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October 26, 2024

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The US is Not the Only Stock Market in the World

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The global stock market is a big place, and it extends far beyond the borders of the United States. While the US market is undeniably the largest and often sets the pace for others, it’s revealing to step back and consider the global scene occasionally. This broader perspective can alert investors to significant shifts in stock market rotations worldwide, particularly when the US market has marched off on its own.

Current International Rotations

The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) for international markets above plots several international stock market indices and benchmarks them against the Dow Jones Global Index ($DJW).

The S&P 500 ($SPX) is positioned very close to the center of the chart, hugging the benchmark. This proximity is expected, given that the US constitutes a hefty portion of the Dow Jones Global Index. However, the S&P 500 is also depicted with a short tail within the weakening quadrant, indicating a renewed up-move within the already rising relative trend.

Asian Markets Are Strong

Shifting our focus from the US, we observe several well-defined and robust relative trends in other markets. The Hang Seng Index ($HSI) in Hong Kong stands out, with its tail moving from the lagging quadrant through improving and into the leading quadrant over the last five weeks. This is the longest tail on the RRG, suggesting a powerful move with a positive RRG heading and the highest RS momentum and ratio readings.

Other markets showing positive trends include China ($SSEC) and Japan ($NIKK), both of which have transitioned from the lagging to the improving quadrant. This shift indicates a relative strength and momentum pickup, hinting at likely outperformance in the coming weeks.

Conversely, the Russian ($MOEX) and Korean ($KOSPI) stock market indices are picking up relative momentum but remain within the lagging quadrant, continuing to underperform.

Where is the Money Flowing?

If we assume that global stock market money migrates to the most promising locations, we will notice outflows from certain markets. For instance, India’s CNX 500 has seen its tail move from the leading quadrant through weakening. It is rapidly approaching the lagging quadrant, signaling a shift to underperformance, particularly against the Asian markets and the S&P 500.

Several markets, including the Australian All Ordinaries Index ($AORD), the DJ Europe index ($E1DOW), the Brazilian Bovespa index ($BVSP), and the Mexican Bolsa Index ($MXX) exhibit negative headings closer to the benchmark. The Brazilian market, in particular, shows a long tail crossing into the lagging quadrant. At the same time, the Mexican Bolsa completed a rotation of lagging-improving-lagging at very low RS-ratio levels. This makes it one of the weaker and more dangerous markets from a relative perspective.

Hang Seng Index vs. Indian CNX 500

The Hang Seng Index and the Indian CNX 500 present contrasting trends.

After a prolonged decline, the $HSI has formed a broad trading range and is currently testing a significant resistance level. A break above this resistance could signal substantial upside potential, with relative strength indicators suggesting a bottoming out and a potential shift in trend.

In contrast, the Nifty 500 index in India has completed a toppish formation, with relative strength trending downward. This points to further underperformance and a negative price trajectory for the Indian market.

Zooming in on the daily chart of the Nifty 500 shows that an H&S top formation has just completed, signalling weakness not only from a relative perspective but also in terms of price.

S&P 500 vs. European Markets

The S&P 500 and European markets are also moving in opposite directions.

The Dow Jones Europe index has encountered resistance and shows a breakdown in relative strength versus the global benchmark, confirming a relative downtrend.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has broken to new highs in relative strength, affirming its relative uptrend.

Key Takeaways

From an international perspective, the Hang Seng index and the S&P 500 exhibit positive rotations, while the Nifty 500 and European markets are on a negative trajectory. It’s important to note that the strength of the S&P 500 does not guarantee its continued rise; it simply indicates that, at present, it is outperforming many other markets.

By analyzing relative strengths and rotations using Relative Rotation Graphs, investors can gain insights into where the markets may be heading vis-a-vis each other and make more informed decisions.

#StayAlert and have a great weekend, –Julius

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Why the S&P 500 Won’t Break 6000 (Yet)

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When I was growing up, I loved Choose Your Own Adventure books. I see the world in shades of gray instead of black-and-white, so I was immediately drawn to the seemingly endless scenarios that the main characters could experience as I made different choices for them.

As investors, we often get so caught up in one particular market narrative that we are unable to think “outside the box” and consider other possible outcomes. Successful investors I’ve worked with have been exceptionally good at looking at all the possibilities, challenging their own investment thesis by opening themselves up to other options.

Today, we’ll walk through four potential outcomes for the S&P 500 index over the next six to eight weeks. As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario.  

By the way, we ran through four scenarios for the S&P 500 back in July, and you may be surprised to see which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop a comment and let me know your vote and what you think will cause that scenario to play out.
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most bullish scenario, where the S&P 500 keeps going with a consistent pace and breaks above 6000 by early December.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

The S&P 500 has experienced a remarkably strong run off the low in early August. This first scenario would mean a continuation of the pace of the current trend, suggesting the SPX would remain above a trendline drawn from the August and September lows. This scenario would include the S&P breaking above 6000 for the first time, and by early December, we’d be wondering how we made it through an entire calendar year with the biggest drawdown sitting at just less than 10%.

Dave’s Vote: 5%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

Let’s say that Trump wins a second term, and investors see that as a fairly pro-business and pro-market outcome. At the same time, however, new economic data and the November Fed meeting leave investors a little skeptical of the Fed’s ability to navigate the soft landing scenario into early 2025.

The second scenario would mean we drift a bit higher, but breadth conditions break down as investors gravitate to Magnificent 7 stocks and other safe havens as the VIX pushes above 20. We don’t see a major correction into early December, but it still feels like one is just around the corner and everyone’s talking about overvaluations and a potential Q1 pullback.

Dave’s vote: 25%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

A Harris victory could certainly weigh on the markets as we progress through Q4, as we realize how much investors had been pricing in a Republican White House. Skepticism of the Fed reaches a fever pitch as we’re no longer talking about a potential soft landing, but rather when the next major correction will play out. Volume and breadth divergences that have been growing in October continue to play out, and a 2018-style Q4 drop becomes our reality in 2024.

Dave’s vote: 50%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

You always need a “doomsday” scenario, where things get bad and stay bad. What if the S&P 500 starts selling off as a frustrating earnings season leads into a contentious election and a November Fed meeting raises more questions than answers? Paul Tudor Jones famously remarked, “Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.” And in this scenario, that’s exactly what we’re facing in December as we wonder where how and why the normal Q4 rally is nowhere to be seen.

Dave’s vote: 20%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Election Season: Keep Calm and Optimize Your Portfolio

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Although earnings season is in full swing, trading volume has been relatively light this week. Perhaps investors are waiting for the stock market to show some direction. It could happen next week, one that’s jampacked with earnings and market-moving economic data, or the following week after the US election and Fed meeting.

A Bird’s-Eye View Of the Stock Market

Tesla’s upbeat Q3 earnings on Thursday juiced up the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), the laggard of the three US broad market indexes. This price action continued into Friday, with the Nasdaq reaching a record high. Sadly, it couldn’t hold on to it, but still managed to close higher by 0.56%. The S&P 500 ($SPX) and Dow Jones ($INDU) snapped their six-week winning streak, but the Nasdaq retained its seven-week winning streak.

Technology was the top-performing sector on Friday, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services (see the StockCharts MarketCarpets screenshot below). It looked like the stock market had regained its mojo for a little while, but the week ended without giving investors much of a sense of direction. Next week could be a different story, since most mega-cap Tech stocks will report quarterly earnings.

FIGURE 1. STOCKCHARTS MARKETCARPET, OCTOBER 25, 2024. Technology regained its top spot in sector performance on Friday. Next week is a big earnings week for technology companies. Will they impress or disappoint?Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The US dollar and precious metals traded higher this week. The 10-year US Treasury Yield Index ($TNX) bounced off its 200-day simple moving average and closed at 4.23% (see daily chart of $TNX below).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF 10-YEAR US TREASURY YIELD INDEX ($TNX). $TNX bounced off the 200-day moving average and moved higher. The rise in yields suggests investors are uncertain about near-term market direction.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Seeing gold, the US dollar, and Treasury yields rally simultaneously is unusual and is an indication of investor uncertainty. So far, the three seem to be holding on to their uptrends. Whenever there’s a slight pullback, they recover quickly and move higher, suggesting that these assets have momentum behind them. The chart below displays the US dollar ($USD), SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), and $TNX.

FIGURE 3. THE US DOLLAR, GOLD, AND YIELDS. Gold has been trending higher in 2024, whereas the US dollar and yields still display a series of lower highs and lower lows.Chart source: StockChartsACP. for educational purposes.

Even though the US dollar and 10-year yields are rising, they haven’t yet established an uptrend. Gold, on the other hand, has been on an upward trend in 2024. 

If you hold a long position in gold, ride the momentum, but know that it could dry up. It’s a good idea to start thinking about managing your position. Gold prices are looking extended, and with Treasury yields and the US dollar as high as they are, I would watch them closely for a reversal, as it could cause gold prices to fall.

Looking Forward

Next week, we will have some key economic data that could influence the Fed’s interest rate decision at their November 7 meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, a 25 basis point cut probability is 95.5%. This could change as economic data comes in next week. If the data supports a strengthening US economy, investors may think the Fed will not cut rates at the next meeting. This could give rise to fear, which in turn spikes volatility.

The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) closed higher, but is still relatively low at 20.33. Keep an eye on it, because even a little negative news could send it higher.

Next week is chock full of market-moving events. Earnings from mega-cap Tech and other large-cap companies, plus key economic data (see the End-of-Week Wrap-Up section below), are among them. If trading volatility remains anemic next week, then you know that investors are having the election jitters. You may have to wait another week for trading volume to pick up.

In the meantime, it’s best to exercise patience and focus more on managing your portfolio holdings. If you are going to add positions, keep your sizes small to minimize your risks. The stock market is vulnerable and could make large moves in either direction.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 closed down 0.96% for the week, at 5808.12, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.68% for the week at 42,114.40; Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.16% for the week at 18,690.01
  • $VIX up 12.76% for the week, closing at 20.33
  • Best performing sector for the week: Consumer Discretionary
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Materials
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Applovin Corp. (APP); Carvana (CVNA); Insmed Inc. (INSM); Ubiquiti, Inc. (UI); MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR)

On the Radar Next Week

  • September JOLTS Report
  • Q3 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
  • September PCE Price Index
  • October Jobs Report
  • October ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • Earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), AMD, Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Amazon, Inc. (AMZN), Apple Inc. (AAPL), McDonald’s Corp (MCD), Pfizer, Inc. (PFE), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), Microstrategy (MSTR), Carvana (CVNA), and many more.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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How to Trade Gaps Up (and Down) After Earnings

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In this StockCharts TV video, Mary Ellen shares how the markets trade right before the elections, and also reviews the move in Tesla (TSLA) after reporting earnings. She shares examples of what to watch for if your stock is due to report earnings – and what to do if it gaps down.

This video originally premiered October 25, 2024. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen on StockCharts TV.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

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The Future of Options Trading: Real-Time Technical & Options Ideas

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In the fast-paced world of trading, success often hinges on screening for the best ideas in real-time to find trading opportunities. At OptionsPlay, we are committed to providing our users with the latest cutting-edge tools to automate the manual process of researching options trades. This is why we are thrilled to announce a groundbreaking partnership with StockCharts.com, a leader in technical analysis, charting, and screening.

This new integration merges the world-class technical analysis screening capabilities of StockCharts with the powerful real-time options screening and strategy tools of OptionsPlay, delivering fully personalized opportunities for options traders in real-time.

A Powerful Synergy for Traders

This integration represents the best of both worlds for traders and investors. By combining StockCharts’ robust technical analysis platform with OptionsPlay’s dynamic options strategy engine, users now have a single, unified solution that screens technical analysis and options strategies simultaneously in real time.

  • Comprehensive Technical Analysis. StockCharts.com is renowned for its extensive charting tools and real-time screening capabilities.
  • Advanced Options Screening. OptionsPlay takes this a step further by analyzing all technical ideas for the optimal options strategy and ranking them in real-time.

Key Features of the Integration

With the integration of OptionsPlay into the StockCharts.com platform, users will benefit from a host of new features designed to enhance their trading process:

  • Real-Time Options Strategies. Access personalized options strategies for every trade idea. These strategies are updated in real-time to fit your preferences, ensuring you are always equipped with relevant and actionable ideas.
  • Real-Time Technical and Options Trade Ideas. Each day, you can scan through a curated list of bullish and bearish trade ideas, with strategies ranked and sorted for optimal options strategies. Whether you prefer trend-following or counter-trend approaches, you’ll find several ideas tailored to your trading style.
  • Seamless Integration. The collaboration between StockCharts and OptionsPlay ensures a seamless experience. Users can easily toggle between chart analysis and options strategy development, making identifying and executing trades more efficient.
  • Award-Winning OptionsPlay Platform. The collaboration between StockCharts and OptionsPlay ensures a seamless integration of the OptionsPlay platform within the StockCharts.com tools.
  • Educational Resources. Both StockCharts.com and OptionsPlay are committed to empowering traders with knowledge. Through this integration, users will access a wealth of educational materials that help them understand not just the “what” but the “why” behind each strategy, fostering deeper insights and better trading decisions.

The Best of Both Worlds

This partnership between StockCharts.com and OptionsPlay is more than just a combination of tools—it’s a fusion of expertise designed to elevate your trading. Whether you are a technical analyst looking to incorporate options into your strategy or an options trader seeking the precision of top-tier charting, this integration offers a comprehensive solution that caters to all your trading needs.

What This Means for You

This integration opens up new possibilities for our valued StockCharts users. You no longer have to switch between platforms or manually piece together disparate data points. Instead, you can enjoy a unified, streamlined experience that combines the strengths of two leading platforms.

Imagine analyzing a stock’s trend on a StockCharts.com chart and immediately viewing the best options strategies available for that stock—all within the same screen. With this integration, you can identify trading opportunities for options trades within seconds.

Join Us on the Next Evolution of Trading

We invite all StockCharts.com users to explore the new integration with OptionsPlay and experience how this powerful combination can enhance your trading strategies. Whether you are a seasoned trader or just starting out, this new toolset is designed to give you the edge you need in today’s markets.

With OptionsPlay, StockCharts.com is committed to helping you trade smarter, faster, and more confidently. We’re excited to see how you leverage this powerful new integration to achieve your trading goals.

Learn more: Visit the OptionsPlay support page to explore the full capabilities of this exciting new feature.

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Element79 Announces Private Placement

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(TheNewswire)

VANCOUVER, BC T he N ewswire October 25, 2024 Element79 Gold Corp. (CSE: ELEM) (OTC: ELMGF) (FSE: 7YS) (‘Element79’, or the ‘Company ‘) is pleased to announce it is launching a non-brokered private placement of up to 10,000,000 units (the ‘Units’), at a price of $0.10 per Unit for gross proceeds of up to $1,000,000 (the ‘Offering’). The Units will consist of one common share of the Company (‘Share’) and one share purchase warrant (‘Warrant’). Each Warrant will be exercisable by the warrant holder to acquire one (1) additional Share at a price of CAD$0.15 for a period of 24 months from the closing of the Offering.

The Warrants are subject to an acceleration clause, whereby if the closing price of the common shares of the Company on the Canadian Securities Exchange (the ‘CSE’) is equal to $0.20 or higher for ten consecutive trading days, the Company may accelerate the expiry of the Warrants to the date that is 30 business days from the date of the issuance of a news release by the Company announcing the exercise of the acceleration right.

Element79 will use the net proceeds from the Offering with a targeted 70% to be invested into projects (85% Lucero, 15% Clover), 15% for corporate operations/audit and 15% to Investor Relations/Marketing.

The issuance of securities in connection with this Offering will be subject to Canadian Securities Exchange approval and the securities will be subject to a statutory hold period of four months plus one day from the date of issuance in accordance with applicable Canadian securities laws.

About Element79 Gold Corp.

Element79 Gold is a mining company with a focus on exploring and developing its past-producing, high-grade gold and silver mine, the Lucero project located in Arequipa, Peru, with the intent to restart production at the mine and through reprocessing its tailings, in the near term.

The Company holds a portfolio of four properties along the Battle Mountain trend in Nevada, and the projects are believed to have significant potential for near-term resource development. The Company has retained the Clover project for resource development purposes and signed a binding agreement to sell three projects with a closing date on or before November 30, 2024.

The Company also holds an option to acquire a 100% interest in the Dale Property, 90 unpatented mining claims located approximately 100 km southwest of Timmins, Ontario, and has recently announced that it has transferred this project to its wholly owned subsidiary, Synergy Metals Corp, and is advancing through the Plan of Arrangement spin-out process.

For more information about the Company, please visit www.element79.gold

Contact Information

For corporate matters, please contact:

James C. Tworek, Chief Executive Officer

E-mail: jt@element79.gold

For investor relations inquiries, please contact:

Investor Relations Department

Phone: +1.403.850.8050

E-mail: investors@element79.gold

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward Looking Statements

This press contains ‘forward‐looking information’ and ‘forward-looking statements’ under applicable securities laws (collectively, ‘forward‐looking statements’). These statements relate to future events or the Company’s future performance, business prospects or opportunities that are based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and assumptions of management made considering management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to: the Company’s business strategy; future planning processes; exploration activities; the timing and result of exploration activities; capital projects and exploration activities and the possible results thereof; acquisition opportunities; and the impact of acquisitions, if any, on the Company. Assumptions may prove to be incorrect and actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. Consequently, forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. As such, investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance upon forward-looking statements as there can be no assurance that the plans, assumptions or expectations upon which they are placed will occur. All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward‐looking statements. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives or future events or performance (often, but not always, using words or phrases such as ‘seek’, ‘anticipate’, ‘plan’, ‘continue’, ‘estimate’, ‘expect’, ‘may’, ‘will’, ‘project’, ‘predict’, ‘forecast’, ‘potential’, ‘target’, ‘intend’, ‘could’, ‘might’, ‘should’, ‘believe’ and similar expressions) are not statements of historical fact and may be ‘forward‐looking statements’.

Neither the Canadian Securities Exchange nor the Market Regulator (as that term is defined in the policies of the Canadian Securities Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Copyright (c) 2024 TheNewswire – All rights reserved.

News Provided by TheNewsWire via QuoteMedia

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Gold Reaches New Price Record, Then Pulls Back; Silver Nearly Hits US$35

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The gold price cooled on Wednesday (October 23) after soaring to a new high a day earlier.

The yellow metal slipped as low as US$2,714.16 per ounce after rising to just above US$2,750 on Tuesday (October 22). Market watchers have attributed the pullback to a stronger US dollar and better US Treasury yields.

These factors are counteracting safe-haven demand caused by geopolitical turmoil.

Even so, many experts believe gold’s move isn’t over. Its latest record extends a trend seen through 2024, and is being driven by several key factors, including central bank buying, inflation concerns and broader macro events.

Silver has been on the rise this week as well, nearly touching US$35 per ounce on Tuesday.

What’s driving gold and silver prices?

Industry insiders continue pointing to central bank buying as a reason that gold’s move still has legs.

Data from the World Gold Council suggests that central banks added to their gold reserves significantly in the first half of 2024, making gold the second largest global reserve asset, behind only the US dollar.

Interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve are also helping to boost gold’s appeal. The American central bank cut rates by 50 basis points in September and is expected to continue bringing them down.

Inflation concerns have played a critical role in gold’s price surge too.

Although US inflation has moderated in recent months, falling to 2.4 percent in September, the possibility of rising inflation in other parts of the world continues to drive demand for gold as a hedge.

Geopolitical risks are another factor influencing the price of gold. Tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, have heightened market volatility, as has Russia’s war with Ukraine. Investors often turn to the yellow metal as a safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

Silver, often referred to as ‘poor man’s gold,’ has also experienced strong price growth, driven by its dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. Demand for silver is partly driven by its uses in renewable energy technologies, such as solar panels, which have experienced increased demand as part of the global energy transition.

While silver has benefited from industrial demand, it has also tracked gold’s performance as a precious metal.

The correlation between the two metals has strengthened in recent months as global economic concerns and inflationary pressures have prompted investors to seek out safe-haven assets.

Will gold and silver prices keep rising?

Looking ahead, market analysts remain bullish on the outlook for both gold and silver.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) recently revised its price target for gold, forecasting that the metal could reach US$2,850 by the end of 2024. Others have even higher expectations, calling for US$3,000 as soon as this year.

Silver is expected to maintain its upward trajectory as well, particularly given its role in the energy transition.

Risks to both gold and silver include easing geopolitical tensions, while the silver price could face headwinds if global industrial demand slows due to a recession or other factors.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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PGMs Surge as US Pushes G7 Sanctions, BRICS Eyes Trade Alternatives

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Palladium and platinum prices soared in recent trading sessions, reflecting the direct effects of heightened geopolitical tensions between Western powers and Russia.

On October 24, palladium prices surged by nearly 10 percent in a single day, reaching approximately US$1,168 per troy ounce. They surged even higher the following day, touching US$1,200 for the first time since since December 2023.

Platinum also experienced an uptick, although a less pronounced one. The metal’s price rose to about US$1,044, marking a five month high, although it pulled back after.

Over the past two months, the sister metals have seen considerable volatility. In late August, palladium reached a seven-year low of US$835. Its price following this recent surge represents an over 40 percent recovery from that low. Platinum has also followed a positive trajectory, recovering from levels of around US$900 during the same period.

Potential for G7 trade sanctions on Russian palladium drive price volatility

The rise in palladium prices can be attributed to the US Treasury’s call for stricter sanctions on Russian precious metals, which include both palladium and platinum.

The US recently proposed to its Group of Seven (G7) partners that they consider sanctioning Russian exports of key metals, including palladium and titanium.

A similar situation in December last year — when the UK banned certain Russian metal imports — saw an even larger price reaction, with palladium jumping around US$300, or 30 percent, within just five days.

It is worth noting that Russia is a major global supplier for the metals, accounting for approximately 40 percent of palladium and a significant portion of platinum production.

As the war in Ukraine continues, the US and its allies are concerned about the implications of Russian exports on global supply chains.

If G7 sanctions on Russian palladium exports were to materialize, the impact on the US market would be substantial.

Currently, the US is already facing a shortage of physical palladium, with domestic production unable to meet the demand, especially as Sibanye-Stillwater(NYSE:SBSW), one of the largest US sources of palladium, is planning to halve its platinum and palladium production at its mine in Montana next year.

Recycling palladium has not yet filled this gap, and much of the existing supply from South Africa has been accounted for, leaving few alternative sources for US consumers.

While G7 nations would face enforcement challenges due to the potential fallout across automotive, electronics and other palladium-dependent sectors, the possibility alone is reshaping market expectations

Russia proposes BRICS precious metals exchange at Summit

Russia may have some plans of its own. On Thursday (October 24), Reuters reported that at this years annual BRICS Summit, which concluded that day, Russia suggested the BRICS countries establish a precious metals exchange aimed at ensuring fair pricing and expanding trade within the bloc, according to Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

This proposal aligns with broader BRICS discussions on building financial infrastructure alternatives to counterbalance Western-dominated platforms.

The envisioned BRICS exchange would cover key aspects of precious metals trading, including creating benchmark price indicators, establishing standards for bullion production and trade, and providing clearing and auditing instruments for market participants.

These mechanisms would offer an alternative to longstanding Western exchanges such as the London Metal Exchange (LME), and act as a safeguard against sanctions affecting BRICS members.

The BRICS initiative could help Russia and its allies bypass these barriers, promoting freer trade within the bloc and offering member countries like China and India an alternative source for precious metals outside of Western markets.

For the US and Europe, this initiative signals a possible reduction in BRICS’ reliance on Western financial systems, potentially reshaping trade patterns for metals critical to industries like automotive, technology and jewelry.

However, Russia’s proposal to establish a new trading mechanism for precious metals within the BRICS framework has raised eyebrows among market players.

Such actions could complicate existing trade routes and affect pricing mechanisms, as the world’s primary market for palladium and platinum has historically been centered in London. Collectively, the market response to these geopolitical developments has been marked by an increase in speculative trading activity.

To illustrate, recent trading volumes for palladium and platinum have surged. For instance, the dramatic rise in palladium prices is notable given its primary use in autocatalysts for gasoline engines — a sector facing scrutiny as governments globally target net-zero carbon emissions.

As the US and its allies push for tighter sanctions, and as Russia seeks to forge new trading partnerships within BRICS, the market for these precious metals can expect further volatility moving forward

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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6 Best-performing Lithium Stocks of 2024

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Lithium market surpluses continued to suppress prices and hinder sector growth throughout Q3 2024, broad consolidation early in the quarter signaled a potential bottoming out.

Subsequently analysts forecasted a price recovery as EV sales exceeded expectations in September.

Projected demand growth prompted Sprott Insights to warn of a potential lithium shortage emerging as early as 2025, with demand, especially from China, set to rise 20 percent annually.

Jacob White, an analyst at Sprott Insights, pointed to the future demand trends as a catalyst for lithium market investment.

“The lithium battery industry is projected to create US$400 billion in annual revenue opportunities worldwide,” he wrote. “The lithium production component of the chain has recorded margins as high as 65 percent, potentially making it a highly profitable sector.”

White continued, “Lithium miners, in particular, may be well positioned as they can give leverage to rebounding lithium prices. In contrast, non-vertically integrated lithium processing/refining companies may see their expenses rise.”

The list below was generated using TradingView’s stock screener, and data was gathered on October 18, 2024. While US lithium companies were considered for the list, none were up year-to-date at the time data was gathered. All lithium stocks had market caps above $10 million in their respective currencies when data was gathered.

Top Canadian lithium stocks

1. Q2 Metals (TSXV:QTWO)

Press ReleasesCompany Profile

Year-to-date gain: 408 percent
Market cap: C$174.5 million
Share price: C$1.27

Exploration firm Q2 Metals is exploring its flagship Mia lithium property in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region of Québec, Canada. The property contains the Mia trend, which spans over 10 kilometers. Also included in Q2 Metals’ portfolio is the Stellar lithium property, comprised of 77 claims and located 6 kilometers north of the Mia property.

This year, Q2 Metals has also focused on exploring the Cisco lithium property, which is situated in the same region. On February 29, the company entered into three separate option agreements to gain a 100 percent interest in Cisco, news that caused its share price to skyrocket; it reached a year-to-date high of C$0.54 on March 4. Q2 Metals closed the acquisition of Cisco in June and now wholly owns the project.

In mid-May, Q2 Metals released re-assayed results from 2023 drilling conducted at Cisco by the property’s vendors. The company used the analytical method it has applied to its Mia drill cores.

“We are pleased with the positive outcome of the re-analysis of the Cisco drill results,” said Q2 Metals Vice President of Exploration Neil McCallum. “A thorough review of the quality control measures has solidified that the new results are more accurate than the original results previously announced. It’s not an unexpected change as the analytical methods now used are more accurate at higher grades above roughly 1.5 percent Li2O and we have several samples above that range.”

Later that month, the company announced the start of a summer drill program at the Cisco property. It has since released multiple significant updates, including the confirmation of eight new mineralized zones on July 8.

Company shares rose to a year-to-date high of C$1.48 on October 10, shortly after Q2 released drill results and core assays from the Cisco property. As of October 1, 17 holes covering 6,360 meters in total have been drilled.

Additionally, each drill hole encountered pegmatite with visible signs of spodumene mineralization, a key lithium-bearing mineral.

“These assays continue to validate the potential and scale of the Cisco Property as that of a larger mineralized system,” said Neil McCallum, VP exploration. “One important observation of these results is the higher-grade nature of the larger mineralized system as we test and track the system progressing to the south.”

On the corporate side, Q2 announced a C$7.5 million private placement on July 10. The placement, which was divided into two tranches, was successfully closed on August 9, 2024.

2. Volt Lithium (TSXV:VLT)

Press ReleasesCompany Profile

Year-to-date gain: 78.26 percent
Market cap: C$57.44 million
Share price: C$0.41

Volt Lithium is a lithium development and technology company aiming to become a premier North American lithium producer utilizing its unique technology to extract lithium from oilfield brine.

Shares of Volt reached a year-to-date high of C$0.49 on September 26.

On April 29, Volt announced a strategic investment of US$1.5 million by an unnamed company operating in the Delaware Basin in West Texas. This investment is earmarked for the deployment of a field unit to produce lithium hydroxide monohydrate using Volt’s proprietary direct lithium extraction technology.

The company’s share price retreated in the second half of Q2, but July 17 news that Volt increased its processing capacity at its operations in Alberta, Canada, by 100 fold to 96,000 liters per day caused its price to shoot up more than C$0.08 during trading that day.

An August announcement from Volt highlighted the deployment and subsequent production scale up of Volt’s DLE technology in the Permian Basin. The field unit has the capacity to process 200,000 liters (1,250 barrels) of oilfield brine per day on location in West Texas.

3. Lithium Chile (TSXV:LITH)

Press ReleasesCompany Profile

Year-to-date gain: 30.19 percent
Market cap: C$140.03 million
Share price: C$0.69

South America-focused Lithium Chile owns several lithium land packages in Chile and Argentina. Presently, the explorer is working to delineate the deposit at its Salar de Arizaro property in Argentina.

On April 9, Lithium Chile announced a 24 percent increase in the resource estimate for Salar de Arizaro. The new total for the project is 4.12 million metric tons (MT) of lithium carbonate equivalent, categorized as follows: 261,000 MT in the measured category, 2.24 million MT in the indicated category and 1.62 million MT in the inferred category.

Not long after, on April 18, the company reported the creation of two wholly owned Canadian subsidiaries — Lithium Chile 2.0 and Kairos Gold — as part of a spinout to separate its Chilean and Argentinian assets.

Lithium Chile will retain its Argentinian lithium projects, and transfer its 111,978 hectares of Chilean lithium properties to Lithium Chile 2.0 and its portfolio of gold assets in Chile to Kairos Gold.

In a July operational update for the Salar de Arizaro project the company highlighted high grade intercepts from hole ARGENTO-06.

Top Australian lithium stocks

1. Ioneer (ASX:INR)

Year-to-date gain: 73.33 percent
Market cap: AU$572.84 million
Share price: AU$0.26

Australia-listed Ioneer owns the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project in Nevada, US. The project is considered the “sole lithium-boron deposit in North America.”

As part of the permitting process for the Rhyolite Ridge project, Ioneer completed and submitted the administrative draft environmental impact statement (EIS) to the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in mid-January. In mid-September, Ioneer announced that the BLM published the final EIS, moving the company closer to building its Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project.

According to the company, the milestone now makes Rhyolite Ridge the first lithium project under the Biden Administration to reach the advanced stage of the environmental permitting process.

“Since Ioneer’s work at Rhyolite Ridge began in 2016, we have listened to members of the community and adapted our plans to maximize the project’s many economic benefits while minimizing indirect impacts to the community and environment. Rhyolite Ridge is stronger because of the extensive collaboration and input from all involved stakeholders,” said Bernard Rowe, managing director at Ioneer.

2. Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL)

Press ReleasesCompany Profile

Year-to-date gain: 63.45 percent
Market cap: AU$920.24 million
Share price: AU$4.74

Europe-focused Vulcan Energy Resources aims to support a carbon-neutral future by producing lithium and renewable energy from geothermal brine. The company is currently developing the Zero Carbon lithium project in Germany’s Upper Rhine Valley. Vulcan is utilising a proprietary alumina-based adsorbent-type direct lithium extraction process to produce lithium with an end goal of supplying sustainable lithium for the European EV market.

On April 11, Vulcan announced the commencement of lithium chloride production at its lithium extraction optimisation plant in Germany. According to the company, the milestone marks the first lithium chemical production in Europe using local supply. The plant consistently exhibited over 90 percent lithium extraction efficiency.

Vulcan will now prepare the 40 million euro facility for commercial production. The company already has binding lithium offtake agreements in place with major automakers and battery manufacturers, and expects to supply enough lithium for 500,000 EVs during the first phase of production.

During the third quarter, Vulcan received its first licenses for lithium and geothermal exploration in Alsace, France. The permits cover 463 square kilometres, expanding Vulcan’s total licensed area in the Upper Rhine Valley to 2,234 square kilometres across France and Germany.

In early August, Vulcan began commissioning its downstream lithium hydroxide optimisation plant (CLEOP) near Frankfurt.

“In the coming months, Vulcan will begin to transport the first LiCl parcels from our upstream facility through to CLEOP for production of the first battery-grade lithium hydroxide products in Europe, all from a European lithium resource,” Vulcan CEO and Managing Director Cris Moreno said.

A mid-October release from Vulcan outlined a memorandum of understanding with industrial software designer AVEVA. The partnership will see AVEVA build a digital framework for Vulcan’s Zero Carbon lithium project.

3. Cygnus (ASX:CY5)

Press ReleasesCompany Profile

Year-to-date gain: 3.7 percent
Market cap: AU$53.17 million
Share price: AU$0.14

Cygnus Metals is an exploration company focused on advancing its Pontax, Auclair and Sakami lithium projects in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay lithium district of Québec, Canada. The company also owns rare earth element, lithium and base metal projects in Western Australia.

In July, Cygnus reported the completion of geophysical survey work at the Auclair lithium project. The resulting data “identified significant potential for growth” in the Pegasus zone.

Most recently, Cygnus entered into an agreement to a merger of equals with Canadian copper company Doré Copper Mining (TSXV:DCMC,OTCQB:DRCMF), which owns several copper assets in Québec. The statement says the merger creates “a Québec-focused critical minerals explorer and developer with high-grade copper and lithium resources.’

“By combining the proven exploration and management skills of the Cygnus team with the high-grade copper resources and immense upside potential at the Chibougamau properties, we have the potential to unlock substantial value,” said David Southam, Cygnus’ executive chairman.

FAQs for investing in lithium

How much lithium is on Earth?

While we don’t know how much total lithium is on Earth, the US Geological Survey estimates that global reserves of lithium stand at 22 billion metric tons. Of that, 9.2 billion MT are located in Chile, and 5.7 billion MT are in Australia.

Where is lithium mined?

Lithium is mined throughout the world, but the two countries that produce the most are Australia and Chile. Australia’s lithium comes from primarily hard-rock deposits, while Chile’s comes from lithium brines. Chile is part of the Lithium Triangle alongside Argentina and Bolivia, although those two countries have a lower annual output.

Rounding out the top five lithium-producing countries behind Australia and Chile are China, Argentina and Brazil.

What is lithium used for?

Lithium has many uses, including the lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles, smartphones and other tech, as well as pharmaceuticals, ceramics, grease, lubricants and heat-resistant glass. Still, it is largely the electric vehicle industry that is boosting demand.

How to invest in lithium?

Those looking to get into the lithium market have many options when it comes to how to invest in lithium.

Lithium stocks like those mentioned above could be a good option for investors interested in the space. If you’re looking to diversify instead of focusing on one stock, there is the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (NYSE:LIT), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on the metal. Experienced investors can also look at lithium futures.

Unlike many commodities, investors cannot physically hold lithium due to its dangerous properties.

How to buy lithium stocks?

Through the use of a broker or an investing service such as an app, investors can purchase lithium stocks and ETFs that match their investing outlook.

Before buying a lithium stock, potential investors should take time to research the companies they’re considering; they should also decide how many shares will be purchased, and what price they are willing to pay. With many options on the market, it’s critical to complete due diligence before making any investment decisions.

It’s also important for investors to keep their goals in mind when choosing their investing method. There are many factors to consider when choosing a broker, as well as when looking at investing apps — a few of these include the broker or app’s reputation, their fee structure and investment style.

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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‘Instead of aid, we are receiving tanks’: Keyhospital in northern Gaza comes under Israeli fire

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Israeli forces entered the compound of northern Gaza’s Kamal Adwan Hospital and opened fire after days of laying siege to the facility, health authorities in the enclave said.

Dr Hussam Abu Safiya, the hospital director, said in a video that Israeli tanks and bulldozers entered the hospital compound late Thursday and began firing at parts of the complex, adding that “all departments of the hospital are under direct shelling.”

“Instead of receiving aid, we are receiving tanks,” he said.

Kamal Adwan is one of three minimally operational hospitals in northern Gaza, and the closest to Israeli military activity in Beit Lahiya and the Jabalya Refugee Camp. Despite its limited capacity, it has been receiving most of the injured from the surrounding fighting.

World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Friday that since the raid on Kamal Adwan hospital, WHO has “lost touch with the personnel there.”

“This development is deeply disturbing given the number of patients being served and people sheltering there,” Ghebreyesus said on X. Prior to Friday’s raid, he said, WHO and its partners managed to reach Kamal Adwan “amid hostilities in the vicinity, and transferred 23 patients and 26 caregivers to Al-Shifa Hospital.”

The Israeli military said in a statement Friday that its forces are operating in the area of the Kamal Adwan Hospital “based on intelligence information regarding the presence of terrorists and terrorist infrastructure,” adding that in the weeks preceding the operation, “the IDF facilitated the evacuation of patients from the area while maintaining emergency services.”

COGAT, the Israeli agency that manages the flow of aid into the strip, said on Friday that with the help of UNICEF and WHO, several patients and their escorts were evacuated from the facility. The hospital was also given fuel, blood units and medical equipment.

But WHO’s Ghebreyesus stated on X that the hospital is housing about 200 patients, along with hundreds more seeking shelter there.

‘Shocked by the entry of bulldozers and tanks’

Shamiya said that the military had entered the hospital yard for a second time on Friday morning and had begun separating men from women.

“After that, it became impossible to communicate with anyone.”

In his video message, Safiya said he was “shocked by the entry of bulldozers and tanks into the hospital compound,” adding that tanks began firing at the upper floors, shattering windows and “creating an atmosphere of panic, terror, and fear.”

“Everyone in the hospital gathered in the stairwell; it was a very distressing scene,” he said.

One video showed Abu Safiya speaking from within the Intensive Care Unit, where patients and medical staff were huddled. He said that some severely injured people were dying. Abu Safiya said that a number of properties around the hospital had been set on fire.

Later Thursday night, a convoy of supplies from the World Health Organization reached the hospital, he said. Video showed a fuel tanker and other vehicles close to the facility.

Abu Safiya said the convoy delivered enough fuel for five days, as well as 200 units of blood and a few other supplies, but no food or water.

He said he had been in touch with Israeli officers.

“I explained the situation of the patients and the injured people in the hospital, emphasizing that their condition was extremely critical and that evacuation was necessary.”

“We have no medical assistance that can reach them, and I do not have the means to help them even if they were able to reach us. We have nothing to offer them.”

It has been 21 days since Israel ramped up its military operation in northern Gaza. Authorities in Gaza say the military has stopped aid from reaching parts of the area and displaced many of its residents. Israel says it is preventing Hamas from regrouping.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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