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A turbulent Q3 in the crypto market was marked by price volatility and shifts in investor sentiment.

Popular cryptocurrency Bitcoin, often seen as a bellwether for the industry, experienced sharp price corrections at the start of each month, with July and August witnessing declines exceeding 12 percent.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s performance in Q3 showed signs of declining user engagement and network activity, marked by a drop in daily active addresses compared to previous periods. Competing blockchains, particularly Solana, experienced growth in user activity during the same period, potentially signaling a shift in user preferences away from Ethereum.

Read on for an overview of market-moving events that shaped the crypto landscape in Q3.

July: Crypto sector faces mixed signals

July presented a dynamic period for the crypto market, marked by shifting trends and price movements. Crypto emerged as a major political catalyst after current president Joe Biden withdrew as the Democratic nominee, and Bitcoin’s price trended upward. However, as price swings through the month demonstrated, it remained sensitive to external factors, underscoring the continued influence of news and events on Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics.

Bitcoin price, July 2024.

Chart via CoinGecko.

In contrast, Ether saw a steep 8 percent drop in its valuation immediately following the launch of the highly anticipated Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on July 23. The ETFs themselves, however, fared well, demonstrating an impressive daily growth rate through the end of the month.

Ether price, July 2024.

Chart via CoinGecko.

Meanwhile, Solana emerged as a strong performer, driven by the growing popularity of liquid staking protocols. Solana outperformed Bitcoin and Ether as crypto surged between July 11 and July 21.

Focus immediately shifted to a potential Solana ETF, although analysts consider this unlikely in the near term. Solana’s decentralized exchanges ultimately processed more on-chain volume than Ethereum in July.

Despite some volatility, the CoinDesk 20 Index finished the month ahead by 1.98 percent.

August: Crypto markets falter, recovery lags stocks

August began with turmoil as macroeconomic headwinds triggered a wave of selloffs that affected the entire economy after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates on July 31.

In the US, employment data ignited fears of a recession and sparked a widespread stock rout. By August 5, the crypto industry had lost US$510 billion, and Bitcoin was below US$50,000, its lowest valuation since February.

While the broader stock market quickly rebounded, Bitcoin and Ether’s prices remained subdued, with a “death cross” pattern forming in Bitcoin’s price action, a historical signal of further potential decline.

Crypto sector market cap, August 2024.

Chart via CoinGecko.

The downturn was exacerbated by a surge in short-selling activity. Institutional investors initially provided some buying support after the rout, scooping up digital assets at lower prices, but this proved to be a short-lived reprieve.

As the month progressed, momentum shifted decisively toward sellers, with many likely capitalizing on the opportunity to short Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, further amplifying downward pressure.

Enthusiasm for Ethereum ETFs also waned in August, with net outflows increasing as investor sentiment turned bearish. Amidst this downturn, SOL continued to demonstrate resilience, demonstrating its potential to establish itself as a strong contender in an evolving crypto landscape.

September: Bitcoin and Ether break through resistance

September, a historically bearish month for the crypto industry, showcased its resilience.

The US Federal Reserve’s long-awaited interest rate on September 18 cut propelled Bitcoin and Ether prices through resistance levels. Meanwhile, market watchers also observed a surge in stablecoin valuations, particularly for XRP, following the launch of Grayscale’s XRP Token Trust on September 12.

Rekt Capital suggested that the end of September could mark the culmination of Bitcoin’s post-halving “reaccumulation range,” suggesting a potential transition toward a bull cycle heading into Q4. However, the firm also said it wouldn’t be surprising to see Bitcoin consolidate further in September before breaking higher in October.

Ultimately Bitcoin ended the month up 7.39 percent, just above US$64,540.

Also at the end of Q3, BlackRock’s spot Ethereum ETF surpassed US$1 billion in value for the first time.

Watch these crypto market factors in Q4

In a report on Q4 crypto market dynamics, Canadian fintech company WonderFi notes that while Bitcoin is still highly volatile, prices are showing longer periods of stabilization, suggesting it could be maturing as an asset class.

The firm points to global liquidity and politics as factors likely to influence the crypto market in Q4.

Matt Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management and Ric Edelman, founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals explained during the Q4 outlook webinar that Solana and Ethereum will likely be successful in Q4, matching sentiments expressed by Michaël van de Poppe for CoinTelegraph on September 3.

The upcoming election will undoubtedly be one of, if not the, most influential events to the crypto market in Q4. While a sitting president does not have direct control over the specific regulatory decision for crypto, the policies and priorities of the next administration will undoubtedly impact the future of the industry.

In a September 9 report, Bernstein Private Wealth Management predicts that Bitcoin could rise as high as US$90,000 if presidential candidate Donald Trump wins the US election in November, while a victory for current Vice President Kamala Harris could cause its value to plummet to US$30,000. Democrats have historically taken a more rigid stance in terms of regulation and consumer protection, although that tone appears to be changing.

The crypto industry has remained keenly tuned to potential shifts in leadership at key agencies such as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has had a contentious relationship with the crypto industry under Chairman Gary Gensler’s leadership. During a hearing by the US House of Financial Services Committee on September 25, senators in favor of a friendly crypto environment in the US criticized Gensler’s “reckless” handling of the industry.

Many voices in the crypto community have called for regulation to be designated to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission instead, and the agency has argued that at least 70 percent of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, should be considered commodities and not securities.

At the peak of Trump’s favorability following President Joe Biden’s exit from the race, 10x Research analyst Markus Thielen predicted that Gensler would likely leave the SEC in early 2025. With Harris as the new Democratic nominee, there has been no indication that she plans to replace Gensler if she wins, but the confirmation of SEC Enforcement Director Gurbir S. Grewal’s departure from the SEC on October 11 has prompted speculation that he could be next.

FIT21, a bill designed to provide regulatory clarity and strong consumer protections for the digital asset industry, made history in May when it was the first crypto legislation to pass in the US House of Representatives. It has since been deferred to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

At Crypto4Harris, a virtual town hall event organized by advocates and held on August 15, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he was hopeful that crypto legislation could be passed this year; however, thus far the Senate has not scheduled a vote, making it challenging to forecast the likelihood of the bill’s passage.

In addition to FIT21, Congressman John Rose (R-TN) introduced the BRIDGE Digital Assets Act to Congress on September 12. This bill seeks to establish a joint advisory committee consisting of members of the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It was referred to the Committee on Financial Services and the Committee on Agriculture.

The House’s next session is scheduled for November 12 to 21.

Investor takeaway

As the industry continues to mature, the final quarter of 2024 promises to be a defining period for the crypto market. With continued institutional adoption, evolving regulations and the rising interest in altcoins, this period could witness significant growth and innovation within the industry.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Pakistani police fired tear gas and charged at student protesters who ransacked a college building Thursday, as anger spread over an alleged on-campus rape, prompting the government to shut schools, colleges and universities for two days.

Tensions have been high on college campuses since reports of the alleged rape in the eastern city of Lahore spread on social media, and protests have broken out in four cities.

Sexual violence against women is common in Pakistan, but it is underreported because of the stigma attached in the conservative country. Protests about the issue have been rare.

Thursday’s violence started when hundreds of students demonstrated outside a campus in the city of Rawalpindi in Punjab province. They burned furniture and blocked a key road, disrupting traffic, before ransacking a college building. Police responded by swinging batons and firing tear gas to disperse them, police official Mohammad Afzal said.

Police said they arrested 250 people, mostly students, on charges of disrupting the peace. News of the arrests panicked parents, who struggled to get their children released.

In Gujrat, also in Punjab province, a security guard died in clashes between student protesters and police on Wednesday. Police arrested a person in connection with the death.

They also arrested a man who is accused of spreading misinformation on social media about the alleged rape and inciting students to violence.

Earlier this week, more than two dozen college students were injured in clashes with police in Lahore after they rallied to demand justice for the alleged victim, who they said was raped on campus at the Punjab Group of Colleges.

On Thursday, the government banned rallies and shut educational institutions in Punjab for two days, apparently to prevent more protests, officials said.

The Federal Investigation Agency said it has registered cases against 36 people accused of spreading misinformation about the case on social media.

Authorities, including the province’s chief minister, said there was no assault, as did the woman’s parents. But Punjab police on Thursday urged people to share any information about the alleged rape.

Mauz Ullah, a student at the college where the woman was allegedly raped, said they were protesting to seek justice for her.

He said he did not believe the college or police “as they kept changing their position” on the alleged assault. He said the college initially denied any such incident took place. “If no such incident had taken place, then why did they arrest a guard?” he asked.

The protests appear to have begun spontaneously. Student unions have been banned in Pakistan since 1984.

On Thursday, Usman Ghani, the head of the youth wing of the Jamaat-e-Islami opposition party, demanded an end to the ban on student unions, saying they might have helped resolve the matter without violence.

He said cases of sexual abuse at educational institutions are common.

“But the main thing is how you respond to make sure that the attackers don’t get away without getting arrested,” he said.

Hasna Cheema, from the rights group Aurat Foundation, said neither Pakistani police nor the media were trained to handle such sensitive matters.

“They turn things from bad to worse instead of solving them,” Cheema said.

The Sustainable Social Development Organization said last month that there were 7,010 rape cases reported in Pakistan in 2023, almost 95% of them in Punjab.

“However, due to social stigmas in Pakistan that discourage women from getting help, there is a high chance that due to underreporting the actual number of cases may be even higher,” it said.

This week’s protests come less than a month after a woman said she was gang-raped while on duty during a polio vaccination drive in southern Sindh province.

Police arrested three men. Her husband threw her out of the house after the reported assault, saying she had tarnished the family name.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The last time Charles and Camilla visited Australia in 2018, local marriage celebrant Lesley Kerl wore a bright red dress and managed to get close enough to the royal couple to strike up a conversation.

Naturally, it was about tea – a subject close to the heart of many British people – as Kerl passed Charles, then prince now King, a gift of a teapot from people further back in the crowd of flag-waving supporters.

“I got the bug after I saw him that time,” said Kerl, who counts herself as a supporter of the British royals, but not necessarily a diehard monarchist.

Kerl will be in Sydney on Tuesday to try to meet the 75-year-old British sovereign again during his first tour to a Commonwealth realm since acceding the throne.

After Australia, King Charles will head to Samoa to join world leaders at the biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), his first as head of the organization.

This is the King’s first long-haul multi-country trip since his cancer diagnosis earlier this year, and his schedule has been lightened over the 11-day trip to provide rest times during a pause in his treatment.

Like any royal tour, there’ll be organized pageantry, but also predictable talk around dinner tables, on television and online about when Australia might cut ties with the House of Windsor.

The consensus seems to be that it won’t happen anytime soon – not least because of Australia’s poor record on passing referendums that are required for any change to the country’s constitution.

For the government, the defeat of the most recent referendum last October – not on a republic but to enshrine an Indigenous advisory group in the constitution – was a painful lesson in the expense of holding such a vote and the damage it can do in a country with sharply divergent views.

Hello and farewell?

The sails of Sydney’s famed Opera House will be lit up on Friday for the royal couple’s arrival, but some of the pre-trip conversation has been less than welcoming.

Republicans have rebranded the visit as the “the farewell Oz tour,” selling merchandise including T-shirts featuring the faces of the leading royals as if they were members of a rock band on the verge of breaking up.

“We’d love to wave goodbye to royal reign,” Nathan Hansford, co-chair of the Australian Republic Movement, told Reuters.

For Bev McArthur, a member of state parliament, such sentiments are “disrespectful.”

“This man is having cancer treatment. He seems to have put that on hold to come out to Australia, as part of the Commonwealth,” McArthur said.

She’s equally disappointed with the response of state premiers who reportedly declined invitations to meet the King and Queen at a royal reception due to diary clashes.

“I think they’re just unable to take the republican hats off their heads,” said McArthur, a member of the Victorian parliament. “The least we can do is have our leaders pay the respect that he deserves.”

Other pressing concerns

The monarch’s arrival comes around one year to the day after the failed Voice referendum, which dealt a crushing blow to many of Australia’s minority Indigenous population.

It would have enshrined an Indigenous advisory body in the constitution to give Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people a greater say in policies relating to them.

Instead, it was voted down – and to many, the King’s arrival is another painful reminder of the dispossession, slaughter and attempted erasure of their people.

For others, the trip is an irrelevant distraction from a cost-of-living crisis as mortgage-holders struggle to find extra cash to finance loans inflated by high interest rates.

In a week where Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was reported to have bought a 4.3 million Australian dollar ($2.9 million) clifftop beach house, talk has also turned to the lack of housing affordability.

For the average Australian, lauding a visiting monarch from a palace in a foreign land is not high on their list of priorities.

A notable trip

While he has traveled overseas since his diagnosis, such as popping over the English Channel to mark the 80th anniversary of the 1944 D-Day landings in Normandy in June, this trip will be a significant moment for Charles.

“It is notable that he is visiting Australia in the year after his coronation, as this echoes the 1954 tour by his late mother, Queen Elizabeth II following her coronation in 1953,” said George Gross, royal historian and visiting research fellow at King’s College London.

The lack of travel to Commonwealth realms following his accession had raised eyebrows. The announcements of the first overseas tours to Germany and France were met with surprise. Those trips were followed by a visit to Kenya, which is a Commonwealth member but not a realm.

Charles is head of the Commonwealth organization – an association of 56 independent countries. Of those 14 nations, he is also head of state – in addition to the United Kingdom – though the role is largely ceremonial. Many had expected a stop in New Zealand might have been on the cards while he was in the region. However, while it had been considered, it was ultimately decided against following medical advice.

Aides have been working to ensure this long-haul tour is not too taxing on Charles. Each engagement will have been carefully handpicked to reflect the royal couple’s interests, and where necessary, have been modified to minimize any risks to his convalescence.

They’ll spend time in the Australian capital Canberra, where they will be welcomed by Albanese – who supports a republic – and other government leaders.

They’ll also pay their respects to the country’s fallen at the Australian War Memorial and the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander memorial.

Charles will also meet with award-winning professors Georgina Long and Richard Scolyer – the current Australians of the Year. They’re working on a treatment for melanoma, one of Australia’s most common cancers, and Scolyer himself has been treated for brain cancer.

The King’s program also includes several environmental engagements, and the couple will attend a timeless Aussie ritual – a community barbecue. Australians will also get a chance to see the royal couple outside the Opera House.

Kerl plans to be there, once again wearing bright clothing to try to catch the King’s attention.

In some ways, she’s carrying on a family tradition. Back in the 1930s, her father traveled with his mother from Australia to the United Kingdom to see the coronation of King George VI.

“That’s the type of royal blood I came from. They went from Australia via a ship in those days,” she said.

Kerl’s one-hour train ride from the New South Wales coast will be a lot shorter – but she thinks it’s important to show solidarity with a figure she’s long admired from afar.

“I’ve grown up like with him and (Princess) Anne, and here he is finally and having his turn as King. So, I like to support him,” she said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

More than a year after Hamas’ devastating October 7 attacks on Israel, the country’s military said Thursday it had killed the man it considers to have been the chief architect of that cross-border massacre – raising questions about the future of the war and of the militant group itself, which has faced blow after blow in recent months.

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could pose a rare opportunity to strike a ceasefire, US officials say – with Israel having killed several other top Hamas commanders including Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s former political leader, as well as leaders of militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hamas and Hezbollah are both part of an axis of militant groups backed by Iran.

In a recorded video message Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sinwar’s death marked “the beginning of the day after Hamas,” but “the task before us is not yet complete.”

Hamas is yet to comment on the reports of its leader’s death.

Here’s what you need to know.

How did it happen?

Since the October 7 attacks, Israel has poured their resources into a fierce manhunt for Sinwar, declaring him as the most-wanted man in Gaza and a “dead man walking.” At one point, an Israeli military spokesperson said their hunt “will not stop until he is captured, dead or alive.”

And, US officials believe, the Israeli military got close a few times, at one point even obtaining a video that purportedly showed Sinwar with several family members inside a Gaza tunnel – but he continued slipping away. The Israeli military previously surrounded Sinwar’s house and carried out an intensive assault on his hometown of Khan Younis, but could not find him.

That year-long search finally came to an unexpected end on Wednesday in Rafah, southern Gaza. Israeli forces had been in the area during a routine military operation when they came under fire near a building, according to two Israeli sources familiar with the matter.

The troops returned fire with a tank, then flew a drone into the heavily damaged building, according to the Israeli military. The video, shared by the military, shows what seem to be Sinwar’s final moments: he sits alone in a chair, surrounded by dust and rubble, appearing to look directly at the camera. He holds a piece of wood in his hand, and throws it at the drone before the video ends.

It was only then, and when troops inspected the rubble, that they realized Sinwar was among the bodies, according to the Israeli military.

Dental records and other biometrics helped Israel identify the Hamas leader, according to a US official and former official familiar with the matter.

Sinwar had been trying to escape to the north when he was killed, said another Israeli military spokesperson on Thursday. He was found with a gun and more than $10,000 in Israeli shekels, the spokesperson said.

Who was Sinwar?

Sinwar had long been a key player in Hamas, joining the militant group in the late 1980s and quickly rising through the ranks.

He was born in a refugee camp in Gaza, after his family was displaced from the Palestinian village of Al-Majdal – now part of the Israeli city Ashkelon – during the Arab-Israeli war.

As a student, Sinwar became an anti-occupation activist, but he was imprisoned in Israel on several life sentences after being accused of orchestrating murder. He served 23 years before being released as part of a prisoner swap in 2011.

Sinwar returned to Gaza and quickly established his name in Hamas. He founded the group’s feared international intelligence security branch, the Majd, and was known for employing brutal violence against anyone suspected of collaborating with Israel.

He was also viewed as a pragmatic political leader by some: in 2017, Hamas elected Sinwar as the political chief of the Politburo, its main decision-making body in Gaza.

Sinwar was designated a global terrorist by the US Department of State and the European Union in 2015, and was sanctioned by the United Kingdom and France in recent years.

But he rose to greater prominence after the October 7 attacks as one of Israel’s key targets. Israeli officials have called him the “face of evil” and “the butcher from Khan Younis.”

He became one of Hamas’ most senior leaders in August after Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran. Sinwar had not been seen since the October 7 attacks, likely surviving Israel’s siege of Gaza by bunkering in a vast network of underground tunnels.

What was his role on October 7?

Israel has publicly accused Sinwar of being the “mastermind” behind Hamas’ October 7 attack – though experts say he was likely one of several.

The attack was the deadliest assault on Israel in its history. Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups killed more than 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took about 250 people into Gaza as hostages.

Sinwar was considered a vital decision-maker and likely the outside world’s main point of contact in Gaza during the intense negotiations over the hostages’ return.

The talks involved senior figures from Israel, Hamas, the United States, Qatar and Egypt.

What comes next?

While it’s too soon to say what may happen next or how Hamas may respond, Sinwar’s killing marks the latest blow to the group – which has seen several top leaders picked off one by one during Israel’s campaign to dismantle Hamas entirely.

Only a day after Haniyeh’s assassination, Israel confirmed it had killed Hamas’ military chief Mohammed Deif during a previous strike – another one of the reported masterminds behind October 7.

With a ceasefire and hostage release deal to pause the war stubbornly stuck for months, senior US officials had clung to the hope that Sinwar might one day be taken out – opening a pathway to a resolution. With him now gone, officials speculate this could be one of the best chances of bringing the Israel-Hamas war to an end, but are reticent to make any predictions about what that will ultimately mean for the volatile region.

US President Joe Biden spoke with Netanyahu on a call Thursday, where “both leaders agreed that there is an opportunity to advance the release of the hostages and that they would work together to achieve this objective,” the prime minister’s office said in a readout.

But much remains unknown – including the fate of Sinwar’s brother.

If Mohammed survived this week, he will likely continue his brother’s hardline negotiating tactics as Israel seeks to extract its remaining hostages from the Palestinian enclave. But until a clear picture emerges, it will be hard to know the militant group’s next move.

And another front of the conflict is ramping up across the Israel-Lebanon border, with Hezbollah announcing a “new and escalating phase” in its war with Israel on Thursday.

Hezbollah, too, has suffered significant losses in recent months – from the deadly pager and walkie-talkie attacks that killed dozens and injured thousands, many of them civilians, to the assassinations of several high-ranking commanders including their chief Hassan Nasrallah last month.

“Sinwar has died, but so many of our people have been killed, and there is no excuse now for Netanyahu to continue the war,” said 22-year-old Mumen Khalili.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The United States has imposed sanctions on two China-based drone suppliers and their alleged Russian partners, the first time it has penalized Chinese companies for supplying complete weapons systems to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

Washington has long accused China of supporting Russia’s war effort by supplying dual-use goods and components that could be used in the manufacture of weapons, which Beijing denies. But in an announcement Thursday, the US Treasury Department accused the Chinese firms of direct involvement in arms supplies to Moscow.

The Chinese companies had collaborated with Russian defense firms in the production of Moscow’s “Garpiya series” long-range unmanned aerial vehicles, the department said in a statement. The drones were designed, developed and made in China before being sent to Russia for use in the battlefield, it said.

“The Garpiya has been deployed by Russia in its brutal war against Ukraine, destroying critical infrastructure and causing mass casualties,” it said.

“While the United States previously imposed sanctions on (Chinese) entities providing critical inputs to Russia’s military-industrial base, these are the first U.S. sanctions imposed on (Chinese) entities directly developing and producing complete weapons systems in partnership with Russian firms.”

The statement accused Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine Co., based in the coastal city of Xiamen, of producing drone engines for the Garpiya series.

The US accused the other sanctioned Chinese company, Redlepus Vector Industry Shenzhen Co., of working with a Russian defense firm to facilitate the shipment of the drones to Russia.

The Treasury Department said Redlepus had also sent shipments to Russia of components that can be used in drones, including aircraft engines, parts of automatic data processing machines and electrical components through Russian defense firm TSK Vektor.

The US also imposed punitive measures on the owner of TSK Vektor, a Russian national, and another company he owns. The US previously sanctioned TSK Vektor last December for helping Russia to acquire attack drones.

“We have seen for some time Chinese companies providing components to Russian companies that Russian companies then use to turn into machinery, weapons, other components that Russia could use in its war,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters Thursday.

“This was the first time we actually saw a Chinese company manufacturing a weapon itself that then was used on the battlefield by Russia.”

‘Common views’

Beijing has previously denied supplying weaponry to Russia and maintains it keeps strict controls on such goods.

The Chinese embassy in Washington denied the latest accusations and said China was handling the export of military products responsibly, according to Reuters.

“The U.S. makes false accusations against China’s normal trade with Russia, just as it continues to pour unprecedented military aid into Ukraine,” embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said in a statement, according to Reuters. “This is (the) typical double standard, and extremely hypocritical and irresponsible.”

China’s support for Russia as the Kremlin wages war in Ukraine has become a key point of tension between Washington and Beijing as they seek to stabilize rocky relations.

Beijing has claimed neutrality in the more than two-and-a-half-year long conflict even as it has deepened political, economic and military ties with Moscow. China has become Russia’s top trade partner, offering a crucial lifeline to its heavily sanctioned economy, and the two nuclear-armed neighbors have ramped up joint military exercises in recent months.

In the latest sign of their deepening alignment, Chinese and Russian defense officials vowed to strengthen their cooperation during meetings in Beijing last week.

The two countries have “common views, a common assessment of the situation, and a common understanding of what we need to do together,” defense chief Andrey Belousov told Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, according to Russian state-run news agency Tass.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Voters in Moldova will cast their ballots Sunday in two crucial votes, which have been billed as the most consequential in the country’s post-Soviet history. One is for president, the other a referendum on eventual European Union membership; neither appears safe from pro-Russian meddling.

Some of those voting have been offered the chance to make a quick buck. Ilan Shor, a Moldovan oligarch with links to the Kremlin, has said he’ll pay people for working to elect a Russia-friendly candidate and stop the referendum passing.

Since being convicted in absentia for his role in stealing $1 billion from Moldovan banks in 2014, Shor has spent much of his time in Russia, where he has set up a political movement that Moldovan officials claim is attempting to interfere with the country’s presidential election and EU referendum.

Alongside a more sophisticated misinformation campaign, Shor has resorted to cruder methods to meddle with Moldovan politics. In a video posted to his Telegram last month, Shor said he would pay voters the equivalent of $28 if they registered with his campaign, with the prospect of more for good results.

“If you have worked well and most people in your area voted against (the referendum), the bonus that you receive personally from me on your card will be 5000 lei ($280),” he said.

Authorities say Shor’s offer is part of a wider campaign attempting to sway the two votes, which could determine whether Moldova continues its path toward the West or remains lodged within the Kremlin’s orbit.

Moldova, an eastern European country of some 2.5 million people sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine, has veered between pro-Western and pro-Russian courses since the end of the Cold War.

Russia still has some 1,500 troops stationed in Transnistria, a sliver of territory which illegally split from Moldova as the Soviet Union crumbled and has since been run by pro-Russian separatists.

But Moldova’s pro-Western camp has dominated since 2020, when Maia Sandu – a Harvard-educated former World Bank official – won the presidential election by a landslide, promising to clean up the country’s judiciary and combat corruption, a major issue. Her Party of Action and Solidarity won a majority in parliament the next year. She’s now seeking a second presidential term and is considered the frontrunner.

As in many formerly Communist countries, Moldovan politics was rocked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Home to a Romanian-speaking majority and large Russian-speaking minority, many Moldovans had long viewed Russia as a benign big brother. But as Russian troops swept across southern Ukraine toward the port city of Odesa – near Moldova’s eastern border – and more than 500,000 Ukrainian refugees fled to Moldova, many in the country realized their own vulnerability to Russian aggression.

Russia’s invasion drastically accelerated Moldova’s path toward EU membership. Although Sandu had set her sights on joining the bloc, Moldovan officials understood this was a distant prospect, said Nicu Popescu, Moldova’s then-foreign minister and deputy prime minister.

The war has even ended Moldova’s near-total reliance on Russian gas, albeit at a cost. The country was plunged into an energy crisis when Russia’s Gazprom sharply cut gas supplies and hiked its prices, in what Moldovan officials alleged was an attempt to punish Sandu for tacking closer to Western Europe. With winter approaching, Moldova swiftly had to arrange alternative energy supplies from Europe. As of late last year, it no longer buys gas from Gazprom. “Moldova can’t be blackmailed anymore,” the country’s energy minister said this year.

Opposition ‘lost its self-identity’

Polling suggests that many in Moldova have been impressed by Sandu’s first term. A CBS-AXA poll found more than 36% of Moldovans supported Sandu, placing her far ahead of any of her 10 opponents.

If no candidate wins 50% of the vote on Sunday, a second-round vote will be held on November 3.

Sandu’s closest rival, former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, trails with just over 10% of support among those surveyed. But analysts say his platform is a measure of the state of disarray in which Russia’s war in Ukraine has left Moldova’s opposition parties.

Despite running for the traditionally pro-Russian Party of Socialists, Stoianoglo says he supports Moldova joining the EU – something that would have been “unimaginable just a few years ago,” according to Maksim Samorukov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

‘Russia is financing this’

Instead, officials say Russia is pouring more resources into trying to swing the EU referendum, when Moldovans will be asked whether they support constitutional changes that could lead to the country joining the bloc.

Moldova’s national police chief, Viorel Cernauteanu, said earlier this month that more than 130,000 Moldovans had been bribed by a Russia-managed network to vote against the referendum. He said more than $15 million had been transferred last month alone, to buy votes and even to pay people as much as $5,500 to vandalize public buildings, Reuters reported.

“It is clear that Russia is financing this,” Cernauteanu said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected accusations that Moscow is interfering in Moldova’s political process. “There are still many people in Moldova who support the development of good relations with our country,” he said at a briefing this week.

Alongside alleged vote-buying, Pistrinciuc said Moldovans have been bombarded by online propaganda. The messaging includes highly personal attacks against Sandu and warnings that joining the EU will lead to war and the foisting of LGBTQ ideology upon the country.

The online campaign is “so big it’s incomparable to the size of the country,” Pistrinciuc said.

While Moldovan officials are alarmed, Samorukov said the campaign of meddling was also a sign of Russia’s waning influence in the country.

“It reflects the loss of the national allure of Russia in Moldovan society,” he said. “It also reflects the total laziness and cynicism of the Russian leadership, who have just given up on any soft power techniques and resorted to the crude buying of votes.”

Popescu said that vote-buying can only achieve fleeting results: When the money dries up, so will the support. “It mainly works for people who don’t have strong convictions, people who are disappointed, who traditionally don’t vote,” he said. “There’s limits (to what can be achieved).”

But even if Sandu prevails in both the presidential vote and the EU referendum, he expects the Kremlin’s campaign to continue. “It’s more about destabilization and building stronger fundamentals for Russia-supported candidates for the parliamentary elections next year,” he warned.

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Bitcoin and Ethereum: Bitcoin is close to a weekly high

  • The price of Bitcoin retreated to the $66,600 support level on Thursday, October 17
  • Ethereum price continues to consolidate above $2600 on Friday, October 18

Bitcoin chart analysis

The price of Bitcoin retreated to the $66,600 support level on Thursday, October 17. After a short consolidation in that zone and the support of the EMA 50 moving average, we started a recovery above the $67,000 level. The price continued to rise up to the $68335 level. We encounter minor resistance at this level and pull back to the $67,900 level. Bitcoin is still very bullish, and we expect to return to the bullish side soon.

Potential higher targets are $68500 and $69000 levels. For a bearish option, we need a stronger bearish impulse below the $67500 level. Down there, we would test the daily open level. Then, we need a break below to form a new daily low and confirm the move to the bearish side. Potential lower targets are the $67,000 and $66,500 levels.

 

Ethereum chart analysis

Ethereum price continues to consolidate above $2600 on Friday, October 18. We have resistance in the $2650 zone for the second day in a row. The price ponovo nailazi na otpor u toj zoni i fall to $2635. Now, we need a new level of support in order to stay on the bullish side and continue the growth. Potential higher targets are $2660 and $2680 levels.

For a bearish option, the price of Ethereum needs to go back down to the daily open level of $2605. Failure to hold there will increase bearish momentum and send us below to a new low. The EMA 50 moving average moves to the bearish side, putting additional pressure on the price. Potential lower targets are $2600 and $2580 levels. At $2560, Ethereum will retest the EMA 200 moving average, which it received support at the beginning of the week.

 

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Oil and Natural Gas: Natural Gas under pressure EMA 200

  • During this morning’s Asian trading session, the oil price continued its sideways consolidation in the $70.00-$70.70 range
  • The price of natural gas continued to move in the support zone on Friday, October 18

Oil chart analysis

During this morning’s Asian trading session, the oil price continued its sideways consolidation in the $70.00-$70.70 range. The price continues to move in the support zone and below the EMA 50 moving average. Oil is still under pressure, which could produce a bearish impulse to a new daily low. This means a price drop below the $70.00 level again. Potential lower targets are $69.50 and $69.00 levels.

If we manage to reach $71.00, with that step, we get the support of the EMA 50 moving average to continue to the bullish side. We expect to see further oil advance with stronger bullish momentum to a new daily high. Potential higher targets are $71.50 and $72.00 levels. EMA 200 moving average could be a big problem in the $72.00 zone.

 

Natural gas chart analysis

The price of natural gas continued to move in the support zone on Friday, October 18. We are very close to breaking below the weekly low of $2.68. Rising price pressure could trigger a bearish impulse and thus form a new lower low. Potential lower targets are $2.65 and $2.60.

For a bullish option, the price of natural gas would have to first return above the $2.70 level. After seeing that, we expect a bullish impulse above the $2.72 level. There, we get the support of the EMA 200 moving average, which should further strengthen the bullish momentum for the continuation of the recovery. Potential higher targets are $2.75 and $2.80 levels. The EMA 50 moving average could represent resistance in the zone of the $2.80 level.

 

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Gold and Silver: Gold continues to climb to higher levels

  • The price of gold on Friday, October 18, gets a new bullish boost to a new all-time high at the $2714 level
  • During this morning’s Asian trading session, the price of silver initiated a bullish consolidation again above the $32.00 level

Gold chart analysis

The price of gold on Friday, October 18, gets a new bullish boost to a new all-time high at the $2714 level. After that, we initiated a pullback to the $2702 level. Here, the price stops the further pullback and reverts to the bullish side. With two new bullish impulses, gold rises again above $2710 and approaches the previous high. We need one more impulse, and here we are at a new all-time high.

Potential higher targets are the $2720 and $2730 levels. For a bearish option, we need a negative consolidation of the gold price below the $2700 level. After that move, space opens up towards the daily open level of $2693. In that zone, we can test the EMA 50 moving average because it was our support in the previous days. This time, we need a break below and the formation of a new daily low. Potential lower targets are $2690 and $2680 levels.

 

Silver chart analysis

During this morning’s Asian trading session, the price of silver initiated a bullish consolidation again above the $32.00 level. We formed a daily high at $32.17 and confirmed the weekly high. The price has been in a stable bullish consolidation and has received support from EMA 50 and EMA 200 since Tuesday, October 15. We expect to see further growth and a breakout to a new weekly high. Potential higher targets are $32.20 and $32.30 levels.

For a bearish option, the price of silver must remain below the $32.00 level. Failure to move above will add to the momentum and trigger a bearish consolidation. Going down to the $31.80 level, we are back to testing the EMA 50 moving average. This time, we hope for a break below and the formation of a new daily low. Potential lower targets are $31.70 and $31.60 levels.

 

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EURUSD and GBPUSD: The Euro returns to the positive side

  • On Thursday, October 17, EURUSD retreated to 1.08112 to a new three-month low
  • During this morning’s Asian trading session, GBPUSD saw a bullish consolidation from the 1.30100 level

EURUSD chart analysis

On Thursday October 17, EURUSD retreated to 1.08112 to a new three-month low. The pair managed to stop further retreat and start recovery. During this morning’s Asian trading session, the Euro continued to rise to 1.08500. In the zone of that level, we encounter the EMA 50 moving average, which has been a constant resistance for us this week. This time, we expect a break above and the formation of a new daily high.

Potential higher targets are 1.08600 and 1.08700 levels. For a bearish option, EURUSD would have to turn to the bearish side again. The important level is the 1.08300 daily open price. By breaking below, we go to a new daily low and strengthen the bearish momentum. Potential lower targets are 1.08200 and 1.08100 levels.

 

GBPUSD chart analysis

During this morning’s Asian trading session, GBPUSD saw a bullish consolidation from the 1.30100 level. At the start of the EU session, we saw a bullish impulse to 1.30700 to a new daily high. With that jump, the pair tested the weekly open level and the EMA 200 moving average. In the first swing, we failed to hold and saw a pullback to 1.30300. GBPUSD starts a new bullish momentum from this support level and has a new chance to return above the EMA 200 and the weekly open level to the positive side. 

Potential higher targets are 1.30800 and 1.30900 levels. For a bearish option, the pair should encounter resistance in the 1.30500 zone. After that, we expect the initiation of bearish consolidation below 1.30300 and a drop to 1.30200. There, we will test the EMA 50 moving average in the hope of stopping further decline. A break below means a continuation to the bearish side and the formation of a new low. Potential lower targets are 1.30100 and 1.30000 levels.

 

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