrogen derived from natural gas, which is more cost-effective.
Oil and gas market watchers should be on the lookout for more uncertainty as we enter 2025.
O’Leary is keeping an eye on the growing energy demands of data centers and AI are straining power grids, spurring interest in solutions like hydrogen, nuclear power, and co-located facilities. However, delays in permitting new energy infrastructure, such as LNG facilities and pipelines, remain a significant hurdle.
Geopolitically, he sees the Ukraine war’s resolution stabilizing oil and gas markets, though Europe is unlikely to fully trust Russia as an energy supplier again.
Miller will be watching OPEC+ decisions and actions, as they continue to influence global oil supply dynamics.
Additionally, the performance of major economies across the US, Europe, and Asia will also play a critical role in shaping demand. Seasonal weather conditions could have a significant impact, particularly if the US and Europe experience a colder or warmer-than-usual winter. Lastly, any major geopolitical developments involving oil-producing nations could cause unexpected shifts in the market.
Economist Cunningham pointed to several trends that investors should be mindful of.
“Black swan events—those that are rare and difficult to predict, like the wars in Gaza and Ukraine—are, by their unforeseen nature, some of the primary movers of volatility in oil and gas markets,” said Cunningham. “Donald Trump, who styles himself as a master dealmaker, is the main wild card. Trump likes to cloak himself in the guise of a black swan—a “madman” à la Nixon—that is hard to read and will push his interlocutors to the brink in order to force them to accept his terms.”
He warns that trade wars would send energy prices plunging, while tighter sanctions on oil-producing Iran and Venezuela—two of Trump’s bugbears—could send them higher.
The oil market faces uncertainty on both supply and demand fronts in 2025, he explained.
OPEC+ cohesion is under pressure as competition from non-member producers rises, with the group planning to increase production starting in April. On the demand side, emerging Asia is expected to drive crude consumption, though China’s economic performance remains a key variable. Additionally, the potential global economic impact of Donald Trump’s re-election looms.
Analysts predict a slight slowdown in global GDP growth in 2025, with both China and the US set to decelerate.
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Provaris Energy Ltd (Provaris, ASX.PV1) is pleased to provide an update on recent progress towards its priority activities in Norway aimed at developing Hydrogen Supply Chains into Europe and advancing the Company’s proprietary hydrogen carrier.
HIGHLIGHTS:
Term Sheet for Hydrogen Supply and Offtake progressing towards execution
During December 2024, Provaris , together with Uniper and Norwegian Hydrogen, made significant strides towards the finalization of a Term Sheet that outlines the key terms for negotiation of a long term Hydrogen SPA. This agreement targets a 10-year offtake contract for over 40,000 tonnes per annum of renewable green hydrogen from the Nordics to Germany.
The Term Sheet represents a critical milestone in Provaris’ plans to establish reliable, long term, and low cost hydrogen supply utilising Provaris’ proprietary H2Neo carriers and H2Leo barge technology.
The completion of the Term Sheet is imminent however final execution may be slightly delayed by the winter holiday period in Europe, which concludes on 2 January 2025. The Term Sheet also supports discussions established with shipyards for newbuilds and shipowners for Time Charter of the carriers.
Provaris and Uniper continue to focus on optimal shipping, compression, and import terminal solutions in North-West Europe, ensuring a flexible and efficient transport network. The collaboration with Norwegian Hydrogen, including the Fjord H2 project and other Nordic sites, aims to provide RFNBO-compliant hydrogen delivered in compressed form. These initiatives support Uniper’s hydrogen portfolio requirements and align with Provaris’ vision of delivering cost-effective, low-emission supply chains from production to end-user markets.
Restart of Prototype Tank Program at Fiskå Facility and completion of final Class Approvals.
Provaris has maintained regular engagement with the secured lenders and their appointed Advisor regarding the ongoing sale process of the Fiskå Facility and associated assets. While the process has taken longer than initially anticipated progress has been achieved over the past 6 weeks with finalization and title transfer to the new owner anticipated on or around 1st January 2025.
Securing a lease agreement for a portion of the Fiskå Facility’s production floor and associated office space will provide for a resumption of the Prototype Tank fabrication and testing program. The lease is close to finalization and will provide ample room for future growth, including the potential production of small-scale hydrogen storage tanks that can be an important step towards improving the operational economics for industrial hydrogen users.
Concurrently, Provaris has advanced negotiation of the key terms for an asset purchase agreement to acquire the installed Production Cell (including robotic arms, laser-hybrid welding equipment, pedestals, jigs and related tools) essential for the Prototype Tank construction. Owning these valuable production assets and associated intellectual property will strengthen Provaris’ manufacturing capabilities in Norway and potential licensing opportunities within Europe and Asia.
Click here for the full ASX Release
The Santa Claus rally has long been attractive to investors looking to end the year on a high note.
North American markets have already experienced robust growth throughout 2024, but the prospect of a year-end rally could offer one final opportunity for gains before heading into the new year.
The Santa Claus rally is a period between the final trading days of December and the first days of January when stocks tend to climb. While this seasonal uptick isn’t guaranteed, historical data shows that markets rise more often than not during this window, driven by investor optimism, low trading volumes and year-end portfolio adjustments.
This year, with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) up over 27 percent year-to-date, spurred by significant growth in the technology, energy and financial sectors, investors are closely watching for signs that the rally will materialize once again.
As the holiday season unfolds, market participants are positioning to benefit from a potentially strong finish to 2024.
The Santa Claus rally typically occurs over the final five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. This narrow window often yields modest, yet consistent, returns for investors who time the market correctly.
While the rally’s timeframe is traditionally short, its effects can ripple through the market into early January. Essentially, a strong performance during this period can set the tone for January.
However, the exact timing of the Santa Claus rally can vary. Some analysts suggest that the rally has started earlier in recent years as investors attempt to front run the effect by increasing their positions in mid-December. This shift may blur the lines between the Santa Claus rally and broader December market upswings.
Despite skepticism in some quarters, historical data supports the existence of the Santa Claus rally.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.3 percent gain during this period, with a positive performance nearly 80 percent of the time. For its part, the Nasdaq Composite Index (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) has performed even better, averaging gains of 3.1 percent during the same window all the way back to 1971.
This year markets turned down in mid-December, but as of Christmas Eve the Santa Claus rally seems to have arrived — the S&P 500 gained 1.1 percent that day alone, and the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 1.34 percent.
While the Santa Claus rally is well documented, not every year delivers the expected results.
Columnist Mark Hulbert has expressed skepticism about the event in the past, noting that there is no definitive evidence that the market consistently outperforms during this period.
“An analysis of the past century reveals that the stock market in the weeks prior to Christmas is no more likely to rally than at other times of the year. (I suggest investors) ignore any arguments based on an alleged Santa Claus Rally,” Hulbert warned in an opinion piece posted on MarketWatch in 2018.
In 2019, for example, the market experienced volatility in December, defying the usual pattern.
Other analysts have a more optimistic perspective. Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, acknowledges that market reactions to US Federal Reserve decisions often spark volatility.
However, he believes that the recent selloff this year — which was driven by hawkish Fed commentary — could pave the way for a rally as investors return from holiday breaks.
“Markets have a really bad habit of overreacting to Fed policy moves,” Cox explained to TheStreet. “This seems more like, ‘I’m leaving for Christmas break, so I’ll sell and start up next year.’”
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, also has a bullish outlook for 2025.
Hirsch, who is the son of Yale Hirsch, the first person to record the Santa Claus rally, emphasized the significance of seasonal patterns, including the Santa Claus rally and the January Barometer.
In his view, if the S&P 500 posts gains in January, the market is likely to maintain positive momentum for the rest of the year. This perspective aligns with the historical analysis outlined in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, which shows the Santa Claus rally occurring approximately 80 percent of the time since 1950.
Despite the varying takes, many investors view the rally as a psychological phenomenon — one that influences market sentiment even if the returns are marginal.
Now that the Santa Claus rally seems to be underway, investors interested in joining in have a variety of options, including domestic markets, international diversification or targeted sector plays such as mega-cap tech stocks.
As always, consulting with a financial advisor and conducting thorough research remains essential. While the Santa Claus rally offers potential rewards, market conditions can shift quickly, making flexibility and prudence key to success.
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Volunteers helping to clean up the oil spill on Russia’s Black Sea coast are appealing to Russian President Vladimir Putin for more assistance, as they grapple with environmental havoc across more than 35 miles of coastline.
Two Russian tankers carrying thousands of tons of fuel were badly damaged in stormy weather near the Black Sea earlier this month, leading to an oil spill, according to Russian state media. The tankers were carrying more than 9,000 tons of oil, according to TASS, much of which spilled into the Kerch Strait between mainland Russia and annexed Crimea.
Putin last week labelled the spill an “environmental disaster.”
At least 3,700 tons of heavy oil were spilled, though the actual volume may be higher, according to Greenpeace Ukraine. Video from the scene showed blackened waves washing the heavy fuel oil known as mazut onto rocky shores. In one video, a bird – its wings thick with oil – could be seen squawking in distress as it was pummeled by waves, unable to lift its wings and fly away.
In a video message addressed to the Russian president and prime minister on Tuesday, volunteers said that local authorities in Russia’s Krasnodar region did not have the means to clean up the oil spill.
“Local authorities are not coping, they do not have the resources for this. The only resource is ordinary people with shovels, such a catastrophe cannot be defeated with shovels!” one volunteer said in the video, as they requested federal resources and specialists to be sent to the area. They also appealed for foreign specialists to be sent, warning that the scale of the pollution will have an international impact.
“It was recently announced that 5,000 volunteers and rescuers are working to eliminate the consequences. We believe that in such a vast disaster area, even 50,000 people with shovels are not able to solve the problem and save the situation,” the volunteer added.
On Thursday, Putin suggested the captains of the vessels were to blame for the incident. “Why am I saying that this is a big disaster and a catastrophe? Because almost 40% of the fuel has leaked,” he said, adding that efforts to recover the vessels were hampered by the ongoing storm.
Russia’s Investigative Committee will open a criminal case into the incident, Russian state media TASS reported.
Haiti’s online media association said two reporters were killed and several others were wounded in a gang attack on Tuesday on the reopening of Port-au-Prince’s biggest public hospital.
Street gangs have taken over an estimated 85% of Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, and they forced the closure of the General Hospital early this year. Authorities had pledged to reopen the facility Tuesday but as journalists gathered to cover the event, suspected gang members opened fire in a vicious Christmas Eve attack.
Robest Dimanche, a spokesman for the Online Media Collective, identified the dead journalists as Markenzy Nathoux and Jimmy Jean. Dimanche said an unspecified number of reporters had also been wounded in the attack, which he blamed on the Viv Ansanm coalition of gangs.
Haiti’s interim president, Leslie Voltaire, said in an address to the nation that journalists and police were among the victims of the attack. He did not specify how many casualties there were, or give a breakdown for the dead or wounded.
“I send my sympathies to the people who were victims, the national police and the journalists,” Voltaire said, pledging “this crime is not going to go unpunished.”
A video posted online by the reporters trapped inside the hospital showed what appeared to be two lifeless bodies of men on stretchers, their clothes bloodied. One of the men had a lanyard with a press credential around his neck.
Radio Télé Métronome initially reported that seven journalists and two police officers were wounded. Police and officials did not immediately respond to calls for information on the attack.
Johnson “Izo” André, considered Haiti’s most powerful gang leader and part of a gang known as Viv Ansanm, which that has taken control of much of Port-au-Prince, posted a video on social media claiming responsibility for the attack.
The video said the gang coalition had not authorized the hospital’s reopening.
Haiti has seen journalists targeted before. In 2023, two local journalists were killed in the space of a couple of weeks — radio reporter Dumesky Kersaint was fatally shot in mid-April that year, while journalist Ricot Jean was found dead later that month.
In July, former Prime Minister Garry Conille visited the Hospital of the State University of Haiti, more widely known as the General Hospital, after authorities regained control of it from gangs.
The hospital had been left ravaged and strewn with debris. Walls and nearby buildings were riddled with bullet holes, signaling fights between police and gangs. The hospital is across the street from the national palace, the scene of several battles in recent months.
Gang attacks have pushed Haiti’s health system to the brink of collapse with looting, setting fires, and destroying medical institutions and pharmacies in the capital. The violence has created a surge in patients and a shortage of resources to treat them.
Haiti’s health care system faces additional challenges during the rainy season, which is likely to increase the risk of water-borne diseases. Poor conditions in camps and makeshift settlements have heightened the risk of diseases like cholera, with over 84,000 suspected cases in the country, according to UNICEF.
Brazilian authorities are investigating after a bridge collapsed Sunday, killing at least four people and sending trucks loaded with sulfuric acid and pesticides plunging into a river, raising concerns about water contamination.
More than a dozen people are missing after the 533-meter-long Juscelino Kubitschek de Oliveira bridge – which connects the northeastern cities of Estreito and Aguiarnópolis – gave way. Four trucks, three cars, and three motorbikes fell into the Tocantins River, according to the state-run Agencia Brasil news agency.
Three women and one man died in the collapse, Agencia Brasil reported, citing the Maranhão Fire Department.
The trucks were carrying about 25,000 liters of pesticides and 76 tons of sulfuric acid, according to the National Agency for Water and Basic Sanitation, raising concerns about environmental damage. Authorities warned residents not to drink or bathe in the river’s water.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sent his condolences to the families of the victims in a post to social media Monday, and said his government will support local authorities in dealing with the emergency.
Brazil’s National Department of Transport Infrastructure has opened an investigation into the cause of the collapse, the government said in a statement.
The Navy will also deploy equipment and boats to continue the search for the 13 people who are missing, the government said.
The government also said it will hire a new company for the design and construction of a new bridge that will be ready in about a year.
A passenger plane crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau on Wednesday, local authorities said, without specifying the number of people on board.
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations said its teams found the aircraft on fire upon arrival on the scene.
“Rescue units began extinguishing the fire. Currently, information about the victims is being clarified, and according to preliminary information, there are survivors,” the ministry said.
This is a developing story and will be updated.
Russia launched aerial attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector “on a massive scale” overnight into Wednesday, local authorities said, with explosions reported across the country amid intensified bombardments that have left Ukraine in a precarious position while the war grinds into a third winter.
At least three people were injured in the northeastern city of Kharkiv – less than 20 miles from the Russian border – Ukraine’s national police said, adding that residential buildings and civilian infrastructure were damaged in the attack. At least seven missile strikes targeted the city, regional Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.
Russia attacked “the energy sector again on a massive scale,” Ukraine’s energy minister German Halushchenko said on his Facebook page. Ukraine’s energy operator imposed emergency blackouts in several parts of the country, the minister added.
Poland scrambled fighter jets in response to a Russian missile threat in western Ukraine, according to the Polish Operational Command.
Wednesday’s attack follows a deadly Russian strike on the city of Kryvyi Rih on Christmas Eve. At least one person was killed and 17 others were injured after a Russian missile struck a residential building in the city – the hometown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
And last Friday, at least one person was killed and several embassies were damaged in a Russian missile attack on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv. That attack came a day after Russian leader Vladimir Putin challenged Ukraine to a “duel” in his end-of-year conference, prompting Zelensky to call the Russian leader a “dumbass.”
