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October 2024

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Chip stocks faced losses early this week, sparking volatility in the tech sector.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin was on the rise after US Vice President Kamala Harris said she plans to support innovation in the cryptocurrency industry. Elsewhere, Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) signed nuclear power deals.

1. Bitcoin price rises to nearly US$70,000

The price of Bitcoin rose above its 200 day moving average late on Sunday (October 13) evening, reaching US$62,640 on the back of optimism over China’s recently announced stimulus plan. The popular cryptocurrency’s gains extended into Monday (October 14) morning, and it eventually surpassed US$66,400 for the first time since late July.

Data from CoinGlass shows over US$100 million in liquidated short positions due to the sudden price jump.

Bitcoin performance, October 12 to 18, 2024.

Chart via CoinGecko.

Open interest in Bitcoin futures has surged to an all-time high, indicating strong institutional participation and raising expectations for a continued price rally. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds also saw record inflows of over US$250 million every day this week, further fueling bullish sentiment among sector participants.

Crypto analyst Omkar Godbole has suggested that the recent breakout could signal a significant upswing. The US$70,000 mark is now being eyed as Bitcoin’s next major resistance level, while Ether’s next hurdle lies at US$2,770.

Bitcoin closed the week at US$68,362, while Ether is currently priced at US$2,663.

US election speculation also impacted Bitcoin this week.

On Monday evening, Harris pledged to support a regulatory framework for crypto, although the news was somewhat dampened as she didn’t share a detailed plan. Even so, that didn’t stop Ripple Labs co-founder Chris Larsen from donating US$1 million worth of XRP tokens to Future Forward, a super PAC supporting Harris’ run.

2. Chip stocks stumble on export cap reports

A Monday afternoon report from Bloomberg revealed that the US government is considering capping sales of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips from American companies to certain countries.

Sources familiar with the matter reported that the move would be made in the interest of national security and that officials are focused on countries located in the Persian Gulf, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

Both nations have invested heavily in AI, including significant contributions from the United Arab Emirates’ Mubadala Investment Firm to Anthropic, and Saudi Arabia’s reported US$40 billion investment fund, which was established in partnership with Andreessen Horowitz.

NVIDIA and AMD performance, October 14 to 18, 2024.

Chart via Google Finance.

Shares of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) fell by over 4 percent on Tuesday (October 15), the day after the report’s release.

Only one day earlier, the company reached its highest closing value since June, driven by positive chip industry sentiment. Shares of AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), one of NVIDIA’s top rivals, also fell by over 4 percent on Tuesday morning.

According to Bloomberg, officials from the Bureau of Industry and Security, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council and representatives from Intel, AMD and NVIDIA have all declined requests to comment.

3. ASML’s Q3 results fall flat

On Tuesday, ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) mistakenly its Q3 results one day ahead of schedule, revealing lowered sales expectations from around 40 billion euros to 35 billion in 2025.

The company also missed revenue expectations for the quarter by more than half, prompting a nearly 16 percent decline in its share price for the week and erasing roughly 50 billion euros from its market cap.

‘While there continue to be strong developments and upside potential in AI, other market segments are taking longer to recover. It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness,” said ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet in a press release.

ASML performance, October 14 to 18, 2024.

Chart via Google Finance.

The impact of ASML’s results sent shockwaves through the semiconductor industry, as ASML is a key supplier to many of the world’s largest chipmakers. Shares of ASML’s major customer, TSMC, also fell about 3.3 percent in early trading on Tuesday, two days ahead of the company’s own third quarter release. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), which has already seen its market share dwindle this year, and Samsung (KS:5930) also saw their share prices fall by over two percent each, contributing to a close 5.1 percent lower for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

Analysts attributed ASML’s lowered sales expectations to several factors, including slower-than-expected demand for logic and memory chips and potential export controls in China. “Logic foundries are ramping up new nodes at a slower pace than expected, and ASML is seeing little capacity additions in memory so far,” Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero wrote on October 16 cutting ASML’s fair value estimate from 900 euros to 850 euros.

4. TSMC raises revenue growth target

TSMC (NYSE:TSM) posted better-than-expected Q3 results on Thursday (October 17), raising its target for revenue growth to around US$26 billion from US$22.4 billion – US$23.2 billion as reported in Q2.

Third-quarter earnings increased by 39 percent year-on-year to roughly US$23.5 billion, representing growth of nearly 13 percent compared to the previous quarter. Net income also increased by an impressive 31.2 percent. Given the company’s strong revenue report for September, released last week, the market anticipated a positive report. Investors sent the company’s stock price above US$200 for the first time this year on Thursday morning ahead of the release.

TSMC and ASML performance, October 14 to 18, 2024.

Chart via Google Finance.

“Our business in the third quarter was supported by strong smartphone and AI-related demand for our industry-leading 3nm and 5nm technologies,” said Wendell Huang, Senior VP and Chief Financial Officer of TSMC.

“Moving into (the) fourth quarter 2024, we expect our business to continue to be supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies,” said the company’s CFO and Senior vice president, Wendell Huang.

Shares of TSMC’s two biggest customers, NVIDIA and Apple, also received a boost following the release of the report. Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) share price opened 1.75 percent higher when the markets opened on Friday (October 18) and is up 2.66 percent for the week. NVIDIA, which suffered a setback at the start of the week after reports surfaced that the US government potentially limiting exports of its GPUs to certain countries on the Persian Gulf, opened 2.63 percent higher ahead of the report’s release on Thursday morning. NVIDIA’s share price is up 1.11 percent for the week.

5. Google, Amazon sign nuclear power deals

Last month, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) announced plans to source energy for its data centers from nuclear power, signing a multi-year purchase agreement with Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG). Now, Google and Amazon are the latest Big Tech companies to look to nuclear power to meet their growing energy needs.

On Monday, Google signed an agreement to purchase nuclear energy from several small modular reactors (SMRs) that will be developed by Kairos Power. The deal is part of Google’s efforts to reach its ambitious net-zero goals.

The first SMR is set to come online by 2030, with additional deployments scheduled through 2035.

Amazon made a similar announcement on Wednesday (October 16), signing three agreements with Energy Northwest, X-Energy and Dominion Energy (NYSE:D) to support the buildout of SMRs in Virginia and Washington.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Though he is provided with a straw mat, Matthew says he prefers to sleep on the concrete floor of his cell in the maximum-security wing of Singapore’s Changi Prison.

“It’s more cooling that way,” says the 41-year-old former schoolteacher, who was sentenced to more than seven years in prison and seven strokes of the cane for selling methamphetamine.

In recent years, dozens of US states and countries ranging from Canada to Portugal have decriminalized marijuana.

But Singapore imposes a mandatory death penalty for people convicted of supplying certain amounts of illicit drugs – 15 grams (half an ounce) of heroin, 30 grams of cocaine, 250 grams of methamphetamine and 500 grams of cannabis.

A 64-year-old man was hanged for drug offenses this week – the fourth person to be hanged so far this year.

The harsh sentencing puts the wealthy city-state in a small club of countries that includes Iran, North Korea and Saudi Arabia, which execute criminals convicted of drug offenses.

K Shanmugam, Singapore’s Minister for Home Affairs and Law, characterizes the country’s war on drugs as an “existential battle,” and claims any easing of the government’s hardline stance could lead to chaos.

“Look around the world,” Shanmugam says. “Any time there has been a certain laxity in the approach to drugs, homicides go up. Killings, torture, kidnappings … that goes up.”

A lucrative drugs market

Visitors to Singapore get a stark warning about the island’s zero tolerance for drugs as international flights descend for landing.

“Drug trafficking may be punishable by death,” a woman’s voice announces over the loudspeaker, amid instructions to passengers to buckle seat belts and stow away tray tables.

Many citizens of this Southeast Asian city-state are also aware that it is illegal for them to consume drugs overseas.

Returning Singaporeans and permanent residents run the risk of facing drug tests upon arrival.

“When you come back, and if there is a reason to believe you have taken drugs, you could be tested,” Shanmugam says.

Per capita, Singapore is one of the world’s wealthiest countries. With a population of nearly 6 million people, it has an annual GDP per capita of nearly $134,000.

This regional transport and financial hub has a reputation for safety, efficiency and strictness under de facto single-party rule.

The People’s Action Party, of which Shanmugam is a member, has governed Singapore since its independence nearly six decades ago.

Speaking from a balcony in the Home Affairs Ministry overlooking tidy neighborhoods of parks and villas, Shanmugam argues his country is a potentially lucrative market in a part of Asia he says is awash with drugs.

“If you are able to traffic into Singapore, the street price here compared to the street price in some other parts [of the world], it’s a magnet.”

Singapore stands in relatively close proximity to the notorious Golden Triangle, the mountainous intersection of Thailand, Laos and civil war-torn Myanmar. Last year, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) labeled the region the world’s largest source of opium. Production of methamphetamine in the region has also surged in recent years, outpacing heroin and opium.

Singapore’s anti-drug czar claims strict punishment serves as a deterrent to drug traffickers.

“Our philosophy on prisons is not the same as, say, the Scandinavian philosophy,” Shanmugam says. “We choose to make it harsh,” he adds. “It is not a holiday home.

“It is intended to be tough.”

Single cells in stifling heat

Singapore’s Changi Prison Complex is a walled compound of guard towers and imposing gates built in the shadow of the country’s main airport.

More than 10,000 prisoners are held here, and according to the prison’s latest annual report, most are serving time for drug offenses.

A network of security cameras mounted inside and outside individual cells and even over toilets allow just five guards to monitor the entire floor.

At mealtimes, the metallic clang of shutting gates echoes through the cell block, as a prisoner distributes meal trays through a ground-level hatch at the bottom of each cell door.

His single-occupancy cell is austere, measuring just 7 square meters (75 square feet), with a squat toilet beneath a shower. Inmates are not allowed to have furniture, so there’s no bed or anything to sit on.

It is also steam-bath hot year-round in Singapore’s tropical climate, where maximum daily temperatures regularly rise above 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit).

The effect of extreme heat on prisoners has become more of a concern around the world as temperatures rise due to climate change.

“You will notice that there aren’t any fans or aircon,” Matthew explains. “There are some periods of time where it’s unbearable.”

Asked whether the threat of the death penalty had any deterrent effect on his drug dealing, Matthew says, “I would like to say yes.”

“But the truth is at that point in time I wasn’t thinking about it. In fact, I was actively avoiding the whole issue of consequences.”

‘Captains of life’

The prison’s deliberately harsh conditions contrast sharply with abundant emotional wellness messaging in the facility’s common areas.

The workshop, where prisoners pack anti-dandruff shampoo and instant coffee for a small salary, is plastered with motivational quotes from luminaries such as Steve Jobs and Nelson Mandela.

Cartoon characters and photos of waterfalls decorate classrooms where prisoners get lessons in anger management and job training.

Officials from the Singapore Prison Service say they encourage guards to think of themselves as “Captains of Life,” helping rehabilitate the prison population.

From an air-conditioned room known as “the fish tank,” they monitor inmates on live feeds from dozens of security cameras positioned around the prison.

Reuben Leong, the officer in charge of the correctional unit, says the job is not without risk. Violent incidents – usually fights between inmates – take place every few weeks, he says.

“There will be periods of time where they can be demanding, they can be rude, they can be hostile to you,” he adds.

The Yellow Ribbon Project is a government program aimed at rehabilitating former convicts, with job placement and community engagement.

Despite these efforts, Singaporean officials say roughly one in five former prisoners will likely end up back behind bars within two years. By comparison, one in three return to prison within two years in the United States, which has some of the highest recidivism rates in the world.

Meanwhile, there is no rehabilitation for death row inmates.

Singapore executed 11 prisoners by hanging in 2022, and five last year, according to the latest figures. All were convicted of drug charges.

‘Give my son a second chance’

Outside the prison walls, relatives of death row inmates hold an agonizing vigil awaiting the fate of their loved ones.

Halinda binte Ismail has a shock of bleach blond hair and sports a small stud in her left nostril.

By her count, the 61-year-old has been in prison at least seven times, always for drugs. Halinda says she was just 12 when she first smoked heroin.

Her last arrest was in 2017, when police raided the building where she lived with her eldest son, Muhammed Izwan bin Borhan.

Both mother and son were convicted for narcotics. But while Halinda ended up serving five years, her son was sentenced to death after police caught him with six packets of meth and heroin, according to court documents.  He is still in prison, awaiting execution.

“I’m very angry with why the government doesn’t give [my son] a chance to change his life,” Halinda says.

“I always pray to the government ‘give my son a second chance.’”

Halinda is now part of a small movement of activists seeking to ban Singapore’s death penalty.

“It’s not solving anything, and it’s just disproportionately used against some of the most marginalized and weakest people in society,” says Kirsten Han, a journalist and activist with the Transformative Justice Collective, who lobbies on behalf of death row inmates.

“I just feel like it’s very morally wrong.”

Han’s outspoken criticism of Singapore’s system of executions has won her the personal enmity of Shanmugam, the Home Affairs minister.

However, Shanmugam confirms one of Han’s observations.

Among more than 40 inmates he says are currently on death row, most are in the “lower social-economic category.”

One of the 11 prisoners executed in 2022 for drug offenses was Nazeri bin Lajim.

“I was hoping that they [would] give him the life sentence, but they literally hanged my brother,” says his surviving sister Nazira.

Nazira says her brother was a life-long drug addict, but not a violent man.

She shows a series of portraits in her phone of Nazeri, dressed in a brightly printed T-shirt, smiling and holding up a victory sign for the camera.

Before each execution, authorities organize a professional photo shoot in which inmates trade their prison uniforms for civilian clothes.

Nazira doesn’t appreciate the gesture.

“It’s fake happiness,” she says.

She says she is encouraging her adult children to leave Singapore permanently to emigrate to Australia.

War on drugs

Singaporean officials point to surveys that show overwhelming public support for the government’s war on drugs.

In public appearances, Shanmugam often highlights public drug use on the streets of European and American cities to justify Singapore’s approach to the problem.

But it may be more fitting to compare Singapore’s record with Hong Kong, another former British colony that has a zero-tolerance approach to drugs.

Hong Kong’s population is around 25% larger than Singapore’s, and it does not impose the death penalty for drug offenses.

Yet despite its considerably larger population, Hong Kong made 3,406 drug arrests in 2023 – just a few hundred more than the 3,101 drug arrests in Singapore.

And according to Shanmugam, drug arrests in Singapore surged 10% in 2023 – suggesting that perhaps the threat of death is failing to act as a deterrent to crime.

“It’s a fight that you never say you’ve won,” Shanmugam says.

“It’s a continuous work in progress.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

With the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, many Israelis are sensing a window of opportunity to bring back the hostages still held in Gaza – and they are making their voices heard.

Huge crowds of protesters gathered across several cities in Israel on Saturday, demanding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government make the return of the hostages their top priority — something they believe has not been the case so far.

Sinwar was a hardliner with little interest in negotiating with Israel. The US, which mediated the talks in Cairo, has repeatedly accused him of being one of the main blockers of a ceasefire deal.

His demise could pave the way to a ceasefire agreement. But getting there will depend on Netanyahu.

The prime minister has long been trying to balance the demands of his far-right coalition partners, who seem dead-set on refusing any kind of deal with Hamas, with the increasingly loud calls from Israel’s Western allies, including the US, who are pressuring him to strike an agreement and bring the war in Gaza to an end.

Now he is once again facing large-scale protests calling for him to act.

“There’s a solid majority and a consensus in the Israeli society on this, 105 hostages have (already) been brought back in a deal,” he said, in a reference to the week-long ceasefire and hostage exchange that took place in November.

There are 101 hostages still held in Gaza, Israeli authorities say. As many as one-third of them are thought to be dead.

But Nissan said he believed Netanyahu’s government had a reason for prolonging the war.

“(A ceasefire) is not in their interest because they know that once the war is over, they will have to answer questions about how they were complicit in (the security failures that led to the) October 7 (attacks), and that there is going to be a national inquiry, and that there is going to be a demand for elections, and in any poll that you see right now, they’re going to be hit hard,” he said.

Netanyahu has not outlined any strategy on how to capitalize on Sinwar’s death, saying only that Israel will continue to fight “until the victory.”

“This is the beginning of the day after Hamas. Evil has suffered a heavy blow, but the task before us is not yet complete,” he said.

For Yoni Levy, the only victory would be the return of his daughter Naama from Gaza. She had been serving as a lookout, observing the Gaza Strip from the Nahal Oz military base, when Hamas stormed the area and kidnapped her.

Images of her being loaded onto a truck, barefoot and badly beaten, her gray sweatpants soaked in blood, became symbols of the brutality of the October 7 attack.

Yoni Levy said the death of Sinwar had given the government an opportunity to act.

“This is the time for the prime minister to take the deal, even if we need to stop the war for some time, even if we have to release some of the murderous people from their side, now is the time to take the extra steps which we did not agree to take before,” he said.

For Levy, this particular protest was special. Dozens of women, who had either known Naama or served in a similar military role as her, gathered at the square to call for her release. They wore the same clothes as Naama had on October 7 and used red paint on their bodies to symbolize the injuries she sustained in the attack.

The woman who came up with the idea, Amit Frid, said Naama should already “be home.”

When Hamas confirmed Sinwar’s death on Friday, the group said it would not free its remaining hostages until Israel ended the war, fully withdrew from Gaza, and released Palestinian prisoners. Similarly, Netanyahu too vowed to keep fighting.

But in a hint that he is willing to talk, shortly after Sinwar’s death was announced, Netanyahu made a direct offer to anyone holding hostages in Gaza, saying that whoever lay down their arms and returned hostages to Israel would be let go alive.

Shira Efron, a security expert from the Israel Policy Forum, said the window of opportunity to act could be small, given that Hamas would get a new formal leader soon.

“Terrorists tend to be pretty fungible. You always find new ones,” she said, adding that Sinwar’s younger brother Mohammed, a hardliner who is believed to be just as ruthless as Yahya, was among the top contenders.

She said that Israel needed to figure out quickly who to talk to – and provide avenues for those who wanted to reach out.

“Let’s just say that someone is convinced that this is the time to lay down their arms and give in, or provide information about a hostage in return for amnesty or a cash award, who do they even call now?,” she asked.

Some of the hostages may not even be held by Hamas, having been taken by other groups and individuals and it is these people that Israel is trying to appeal to now.

Over the weekend, the Israeli military began dropping leaflets featuring a photo of Sinwar’s lifeless body in Gaza promising free passage to anyone who helped to return the hostages.

Next to it, a call out: “Sinwar destroyed your lives … Hamas will not govern Gaza anymore. Finally, the opportunity has come for you to be liberated from its tyranny. Whoever lays down their weapon and returns the abductees to us, we will allow them to leave and live in peace.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Britain’s King Charles and Queen Camilla met large, cheering crowds in Sydney after attending a church service on Sunday, the first event of their Australia tour.

The royal couple were greeted at St Thomas’ Anglican Church by the archbishop of Sydney, Kanishka Raffel, and children from the church’s Sunday school who waved Australian flags.

Camilla, wearing a pale green Anna Valentine dress and straw hat, was given a flower bouquet by the minister’s wife, Ellie Mantle, who asked if they had recovered from jet lag after the long flight to Australia on Friday. “Sort of,” Camilla replied.

Inside the church, Charles and Camilla signed two bibles, including one that belonged to Australia’s first minister and chaplain of the First Fleet of ships that took convicts from Britain to the penal colony of Australia in 1788.

Outside, the royal couple shook hands and chatted with families and cheering fans, some singing “God Save the King,” who lined the streets around the church, the public’s first opportunity to meet Charles and Camilla since they arrived in Australia’s biggest city on Friday night.

Traveling across Sydney Harbour, Charles visited the New South Wales parliament, marking the 200th anniversary of Australia’s oldest legislature.

The king presented the lawmakers with an hour glass to time their speeches, and highlighted the fundamental role of strong parliaments to democracy.

“What a great joy it is to come to Australia for the first time as sovereign and to renew a love of this country and its people which I have cherished for so long,” he said.

Charles is making his inaugural visit to an overseas realm as sovereign and his first major foreign trip since being diagnosed with cancer.

He will attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Samoa after the six-day Australia tour.

Charles had made a significant personal donation to create a skills program to tackle climate change and boost higher education in small island states, including the Pacific Islands, the Association of Commonwealth Universities said on Sunday.

“Throughout my life I have believed in the power of education to improve lives and unite communities across the Commonwealth and beyond,” he said in a statement.

Mid-career professionals and civil servants will benefit from the fellowships, in a program that aims to retain talent in small island states and bolster resilience to the impacts of climate change such as rising sea levels.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

One year after his election victory sparked a rare round of relief and optimism among Europe’s establishment, Poland’s leader made a startling announcement.

Donald Tusk, a former European Union Council president whose longstanding ties to Brussels have cast him as both a savior and a scapegoat in Poland’s toxic political landscape, said on Saturday he planned to temporarily halt the right to claim asylum in Poland – adding he’d fight the EU on the matter if he needed to.

“It is our right and our duty to protect the Polish and European border. Its security will not be negotiated. With anyone,” Tusk wrote on social media, in language more typically associated with the authoritarian populist bloc he defeated one year ago this week.

The move, unleashed for maximum impact on that anniversary, came in response to an intractable crisis at the Polish border with Belarus, which Europe says is fueled by Russia. At the same time, it seemed to fly in the face of one of the EU’s founding principles – and Tusk’s uncompromising tone took Europe by surprise.

But perhaps it shouldn’t have. Increasingly, Europe’s centrist figureheads are dropping their once-high-minded rhetoric on irregular migration, reaching instead for positions that were previously the preserve of the continent’s populist rabble-rousers.

Border checks at all of Germany’s frontiers were introduced last month. France’s new interior minister has hinted that immigration curbs are imminent. Both countries have been unsettled in recent months by high-profile murders in which migrants were identified as suspects, and by a surge in support for far-right parties.

Across the continent, countries are looking with serious interest at Italy’s controversial new agreement to ship migrants to Albania, which began this week.

And while European leaders expressed a catalog of competing concerns about a tenuous EU migration pact during a summit in Brussels on Thursday, those advocating for a more welcoming approach – like Spain’s Pedro Sanchez – were conspicuously outnumbered.

Tusk has the political capital in Europe to push the issue, and is keenly aware that the question of illegal migration can sink a centrist government if ground is ceded to the far-right. French President Emmanuel Macron narrowly avoided that outcome this summer and Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz is slipping behind the far-right AfD in opinion polls.

In Poland, like in much of Europe, “voters across the board expect that border security and migration controls are the priority,” Kucharczyk said. “There is very little room for maneuver for any politician.”

A Russia-fueled crisis

But later that day, leaders instead expressed “solidarity” with Poland, and paved a path towards tougher bloc-wide measures, writing: “Exceptional situations require appropriate measures.”

The Belarus situation is certainly exceptional. Belarus has long been accused of encouraging migrants to reach the Polish border, at the behest of its ally Russia, in the hopes of exposing cracks in the EU’s border-free principles and common asylum system.

But Thursday’s victory for Tusk in Brussels underscores a broader, rightward shift across Europe on the issue of irregular migration. The continent’s new vocabulary includes concepts like external “return hubs” to which asylum seekers are sent – a fringe idea just two years ago that now holds serious weight.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Scholz, as well as Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer – the continent’s centrist flagbearers, each at one time hailed as counterweights to anti-migrant populism – have scrambled over each other to emphasize the consideration and thought they are giving to Italy’s arrangement with Albania.

Its architect, Italy’s right-wing leader Giorgia Meloni, was expected to be something of an outcast on the European stage when she took office two years ago. Now, more and more leaders are sounding more and more like Meloni.

European arrivals are in fact coming down; there have been around 140,000 this year, compared to a seven-year high of around 275,000 last year.

But instability and displacement in the Middle East, the success of populist parties in virtually every part of the continent this year and a number of violent attacks allegedly committed by migrants – which have been quickly pounced upon by right-wing politicians, sometimes aided by a flow of misinformation – mean that the potency of the topic is only mounting.

Scholz looks on enviably as the far-right surges

Still, if Europe is heading in the same direction on illegal migration, it remains disunited.

A long-awaited new EU migration pact, aimed at sharing the burden of processing asylum claims more evenly across the bloc, has been picked apart from various angles by the 27 leaders. Some want it implemented sooner; others, including Tusk, have said they won’t accept relocated asylum seekers.

There is an evergreen issue at the heart of Europe’s latest divide; it is made up of 27 leaders who each have their own, domestic audiences at the front of their minds. But all of them have learned by now that public anger towards increasing legal and illegal migration is an indelible political force.

In Poland, Tusk is attempting to bend it towards his will. The veteran of centrist politics has banked some credit with voters one year after his election victory, but the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party he ousted last October remains a dangerous force, and its attacks on Tusk are primarily two-pronged: that he is a stooge of Brussels, and weak on the border.

There are caveats to Tusk’s plan. It is more targeted towards the Belarus border crisis than the initial language suggested; it is not immediate and its path to becoming law is tenuous. It is not entirely new – Finland has pursued a similar plan this year – and it is an escalation of, not a break with, Tusk’s stance on border security, which has always centered on efforts to repel the massing crowds in Belarus.

But tellingly, most of those details were missing from the prime minister’s initial announcement. “Tusk amplified the message (on asylum) on purpose to get attention,” Kucharczyk said. “The migration and security narrative was something that PiS has been using very successfully over the years; now Tusk has stolen it from them, and turned it against them.”

Tusk will hope this gambit sets the table for May’s election to succeed Poland’s PiS-aligned, veto-happy president – a contest that is absolutely pivotal to the government’s legislative hopes. “It’s an existential issue for this coalition, and they don’t want to take chances on issues like migration,” Kucharczyk said.

Scholz may be looking on enviably. Tusk has staked out a hardline position on the border before the issue tanks his popularity, but for the German leader, it may already be too late.

Scholz, whose SPD party is on course to lose power next year, has been slow to react to public anger, ignited most recently by a fatal stabbing in the western city of Solingen. The suspect was identified as a 26-year-old Syrian man with alleged links to ISIS, who had been due for deportation.

Days later, the AfD scored the first far-right state election victory in the country since the Nazi era – a breakthrough that spooked Europe.

That context informed Scholz’s sudden move to introduce checks at Germany’s western borders, in addition to checks that had already existed on its eastern flank. Hungary and Slovakia have made similar moves.

The wider question is whether the longstanding principles of the border-free Schengen Area can survive an enduring era of rising migration and populist subversion.

Its answer may depend, in part, on how successfully Europe’s current crop of centrists can take the fight on migration to their populist rivals – and whether they can maintain a reputation for moderation while doing so.

On that, Tusk seems willing to chart the course. But from the left, there are risks. “Tusk’s voters may applaud the security dimension (of his asylum plan),” Kucharczyk said. “But they will also want to see how (he) is different from the hard right.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Israel has been on the receiving end of scathing criticism from European leaders who are trying to restrain the Jewish state from pressing on with its wars in Gaza and southern Lebanon.

From calls for a complete halt of weapons sales to Israel and considering sanctions on far-right Israeli ministers, to talks among EU members on reviewing Israel’s Association Agreement with the bloc, European leaders are trying to use their leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into negotiating ceasefires.

Adding impetus to their effort is the fact Israeli military strikes are now hitting UN peacekeeping bases in southern Lebanon, which house European troops.

The bloc’s position is starkly different to what experts described as unwavering support for Israel from European states on October 7 last year, when Hamas-led militants killed more than 1,200 people in Israel and took more than 250 others hostage.

But as Israel’s retaliation against Hamas morphed into what critics call a “forever war,” killing more than 42,000 people in Gaza, according to Gaza’s health ministry, European countries have sought to distance themselves from the Jewish state.

The rising European criticism comes as the United States appears either unable or unwilling to put significant pressure on Israel just weeks ahead of the presidential election in November, experts said.

“There is a lot of frustration, in western European capitals at least, with how the US has managed diplomacy over the last year,” Lovatt said, adding that some EU states felt the US should have done more to “moderate and constrain Israeli actions.”

Last weekend, the Biden administration sent a letter to the Israeli government demanding it act to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza within the next 30 days or risk violating US laws governing foreign military assistance.

In veiled criticism on Thursday, the European Union’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell said that too many people could die in that time.

“The US has been saying to Israel that they have to improve humanitarian support to Gaza, but they gave one month delay,” the EU foreign policy chief told reporters ahead of a leaders’ summit, according to Reuters. “One month delay at the current pace of people being killed. It’s too many people,” Borrell said.

Lebanon war ‘tipped things over the edge’

Relations were initially strained because of Israel’s assault in Gaza, Lovatt said, “which is seen by many European governments, including those who are still supportive of Israel, as having been disproportionate and in contradiction to international law.”

Israel’s ground operation against the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in southern Lebanon may have “tipped things over the edge” for many European states, Lovatt said. European reproach of Israel reached new levels when Israeli military strikes began hitting posts of the UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon. The mission, UNIFIL, has been stationed there since 1978 and is made up of 50 nationalities, including troops from Spain, Ireland, Italy and France.

Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, director of the Israel-Europe Relations Program at the Mitvim think tank in Jerusalem, said that “when it comes to defending their own soldiers,” European states tend to be more vocal.

The UN has said Israel’s military has fired on its peacekeepers multiple times in recent weeks, injuring more than a dozen. Israeli forces also forcibly entered a base, and stopped a critical logistical movement, the UN said.

Israel has said it has no intention of harming the UN’s peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon but accused Hezbollah of using UNIFIL personnel as human shields. Netanyahu has warned that UN peacekeeping forces in Lebanon are in “harm’s way,” and called on UN Secretary-General António Guterres to get them out “immediately.”

The diplomatic spat between Israel and some European leaders burst into the open this week.

In remarks that drew a sharp response from Israel, French President Emmanuel Macron was quoted as saying in a cabinet meeting Tuesday that “Netanyahu must not forget that his country was created by a decision of the UN,” according to the Paris-based Agence France-Presse (AFP). Macron was referring to UN Resolution 181, known as the Partition Plan, which paved the way for Israel’s creation in 1948.

“Therefore, this is not the time to disregard the decisions of the UN,” Macron added, according to AFP. The French president had earlier called for the complete suspension of the sale to Israel of arms used in the war in Gaza, while stressing France has not been involved in their supply.

In a statement Tuesday, Netanyahu said that “it was not a UN decision… but the victory that was achieved in the War of Independence with the blood of our heroic fighters” that created the State of Israel, adding that many of those fighters “were Holocaust survivors, including from the Vichy regime in France.”

Netanyahu added that the UN has “in recent decades… approved hundreds of antisemitic decisions” against Israel, with the purpose of denying the Jewish state the “right to exist and its ability to defend itself.”

Israel has repeatedly accused the UN, and Guterres, of antisemitism and this week designated the UN chief as persona non grata and banned him from entering Israel. The EU’s Borrell condemned the decision, calling the accusations of antisemitism against Guterres “slanderous.”

The EU and UK consider Hamas a terrorist organization and have repeatedly condemned its actions since October 7. The EU has also sanctioned the military wing of Hezbollah.

‘We have blocked everything’

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also condemned Israel’s actions in Lebanon, including an Israeli military strike that hit a UN peacekeeping base where around 1,100 Italian troops are stationed.

“We defend Israel’s right to live in peace and security, but we reiterate the need for this to happen in compliance with international humanitarian law,” Meloni said Tuesday.

Italy is the third largest supplier of arms to Israel, providing the Jewish state with helicopters and guns, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). However, following the start of the war in Gaza, Italy suspended all new export licenses and canceled any agreements signed after October 7, Meloni was quoted as saying Tuesday by Italian state news agency ANSA.

This policy is “much more restrictive than that applied by our partners – France, Germany and United Kingdom,” Meloni said, according to ANSA. “We have blocked everything.”

Among the harshest critics of Israel have been the Irish and Spanish leaders, who have called on the EU to review its Association Agreement with Israel, saying the Jewish state is breaching the trade deal’s human rights clause in its Gaza war. Last week, Borrell said the issue would be discussed in the Foreign Affairs Council, as there is “enough evidence” to merit the discussion.

Changing the agreement would hurt Israel, Sion-Tzidkiyahu said, especially if trade is affected. The EU is Israel’s biggest trade partner, with trade between Israel and the bloc totaling $50.7 billion (€46.8 billion) in 2022, according to EU data.

In an earlier move that protested Israel’s war in Gaza, Spain, Ireland and Norway formally recognized Palestinian statehood in May. While no longer a member of the EU, Britain has also sought to restrain Israel’s behavior, most recently by considering sanctions on far-right Israeli ministers.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Wednesday that his government was “looking at” sanctions against Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Meanwhile, David Cameron, who served as British foreign secretary under the previous government until July, told Sky News on Wednesday that he had planned to sanction the two ministers during his time in office, with the intention that it would show Israel that, while the UK supported the right to self-defense, “we do want you to try and obey humanitarian law.”

Both Ben Gvir and Smotrich rejected Starmer’s comments. Ben Gvir accused the UK of working to “prevent” the establishment of the Jewish state. “The British must realize that the days of the mandate are over,” Ben Gvir’s spokesperson said in a statement, referring to the British administration of Palestine between 1917 and 1947.

Last month, the UK suspended 30 of its 350 arms export licenses with Israel over risks of such weapons being used to commit serious violations of international humanitarian law. The decision was rebuked by Israeli officials.

German support

Experts said the EU is not a homogenous bloc, however, and its members have voiced varying degrees of criticism of Israel.

When it comes to Israel, Germany is often the exception to European policy. Berlin is the second-largest supplier of weapons to Israel after the US, contributing some 30% of Israel’s arms as of 2023. On Wednesday, the news agency DPA reported that, in the past eight weeks, the German government had approved military equipment and munitions exports to Israel worth €31 million ($33.7 million). That is more than twice as much as during the rest of the year, DPA said.

On Thursday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his country would continue supplying weapons to Israel.

German politicians have repeatedly stated that Israel’s security is Germany’s “reason of state.” This term is a reference to Germany’s special relationship with Israel due to its Nazi past, which saw the German state systematically murder 6 million Jews in the Holocaust. This genocide profoundly shaped the country’s policymaking.

Despite the recent tensions with the wider bloc, Sion-Tzidkiyahu said the EU’s relations with Israel “are still very strong” and remain “important to Israel.” They have not caused material harm yet, she said, but risk “taking away the legitimacy under Israel’s seat.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

S&P 500 and Nasdaq: New Targets and Support Levels

  • During this morning’s Asian trading session, the S&P 500 finds support at the 5840.0 level
  • The Nasdaq gained new support this morning at the 20200.0 level

S&P 500 chart analysis

During this morning’s Asian trading session, the S&P 500 finds support at the 5840.0 level. Additional support in that zone is the EMA 50 moving average, which influenced the index to remain stable. In the EU session, we climbed up to $5860.0, and we expect a continuation of the bullish side in the US session. On Thursday, October 17, the S&P 500 created a new all-time high at 5882.5. We managed to break above the previous high from Monday, October 14.

All signs indicate that we can expect a continuation of the bullish consolidation. Potential higher targets are 5880.0 and 5900.0 levels. If the current bullish momentum decreases, the S&P 500 could turn to the bearish side. After that, we will see a pullback below the 5840.0 level and the EMA 50 moving average. Since we lost the previous support, we must continue the retreat and look for a new one at lower levels. Potential lower targets are 5820.0 and 5800.0 levels.

 

Nasdaq chart analysis

The Nasdaq gained new support this morning at the 20200.0 level. With the support of the EMA 200 moving average, we quickly moved back above the weekly open level to the positive side and continued to the daily high at 20315.0. The index at 20250.0 forms a higher low and thus confirms determination for further recovery to the bullish side. Potential higher targets are 20350.0 and 20400.0 levels.

If there is a reduction in the bullish momentum again, the Nasdaq will have to start a new pullback. We are again forced to test the weekly open level and the support of the EMA 200 moving average. This time, we need a break of the index below to a new daily low as a confirmation of bearish momentum. Potential lower targets are 20150.0 and 20100.0 levels. This week’s Nasdaq low was at 20042.0.

 

The post S&P 500 and Nasdaq: New Targets and Support Levels appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) has struggled as a business over the past few years and isn’t on many investors’ radars these days. However, Disney seems to have turned a corner last quarter and is positioned for a resurgence in its core theme parks and streaming businesses.

With consumer spending in the travel sector remaining robust, demand for Disney’s theme parks is increasing. Additionally, Disney+ is on track to become profitable by Q4, and the inclusion of ESPN could further enhance Disney’s edge in the streaming space. These factors provide upside potential for Disney’s stock price, particularly as the company recovers from recent challenges and realigns its strategic focus.

Disney’s stock price has recently broken above its trading range, pulled back, and bounced off its $92 support level (see chart below). This suggests there is momentum to target $102 to the upside and $113 as an extended target to the upside.

FIGURE 1. DISNEY’S STOCK PRICE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE HIGHER. An improving relative performance and moving average convergence/divergence support a potential higher price move in Disney.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purpose.

With the relative performance of DIS to the S&P 500 ($SPX) improving and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) showing signs of strengthening, this confirms the upside potential as DIS potentially breaks out above its $97.50 resistance.

Disney stock appears modestly undervalued, trading at 18x forward earnings, slightly below the industry average. Its expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 14.5% aligns with the industry average, while its revenue growth forecast of 4% aligns with its peers. However, Disney’s net margins of 5% surpass the industry average of 3%, indicating a stronger outlook on profitability, especially with anticipated improvements from its streaming business and sustained demand in its theme parks.

Options on DIS are expensive, with the IV rank at 67%. So, to capitalize on a potential major breakout for DIS, I suggest buying a December $95/$110 call vertical for $5.09 debit.


A call vertical involves buying a call option and selling another with a higher strike price. The two options have the same expiration date.


FIGURE 2. CALL VERTICAL ANALYSIS. Here, you see the cost of the trade, the risk curve, and the risk/reward tradeoff of the call vertical for DIS. Image source: OptionsPlay.

This structure allows an offset for the relatively expensive Dec $95 call options and reduces the overall risk by selling the $110 calls. This structure entails:

  • Buying the Dec 20 $95 Call @ $6.25
  • Selling the Dec 20 $110 Call @ $1.16

 This call vertical spread allows for a maximum reward of $991 per contract if DIS is above $110 at expiration, with a maximum risk of $509 if DIS is below $95 at expiration.

In this week’s RRG video, I shared my concerns about the current market conditions. The sector rotation model and current sector rotation, as we see it on the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors, are sending us conflicting signals. This combination continues to make me cautious about fully buying into the rally with new positions.

Being fully-invested is too risky at the moment (for me).

My current approach is that the risk of being fully invested in the market right now, or even buying into it, is too high for my comfort. Instead, I suggest we focus on identifying individual stocks or industries that present profit opportunities for long positions.

Dow Jones Industrials: Finding the Right Stocks

I haven’t blogged about individual stocks for a while, especially not about the members of the Dow Jones Industrials. Thus, I thought it would be beneficial to examine the constituents of the Dow Jones Industrials Index to find suitable candidates for long positions.

Outliers on the RRG

When you look at the RRG holding the Dow Jones Industrial Stocks, two real outliers catch the eye. The first is Intel (INTC), which is in the lagging quadrant and experiencing a significant hiccup in relative momentum. The second outlier is 3M (MMM), located in the weakening quadrant and rapidly losing relative momentum. If removed from the equation, these two stocks allow us to see a more balanced distribution of stocks across the various quadrants.

Positive RRG Headings

My next step is to toggle over all the individual stocks and highlight those with a positive RRG heading between 0 and 90 degrees. This indicates that a stock is gaining relative strength against the Dow Jones Industrials and is supported by positive momentum.

With this filter, we see two stocks in the lagging quadrant on a positive heading: Amazon and Honeywell. Four stocks are inside the improving quadrant, and they seem to be continuing their improvement: DIS, NKE, CRM, and V.

Concentrating on the Leading Quadrant

The leading quadrant has a higher concentration of stocks on a positive heading, and that’s where I want to focus our attention. After reviewing the individual charts of these stocks, I’ve identified a few worth a closer look and might be considered for adding to a portfolio.

The Strong Performers: TRV, WMT, and AXP

Travelers (TRV), Walmart (WMT), and American Express (AXP) are showing very strong charts in terms of price and relative strength. However, they’ve had such a long run that I wouldn’t recommend chasing them higher. The same goes for American Express (AXP). If you already hold these stocks, they are a great “hold,” but I wouldn’t initiate new positions.

The Top Three Picks

Now, let’s talk about the three stocks that stand out as potential additions to our portfolio.

Caterpillar (CAT)

Caterpillar’s price has just broken above the previous high at $380 and is consolidating. As long as it stays above $380, it has a good chance of continuing its uptrend. The RRG lines have turned up and are both above 100, indicating a positive RRG heading.

Cisco (CSCO)

Cisco bottomed out around $44 and has climbed to its previous high of around $56. It’s now breaking above that resistance, which is a positive sign.

The next target is the late December 2021 peak, just below $60. The relative strength is picking up again, confirmed by both RRG lines pushing above the 100 level. Once that barrier is taken out, a lot of upside potential for CSCO will be unlocked.

Home Depot (HD)

Home Depot has broken above resistance around $390, formed by two peaks in late 2021 and March 2024. The stock confirms a new uptrend with the RRG lines pushing above 100. We could see significant upside potential when the raw RS line surpasses its previous high from March 2024.

By measuring the height of the range from $260 to $390, we can project a rough price target of $520 for Home Depot to be reached within the next two years, as long as the support around $390 holds.

Remember, it’s not about chasing the market; it’s about making informed decisions based on solid analysis.

#StayAlert and have a great weekend, –Julius


Despite a light economic data week, the stock market continued its rally, with the S&P 500 ($SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closing at record highs. How many times have we heard that? This is the sixth positive week for the three indexes.

Strong earnings from big banks, Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) injected optimistic energy into the stock market.

Tech Stocks Hold Steady

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) may not have hit all-time highs, but its daily chart is worth a closer look. An ascending triangle formation has reached its apex, indicating indecision among investors. The breadth indicators in the lower panels below the price chart echo this indecision.

CHART 1. NASDAQ COMPOSITE CONVERGING AT TRIANGLE APEX. The Nasdaq Composite seems to be at a point of indecision. This could continue until Tech stocks report quarterly earnings.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is trending higher but is registering at 57.76, which is slightly bullish. The percentage of Nasdaq stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is also lukewarm, and the Nasdaq advance-decline line isn’t showing strong bullish participation.

Investors are probably waiting for Tech earnings. Until then, the index will probably stay put unless some unknown market-moving event occurs before then. The indecision in Tech stocks isn’t stopping investors from shifting to other areas of the market.

Mid-Caps Might Flatten

The S&P 400 Mid Cap Index ($MID) broke out of its trading range in September and has been trading above it since then. The index hit an all-time high this week, but has started to show signs of flattening (see last two bars in chart below).

CHART 2. MID-CAP STOCKS BREAK OUT OF RANGE. After hitting an all-time high, the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is stalling.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The percentage of $MID stocks above their 200-day moving average is 73, which is pretty healthy. The advances still need higher volume to push the index higher. Until that happens, the mid-cap asset class may stall.

Bitcoin Breaks Out, Gold Glitters

Bitcoin has also shown its might this week. The weekly chart shows Bitcoin breaking out of a flag pattern (see below).

CHART 3. BITCOIN BREAKS OUT OF A CONSOLIDATION PATTERN. A breakout plus a possible MACD crossover could send Bitcoin prices higher. Note that the crossover is close to the zero line, an encouraging sign.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

After hitting the measured move targets following the previous consolidation, $BTCUSD has been in an extended consolidation pattern and has finally broken out. A bullish crossover in the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) could occur. The crossover is close to the zero line, a criterion I look for. Look at what happened to the price of Bitcoin the last time a crossover took place at the zero line! Bitcoin could move higher by about 42.5%.

Speaking of all-time highs, gold prices are on fire. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has been in an uptrend since early March, and central bank interest rate cuts have propelled gold prices higher (see chart below).

CHART 4. GOLD PRICES ON A TEAR THIS YEAR. GLD has been following a typical uptrend, going through consolidations, breaking out of them, and continuing its ride higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

GLD could potentially rise above $250, but it’s difficult to set an entry point unless there’s a pullback. If you are considering going long now, apply stringent stop losses.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow is estimating a 3.4% growth in Q3 2024. This has led investors to think the Fed will not cut interest rates in its November meeting. However, the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 92.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut. So, if there’s a rate cut in November, GLD could rise higher. This can change though, considering we’re less than three weeks away from the meeting, which happens to be right after the U.S. presidential election.

Looking Forward

Next week is thin on economic data, but earnings season continues. It’s not a strong week for Tech earnings, so the Nasdaq could continue its indecisive price action. As for the rest of the market, there could be more of the same. As always, anything could happen over the weekend that could send things awry.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 closed up 0.85% for the week, at 5864.67, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.96% for the week at 43,275.91; Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.80% for the week at 18,489.55
  • $VIX down 11.88% for the week, closing at 18.03
  • Best performing sector for the week: Utilities
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Insmed Inc. (INSM); Carvana (CVNA); Ubiquiti, Inc. (UI); Applovin Corp (APP); Cava Group, Inc. (CAVA)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Fed speeches
  • September Existing Home Sales
  • September New Home Sales
  • Earnings from Tesla (TSLA), General Motors (GM), Verizon Communications (VZ), Coca Cola (KO), among others

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.