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August 23, 2024

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Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends campaign

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Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on Friday dropped his White House bid and announced support for former President Donald Trump, issuing broadsides against the Democratic Party’s handling of the primary election and media censorship.

‘…I’ve made the heart-wrenching decision to suspend my campaign and to support President Trump. This decision is agonizing for me because of the difficulties it causes me, and my children and my friends,’ said Kennedy.

Kennedy charged in an event in Phoenix, Arizona that the Democratic Party ‘waged continual legal warfare against both President Trump and myself,’ and ‘ran a sham primary.’

‘In an honest system, I believe I would have won the election,’ he argued. ‘I no longer believe that I have a realistic past of electoral victory in the face of this relentless, systematic censorship and media control.’

Kennedy’s campaign is asking swing states to remove his name from the ballot because he does not want to be a ‘spoiler,’ he said. He will remain on the ballot in states that he considers ‘red’ or ‘blue,’ he said. ‘If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me without harming or helping President Trump or or Vice President Harris,’ Kennedy said. ‘In red states, the same will apply.’

The former Democrat spoke a couple of hours before Trump was scheduled to hold a campaign event in nearby Glendale, Arizona. The Trump campaign on Thursday advertised that the former president would be joined by a ‘special guest,’ which further sparked speculation of a Kennedy endorsement of the Republican 2024 presidential nominee.

The announcement ends the presidential run by the longtime environmental activist and high-profile vaccine skeptic, who is the scion of the nation’s most storied political dynasty.

Kennedy launched his long-shot campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination in April of last year, but last October the 70-year-old candidate switched to an independent run for the White House.

While Kennedy had long identified as a Democrat and repeatedly invoked his late father Sen. Robert F. Kennedy and his uncle, President John F. Kennedy, who were both assassinated in the 1960s, Kennedy in recent years has built relationships with leaders on the right. Kennedy repeatedly invoked his father and uncle Friday in Phoenix.

President Biden’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee for months repeatedly slammed Kennedy as a potential spoiler whose supporters could hand Trump a presidential election victory in November.

 

But Kennedy remained a thorn in Biden’s side from last year through the president’s announcement last month that he was ending his re-election bid and endorsing Harris.

According to Kennedy, ‘Vice President Harris declined to meet or even to speak with me.’

The Trump campaign, which had cheered on Kennedy when he was running against Biden as a Democrat, also started taking aim at him after he switched to an independent run, labeling him a member of the ‘radical left,’ and criticizing him for his environmental activism.

Kennedy described the modern Democratic Party as ‘the party of war, censorship, corruption, big pharma, big tech, big ag, and big money.’

‘The DNC waged continual legal warfare against both President Trump and myself,’ said Kennedy. ‘Each time that our volunteers turned in those towering boxes of signatures needed to get on the ballot, the DNC dragged us into court, state after state, attempting to erase their work and disappear with the will of the voters, which signed those petitions.’ 

‘It deployed DNC-aligned judges to throw me and other candidates off the ballot, and to throw President Trump in jail.’

The Kennedy-Shanahan ticket has faced uphill battles nationwide to earn a spot on the presidential ballot in November. New York State recently blocked ballot access to the independent campaign altogether on August 12.

According to running mate Nicole Shanahan, the campaign is facing no fewer than nine lawsuits from the Democratic Party. The campaign faces uphill legal climbs with suits in Nevada, North Carolina, Delaware and New Jersey. Trump, Shanahan said, faces 6 legal battles brought on by Democrats at the same time. 

And the DNC battled Kennedy and his supporters at nearly every step as he worked to place his name on the ballot in all 50 states. ‘What the Democrats consider common course to win elections is the kind of ‘normalcy’ that leads to famine, sickness, and civil war. The country is ready for an administration that represents unity,’ Shanahan said in a social media post.

Democrats consistently have attacked both Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as anti-democracy candidates, for which RFK Jr. lambasted them in his remarks Thursday.

‘….Trump won’t hold autocrats accountable — because he wants to be an autocrat,’ said Vice President Harris at the DNC in Chicago.

Following criticisms of Biden’s ‘bullseye’ commentary after the assassination attempt on former President Trump, which the president admitted he should not have said, he claimed ‘I’m not the guy that said, ‘I want to be a dictator on day one.’ I’m not the guy that refused to accept the outcome of the election.’ Biden was referring to a comment in which Trump joked to Fox News’ Sean Hannity that he would be a ‘dictator for one day’ to close the border and ‘drill, baby, drill’ to rebuild America’s energy leadership. Biden enacted dozens of executive orders during his first days in office on both the border and energy. 

The relationship between Kennedy and Trump started warming earlier this year, and the two spoke last month after the assassination attempt against Trump and met in person the following day. 

‘In a series of long, intense discussions, I was surprised to discover that we are aligned on many key issues and those meetings,’ said Kennedy of the meetings.

Earlier this week, Kennedy running mate Nicole Shanahan sparked headlines by saying in a podcast interview that the campaign was considering whether to ‘join forces’ with Trump to prevent the possibility of Vice President Kamala Harris winning the 2024 election.

‘If he endorsed me, I would be honored by it. I would be very honored by it. He really has his heart in the right place,’ Trump said on Thursday in an interview on ‘Fox & Friends.’

And the former president’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, said Wednesday in an interview on ‘Fox & Friends’ that he hoped Kennedy ‘endorses the president, gets on the team, because this is about saving the country.’

Kennedy’s departure from the race comes as his campaign was cratering.

The last public event put on by his campaign came on July 9, in Freeport, Maine. But even before that, his poll numbers – which once stood in the teens – had faded.

The most recent Fox News national poll, conducted August 9-12, indicated Kennedy at 6% support. 

His fundraising was also in a free fall, with campaign finance reports indicating he had just $3.9 million cash on hand as of the start of July, with nearly $3.5 million in debt.

‘The more voters learned about RFK Jr. the less they liked him. Donald Trump isn’t earning an endorsement that’s going to help build support, he’s inheriting the baggage of a failed fringe candidate. Good riddance,’ said DNC Senior Advisor Mary Beth Cahill following Kennedy’s speech.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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Top Ten Charts for August: Two Bearish Turnaround Plays

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In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave completes a five-part series covering ten charts to watch in August 2024, breaking down to stocks in established downtrends. What would we need to see to confirm a rotation from a distribution phase to an accumulation phase, and where should you set alerts for key charts on your watch list?

This video originally premiered on August 23, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

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RRG-Velocity jumping on XLF tail

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On the weekly Relative Rotation Graph, the rotation still favors almost every sector over Technology. I discussed the opposite rotations between weekly and daily RRGs in last week’s video, which you can find here.

Real Estate

Working off this weekly chart, many tails are drawing attention to themselves. First of all, XLRE has the longest tail and is powering into the leading quadrant, showing that there is a lot of strength behind this move.

This is confirmed on the price chart, where XLRE is breaking above horizontal resistance, which frees the way for further appreciation. The next target for XLRE is the peak at 46, which was set in August 2022.

Utilities

The second one is Utilities, whose tail has sharply rotated back up toward the leading quadrant, signaling the start of a new up-leg within the already established relative uptrend.

Utilities broke above horizontal resistance a few weeks ago and managed to hold up well, and they now seem to be accelerating higher, targeting the all-time-high level near 78.

The long downtrend in relative strength has stalled with a potential double bottom in the making. The RRG-Lines are both bottoming out and starting to move higher.

Financials

The financials sector, XLF, is just crossing over into the improving quadrant from lagging as the price is breaking to new all-time highs.

Relative Strength is still captured inside a long trading range but on its way to the upper boundary. That is causing the RRG-Lines to turn back up. JdK RS-Momentum has already exceeded 100, and JdK RS-Ratio is closing in on that level.

What is interesting about this particular tail is that it is getting longer. RRG-velocity* is increasing, which suggests an acceleration of the rotation.

*RRG-Velocity measures the distances between the nodes on a tail. By adding up distances, we can calculate the tail length, and by comparing the different distances, we can evaluate whether the rotation is speeding up or slowing down.

Financial – Industries

The RRG above shows the industries inside the financial sector against the S&P 500 as the benchmark.

The improvement of relative strength is visible in all groups as they are all on a positive RRG-Heading between 0-90 degrees.

We need to change the benchmark to the financial sector index to find the most promising groups.

This gives a more balanced image of the various industries moving around the sector index (XLF). Where all the industries were on a positive RRG-Heading when benchmarked against $SPX, only four remain when using XLF as the benchmark.

Financial Administration

Going over the individual charts of these four groups, I like the one for $DJUSFA – Financial Administration.

This group halved in value from mid-2021 to mid-2022 and then started trading in a range until now. This week, $DJUSFA closed above its previous high, clearing the path for a further rise. This price improvement has also led to an improvement in relative strength, with both RRG lines now rising. This makes it the group that could potentially lead the financials sector in the coming weeks.

This is a small group that holds only four S&P 500 stocks.

Out of these four, when compared to XLF, only FI and GPN show a positive rotation.

Fiserv recently confirmed its uptrend by breaking beyond its most recent peak, around 160, while relative strength seems ready to move out of its trading range.

GPN tested solid support just above 90 twice this year and completed a double bottom from where price is now rallying. The upper boundary of a broad trading range can now be pegged near 140, creating well over 20% upside potential.

#StayAlert and have a great weekend. –Julius

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The SCTR Report: Workday Rises on Strong Earnings Results and Rising Technical Strength

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When a stock surges based on a strong earnings report, analyst upgrade, or other fundamental factors, it’s tempting to jump into the stock. But often, when a stock’s price spikes due to a one-off fundamental event, there’ll be a pullback, one that will present a better technical picture of the stock. For this reason, it’s best to scope out stocks that have the potential to be an attractive investment, and then set an alert for when the price hits a certain threshold.

Workday Inc. Stock Has Potential

The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) ranked Workday Inc. stock as the highest Top Up in the Large Cap category (this can change during the trading day).

STOCKCHARTS SCTR REPORT IDENTIFIES TECHNICALLY STRONG STOCKS.

Workday Stock’s Price Action

The weekly chart of Workday, Inc. (WDAY) below shows the stock has seen pretty choppy action. As a result, WDAY may be an appropriate intermediate-term trade rather than a long-term investment.

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF WORKDAY STOCK. The stock price has broken above its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If an uptrend (series of higher highs and higher lows) is established, the stock could rise as high as $310.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Applying the Fibonacci retracement levels from the most recent low in October 2022 to February 2024 high, WDAY has broken above its 38.2% retracement level. The stock has yet to show an uptrend (series of higher highs and higher lows). Although the relative strength index (RSI) has moved above 50 (lower panel), its SCTR score is relatively low at around 35, though it’s spiking (top panel). The stock has the potential to reach $310; however, there are a few resistance levels along the way WDAY has to overcome.

When Should You Buy WDAY?

The daily chart shows that WDAY broke out of a trading range with a massive upside gap (see chart below). Before the gap, the stock price was at its 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which looked like a strong resistance level. Note the 100-day SMA is trending downward.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF WORKDAY STOCK. The stock price gapped higher on a strong earnings report. Is it enough to push the price higher toward its all-time high?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Had it not been for the strong earnings report, the stock may have fallen. The one-day gap up in price makes it difficult to determine when to enter a long position in WDAY stock. The candlestick bar suggests that the stock is trying to move higher, but faces greater selling pressure. This indicates there could be a pullback in price together with slowing momentum. You want to see momentum increase before buying a stock, so it makes sense to add a momentum indicator, such as the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), to your analysis.

In the daily chart, the MACD line crossed above the signal line (lower panel) and has moved above the zero line. The height of the MACD histogram bars is also increasing. All these point to increasing buying pressure, but it’s in the early stages.

Looking at the overall chart, if WDAY stock price falls and fills the gap, look for an entry point just above the lower blue dashed line as long as the momentum remains strong. If the momentum weakens, there’s no reason to enter a trade.

Conversely, the stock price could continue to rise above the upper blue dashed line. There needs to be an increase in momentum so there’s follow-through in the upside price movement. If accompanied by a rise in the SCTR score above the 70 level, it could make for a profitable position trade, given that WDAY’s stock price could go as high as $310. Always place a stop-loss order a little below your entry price, and if the stock price moves in your favor, use a trailing stop.

When Should You Exit WDAY?

Since this is a position trade, don’t let your emotions get in the way. Any time your entry conditions are violated, exit the trade. There are always opportunities in the stock market. There’s no reason to tie your capital into one trade that’s not going the way you want it to go.

The bottom line. Save WDAY to your ChartList and set an alert for when the SCTR score crosses above 70.

Setting alerts using SCTR is straightforward. Enter the following when creating a new advanced alert:

Alert for WDAY SCTR crossing above 70

[symbol = ‘wday’]

and [sctr > 70]

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Is Peloton Stock the Next Big Turnaround? What You Need to Know Before It’s Too Late

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Peloton’s (PTON) stock soared over 38% on Thursday after the company posted positive free cash flow for the second quarter in a row—a first since 2021. Is the turnaround working? Maybe. But investors aren’t waiting around—they’re hopping on.

Peloton came to my attention while reviewing the Market Movers panel on the StockCharts dashboard on Thursday. Simply put, it’s an easy way to find extraordinary market moves.

We all remember Peloton’s pandemic glory days. But as the world reopened, Peloton’s stock took a nosedive—and the weekly chart below tells the story.

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF PELOTON STOCK. The picture of this massive 97% plunge tells the entire story.

Under new leadership, Peloton crafted a turnaround strategy in 2022. Now, the results are finally rolling in, and the latest earnings hint that the company could be pedaling back into profitability.

Zoom in to a daily chart covering the last nine months, and you’ll see Thursday’s dramatic spike much more clearly. But you’ll also see that Peloton has several technical headwinds on the way up.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF PELOTON. Caution: there’s a lot of resistance above.

Still, if Peloton gets its house in order, this price spike may be the earliest technical entry point for what could be a potential “multi-x” return. Assuming this is the case, what are the levels to watch?

In addition to the daily chart seen above, let’s examine a few important levels from a tactical perspective.

CHART 3. DAILY CHART OF PELOTON WITH ADDED INDICATORS. Notice the rectangle formation, which should provide context in terms of support and resistance.

First, notice the spike in the StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR), from a low 20 to nearly touching the 90 line, which signals bullishness across multiple indicators and timeframes.

Next, look below the chart at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). That, too, jumped to a level higher than the previous nine months, indicating a surge in buying pressure.

Now, look at the price action itself. You can still see the resistance levels above, the first of which ($4.80) price is about to be challenged. Check out the rectangle formation (highlighted in orange). If you’re holding shares, you’re hoping the price doesn’t drop back into the middle—ideally, it’ll bounce off support at the top.

If the price dips, there’s another entry point at the bottom of the formation. With Peloton at its lowest amid a turnaround, a bounce is likely—unless Peloton fumbles the ball, so to speak.

If the price closes below the rectangle, more downside could be in play. How much further down before penny stock territory? It’s anyone’s guess. But now, the rectangle formation may serve as yet another cloud of “technical” resistance following a “fundamental” fail.

At the Close

Peloton is riding that fine line between potential turnaround and pitfall. With some evidence of early success, investors are betting on a multi-x recovery. But technical headwinds loom large ahead of its current breakout. Whether Peloton breaks out or dips back down hinges on its ability to execute its turnaround strategy. Stay sharp—this could be a make-or-break moment and a ground-level market opportunity.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Harris campaign manager ignores press conference question as VP hits 33 days without one

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: Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign manager dodged questions about whether the Democratic presidential nominee would hold a press conference as her presidential bid recently passed one month since being launched. 

Campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez ducked questions from Fox News Digital on Thursday at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, keeping her head down and speeding away when pressed about Harris speaking to the press, which she has been avoiding. 

‘Will Kamala talk to the press? Will she do a press conference?’ Fox News Digital asked Chávez Rodríguez, who is also the granddaughter of labor activist Cesar Chavez. 

‘Will Kamala do a press conference? Will she do a press conference?’ she was asked a total of four times. 

Chavez Rodriguez looked away and rushed to an open door without responding to the queries. 

Harris officially announced her campaign on July 21, following President Biden’s decision to drop out and endorse her as his successor. Since then, 33 days have passed without Harris holding a press conference or sitting down for a news interview. 

Her campaign has remained silent on whether she will hold a press conference prior to the presidential election in 74 days. Early voting begins even sooner, kicking off in just 14 days, meaning there are just two weeks before some voters can cast their ballots without hearing Harris answer difficult questions about her record and policy positions. 

Harris’ campaign website is also devoid of any policy positions. She recently released an economic agenda, which featured a proposal for price controls in the food industry, which was heavily scrutinized. However, no new policy prescriptions were introduced during the DNC this week. 

After being continuously pressed on when she would sit down for an interview, Harris told reporters earlier this month that she wants to get an interview on the schedule by the end of August. A campaign spokesperson repeated this on CNN, claiming last week that they would be doing a sit-down interview by the end of the month. 

However, no such interviews have been announced.

The lack of access to Harris on her presidential campaign could foreshadow what can be expected in terms of transparency out of a Harris and Gov. Tim Walz, D-Minn., administration. 

Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has used Harris’ avoidance of the press as an opportunity to show contrast, holding frequent press conferences and taking questions from reporters. He has further challenged Harris to speak to the press herself. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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White House lawyers who advised Reagan, Bush endorse Harris over Trump in 2024 showdown

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A dozen Republican White House lawyers who served in the administrations of then-Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush are endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris in her race against GOP nominee former President Donald Trump.

‘We endorse Kamala Harris and support her election as President because we believe that returning former President Trump to office would threaten American democracy and undermine the rule of law in our country,’ the lawyers wrote in a letter that the signatories shared first with Fox News Digital.

The letter was released on Friday, the day after Harris delivered her nomination acceptance speech in the culminating moment of the Democratic National Convention, which was held in Chicago.

The signatories added that ‘we urge all patriotic Republicans, former Republicans, conservative and center-right citizens, and independent voters to place love of country above party and ideology and join us in supporting Kamala Harris.’

The list includes Michael Luttig, the prominent right-of-center legal scholar and retired federal appeals court judge who previously served as assistant counsel to the president in the Reagan White House. Luttig made headlines at the start of the week by endorsing Harris as the Democrats’ convention kicked off.

The letter notes, ‘Donald Trump’s own Vice President and multiple members of his Administration and White House Staff at the most senior levels – as well as former Republican nominees for President and Vice President – have already declined to endorse his reelection.’

Those signing the letter pointed to what they called ‘the profound risks presented by his [Trump’s] potential return to public office. Indeed, Trump’s own Attorney General and National Security Adviser have said unequivocally that Donald Trump is unfit for office, dangerous, and detached from reality.’

And pointing to the then-president’s attempts to reverse the results of his 2020 election loss to President Biden, the Republican lawyers argued that ‘Trump’s attempt to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after losing the election proved beyond any reasonable doubt his willingness to place his personal interests above the law and values of our constitutional democracy.’

‘We cannot go along with other former Republican officials who have condemned Trump with these devastating judgments but are still not willing to vote for Harris,’ they added. ‘We believe this election presents a binary choice, and Trump is utterly disqualified.’

And they charged that Trump ‘was guilty of grave wrongdoing to our Constitution, democracy, and rule of law, and who remains unfit, dangerous, and detached from reality.’

Trump’s numerous indictments in four different legal cases dating back to the spring fueled support for him among Republicans as he fended off over a dozen challengers for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.

His fundraising skyrocketed this spring after he was found guilty of all 34 felony counts in the first criminal trial of a former or current president in the nation’s history.

While Trump easily captured the Republican nomination as he cruised through the GOP’s primaries and caucuses, his final rival – former ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley – continued to win up to 20% of the vote in Republican contests long after she dropped out of the race.

President Biden’s campaign – which transformed into the Harris campaign after the president’s blockbuster announcement last month that he was ending his re-election bid – has made efforts for months to court Republican voters disaffected with Trump.

The Harris campaign during the four-day convention in Chicago this week showcased Republicans who are supporting the vice president.

Among them were former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan and former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois.

Trump has dramatically transformed the Republican Party since he first won the GOP nomination and the White House in 2016, turning it from a conservative-dominated party to one where the populist wing of MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters and followers dominate. 

The list of signatories to the letter, besides Luttig, includes (in alphabetical order) John B. Bellinger III, Senior Associate Counsel to the President and Legal Adviser to the NSC under George W. Bush, Phillip D. Brady, Deputy Counsel to the President under Reagan, Benedict S. Cohen, Associate Counsel to the President under Reagan, Peter D. Keisler, Associate Counsel to the President under Reagan, and Robert M. Kruger, Associate Counsel to the President under Reagan.

Also included are John M. Mitnick, Associate Counsel to the President and Deputy Counsel, White House Homeland Security Council under George W. Bush, Alan Charles Raul, Associate Counsel to the President under Reagan and General Counsel, OMB under Reagan and George H.W. Bush, Nicholas Rostow, Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and Legal Adviser to the NSC under Reagan and George H.W. Bush, Peter J. Rusthoven, Associate Counsel to the President under Reagan, David B. Waller, Senior Associate Counsel to the President under Reagan, and Wendell L. Willkie II, Associate Counsel to the President under Reagan.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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Economy

Kamala Harris’ big night helps Democrats reverse their fortunes

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Vice President Kamala Harris gave a ringing speech that fired Democrats up to close the Democratic convention and this more or less picture-perfect convention came to an end. Harris will likely continue to strengthen in the polls as is typical after a convention and there is no doubt that the Democrats are in better shape now than they were if they had kept with President Joe Biden as their candidate. 

More than anything, what Harris has done was to bring back core Democratic constituencies including Black voters, young voters, women and elites and this returned the race to at least even. 

The second thing that the convention did was to make it appear that former President Donald Trump was the incumbent president responsible for the last four years and not the Biden-Harris team. The future is Harris, and the past is Trump in their messaging, and there was little to no attempt to justify the last four years — they simply didn’t exist.  

Perhaps the surprise of the night was Harris’ clear statement that she would defend Israel and would be prepared to defend against Iran. These elements had been missing from virtually every speech at the convention and were absent from Biden’s remarks.  

The huge, feared protests against Israel did not materialize and in their place were a few thousand extremists whose leaders called for the destruction of Israel and who should never have been dignified by Biden. Harris did not repeat that mistake. 

For all the pounding that Trump takes every time he criticizes Harris, the vice president and most of the major speeches attacked Trump in highly personal terms, and frequently distorted his views. The speech called for national unity and then slashed away.  

Trump is not for a national ban on abortion, nor did the Supreme Court issue one. Nor did he support Project 2025. The immigration bill that Trump opposed would allow 5,000 migrants to cross into the United States a day before shutting down the border or allow about 2 million entries a year into the United States, which is about the same as now. 

Other than promising lower prices, Harris did not outline any real plan for dealing with inflation or the economy. Earlier in the day, her campaign said she backed all the Biden tax increases in the budget and then some, which would be the largest tax increase in history, eliminating the capital gains tax, taxing unrealized gains, and moving top federal rates to about 45% with combined rates in big states nearing 60%.  

These massive increases could essentially kill innovation and capital markets, discouraging investments of all types and tanking 401(k)s. 

Harris avoided the issue of energy altogether and left open whether she continues to support the green new deal. She stayed away from divisive social issues, though she clearly rallied women around reproductive freedom.  

‘Coach’ Tim Walz turned out to be more of a liability than an asset as questions about his military record and how far left he really is have emerged to underscore that she likely would have been better off with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, but vice presidents rarely matter that much. 

Trump called into Fox News after the speech, ignoring the rule in politics that you don’t answer artillery with a pop gun, and it underscored the challenge he is facing to get through. 

Just a few weeks ago, the Democrats were facing a death spiral, and Trump was consolidating support nationally. The Democrats have turned it around and installed a new team, new messaging and revived their chances.  

The challenges for the Trump campaign are to define differences in issues and leadership that matter to voters in their everyday lives when it comes to war and peace, inflation, taxes, crime and immigration and to pin Harris as equally responsible for four unhappy years.  

Almost two-thirds of the voters believe the country has been headed in the wrong direction, and oppose open borders, want tougher laws on crime, and believe the administration was responsible for the inflation that is in effect a huge tax increase on all Americans. Nevertheless, the Harris bandwagon rolls on. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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Jackson Hole Jay Doesn’t See His Shadow, Worst Market Weather Behind Us

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It’s been nearly two years since Jackson Hole Jay saw his shadow and we all endured 6 more weeks of harsh market weather. If you need a reminder, August 26, 2022 was the day Fed Chief “Jay” Powell climbed out of his Jackson “Hole” Economic Symposium to announce “more pain ahead!” This is how the stock market weather turned out after Jay saw his shadow in August 2022:

Wall Street was seeing the “light at the end of the tunnel”, while Jackson Hole Jay saw an avalanche from a brutal winter approaching. The bulls sought hibernation for 6 more weeks, while short sellers were skiing the slopes of Colorado. Eventually, all was fine and the secular bull market emerged a bit later than I expected.

Now let’s fast forward to August 2024 and today’s speech. Jackson Hole Jay poked his head out and saw nothing but cloudy skies – no shadow, so potentially a mild market winter ahead. He went back into his Symposium and Wall Street was left feeling like the worst of the market winter was behind it. We know that August/September is not typically kind to market bulls. It’s one of the reasons I’ve been waving that caution flag for the past 5 weeks or so – even longer if we talk only about semiconductors ($DJUSSC). But it’s also difficult to ignore the risks that we could see a melt up – especially in certain areas of the market now that the Fed has FINALLY changed gears. Jackson Hole Jay all but guaranteed the first rate cut in September in what is likely to be a series of rate cuts. Everyone who follows me knows I’m a stock market statistician/historian. I ALWAYS approach August/September with caution, because of historical precedence. But there have been plenty of exceptions where Wall Street ignores those seasonal risks and bids prices higher.

2024 may be one of those years.

Over the coming days, after watching more rotational clues, I will provide our EarningsBeats.com members a game plan to attack the many opportunities ahead. I see certain asset classes and sectors that are likely to outperform, possibly in a very significant way. I see many stocks that are likely to double, triple, possibly more.

Despite the Fed’s much more dovish tone that will benefit U.S. equities, we’ll have HUGE opportunities on pullbacks. And it’s really hard for me to envision a straight-up move in August/September. There’s a chance of that, but much more likely will be the occasional pullbacks that we can use to build positions in key stocks and ETFs that will sweeten our portfolios as equity prices rise in 2024 and 2025.

I will be announcing the 10 equal-weighted stocks that we’ll “draft” into our 3 portfolios – Model, Aggressive, and Income” on Monday, August 26th, at 5:30pm ET. It’ll be designed, hopefully, to take advantage of what’s likely to happen during the balance of Q3 and into Q4. I’ll also be discussing this Fed change in policy and how I believe it’l impact the stock market. You can attend this with a FREE 30-day trial of our service. Be sure to click that link, kick the EB.com tires, and join me on late Monday afternoon. I’d love to see you!

Happy trading!

Tom

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Economy

‘Access granted’: Biden’s free vacation at friend’s California mansion draws ire of critics

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President Biden wants to establish an enforceable ethics code for Supreme Court justices, but the lame-duck president has been criticized over his own apparent conflicts of interest, including his relationship with friend and billionaire donor Joe Kiani.

Following his address at the Democratic National Convention Monday, Biden and his family flew to Santa Ynez, California, to vacation at Kiani’s ranch-style estate. The first family is reportedly staying there for free, said White House officials who described Kiani as a ‘friend,’ according to the New York Post. 

Kiani has given Biden’s super PAC, foundation and inaugural committee nearly $3 million, according to House Republicans who have taken issue with the relationship. Meanwhile, in September 2021, Kiani won an appointment from Biden to sit on his Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, which advises the executive branch on policy matters involving Kiani’s medical tech business, Masimo. Since Biden took office in January 2021, Masimo has received nearly $3 million in federal contracts, according to Republicans. 

In addition to his appointment, Kiani received tickets from Biden in 2022 to attend a state dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron, the Post reported. The outlet said it granted the billionaire CEO access to trans-Atlantic business officials and other global elites.

News of the first family’s vacation at Kiani’s ranch comes amid Democratic efforts to reshape the Supreme Court, including an enforceable ethics code for justices and term limits. These efforts were largely spurred by Justice Clarence Thomas’ relationship with Republican Party donor Harlan Crow. 

Thomas, who has described Crow as one of his family’s ‘dearest friends,’ has been under fire from critics for vacationing with Crow and accepting other gifts from him.

Fox News Digital reached out to the White House for comment but did not receive a response. The U.S. Office of Government Ethics, which oversees executive branch ethics, declined to comment, telling Fox News Digital it does not ‘discuss specific individuals or circumstances.’

‘The self-proclaimed most ethical and transparent administration in history strikes again,’ said Michael Chamberlain, director of the conservative nonprofit Protect the Public’s Trust.

‘The Biden-Harris EPA is already doling out its Greendoggle billions to organizations with ties to the administration and its political allies. Now, we have this type of arrangement with a donor who has business before the government. Seems to be just how things get done in this administration.’ 

In April 2022, a team of 12 House Republicans penned a letter to Shalanda Young, the director of the federal government’s Office of Management and Budget. The letter took issue with Biden’s relationship with Kiani, noting they want to be sure ‘political donations are not unduly influencing the Administration’s management of contracts and loans.’

While the relationship between Kiani and Biden has drawn scrutiny, so have Biden’s relationships with other major Democratic Party big wigs.

A year ago, billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer opened the doors of his Lake Tahoe mansion to the Biden family. Steyer manages a green energy investment fund that’s working to ‘take advantage’ of federal climate change spending provided through Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. 

The Center for Renewing America, a conservative nonprofit, filed an ethics complaint with the Department of Justice in April, calling on it to investigate Biden for alleged ‘serious ethical lapses’ in failing to disclose free vacations that do not appear to qualify under certain exemptions in the Ethics in Government Act (EIGA). The complaint lays out at least four questionable vacations taken by Biden and his family, including the trip to Lake Tahoe.

Other trips mentioned in the complaint include a trip to the South Carolina beachfront mansion of Democratic Party donor Maria Allwin, a stay in Nantucket at private equity founder David Rubenstein’s $39 million mansion and a New Years trip to Bill and Connie Neville’s private Island property in the U.S. Virgin Islands. 

The Nevilles were invited to a 2015 state dinner with Chinese President Xi Jinping around the time they began sharing their house, according to the complaint. Additionally, in December 2022, the same month Biden stayed at their mansion, the Nevilles were White House guests, attending a state dinner with Macron. 

Kendra Arnold, executive director of the nonprofit Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust, asserted Biden’s trip to Kiani’s mansion ‘reinforces the popular notion that individuals who give large amounts of money to politicians are rewarded with increased access and various perks that are unavailable to others.’ 

‘When, like is the case here, there is an apparent circular beneficial relationship, it is difficult to believe that, at a minimum, there has not been increased access granted,’ Arnold concluded. ‘As a rule of thumb, our elected officials are encouraged to even avoid the appearance of conflicts of interest, and, in this case, President Biden has certainly fallen short.’

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