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November 27, 2024

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On November 21, 2024, Citron Capital shorted MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR). What made this confrontation particularly electrifying was the clash between two titans: Citron, a legendary short seller, and MicroStrategy, arguably the strongest stock of 2024.

Why did Citron short MicroStrategy? Citron called its $91 billion valuation a reckless Bitcoin bubble. MSTR began buying Bitcoin in 2020; it currently owns 1.7% of the global Bitcoin supply and some analysts expect the company to own 4% by 2033. Citron viewed MSTR’s Bitcoin hoarding as a leveraged gamble that could implode if Bitcoin falters.

To see the impact of MSTR’s crypto trade, look at the correlation between the stocks and the crypto on a weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF MICROSTRATEGY. The Correlation Coefficient in the bottom panel shows how MSTR strongly correlates with Bitcoin. MSTR has also outperformed the S&P 500 ($SPX).Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stellar rise in MSTR from a low of $43-and-change in January to a high of $543 in November has been anything but smooth and steady. MicroStrategy is a business analytics company that provides exposure to both AI and Bitcoin (due to its heavy accumulation). It’s like two trades in one. StockCharts’s Correlation Coefficient indicator shows how correlated MSTR is to $BTCUSD. You will want to keep an eye on this: if Bitcoin rises or falls, it will likely affect MSTR’s stock price.

You can also see MSTR’s relative performance against the S&P 500 ($SPX). Currently, it’s outperforming the broad index by over 300%. Overvalued and risky? That’s Citron’s take, and you can see the plunging effect of Citron’s thesis as it took action in the market.

Nevertheless, MSTR still ranks within the Top 10 of StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) report, its technical strength holding its measured position despite the big short and the risk it entails.

FIGURE 2. SCTR REPORT ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2024. MSTR is fourth from the top, with a SCTR score of 99.5.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If this remains true, might the stock experience a bounce, attracting prospective bulls to enter positions at perceived discount levels? If so, where? Let’s shift to a daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF MSTR. Note how the swing points correspond cleanly with the Fibonacci Retracement lines.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Drawing Fibonacci Retracement levels from the August low to the November high, you can better contextualize the pullback to see where bullish investors may be looking for entry points. Note that I circled each level to highlight each potential support area.

One place that buyers may be looking for an early bounce is at the swing high point right above $380, which coincides with the Fib 38.2% retracement. While some buyers might have jumped in, that level may be too aggressive an entry as the price is looking to break below it. The next potential support levels are the swing low between $318 and $320, which converges with the Fib 50% line, and, below that, the October swing high near $267, which is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level.

Should any of these points trigger a bounce, check volume and buying pressure as a potential indicator for institutional support. Right now, if you look at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), you can see that sellers are firmly in control of the stock (see green circle). You will want to see that situation reverse, with the CMF line crossing above the zero line.

Your Next Action Steps

While watching these levels, do the following:

  • Add MSTR to your ChartLists. This ensures you can have the chart handy with all key levels when monitoring it.
  • Set a price alert for when the price crosses below $323. Once it crosses below this level, prepare for a potential bounce somewhere between $318 and $320. You could also set a second alert for when the price crosses above $375, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This could be an entry point for a potential upside move.
  • Also, keep an eye on the CMF; if there’s a bounce, you’ll want to see buyers taking control of the market.

This should give you ample time to observe and respond, assessing whether the technical context signals a buy or a wait-and-see. You can also check the fundamental story to see what’s happening with the stock, particularly if the technicals remain fuzzy.

At the Close

MicroStrategy’s meteoric rise in 2024, fueled by its double play on Bitcoin and AI, has made it a magnet for both bulls and skeptics. While Citron’s short position underscores bearish concerns about overvaluation and leverage risk, the stock’s technical strength and correlation with Bitcoin continue to attract bullish attention. Keep an eye on support levels and for any shift between buying/selling momentum. The technical levels above should map out the key areas to watch and key technical events to anticipate.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Cyprium Metals Limited (ASX: CYM, OTC: CYPMF) is pleased to present the Prefeasibility Study (“PFS”) for the Nifty Copper Complex. The PFS confirms the economic viability of large-scale production of copper in concentrate (“Concentrate Project”) through the refurbishment and expansion of Nifty’s brownfield concentrator and accompanying new surface mine. The PFS also confirms economics of producing copper cathode by re-treating Nifty’s Heap Leach Pads 1-6 (“Initial Cathode Project”) which is a subset of oxide opportunities. This PFS supports the first Ore Reserve Estimate (“ORE”) to be published on the Concentrate Project and Initial Cathode Project (collectively referred to as the “Projects”).

Highlights on a combined basis include:

  • $1,129 million pre-tax NPV8 ($756 million after-tax); pre-tax IRR of 28.9% (23.6% after-tax)
  • All major permits currently in hand, to be updated using PFS information
  • Concentrate Project Ore Reserves of 83Mt at 0.90% Cu for 753Kt contained Cu
  • Initial Cathode Project Ore Reserves of 10.6mt at 0.41% Cu for 44Kt contained Cu

“The successful completion of this comprehensive PFS marks a pivotal milestone for Cyprium. This is important, foundational work that we will build on” said Executive Chair Matt Fifield.

“The PFS highlights the long duration and immense profitability of Nifty’s Concentrate Project. With 797,000 tonnes of copper in total reserve supporting more than $3 billion dollars of pre-tax cash flow, Nifty is a large and important copper source and economic engine for Australia,” said Fifield.

“There are few near-term copper development opportunities that present the scale, longevity and positive economics of Nifty’s Concentrate Project, and really none that have the speed and cost advantages of a permitted brownfield site and access to Western Australia’s world-class supply chain,” added Fifield. “The important information in this PFS serves as a strategic foundation for our forward activities as we move towards project execution.”

For a copy of this announcement and a short introductory video please visit Cyprium Metals Investor Hub at https://investorhub.cypriummetals.com/link/drLK0e.

Click here for the full ASX Release

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Newmont (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM), the world’s largest gold miner, is continuing its divestiture program through the sale of its Éléonore mine in Québec to Dhilmar, a private UK-based mining firm, for US$795 million in cash.

Located in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region, Éléonore is a prominent underground gold operation. Since producing its first gold in 2014, the mine has contributed significantly to Newmont’s output, averaging 215,000 ounces annually.

The sale is expected to close in Q1 2025, pending regulatory approvals and other standard closing conditions.

The transaction follows Newmont’s recently announced sale of the Musselwhite gold mine in Ontario to Orla Mining (TSX:OLA,NYSEAMERICAN:ORLA) for US$850 million.

Together, these two deals contribute substantially to Newmont’s efforts to reshape its portfolio — the company has now exceeded its initial target of generating US$2 billion through asset sales.

“Proceeds from this transaction will support Newmont’s comprehensive approach to capital allocation, which includes strengthening our investment-grade balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders,” said Tom Palmer, the company’s president and CEO, in a Monday (November 25) press release.

“We are pleased to be selling this operation to Dhilmar,” he added. “They have a wealth of experience in gold and copper mining and we believe Dhilmar will be excellent stewards of this asset.’

Éléonore, acquired by Newmont as part of its 2019 purchase of Goldcorp, is the second Canadian asset to be sold by Newmont as part of its ongoing divestiture program. The program aims to concentrate Newmont’s resources on its core Tier 1 gold and copper assets — those with long mine lives and the scale to generate sustainable free cash flow.

Dhilmar, the purchaser of Éléonore, is a relatively new player in the global mining industry. Alexander Ramlie, the firm’s CEO, is known for his role in the 2016 acquisition of Indonesia’s Batu Hijau copper-gold mine.

Newmont’s current approach stems from its broader portfolio optimization strategy, initiated after its acquisition of Newcrest Mining in 2023. The company initially said it was aiming to generate US$2 billion through asset sales to improve its balance sheet, increase shareholder returns and allocate capital efficiently.

Both the Musselwhite and Éléonore sales alone have added US$1.65 billion to Newmont’s divestiture proceeds.

Combined with other completed and planned asset sales, the company has raised approximately US$3.6 billion from its optimization program, significantly surpassing its original target.

In addition to Éléonore and Musselwhite, Newmont has identified other assets for potential sale, including its Porcupine mine and Coffee project in Canada, as well as its Cripple Creek & Victor mine in the US.

This strategy coincides with a broader industry trend of large mining firms divesting smaller, less profitable or more geographically dispersed assets to focus on core projects. Newmont’s approach is consistent with the strategy of prioritizing high-margin, scalable operations that promise consistent cashflow over long periods.

Companies like Dhilmar and Orla are taking advantage of these sales to expand their own portfolios.

Orla’s acquisition of the Musselwhite mine, for example, is expected to more than double its gold production, underscoring the opportunities presented by divestitures for mid-tier and private mining firms.

The gold price, which has remained strong due to global economic uncertainty, continues to play a significant role in shaping these transactions. A stable or rising price increases the attractiveness of gold assets, providing an opportune time for companies like Newmont to sell non-core properties at favorable valuations.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF) said on Monday (November 25) that it has entered into definitive agreements to sell its entire steelmaking coal business in Australia to Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU).

The portfolio primarily consists of an 88 percent interest in the Moranbah North joint venture, a 70 percent interest in the Capcoal joint venture and an 86.36 percent interest in the Roper Creek joint venture.

It also includes a 51 percent stake in the Dawson joint venture, the Dawson South joint venture, the Dawson South Exploration joint venture and the Theodore South joint venture, plus 50 percent of the Moranbah South joint venture.

“(This) sale is another important step towards delivering the strategy that we set out in May to create a world-class copper, premium iron ore and crop nutrients business,” said Anglo Chief Executive Duncan Wanblad.

The company said it will generate up to US$4.9 billion in aggregate gross cash proceedsfrom the Peabody transaction, along with the sale of its interest in Jellinbah Group to Zashvin for approximately US$1.1 billion.

The Peabody deal will amount to up to US$3.78 billion for Anglo, with upfront cash consideration of US$2.05 billion at completion. Anglo will also receive deferred cash consideration of US$725 million four annual installments.

In addition, the agreement covers the potential for up to US$550 million in a price-linked earnout, and contingent cash consideration of US$450 million connected to the reopening of the Grosvenor mine.

“We’re pleased to acquire these world-class assets from Anglo American, a company that shares our strong values of safety, sustainability and social license to operate,” commented Peabody President and CEO Jim Grech.

“We look forward to integrating these assets, teaming up with their highly skilled workforce, and aligning with our new mine joint venture partners to create long-term value,’ he added.

The transaction between Anglo and Peabody is subject to certain conditions, such as customary competition and regulatory clearances and pre-emption arrangements. Peabody has agreed to pay a US$75 million deposit on signing, which Anglo is entitled to keep should the sale be terminated under limited circumstances.

Anglo is in the midst of a portfolio transformation, and said that all transactions related to these changes are in place. The demerger of Anglo American Platinum (OTC Pink:AGPPF,JSE:AMS) is expected by mid-2025.

Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

He sees the yellow metal reaching US$3,800 to US$5,700 per ounce during this cycle.

“Post-election we had a selloff, which I think was wonderful and needed and healthy. These are buying opportunities, this is not the end of the bull market — not even close. None of the factors suggesting that are firing right now,” he said.

Looking at silver, he said the charts show a 45 year cup-and-handle formation, which is highly bullish.

‘We’ve now broken out of that long cup and handle. I’m not a technician, (but) friends who are suggest that given the boundaries of that cup and handle we’re looking at about US$90 (per ounce) for silver,’ he said.

“I think that is very doable, but it’s probably going to be mostly late stage.’

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

A police officer who fatally shocked a 95-year-old woman with a Taser in an Australian nursing home has been found guilty of manslaughter after the jury found that the great-grandmother, who was holding a knife, did not pose an “imminent” threat.

Senior Constable Kristian White was one of two police officers called in May last year to Yallambee Lodge, a nursing home in regional New South Wales, when staff asked for help with a resident who was holding two knives as she pushed a mobility walker around the facility.

Clare Nowland – who had dementia – had refused her carers’ requests to return to her room and threw a knife at a staff member that fell on the floor before they dialed emergency services, according to court documents.

The court heard she had been cornered in an office by police and paramedics and had refused to put down a steak knife when White deployed his Taser.

The jury deliberated for days before returning a verdict of guilty to one charge of manslaughter against White for breaching his duty of care to Nowland and engaging in an unlawful and dangerous act.

White had told the court he believed that a “violent confrontation was imminent” – the condition for firing a Taser under standard operating procedures in New South Wales. The rules state that a Taser may only be used against elderly people in “exceptional circumstances.”

The prosecution had argued that White’s use of the Taser was “utterly unnecessary” and an excessive use of force against a frail, elderly woman. After she was shocked with the device, Nowland fell backwards, hitting her head. She died a week later in hospital.

Nowland’s family released a statement after the guilty verdict, thanking the judge, jury and prosecutors, and saying it would take “some time to come to terms with the jury’s confirmation that Clare’s death at the hands of a serving NSW police officer was a criminal and unjustified act.”

How the incident unfolded

Closed-circuit video played to the jury on Monday showed how the incident unfolded in the administrative building of the home around 5 a.m. on May 17, 2023.

In the witness box, White was asked to explain what was going through his mind as he and his partner approached Nowland, who was found by carers sitting in a small office. She was wearing pajamas and had a walking frame nearby for support.

Asked for his first impressions of Nowland, White agreed that she was elderly, but took issue with the suggestion she may have been frail.

“Bit of a subjective question,” White said. When asked again, he said, “not that frail, no.”

While White agreed that Nowland was small in stature, when asked if she was weak, he said he “wouldn’t be able to give an answer.”

On the video, White can be heard repeatedly asking Nowland to put the knife on the table. After she refused and stood up, with one hand on the walker, White pulled out his Taser.

“You see this?” White asked her. “This is a Taser. Drop it now,” he said, referring to the knife. Then after a few more appeals, he warned her “you’re gonna get tased.”

After more warnings, White can be heard saying, “Nah, bugger it” and deployed the Taser.

The court heard White had the Taser pointed at Nowland, its light shining in her eyes, for one minute before he used it.

Asked what he meant by “Nah, bugger it,” and if it was a sign he was “fed up” and had abandoned attempts to resolve the issue, he disagreed.

“I was going to be firing a Taser at a 95-year-old. I felt it was my only option at the time to ensure a safe resolution of the incident,” he said.

“I completely understand it was going to cause her some sort of, you know, injury and pain, but I felt that the risk had elevated to the point that, you know, it required a resolution, and it’s not our job to shy away from these types of incidents,” White said.

“I was not going to essentially gamble on the risk of having her out in the corridor,” he added.

In summing up, Crown Prosecutor Brett Hatfield pointed to contradictions in White’s testimony as he tried to justify his actions in deploying the Taser.

“Answers were malleable and changing, even within a few questions,” he said, while also describing some of White’s responses as “evasive and unpersuasive.”

“This was not a mere breach of the standard of care,” said Hatfield. “This was such an utterly unnecessary and obviously excessive use of force on Mrs. Nowland that it warrants punishment for manslaughter,” he said.

White was suspended from the NSW Police Service after the incident.

He will be sentenced at a later date.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

North Korea is expanding a weapons plant that manufactures missiles used by Russia against Ukraine, according to new research from a US-based think tank.

The facility produces both KN-23 missiles (Hwasong-11A) and KN-24 missiles (Hwasong-11B), according to researchers at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.

Located in the country’s second-largest city, Hamhung, the factory has been visited several times by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, with North Korean state media previously touting its mass-production of tactical missiles.

Ukraine has been hit by a recent surge in Russian ballistic missile attacks, about a third of which used North Korean weapons, according to Ukrainian military officials.

Moscow and Pyongyang have also deepened their military ties to a level unseen since the Cold War, including agreeing to a mutual defense pact earlier this year and sending North Korean troops to help fight against Ukraine according to Western and South Korean officials.

Now, new satellite images indicate North Korea is expanding the Hamhung facility and building what appears to be a second building for the final assembly of missiles, as well as additional housing for workers.

Lair said researchers have seen a lot of expansion at the facility, which is called the ‘February 11 plant’ by North Korean authorities, in the last few years alone. The size of the plant started to increase in 2020, and it has since undergone routine improvements like repairing old buildings and replacing roofs, he said.

But the new building, likely intended for missile assembly, indicates “that they’re not just improving an element of the production line, but rather, they’re trying to expand it.”

“Just outside the security perimeter of the factory, we see what appear to be new apartment buildings going up,” he said. “We can see the foundations in satellite imagery.”

The new missile assembly building is roughly 60% to 70% as large as the original building, Lair estimates.

State media footage from KCNA shows Kim Jong Un touring the plant in August 2023, showing off tail kits being added to Hwasong-11 class missiles, nozzles being fitted and nose cones capping off the short-range ballistic missiles, according to researchers. But that footage has since been removed from state media websites.

The factory is part of the Ryongsong Machine Complex, which also manufactures goods like multiple rocket launcher shells for the North Korean military, Lair said.

Attacks on Ukraine with KN-23 missiles

Russia has fired about 60 North Korean KN-23 missiles (Hwasong-11A) at Ukraine this year.

Crucial components used in the missiles are produced by nine Western manufacturers, including companies based in the United States, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, according to a recent report by Ukraine’s Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), a civil society organization.

Moscow and Pyongyang have both previously denied that North Korea has exported weapons to Russia, despite significant evidence of such transfers. Meanwhile, observers have raised concerns that Moscow may be violating international sanctions to aid Pyongyang’s development of its military satellite program.

In June, the two autocratic nations signed a new landmark defense pact, pledging to North use all available means to provide immediate military assistance in the event the other is attacked.

Western officials have also warned that thousands of North Korean troops have joined Moscow’s forces in its attempt to seize back the Kursk region that was taken by Kyiv’s military in a surprise offensive earlier this year.

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Eight staff members of a backpacker hostel in Laos have been detained by local authorities as they investigate the deaths of six foreign tourists from suspected methanol poisoning, according to state-affiliated media in the Southeast Asian country.

The deaths of two Australian teenagers, a British woman, an American man and two Danish women – and reports of others taken ill – prompted warnings last week from several Western nations about the potentially fatal consequences of drinking tainted alcohol in Laos.

The employees of the Nana Backpacker Hostel in the northern town of Vang Vieng, all Vietnamese nationals aged between 23 and 44, were arrested Monday by local police, state-affiliated newspaper the Laotian Times reported.

Part of the investigation has focused on reports the tourists were offered free shots of alcohol at the hostel, where at least five of those who died had stayed.

The hostel manager and owner, who are also Vietnamese, were previously detained for questioning by police, according to the Associated Press. The manager had earlier said the two Australian women joined more than 100 guests for free shots at the hostel before leaving for a night out, but he denied that other guests had reported any issue, AP reported.

The victims’ respective governments have confirmed their nationalities and deaths, but many details of the suspected mass poisoning remain unclear, frustrating families and fellow travelers trying to piece together what happened in Vang Vieng.

A statement from the official Lao News Agency (KPL) Friday reported that “the consumption of tainted alcoholic beverages” was the suspected cause of the deaths. But Laos authorities have not given any indication of where and how tainted alcohol might have got into the supply chain.

Travelers conduct own investigation

Meanwhile, the victims’ families are grappling with the abrupt loss of their loved ones.

The bodies of 19-year-old best friends Holly Bowles and Bianca Jones were returned to Australia on Tuesday night. Speaking to reporters at Melbourne airport, their fathers thanked supporters and praised efforts from the Australian government, according to Nine News.

But Mark Jones said the families were still no closer to getting answers about how their daughters had died, Nine News reported.

“We want to grieve. We miss our daughters desperately,” Jones said, after news broke of the arrests in Vang Vieng. “I was happy to hear that there’s been some movement over in Laos … I would continue to urge the Laos government to continue to pursue whomever.”

Methanol is an alcohol chemical commonly used in industrial solvents, cleaning products and fuel, though it can be added to alcoholic drinks either inadvertently through traditional brewing methods or deliberately – usually in the pursuit of profit.

In recent decades, Vang Vieng had earned a notorious reputation as a hedonistic party center where travelers could easily access cheap alcohol and illicit drugs.

But in 2012, the government ordered a crackdown following a string of fatal accidents linked to poor safety standards and a culture of excess along the river that flows through the town, reinventing Vang Vieng as more of an eco-paradise and adventure travel hub.

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