The last 48 hours has seen the most intense exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah in almost a year of war in Gaza, as the Lebanese militant group fired projectiles deeper into Israeli territory than has previously been seen.

On Saturday Israel pounded Hezbollah targets with nearly 300 strikes it what they described as preemptive action to thwart a planned attack. Hezbollah meanwhile has been launching a barrage of rockets and other projectiles at Israel in what it says is retaliation for Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

Hezbollah – the Lebanon-based, Iran-backed militant group – has been left reeling after two days of blasts targeting pagers and walkie-talkies used by its members was followed by an Israeli strike on southern Beirut, which killed at least 45 people including a top commander and other senior operatives.

Here’s what we know about the escalation of tensions.

What’s happened, when and where?

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Lebanon was rocked by two similar, surprise attacks. On Tuesday afternoon, pagers exploded at the same time across several parts of Lebanon, including capital Beirut, and in several towns in the central Beqaa valley, strongholds for the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.

Almost exactly 24 hours later, Lebanon was rocked by a second attack Wednesday, when walkie-talkies detonated in the suburbs of Beirut and in the south of the country.

Lebanese health minister Firass Abiad put the death toll from both attacks at 39; 12 on Tuesday and 27 on Wednesday.

The exploding devices attacks were followed by an Israeli strike on the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Friday, which killed at least 45 including senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil, and levelled a multistory building in a densely populated neighborhood.

The developments put the region on a knife edge, with Hezbollah targeting northern Israel with a series of rockets and missiles overnight on Saturday into Sunday, striking deeper into Israeli territory than they have done in other recent attacks. The attacks, Hezbollah said, were in response to repeated Israeli strikes in Lebanon that have led to the deaths of “many civilians.” Among the targets, Hezbollah said it hit an air base with Fadi 1 and Fadi 2 missiles, a longer-range weapon seemingly not used so far.

Most were intercepted but some fell, causing damage. The Israeli military reported impacts in Kiryat Bialik, Tsur Shalom and Moreshet near the port city of Haifa, around 40 km (25 miles) south of the border, marking one of the deepest direct hits by the Iran-backed group since the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war.

Schools have closed in many northern areas of Israel, and gatherings have been restricted.

Israel meanwhile fired nearly 300 projectiles into southern Lebanon on Saturday in what the military said was pre-emptive action against a planned Hezbollah attack. Israel continued its strikes into Sunday, with Lebanon’s official National News Agency (NNA) reporting two people were killed Sunday morning in southern Lebanon.

Will the conflict escalate?

Exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah have occurred consistently since the outbreak of war in Gaza on October 8, the day after Hamas’ attack on Israel, in skirmishes which have long sparked fears of the fighting spilling over into a wider regional conflict.

Key players have at times appeared to walk right up to the brink, but tensions have de-escalated given the grave consequences of an all-out war in the Middle East.

However, the intensity of attacks between Israel and Hezbollah seen over the past few days has been unprecedented, renewing fears of a wider war that could drag in the entire region, as well as Israel’s chief ally the United States.

While Hezbollah’s leader has previously stated he does not want a fully-fledged regional war, experts have said he may now be under more pressure to act following the spate of explosions, and with Israel set on moving its military objectives to its northern border.

Israeli President Israel Herzog told Sky News on Sunday said that Israel “is not interested to be at war with Lebanon.” He instead blamed Hezbollah for the military escalation between the two nations.

Hezbollah has admitted the attacks have left them weakened but also show little sign of pulling back. Naim Qassim – the group’s second most important figure after leader Hassan Nasrallah – said a “a battle without limits” was now underway.

Why did Israel target Lebanon now?

Hezbollah and Israel have been in conflict for decades – but the two have ramped up their cross-border attacks on each other since last October when the war in Gaza began, following Palestinian militant group Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel.

Hezbollah is part of a larger Iran-led axis across the Middle East spanning Yemen, Syria, Gaza and Iraq that has engaged in a simmering conflict with Israel and its allies over the past 11 months.

The axis has said they will continue striking Israeli targets as long as the war in Gaza goes on, rebranding themselves as a “supportive front” for Palestinians in the strip, as described by a senior Hezbollah leader.

Israel may have chosen this timing for the attacks because it believed Hezbollah had discovered the pagers’ capability – making it a “use it or lose it” moment, said an Israeli source familiar with national security.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may also have wanted to shore up domestic support. Officials and residents from the northern region have become increasingly vocal about the need to return to their homes after being evacuated due to attacks, piling pressure on the government to act against the threat of Hezbollah’s rockets from southern Lebanon.

On Tuesday, Israel made it a new war objective to return Israel’s northern residents to their homes near the border – which has long been understood to be a political necessity.

Speaking on Sunday, Netanyahu again put the focus on ensuring the return of Israel citizens to their homes in northern Israel and to restore security in that region.

Speaking ahead of a government meeting, he said: “If Hezbollah didn’t get the message – I assure you – they will get the message. We are determined to return our citizens in the north to their homes safely.”

An Israeli airstrike reduces a nine-story apartment building in Beirut’s southern suburb to a large mound of rubble. A man covered in dust flails lifelessly in the arms of a rescuer. A corpse in a body bag is whizzed past parked ambulances on the back of a quad bike.

Suspicion pierces through the catastrophic aftermath of the attack. Plainclothes Hezbollah members snatch the phones of people snapping photos, demanding they be deleted. “Get the cell phones out of here!” screams one woman.

It was Iran-backed Hezbollah’s darkest hour. A meeting that gathered commanders of the group’s elite Radwan force in the basement of a residential building had been struck down by Israeli warplanes.

At least 45 people, including women and children, were killed, along with 16 Hezbollah militants, including the Radwan force leader Ibrahim Aqil and senior commander Ahmad Wehbe.

Just two days earlier, hundreds of walkie-talkies belonging to the Lebanese militant group’s members detonated in a single minute. A day before that, thousands of exploding Hezbollah pagers maimed hundreds of people. Overall, at least 80 people have been killed in attacks since Tuesday. Most were Hezbollah operatives, but the casualties also include women and children.

Now, the Middle East’s most formidable non-state fighting force is reeling from the biggest-ever hit to its military structure, as well as the most visible Israeli infiltration of its ranks and communications infrastructureinits more than 40-year history. The internal breach enabled the successive blows this week and sowed panic within Hezbollah, according to Lebanese security sources.

In a Saturday news conference, Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi gave an impassioned speech, declaring that the country was in the throes of an Israeli “breach” and vowing to ramp up the monitoring of “foreigners, hotels and Syrian camps.”

The enemy’s firepower had pursued Hezbollah to its lair, attacking rank-and-file and military leadership alike.

Weakened militarily and stripped of its cloak of secrecy, Hezbollah has arrived at the most delicate phase of its decades-long fight against Israel. It hoped that a low-level fight on the border on behalf of the Palestinians would prop up Hamas’ position in the negotiations, but a ceasefire in Gaza seems more elusive than ever before. Now its limited confrontation with Israel has exacted a seemingly unlimited price from the militant group.

Yet the compulsion to lash out has rarely been greater, bringing the region even closer to the brink of a catastrophic war.

In its most high-level statement since the Israeli airstrike on Friday, Hezbollah’s second in command Naim Qassem declared “a new chapter” in the confrontations which he called “a battle without limits.”

Hezbollah’s retaliation in the early hours of Sunday appears to be its most forceful attack since confrontations at the Israel-Lebanon border began last October. The group said it targeted the Ramat David airbase in southeast Haifa, and the Rafael military industries site, north of Haifa. The Israeli military did not respond to questions about whether the site was impacted but officials confirmed direct hits nearby.

This was one of the deepest hits by Hezbollah since the last all-out war between Lebanon and Israel in 2006. The group also said it used new missiles it calls Fadi-1 and Fadi-2, believed to be medium-range rockets. If confirmed, this would mark one of the first time Hezbollah has fired weapons outside of its short-range arsenal.

The group will hope to have restored some of its deterrence power, and to force an end to Israel’s “new chapter” in its fight against Hezbollah.

What is certain is that there are new unwritten rules of engagement between Hezbollah and Israel. Until a few months ago, an Israeli strike in Beirut was believed to provoke a Hezbollah retaliation in a major Israeli city. After Israel killed a Hamas leader in southern Beirut in January, that turned out not to be true. Since then, Israel has attacked the Lebanese capital five times.

Hours before the Israeli airstrike on Friday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called the strikes on the wireless devices “unprecedented and severe.” The group had lost this battle, he seemed to say, but not the war.

Hezbollah’s supporters are trying to put on a brave face. “War is a boxing match. One day you win, another day you lose,” said Hussein, attending the funeral of three Hezbollah fighters slain in Friday’s strike.

“We are strong in our faith … We are all ready to spill blood for Nasrallah.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) looked set to fend off the far right in a state election in Brandenburg on Sunday after trailing behind the Alternative for Germany (AfD) throughout the campaign, exit polls indicated.

The SPD, which has governed the state surrounding the capital Berlin since reunification in 1990, scored 31.8% of the vote, ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany on 29.2%, in a last-minute comeback, according to the exit poll by broadcaster ZDF.

The success for the SPD could give Scholz a slight reprieve from party discussions about his suitability to be once more be its chancellor candidate for the federal election scheduled for next September given his unpopularity with voters.

It is unlikely, however, to give him or his party a major boost given the popular, incumbent SPD premier Dietmar Woidke had distanced himself from Scholz during the campaign and criticized the federal government’s policies.

“Dietmar Woidke and his Brandenburg SPD have made a furious comeback in recent weeks,” said SPD party general secretary Kevin Kuehnert.

“For us in the federal SPD, this evening, if things go well, the problems that lie ahead of us will not have gotten any bigger. But they have not gotten any smaller either,” he said.

Three-quarters of those who voted for the SPD did not do so out of conviction but rather to fend off the AfD, according to the exit poll published by broadcaster ARD. Turnout rose to 73% from 61% five years ago, according to ZDF.

The SPD is polling just 15% at national level, down from the 25.7% it scored in the 2021 federal election. That is behind the AfD on around 20% and opposition conservatives on 32%.

All three parties in Scholz’s ideologically heterogeneous coalition combined are currently polling at around 30%, less than the conservatives alone.

The coalition has come under fire for its constant bickering and for its handling of immigration. In the formerly Communist-run East, many voters are also critical of its delivery of weapons to Ukraine to help it fend off Russia’s full-scale invasion.

No time for complacency

The vote in Brandenburg comes three weeks after the Russia-friendly AfD became the first far-right party to top a state election in Germany since World War Two, in Thuringia. It also performed strongly in neighboring Saxony, coming hot on the heels of the conservatives in second place.

Woidke warned against complacency, noting the AfD was still gaining momentum. The ZDF poll suggested it had gained 5.7 percentage points since the last Brandenburg election in 2019.

AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla noted the AfD had made strong gains among young voters – a trend that was reflected for far-right parties across Europe in the EU elections in June.

The new leftist Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht was on track to come in third place, on 12% according to the poll, ahead of the conservatives on 11.6%, underscoring the ongoing upheavals in Germany’s political landscape making predictions tricky.

The Greens, one of the junior partners in Scholz’s coalition at a federal level, came in on 4.7%, just below the 5% threshold to automatically make it into state parliament.

The result achieved by the other junior coalition partner, the Free Democrats (FDP), was too insignificant to be reflected in the poll.

Sri Lankans elected Marxist-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake as their new president on Sunday, putting faith in his pledge to fight corruption and bolster a fragile economic recovery following the South Asian nation’s worst financial crisis in decades.

Dissanayake, 55, who does not possess political lineage like some of his rivals in the presidential election, led from start to finish during the counting of votes, knocking out incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa.

“We believe that we can turn this country around, we can build a stable government … and move forward. For me this is not a position, it is a responsibility,” Dissanayake told reporters after his victory which was confirmed after a second tally of votes.

The election was a referendum on Wickremesinghe, who led the heavily indebted nation’s fragile economic recovery from an economic meltdown but the austerity measures that were key to this recovery angered voters. He finished third with 17% of the votes.

“Mr. President, here I handover to you with much love, the dear child called Sri Lanka, whom we both love very dearly,” Wickremesinghe, 75, said in a statement conceding defeat.

Dissanayake polled 5.6 million or 42.3% of the votes, a massive boost to the 3% he managed in the last presidential election in 2019. Premadasa was second at 32.8%.

It was the first time in the Indian Ocean island’s history that the presidential race was decided by a second tally of votes after the top two candidates failed to win the mandatory 50% of votes to be declared winner.

Under the electoral system, voters cast three preferential votes for their chosen candidates. If no candidate wins 50% in the first count, a second tally determines the winner between the top two candidates, using the preferential votes cast.

About 75% of the 17 million eligible voters cast their ballots, according to the election commission.

This was the country’s first election since its economy buckled in 2022 under a severe foreign exchange shortage, leaving it unable to pay for imports of essentials including fuel, medicine and cooking gas. Protests forced then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee and later resign.

Dissanayake presented himself as the candidate of change for those reeling under austerity measures linked to a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund bailout, promising to dissolve parliament within 45 days of taking office for a fresh mandate for his policies in general elections.

“The election result clearly shows the uprising that we witnessed in 2022 is not over,” said Pradeep Peiris, a political scientist at the University of Colombo.

“People have voted in line with those aspirations to have different political practices and political institutions. AKD (as Dissanayake is popularly known) reflects these aspirations and people have rallied around him.”

Dissanayake has worried investors with a manifesto pledging to slash taxes, which could impact IMF fiscal targets, and a $25 billion debt rework. But during campaigning, he took a more conciliatory approach, saying all changes would be undertaken in consultation with the IMF and that he was committed to ensuring repayment of debt.

Grinding poverty for millions

Buttressed by the IMF deal, Sri Lanka’s economy has managed a tentative recovery. It is expected to grow this year for the first time in three years and inflation has moderated to 0.5% from a crisis peak of 70%.

But the continued high cost of living was a critical issue for many voters as millions remain mired in poverty and many pinned hopes of a better future on the next leader.

Dissanayake ran as a candidate for the National People’s Power alliance, which includes his Marxist-leaning Janatha Vimukthi Peremuna party.

Although JVP has just three seats in parliament, Dissanayake’s promises of tough anti-corruption measures and more policies to support the poor boosted his popularity.

He will have to ensure Sri Lanka sticks with the IMF program until 2027 to get its economy on a stable growth path, reassure markets, repay debt, attract investors and help a quarter of its people out of poverty.

“Root cause for the downfall of this country is bad management. We have a strong feeling if we have a good manager to rule this country… we can be successful in future,” said Janak Dias, 55, a real estate businessmen.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky toured a Pennsylvania ammunition plant on Sunday as he began a key visit to the United States in which he is expected to present his blueprint to defeat Russia to President Joe Biden and other allies.

Zelensky will fully outline his “victory plan” – which includes Kyiv’s long-stated request to use long-range missiles on targets inside Russia – to Biden for the first time during the visit before sharing it with both presidential candidates, US lawmakers and international partners, he said.

“This fall will determine the future of this war,” Zelensky posted on X from his plane before landing in the US. “Together with our partners, we can strengthen our positions as needed for our victory – a shared victory for a truly just peace.”

Zelensky kicked off his visit at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Biden’s hometown, where he thanked workers for providing Ukraine with munitions and said the facility would ramp up production of 155mm artillery shells crucial for Kyiv’s war effort.

“It is in places like this where you can truly feel that the democratic world can prevail,” he said. “Thanks to people like these – in Ukraine, in America, and in all partner countries – who work tirelessly to ensure that life is protected.”

Zelensky has been pushing Ukraine’s allies to ease restrictions on weapons and although there have been signs of the US shifting its stance, he said Friday they have yet to be given permission.

“We do have long-range weapons. But let’s just say not the amount we need,” Zelensky told reporters, adding that “neither the US nor the United Kingdom gave us permission to use these weapons on the territory of Russia.”

He has blamed the allies’ hesitation to authorize such use on escalation fears, but said he was hopeful his arguments would be heard during his visit.

Zelensky is expected to travel to New York, where he will speak at the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday and meet with leaders of the Global South, the G7, Europe and international organizations.

He will then travel to Washington for talks with Biden and Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.

“I want to see what she thinks about this victory plan,” he said of Harris on Friday.

“As I told you, the plan includes not only what is needed from Biden today. But it also includes the fact that we will have a different situation after November. That is, there will be a new president in the United States. And we need to talk to each of the candidates about their perception of this.”

Harris has expressed her support for Ukraine and NATO allies, indicating she would continue Biden’s policies of backing Ukraine, if she is elected president.

Zelensky also plans to meet with Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, who in a recent debate refused to say if he wanted Ukraine to win the war.