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Augustus Minerals Limited (ASX: AUG) has executed a binding share purchase agreement (“SPA”) with MCA Nominees Pty Ltd (“MCA”) to acquire 100% of the issued capital in Music Well Gold Mines Pty Ltd (“MWGM”), an entity which holds the exploration licences comprising the Music Well Gold Project (“Project”). The Project is in the Eastern Goldfields region of Western Australia located 35km north of Leonora.

  • The large contiguous tenement package covers an area of 1,345 sq km in a region that hosts gold endowment of >12Moz1 gold and >450kozpa gold production2 within 50km of the project.

Neighbouring operating mines include:

Northern Star3 (ASX:NST)

    • Thunderbox Mine3 (4.2M oz Au Resources) 20km to the west
    • Wonder Underground (0.9Moz Au Resources3) <1km west

Genesis Minerals4 (ASX:GMD)

    • Hub Project (0.7 Moz Au Resources) adjoining Music Well Project

Vault Minerals5 (ASX:VAU)

    • Darlot Gold Mine (1.9 Moz Au Resources) is located 12km north
    • King of the Hills mine (4.1 Moz Au Resources) 20km to the south west
  • Extensive geophysics, gravity, soil sampling and rock chipping have already been completed with data validation and target prioritization underway
  • Potential for gold discoveries from the dedicated and focused Augustus exploration team over the next 2 years.
Andrew Ford, GM Exploration commented

“The acquisition of such a large prospective gold exploration package in close proximity to operating mines owned by Northern Star, Genesis and Vault Minerals with +12M oz of resources and over 450kozpa gold production2 is a significant coup for Augustus (Figure 1).

“With the gold price now exceeding A$4,000/oz it provides Augustus Shareholders with significant exposure to future discovery in one of the greatest gold provinces in the world”.

Background

Comprising ten granted exploration licences covering an area of approximately 1,052km2 and two exploration licences in application covering an area of 293km2. The total tenement package is 1,345 sq km making the Project one of the largest exploration packages in the region.

Augustus believes that adding a gold focussed exploration project of this size provides optionality and complements its copper/base-metals/uranium focus at the Ti Tree Shear project in the Gascoyne.

Music Well Project

The Project is located within the Murrin Murrin domain, Kurnalpi Terrane of the Yilgarn Craton in the Leonora / Laverton Greenstone Belt of Western Australia.

The Yilgarn is a globally significant mineralised province for gold, nickel and aluminium, and also hosts major deposits of other minerals such as copper, zinc and iron along with other resources such as tantalum, lithium, vanadium, uranium and rare earth elements (“REEs”).

MWGM initiated the consolidation of tenements and commenced field work, on ground exploration and targeting studies from November 2019. In the resulting 5-year period from November 2019 to November 2024 the Company has consolidated a tenement package of 1,345 sq kms and has identified priority targets for follow up exploration work for Air Core, RC and Diamond Drilling.

These high priority targets have been identified by using MWGMs “Three – Schema Gold Prospectivity Model” which incorporates and utilises classical structural mapping techniques, geochemistry such as Ultra Fine + (UFF) soil sampling, rock chip sampling and advanced geophysics. This multi-disciplinary approach to exploration utilising high-resolution airborne magnetics, gravity and radiometric data, including (UFF) soil sampling over + 1,052sq kms also includes the reinterpretation of the solid geology, structure and deformation history of the region to inform local interpretation of the geological framework and identification of the targets completed over a 5-year period within the Project area.

The geological studies, completed with the assistance of a group of technical specialists, including Southern Geoscience, Fathom Geophysics, Tower Geoscience, Geobase Australia, Daishat Geodictic Gravity Surveyors, Walter Witt Experience and GeoSpy Australia utilising high-resolution airborne magnetics, gravity and radiometric data.

The principal target types include gold in shear zones within granitoids and greenstones (analogous to the nearby Wonder Deeps Gold Mine (Northern Star) and intrusion-related gold systems potentially analogous to King of the Hills and Darlot Centenary mines located southwest and north of the Music Well Gold Project respectively. The Music Well Gold Project is considered to be prospective for gold, base metals and also for lithium, tantalum and REE, which will also be investigated.

The tenement area is characterised by a strongly deformed stratigraphy and intrusions and contains numerous predominantly west-northwest anastomosing subparallel shear zones providing links potentially to Wonder Deeps and Thunderbox gold mines (Northern Star) located to the west of the project area; and the Hub (Redcliffe) gold deposit located to the east (Genesis).

In addition, a series of north-northwest and north-northeast structures trend through the project area and structures of a similar orientation host many of the gold deposits in the Leonora / Laverton area.

There are numerous operating gold mines in the district including the Darlot Gold Mine (~12 km to the north), the King of the Hills Mine (~20 km to the west), the Leonora Gold Camp (~30km to the southwest), and the Thunderbox Gold Mine (~20 km to the west) (Figure 2).

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A contraction continued in the cobalt market during the year’s third quarter, with metal values falling from US$27,151.50 per metric ton (MT) on July 1 to US$24,299 by the end of September.

The 10 percent decline is part of a larger 16.56 percent year-to-date contraction.

“This quarter saw minimal pricing movements as the market experienced a prolonged period of low prices,” said Roman Aubry, cobalt pricing analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

He went on to note that during the third quarter, all of the cobalt grades Benchmark follows sank to their lowest levels since the company began tracking prices for the battery metal in 2017.

Cobalt metal price chart, Q3 2024.

Chart via Trading Economics.

“Prices for cobalt metal approached US$10 per pound, and cobalt hydroxide, a feedstock for cobalt metal and battery chemicals, approached US$6 per pound due to weak buyer interest and bearish market outlook,” he said.

“Cobalt sulfate prices had initially held a floor of RMB 27,500 per MT (US$3,857.23),’ continued Aubry.

‘However, as the quarter came to an end, cheap recycled cobalt sulfate in China undercut prices from the virgin market and has led to a further decrease in prices.”

Cobalt demand in the doldrums

The cobalt price pressure seen during the third quarter was largely due to a combination of oversupply and weakening demand, particularly from the electric vehicle (EV) battery sector.

The market is grappling with the effects of cobalt’s diminishing role in battery chemistries as manufacturers increasingly turn to lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, which contain no cobalt, or opt for nickel-based alternatives with lower cobalt content. This shift has been fueled by efforts to mitigate the environmental and ethical issues associated with cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the largest cobalt-producing nation.

Additionally, as cobalt production capacity expands in countries like Australia and Angola, oversupply pressures are expected to persist, keeping prices relatively low in the near term.

Industry experts predict that unless there is a significant surge in demand from emerging technologies or battery innovations, cobalt prices will remain suppressed, reflecting a structural change in market dynamics.

“The supply of cobalt has proven to exceed what the market has been able to absorb, and weak buyer interest and full stocks have led to prices being incapable of recovering,” noted Aubry. “Overall, a bearish market is expected through 2025 as participants speculate on what is the lowest price cobalt can fall to.”

Swelling cobalt supply prevents price growth

For Project Blue’s Jack Bedder, the most prevalent trend weighing on the cobalt market in Q3 was oversupply.

“(London Metal Exchange) off-warrant stockpiled cobalt metal has been rising, and trade data indicated an increase in China’s cobalt metal exports to the European market,’ the expert added.

Bedder, who is the co-founder and director of the critical metals consultancy, also pointed to higher output in the DRC and Indonesia as a headwind to cobalt price growth.

“Oversupply of cobalt intermediate continues, underpinned by increased production from the DRC’s cobalt hydroxide and Indonesian Ni-Co MHP (nickel-cobalt mixed hydroxide precipitate),” he said.

While Bedder explained that declining prices have caused companies to reschedule production plans and reduce their production guidance, there is still promise on the development side.

In mid-August, Electra Battery Materials (TSXV:ELBM,NASDAQ:ELBM) received a US$20 million grant from the US Department of Defense to support its cobalt refinery project in Ontario, which it says is set to be North America’s first producer of battery-grade cobalt sulfate. Located in Temiskaming Shores, the C$250 million facility aims to strengthen the EV supply chain and reduce US reliance on foreign sources for critical minerals.

The funding aligns with the US’ strategy of securing essential minerals for defense and technology sectors.

Less than a month later, the company garnered another funding infusion.

“Electra received ample financial backing from the US government to develop its cobalt sulfate refinery in Canada,” said Bedder. “The company has received a total of US$40 million in Q3 2024.”

Electra’s Department of Defense funding wasn’t the only news on the development side.

In late June, Nth Cycle commissioned a 21,000 square foot facility designed to refine metal scrap, e-waste and refinery waste into high-purity critical metals like nickel and cobalt.

US and Canada boost EV tariffs

In addition to building domestic cobalt mining and refining capacity, the US and Canada are working to reduce purchases of Chinese EVs. Both countries have implemented steep tariffs on EVs originating in China.

At the end of August, the Canadian government levied a 100 percent tariff on Chinese EVs. The heightened tariff followed a similar announcement out of the US in May. America also added smaller tariffs on strategic goods necessary for EV production, such as solar cells, semiconductors and lithium batteries.

While the spirit of the new EV taxes aims to spur on domestic production and EV sales, both Aubry and Bedder said they don’t see the tariffs supporting cobalt price growth.

“It is unlikely to have any effect in the short term, as Chinese EVs still remain much cheaper than their western counterparts, even with the tariffs in place, so there is limited incentive for North American producers to build domestic capacity as they are not cost competitive,” said Aubry.

China adds to cobalt-refining capacity

As North America looks to bolster ex-China supply, the Asian nation continues to build its cobalt presence.

“In August, GEM (SZSE:002340) commenced commercial production of a 10,000 MT per year refinery in Hubei province, China. The refinery will be using recycled material to produce standard-grade cobalt metal 99.8 percent,” Bedder said.

He also noted that Tengyuan Cobalt (SZSE:301219) has announced plans to build a new nickel-cobalt refinery in Ganzhou province, China. Commercial production is planned for the fourth quarter of 2025.

“Last year, the company produced 15,400 MT of cobalt metal after completing expansions in December 2022,” he said.

Some of that increased output could be earmarked for China’s strategic cobalt reserve. In late May, reports surfaced that the country’s State Reserve Bureau planned on purchasing 15,000 MT from domestic producers.

“Although this purchase was significantly bigger than previous years, the increased tonnage of the purchase is largely believed to have been a measure taken by the Chinese State Reserve Bureau to offset the significant ramp up in Chinese cobalt metal production capacity,” he said. “As a result, it did not have the strengthening effect that many hoped it would, as Chinese metal production still exceeds what the market is able to absorb.”

What factors will move the cobalt market in 2024?

Benchmark’s Aubry advised monitoring cobalt contracting.

“The price floor for cobalt hydroxide is currently set due to long-term contracts that are set to expire early in 2025, and as a result we may see further price erosion moving into next year,” he said.

While he cautioned that the supply/demand story is still very weak moving forward, he noted that cobalt’s future is heavily correlated to copper. “If prices come off further, we may see margins squeezed due to an increasing oversupply next year,” he said. “If the copper market stays strong, producers in the DRC will be incentivized to continue mining copper and cobalt, even if the price of cobalt hydroxide declines below US$6 per pound.”

Moving into to 2025, Bedder is tracking cobalt stockpiling from China’s State Reserve Bureau.

High quantities of Chinese cobalt flowing into European markets, coinciding with existing London Metal Exchange warehouse inventories, is another development he is monitoring.

Elsewhere, Bedder noted the ongoing dispute between Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) and the DRC government.

“Much like the situation with CMOC Group (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SZSE:603993) in 2022, the DRC government has alleged that Glencore’s subsidiary, Kamoto Copper, owes the state 800 million euros (US$894 million) related to royalty payments,” said Bedder. “As we approach Q4 and 2025, we are eager to see how this might impact cobalt prices, particularly if significant evidence supports the claim. Notably, this also comes after Glencore’s recent decision to halt cobalt hydroxide stockpiling in the DRC.”

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Referring to the World Gold Council’s latest report, he highlighted the return of western exchange-traded fund investors. With interest rates on the decline and geopolitical turmoil still strong, they’ve been more eager to buy.

‘Overall holdings of gold in investment portfolios has been stable, but actually adding to gold allocations has required that opportunity cost, or that carrying cost, to come down for the investor in the western market, and that’s what we’re starting to see,’ Cavatoni explained during the interview.

Cavatoni also spoke about how the upcoming US election may impact gold, as well as other segments of demand for the yellow metal, including bar and coin demand, jewelry demand and technology demand.

‘Where the election will have impact (for gold) is on how policies will develop,’ he said.

‘That tends to show up six months or so post an election outcome when policies can be discussed, clarified and potentially start to be implemented. That’s why we think that six months into the election outcome is when you’re going to start to see more of an effect on the gold price,’ Cavatoni said, adding that there may still be short-term volatility.

Watch the interview above for more of his thoughts on gold market trends to watch right now.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Iron ore prices have displayed volatility in the past few years as the world has dealt with the economic uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 lockdowns, the Russia-Ukraine war and rising levels of inflation.

Prices for the base metal reached a record high of over US$220 per metric ton (MT) in May 2021, but it wasn’t long before they declined to a low point of US$84.50 in November of that year. At the time, analysts identified lower demand from China alongside rising supply levels as reasons why prices dropped so drastically in late 2021.

Iron ore prices rebounded to trade in the US$120 to US$130 range in 2023, spurred on by supply issues in Australia and Brazil, as well as the Russia-Ukraine war; higher export duties in India and renewed demand from China have also contributed to the commodity’s higher prices.

However, that positive sentiment in the iron ore market evaporated in 2024 as the global economic outlook weakened on higher interest rates, lower demand and challenges in China’s property sector. After starting the year at a high of US$144 per MT, iron ore prices slid to a low US$91.28 per MT on September 10. China’s recent announcement of economic stimulus measures and the Fed’s move to cut interest rates may give iron a boost.

To understand the dynamics of the iron ore market, it’s helpful to know which countries are major producers. With that in mind, these are the top 10 for iron ore production by country in 2023, using the latest data provided by the US Geological Survey. Production data for public companies is sourced from the mining database MDO.

1. Australia

Usable iron ore: 960 million metric tons
Iron content: 590 million metric tons

Australia is the largest iron producing country by far, with usable iron ore production of 960 million metric tons in 2023. Australia’s leading iron ore producer is BHP (ASX:BHP,LSE:BHP,NYSE:BHP), but Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,LSE:RIO,NYSE:RIO) and Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG,OTCQX:FSUMF) are also large producers.

The Pilbara region is the most notable iron ore jurisdiction in Australia, if not the world. In fact, Rio Tinto calls its Pilbara Blend ‘the world’s most recognised brand of iron ore.’ One of the company’s iron producing operations in the region is Hope Downs iron ore complex, a 50/50 joint venture with Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting. The complex hosts four open-pit mines with an annual production capacity of 47 million tonnes.

As for BHP, the major iron miner’s Western Australia Iron Operations joint venture comprise five mining hubs and four processing hubs. One such hub is Area C, which hosts eight open-cut mining areas alone. The company also has an operating 85 percent interest in the Newman iron operations.

2. Brazil

Usable iron ore: 440 million metric tons
Iron content: 280 million metric tons

In Brazil, iron production came to 440 million metric tons of usable iron ore production in 2023.

The largest iron ore districts in the country are the states of Pará and Minas Gerais, which together account for 98 percent of Brazil’s annual iron ore output. Pará is home to the largest iron ore mine in the world, Vale’s (NYSE:VALE) Carajas mine. Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Vale is the world’s biggest producer of iron ore pellets.

“In 2023, supply ramp up will be led by Brazil and India, while Australian shipments will stay largely rangebound,” said David Cachot, research director for steel and raw materials at Wood Mackenzie. Indeed, Brazilian iron ore exports were on the rise in 2023. That trend has continued well into 2024.

3. China

Usable iron ore: 280 million metric tons
Iron content: 170 million metric tons

China’s iron production amounted to 280 million metric tons of usable iron ore in 2023. The Asian nation is the world’s largest consumer of iron ore, despite being only the third largest iron-producing country.

China’s top producing iron ore mine is the Dataigou iron mine in Laioning province, with production of 9.07 million MT in 2023. The underground mine is owned by Glory Harvest Group Holdings.

With China being the world’s largest producer of stainless steel, its domestic supply is not enough to meet demand. The country imports over 70 percent of global seaborne iron ore.

4. India

Usable iron ore: 270 million metric tons
Iron content: 170 million metric tons

India’s iron production for 2023 totaled 270 million metric tons of usable iron ore, climbing from the previous year’s total of 251 million metric tons. Its iron content production rose from 156 million metric tons to 170 million metric tons.

India’s largest iron ore miner, NMDC, hit a production milestone in 2021 of 40 million MT per year, the first such company to do so in the country. NMDC is targeting an annual production rate of 60 million MT by 2027. The company operates the Bailadila mining complexes in Chhattisgarh state, and the Donimalai and Kumaraswamy mines in Karnataka state.

5. Russia

Usable iron ore: 88 million metric tons
Iron content: 58 million metric tons

Russia’s iron ore production came in at 88 million metric tons for 2023, making comes it the fifth largest iron-producing country in the world.

The region of Belgorod Oblast is home to two of the country’s biggest iron ore producing mines: Metalloinvest MC’s Lebedinsky GOK, which in 2023 produced an estimated 22.05 million metric tons per annum of iron ore; and Novolipetsk Steel’s Stoilensky GOK, which last year produced an estimated 19.56 million metric tons per annum of iron ore.

In response to serious economic sanctions on the country over its aggressive war against Ukraine, Russia’s iron ore exports fell dramatically in 2022 to 84.2 million metric tons from 96 million metric tons in the previous year. Together, these two countries previously accounted for 36 percent of global iron or non-alloy steel exports. The European Union has restricted imports of Russian iron ore.

6. Iran

Usable iron ore: 77 million metric tons
Iron content: 50 million metric tons

Iran amassed 77 million metric tons in iron production in the form of usable iron ore in 2023. The country’s iron output has been on the rise in recent years — it was the eighth highest iron producer in 2022 and the 10th in 2021. One of the most important iron ore mines in the country is Gol-e-Gohar in Kerman province.

The Iranian government is targeting production of 55 million MT of steel per annum by 2025 to 2026. To reach this goal, the country’s iron ore industry will need to produce 160 million MT of iron ore. To better meet the requirements of domestic steel producers, Iran began levying a 25 percent duty on iron ore exports in September 2019. This has changed multiple times since, and in February 2024 the country cut duties on these products significantly.

7. Canada

Usable iron ore: 70 million MT
Iron content: 42 million metric tons

Canada’s iron production totaled 70 million metric tons of usable iron ore and 42 million metric tons of iron content in 2023.

Champion Iron (TSX:CIA,OTC Pink:CHPRF) is one company producing iron ore in the country. It owns and operates the Bloom Lake complex in Québec. Champion ships iron concentrate from the Bloom Lake open pit by rail, initially on the Bloom Lake Railway, to a ship loading port in Sept-Îles, Québec. A Phase 2 expansion, which entered commercial production in December 2022, has increased annual capacity from 7.4 million MT to 15 million MT of 66.2 percent iron ore concentrate.

In 2024, Champion is upgrading half of its Bloom Lake mine capacity to a direct reduction quality pellet feed iron ore with up to 69 percent iron.

8. South Africa

Usable iron ore: 61 million metric tons
Iron content: 39 million metric tons

South Africa’s iron production was 61 million metric tons of usable iron ore and 39 million metric tons of iron content in 2023. The country’s output has declined significantly in the past few years, down from 73.1 million MT and 46.5 million MT two years earlier. South Africa’s mining industry is grappling with transport and logistics issues, most notably due to railway maintenance challenges.

Kumba Iron Ore (OTC Pink:KUMBF,JSE:KIO) is Africa’s largest iron ore producer. The company has three main iron ore production assets in the country, including its flagship mine, Sishen, which accounts for a large majority of Kumba’s total iron ore output. Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF) owns a 69.7 percent share of the company.

9. Kazakhstan

Usable iron ore: 53 million metric tons
Iron content: 8.8 million metric tons

Kazakhstan’s iron production came in at 53 million metric tons of usable iron ore in 2023. It has also slipped in recent years.

Kazakhstan has several iron ore mines in operation, with four of the top five owned by Eurasian Resources Group. The largest of these iron ore mines is the Sokolovsky surface and underground mine located in Kostanay. Last year, it produced an estimated 7.52 million tonnes per annum of iron ore.

The Sokolov-Sarybai Mining Production Association (SMPA) in Northern Kazakhstan was the main supplier of iron ore to Russia’s Magnitogorsk Iron and Steelworks prior to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the SMPA has halted iron ore shipments to Magnitogorsk.

10. Sweden

Usable iron ore: 38 million metric tons
Iron content: 27 million metric tons

Sweden’s iron production for 2023 was 38 million metric tons of usable iron ore. Iron ore production in the country has been increasing over the last decade and a half.

The country’s largest iron ore mine is state-owned Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara’s (LKAB) Kiruna mine, which has been in operation for more than 100 years. Kiruna is also the world’s largest underground iron ore mine. According to Mining Data Online, Kiruna’s iron ore pellets and fines production totaled 13 million metric tons in addition to 0.6 million metric tons of lump ore used in the blast furnace ironmaking process.

Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Incendiary devices that ignited in Germany and the United Kingdom in July were part of a covert Russian operation that aimed to start fires aboard cargo and passenger flights heading to the US and Canada, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported Monday, citing Western security officials.

In July, device explosions at DHL logistics hubs in Leipzig, Germany, and Birmingham, UK, kickstarted a race to find the suspects, WSJ reported.

The devices, which were reportedly electric massagers implanted with a magnesium-based flammable substance, were sent to the UK from Lithuania and “appear to have been a test run to figure out how to get such incendiary devices aboard planes bound for North America,” the WSJ reported.

When the WSJ asked Russia for comment about the suspected Russian plot, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied the allegations. “We have never heard any official accusations” of Russian involvement, adding: “These are traditional unsubstantiated insinuations from the media.”” He said according to WSJ.

Polish authorities in October said four people had been arrested under suspicion of being involved in international sabotage and a sabotage group, according to a statement from the national prosecutor’s office. An international search has been initiated for two more suspects.

The Polish statement, which does not name the sabotage group, says “parcels containing camouflaged explosives and dangerous materials” were sent via courier to the UK and European Union countries and “spontaneously ignited or detonated during land and air transport.”

It adds that the group’s goal “was [also] to test the transfer channel for this type of shipments which were ultimately to be sent to the United States of America and Canada.”

The spokesperson added that the investigation is ongoing, and they are “liaising with other European law enforcement partners to identify whether this may or may not be connected to any other similar-type incidents across Europe.”

Multiple security officials across Europe describe a threat that is metastasizing as Russian agents, increasingly under scrutiny by security services and frustrated in their own operations, hire local amateurs to undertake high-risk, and often deniable, crimes on their behalf.

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An American-Iranian journalist who once worked for a US-funded broadcaster is believed to have been detained in Iran, according to his former employer and multiple press freedom groups.

Reza Valizadeh was arrested in Tehran in September, a source close to his family told his former employer Radio Farda, the Iranian branch of the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).

Iran has not acknowledged detaining Valizadeh and the Iranian mission to the United Nations has declined to comment on his situation.

RFE/RL says it has had no official confirmation of the charges facing Valizadeh, who left Radio Farda in November 2022, but it is “profoundly concerned about the continued arrest, harassment and threats against media professionals by the Iranian regime.”

Reports of the journalist’s apparent detention come amid heightened tensions between the United States and Iran, whose Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday promised a “teeth-breaking” response to Israel and the United States after Israeli strikes targeted Iranian military sites late last month.

Pressured to return

In a post on his X account on February 20, 2024, Valizadeh suggested Iranian authorities had pressured his family to convince him to return to the country.

In a later post, on August 13, the journalist said he had arrived back in the Iranian capital on March 6, 2024.

“Before that, I had half-finished negotiations with the (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) Intelligence Organization. Finally, I returned to my country after 14 years, on my own responsibility and without a letter of amnesty, even verbally,” the post read.

RFE/RL said it was not clear under what circumstances Valizadeh had written the post.

Citing one of Valizadeh’s former colleagues, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to fears of reprisal, the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) reported in October that Valizadeh was being held without access to a lawyer in Iran’s Evin prison, which is notorious for housing critics of the Iranian regime.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which focuses on Iran, also believes Valizadeh is being held in Evin.

“Iranian authorities must immediately release journalist Reza Valizadeh and drop any charges levied against him,” said Yeganeh Rezaian, CPJ’s interim Middle East and North Africa program coordinator.

“I cannot say clearly enough to my fellow Americans what already appears on the Department of State’s website: ‘Do not travel to Iran, due to the risk of kidnapping and the arbitrary arrest and detention of US citizens.’ Simply put: Do not go to Iran,” the State Department spokesperson said.

Iran has a long history of using dual nationals as bargaining chips in its troubled relationship with the West. In 2023, it released five Americans designated by the US as wrongfully detained as part of a wider deal that included the US unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian funds.

It is currently marking the 25th anniversary of the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, in which 52 US citizens were held captive for 444 days.

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China’s air force is set to officially debut its new stealth fighter jet, the J-35A, giving observers the first look at a highly anticipated asset that adds to the country’s fast growing military capabilities.

The fighter, an image of which was released during an air force press conference Tuesday, will appear at an air show in the southern city of Zhuhai next week, officials said.

The development of the jet is widely seen as part of Beijing’s bid to match the United States’ stealth fighter capabilities – as it pushes to modernize its armed forces and assert its military might in Asia.

The J-35A is “designed mainly for air combat operations and can also conduct air-to-surface attack,” according to a report from a Chinese military-affiliated outlet.

If the aircraft is commissioned into operation, it would make China the second country after the US to have two types of stealth fighter jets, according to experts cited by Chinese state media.

China’s J-20 stealth fighter entered service in 2017, officials said at the time.

Stealth fighters are those that are designed to evade radar and other monitoring to conduct missions without being detected or intercepted.

The J-35 is likely to be designed as a series and may also be used as carrier-based aircraft in the future, Chinese military expert Li Li told state broadcaster CCTV. This would “greatly improve the overall strength of China’s sea and air combat,” she said.

The fighter’s debut follows what analysts at Janes global open-source intelligence firm have described as China’s “bolstering” of its forward theater commands with additional J-20s.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force between July 2023 and this June inducted more than 70 J-20s, bringing the force’s operational fleet up to approximately 195, according to a Janes report published earlier this year.

It’s not clear when the new J-35A fighter would be commissioned into military use and where the fighters would be deployed.

The sparse details released about the fighter so far also make it difficult to compare with other stealth fighters, including the US’ F-22 and F-35.

Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, said the J-35A, which has been in development for more than 10 years, was likely intended for the PLA Navy.

“The J-35 made its maiden flight in 2021, but as a derivative of an earlier prototype, it may be ready for production by early next year,” Schuster said, adding that the J-35A model likely improved on that earlier design with more powerful engines.

China’s development of stealth fighters has for years been dogged by accusations that it stole crucial stealth fighter technology from the US.

Beijing has vigorously denied those claims, which came to light with the 2015 publication by German magazine Der Spiegel of documents purportedly from US National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden.

The J-35A is a “new type of stealth fighter jet independently developed by Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC),” a Chinese military affiliated outlet said this week.

China’s J-35A is not the only technology that will be on show for the first time at next week’s airshow, which takes place in Zhuhai from November 12 to 17.

The H-19 surface-to-air missile system and new “reconnaissance and strike” UAVs will also have their public debut, Col. Niu Wenbo of the air force’s equipment department said Tuesday.

CCTV has also reported that Russia’s Su-57 stealth fighter would join the air show for the first time, among equipment from 49 different countries and regions that would be represented this year.

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A French court on Friday convicted six teenagers in connection with the 2020 beheading of history teacher Samuel Paty, whose murder shocked the country.

The teacher had shown his pupils caricatures of the Prophet Mohammad in a class on freedom of expression, angering some Muslim parents. Most Muslims avoid depictions of prophets, considering them to be blasphemous.

Among those on trial was a teenage girl who had allegedly told her parents that Paty had asked Muslim pupils to leave the room before showing the caricatures.

The court found her guilty of having made false accusation charges and slanderous comments, as it was established that she was not in the class at the time.

The other adolescents were found guilty of charges related to taking part in a pre-meditated criminal conspiracy and helping to prepare an ambush.

Paty, 47, was killed outside his school in a Paris suburb by an 18-year-old assailant of Chechen origin, who was shot dead by police soon after the attack.

The court found those adolescents guilty of having pointed out Paty to the murderer.

Louis Cailliez, lawyer for Paty’s sister Mickaelle, told reporters his client was “satisfied with the full conviction,” but less so with the sentences, that she found “too lenient”.

Dylan Slama, a lawyer for one of the teenagers, said that though it was hard to talk about satisfaction in such tragic circumstances, there was a sense of relief for his client.

The heaviest sentence was given to an adolescent who was formally given a 6-month prison sentence, although he should be able to serve this at home while under electronic surveillance.

The girl who was found guilty of making false accusations and slanderous comments was given an 18-month suspended sentence and put on probation measures for two years.

All six teenagers’ suspended sentences are tied to them following a strict set of probation measures for two to three years.

Another trial in connection with Paty’s killing, involving adults this time, is set to take place at the end of next year.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

High in the mist-shrouded Himalayas, a winding mountain road opens to a clearing in the pine forested valley, revealing rows of uniform Tibetan-style houses, each topped with a Chinese flag.

Construction is booming in this remote place. Piles of logs and other building materials line the road. On a nearby hillside, cranes tower over rising housing blocks.

“They are building resettlement houses here,” says the Chinese travel vlogger who captured these scenes last year, speaking into his phone on a roadside. “When people live and settle here, it undeniably confirms that this is our country’s territory.”

But the village – known as Demalong and formally founded in March last year with a community of 70 families, according to a government notice seen in the footage – is not only located in territory claimed by the world’s ascendent superpower.

It is one of a string of Chinese settlements that also fall well within the border shown on official maps of Bhutan – a Buddhist kingdom of fewer than 1 million people that’s never agreed on a formal international border with China.

For centuries, herders looking for summer pastures were the main presence in this harsh and inhospitable region some 14,000 feet (4,200 meters) above sea level in the eastern Himalayas. But now, there is a growing population as the Chinese government incentivizes hundreds of people to settle there from across Tibet, the region of China that borders Bhutan.

Those settlements show another, quieter front in China’s expanding efforts to assert its control over disputed, peripheral territories – also playing out in the South and East China Seas – as Chinese leader Xi Jinping seeks to bolster national security and enhance China’s position over its rivals.

Bhutan and China have been holding yet-unresolved border talks for decades. Looming in the backdrop of those discussions is India, China’s biggest regional rival and Bhutan’s close diplomatic ally.

The nuclear-armed neighbors have previously gone to war and more recently engaged in a series of skirmishes over their disputed 2,100-mile (3,379-kilometer) border, which straddles Bhutan – and, in Beijing’s eyes, makes the small Himalayan nation all the more critical to its national security.

A comparison of China’s official map of the Tibet Autonomous Region and Bhutan’s national map published in its 2023 Statistical Yearbook show this development is located in territory claimed by both countries.

Bhutanese authorities, however, have repeatedly rejected previous reports of Chinese encroachment, including in a foreign media interview last year when then-Prime Minister Lotay Tshering “categorically” denied that China had been building in Bhutan’s territory.

Satellite images show the expansion of Chinese development in the Jakarlung valley between August 2020 and August 2024. Planet Labs
Satellite images show the expansion of Demalong village between December 2021 and January 2024. Planet Labs

“The map of Bhutan covering the northern border will be finalized in accordance to the demarcation of the Bhutan-China border,” the ministry’s statement said. It also pointed to the two countries’ boundary talks and said Bhutan was “confident that the northern border will be finalized in the near future.”

“China’s construction activities in the border region with Bhutan are aimed at improving the local livelihoods,” a ministry statement said. “China and Bhutan have their own claims regarding the territorial status of the relevant region, but both agree to resolve differences and disputes through friendly consultations and negotiations.”

The construction has taken place in border regions in northeast Bhutan and the west of the kingdom – near the disputed border between India and China, according to the research. The findings, also described by Barnett in The Diplomat, add to his 2021 Foreign Policy magazine report on earlier construction in the same northern area – and document what the latest research describes as a new “surge” in building there since early last year.

High-altitude rivalry

The blurry boundaries through the Himalayan peaks and plateaus separating China and its southern neighbors are often relics of imperial era agreements and nomadic routes – now charged with the nationalist rhetoric and military might of New Delhi and Beijing.

Landlocked by both, Bhutan has long navigated carefully between India – its largest development and trading partner, which until 2007 effectively controlled its foreign policy – and China, an economic and military giant with whom it has no formal diplomatic ties.

Bhutan’s place in their dispute was thrown into the spotlight in 2017, when the kingdom accused the Chinese army of building a road “inside Bhutanese territory” in the Doklam area, near a strategic and disputed junction between all three countries along Bhutan’s west.

Then, Indian troops moved into the area to block China – sparking a tense, 73-day standoff that threatened to pitch the rivals into conflict.

Though not part of India’s territorial claims, Doklam is close to the so-called “chicken’s neck,” or Siliguri Corridor, a vital artery between New Delhi and its far northeastern states. China claims Doklam has been its territory “since ancient times.”

Ultimately diffused, the incident was one more reminder for Beijing of the volatility of the unresolved border.

India and China reached an agreement on military disengagement along a section of their disputed border earlier this month – in a step toward easing tensions there.

However, strengthening its position in that rivalry has been a driving force for Beijing, experts say, as it extends its foothold in lands traditionally claimed by Bhutan – and enlists its citizens to relocate there to press its counterclaim.

“Knowing India has a strong presence in Bhutan, China naturally becomes vulnerable in the bordering region,” said Rishi Gupta, assistant director at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New Delhi.

“This vulnerability compels China to enhance its influence in Bhutan and assert its territorial claims more aggressively, seeking to counterbalance India’s strategic partnerships in the area.”

One year prior to the 2017 standoff, Beijing was already starting a major bid to bolster its claims by building roads and villages in the Jakarlung valley – along another China-Bhutan frontier far to the northeast of Doklam.

The buildup follows what observers say were long-standing efforts by China to convince Bhutan’s leaders to cede their claims in the west around Doklam – in exchange for Beijing giving up its claims to the northern areas.

In 2016, China founded Jieluobu, its first official village in the Jakarlung valley. Two years later, Jieluobu was branded a model “border xiaokang village” – one of hundreds of such villages built or upgraded in recent years along China’s western and southern frontiers.

The “xiaokang” – or “moderate prosperity” – villages along China’s borders have been billed as part of Beijing’s scheme to eradicate poverty and improve living conditions in its far-flung frontiers.

But experts say these villages are also part of Xi’s vision to use civilian settlements to solidify control of China’s border, amid perceived threats of foreign encroachment and infiltration – and a growing obsession with security.

“Only when there are people can the border remain stable,” the leader is often quoted as saying by officials in frontier regions.

By 2022, more than 600 “border xiaokang villages” – including Jieluobu – had been completed in Tibet, boosting its border population by 10.5%, the regional government said in its annual work report.

“It is no doubt that the villages are aimed to strengthen China’s territorial claims and control of the border regions, especially the disputed areas,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.

“Once the Chinese villagers are there, China has causes for stationing troops and performing administrative control. The strategy has a long history in China, tracing back as early as the Han dynasty,” she said.

No place anybody would choose

Chinese construction that began in the Jakurlung valley in 2016 has ramped up since last year relative to earlier periods, according to the research by SOAS’s Barnett, based on satellite imagery.

As of this summer, more than 2,000 residential units – estimated to have space for thousands of people – had been built in multiple settlements across both areas, according to the report.

That buildup has also been supported by an expanding network of roads, which geointelligence researcher Damien Symon says have progressed south from China into Bhutan over recent years.

“None of the roads connect into Bhutan, they start from the Chinese border and end in forest areas. There is no connectivity to existing Bhutanese roads or villages,” said Symon, of analysis collective The Intel Lab, who in a December 2023 report for London-based think tank Chatham House tracked new Chinese construction “across the contested border with Bhutan” in the north.

Road access is crucial for new settlements in the Jakarlung valley, which Chinese reports say used to be cut off from the outside world by heavy snow for half the year.

“These are not places anybody would normally choose to relocate to, because they are either extremely high or extremely exposed to the elements,” Barnett said.

To populate the cold, damp valley, officials in Tibet entice settlers from across the region with spacious new homes and generous subsidies.

In Jieluobu, the Tibetan herders moved into two-story houses with courtyards. Residents aged 16 and older are eligible for an annual subsidy of more than 20,000 yuan (about $2,800), state media reported.

Patriotic education is part of everyday life in Jieluobu. In 2021, the village held 150 study sessions on Xi’s speeches, party policies and history, Mandarin Chinese and border defense, state media reported. Since then, the village has also undergone a major expansion.

Meanwhile, in the southeastern part of the valley, Demalong has added 235 new homes since last year and aims to build a kindergarten and a clinic, according to government statements. It also has a military compound, the travel blogger’s video shows.

Since late September, a new wave of residents has moved into Demalong, Jieluobu, Semalong and Qujielong from as far as Nagqu, a city in northern Tibet some seven hours’ drive away, according to a local government notice and videos shared by relocatees on Chinese social media.

The new families, arriving in long columns of vans, coaches and trucks escorted by police cars, were greeted by red banners and traditional Tibetan dances, social media footage shows.

‘No intrusion’

Bhutan has repeatedly denied that Chinese construction has taken place in its territory.

Asked in March last year about reports of China building in the kingdom’s north, then-Prime Minister Lotay Tshering told Belgian outlet La Libre, “We are not making a big deal of it because it’s not in Bhutan.”

“We have said categorically that there is no intrusion as mentioned in the media,” he said. “This is an international border and we know exactly what belongs to us.”

In a separate interview with India’s The Hindu about six months later, the former prime minister, whose government was replaced in elections earlier this year, reiterated that “there are no real differences between China and Bhutan, but there is an un-demarcated border dating back to Tibet-Bhutan ties,” referring to the period before Tibet’s 1951 official annexation by Beijing.

As early as 2020, Bhutan’s ambassador to India said there was “no Chinese village inside Bhutan,” following Indian media reports about such development in the kingdom’s western borderlands.

That appears to be in sharp contrast to recent decades when Bhutan repeatedly protested what it claimed were incursions into its territory by Chinese soldiers and Tibetan herders. In 1997, Thimphu told Beijing that Tibetan herdsmen had been intruding into the Jakarlung valley and even constructed sheds there, according to Bhutan’s National Assembly records cited by Barnett.

In a 1998 pact, the two countries agreed to maintain the status quo in the border region as they continue talks to resolve the “boundary question.”

Observers say Bhutan’s rhetoric on this issue has become increasingly opaque in recent years, and some wonder whether the kingdom’s muted comments are because it’s already reached a tacit understanding with China to give up some territorial claims.

Others suggest Bhutan’s priority may be to keep relations stable so they can finally reach a deal – with the potential to ease the uncertainty of the countries’ power imbalance and bring the economic benefits of normalized ties.

“Most Bhutanese would love to see the borders demarcated and settled and a new chapter of friendly relations with China,” said Bhutanese scholar Karma Phuntsho.

But while Bhutan remains “keen to solve the border issues with China,” the remote border areas have little impact on Bhutanese peoples’ livelihoods, so, “the countries are taking time to reach the best mutually beneficial solutions,” he added.

Other observers take a more pointed view.

The Bhutanese “have realized that they have no way in which they can get back anything which the Chinese have occupied, and they lack the capacity … to police the border, let alone the military capacity to retrieve anything from the border,” said Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.

“So at one level, they have taken the position that they will try and resolve the border issue … pending that settlement, they don’t want anything to come up.”

Despite the negotiations over the decades, the kingdom has already shed land to China.

Bhutan’s official maps have lost a parcel of land to its northwest and the Menchuma valley and plateau in its northeast, according to Barnett. That northwest parcel, which includes Kula Kangri mountain, is often cited as covering some 400 square kilometers (154 sq miles).

“These areas fall north to the traditional boundary between Bhutan and China,” its statement said.

In 2021, Bhutanese and Chinese officials agreed to a “road map” to expedite settling their border. They picked up formal talks last October for the first time since the Doklam standoff, with Bhutan’s foreign minister making a rare visit to Beijing.

There, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi assured counterpart Tandi Dorji that Beijing was ready to “fix and develop China-Bhutan friendly relations in legal form.”

Regardless of how each side defines the location of these developments, they appear to be part of a long-term plan for China to strengthen its position and apply pressure along the yet un-demarcated border.

This year, a local government chief from a county in Tibet has visited the villages in the Jakarlung valley at least twice to inspect construction projects and check in with residents.

During a visit in April, the official reminded local cadres and residents of their mission.

“(We’re) lacking oxygen but not spirit, enduring hardship without fear, overcoming higher altitudes with an even higher sense of purpose,” he said, quoting a 2020 speech by Xi.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Overall Analysis

  1. Bitcoin moves upwards in the 3rd Nov trading session, facing rejection from a higher level and indicating sideways momentum.  
  2. Ethereum, on the 3rd Nov trading session, synced with Bitcoin and is currently moving near major support levels. 

Bitcoin Chart Analysis 

BTC/USD 15-Minute Chart (Source: TradingView)

In the trading session on October 3, 2024, Bitcoin showed an upside rally in a 15-minute time frame, eventually facing rejection at the $69,600 level.

Currently looking at trends on higher time frames (daily time), Bitcoin is in a bull run, and the price is taking a pause on a higher level, hence creating swings. 

Looking at Bitcoin in a 15 min time frame, we can see price is currently moving in a tight zone, creating a sideways moment. The price has faced strong rejection multiple times, between $69,500 and $69,916.

If talking about the trade opportunities, then scalping trade can be captured in the current market with strict stop loss. Here are a few entry triggers. 

  1. If the price takes support from the swing trendline, then entry can be made based on a strong buying candle with a stop loss below the recent swing and a target of $69,500 and $69,900 based on trailing stop loss. 
  2. If the price breaks the trend line and settles below it, then plan to sell-side entry once the price breaks the $68,667 level with a stop loss above the recent swing high and target to $67,887.

Please note that Bitcoin is currently in the sideways zone; one must use a stick-trailing method. 

Ethereum Chart Analysis 

ETH/USD 15-Minute Chart (Source: TradingView)

During the trading session on October 3, 2024, Ethereum moved upside down and faced rejection at the $2,490 level. Price moment can be clearly seen syncing with Bitcoin; hence, both the major cryptos are in a sideways zone. 

Looking at Ethereum on a daily time frame, we can clearly see that the price has been in the channel for a very long time; hence there are low moments in the price. 

If planning for an entry make sure the price is moving in a strict area impacting risk to reward ratio. Talking about entry triggers, there are a few mentioned below.

  1. If the price takes support from the recent trend line, then entry can be made for the target of $2,490 and stop loss below the previous swing low. Make sure to trail the target, as a price break above the $2,496 level and a successful settlement could lead to higher levels.
  2. If the price breaks the supporting trendline and settles below it, then wait for it to break the $2,450 level, then make an entry for the targets of $2,420 with a stop loss above the previous swing high.

The post Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis: Price Movement & Key Levels appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.