As part of your daily trading routine, you likely start the day by checking the news and stock prices to identify potential market opportunities. However, as you already know, news and price performance can only give you a snapshot context—a starting point for a much more thorough analysis.

Financial media often highlights the price performance of notable stocks, but understanding its significance is another matter. A single price snapshot doesn’t uncover trading opportunities, but analyzing price within the context of consistent movement can.

One way to get a comprehensive view of this context is using a MarketCarpets chart configured to display [Up Days] – [Down Days].

What is MarketCarpets’ Up Days – Down Days?

This indicator setting counts the number of days a stock moves higher, then subtracts the number of days it moves lower, during a specified timeframe. (It’s best to start with at least a 5-day change.)

Why use this indicator? It’s all about consistency, or finding stocks with consistent increases or decreases. For instance, a stock’s one-day jump tells you very little. From where did it jump? What was its price action in the previous days? What is its trend context?

A single day’s movement can be unreliable simply because it doesn’t say much beyond the current day. You’ll have to check the charts to get a broader context. Fortunately, you can save time and get an overview of all stocks using MarketCarpets’ Up Days – Down Days setting.

For example, look at what happened in the Technology Sector -> Software Industry on Wednesday (see image below). The stock that pops out immediately is Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), not only because of the size of its market cap but also the company’s overall significance in the tech industry and beyond.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS CHART OF SOFTWARE SET TO ONE-MONTH VIEW OF UP DAYS – DOWN DAYS. MSFT, up 9 days, is the largest stock by market cap in this segment.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If you hover over the square, you’ll get a small pop-up showing you MSFT’s chart. But we’ll take a closer look to drill down into the broader context of this MarketCarpets reading. MSFT has had nine up-days minus down-days over the last month, but what exactly does that mean, and does it present a tradable opportunity?

Let’s start with a daily chart of MSFT. 

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF MSFT. After being in a trading range for about four months, Is MSFT poised for a breakout?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Given Microsoft’s significance in all things “tech,” it wouldn’t hurt to get a breadth reading on the sector’s performance. To this end, the S&P Technology Sector Bullish Percent Index, $BPINFO (see magenta square), tells you that over 70% of tech stocks are exhibiting Point & Figure buy signals, which indicates cautious bullishness, as some stocks may be overbought.

MSFT’s sideways movement, a range that lasted nearly four months, coincided with negative buying pressure in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). But the current attempt to break above resistance at $440 is accompanied by a notable surge in buying pressure (see magenta rectangle in the CMF panel).

A bullish trader would likely enter a long position at a break of $440, set a stop loss at $425 (given the concentration of trading volume — see the magenta line and Volume-by-Price), and watch $466, MSFT’s all-time-high as a technical target price (fundamental targets will differ).

In contrast, let’s look at the worst performers using the same MarketCarpets view. You can do this by cycling through each sector on MarketCarpets to get a comprehensive view of which industries seem to be underperforming. Here’s what I discovered in the Investment Services industry within the Financial sector (see image below).

FIGURE 3. ONE-MONTH MARKETCARPETS CHART OF THE FINANCIAL SECTOR’S INVESTMENT SERVICES INDUSTRY. Among the big brokerages, Morgan Stanley (MS) appears to be one of the bigger underperformers.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If the MarketCarpets’ Up Days minus Down Days calculation indicates weakness or underperformance, it helps to look at the wider context of trend, momentum, and overall technical strength.

Morgan Stanley (MS) has experienced more down days than up days over the past month relative to its peers. Could this signal weakness weighing upon its share price? Let’s shift to a daily chart for a closer look.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF MORGAN STANLEY. A rounding top pattern can indicate a toppy stock, although it can bounce off the bottom of the pattern formation.

MS is forming a rounding top pattern coming off a wide gap following a flag pattern. A rounding top is traditionally considered a bearish reversal pattern (though it can sometimes do the opposite and bounce at the bottom of the formation, so watch out). If it breaks below $128, the bottom of the formation, it’s likely to find support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) line or the most recent swing high point at $120.

Some traders might see this as a shorting opportunity (below $128), while others may see it as a buying opportunity (at $120, for instance). Whatever you decide might be the better way to go, it’s important to consider a few other mixed signals:

• The stock’s technical strength, as measured by the StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR) line, is favorably bullish at 84, indicating that the current weakness might be setting up for a minor pullback. A break below 70 would indicate technical weakness.
• The CMF indicates that selling pressure dominates the stock’s momentum, indicating the possibility that the stock’s reversal may be more than a mere “breather.”

Whether MS is poised for a minor pullback or a larger reversal, you’ll gain clarity once the price reacts to the key levels, allowing you to make your move.

These are just a few examples of many stocks you might have found using the MarketCarpets’ Up Days – Down Days tool. Try it out yourself and create a ChartList with your top 5 to 10 stocks. This will help you track their performance and identify trading opportunities over time.

At the Close

Incorporating MarketCarpets into your daily trading routine can significantly enhance your ability to find trading opportunities at a near glance. The Up Days – Down Days indicator, in particular, offers valuable insights into consistency in near-term price trends, helping you focus on stocks with sustained upward or downward movements. Make this tool a part of your routine, and build a ChartList to monitor the stocks you find.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The broader stock market indexes sold off slightly ahead of the November Non-Farm Payrolls data, which will be released Friday morning. Depending on which way the data goes, the market could sell off further or continue its bullish ride. If the market sells off, which stocks are flashing buy signals? To help me identify stocks to watch, I ran my StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) scan to identify which stocks were gaining technical strength.

My SCTR scan filtered 53 stocks and ETFs, which I sorted based on the universe (U) (the scan syntax is at the end of the article). I prefer to look at large-cap stocks and identify which ones are potential investing candidates. Going down Thursday’s list, the first stock that interested me was Cisco Systems (CSCO), mainly because of its simple and clear-looking chart.

Simplicity Attracts

The weekly chart of CSCO stock shows it reached a new all-time high on a relatively sharp upside move since the week of September 9. CSCO’s stock price is trading above its 5-week exponential moving average (EMA) and its 15-week simple moving average (SMA).

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF CSCO STOCK. The SCTR score is just above 76, the stock price is trading above its 5-week EMA, and its RSI has crossed above 70. There’s no indication of a reversal in the uptrend.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The SCTR score has crossed above the 76 threshold, and its relative strength index (RSI) is just above 70. From the data in the Symbol Summary page for CSCO, the stock is up 29.29% over one year. These are all indications that the price action in CSCO stock remains bullish.

Let’s now examine the daily chart of CSCO stock to determine whether it is worth buying and what the ideal entry and exit points will be. The daily chart confirms the shorter-term trend is still up. The upward-sloping trendline coincides with the 21-day EMA, and trading volume is slightly increasing.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF CSCO STOCK. The stock has retained its uptrend bouncing off its 21-day EMA. CSCO is also outperforming the Nasdaq Composite slightly. The Full Stochastic oscillator indicates the stock is overbought.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

CSCO’s performance shows it’s outperforming the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) by 15.64% (see panel below CSCO stock price chart). The Full Stochastic oscillator shows the stock is overbought but, as you can see from past data, the oscillator can stay overbought for an extended period.

The Game Plan

CSCO may not be as glamorous as some of the other mega-cap tech stocks, but its path is a steady and slow uptrend. This may be the reason it’s outperforming the Nasdaq and possibly some of the other more volatile mega-cap stocks, such as NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), and Apple, Inc. (AAPL).

If CSCO’s price action continues grinding higher slowly and steadily, I would look for a pullback, which might be to the 21-day EMA or above. I’ll watch the market closely on Friday after the November NFP report is released to see if there’s a selloff or if market continues rising higher.

As long as the technicals stay in place for an uptrend, the stock is a buy. When any of the indicators no longer support the uptrend, you abandon the stock or do not even consider buying it.

Sometimes, as Bruce Lee would say, “Simplicity is the key to brilliance.”

The SCTR Scan

[country is US] and [sma(20,volume) > 100000] and [[SCTR.us.etf x 76] or [SCTR.large x 76] or [SCTR.us.etf x 78] or [SCTR.large x 78] or [SCTR.us.etf x 80] or [SCTR.large x 80]]

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

My recent discussions on the Market Misbehavior podcast have often included some comments on the interest rate environment, particularly the shape of the yield curve. We’ve had an inverted yield curve since late 2022, and so the yield curve taking on a more normal shape could mean a huge tailwind to certain sectors and groups. 

When the Yield Curve is No Longer Inverted

Here we’re showing the Ten Year Treasury Yield, along with two ways to show the shape of the yield curve by comparing different durations. The first panel below the price compares the 3-month yield to the 10-year yield, and the bottom panel shows the 2-year yield versus the 10-year yield.

Back in 2022, both of these spreads went below the zero line, indicating that the yield curve was inverted because long-term yields were now lower than short-term yields. Due to the Fed raising short-term interest rates to try to bring inflation in check after the COVID pandemic, along with a general downtrend in bond prices, this inverted shape to the curve raised fears among investors for a recession.

With inflationary pressures fairly subsiding into late 2024, the Fed has now begun lowering short-term rates, which will most likely cause the yield curve to regain a normal shape.  As we can see from the Dynamic Yield Curve tool on StockCharts, the yield curve moving back to a normal shape can often lead to lower stock prices in the short-term. However, two ETFs come to mind that should do better in this new market phase.

Regional Banks Get a Major Tailwind

The financial sector in general experienced a particularly weak start to the year, with financials underperforming growth sectors into the summer. But regional banks have begun to mount a fairly strong rally in Q4, perhaps reflecting optimism going into 2025.

The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has shown a series of breakouts in 2024, including a new 52-week high in July on strong momentum, as well as a gap higher in early November. KRE now sits above two upward-sloping moving averages, and the RSI suggests strong, but not excessive, momentum.

Regional banks essentially borrow money at the short end of the curve, then lend those funds out to individuals at the long end of the curve to buy houses and make other large purchases. A steeper yield curve would imply a much more hospitable environment for regional banks, which could mean much further upside for KRE.

Small Caps Could Thrive Given Sector Weightings

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both heavily weighted in growth sectors like technology and communication services, the small cap indexes feature much more of a balanced exposure to value and growth stocks. As guest Tom Bowley pointed out on our podcast, smaller companies usually need to borrow money, so lower rates could mean a better environment for small caps as well.

Here, we’re applying our Market Trend Model to the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Similar to our main Market Trend Model using the S&P 500, we can see that small caps have shown bullish signals on the long-term and medium-term models for all of 2024. While the short-term model has turned negative a number of times this year, the model currently indicates short-term strength.

The key with small caps is the relative strength, which measures whether the IWM is actually outperforming the S&P 500. While small caps have been moving higher in the second half of the year, they have still been underperforming large caps. However, given this shift in interest rates, we could be heading into a new year where small caps represent a decent opportunity to outperform the SPX.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.