When the United States votes for a new president, the outcome reverberates far beyond its borders.
When Trump was first elected in 2016, Russian politicians literally popped champagne corks.
Those were simpler times. Russia had been accused of hacking into the Democratic National Committee several months earlier. Trump was busy dismissing those allegations and resolutely refusing to criticize Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin also had serious historical beef with Trump’s rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, for what he saw as her role in fomenting protests in Russia in 2011. For Russia it was Trump: good, Clinton: bad.
This time, the fog of an almost three-year-old war has somewhat clouded the picture.
In February, Putin wryly claimed he would prefer Joe Biden to win because he was more “predictable.” There may have been more than just trolling here. Despite Trump’s toughening rhetoric towards Ukraine, and his running mate’s JD Vance’s open opposition to sending more US military aid to Kyiv as it battles Russia’s invasion, it’s not yet clear if Trump would, or could, cut the purse strings for Ukraine.
“Trump has one useful quality for us: as a businessman through and through he is dead against spending money on various hangers-on and lackeys, on dumb little allies, bad charitable projects and gluttonous international organizations,” wrote former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now a senior security official, on his Telegram channel Wednesday, adding that Ukraine is “one of those.”
“The question is, how much will they force Trump to give to the war. He is stubborn, but the system is stronger,” he said, a clear reference to the vital role the US Congress plays in funding Ukraine. Down-ballot races also matter in Moscow.
In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of RT and now top Kremlin propagandist, wrote simply: “Trump won. Go to sleep, team.” Eight years ago, she was posting about driving through Moscow with an American flag in her car window.
The Kremlin also kept it professional, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov noting only that Trump had “expressed his peaceful intentions on the international stage and his desire to end the ongoing policies of extending old wars,” but that in terms of next steps, “we will see after January,” when he takes office.
Just minutes after Trump had himself declared victory, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued gushing congratulations, calling the US election result “history’s greatest comeback.”
“Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America,” Netanyahu said on X.
Ahead of the vote, opinion polls indicated Israelis overwhelmingly favored another Trump presidency.
The Biden administration – including Vice President Kamala Harris – is seen here as having sought to restrain Israel’s tough military response in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran in the aftermath of the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel in October last year.
Trump’s presidency, on the other hand, is remembered for a series of pro-Israel moves, like relocating the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and taking a tough stance on Iran.
From a second Trump term in the White House, Israel may be hoping for even more full-throated US support for its military plans.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, Trump’s election victory has been greeted with trepidation.
A spokesman for the Iranian state said a Trump presidency will make “no significant difference” to them. But amid a spiraling confrontation with Israel, which said it had carried out unprecedented airstrikes on Iranian missile production facilities and air defenses last month, the possibility of even firmer US support for Israel is likely to be a major concern for Tehran.
Hamas, the Iran-backed Palestinian militant group still holding a large number of Israeli citizens hostage in Gaza, has called for an immediate end to America’s “blind support for Israel and its fascist government.”
Europe: Wary leaders face prospect of higher security costs and NATO funding questions
In Ukraine, where the rubber meets the road in the coming friction between Europe and President-elect Trump, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock tried to strike a conciliatory tone, saying: “Germany will also be a close and reliable ally for the future American government. That is our offer.”
But like all the statements of support coming from European leaders early Wednesday, the offer belies deep concerns that Trump doesn’t care what his allies think.
On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine “in a day,” raising fears among NATO allies he’ll reward Putin’s illegal invasion and rampant aggression with territorial gains that will whet the Russian dictator’s appetite for further military conquests, potentially inside NATO’s borders.
The European pitch to Trump not to throw Ukraine under Putin’s nationalist drive to steamroller former Soviet states into submission is undoubtedly going to be heated. As Baerbock says: “As in any good partnership: where there are unquestionable political differences, an honest and, above all, intensive exchange is more important than ever.”
That exchange, in part, will likely focus around Trump’s not unreasonable fixation that Europe should pay for its own security, rather than expect the United States to bail it out.
There will undoubtedly be reminders that of the $190 billion in economic and military aid the European Union and United Kingdom give to Ukraine, $29 billion is spent on buying American weapons for the Ukrainians. In short, the US gains too.
The new NATO Secretary General, former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, appears to be taking a leaf from his predecessor Jens Stoltenberg’s book on managing Trump, playing to his ego as he congratulated the soon-to-be-leader of the most powerful partner in the now 32-nation alliance by saying “his leadership will again be key to keeping our alliance stronger.”
Careful supplication might help keep the alliance alive; it worked for Stoltenberg. But Zelensky’s chances of keeping Ukraine whole and not losing any territory in a Trump-hastened deal with Putin to end the war may be receding, leaving him clutching at straws.
Zelensky, like the others playing to Trump’s vanity through praise, said: “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.”
Baerbock, whose own government is at risk of breaking apart under huge economic pressure, is already pragmatic about the political, diplomatic, and economic uncertainties a Trump victory brings, saying: “Europeans will now have to assume even more responsibility for security policy.”
In 2020, Chinese leader Xi Jinping didn’t congratulate Biden until more than two weeks after the Democratic candidate was projected the winner of the US presidential election. Xi likely won’t wait that long this time around – and many of his underlings had been mentally prepared for a Trump victory for months as they watched the race with a mixture of bewilderment and growing anxiety.
Publicly, throughout the campaign, Chinese officials and state media had been flooding the public with a narrative of Washington’s “bipartisan consensus” to contain and suppress China’s rise – in other words, “both candidates are equally bad.” In a country known for its ever-tighter media control, this messaging sinks deep in many people’s minds – weighed down by a sluggish economy – along with a picture painted for them highlighting political polarization and violence in the US, in stark contrast to that of unity and stability under Xi’s iron grip.
For those whose life or work is more intertwined with the US, though, a second Trump term appears to be a lot more unsettling. One of the oft-heard talking points from Beijing is that Trump’s “America First” approach benefits China strategically – on issues ranging from Taiwan to the South China Sea – compared to a united front with US allies and partners targeting China advocated by Biden and Harris.
However, Trump’s trademark unpredictability is the one trait that kept many Chinese officials awake at night and still haunts them, especially in a place where certainty in government and policy is almost a given under one-party rule. Some officials, in private, had been fretting over the prospect of disruption or even total halt to just-resumed US-China talks – and its consequences for both sides and the world – on subjects that include economic and military affairs, fentanyl crackdown and climate change.
Trump’s campaign rhetoric on new tariffs and the dark cloud over immigration have jolted Chinese exporters and students. And his pending White House return has even hit home for China-based foreign journalists, who still remember Trump’s decision to kick out numerous Chinese state media journalists in the US, ushering in a round of tit-for-tat that has now left only two dozen or so American reporters in China to cover this superpower of 1.4 billion people.
Taiwan: Defense and economic concerns dominate
Election observers in Asia view Trump’s apparent win as a source of significant uncertainty and a potential double-edged sword for the self-governing island of Taiwan.
Trump has previously indicated that Taiwan should contribute more financially for US defense support, potentially reshaping the partnership between the two sides, and increasing pressures on the democracy of 23 million.
China’s ruling Communist Party views Taiwan as part of its territory, despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island by force if necessary. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, Washington is legally required to provide the island with the means to defend itself, and it supplies Taipei with defensive weaponry. But the arms sales have drawn angry rebukes from Beijing.
In a statement, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te congratulated Trump and Vance on their electoral victory, and thanked Biden and Harris for their resolute support for Taiwan during their term. Lai stressed the importance of Taiwan’s friendship with the US and said Taipei would “continue to cooperate closely with the new US government and Congress to create a new chapter in Taiwan-US relations.”
Meanwhile, Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), which favors warmer ties with Beijing, voiced a hopeful outlook, expressing confidence that Trump’s experience could pave the way for “steadier bilateral relations” and foster closer cooperation between the US and Taiwan.
Aside from defense, economic concerns add another layer of potential tension. Trump has repeatedly accused Taiwan of “stealing” US chip business and has even threatened tariffs on Taiwan’s critical chip exports – used to power an array of modern technologies, from smartphones to satellites.
However, analysts say, far from stealing, Taiwan grew its own semiconductor industry organically through a combination of foresight, hard work and investment.
Taiwan now faces the challenge of navigating Trump’s shifting priorities, balancing both opportunities and uncertainties. Ultimately, the full impact on US-Taiwan relations remains to be seen, and hinge on who will be advising Trump on foreign policy.
Korean Peninsula: Big questions loom for South and North
Could President-Elect Trump reduce the number of American troops on the Korean Peninsula, or ask South Korea to pay more for its US security guarantee, once in office?
Those are the central questions now facing Seoul, as Trump has openly considered downsizing the approximately 28,500 US troops stationed in South Korea.
During an interview last month with the Economic Club of Chicago and Bloomberg News, Trump said if he served a second term, South Korea would pay $10 billion for US troops.
Seoul currently pays $1.13 billion annually for American military forces within its territory, a figure which under an agreement signed Monday is expected to rise to $1.26 billion annually in 2026.
“If I were there (in the White House) now, they’d be paying us $10 billion a year. And you know what? They’d be happy to do it,” Trump said. “It’s a money machine, South Korea.”
South Korea currently hosts the largest US overseas military base, Camp Humphreys, an Army garrison about 60 miles from North Korea. The South Korean government financed 90% of Camp Humphreys’ expansion costs within the past decade.
The American presence on the Korean Peninsula serves as a counterweight to North Korean and Chinese military forces, with joint military drills between the US and South Korea launching frequently from the American installations.
Would the drills cease or be reduced once Trump returns to office? Some of the exercises have also included Japan, after the Biden administration forged a new security partnership between Tokyo, Seoul, and Washington. Will that security pact continue with the same force into the next Trump administration?
Another question looming large in Seoul and Pyongyang: Will Trump seek another high-profile summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un? The cautious answer, according to Trump’s last national security adviser, Robert C. O’Brien: “I think we’d resume talks with North Korea.”
But if another summit were to happen, Trump would face an emboldened North Korea. Kim has since forged a new military partnership with Putin, sending munitions and North Korean special forces troops to fight in the Ukraine war.
In exchange, observers note, Putin may help Kim with advanced military technology, and send the isolated nation badly needed cash. North Korea is in desperate need of income after years of crippling sanctions over its nuclear program.
North Korea now has less of a reason to negotiate with Washington, since it’s the beneficiary of diplomatic cover, economic, and military resources from Moscow.
Trump, meanwhile, will likely demand change from both sides of the DMZ.
Trump has many fans in Africa, despite the declining influence of the US on the continent and widespread anti-Western sentiment. Africa’s population is overwhelmingly Christian or Muslim in faith so Trump’s “family values” positions, especially on abortion and LGBTQ issues, resonate deeply here. Colonial-era anti-homosexuality laws remain in place in large parts of the continent and the American right’s messaging on culture war issues has spread like wildfire on African social media.
Even though Harris travelled to Africa as vice president – visiting Ghana, Tanzania and Zambia – many here believed misinformation that falsely claimed that she had not accepted her Black identity before the campaign and that her Jamaican ancestors owned slaves. That is why some prefer Trump, who reportedly referred to African nations as “shithole countries” in 2018, over Harris who they grumbled was not proud of her African roots and identified as Indian.
The myth of Trump as a successful businessman remains strong in Africa, partly because “The Apprentice” TV show was widely distributed. Many on the continent have also embraced the Republican narrative of a strong US economy during the first Trump presidency. Their hope is that a stronger global economy bodes well for African trade with the rest of the world.
Africans who want an end to what they see as US meddling support Trump, hoping that his “America First” policy means he will leave the continent alone. Many analysts say Africa has fared better under Republican administrations, and view Trump’s win with cautious optimism. One example is the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) which was launched by George W. Bush 21 years ago and has saved many lives.
The Biden-Harris administration’s efforts to counter China’s influence in Africa will likely suffer with Trump’s win. It’s not clear if Biden will still visit Angola early next month to highlight one of those initiatives – the Lobito Corridor.
Trump’s victory holds enormous impact for Latin America.
Conservative leaders such as Argentinian President Javier Milei and El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, as well as Jair Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president, were among the first to congratulate Trump and will feel emboldened by such a conclusive win.
Progressives like Colombia’s Gustavo Petro and Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum are instead bracing for a bumpy relationship with the new White House.
Mexico will probably bear the brunt of the next four years because, as the US’ largest trading partner, its exports could be hit hard by the protectionist tariffs Trump has promised: on Wednesday morning the Mexican peso tumbled to its weakest level in two years before partially recovering in later trading.
Sheinbaum told reporters Wednesday that “there is no reason for concern” and that the US and Mexico “don’t compete with each other,” but her administration will be pressed to get on good terms with Trump quickly and sign a deal before the new economic policy is drawn.
Much of that deal will rest on migration, with Mexico required to play a more active role in limiting arrivals at the US’ southern border.
Trump’s pledge to forcibly deport millions of undocumented migrants, if enacted, could wreak havoc across the region, where many countries depend on remittances from the US to boost their economies.
That said, restraining migration towards the US will remain a formidable challenge in the next four years, especially if Trump’s plans boost domestic production at the expense of economies in the rest of the Americas.
Lastly, authoritarian regimes such as those in Venezuela and Nicaragua could see the benefit of a more transactional approach to foreign policy, the new White House happy to overlook their anti-democratic abuses as long as migration trends are reverted.
This post appeared first on cnn.com
