Archive

November 1, 2024

Browsing

The Halloween effect caught up with the stock market! October 31 ended up being a spooky day for investors.

Tepid earnings from big tech companies and negative news about Super Micro Computer (SMCI) sent stocks plunging, especially semiconductors (more on this below).

Precious metals, which were in a roaring bull rally, also sold off. Gold futures were down 1.84% and silver prices fell 3.76%. Risk aversion seems to be back, with the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) rising by 13.81%, closing at 23.16. As uncertainty about the upcoming US election results creeps up, the VIX could rise further. If there’s one indicator to monitor in the next few trading days, the VIX would make the top of the list.

Economic Data Supports a Rate Cut

There was a smorgasbord of economic data this week, most supporting the idea that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Some key data that was released are:

  • Wednesday’s JOLTS report shows that in September, US job openings were lower than expected.
  • The GDP for Q3 grew 2.8%, below the 3.1% estimate. Consumer spending was one of the biggest contributors to the GDP growth.
  • October consumer confidence rose over 11%, the biggest one-month rise since March 2021.
  • September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) shows a 12-month inflation rate of 2.1%.

Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls should give more clarity to the Fed’s interest rate decision.

Tech Sector Gets Slammed

The StockCharts MarketCarpets for S&P 500 stocks by performance was a sea of red (see below). The Technology sector was the worst-performing sector of the day with the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) down 3.21% on Thursday. The largest weighted tech companies in the S&P 500—Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Broadcom (AVGO), and Oracle (ORCL)—took a scary downward ride.

FIGURE 1. STOCKCHARTS MARKETCARPETS FOR OCTOBER 31. The Technology sector got slammed, as did most other sectors. Energy and Utilities were mostly green. Image source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

A big blow to semiconductors was SMCI’s news of its auditor’s resignation. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 3.65%. SMH has fallen below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) with a declining StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR), moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), and performance relative to the S&P 500 (see chart below).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF THE VANECK VECTORS SEMICONDUCTOR ETF (SMH). Thursday’s selloff sent SMH below its 50-day moving average. Other indicators show an increase in selling pressure.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

Thursday’s price action reminds us that things can change quickly, especially when the market has shown indecision for a while. Any negative news will cause a massive selloff, and if it impacts a sector that heavily influences the market, the selloff can be brutal.

There’s More To Come

On a positive note, from a long-term perspective, the broader indexes are still in an uptrend. Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Intel (INTC) reported earnings on Thursday after the close. While all of them beat estimates, Apple’s net income was lower. This could hurt its stock price, but probably not enough to bring the entire market down.

The more important news to pay attention to is Friday’s jobs number. The October nonfarm payrolls will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Friday. As of this writing, the Fed’s probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 94.6%. Let’s see how much that changes after the jobs data comes out.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are key to cutting greenhouse gas emissions and fighting climate change, and the Biden administration has implemented subsidies and tax incentives to foster US and North American supply chains.

Nearly US$1 trillion is flowing into various initiatives via the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal, CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The aim is to boost economic and tech development while supporting clean energy.

More specifically, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal invests in upgrading US infrastructure, including roads, bridges, public transit and broadband internet. Meanwhile, the CHIPS and Science Act promotes US semiconductor manufacturing and research to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, and the IRA focuses on reducing the deficit, lowering drug costs and investing in clean energy to combat climate change.

On the EV side, US$2 billion in funding is being directed toward the Department of Energy to provide grants for domestic production of various types of clean vehicles, from hybrids to hydrogen fuel cell cars. There are also critical minerals manufacturing subsidies and several consumer incentives, including a US$7,500 tax credit on new EV purchases.

In this article

    How would a Trump presidency impact the EV sector?

    As the US election approaches, with Republican candidate Donald Trump set to square off against Democrat Kamala Harris on November 5, speculation is rife about whether Trump would end EV incentives.

    In an August 20 interview with Reuters, the presidential candidate expressed his disdain for tax incentives.

    ‘Tax credits and tax incentives are not generally a very good thing,’ Trump said. ‘I’m not making any final decisions on (EV tax credits). I’m a big fan of electric cars, but I’m a fan of gasoline-propelled cars, and also hybrids and whatever else happens to come along.’

    However, battery sector experts at Fastmarkets’ Lithium Supply and Battery Raw Materials conference agreed it would be extremely difficult for Trump to repeal any or all of the three initiatives.

    “What can Trump legally change if he becomes president with the IRA?” Grace Asenov, base metals and energy editor at Fastmarkets asked rhetorically during her presentation at the event. “The quick answer is he is not going to be able to change very much. The IRA is law; anything that the treasury department does through regulation can be changed, but it would take a lot of time, and it would have to be done in a legally defensible way.’

    Even so, analysts at the Fastmarkets event believe that while changing the IRA and other legislation would be difficult, a Trump presidency would have a negative impact on EV sector growth. During a scenario analysis, they concluded that another Trump term could have three major implications for EV battery-related policies.

    First, Trump may impose stricter regulations on which EV models qualify for subsidies under the IRA, limiting eligibility for the US$7,500 tax credit. Second, his administration could eliminate Environmental Protection Agency vehicle emission standards that are expected to lead to 67 percent of vehicles being electric by 2032. Lastly, Trump might roll back commitments for 50 percent of the government fleet to be electric by 2030.

    “If implemented, these changes could result in 5 percent lower EV sales by 2034,” Asenov said.

    Has Elon Musk’s support affected Trump’s stance on EVs?

    Although Trump has ridiculed EVs in the past, a friendly relationship with Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has appeared to soften the former president’s stance.

    “I’m for electric cars. I have to be, because Elon endorsed me very strongly. So I have no choice,” he told reporters in August.

    Like Trump, Musk has also been outspoken about his disdain for EV subsidies and tax incentives, although Tesla has benefited from nearly US$3 billion in government subsidies since its inception.

    In addition to endorsing the Trump campaign, the Tesla founder has also appeared at several Trump rallies in swing states.

    Musk also launched a controversial voter sweepstakes in mid-October that offered US$1 million daily to participants who confirm their voting status on a designated website. The lottery, which also required voters to sign a petition in “support of the 1st and 2nd amendments,’ was quickly paused after the Department of Justice warned Musk that the incentive could violate US election laws prohibiting payments in exchange for voting.

    Will Trump try to compete with China on EVs?

    If Trump does want to see the EV and battery supply chain grow in the US, he may implement stronger restrictions on Foreign Entity of Concern nations, including China, which dominates the processing of lithium, rare earths and several other critical minerals. China is also the top producer of rare earths and other important commodities.

    “He could say, ‘We don’t want to rely on China at all (for critical minerals and battery processing and manufacturing),’” said Asenov, noting that such a decision would slow EV adoption.

    Trump’s aversion to Chinese reliance was also brought up during a panel discussion at the Fastmarkets event.

    “I don’t think he wants to lose to China on the manufacturing of EVs,” Howard Klein, cofounder and partner at RK Equity, said. “I’m relatively optimistic that whoever wins will not make major changes,” he added, noting that southern states have benefited from the subsidies — the same states where Trump has a large base.

    How could the IRA be improved?

    With the outcome of the US election still very much up in the air, the Fastmarkets experts spent time sharing ideas on how the IRA and other legislation in the country could be changed for the better.

    Steve LeVine, editor of the Electric, would like to see some collaborative measures implemented.

    “Who’s the world expert in making batteries and making the chemicals, making the components? It is the Chinese. So if I were to change any part of the IRA, it would be an incentive to bring Chinese expertise into the US to teach Americans how to do that,’ he told attendees at the Fastmarkets event.

    Asenov noted that Trump could look to close the US$7,500 credit loophole for leased vehicles through which consumers can lease an EV, get the incentive and then return the car after three years.

    For his part, Klein said he would like to see more investment in mineral extraction and production.

    “More money for mining. There is a lot of funding in the IRA, but no money for mining, just processing,” he said.

    Klein went on to note that allocating money for mining could “change the mentality” around the sector and send a positive message to the public about the often-maligned industry. Whether added to the IRA or adopted as standalone investment, the need to secure new and grow existing mined supply is a crucial first step in EV sector growth.

    Indeed, the International Energy Agency notes that demand for minerals used in EVs and battery storage is set to grow at least 30 times by 2040 in climate-driven scenarios.

    While investment in new mine supply, processing and manufacturing were agreed to be imperative, where that money comes from caused some division amongst the panelists.

    As Klein called for IRA funding, David Deckelbaum, analyst at TD Cowen, took a more “cynical view” of the IRA.

    “I don’t think (the IRA is) very pragmatic,” he said. “My criticism would be, especially as you look at the capital flows and attracting capital and investments, investors do not want to invest in something that requires infinite supplementation.”

    Deckelbaum went on to explain that he agreed with LeVine’s point, and suggested removing China from the ‘economy of concern’ list to allow materials from China to qualify for investment tax credits.

    This would also involve increasing consumer credits and eliminating income limits to boost adoption.

    ‘We should focus on creating demand domestically, rather than imposing restrictions on how manufacturers meet it. Since it’s not feasible to avoid buying materials from China, and investors are reluctant to support companies that can’t compete without government aid, the current approach isn’t sustainable,’ he said.

    Does Harris support an electric vehicle mandate?

    Kamala Harris stated that she does not support an electric vehicle mandate at an October campaign stop in Flint Michigan — the epicenter of American automotive production. The presidential hopeful told supporters, “I will never tell you what kind of car you have to drive.”

    She clarified her stance after the Trump campaign falsely claimed in ads that Harris would implement an electric vehicle mandate forcing US automakers to only produce electric or hydrogen vehicles by 2035.

    Instead, Harris promised to invest in “retooling” existing facilities in order to capitalize and benefit from the clean energy shift and support companies to hire locally.

    A Harris administration will likely lead to the continuation of Biden-era policies supporting electric cars, including the IRA and EV supply chain funding. She has also been vocal about her support of EV adoption, national clean energy goals and subsidies to encourage US-based EV production, as part of a larger goal of reducing carbon emissions and strengthening domestic supply chains.

    Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

    This post appeared first on investingnews.com

    Ora Gold Limited (ASX: OAU, “Ora” or the “Company”) is pleased to report assay results from infill RC drilling at the Crown Prince Project (M51/886) part of Ora’s broader Garden Gully tenure (Figure 1).

    Highlights

    • Ora has received assays for a 7,500m, 66-hole infill RC drilling program at Crown Prince. This drilling was undertaken to better define mineralised lodes within the south eastern zone (SEZ) deposit to upgrade resource categories within a future conceptual open pit area.
    • This drilling has returned some exceptional grades and intercepts including:
      • 20m at 277g/t Au from 40m including 4m at 1,368g/t Au from 52m (OGGRC859)
      • 15m at 14.7g/t Au from 152m (OGGRC872)
      • 9m at 21.44g/t Au from 28m including 2m at 77.8g/t Au from 31m (OGGRC883)
      • 7m at 11.74g/t Au from 132m (OGGRC874)
      • 11m at 6.72g/t Au from 4m (OGGRC886)
      • 12m at 6.05g/t Au from 76m including 4m at 10.2g/t Au from 80m (OGGRC895)
      • 9m at 6.27g/ t Au from 66m including 1m at 18.6g/t Au from 66m (OGGRC888)
      • 7m at 6.87g/ t Au from 133m (OGGRC864)
    • New very high-grade zones have been encountered in the footwall of SEZ lodes which will likely improve grade and tonnage estimates in this area.
    • This infill drilling has generally confirmed gold mineralisation modelling and has upgraded the quality in many areas.

    Ora is continuing to progress Crown Prince towards development, targeting production commencement mid calendar year 2025. Among the several workstreams underway, including regulatory approvals, the Company has completed infill drilling ahead of releasing an ore reserve.

    The program was designed to target zones of mineralisation within a conceptual pit design at Crown Prince that are currently in the inferred category of mineral resource (refer ASX release 20 February 2024). This drilling successfully confirmed mineralised zones and improved gold grades in some key areas.

    Other improvements from this infill drilling include delineation of new near surface high grade zones and parallel lodes in new positions in the footwall and hanging wall of the south eastern zone (SEZ) mineralisation.

    These zones are within the conceptual open pit for the Crown Prince deposit and are expected to add to the mineral resource and future mining inventory. Importantly, the grades returned in this infill drilling support existing published grades and may provide a foundation for an uplift in the average grade overall for the resource.

    Assay results discussed in this announcement are shown in Appendix 1 & Figures 2-5. RC hole details are included in Table 1.

    Alex Passmore Ora Gold’s CEO commented:

    “We are very pleased to report these exceptionally high-grade results returned from recent infill drilling. The infill drilling was carried out successfully and has confirmed or improved the mineralisation model we have for Crown Prince.

    Such high-grade headline results demonstrate the high quality nature of the Crown Prince Project and point to its likely strong economics during development and production.

    We look forward to providing further information on the updated resource estimate in coming weeks and then to follow up with an ore reserve as work progresses.”

    Cross Section A-A’

    Infill drilling at SEZ has confirmed new FW and HW lodes outside the current mineralisation wireframes, with outstanding high-grade intercepts Including: 20m @ 277.36g/t Au from 40m (incl: 4m @1368.11 g/t Au from 52m) in OGGRC859 and 35m @ 2.96 g/t Au from 173m In OGGRC873.

    Extensions to the current mineralisation model along section A-A have been confirmed by intercepts in OGGRC862, 875 and 872 which include 7m @ 6.87 g/t Au from 133m in OGGRC864 and 15m @ 14.7 g/t Au from 152m (incl: 1m @ 177 Au from 153m).

    New high-grade intercepts in OGGRC859, along with previous intercepts in OGGRC477 have highlighted additional mineralised zones close to surface in the footwall, which fall outside existing mineralisation wireframes.

    OGGRC873 has strengthened the current interpretation that the high-grade shoots at the southwestern end remain wide and continuous at depth.

    The SEZ host geology consists of a series of coarse-grained amphibole dolerites and minor high Mg basalts which grade into an intensely sheared unit proximal to mineralisation. Gold is associated with classic, extensional mesothermal style quartz lodes with characteristic Fe carbonate +/- fuchsite alteration, with high grade zones occurring with sulphide laminations and microstructures that crosscut the early-stage white buck veins.

    Recent infill drilling has confirmed that the mineralisation system remains high grade down dip, highlighting potential for future underground mining.

    Click here for the full ASX Release

    This post appeared first on investingnews.com

    In subtle but increasingly vocal ways, Israel’s military leaders are signaling that the country has achieved all it can militarily in Lebanon and Gaza, and it’s time for the politicians to strike a deal.

    It comes as Lebanon’s prime minister says that a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel could be imminent. Both candidates for the American presidency have also made clear they do not want wars in Gaza and Lebanon to be on the agenda when they take office.

    When the Israel Defense Forces’ top general sat down with officers in northern Gaza – who are waging one of the military’s fiercest operations since last year’s invasion – he went further than ever in suggesting the military phases of both conflicts should end.

    “In the north, there’s a possibility of reaching a sharp conclusion,” Herzi Halevi, Chief of the General Staff, said, referring to the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. In Gaza, he said, “if we take out the northern Gaza Brigade commander, it’s another collapse…. I don’t know what we’ll encounter tomorrow, but this pressure brings us closer to more achievements.”

    What those achievements should be is the subject of much consternation.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly pledged “absolute victory.” His defense minister and longtime political tormentor Yoav Gallant has bristled at that goal. In August, he told a closed-door parliamentary committee meeting that the idea of “absolute victory” in Gaza was “nonsense,” according to Israeli media.

    Gallant’s dim view of Netanyahu’s war goal was made official when earlier this week he reportedly sent a private memo to the prime minister and the rest of his cabinet saying that the war had lost its way.

    In Gaza, he wrote, Israel should ensure the release of the remaining hostages, make sure there is no military threat from Hamas, and promote civilian rule. That’s a far cry from the existing, maximalist war aim of eliminating Hamas’ military and governance capabilities.

    Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said Wednesday he was optimistic for a potential Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire to be struck “within the next few hours or days,” after speaking with US envoy Amos Hochstein, who arrived in the region on Thursday.

    Israel has for the past month carried out a massive, country-wide bombing campaign in Lebanon, and killed Hezbollah’s elusive leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In his interview, Mikati indicated that Hezbollah is no longer insisting that its conflict with Israel will only cease once the war in Gaza ends. That would allow it to accept a ceasefire without an end to the Gaza campaign.

    Gallant has said Hamas and Hezbollah have now been rendered totally ineffective as Iranian proxies.

    “These two organizations, Hamas and Hezbollah, that were groomed for years as a long arm against the State of Israel, are no longer an effective tool in the hands of Iran,” Gallant said during a memorial service on Sunday. “We know that some goals cannot be achieved by military action alone, and thus, we must honor our moral obligations to bring our captives home, despite the painful compromises involved.”

    And yet Netanyahu has remained defiant. When the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, returned from recess this week, the prime minister seemed to repeat his maximalist goal, and indicated he was unlikely to accept a conclusion anytime soon: “The absolute victory is an orderly and consistent work plan that we fulfill step by step,” he said.

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

    The winner of the US presidential election could have a sweeping impact on the contentious relationship between the world’s two largest economies and rival superpowers.

    But in China, where election news is filtered through heavily censored state and social media, the focus has been more on spectacle than substance – with a sense that no matter who wins, the tensions of the US-China relationship will remain.

    Part of the reason for that may well be a consensus in China – from policymakers down to regular citizens – that the die is cast for a US administration that wants to constrain China’s rise on the global stage, regardless of whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump wins.

    Trump’s last term saw the Republican slap tariffs on hundreds of billions worth of Chinese goods, launch a campaign against Chinese telecoms giant Huawei and use racist language to describe the virus that causes Covid-19, which was first identified in China.

    The past four years under President Joe Biden have seen a tone shift and effort to stabilize communication. But US concern about China’s threat to its national security has only deepened, with Biden targeting Chinese tech industries with investment and export controls, as well as tariffs, while also appearing to sidestep longstanding US policy in how he has voiced support for Taiwan – a “red line” issue in the relationship for Beijing, which claims the self-ruling island democracy as its own.

    Meanwhile, people in China have seen their economic prospects dim as the country has struggled to fully rebound following its stringent pandemic controls amid a wider slowdown and property market crisis, among other challenges.

    So, while the presidential campaigns are still playing across China’s daily news coverage and online discussions, interest in the candidates and their policies appears muted compared with past US elections.

    “(It) doesn’t matter who it is (that wins),” one social media user wrote in a popular comment on China’s X-like platform Weibo. “Their containment of China won’t ease.”

    Watching the ‘turmoil’

    As the campaigns unfolded over recent months, Beijing’s state media has honed in on social discord and polarization in the US.

    In recent days, the top post under the “US election” hashtag on Weibo has been about American concerns over potential post-election violence. The post, by an arm of state broadcaster CCTV, cites survey data from US media.

    A recent cartoon from state-owned newspaper China Daily circulated in domestic media showed the Statue of Liberty being crushed in the jaws of a dragon labeled “political violence.”

    “All walks of life in the United States are highly nervous, and public opinion is in turmoil,” reporters from state-run news agency Xinhua wrote in a recent dispatch, which also noted that “as political polarization and divisions in public opinion intensified in this year’s US election, political violence has also intensified.”

    A magazine affiliated with Xinhua has alternatively portrayed the elections as “lacking hope,” being ultimately decided by “invisible forces” of power, like Wall Street.

    Some nationalist bloggers have published videos and posts at times gleefully playing up what they describe as the potential for a post-election American “civil war” – rhetoric echoed in chatter on social media platform Weibo, which is heavily censored and largely dominated by nationalist voices.

    While picking up genuine concerns reported by American and international media in what has been a contentious and violent US election cycle, the coverage and conversation appears geared to telegraph the superiority of China’s own political system. There, China’s ruling Communist Party has an iron grip on political power and discourse.

    But despite the coverage, many in China have also keenly observed the democratic process – and pointed out the contrast to their own.

    “There’s no perfect system, but at least they allow people to question them,” one social media user said on Weibo.

    Candidate of choice?

    Both Harris and Trump have been hot topics on Chinese social media platforms.

    Harris appeared to be relatively unknown to Chinese social media users prior to becoming the Democratic candidate after Biden’s July withdrawal from the race.

    Since then, many posts and videos on Tiktok’s sister video app Douyin have mocked the vice president, for example picking on her laugh – in line with what is often a chauvinistic tone on China’s social media platforms and echoing comments made by Trump himself.

    Some posted clips of Harris’ speeches have a positive spin, however. Those point to her middle-class background and rise to the second-highest American office, a contrast to today’s China where the top echelons are stacked with men who often hail from politically elite families.

    “This is a true ordinary person’s story,” read one comment with hundreds of likes posted under a video with a clip of a recent Harris speech.

    Trump has at times captured tongue-in-cheek admiration across the Chinese internet. As president he earned the nickname Chuan Jianguo, or “Trump, the (Chinese) nation builder” – a quip to suggest his isolationist foreign policy and divisive domestic agenda were helping Beijing to overtake Washington on the global stage.

    But after the tumult of the past eight years, Trump fever appears to have cooled.

    “People are not optimistic about these two candidates … as their image and abilities can’t compare to those of past figures,” said Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University. That’s one reason why the level of Chinese public interest in this election appears lower than in the previous two votes, he said.

    View from the top

    Whoever wins the US race, Communist Party leaders likely expect there will be little improvement in tense ties, analysts said.

    “Looking to the future, regardless of whether Harris or Trump becomes the next US president, the continuity in US policy toward China will almost certainly outweigh any potential major shifts,” said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing.

    Beijing is careful not to directly comment on any views of the election, but likely sees Trump as bringing more uncertainly – and thus risk – into the relationship. The former president has threatened upwards of 60% tariffs on all imports from China and is known for his volatile foreign policy.

    But Beijing could see benefit in that if it weakens US overseas partnerships, observers say. The Biden administration has sought to work more closely with allies in Europe and Asia to counter what it sees as the “most serious long-term challenge to the international order” – China, while Trump has repeatedly questioned traditional US alliances.

    Chinese leaders will also be closely watching how a Trump presidency would handle the war in Ukraine – with Beijing likely wary of him taking steps to mend US relations with Russia and President Vladimir Putin, a critical ally for Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the global stage. The end of that war – which Trump has claimed he can quickly achieve – would also likely bring more US focus back to Asia-Pacific, which China doesn’t want to see.

    But Trump is still seen in Beijing’s policy circles as likely to drive a more fractious relationship with China than Harris would.

    The vice president is expected to tread a similar path to that laid by Biden – maintaining pressure on China to limit the development of its technology and military, but trying to keep some exchange and dialogue open.

    “That means it will be a mixture of tension, friction, and some limited degree of exchanges and cooperation … (while) Trump would present greater challenges to US-China relations. The main issue is that (Trump) handles US-China relations in an unconventional manner, lacking a sense of proportion and boundaries,” said Wu in Shanghai.

    “The most you can say is that the challenges to the relationship will vary depending on who is in office.”

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

    Overall Analysis

    1. Bitcoin continues to move within a sideways zone, showing strength on the upside. The previous swing is only 300 points away from its all-time high.
    2. Ethereum is slowly rallying upward, with high volatility evident in its price movement.

    Bitcoin Chart Analysis

    BTC/USD 15-Minute Chart (Source: TradingView)

    On the October 30, 2024 trading session, Bitcoin is moving within a sideways zone. On a higher time frame, the price is pausing near its all-time high, indicating potential accumulation for an upward move.

    This is a critical level, with resistance at 72,907 and support at 71,449. Entering at this point can be risky due to the low market momentum.

    Risk-tolerant traders may consider a buying entry if the price breaks above 72,907, targeting 73,808, with a stop loss below the recent swing low. Conversely, if the price breaks below 71,449 and closes under this level, sellers could enter, aiming for a target of 70,494, with a stop loss above the recent swing high.

    Currently, Bitcoin’s movements are not highly rewarding, so only high-risk traders are advised to trade.

    Ethereum Chart Analysis

    ETH/USD 15-Minute Chart (Source: TradingView)

    On the October 30, 2024 trading session, Ethereum showed upward momentum initially, but in the second half, the price was rejected from higher levels, closing near the day’s opening.

    The price is currently experiencing high volatility, moving within a channel, and this market is recommended exclusively for high-risk traders, as minor profit-taking is occurring.

    If you’re planning an entry, buyers might consider entering once the price finds support at the trendline and closes above it. Consequently, the target could be set at 2721, with a stop loss placed below the recent swing low.

    A selling opportunity may arise if the price breaks below the 2599 level, though an immediate drop might not occur.

    Final Thoughts

    Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are navigating critical levels, with Bitcoin showing strength near its all-time high and Ethereum moving upward with significant volatility. Bitcoin’s sideways movement, coupled with low market momentum, makes it a more cautious trading environment. It is suitable mainly for high-risk traders who are prepared for potential swings at key resistance and support levels.

    Similarly, Ethereum’s volatile channel suggests a limited immediate reward. Entry opportunities may emerge if the price confirms support at the trendline or experiences a decisive breakout.

    Overall, high-risk traders should stay alert to price movements near these key levels. Conservative traders, on the other hand, may prefer to wait for clearer momentum before committing to any positions.

    The post Bitcoin Near All-Time High, Ethereum Shows Slow Uptrend  appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

    Overall Analysis

    1. Gold has reached an all-time high and is holding at that level. The price is forming an ascending triangle, indicating a potential upward move.
    2. Silver fell sharply during Wednesday’s trading session, and lower levels may be retested. High volatility and a lack of structure make it challenging for traders.

    Gold Chart Analysis 

    Gold/USD 15-Minute Chart (Source: TradingView)

    During the trading session on October 30, 2024, gold reached a new all-time high of $2,790 and continued to hover around this level.

    Currently, the price is forming an ascending triangle pattern, and a breakout could trigger significant buying in gold.

    Traders can consider three conditions for trading gold now that the price has already risen.

    1. Traders can trigger a buying position if the price breaks out of the ascending triangle and closes above the $2,789.855 level, targeting $2,811 on a trailing basis, with a stop loss set below the previous swing low.
    2. If the price moves back into the ascending trendline channel, consider entering a buying position with a target of $2,789.855 and a stop loss below the previous swing low.
    3. In this scenario, a selling position may be triggered if the price breaks below $2,770.925, which acts as the neckline for a double-top formation. A selling position can be taken if the price closes below this level, with targets of $2,760.885 and $2,747, and a stop loss above the previous swing high.

    Silver Chart Analysis 

    Silver/USD 15-Minute Chart (Source: TradingView)

    During the trading session on October 30, 2024, silver continued its move toward a declining trend. On a higher time frame, the price appears to be moving in a ‘peanut’ pattern.

    Looking at the chart, we can see that the price faced rejection at the 34.542 level and moved down to test the 33.400 level. The price is forming a lower high, lower low pattern, indicating strength in the downtrend.

    If considering an entry, the price is currently finding support from the trendline and facing resistance from another trendline. If the price holds support and breaks the resistance trendline, traders may trigger a buying entry with targets of 34.00 and 34.2 and a stop loss below the previous swing low.

    Please note that silver is experiencing high volatility. It’s advisable to avoid trades until the price shows a more positive behavior.

    The post Gold & Silver Volatility: A Strategic Analysis for Traders appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

    Starbucks (SBUX) stock reported poorer-than-expected preliminary fourth-quarter results, thereby showing a revenue decrease of 3% year over year to $9.1 billion and a drop of 24% in the adjusted earnings per share, now standing at $0.80.

    Investors’ swift response in the form of a more than 5% fall in premarket trading on Wednesday was caused by the weak numbers and the announcement of Starbucks’ fiscal 2025 guidance suspension as it transitions to former Chipotle (CMG) CEO Brian Niccol.

    US same-store stores reported a 6% decrease in sales for the quarter, which is a clear change for Starbucks. A 10% fall in foot traffic and a 4% increase in average ticket size was the indication of the company’s problem in keeping the number of customers.

    A recent in-app promotion, which includes its pairing menu giving discounts on coffee and breakfast items, failed to improve the customer engagement level, the company claimed.

    Starbucks Reports 14% Sales Drop in China

    China, the main driver of the growth of the Starbucks brand, was experiencing a very sharp setback. Same-store sales tumbled by 14% through a 6% retrenchment in visitor numbers and a deflation of 8% in ticket size. Starbucks shared the fact that the poor performance was due to a twofold cause: a “soft macro environment” and competition, thus, reinforcing the barriers to international operations.

    Even though there was a quarterly downturn, Starbucks stock had risen 3% year to date and had increased 10% in the last six months, mainly due to the optimism linked to Niccol’s arrival. As the official fourth-quarter and full-year results should release after the market close on October 30, investors will look for any signs of a possible comeback strategy from the new leadership.

    Starbucks Stock Chart Analysis

    SBUX/USD 15-Minute Chart

    Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), through the 15-minute chart, we could see that this stock is moving in the zone of tight range with a certain degree of volatility but without any clear direction. On October 31, the price of Starbucks is $97.35, which saw a very small gain of 0.07%. Recently, the stock has tested resistance around $99, while the support area is found at $93.69.

    The sideways move shows that the market participants are still indecisive, with neither the bulls nor the bears being totally in control.

    RSI Signals Limited Momentum, Key Levels in Focus

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) now stands at 45.66, which means its position is neutral, with a slight bearish bias. The RSI has stayed below the 50 threshold, without crossing extreme levels, indicating limited momentum. This aligns with the orderly price movement we’ve observed, as the RSI has remained balanced between the 30 and 70 limits without any prolonged overbought or oversold conditions.

    In the near term, we can anticipate Starbucks to remain moving in this range, with potential resistance around $98 to $99 and support stabilizing near $93.69.

    If the price significantly pushes past the $99 mark, it may pave the way for further gains, while if it falls beneath $93.69, it is a potential indication of a possible longer. However, right now, one should observe volume as a probable earlier signal for a breakout either way.

    Is Starbucks finally going to come out of its vicious cycle and become top-notch again? Keep a close eye on the $99 level as well as the $93.69 level. A move in either direction could be the game-changer. Follow us for more updates.

    The post Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 Shock: Stock Revenue Drops 3% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

    Overall Analysis

    1. EUR/USD is moving upward, forming an ascending channel. The price may face strong resistance around the 1.08703 level.
    2. EUR/GBP is in a downtrend on the higher time frame, with the price encountering resistance near the 0.83825 level.

    EUR/USD Chart Analysis 

    EUR/USD 15-Minute Chart (Source: TradingView)

    On October 30, 2024, the price moved upward within a channel-like structure, showing high volatility. In the first half, the price rose sharply, briefly dropped below the day’s low, and eventually reached a new day high.

    Currently, the price is facing resistance at the 1.08703 level. If it breaks and closes above this level, an entry can be considered, targeting 1.08979 with a stop loss below the recent swing low.

    If the price breaks the support level and closes below 1.08448, sellers may take positions targeting 1.08080, with a stop loss above the previous swing high.

    Please note that due to high volatility, only high-risk traders are advised to enter the market.

    EUR/GBP Chart Analysis 

    EUR/GBP 15-Minute Chart (Source: TradingView)

    On the trading session of October 30, 2024, the price initially moved upwards and remained stable, but in the second half, it showed a strong dip, correcting more than 50% from the day’s high before reversing from the lows and making a new high.

    The price is in a selling trend on the higher time frame, which leads to sharp selling when the market attempts to break this trend.

    If planning an entry, note that the price is currently within a channel between 0.83448 and 0.83861. It sharply fell from the day’s high and retested the 0.83526 level. Given the sharp decline from the high, traders can consider a reversal buying trade if the price rejects this level, targeting 0.83861 and setting a stop loss below the previous swing low.

    Final Thoughts

    In conclusion, both EUR/USD and EUR/GBP present critical points for traders, with EUR/USD facing key resistance at 1.08703 in an ascending channel and EUR/GBP maintaining a downtrend near resistance at 0.83825.

    For EUR/USD, a confirmed breakout or breakdown could offer entry signals for high-risk traders. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP’s channel structure provides a potential buying opportunity if it rejects the 0.83526 level. Given the current volatility, careful risk management and adherence to stop-loss levels are essential in both scenarios.

    The post EUR/USD & EUR/GBP Analysis: High Volatility with Trends appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

    S&P 500 and Stock futures dropped on October 31, when investors digested not-so-good results of the tech corporations and, on the other hand, looked forward to reports from Apple and Amazon.

    S&P 500 futures fell by 0.5%, with the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones futures equally falling by 0.6% one day subsequent to the U.S. CPI year changes that rose 8.3% compared to the previous year.

    Meta Platforms’ premarket performance contributed to the cautious sentiment. Shares fell 3% as the company missed its user growth goals. Additionally, Meta announced that capital expenses will rise sharply in 2025, which contrasts with its strong third-quarter earnings.

    Microsoft’s revenue projections did not attract investors, leading to a 4% fall in its stock price in premarket trading, as Wall Street altered its growth expectations in the light of the company’s muted outlook.

    Wall Street Awaits Key Tech Earnings from Apple and Amazon

    On the economic side, the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was released. This index, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, showed that inflation increased as expected, nearing the Fed’s 2% target. This data suggests that inflation may be easing. However, investors remain cautious. They are wary of how both sluggish corporate earnings growth and inflation could impact overall market sentiment.

    On October 30, the major stock indexes showed slight declines; the S&P 500 slipped by 0.3%, the Dow decreased by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.6%. As far as Wall Street is concerned, investor attention has been shifted to the results of Apple and Amazon, particularly as to the viability of the development of the tech sector amidst a deteriorating economic environment. Most likely, these companies’ announcements will be the turning point of the earnings season.

    S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis

    S&P500/USD 15-Minute Chart (Source: TradingView)

    Today, the S&P 500 index is experiencing slight pressure. The price stands at 5,813.66, the same percentage down as before. Over the past week, the index reached a high of 5,878.46. Since then, it has been gradually declining, forming lower highs and lower lows. Thus, the probable conclusion is that momentum is slowing down, and a cautious sentiment is setting in.

    Key Support at 5,762.41 in Focus as Short-Term Bearish Trend Prevails

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the S&P 500 stock currently stands at 32.12, which is pretty much near the oversold territory. However, the RSI is trending downward. The 15-minute chart also shows a series of uninterrupted red candles. This indicates that, for now, the short-term bears are in control and are overpowering the bulls.

    Monitoring the nearest support level of 5,762.41 is a must. When a state of steadiness emerges among traders and the RSI begins to trend upwards, it may boost buyers’ confidence. This upward movement could indicate a short-term buying opportunity.

    In the short term, we are likely to see a cautious style of trading. This is displayed by range-bound situations in the market as investors monitor external factors, such as upcoming economic data and macroeconomic news. A breakthrough above the recent high of 5,840 could signal a revitalisation of buying interest in this stock.

    In case you are already holding positions, look at the resistance line at around 5,840 and be extra cautious about it as breaking above it may indicate a comeback to the bullish trend. Be aware of the most recent economic data releases, as they are a major driver of market psychology.

    The post S&P 500 Slide 0.48% as Wall Street Weighs Tech Earnings appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.