A few years ago, it would have been unimaginable that Italy would be home to one of the most stable governments in Europe. Italian coalition administrations tended to last just over a year before collapsing, making Italy predictably unpredictable.

But a series of factors, including government crises in relatively stable countries like France and Germany, and the roaring popularity of Italy’s current coalition led by far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, in power since 2022, have made Rome the key player in Europe’s relationship with the US under Donald Trump’s second presidency.

During his last term Trump called Europe a “foe” of the US. This time, Meloni has the potential to turn that around thanks in part to their mutual friend Elon Musk.

Musk, Trump and Meloni dined together at French President Emmanuel Macron’s 60-person dinner after the official reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris last weekend, an experience Trump later told The New York Post was positive.

“We got along great,” he said, adding that he and Meloni had spent “a lot of time together.”

Describing the diminutive figure (Meloni herself has often joked about her 5’ 2” height) as a “live wire,” he predicted that they could “straighten out the world a little bit.”

The two leaders, while politically similar, don’t necessarily align on all the world’s most pressing conflicts. Meloni has been one of Ukraine’s strongest backers, having met with President Volodymyr Zelensky a dozen times since Russia’s invasion.

Whether she can in any way affect what Trump might do, however, is hard to know, but she will have first dibs to try in Europe.

“Meloni and Musk have a very good ongoing relationship, and Musk can be a kind of best friend to both, as long as the Trump-Musk honeymoon lasts at least.”

Musk and Meloni forged their very strong friendship in the summer of 2023, and the Tesla founder headlined Meloni’s Brothers of Italy political convention, Atreju, in December last year.

He is rumored to be making a surprise appearance at the same convention this weekend in Rome, which is being headlined by Argentinian President Javier Milei, another of Trump’s populist bedfellows.

So close is their relationship that Meloni and Musk had to take to social media earlier this year to dispel rumors of a romance, after he gushed about her beauty when he presented her with a Global Citizens Award on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

A photo of them locked in a gaze went viral, to which Musk tweeted that he was there with his mother and that there is “no romantic relationship whatsoever with PM Meloni.”

Orsina believes that Musk can make it easier for the Italian prime minister to “get in touch” with Trump whenever she feels the need.

“There is an opportunity for Meloni to take the initiative and be a bridge between the Trump administration and Europe,” he said.

Meloni claims to have already started that bridging process in Paris, posting a thumbs-up shot of herself with Trump on X with the headline, “There is already an alliance. The USA-EU axis passes through Italy.”

Once she was elected in 2022 and became more moderate, Bannon, no longer wielding the power he once did as Trump’s chief strategist, grew cold, telling Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera last week that she has been a disappointment.

“Meloni has almost turned into a Nikki Haley,” he told the Italian daily, referring to Trump’s opponent in the Republican primaries. Citing her support for Ukraine, and what he describes as Italy’s lack of work on trade, he predicts that it won’t be Meloni who influences Trump, but the other way around.

“I think her attitude will change with the arrival of President Trump, who will convince her,” Bannon said. “And that NATO countries will get on board quite quickly. Otherwise, if she really believes what she has said in recent years, she should be ready with others in Europe to put money into it, to write checks as big as the speeches. We in the MAGA movement are adamant, we want to cut funding for Ukraine in the Chamber by 100%.”

For the moment, Meloni appears to be on Musk’s, and as a result, Trump’s right sides.

“She is a ‘day after’ politician, much more than a ‘day before’ politician,” Orsina says, referring to the likelihood she will be reactive rather than proactive when it comes to Trump’s approach to Europe.

During his first term as US president, Donald Trump was widely seen as a friend to Taiwan, having bolstered support for the island through increased arm sales and upgraded diplomatic visits.

But that goodwill was nowhere to be found on the campaign trail, with Trump repeatedly claiming that the self-ruled democracy should pay the US more for “protection” and that it had “stolen” America’s chip business.

That’s why Taiwan is buckling up for what could be a far more volatile relationship with Washington, its most important security guarantor, now that Trump has clenched a historic political comeback.

What is certain, observers say, is that Taiwan will have to pay more for its own defense and step up engagement with the Trump administration to shore up American support.

China’s ruling Communist Party views Taiwan as part of its territory, despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island by force if necessary. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, Washington is legally required to provide the island with the means to defend itself, and it supplies Taipei with defensive weaponry.

In a statement issued after the November election, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te stressed the importance of Taiwan’s friendship with the US and said Taipei is willing to be “the most reliable partner.”

Experts say Taiwan will be closely watching Trump’s foreign policy and defense appointments, his response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and his demands on allies for clues on the future of the relationship.

The stakes of that relationship are higher than ever as Beijing ramps up military intimidation of Taiwan, sending fighter jets and warships near the island almost on a daily basis and launching large-scale drills to punish what it calls “separatist acts.”

This week, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said China fielded its largest regional maritime deployment in decades, as it braced for expected military exercises after Lai sparked Beijing’s ire by making unofficial stops in Hawaii and the US territory of Guam.

Beijing has not announced any military drills or acknowledged the large-scale deployment cited by Taipei. US officials have said China’s regional naval deployments are elevated but consistent with other large exercises in the past.

Under pressure

But one thing’s for sure: Trump is a less vocal supporter of Taiwan than Joe Biden. The outgoing president has repeatedly said the US would be willing to intervene militarily should the Chinese attack the island, before the White House would walk back his comments.

The US has long been governed by a policy of “strategic ambiguity” over exactly how it would respond to an invasion of Taiwan. Trump, though, has taken that ambiguity to another level.

Asked by the Wall Street Journal if he would use military force against a blockade on Taiwan by China, Trump said it would not come to that because Xi respected him and knows he’s “crazy.” Instead, he said he would slap 150% to 200% tariffs on Beijing.

In an October episode of the “The Joe Rogan Experience” podcast, Trump hit out at America’s longtime friend, saying Taiwan doesn’t “pay us money for the protection, you know? The mob makes you pay money, right?”

Taiwan’s mutual defense treaty with Washington ended in 1979 along with official diplomatic ties. Unlike South Korea and Japan, it doesn’t pay for American military forces to be based in its territory. Still, the US is the island’s biggest arms dealer.

“US and Taiwanese national security interests overlap significantly,” said Kanapathy. “But the Unites States can’t want to help Taiwan more than Taiwan wants to help itself. That’s the bottom line.”

Taiwan has long procured weaponry and military equipment from the US. There is currently a backlog of more than $20 billion in military gear that Taiwan has ordered and is still awaiting delivery. It has also been increasing its defense budget over the years.

This year, the Taiwanese government proposed a record high military budget that accounts for approximately 2.5% of the island’s total economic output, far less than the 10% target Trump said Taiwan should commit to.

A significant increase in defense spending, however, could be politically difficult for Taiwan’s President Lai, as his party does not have a majority in the legislature. And 10% would make Taiwan among the highest military spenders in the world, three times more than what the US spends on its military as a percentage of its economy.

Trump won re-election earlier this month and has announced a proposed cabinet stacked with multiple China hawks.

Chip giant

Trump has also repeatedly accused Taiwan of “stealing” America’s chip business and has suggested imposing tariffs on Taiwan’s critical chip exports, which are used to power an array of modern technologies, from smartphones to artificial intelligence applications.

While experts have dismissed Trump’s comments, saying Taiwan grew its own semiconductor industry organically through a combination of foresight, hard work and investment, the remarks have prompted jitters that Taiwan would need to move more of its critical chip supply chain to the US at a faster pace.

A move like that could affect the island’s economic security and dismantle the very “silicon shield” that some say helps protect Taiwan from the threat of an invasion by Beijing.

“If Trump is going to do something against the chips supply chain, including more rigid export controls, that may have a lot of impact on Taiwan,” she said, referring to restrictions on which countries or companies Taiwanese chip suppliers may sell to.

Earlier this month, Reuters reported the US had ordered Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, to halt shipments of advanced chips to Chinese customers. TSMC manufactures 90% of the world’s most advanced chips.

The move came after TSMC-made chips were reportedly found in devices made by Huawei, a Chinese telecommunications giant sanctioned by the US in 2019. TSMC said it had not supplied chips to Huawei since September 2020, but it continues to supply other Chinese clients, prompting concerns that Huawei may still have access to these chips through other Chinese firms.

Analysts say increasing outreach and education efforts would be key for Taiwanese chip businesses to mitigate risks as Trump begins his second term.

Cyclone Chido caused extensive damage on the French territory of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean, leaving several people dead, officials said Saturday, as the storm roared toward the east coast of Africa.

French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau said a “very provisional” tally shows there are at least “a few people” who have died. He said he would not yet provide any precise numbers of people killed and injured given rescuers have not yet been able to assess the situation on the ground.

“We’re afraid the toll will be high, but for the moment I can’t give any figures,” Retailleau told reporters following an emergency meeting at the interior ministry in Paris. “The island seems devastated.”

Chido brought winds in excess of 220 kph (136 mph), according to the French weather service, ripping metal roofs off houses in Mayotte, which has a population of just over 300,000 spread over two main islands that lie about 800 kilometers (497 miles) off Mozambique.

France’s new Prime Minister François Bayrou, who was appointed Friday, said public facilities have been “severely damaged or destroyed” including at the prefecture, the hospital and the airport. He said many people living in precarious shacks in slum areas have faced “very serious risks.”

French President Emmanuel Macron said he was closely monitoring the situation.

“Our island is being hit by the most violent and destructive cyclone since 1934. Many of us have lost everything,” Mayotte prefect François-Xavier Bieuville said in a Facebook post Saturday. He said the highest alert had been lifted so that rescuers can help after the worst of the cyclone had passed.

The French Interior Ministry said 1,600 police and gendarmerie officers have been deployed to “help the population and prevent potential looting.”

Some 110 rescuers and firefighters sent to Mayotte from France and the nearby territory of Reunion have been deployed and an additional reinforcement of 140 people will be sent on Sunday.

France’s poorest island, Mayotte has previously struggled with drought and underinvestment.

French Transport Minister François Durovray said Mayotte airport was “badly damaged, particularly the control tower” by the cyclone in a message on X. He said infrastructure on the island had been heavily impacted and air traffic will first be reopened to military aircraft only. Ships are being used to provide supplies.

Mayotte is still under red alert for the ordinary population and people were asked to “remain confined in a solid shelter,” prefect Bieuville said. Only emergency and security services were allowed to go out.

Local broadcaster Mayotte la 1ere said that thousands of homes were without power, tin huts and other small structures had been blown away and many trees had been blown over.

Comoros also battered as the storm closes in on mainland Africa

The nation of Comoros, a group of islands north of Mayotte, also was being battered by Chido and the highest alert had been announced in some areas. Authorities said they were concerned for a group of 11 fishermen who had gone out to sea on Monday and had not been heard from.

Comoros authorities have ordered all ships to remain anchored in harbors and have closed the main airport and government offices. Schools were ordered closed on Friday so that people could prepare for the cyclone.

Chido was expected to continue its eastern trajectory and hit Mozambique on the African mainland late Saturday or early Sunday, forecasters said. Mozambique’s disaster agency has warned that 2.5 million people might be affected in the northern provinces of Cabo Delgado and Nampula.

And further inland, landlocked Malawi and Zimbabwe were also preparing. Malawi’s Department of Disaster Management Affairs said it was expecting flooding in some parts and urgently advised some people to move to higher ground. In Zimbabwe, authorities said some people should prepare for evacuation.

December through to March is cyclone season in the southeastern Indian Ocean and southern Africa has been pummeled by a series of strong ones in recent years.

Cyclone Idai in 2019 killed more than 1,300 people in Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe. Cyclone Freddy left more than 1,000 dead across several countries last year.

The cyclones bring the risk of flooding and landslides, but also stagnant pools of water may later spark deadly outbreaks of the waterborne cholera disease — as happened in the aftermath of Idai — as well as dengue fever and malaria.

Studies say the cyclones are getting worse because of climate change. They can leave poor countries in southern Africa, which contribute a tiny amount to climate change, having to deal with large humanitarian crises.

The remaining five Australians from the infamous heroin-trafficking “Bali Nine” gang have returned home after Canberra struck a deal with Indonesia to end their two decades of imprisonment overseas.

“I am pleased to confirm that Australian citizens, Si Yi Chen, Michael Czugaj, Matthew Norman, Scott Rush and Martin Stephens have returned to Australia this afternoon,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wrote on X on Sunday.

The five, who were serving life sentences, belong to a wider group of nine who were caught attempting to smuggle more than 8 kilograms (17.6 pounds) out of Bali’s international airport and into Australia in 2005.

The botched plot has long been a point of tension between the two countries with the Australian government advocating for their return for decades.

Indonesia executed the group’s two Australian ringleaders Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran in 2015, prompting then Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott to call it “a dark moment in the relationship.”

Last month, Albanese raised the men’s case to Indonesia’s newly sworn in President Prabowo Subianto on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Peru, Reuters reported. Indonesia’s Law Minister had confirmed at the time that it had agreed to return the remaining men, the agency said.

“I thank President Prabowo Subianto for his compassion,” Albanese wrote on X on Sunday.

The five members are now set to be free, Nine News reported.

In a separate joint statement with Albanese and Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke on Sunday, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said, “The men will have the opportunity to continue their personal rehabilitation and reintegration in Australia.”

The Bali Nine were arrested in 2005 by Indonesian police following a tip from Australian authorities.

Four of them were arrested at Denpasar International Airport with over 8 kilograms of heroin strapped to their bodies, while another four were found at a hotel on the island of Kuta. Chan, one of the ringleaders, was captured after boarding a plane to Sydney.

Chan and Sukumaran were sentenced to death while the other seven were eventually handed a life sentence after an appeal.

The only female member of the group, Renae Lawrence, was freed in 2018 after serving 13 years of her 20-year sentence. Lawrence had initially been sentenced to life in prison, but later her punishment was commuted to 20 years and she was released early on good behavior.

Another member, Tan Duc Thanh Nguyen, died of kidney cancer in 2018 while in custody, Nine News reported.

The case of the Bali Nine highlighted the strict laws on drug trafficking in Indonesia, where several foreigners are currently detained on similar charges.

Pope Francis urged Catholic priests on Sunday to guard against spiritual groups that stoke political divisions, speaking during a one-day visit to Corsica, the first by a pontiff to the French Mediterranean island.

At a conference on religion across the Mediterranean, the pontiff warned against varieties of spirituality that “seek self-aggrandizement by fueling polemics, narrow-mindedness, divisions and exclusivist attitudes.”

“The Church’s pastors (are) called to be vigilant, to exercise discernment and to be constantly attentive to (these) popular forms of religiosity,” the pope said.

Francis, making his third and probably last foreign trip of 2024, did not name any specific religious groups.

Corsica, like much of France, has a long history of lay Catholic associations, known as confraternities. They usually focus on spiritual matters but sometimes play a role in local politics.

The pope will spend about nine hours in Ajaccio, Corsica’s capital, on Sunday. After attending the conference, he will celebrate an outdoor Mass with local Catholics and will also meet French President Emmanuel Macron.

Visiting places that often do not draw international attention is part of Francis’ policy of highlighting people and problems in what he calls the “peripheries” of the world. Over his 11-year papacy he has still not visited most of the capitals of Western Europe, including Paris.

Macron had invited Francis to attend the December 7 reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral, five years after a devastating fire nearly destroyed the medieval building. The pope decided not to go, and the two will instead meet briefly at Ajaccio’s airport on Sunday before Francis heads back to Rome.

As is now normal, Francis, who turns 88 on Tuesday, left his plane on arrival in Corsica via an elevator and used a wheelchair while greeting officials on the tarmac.

During a brief ride in an open-air popemobile from the airport, the pope waved at crowds on the street and appeared on good form, though he still has a small bruise on his chin, the result of what the Vatican described as a minor fall in his bedroom last week.

Corsica, famed for its steep, mountainous terrain and as the birthplace of Napoleon Bonaparte, is the fourth largest island in the Mediterranean. It is one of France’s poorest regions, where about 20% of the population lives below the poverty line, according to government figures.

The Vatican estimates that about 81% of Corsica’s population of 356,000 is Catholic. There are 83 priests on the island and some 30 Catholic nuns, it says.

Francis, originally from Argentina and the first pope from the Americas, has traveled widely around the Mediterranean since becoming pontiff in 2013, visiting Malta, the Greek island of Lesbos, and the Italian island of Lampedusa.