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November 10, 2024

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The markets continued to stay tentative over the past five days while continuing to trade with a weak undertone. The Nifty digested the reaction to the US election outcome. There were two days of a strong technical rebound; this was sold into subsequently which kept Nifty in a broadly defined range. The trading range was wider; the Nifty oscillated in a 721-point range. Volatility cooled off; the India VIX declined by 6.95% to 14.47 through the week. Following a ranged trade with a weak underlying bias, the headline index closed with a net weekly loss of (-156.15) points or (-0.64%).

The markets are not out of the woods as yet from a technical perspective. The Nifty has violated the 20-week MA which currently stands at 24775. This level also coincides with an extended trendline which initially acted as a support but now acts as a resistance. Below this point, there are other several resistance levels as well. The 100-day MA is placed at 24709 and a short-term 20-day MA is placed at 24486. All these combined, the Nifty has created a 250-point resistance zone between 24500-24750 levels. This would mean that all technical rebounds will start facing turbulence the moment the index this zone. The resistance levels have been dragged lower. On the downside, major pattern support exists at 23800; if this is violated, it will make the markets weaker than what they are today. This keeps the Nifty in a broad, but well-defined trading zone.

Monday is likely to see a quiet start to the week. The levels of 24300 and 24485 are likely to act as probable resistance points for Nifty. The supports come in at 23960 and 23800 levels. The trading range is likely to stay wider than usual.

The weekly RSI stands at 49.50; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and stays below its signal line.

The pattern analysis of the weekly charts suggests that the Nifty remains in a corrective downward trajectory. The recent downward move has also dragged the resistance levels lower for the Index. Presently, the markets have multiple resistance levels nestled in the zone of 24500-24750. With the immediate pattern support existing at 23800, the Nifty remains in this wide but well-defined trading zone.

All and all, the markets are likely to see intermittent technical rebounds over the coming days. However, it would be important to be mindful of the fact that a sustained rally is unlikely so long as Nifty does not move past the 24500-24750 zone. Until this zone is taken out, Nifty is unlikely to see any runaway rally. Therefore, during all such technical rebounds, as and when they occur, it would be crucially important to mindfully protect the gains at higher levels. Rather than giving such rebounds a mindless chase, it would be necessary to vigilantly guard positions at higher levels. The markets remain susceptible to selling pressure at higher levels. A cautious outlook is advised for the coming week.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Financial Services index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The Nifty IT, Services Sector, and the Pharma indices are also inside the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to continue to relatively outperform the broader Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty Consumption index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. Besides this, the FMCG and the MidCap 100 indices are also inside the weakening quadrant and may continue giving up on their relative performance.

The Nifty Auto, Commodities, Energy, Media, Infrastructure, Realty, and PSE indices are inside the lagging quadrant. These groups may relatively underperform the broader markets.

The PSU Bank Index has rolled inside the improving quadrant. The Nifty Metal and the Nifty Bank Index are also inside the improving quadrant. They may continue bettering their relative performance against the broader markets.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Enjoying these HUGE rallies is much easier when you have confidence the stock market is in a secular bull market and heading higher. It also helps when you enter a period of historical strength – the absolute best strength that we see anytime throughout the calendar year. This combination can be extremely powerful and we saw that combo result in surging U.S. equity prices last week. If we look at a daily RRG that includes our major indices and all sectors, you’ll see where the relative strength was:

I highlighted the relationship between consumer discretionary (XLY) and consumer staples (XLP) and you can see rather clearly the direction that each was headed on a relative basis last week. I’ll get to the significance of that in just a second, but I want to first highlight ALL of the areas in the leading and weakening quadrants. Remember, even those stocks in the weakening quadrant show relative strength. Leaders will sometimes pause in this quadrant before returning to the leading quadrant. This RRG highlights the areas of strength over the past few days (since Election Day):

If you’re a momentum trader, the above RRG is your cheat sheet.

There are plenty of trading strategies and scans to uncover solid opportunities. One very simple scan to consider is:

This is a scan of small and mid cap industrials stocks with average volume recently over 200,000 shares and excellent relative strength, at least based on StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) scores.

This scan returned 46 stocks, which is quite manageable, in my opinion. Here are the 10 returned having the highest SCTR scores:

These charts all look great, but many are very extended and overbought currently. I’d prefer keeping them on a Watch List and waiting for a pullback to perhaps rising 20-day EMAs before entering. Instead of buying companies with extended charts, here’s one that just made a key breakout:

ERJ is one of the best stocks in its industry group – aerospace ($DJUSAS). I believe it’s important to stick with industry leaders while their relative strength is in an uptrend. Once that reverses, it’s time to find new leaders.

We’ve been planning for this type of rotation to small caps, mid caps, financials, and industrials, and our two key portfolios, Model and Aggressive, illustrate beautifully the difference it makes when you’re positioned perfectly:

Our current quarter runs from August 19th through November 19th. We “draft” equal-weighted stocks in each portfolio every 90 days, which we’ll be doing again in a little over a week. Our Model Portfolio has TRIPLED the S&P 500 over the past 3 months and more than doubled the S&P 500 over the past 6 years. The Aggressive Portfolio, which typically invests in small and mid cap stocks, has absolutely exploded higher this quarter as these asset classes have become preferred groups. It’s on the verge of quadrupling the S&P 500 return. 25% return in a quarter goes a LONG way in helping you meet your financial goals.

Currently, the new leaders are as I spelled out earlier. You MUST take advantage of these opportunities when they present themselves. Next Saturday, November 16th, at 11:00am ET, I’m hosting a 100% FREE webinar, “Capitalizing on Small Cap and Mid Cap Strength”. CLICK HERE to register NOW and save your seat. Seating will be limited, so don’t miss out!

Happy trading!

Qatar, which has long hosted Hamas’ political office in Doha, has alongside Egypt served as an intermediary for the two sides, which do not officially maintain direct contact.

Except for a brief flurry of activity last month, there have been no real negotiations since six Israeli hostages were executed by Hamas and discovered in a Gaza tunnel at the end of August. During a temporary ceasefire mediated by Qatar and Egypt last November, Hamas released 105 hostages and Israel released 240 Palestinian prisoners.

Hamas has insisted that any agreement with Israel must lead to a permanent end to the war in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused that demand. In July he effectively spiked a draft hostage and ceasefire deal by introducing a raft of new, 11th-hour demands.

There are 101 hostages still held in Gaza. Israel’s military campaign, launched in response to Hamas’ October 7 attack, has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health; the UN reported that 70% of the fatalities in the first six months of the conflict were women and children.

The Israeli minister of economy, Nir Barkat, appeared to offer the first official Israeli reaction to the move, saying on X that “Qatar was never a mediator, but Hamas’ defender, the one to fund and protect the terrorist organization.” Netanyahu for years backed payments to Hamas through Qatar, in order to divide Palestinian politics and – detractors allege – prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.

It is not the first time the Qatari government has expressed frustration. in April, Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said that Qatar’s efforts were being misused for “narrow political interests” by some involved in the conflict, “which required the state of Qatar to conduct a comprehensive evaluation” of its role.

The Qatari government has now told the Biden administration that it is willing to restart its mediation efforts “when both sides reach an impasse and demonstrate a sincere willingness to return to the negotiating table with the objective of putting an end to the war and the suffering of civilians.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Family members of a 31-year-old American tourist who was killed while on vacation in Hungary’s capital mourned their loss while a 37-year-old suspect was in custody Saturday.

The victim, Mackenzie Michalski from Portland, Oregon, was reported missing on Nov. 5 after she was last seen at a nightclub in central Budapest.

Police launched a missing person investigation and reviewed security footage from local nightclubs where they observed Michalski with a man later identified as the suspect in several of the clubs the night of her disappearance.

The man was detained on Nov. 7 and questioned by police, and later allegedly confessed to the killing.

After Michalski’s disappearance, her family and friends had launched an effort to find her, starting a Facebook group to gather tips on her whereabouts. Her parents traveled to Hungary to assist in the search, but while en route learned that she had been killed.

At a candlelight vigil in Budapest on Saturday night, the victim’s father, Bill Michalski, told The Associated Press that he was “still overcome with emotion” at the death of his daughter.

“There was no reason for this to happen,” he said. “I’m still trying to wrap my arms around what happened … I don’t know that I ever will.”

Police detained the suspect, an Irish citizen, on the evening of Nov. 7. Investigators said that Michalski and the suspect had met at a nightclub and danced before leaving for the man’s rented apartment. Police alleged the man killed Michalski while they were engaged in an “intimate encounter.”

Police alleged the suspect confessed to the killing, but said it had been an accident. Police said that he had attempted to cover up his crime by cleaning the apartment and hiding Michalski’s body in a wardrobe before purchasing a suitcase and placing her body inside.

Allegedly, he then rented a car and drove to Lake Balaton, around 90 miles (150 kilometers) southwest of Budapest, where he disposed of the body in a wooden area outside the town of Szigliget.

Video released by police showed the suspect guiding authorities to the location of the body. Police said the suspect had made internet searches before being apprehended on how to dispose of a body, police procedures in missing person cases, whether pigs really eat dead bodies, and the presence of wild boars in the Lake Balaton area.

They said he had also made an internet search inquiring on the competence of Budapest police.

Crime scene photographs released by police showed a rolling suitcase, several articles of clothing including a pair of fleece-lined boots, and a small handbag next to a credit card bearing Michalski’s name.

According to a post by an administrator of a Facebook group called “Find Mackenzie Michalski,” which was created on Nov. 7, Michalski, who went by “Kenzie,” was a nurse practitioner who “will forever be remembered as a beautiful and compassionate young woman.”

At the candlelight vigil in Budapest on Saturday, Michalski’s father gave brief comments to those who had gathered, and was wearing a baseball cap he said he had received as a gift from his daughter.

Michalski had visited Budapest before, and called it her “happy place,” her father told the AP.

“The history, she just loved it and she was just so relaxed here,” he said. “This was her city.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Catherine, Princess of Wales, joined other members of Britain’s royal family at a Remembrance Day event in London on Saturday – the latest public appearance by the princess since she underwent preventive treatment for cancer earlier this year.

Catherine, also known as Kate, was shown in a photograph attending the Festival of Remembrance at the Royal Albert Hall, along with King Charles and her husband, Prince William.

The festival is an annual commemorative concert which honors all those who have lost their lives in conflict.

Queen Camilla was originally set to attend but pulled out due to a chest infection, Buckingham Palace said on Saturday.

Kate, 42, announced that she had completed chemotherapy in September but cautioned that the road to recovery was still long. She said she would undertake more public engagements when possible as she continues to recover.

In October, she made her first public appearance since her cancer treatment to meet the bereaved families of three children killed in a knife attack in Southport, northwest England.

Kate is also set to attend a Remembrance Day service on Sunday, Buckingham Palace said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Protesters and police clashed in the streets of Valencia in eastern Spain on Saturday, as tens of thousands of people marched to demand the regional president resign over his response to floods that killed more than 220 people.

Near Valencia’s City Hall Square, police used batons and shields to push back an angry crowd who at times threw chairs and other objects at the officers, video footage showed. Elsewhere in the city several buildings were vandalized, according to the Valencia mayor, though there have been no reports of serious injuries.

Local media – citing government information – reported an estimated 130,000 people took part in the protest.

The demonstrations started around 6 p.m. local time, when thousands of people – many of them carrying placards and chanting “killers!” – took to the streets to demand the resignation of Valencia’s regional president Carlos Mazón over what critics say was too slow a response to what was the worst natural disaster the region has seen in decades.

The floods, which began in late October, saw a year’s worth of rain dumped on the region in less than 8 hours, which came rushing down the rivers and tributaries toward the Mediterranean sea, picking up cars and destroying bridges along the way.

“The regional government didn’t warn on time for the flooding, didn’t respond on time,” a protester told Reuters.

“So we want them to quit and to let the new government take over the responsibility to clean up the mess that they left.”

Another protester said, “The only thing I want to say is that this abandonment and institutional negligence must be held accountable.”

Mazón has claimed he wasn’t warned early enough about the severity of the rain by central authorities, while the Spanish government says it tried calling Mazón at least four times before being able to reach him.

The regional president, who according to some Spanish media reports was at a restaurant hours into the floods, has denied missing any calls prior to the floods turning catastrophic.

Meanwhile, the Spanish government and local agencies continue to search for over 70 people who remain missing.

More than 8,400 soldiers are taking part in the efforts, according to the Spanish government, along with divers searching near Valencia’s shore.

Valencia’s mayor María José Catalá took to X following Saturday’s protests to urge calm.

“With absolute respect to everyone, I consider that confrontation and vandalism will never be the solution,” she wrote.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Ukraine has launched its largest attack on Moscow since the start of the war, disrupting flights at two airports in the Russian capital.

A total of 34 drones were launched in the direction of Moscow, the Russian Ministry of Defense said. Russia’s air defenses shot down all of the drones over the Moscow region between 7 a.m. and 10 a.m. on Sunday morning, according to the Russian MOD.

The UAVs were shot down over the Moscow regions of Ramenskoye, Kolomna and Domodedovo, Andrey Vorobyov, governor of Moscow region, said.

Shrapnel from the falling drones caused two houses in Ramenskoye to catch fire. A woman, 52, was injured by the shrapnel and taken to hospital with “burns to her face, neck and hands,” Vorobyov said, adding that the woman is in intensive care.

Sunday’s attack forced the “temporary restrictions” of flights on Domodedovo and Zhukovsky, two airports serving the Moscow region, from just after 8 a.m. local time, Russian state media agency TASS reported, citing Russia’s federal air transport agency. Restrictions were lifted at just after 10 a.m. local time.

The previous largest drone attack on Moscow was in September, when Russia said it destroyed at least 20 Ukrainian attack drones. In that attack, at least one person was killed near Moscow, Russian authorities said. Three of Moscow’s four airports were closed for more than six hours and almost 50 flights were diverted.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The S&P 500 proved to have a track record of setting records, this time by a 0.8% increase, made possible by the willingness to boost the stock prices and major indexes of the Federal Reserve. The Nasdaq surged 1.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index barely moved from its Wednesday rally, staying nearly equal to its previous value.

The Fed stabilised the economy by trimming rates by 25 basis points, a move market participants expected following September’s larger 50 basis point cut. Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that the Fed relies on data to guide its decisions and may adjust policy up or down based on economic results.

Strong Growth Amid Fed’s Active Rate Cuts

Although the Fed is using a little different language on inflation, replacing “further progress” with “progress” alone still, analysts were imperceptible.

Goldman Sachs considered the wording change as a ratification of the fact that the rate-slashing process is underway rather than as a signal of a lack of confidence. Inflation is still a bit above the Fed’s 2% target, albeit it did some small cooling in September.

Analysts forecast that the S&P 500 will perform better in the future and that fiscal policies will serve as a catalyst for the creation of a better business climate. Evercore ISI’s forecast says that the index may peak by me-de next year based on the fact of rumours and investors’ optimism around the business-friendly environment, including low taxes and lessening of regulations in the current administration.

Powell further commented on the recent election, which he said would not affect Fed policy in the short term. The monetary authority focuses on economic factors rather than political matters. Overall, the S&P 500 leans toward a possible rise as market sentiment improves with policy easing and positive business forecasts.

S&P 500 Index Chart Technical Analysis

SP/USD 15-Minute Chart (Source: TradingView)

The chart displays a 15-minute snapshot of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the previous days. Nevertheless, the index, which plummeted in the period of October 30 to the start of November, witnessed a major upturn around November 5. The new increase brought about a sharp upward dynamic by the consecutive green candlesticks which represented buying pressure that made the price climb to a recent high point of 5,983.84.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears at the lower end of the chart and actively demonstrates the upward trend. Its values have grown significantly, reaching 70, indicating that the index is overbought. This overbought measurement is usually a red flag, showing the possibility that the index will pull back or consolidate near-term as sellers who brought the stock to this high level may exit the market.

Traders should observe if the index will be centred at the current level or if it will fall back to $5,900 or lower support zones.

All in all, although the trend is still going up, it is important to be cautious because of the overbought RSI and the recent high test.

Take your profits on your current positions or put close-stop losses on your profits, as the fallback maybe soon. People entering should be patient and wait for favourable support at the 5,900 level to have a better entry point.

The post S&P 500 Hits Record as Fed Cuts Rates appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

Overall Analysis

  • Oil turned highly volatile continuously on the 2nd trading session. Price action indicates an uptrend.
  • Natural Gas fell sharply, going -4% in a single day. High volatility and a tight zone continue.

Oil Chart Analysis

Oil/USD 15-Minute Chart (Source: TradingView)

On the 7th November 2024 trading session, oil can be seen highly volatile on the 2nd consecutive trading session, where the price went down near the supporting trendline and sharply reversed, breaking the 6th Nov day high of 72.63. Currently, the price is moving upwards in an uptrend channel but with high volatility.

On a daily time frame, the price is facing resistance from the 72.40 level, which has been a resistance for a long time. Closing the price above this level on the daily time frame will trigger a sharp rally towards the upside.

Looking at the price on a 15 min time frame, the price can be seen moving upwards in a channel, also creating an ascending triangle pattern. Oil is currently highly volatile, so traders should consider trading it only when it nears support or resistance levels.

There are multiple entry triggers one can follow for creating an entry.

  • Oil is currently testing its long-term support trendline. If the price fails to break it and creates a reversal candle, buyers can consider making an entry with a stop loss placed below the previous swing low and a target of 72.60.
  • If the price breaks the long-term supporting trendline and the candle successfully closes below the 70.66 level, then sellers may consider entering the trade with a stop loss placed above the previous swing high and a target of 60.86.
  • A selling side entry can be planned if the price creates a rejection zone between the 72.63 and 72.40 levels, with a stop loss placed above the previous swing high and a target till the supporting trendline.

Natural Gas Chart Analysis

Gas/USD 15-Minute Chart (Source: TradingView)

On the 7th November 2024 trading session, Natural Gas gave a sideways opening. It then continued moving upwards, reaching a high of 2.8540. However, it sold off sharply, dropping to the 2.7630 level and marking a -4% fall. Natural Gas is moving in a peanut pattern with high volatility in it.

On a daily time frame, Natural Gas has made a double bottom-like structure, but the price has taken a halt for the last 4 trading sessions, which is currently very far from the pattern’s neckline.

The peanut pattern is forming on a 15 min time frame, and the price is respecting the levels. High volatility can be seen in the instrument. Planning entry based on support and resistance is safe in the current market.

Entry Triggers:

  • If the price faces rejection from a descending resistance trendline, sellers may enter. They can set a stop loss above the previous swing highs and aim for a target at the supporting trendline.
  • If the price settles above the descending resistance trendline, buyers may plan an entry. They should place a stop loss below the previous swing low and set a target at the 2.879 and 2.9010 levels.

The post Oil and Natural Gas Analysis: High Volatility & Trends appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.